20517-Draft 456 140415

Addis Ababa Water and Sewerage Authority
Water and Sanitation Development and

Rehabilitation Project Office
CONSULTANCY SERVICE FOR

REVIEWING THE STUDY OF WATER III
PROJECT TO ADDIS ABABA CITY
REPORT TASKS 456

DRAFT
18 April 2014
ADDIS ABABA WATER AND SEWERAGE AUTHORITY
WATER AND SANITATION DEVELOPMENT AND REHABILITATION
PROJECT OFFICE
CONSULTANCY SERVICE FOR REVIEWING THE STUDY OF WATER

III PROJECT TO ADDIS ABABA CITY
REPORT TASKS 456

DRAFT
Nicholas O’Dwyer Ltd.,

Consulting Engineers,
Nutgrove Office Park,
Nutgrove Avenue,
Dublin 14, Ireland 18 April 2104
PROJECT NO. 20517
Revision Reason for Revision Prepared by Reviewed by Approved by Issue Date
S Cleary/
- First Issue M Davitt J Cronin 18.04.14
G Yayehyirad
D
Consultancy Service for Reviewing the Study of Draft Report Tasks 456
Water III Project to Addis Ababa City
CONTENTS
Section Page
Title and brief description
No. No.
1.0 INTRODUCTION & EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.1.1 Water III Project 2
1.1.2 Current study 2
1.2 Executive Summary 2
1.2.1 Review the Water III parameters 4
1.2.2 Assess the additional water resources potential 4
1.2.3 Recommend alternative water resource development
scenarios 5
2.0 TASK 4: REVIEW THE WATER III DESIGN PARAMETERS FOR WATER 6
DEMAND
2.1 Population forecasting 6
6 2.1.1 Project boundary 6
6 2.1.2 Available data 7
7 2.1.3 Population distribution 8
8 2.1.4 Development planning 10
10 2.1.5 Discussion 11
2.2 Water III design parameters 15
2.2.1 Summary of previous parameters 15
2.2.2 SEURECA 15
2.2.3 Associated Engineering 15
2.2.4 TAHAL 16
2.3 Water demand forecasts 16
2.3.1 Baseline data 16
2.3.2 Identifying customer groups 16
2.3.3 Analysis of Domestic demand 18
2.3.3.1 Levels of service
1818 2.3.3.2 Per capita Water demand
21 2.3.4 Commercial/Administrative and Industrial demands 22
2.3.5 Non-Revenue Water (NRW)
25 2.3.6 Fire-fighting demand 26
2.3.7 Current situation 26
2.3.8 Future demand forecasting 27
3.0 TASK 5 ASSESS THE ADDITIONAL WATER RESOURCES POTENTIAL 28
3.1 Sibilu Catchment 28
3.1.1 Background 28
3.1.2 Catchment description 28
3.1.2.1 Administrative 28
3.1.2.2 Physiographic 30
3.1.2.3 Yield estimates 31
3.1.2.4 Other users 41
3.1.3 Data analysis 41
3.1.3.1 Available data 41
3.1.3.2 Meteorological data 42
3.1.3.3 Hydrological data 46
3.1.4 Yield enhancement 51
3.1.4.1 Watershed management 51
3.1.4.2 Watershed transfer & Hydro-networking 52
3.1.5 Reservoir simulation 52
3.1.5.1 Option A (Infrastructure submerged) 53
3.1.5.2 Option B (Infrastructure unaffected) 53
3.1.6 Environmental Impact Analysis 54
3.1.6.1 Introduction & Methodology 54
3.1.6.2 Consultation with Stakeholders 54
3.1.6.3 Environmental Scoping 54
3.1.6.4 Baseline environmental conditions 56
3.1.6.5 Potential environmental impacts 59
3.1.6.6 Conclusions & Recommendations 63
3.1.7 Socio-economic Impact Analysis 66
AAWSA Water & Sanitation Development i April 2014

