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Seismic fragility and vulnerability curves for the Italian residential building
stock

Article  in  Structure and Infrastructure Engineering · June 2021

DOI: 10.1080/15732479.2021.1936568

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Angelo Anelli Federico Mori

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STRUCTURE AND INFRASTRUCTURE ENGINEERING
https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2021.1936568

Seismic fragility and vulnerability curves for the Italian residential

building stock
Angelo Anelli , Federico Mori and Massimiliano Moscatelli
Italian National Research Council – IGAG, Montelibretti, Rome, Italy

ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY

In Italy, the recent regulatory and legislative developments relevant to the seismic risk mitigation of Received 12 September 2020
the existing building stock aim to propose tax deductions and simple but reliable approaches for the Revised 17 January 2021
quantitative evaluation of the beneficial impacts of seismic retrofitting. Nevertheless, currently policy Accepted 17 February 2021
makers need tools and models able to assess the seismic risk and the cost/benefit of the strengthen-
KEYWORDS
ing interventions at regional/national level in order to plan future mitigation policies and be aware of Buildings; residential;
the effectiveness of measures taken. To this aim, this article proposes a heuristic vulnerability model concrete structures; damage
for large-scale applications. Starting from macroseismic approaches widely used in Europe, fragility assessment; decision
and vulnerability curves for masonry and RC buildings are calibrated using a specific procedure based support systems; masonry;
on the new Italian ‘guidelines for the seismic risk classification of constructions’ approved in January reliability & risk analysis;
2020, namely the so-called ‘Sisma Bonus.’ According to the construction material, building type and risk management; seismic
number of floors, the developed curves are defined in terms of vulnerability and height classes. The engineering
derived vulnerability model can be used in exposure models which rely on poor census data. Finally,
it is compared with existing vulnerability models and the comparisons are analysed to demonstrate
the effectiveness of the proposed model.

1. Introduction approaches combine the previous three approaches (e.g.

Seismic risk is obtained by the convolution of three main
components: exposure, hazard and vulnerability. In recent
years, several scientific studies have integrated these compo-
nents in order to evaluate seismic loss and define resilient
mitigation strategies (e.g. Anelli, Santa-Cruz, Vona, Tarque,
& Laterza, 2019; Anelli, Vona, & Santa-Cruz, 2020).
However, vulnerability still plays a key role in seismic risk
analysis and resilience of urban systems.
Fragility and vulnerability curves are essential tools for
assessing the physical vulnerability of existing constructions
in seismic prone areas. Although these curves can be inter-
preted in different ways, they give the fundamental connec-
tion between the seismic hazard at the site and the
corresponding effects on the exposed structural and non-
structural elements. The curves can be generated using ana-
lytical, empirical, expert judgment elicitation, and hybrid
approaches (Maio & Tsionis, 2016). Analytical approaches
analyse the seismic response of structures by means of
numerical or mechanical models (e.g. Vona, Manganelli,
Tataranna, & Anelli, 2018). Empirical approaches are based
on the treatment of damage observation data collected in
post-earthquake surveys (e.g. Rosti, Rota, & Penna, 2020).
Expert judgment elicitation approaches combine expert
opinions to estimate expected damage and/or its effects (e.g.
Applied Technology Council (ATC), 1985). Finally, hybrid
Rossetto, D’Ayala, Ioannou, & Meslem, 2014).
Fragility curves estimate the probability of exceeding a
given damage state or performance level under seismic
action. Mathematically, they are usually described by a log-
normal cumulative distribution functions having a median
value and logarithmic standard deviation. Recently, fragility
curves have also been developed to assess the probability
that a road is open or closed to the transit of emergency
vehicles after debris fall (Anelli, Mori, & Vona, 2020).
Vulnerability curves express the relationship between the
damage factor (DF) and the selected ground motion param-
eter. This DF represents the expected repair cost expressed
as a fraction of the building replacement cost. It allows to
take into account the direct economic loss (physical dam-
age) of the structural and non-structural components.
Several studies were carried out for assessing seismic risk of
residential buildings in the Italian context (e.g. Crowley et al.,
2009; Hofer, Zanini, & Gardoni, 2020; Rota, Penna, Strobbia,
& Magenes, 2011; Zanini, Hofer, & Pellegrino, 2019). For this
purpose, in 2018, the Italian Civil Protection Department
(DPC) produced a National Risk Assessment (NRA) document
(DPC–Italian Civil Protection Department, 2018) with the
important support of six research groups active in the seismic
engineering field. They generated various exposure and vulner-
ability models defined in terms of vulnerability and height
classes. These models were collected in the Italian Risk Maps
(IRMA) platform, which allows to define damage scenarios

CONTACT Angelo Anelli angelo.anelli@igag.cnr.it

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