Peace Is Not Enough: The Arab-Israeli Economic and Demographic Crises

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Center for Strategic and International Studies

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Peace is Not Enough: The Arab-Israeli

Economic and Demographic Crises
Part Three:
Role of Women, Impact of Population and

Economic Problems on Per Capita Income,
Land and Water Use, Energy Resources
Anthony H. Cordesman
Co-Director, Middle East Program
February, 1998
Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. Not be copied or excerpted without the written permission
of the author.
Arab-Israeli Trends: Peace is Not Enough 3/2/98 Page 2
Table of Contents
THE ROLE OF WOMEN ................................................................................................................................... 4

GUESSING AT THE EXPECTATIONS OF MIDDLE EASTERN YOUTH: THE ROLE OF WOMEN IN THE WORK FORCE IN 1980
AND 1995 ............................................................................................................................................................... 5
GUESSING AT THE EXPECTATIONS OF MIDDLE EASTERN YOUTH: PROBLEM OF EDUCATION THE CHALLENGE OF
EDUCATIONAL PARITY BETWEEN THE SEXES ............................................................................................................ 6
GUESSING AT THE EXPECTATIONS OF WOMEN: THE MASSIVE GAP BETWEEN THE PERCENTAGE OF WOMEN EDUCATED
AND WOMEN AS A PERCENT OF THE LABOR FORCE ................................................................................................... 7
ARAB-ISRAELI FEMALE LABOR FORCE VS. RATE OF EDUCATION ............................................................................... 8
THE COMBINED IMPACT OF ECONOMIC AND POPULATION PROBLEMS ON PER CAPITA
INCOME .............................................................................................................................................................. 9
THE COMPARATIVE PER CAPITA INCOME OF GIVEN COUNTRIES IS VERY DIFFERENT AND ESTIMATES DIFFER BY
SOURCE ................................................................................................................................................................ 10
GROWTH IN PER CAPITA INCOME BY COUNTRY DURING 1970-1995 WAS POOR AND LAGGED THE WORLD .............. 11
THINGS HAVE GOTTEN BETTER IN THE LAST FEW YEARS: ...................................................................................... 12
RECENT TRENDS BY REGION AND KEY COUNTRY: 1994-1996 - PART ONE.............................................................. 12
THINGS HAVE GOTTEN BETTER IN THE LAST FEW YEARS: ...................................................................................... 13
RECENT TRENDS BY REGION AND KEY COUNTRY: 1994-1996 - PART TWO ............................................................. 13
ARAB-ISRAELI PER CAPITA INCOME IN 1995........................................................................................................... 14
ARAB-ISRAELI PER CAPITA INCOME IN $US-1995................................................................................................... 15
RECENT IMPROVEMENTS HAVE BEEN LIMITED AND HAVE NOT BEEN COMPETITIVE BY WORLD STANDARDS: 1985-
1995 .................................................................................................................................................................... 16
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT HAS TAKEN PLACE RELATIVE TO US LIVING STANDARDS ..................................................... 17
ARAB-ISRAELI ANNUAL AVERAGE GROWTH IN GDP VERSUS POPULATION GROWTH IN PERCENT: 1985-1995........... 18
IMF ESTIMATES OF GDP GROWTH FOR 1995-1997................................................................................................ 19
BY COUNTRY VERSUS POPULATION GROWTH .......................................................................................................... 19
THE EXTREME POVERTY FACTOR: PERCENT OF PEOPLE LIVING ON LESS THAN $1 A DAY ....................................... 20
LAND AND WATER USE ALREADY PRESENT PROBLEMS.................................................................... 21
ARAB-ISRAELI GEOGRAPHY................................................................................................................................... 22
ARAB-ISRAELI BORDERS ....................................................................................................................................... 23
LAND USE BY COUNTRY ........................................................................................................................................ 24
WATER USE BY COUNTRY ..................................................................................................................................... 25
WATER SITUATION BY COUNTRY ........................................................................................................................... 26
ARAB-ISRAELI PER CAPITA USE OF WATER: 1980-1995.......................................................................................... 27
ARAB-ISRAELI USE OF WATER AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL RENEWABLE RESOURCES: 1995.......................................... 28
MENA COUNTRY ACCESS TO SAFE WATER ........................................................................................................... 29
ARAB-ISRAELI SHARE OF WITHDRAWALS OF RENEWABLE WATER RESOURCES BY USER SECTOR IN 1996.................. 30
ARAB-ISRAELI WITHDRAWALS OF RENEWABLE WATER RESOURCES IN 1960, 1990, AND 2025 ................................. 31
ONLY EGYPT AND SYRIA HAVE ENERGY RESOURCES AND THEIR FUTURE IS UNCERTAIN.... 32
COMPARATIVE OIL AND GAS RESERVES ................................................................................................................. 33
DOE/BP ESTIMATE OF PROVEN WORLD OIL AND GAS RESERVES ........................................................................... 34
ENERGY PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY ........................................................................................ 35
COMPARATIVE PRODUCTION OF INDIVIDUAL MIDDLE EASTERN PRODUCERS: 1985-1996 ......................................... 36
Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved.