and Rehabilitation Project Office
Section Page
Title and brief description
No. No.
3.1.7.1 Introduction & Methodology 66
3.1.7.2 Potential socio-economic impacts 67
3.1.7.3 Proposed mitigation measures 71
3.1.7.4 Impact of recent developments 72
3.1.7.5 Economic impacts and evaluation 74
3.1.7.6 Conclusions 76
3.1.8 Software for surface water 77
3.1.8.1 Description of BASIN 77
3.1.8.2 Data requirements and system outputs 79
3.2 Groundwater 81
3.2.1 Geology and geomorphology 81
3.2.1.1 Physiography of the Addis Ababa area 81
3.2.1.2 Lithology and stratification 81
3.2.1.3 Tectonics 82
3.2.2 Hydrogeological characteristics 82
3.2.3 Previous groundwater investigations 83
3.2.3.1 AESL (1984) 83
3.2.3.2 SEURECA (1991) 83
3.2.3.3 TAHAL/SHAWEL (1992) 83
3.2.3.4 AESL (1993) 84
3.2.3.5 BCEOM-SEURECA (2000) 84
3.2.3.6 WWDSE (2008) 85
3.2.3.7 WWDSE (2009-2010) 86
3.2.4 Ground water developments around Addis Ababa 91
3.2.4.1 South West and West of Old Akaki 91
3.2.4.2 Replacement production wells in Old Akaki 94
3.2.4.3 Legetafo – Legedadi - Ayat 95
3.2.4.4 South Ayat - North fanta 96
3.2.4.5 Sebeta - Tefki 98
3.2.5 Summary of current and future abstractions 98
3.2.6 Water quality and pollution threat 98
3.2.7 Reliability of previous evaluations 99
3.2.8 Monitoring and well field management 100
3.2.9 Conclusions 102
3.2.10 Recommendations 102
3.2.11 Environmental Impact assessment 104
3.2.11.1 Introduction 104
3.2.11.2 Baseline environmental characteristics 105
3.2.11.3 Environmental issues within well fields 110
3.2.11.4 Conclusions and recommendations 111
4.0 TASK 6 RECOMMEND ALTERNATIVE RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
SCENARIOS 112
4.1 Demand versus Yield analyses 112
4.1.1 Summary of Yields 112
4.1.2 Summary of Demands 112
4.1.3 Demand versus Yield 114
4.2 Alternative sources 114
4.2.1 Surface water 114
4.2.2 Groundwater 117
4.2.3 Conclusions 117
4.3 Development Scenarios 117
4.3.1 Outline of scenarios 117
4.3.2 Recommendation 118
4.4 Implementation schedule 118
4.5 Budget costs 119
APPENDICES
Appendix A Baseline data (Population, Water demand)
Appendix B Baseline data (Hydrology & Meteorology)
Appendix C Environmental Checklist
Appendix D Economic Evaluations
AAWSA Water & Sanitation Development ii April 2014

