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United Spirits
United Spirits
United Spirits
BSE SENSEX S&P CNX
59,885 17,823 CMP: INR829 TP: INR975 (+18%) BUY
Recovery evident, longer term prospects remain attractive
We interacted with the management of United Spirits (UNSP) for an
Stock Info update on overall market conditions. Here are the key takeaways:
Bloomberg UNSP IN Recovery has been strong in recent months, with on-trade re-opening and off
Equity Shares (m) 727 trade demand remaining healthy. Especially heading into 3QFY22 (a
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 602.6 / 8.2
historically important quarter for spirit consumption), the recovery is
52-Week Range (INR) 843 / 494
encouraging.
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 10/30/4
12M Avg Val (INR M) 1470 The ‘strategy refresh’ to be highlighted by the new CEO in its 2QFY22 result
Free float (%) 43.2 could entail positives on topline growth, an area where UNSP has lagged
expectations, even as it has done a commendable job on margin expansion
Financials & Valuations (INR b) and deleveraging.
Y/E March 2021 2022E 2023E
Sales 78.9 91.8 100.9
Activation of the Scotch portfolio in ~2,000 outlets across India, resulted in
Sales Gr. (%) -13.2 16.3 10.0 better availability and wider range in these outlets. This could result in healthy
EBITDA 9.9 13.4 16.7 demand for BIO and BII Scotch, when overseas travel and higher duty free
EBITDA mrg. (%) 12.5 14.6 16.5
sales (booked as part of Diageo global revenues) resume.
Adj. PAT 4.6 8.1 10.6
Adj. EPS (INR) 6.4 11.1 14.6 We maintain our Buy rating on the stock.
EPS Gr. (%) -41.6 75.2 31.2 Demand recovery on track
BV/Sh.(INR) 56.8 67.7 79.3
Ratios For UNSP, the recovery after the second COVID wave has been faster than
RoE (%) 11.2 16.4 18.4 that after the first wave. Around 70% of outlets were operational till mid-
RoCE (%) 16.8 22.1 24.8 Aug’21.
Payout (%) 0.0 0.0 20.5
On-premise has been operating at full capacity since mid-Aug’21, with pre-
Valuations
P/E (x) 130.5 74.5 56.8 COVID footfalls, wherever access has been permitted by regulatory state
P/BV (x) 14.6 12.2 10.5 bodies.
EV/EBITDA (x) 61.5 45.1 36.1
While the recovery in on-trade channels has been good, night/weekend
Shareholding pattern (%) curfews and restricted timings are affecting sales, with last orders being
As On Jun-21 Mar-21 Jun-20 accepted at 8-9pm in select geographies.
Promoter 56.8 56.8 56.8 Off-trade has also done well as home occasions and celebrations pick up.
DII 9.9 9.7 9.4
Muted global travel has acted as a tailwind rather than a headwind as it led to
FII 19.0 18.9 19.7
Others 14.3 14.7 14.2
duty-free demand converting to duty paid. The management is focusing on
FII Includes depository receipts the modern off-trade channel to cater to this demand. It activated 2,000
outlets for Scotch over the last one year. Due to this initiative, it expects a
Stock Performance (1-year)
significant part of this demand to sustain once overseas travel returns to
United Spirits
normalcy.
Sensex - Rebased
910 Focus on the margin accretive Scotch portfolio
770 Black Dog is now available in 3-5 markets.
630 The relaunched Signature, which was present only in West Bengal, Haryana,
490
and Telangana, will be present in 70% of the country over the next 2-3
months.
350
The Scotch portfolio is hugely gross profit accretive. The cash conversion cycle
Nov-20
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-20
Sep-21
Jan-21
Mar-21
is also better at 75-90 days v/s 120-130 days for the overall portfolio.
RoCE is highly accretive for bottled in origin (BIO) Scotch.
At present, Scotch contributes 5-6% of overall sales by volume.
The strategic review of the Popular portfolio is on track.
Krishnan Sambamoorthy – Research analyst (Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com)
Research analyst: Dhairya Dhruv (Dhairya.Dhruv@motilaloswal.com) / Kaiwan Jal Olia (kaiwan.o@motilaloswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
United Spirits
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United Spirits
1,633
Aug-16
Dec-16
Apr-17
Aug-17
Dec-17
Apr-18
Aug-18
Dec-18
Apr-19
Aug-19
Dec-19
Apr-20
Aug-20
Dec-20
Apr-21
Aug-21
May-17
May-18
May-19
May-20
May-21
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Jan-21
Sep-21
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Dec-17
Dec-12
Dec-17
Sep-11
Sep-16
Mar-19
Sep-21
Sep-11
Sep-16
Sep-21
Mar-14
Jun-15
Jun-20
Mar-14
Jun-15
Mar-19
Jun-20
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
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United Spirits
Story in charts
Exhibit 5: Expect revenue to grow at 9.6% CAGR over
FY21-24E Exhibit 6: Expect gross margin to expand by 410bp
Revenue incldg. OOI (INR b) Revenue growth (%)
Gross margin (%)
16.3
12.6 48.6 48.8
9.9 10.0 44.8 43.4 44.1 46.0 47.5
79 40.0 41.3 42.9
3.7 3.6
1.2
(5.6) (4.4)
(13.2)
80 82 85 82 90 91 92 101 114
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY23E
FY22E
FY24E
FY18
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY23E
FY22E
FY24E
Source: Company, MOFSL Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 7: Expect EBITDA to grow at 20% CAGR over Exhibit 8: Expect adjusted PAT to grow at 30.9% CAGR over
FY21-24E FY21-24E
EBITDA (INR b) EBITDA growth (%) Adj. PAT (INR b) Adj. PAT growth (%)
33.2 35.6 87.1
25.2 24.3 22.8 75.2
17.1 10
9.5 5.9 38.1
26.1 5 31.2 27.8
(13.1) (34.5) 16.9
8.1
(10.4)
(41.6)
7 9 10 10 13 15 13 17 20 2 2 4 5 7 8 8 11 14
FY18
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY23E
FY22E
FY24E
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22E
FY23E
FY24E
Source: Company, MOFSL Source: Company, MOFSL
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United Spirits
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United Spirits
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United Spirits
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