COMPARATIVE EGYPTIAN AND SYRIAN OIL PRODUCTION: 1985-1996..................................................................... 37

OIL AND PETROLEUM EXPORTS AS A SHARE OF REGIONAL ECONOMIES IN 1993........................................................ 38
LIMITED DEPENDENCE/RETURN ON/FROM REVENUE FROM MINERAL RESOURCES..................................................... 39
ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND IMPORT DEPENDENCE IS A GROWING PROBLEM ........................................................... 40
HIGH RATES OF INCREASED ENERGY USAGE........................................................................................................... 41

Part Fifteen
The Role of Women
• Education of women is not the problem; employment of

women is.
• Gap between education and employment of women
creates serious issue in terms of expectations and hurts
productivity.
• Non-employment + high fertility rate = worse
population problems.
• This + urbanization, exacerbates the infrastructure and
housing problem with large families, over-crowding,
loss of educational standards.
• Urbanization means women are often deprived of
former safety net of extended family.
• Males are slightly under-educated in some countries
adding to the problem.

Guessing at the Expectations of Middle Eastern Youth: The Role of Women in the Work
Force in 1980 and 1995
(Percentage of the Labor Force)
Hi gh Income Nat i ons
East Asi a
Egy pt
Isr ael
J or dan
1980
Lebanon 1995
Sy r i a
0 10 20 30 40 50
Women make up 42% of the labor force in High Income nations, and 45% of the labor force in a high
growth region like East Asia. They are 43% of the labor force in the United States.
Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, Section 2.3.

Guessing at the Expectations of Middle Eastern Youth: Problem of Education The

Challenge of Educational Parity Between the Sexes
(Percentage of the Labor Force)
Hi gh Income Nat i ons
East Asi a
MENA Pr i mar y -
Mal e
Pr i mar y -
Egy pt Femal e
Isr ael
Secondar y
-
Mal eMal e
J or dan
Secondar y
- Femal e
Lebanon
Sy r i a
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Report, 1997, pp. 226-227.

Guessing at the Expectations of Women: The Massive Gap Between the Percentage of
Women Educated and Women as a Percent of the Labor Force
% of
Women
Hi gh Income Nat i ons Reachi ng
Gr ade 4
% of
Women
Enr ol l ed i n
East Asi a Secondar y
School
Women as
% of Labor
For ce
Egy pt
Isr ael
J or dan
Lebanon
Sy r i a
0 20 40 60 80 100
Women make up 42% of the labor force in High Income nations, and 45% of the labor force in a high
growth region like East Asia. They are 43% of the labor force in the United States.
Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, Section 2.3 and 2.8,
and Population Reference Bureau report on Arab World Population.

Arab-Israeli Female Labor Force vs. Rate of Education

( as a Percent of Total: 1995)
Women as Per cent of Tot al Labor For ce Gr oss Femal e Pr i mar y Enr ol l ment
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Egy pt Isr ael J or dan Lebanon Sy r i a West
Bank &
Gaza
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Bank Atlas, 1997, pp. 16-17.