LIST OF FIGURES
Figure Page
Title
No. No.
2.1 Addis Ababa City and Current Supply Boundary 6
2.2 Population density by Sub City 9
2.3 Population density by Kebele 10
2.4 Maps of Addis Ababa and Oromia Special Zone Surrounding Finfinne 11
2.5 Domestic and Non-domestic Consumptions 24
3.1 Sibilu catchment (Location, extent and principal rivers) 29
3.2 Administrative woredas in the Sibilu and Gerbi catchments 30
3.3 Muger river Daily Mean Flow (2005) 34
3.4 Relationship between Muger and Sibilu Monthly mean Flow series 34
3.5 Monthly flow series comparison of Muger and Sibilu rivers 35
3.6 Flow duration curve, Sibilu 35
3.7 Relationship between storage volume and constant yield (Mass Curve/Rippl
analysis) 37
3.8 Single mass curve analysis (entire) 37
3.9 Single mass-curve analysis (portion – close up) 38
3.10 Probability of failure surface, showing relationship between reservoir storage
volume and yield (Gould’s probability matrix method) 39
3.11 Probability of failure surface, showing relationship between reservoir storage
volume and yield (Extended deficit analysis) 40
3.12 Isohyetal contours over Addis Ababa and Sibilu catchment 43
3.13 Monthly climatic characteristics at various stations around Addis Ababa 44-
a-f 45
3.14 Monthly distribution of rainfall around Sibilu catchment 46
3.15 Sibilu catchment with its main gauging stations 47
3.16 Flow Duration curve of Muger river 48
3.17 Annual hydrograph of Muger river 48
3.18 Cumulative mass flow curve for Muger river 49
3.19 Daily flow hydrograph of Sibilu river 49
3.20 Flow duration curve of Sibilu river 50
3.21 Daily flow hydrograph of Roba river 50
3.22 Flow duration curve of Roba river 51
3.23 Consultation with Sululta Woreda 54
3.24 Proposed reservoir area along national road and industries within potential
inundation area 56
3.25 BASINS screen shot 80
3.26 Areas covered by Ada’a and Becho Plain groundwater irrigation project 88
3.27 Hydrogeological map of Ada’a and Becho Plain and recharge areas 89
3.28 Location of prospective ground water sites and flow paths 90
3.29 Water wells drilled and under construction in the four well fields located south of
Akaki town 93
3.30 Pumping test discharge on BH10R replacement well in Old Akaki 95
3.31 LLA-4 artesian well during drilling 96
3.32 LLA-4 artesian well currently 97
3.33 Present dominant land use of the prospective SWAWF well field and condominium
complexes 105
3.34 An artesian well developed adjacent to the Legedadi reservoir 106
AAWSA Water & Sanitation Development iii April 2014

3.35 Dominant land use in the prospective LLA well field 107
3.36 Test pit dug for assessment of the ST prospective site and dominant land use of
the ST well field 109
LIST OF TABLES
Table Page
Table title
No. No.
2.1 Population distribution in Addis Ababa (2007 census) 7
2.2 CSA Population forecasts for Addis Ababa and surrounds 9
2.3 Historic Population Growth Trend of Addis Ababa 12
2.4 Population Growth Rates Used in Previous Water III Studies 12
2.5 Proposed Population Growth Rates 14
2.6 Population Forecasts for Project Area 14
2.7 SEURECA forecasts for population and water demand 15
2.8 AE forecasts for population and water demand 16
2.9 TAHAL forecasts for population and water demand 16
2.10 Domestic consumers service levels, CSA 2007 19
2.11 Proportions of service levels in 1994 and 2007 20
2.12 Projected proportions of service levels 21
2.13 Domestic Water Consumption figures (regional and international) 21
2.14 Proposed Per capita Water Demand 22
2.15 Consumption data and distribution by consumer category (2013) 23
2.16 Proposed NRW levels (AAWSA) 26
2.17 Estimated 2013 Water Demands (MEDIUM) 26
2.18 Estimated 2020 and 2030 Water Demands 27
3.1 Summary of physiographic characteristics of Sibilu catchment 30
3.2 Potential evaporation 36
3.3 Storage-Yield relationship (Mass-curve/Rippl method) 36
3.4 Summaries of yield estimates (90% reliability) 41
3.5 River gauging stations in the Sibilu catchment 47
3.6 Land use characteristics within Sibilu catchment 57
3.7 Estimated land loss in inundated areas 68
3.8 Land use distribution and estimated PAPs to be resettled (Option A) 69
3.9 2004 cost estimates dor socio-economic and environmental mitigation 72
3.10 Post-2004 developments and estimated translocation costs 74
3.11 Capital investment costs (USD x 106) 76
3.12 Summary of economic analyses 76
3.13 Location, elevation and geomorphology of prospective sites 86
3.14 Summary of completed wells drilled in Akaki prospective site 92
3.15 Summary of replacement production wells in Old Akaki well field 94
3.16 Summary of completed wells drilled in LLA by November 2013 96
3.17 Test wells drilled in SNWF prospective site 97
3.18 Test wells drilled in SBF prospective site 98
3.19 Summary of existing and future ground water sources 98
3.20 Land use in Berek Woreda 107
4.1 Summary of sources and yields 113
4.2 Summary of demands 113
4.3 Outline schedule 118
4.4 Budget costs 119
AAWSA Water & Sanitation Development iv April 2014

ABBREVIATIONS
Abbreviation Full title
Measurement
m: metre
mm: millimetre (m x 10-3)
km: kilometre (m x 103)
m2 : square metre
ha: hectare (m2 x 104)
km2: square kilometre (m2 x 106)
l: litre
m3 cubic metre (litre x 103)
Mm3: millions of cubic metres
s: second
min: minute
h: hour
d: day
annum: year
g: gram
mg: milligram (gram x 10-3)
kg: kilogram (gram x 103)
k: Thousand (103)
M: Million (106)
no. Number (quantity)

No. Number (Reference, as in House No.7)
Miscellaneous
AAWSA: Addis Ababa Water & Sewerage Authority
AAWSA-PO Addis Ababa Water & Sewerage Authority – Water and Sanitation Development
and Rehabilitation Project office
AMSL: Above Mean Sea Level (altitude)
CSA: Central Statistical Authority
DWL: Dynamic Water Level
EtC: Ethiopian Calendar

EC: Electrical Conductivity
ETB: Ethiopian Birr
EU: European Union
NRW: Non-Revenue Water
WHO: World Health Organisation
WTP: Water Treatment Plant
WWDSE: Water Works Design and Supervision Enterprise
AAWSA Water & Sanitation Development v April 2014

1.0 INTRODUCTION & EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1 Introduction
The water supply system for Addis Ababa has developed over the last 70 years with the
exploitation of surface water and groundwater resources both within and outside the
municipal boundaries. In recent years, the increased pace of economic developments of
the capital city has placed continuing pressure on the water supply system to maintain
pace with the resulting increased demands. Present-day supplies to the city total some
341,000 m3/d, derived from three surface water impoundments and 140 boreholes.
The Client, the Addis Ababa Water and Sewerage Authority – Water and Sanitation
Development & Rehabilitation Project Office (AAWSA–PO) concluded a Contract in May
2013 with Nicholas O’Dwyer Ltd. in association with MS Consultancy and SCE (the
Consultant) to provide consultancy services for the review of previous studies and
reports on expanding the surface water and groundwater supplies from existing and new
resources and to present alternative scenarios for future development to the year 2030.
The effective date of the Contract was the 21st June 2013. The Contract is scheduled to
be completed in March 2014. During the 9 month period the Consultant is required to
present a series of reports as set out in the project brief.
Report Tasks 456 follows on from three previous Reports, the Review Report submitted
on 09 July 2013, the Inception Report delivered on 15 August 2013 and Report Tasks
123 delivered on 28 October 2013. Monthly progress reports have also been submitted
for the periods 21 June 2013 to 31 July 2013, August 2013, September 2013, October
2013 and November 2013.
Report Tasks 456 presents the Consultant’s estimation of how the development of
existing and potential water sources, both ground and surface, should be systematically
exploited in the medium to satisfy the city’s water demands in the medium-(up to 2020)
and long-term (up to 2030). The Report presents the Consultant’s response to the
following Tasks:
Task 4: Review the Water III Design Parameters for water demand;
Task 5: Assess the additional water resources potential;
Task 6: Recommend alternative water resource development scenarios.
Comprehensive estimates are provided of; population growth, increased water demand
by category and potential abstractions from existing and future sources. Various options
are outlined for the staged development of the identified sources and the optimum
scenario is recommended for adoption and implementation.
AAWSA Water & Sanitation Development 1 April 2014