Part Sixteen
The Combined Impact of Economic and Population

Problems on Per Capita Income
• Arab states are part of the ìUndeveloping Worldî in

terms of average personal wealth.
• The data are uncertain, but it is clear that growth has
been low to negative and grossly lacks progress in
developing regions like East Asia and Latin America.
• Major disparities between countries make peace issues
even more difficult.
• Poor pattern of growth from 1970 to 1990.
• Population growth has exceed GDP growth in recent
years.
• Extreme poverty is still a serious problem in Egypt and
Lebanon.

The Comparative Per Capita Income of Given Countries Is Very Different and Estimates
Differ By Source
(Current $US in 1995, Calculated Using the World Bank and CIA Methods)
Egy pt
Isr ael
J or dan
CIA PPP
Lebanon
Wor l d Bank
PPP
Gaza & West Bank Wor l d Bank
Sy r i a
0 5000 10000 15000 20000
Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, Section 1.1, and CIA
on-line edition of the World Factbook, 1996, accessed April 1996.

Growth in Per Capita Income By Country During 1970-1995 Was Poor and Lagged the
World
(Percentage of Average Annual Growth in GNP Per Capita)
Indonesi a
Sout h Kor ea
Hong Kong
Chi na
Egy pt
Isr ael
J or dan
Lebanon
Gaza & West Bank
Sy r i a
0 2 4 6 8 10

Things Have Gotten Better in the Last Few Years:

Recent Trends by Region and Key Country: 1994-1996 - Part One
(Change in Average Percent of Growth or Decline in Per Capita Income in Constant Dollars)

Things Have Gotten Better in the Last Few Years:

Recent Trends by Region and Key Country: 1994-1996 - Part Two
(Change in Average Percent of Growth or Decline in Per Capita Income in Constant Dollars)
1990-1995 1994 1995 1996
Egypt 1.4 2.7 3.2 4.8
Israel - 6.5 6.9 5.7
Jordan 2.4 5.9 6.4 6.5
Syria 4.2 - - -
Middle East - 0.7 3.7 3.1
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank for 1990-1995, and from IMF, World Economic Outlook, May,
1996, p. 24 for 1994, 1995, and 1996.

Arab-Israeli Per Capita Income in 1995

($US 1995)
18000
16000
Dol l ar Measur e
Pur chasi ng Pow er Par i t y Measur e
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Egy pt Isr ael J or dan Lebanon Sy r i a West MENA East
Bank & Asi a &
Gaza Paci f i c
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Bank Atlas, 1997, pp. 36-37, and World
Development Report, 1997, pp. 214-215 .

Arab-Israeli Per Capita Income in $US-1995
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Egy pt Isr ael J or dan Lebanon Sy r i a Gaza West
Bank
PCI/PPP 2,760 15,500 4,700 4,900 5,900 1,200 2,500
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from CIA, World Factbook, 1996, April, 1997, CD ROM.

Recent Improvements Have Been Limited and Have Not Been Competitive by World
Standards: 1985-1995
(Arab-Israeli Annual Average Growth in Per Capita Income in Percent)
0
Egy pt Isr ael J or dan Lebanon Sy r i a MENA East
A si a
-2
-4
-6
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Report, 1997, pp. 248.

Little Improvement Has Taken Place Relative to US Living Standards

(Percent of US Per Capita Income Measured in Purchasing Power Parity Terms)
70
60
1987 1995
50
40
30
20
10
0
Bank &
Gaza
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Report, 1997, pp. 214-215 .

Arab-Israeli Annual Average Growth in GDP versus Population Growth in Percent: 1985-
1995
+0.4
0
Bank &
-0.2
-1.1 Gaza
-2
-2.1
-4
GDP
Popul at i on Gr ow t h
Net Dev el opment
-6
-8 -7.5

IMF Estimates of GDP Growth for 1995-1997

by Country versus Population Growth
(Percent of Growth in GDP in Current $US Calculated Using the IMF Method)
Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from IMF and Middle East Economic Digest, May 16, 1997, p. 3.