1.1 Introduction
1.1.1 Water III project
The beginning of the Water III project can be traced to 1984 with the publication of a
reconnaissance study by AESL, which identified a potential surface water source at
Sibilu, northwest of Addis Ababa city. This was followed by a feasibility study and
preliminary design, carried out by Seureca in 1992. Subsequently, there were a number
of localised reviews and updating of the 1992 proposals until 2005 when detailed designs
and tender dossiers were produced by TAHAL comprising five principal components,
namely:
 Gerbi dam and ancillary structures,

 Sibilu dam and ancillary structures,
 Wosserbi water treatment plant,
 Entoto tunnel, and
 Distribution/Transfer network (pipelines, pump stations and service reservoirs).
In the context of this study only the first three components are classified as source
works. Entoto tunnel is not being considered at this time by AAWSA for short- or
medium-term implementation, whilst the network components are outside the scope of
this study.
The water supply system for Addis Ababa has developed over the last 70 years with the
exploitation of surface water and groundwater resources both within and outside the
municipal boundaries. In recent years, the increased pace of economic developments of
the capital city has placed continuing pressure on the water supply system to maintain
pace with the resulting increased demands. Present-day supplies to the city total some
341,000 m3/d, derived from three surface water impoundments and 140 boreholes.
1.2.1 Current Study
The Client, the Addis Ababa Water and Sewerage Authority – Water and Sanitation
Development & Rehabilitation Project Office (AAWSA–PO) concluded a Contract in May
2013 with Nicholas O’Dwyer Ltd. in association with MS Consultancy and SCE (the
Consultant) to provide consultancy services for the review of previous studies and
reports on expanding the surface water and groundwater supplies from existing and new
resources and to present alternative scenarios for future development to the year 2030.
The effective date of the Contract was the 21st June 2013. The Contract is scheduled to
be completed in March 2014. During the 9 month period the Consultant is required to
present a series of reports as set out in the project brief.

The objective of this Study is “to assess to the highest professional standards the
existing and future water demand and supply in Addis Ababa and see different scenarios
on the possible conjunctive surface and ground water resources uses to ensure a
sustainable water supply for the metropolitan city” (abstracted from the Terms of
Reference).
To meet this objective the Consultant is required to undertake a series of Tasks (below)
and to prepare Reports at defined stages:
 Task 1 – Evaluating existing water supply system production,
 Task 2 – Review of water source development activities,
 Task 3 – Checking operational efficiency (Non-revenue water),
 Task 4 – Review the Water III design parameters for water demand,
 Task 5 – Assess the additional water resources potential,
 Task 6 – Recommend alternative water resource development scenarios,
 Task 7 - Ground water database development,
 Task 8 – Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) studies,
 Task 9a – Preparation of Terms of Reference, and
 Task 9b – Preparation of Preliminary Engineering Report.
Report Tasks 456 follows on from four previous Reports; the Review Report submitted
on 09 July 2013, the Inception Report delivered on 15 August 2013 and Report Tasks
123 (Final version delivered on 28 February 2014). The Draft Report Task 7 was
delivered on 11 February 2014. Monthly progress reports have also been submitted for
the periods June/July 2013 to January 2014.
Report Tasks 456 presents the Consultant’s estimation of future water demands, based
on sustainable demand parameters, and describes how existing and potential water
sources, both ground and surface, should be systematically exploited to satisfy these
demands for the medium-(up to 2020) and long-term (up to 2030) situations.
Comprehensive estimates are provided of; population growth, increased water demand
by category and potential abstractions from existing and future sources. Various options
are outlined for the staged development of the identified sources and the optimum
scenario is recommended for adoption and implementation.