The Extreme Poverty Factor: Percent of People Living on Less Than $1 A Day
(As a Percent of Total measured in PPP Terms: 1995)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Bank &
Gaza
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Bank Development Report, 1997, pp. 214-
216.

Part Seventeen
Land and Water Use Already Present Problems
• Agriculture is a dead end. Increases in productivity will

be offset by need to reduce water use.
• Increases in productivity will not take place without
massively disruptive economic reform, flight from land,
and conversion to market prices.
• Water issues cannot be solved by either war or
reallocation. Only major structural reform to reduce use
of water in agriculture can solve problem.
• Urban use of water will present growing cost and
infrastructure problem. Water must be market priced to
deal with issue.
• Many countries trying to solve problem with fantasy can
keep or get neighbor's water -- an illusion that defers
real world solutions to issue.

Arab-Israeli Geography
(Total Territory in Square Kilometers)
1, 200, 000
1, 000, 000
800, 000
600, 000
400, 000
200, 000
0
Egy pt I sr ael J or dan Lebanon Sy r i a Gaza West Bank
Area in Square Kilometers

Total 1,001,450 20,700 89,213 10,400 185,180 360 5,860
Land 995,450 20,330 88,884 10,230 184,050 360 5,640
Irrigated 25,850 2,140 570 860 10,000 115 -
Land Use in %
Arable 3 17 4 21 28 13 27
Permanent
Crops 2 5 0.5 9 3 32 0
Meadows &
Pastures 0 40 1 1 46 0 32
Forest 0 6 0.5 8 3 0 1
Other 95 32 94 61 20 55 40

Arab-Israeli Borders
(Total Length Kilometers)
3, 000
2, 500
2, 000
1, 500
1, 000
500
0
Eg y p t I s r ael J or dan Lebanon Sy r i a Ga z a We s t
B a nk
Land Boundaries in Kilometers

Egypt - 255 - - - 11 -
Gaza 11 51 - - - - -
Israel 255 - 238 79 76 51 307
Iraq - - 181 - 605 - -
Jordam - 238 - - 375 - 97
Lebanon - 79 - - 375 - -
Libya 1,150 - - - - - -
Saudi Arabia - - 728 - - - -
Sudan 1,273 - - - - - -
Syria - 76 375 375 - - -
Turkey - - - - 822 - -
West Bank - 307 97 - - - -
Total 2,689 1,006 1,619 454 2,253 62 404
Coastline 2,450 273 26 225 193 40 -
Maritime Claims in Kilometers

Continguous 38.4 - - - 41 - -
Territorial 15.2 15.2 4.8 15.2 35 - -

Land Use by Country
Country Land Area Rural Land Use Forest

1,000s % Population Cropland as Permanent Other Area
Sq. Km Arable Density % of Land Area Pasture % of Land in 1000s
1994 1994 (Pop/Sq. Km) 80 94 as % of Area of Sq.
Land Area 80 94 Kilometers
80 94
Egypt 995 3 1912 2 4 9 9 98 96 0
Israel 21 17 - 20 21 6 7 74 72 1
Jordan 89 4 374 4 5 9 9 87 87 1
Lebanon 10 21 245 30 30 1 1 69 69 1
Syria 184 26 134 31 30 46 45 24 25 7

Water Use by Country
Country Freshwater Annual Freshwater Withdrawals Access to Safe

Resources billions % of % of % of % of Water as % of
in Cubic of Total Agriculture Industry Domestic Population in 1993
Meters cubic Resources Urban Rural
Per Capita meters
in 1995
Egypt 1,005 56.4 97.1 85 9 6 95 74
Israel 398 1.9 84.1 79 5 16 100 85
Jordan 332 0.5 32.1 65 6 29 98 94
Lebanon 1,199 0.8 15.6 85 4 11 98 98
Syria 2,516 3.3 9.4 83 10 7 95 77

Water Situation by Country
Country Renewable Resources Per Capita Share of Withdrawals

(Cubic Meters Per Year) (Percent)
1960 1990 2025 Domestic Industry Agriculture
North Africa
Egypt 2,251 1,112 645 7 5 88
Levant
Israel 1,025 467 311 16 5 79
Jordan 529 224 91 29 6 65
Lebanon 2,000 1,407 809 11 4 85
Malta 100 75 75 76 8 16
Syria 1,196 439 161 7 10 83
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from Middle East Economic Digest, March 1, 1996, p. 2 and January
24, 1997, p. 8; and from World Resources Institute and World Bank estimates.

Arab-Israeli Per Capita Use of Water: 1980-1995

(Cubic Meters per Capita)
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Bank &
Gaza

Arab-Israeli Use of Water as a Percent of Total Renewable Resources: 1995
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Bank &
Gaza
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Bank Atlas, 1997, pp. 26-27. Note that data
for Jordan, Lebanon and Syria are highly political and include water resources now used by other countries.

MENA Country Access to Safe Water

(Percent of Population)
Egy pt
Rur al
Isr ael
Ur ban
J or dan
Lebanon
Sy r i a
0 20 40 60 80 100
Note: Data are extremely unreliable.
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, 3.3.

Arab-Israeli Share of Withdrawals of Renewable Water Resources by User Sector in 1996

(Annual fresh water withdrawals in Percentage of End Use)
90
Domest i c Indust r y Agr i cul t ur e
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Egy pt Isr ael J or dan Lebanon Sy r i a Mi ddl e
Income
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from Middle East Economic Digest, March 1, 1996, p. 2 and January
24, 1997, p. 8; and from World Resources Institute and World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, 3.3.

Arab-Israeli Withdrawals of Renewable Water Resources in 1960, 1990, and 2025

(Annual fresh water withdrawals Per Capita in Cubic Meters Per Year)
2500
1960 1990 2025
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Egy pt Isr ael J or dan Lebanon Sy r i a
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from Middle East Economic Digest, March 1, 1996, p. 2, and January
24, 1997, p. 8; and from World Resources Institute and World Bank estimates.

Part Eighteen
Only Egypt and Syria have Energy Resources and

Their Future is Uncertain
• Oil wealth does not affect region, although oil and gas
help Egypt and Syria.
• Egypt has gas resources to offset decline of oil
production; Syria is likely to experience serious
production drops without replacement.
• High rates of growth in domestic demand for energy
present serious import, infrastructure, and
environmental problems.
• Development and population growth will more than
offset Egypt's probable growth in hydroelectric, gas,
and oil.
• Other countries will have to increase imports sharply.
• Combination of population growth and development
could compound increases in energy demand.

Comparative Oil and Gas Reserves
DOE Estimate of Comparative Oil and Gas Reserves of Middle Eastern States As of January, 1995
Country Crude Oil (Billion Barrels) Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet)
Oil & Gas Journal World Oil Oil & Gas Journal World Oil
Middle East 660.3 597.6 1,594.3 1,389.7
Total Africa 62.2 72.8 341.6 316.6

Algeria 9.2 10.2 128.0 102.0
Egypt 3.3 3.4 19.3 21.0
Libya 22.8 36.6 45.8 45.2
Tunisia 0.4 0.3 1.1 1.2
BP Estimate of Recent Trends in Middle Eastern Oil Reserves and Production
Average Daily Production Reserves of Crude Oil in Regional Share of Reserve to

(1,000s of Barrels Per Day) Billions of Barrels MENA Total Production
1994 1995 1996 end-1994 end-1995
Ratio
Algeria 755 767 815 9.2 9.2 1.3 20.5
Egypt 920 930 860 3.3 3.9 0.6 11.8
Libya 1,415 1,420 - 22.8 29.5 4.2 57.5
Tunisia 90 95 95 0.4 0.4 0.06 12.7
Syria 610 565 610 2,5 2,5 0.4 11.2
UAE 2,485 2,485 2,200 98.1 98.1 0.14 100+
Yemen 335 335 340 4.0 4.0 0.6 32.9
Other 55 55 - - - - -
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from the British Petroleum Annual Yearbook, and MEED, January 17, 1997, p. 17.