1.2 Executive Summary
1.2.1 Review the Water III design parameters for Water demand
Current (2013) and future (2020 and 2030) populations have been estimated with the
2007 National Census and 2012 inter-censal survey providing baseline data.
Development plans for Addis Ababa and adjacent areas have been reviewed to assess
the future residential, commercial and industrial land uses. Three estimates (HIGH,
MEDIUM and LOW) have been prepared and the following MEDIUM forecasts are
proposed:
2013 3,503,165
2020 4,235,773
2030 5,367,825.
Individual domestic water demands have been calculated, based on current observed
demands in Addis Ababa and related to regional and international for comparative capital
cities. Commercial/Administrative and Industrial demands have been estimated using
current proportional supplies of Domestic. Non-revenue water (NRW) allowances have
been based on current (40% of total supplied) and proposed future (30% in 2020 and
20% in 2030) levels. The following total water demands have been derived:
2013 476,340 m3/d
2020 1,055,184 m3/d
2030 1,341,419 m3/d.
These estimates suggest an annual growth in water demand of 6.3% for the 17 years
from the present day to 2030. This figure reflects not just the increase in population but
also the greater preponderance of domestic consumers at the higher service levels.
1.2.2 Assess the additional water resources potential
The assessment commenced with a comprehensive evaluation of the potential yield from
Sibilu dam, which had varied from 380,000 m 3/d to 627,000 m3/d in earlier studies. The
Stage/Area/Volume relationship of the impoundment was verified by topographic survey;
this information, supplemented by additional hydrological and meteorological data, was
used to arrive at yields of 418,000 m3/d at a Full Supply level (FSL) of 2562 mAMSL and
159,000 m3/d at a FSL of 2552 mAMSL. The second option for Sibilu has been prepared
to take account of the substantial industrial and commercial developments that have
taken place in the impounded area since the detailed design was prepared in 2004. Both
options are shown to be economically and technically viable; however, political and social
constraints may limit the actual choice.

New groundwater resources, either currently under development or identified as having

high potential, are described; these with existing facilities are forecast to provide a total
of 608,000 m3/d from this resource. Recommendations are presented for optimising the
management and operation of the ground water sources.
The yields from the identified sources are not adequate to meet the 2030 demands,
although the 2020 demands can be satisfied if Sibilu is constructed to its maximum
level.
1.2.3 Recommend alternative water resource development scenarios
Three different scenarios are presented as regards the development of identified and
potential sources. Again, Sibilu dam is at the heart of the proposals, either as Scenario 1
(developed to its full potential) or Scenario 2 (constructed to avoid inundating the new
industrial and commercial facilities within the basin). Finally, Scenario 3 has been
prepared assuming that Sibilu is abandoned and an alternative surface water source, at
Melka Kunture in the Awash catchment, is implemented.
Budget costs are developed for each scenario, as follows:
 Scenario 1 – USD 323.430 million,
 Scenario 2 – USD 404.869 million, and
 Scenario 3 – USD 576.500 million.
It is recommended that Scenario 1 be adopted, this incorporates the full development of

Sibilu. An outline schedule for implementation has been presented do that supply can
match the ever-increasing demands within the project timeframe.

2.0 TASK 4: REVIEW THE WATER III DESIGN PARAMETERS FOR WATER
DEMAND
2.1 Population forecasting
2.1.1 Project boundary
One of the major sources of incongruity and inconsistency between the various
population estimates from previous studies has been the different areas that have been
used in compiling those estimates. For the purpose of this Project, it is proposed to
develop estimates of current and future populations residing within the existing supply
boundaries of AAWSA, as illustrated on Figure 2.1.
Figure 2.1 Addis Ababa City and current water supply area boundaries