DOE/BP Estimate of Proven World Oil and Gas Reserves

Country Crude Oil (Billion Barrels) Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet)
Oil & Gas Journal World Oil BP Oil & Gas Journal World Oil BP
Middle East 660.3 597.6 1,594.3 1,389.7 -

Bahrain 0.2 0.1 - 5.3 5.6 -
Iran 89.3 58.7 88.2 741.8 620.0 -
Iraq 100.0 99.4 100.0 109.5 108.0 -
Kuwait 96.5 97.7 96.5 52.9 51.1 -
Oman 4.8 5.0 5.1 22.2 25.3 -
Qatar 3.7 4.9 3.7 250.0 164.4 -
Saudi Arabia 261.2 262.5 262.1 185.9 189.0 -
Syria 2.5 2.7 2.5 7.0 7.0 -
UAE 98.1 63.4 98.1 204.8 198.7 -
Yemen 4.0 3.4 4.0 15.0 15.0 -
Other 0.0 0.0 - 0.2 0.2 -
Total Africa 62.2 72.8 - 341.6 316.6 -

Algeria 9.2 10.2 9.2 128.0 102.0 -
Egypt 3.3 3.4 3.9 19.3 21.0 -
Libya 22.8 36.6 29.6 45.8 45.2 -
Tunisia 0.4 0.3 0.4 1.1 1.2 -
Sub-Total 36.2 50.5 - 184.2 169.4 -
Angola 5.4 2.0 - 1.8 2.0 -
Cameroon 0.4 0.3 - 3.9 3.9 -
Congo 0.6 0.6 - 2.7 2.7 -
Nigeria 17.9 17.2 - 120.0 120.8 -
North America 78.3 78.1 - 312.7 312.4 -

US 22.5 22.5 - 163.8 163.8 -
Central & South

America 78.3 82.0 - 189.1 204.4 -
Western Europe 16.6 35.5 - 194.3 271.9 -
FSU & E. Europe 59.0 192.4 - 1,998.0 1,951.8 -

FSU 57.0 191.1 - 1,977.0 1,937.0 -
Far East and Oceania 44.5 52.9 - 350.8 309.0 -

Australia 1.6 1.9 - 19.8 20.8 -
Brunei 1.4 1.2 - 14.0 12.9 -
China 24.0 30.2 - 59.0 45.5 -
India 5.8 5.8 - 25.0 24.2 -
Indonesia 5.8 5.8 - 25.0 24.2 -
Malaysia 4.3 5.1 - 64.4 64.9 -
New Zealand 0.1 0.1 - 3.0 2.9 -
Pakistan 0.2 0.2 - 27.5 21.1 -
Papua New Guinea 0.2 0.2 - 3.0 2.9 -
Thailand 0.2 0.2 - 0.2 5.9 -
Other 0.8 1.5 - 49.0 30.0
World 999.3 1,111.3 - 4,981.7 4,749.8 -
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from material provided by DOE/EIA International Energy Review, 1996, pp. 292-
294, and British Petroleum, as quoted in MEED, January 17, 1997, p. 17.

Energy Production and Consumption by Country
Country Commercial Commercial Energy Use Traditional Electricity

Production MTOE % Ave. Annual Kg. of Oil Fuel as % Production
in MTOE Growth Equi Per Capita of Use in in KwH
80 94 80 94 80 94 80 94 1993 per Capita
Egypt 33,374 60,931 15,176 34,071 7.2 2.7 371 600 3.2 915
Israel 151 531 8,616 14,624 4.5 5.9 2,222 2,717 0.0 4,713
Jordan 0 179 1,710 4,306 5.8 6.4 784 1,067 0.0 1,259
Lebanon 73 70 2,376 3,790 -0.8 14.0 840 964 3.4 1,318
Libya 96,537 74,658 7,122 13,039 4.4 3.2 2,340 2,499 - 3,411
Syria 9,495 31,474 5,343 13,675 6.7 4.4 614 997 0.0 1,107

Comparative Production of Individual Middle Eastern Producers: 1985-1996

(Thousands of Barrels Per Day of Crude Oil, NGL, and Refined Products)
90 00
80 00
70 00
60 00
5 00 0
Saudi
4 00 0 Ir an
UAE
3 00 0 Kuw ai t
Li by a
2 00 0 Al ger i a
Sy r i a
1 00 0 Egy pt
Oman
0
Ir aq
1 98 5
1 98 7 Qat ar
1 98 9
1 99 1
19 93
19 95
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from EIA, International Energy Outlook, 1997, DOE/EIA-0484 (97),
April 1997, pp. 157-160, and EIA, Monthly Energy Review, April, 1997, pp. 130-131.

Comparative Egyptian and Syrian Oil Production: 1985-1996

(Thousands of Barrels Per Day of Crude Oil, NGL, and Refined Products)
1600
Sy r i a
Egy pt
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from EIA, International Energy Outlook, 1997, DOE/EIA-0484 (97),
April 1997, pp. 157-160, and EIA, Monthly Energy Review, April, 1997, pp. 130-131.

Oil and Petroleum Exports as a Share of Regional Economies in 1993
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, Claiming the Future, pp. 16-18.

Limited Dependence/Return on/from Revenue from Mineral Resources

(Revenue from Mineral Resources as a Percent of Total Government and Export Revenue 1993-1994)
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from IMF, World Economic Outlook, May 1996, p. 98.

Energy Consumption and Import Dependence is a Growing Problem

(Per Capita Use of Oil Equivalents in Kilograms)
3000
1980 1994
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Bank
and
Gaza
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Report, 1997, pp. 228-229.

High Rates of Increased Energy Usage

(Average Annual Growth Rate: 1980-1994)
14
12
10
0
Egy pt Isr ael J or dan Lebanon Sy r i a West Hi gh
Bank Income
and
Gaza
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Report, 1997, pp. 228-229.

Peace Is Not Enough: The Arab-Israeli Economic and Demographic Crises

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CSIS_______________________________

Center for Strategic and International Studies

Peace is Not Enough: The Arab-Israeli

Role of Women, Impact of Population and

THE ROLE OF WOMEN ................................................................................................................................... 4

Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved.

COMPARATIVE EGYPTIAN AND SYRIAN OIL PRODUCTION: 1985-1996..................................................................... 37

Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved.

The Role of Women

• Education of women is not the problem; employment of

Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved.

Hi gh Income Nat i ons

Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved.

Guessing at the Expectations of Middle Eastern Youth: Problem of Education The

Hi gh Income Nat i ons

Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved.

Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved.

Arab-Israeli Female Labor Force vs. Rate of Education

Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved.

The Combined Impact of Economic and Population

• Arab states are part of the ìUndeveloping Worldî in

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Gaza & West Bank Wor l d Bank

0 5000 10000 15000 20000

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Gaza & West Bank

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Things Have Gotten Better in the Last Few Years:

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Things Have Gotten Better in the Last Few Years:

1990-1995 1994 1995 1996

Egypt 1.4 2.7 3.2 4.8

Israel - 6.5 6.9 5.7

Jordan 2.4 5.9 6.4 6.5

Middle East - 0.7 3.7 3.1

Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved.

Arab-Israeli Per Capita Income in 1995

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Arab-Israeli Per Capita Income in $US-1995

PCI/PPP 2,760 15,500 4,700 4,900 5,900 1,200 2,500

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Little Improvement Has Taken Place Relative to US Living Standards

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Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved.

IMF Estimates of GDP Growth for 1995-1997

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Land and Water Use Already Present Problems

• Agriculture is a dead end. Increases in productivity will

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Area in Square Kilometers

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Land Boundaries in Kilometers

Coastline 2,450 273 26 225 193 40 -

Maritime Claims in Kilometers

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Land Use by Country

Country Land Area Rural Land Use Forest

Egypt 995 3 1912 2 4 9 9 98 96 0

Syria 184 26 134 31 30 46 45 24 25 7

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Water Use by Country