Addis Ababa is divided into 10 Sub-cities and 99 Kebeles. Among the Sub-cities, Lideta,
Kirkos, Arada and Addis Ketema represent the central areas; the remaining six, Akaki
Kaliti, Nefas Silk Lafto, Kolfe Keraniyo, Gulele, Yaka and Bole, form the peripheral zones
that are expanding outwards into the surrounding areas.
In addition to the areas within the current administrative boundaries, the surrounding
areas should also be considered in estimating current and future water demands of the
city. At present, more than 1% of the population in the slum areas of the city, peripheral
kebeles and surrounding areas have no access to piped water supply system. However,
in the future these areas will be supplied by AAWSA’s water supply system. Accordingly,
it is intended to develop the current and future populations resident in and around the
city of Addis Ababa.
2.1.2 Available data
The baseline data for current and future population estimates is the 2007 national
census and the analysis of that data by the Central Statistical Authority (CSA). Table 2.1
summarises the 2007 census result for Addis Ababa city within the current
administrative boundary.
Table 2.1 Population distribution in Addis Ababa (2007 Census)
Number of Residents/
Sub-city Population Housing Housing
Units Unit
Akaki Kality 181,270 46,092 3.9
Nefas Silk-Lafto 316,283 75,779 4.2
Kolfe Keraniyo 428,895 94,135 4.6
Gulele 267,624 58,465 4.6
Lideta 201,713 44,946 4.5
Kirkos 221,234 53,428 4.1
Arada 211,501 48,134 4.4
Addis Ketema 255,372 49,923 5.1
Yeka 346,664 88,100 3.9
Bole 308,995 77,445 4.0
Totals 2,739,551 636,447 4.3

The CSA reports that the peripheral zones surrounding Addis Ababa are being populated
at an increasing rate by people migrating to the areas in search of employment and
education. These areas were delineated in 2008 as the Oromia Special Zone Surrounding
Finfinne/Addis Ababa, with the principal objectives of controlling the sprawl of illegal
settlements in these areas and interconnecting the city with such areas by the provision
of basic infrastructure.
According to the 2007 census, the number of people residing in the actively growing
surrounding areas of Addis Ababa was 228,420, representing 24.35% of the total
population of the Special Zone. For this study, this figure has been in the baseline data
for the estimation of the current and future population of these areas.
Based on the 2007 census, and the 2012 inter-censal surveys, the CSA has developed
future annual growth rates ranging from 2.42% to 1.82% (see Table 2.5). The CSA’s
future population forecasts for the city of Addis Ababa and its surrounding, using the
2007 census data as a baseline and applying these growth rates, are summarised in
Table 2.2 below.
Table 2.2 CSA Population Forecasts for Addis Ababa and surrounds
Population (no.)
Location
2007 2013 2020 2030
Within Addis Baba 2,739,551 3,113,099 3,671,709 4,495,066
Surrounding areas 228,420 259,566 306,142 374,792
TOTAL 2,967,971 3,372,664 3,977,851 4,869,859
2.1.3 Population distribution
The distribution of population of the city at Sub-city and Kebele levels compiled by the
CSA is illustrated in Figures 2.2 and 2.3. According to the CSA 2007 data, the average
population density of all Kebeles of Addis Ababa is 163 persons/hectare (p/ha), with
density decreasing from the inner kebeles to the peripheral zones.
Gullele Sub-city has an average density of 125 p/ha, Bole 85 p/ha and Akaki Kality Sub-
city 32 p/ha. As is common in most cities, central areas have higher densities and there
are some very densely occupied districts.
On average and at Sub-city level, Lideta has the highest population concentration with
391 p/ha, followed by Addis Ketema, Arada and Quirkos with 312, 237 and 152 p/ha
respectively.

Figure 2.2 Population density by Sub-City
Population density decreases from the inner kebeles towards the peripheral areas.
Peripheral kebeles are sparsely occupied, with values ranging from 1 to 15 p/ha.
Golangora, Kilinto/Feche/Roye in Akaki Kaliti and Kebele 16/18/21/22 of Bole Sub-cities
are the least densely occupied kebeles with 1, 2 and 4 p/ha respectively.
Kebeles of Gullele Sub-city have the highest average population densities among the
partially peripheral sub cities.

Figure 2.3 Population density by Kebele
2.1.4 Development planning
The area of the city increased to 530.21 km2 from 222.04 km2 in 1980. At the time of
the 1994census, the city contained 305 urban and 23 rural kebeles, which were
considered as farmers’ association areas. However, the 2007 census revealed that these
rural areas were now totally urbanized; as a result, there is no area within the current
administrative boundary of the city that would be considered as rural.
Even though the administrative boundary is officially delineated, the city is physically
expanding beyond its boundary into the surrounding areas. In order to accommodate

this expansion, an Integrated Master Plan and Land Use Plan are being prepared for the
city of Addis Ababa and its surrounding by the City Planning Project Office of Addis
Ababa in cooperation with the Oromia Special Zone Surrounding Finfinne. This new plan
is expected to widen the administrative boundary of the city to the surrounding areas.
However, it not yet clearly established as to what extent the city boundary may expand
to the surrounding areas, as the map is not officially published or adopted.
The map of the Oromia Special Zone Surrounding Finfinne is reproduced in Figure 2.4.
Figure 2.4 Addis Ababa and Oromia Special Zone Surrounding Finfinne
2.1.4 Discussion
The historic population growth trend of Addis Ababa shows that while the population of
the city has been increasing, the trend of annual growth rates is decreasing. Before the
first national census in 1984, the population of the city was estimated to be growing at a
rate of 5% annually. The rate then decreased to 4% during the 10 years period between
the first and second national census in 1994.
On the other hand, the third national census, conducted in 2007, revealed that the city
experienced a sluggish population growth between 1994 and 2007, growing annually at
a rate of 2.1%, which is substantially lower than the previous growth rates, as shown in
Table 2.3.

Table 2.3 Historic population growth rates for Addis Ababa
Growth Rate
Year Population Remark
(%)
1961 443,728 - First Municipal Census
1984 1,423,111 5.02 First National Census
1994 2,112,737 4.03 Second National Census
2007 2,739,551 2.10 Third National Census
The previous Water III studies used different growth rates based on different baseline
data. The growth rates adopted by SEURECA were based on the 1984 CSA’s growth
rates, which ranged from 4.36% to 6.15% for the High growth scenario and 4.28% to
4.45% for the Medium growth scenario. TAHAL, on the other hand, developed growth
rates for its Water III Project based on the 1994 CSA’s Medium growth scenario and the
rates ranged from 3.5% to 2.9%, as shown in Table 2.4.
Table 2.4 Population growth rates used in previous Water III studies
SEURECA
Year TAHAL
Low Medium High
1984 - 1989 4.31 4.28 4.36 -
1990 - 1994 4.00 4.10 4.52 -
1995 - 1999 3.60 4.11 4.59 3.5
2000 - 2004 3.18 3.89 4.58 3.5
2004 –2009 2.81 3.82 4.77 3.5
2010 – 2014 2.48 3.97 5.30 3.5
2015 – 2019 2.36 4.45 6.15 2.9
2020-2025 No data No data No data 2.9
The 2.1% growth rate reported by CSA is far less than the rates adopted by previous
studies. It is noted that this growth rate is not widely accepted by various organizations,
including the city administration. In order to further validate the census result of 2007,
an inter-censal survey was conducted by CSA in 2012. This revealed that the population
of the city grew at a rate of 2.1% annually (2007 to 2012), which is the same as the
growth rate between 1994 and 2007.
Based on the results of the inter-censal survey and the Demographic and Health Survey
conducted in 2011, CSA projected the future annual growth rates for the subsequent 30
years period in 5-year intervals. The projected annual growth rates, ranging from 2.42
% to 1.82%, are shown in Table 2.5.

The future population growth is highly affected by the population growth parameters,
such as fertility, mortality and migration. In the 2007 census, the fertility rate was
reported to be 2.9% and it declined to 1.8% during the 2012 Inter-Censal Population
Survey (ICPS). As indicated in the ICPS report, such a substantial variance could only
result from applying different methodologies for the census and inter-censal surveys. It
is noted that CSA projected the future growth rates using the lower fertility rate.
This statistically significant reduction in the fertility rate would result in a considerable
difference in the future population forecasts. It is unlikely that this low level fertility rate
would continue for extended periods, when the relatively younger female population of
the city is taken into account. Consequently, it is intended to develop a growth rate
using the 2.9% fertility rate and use this to forecast the future High variant population.
The ICPS reports a crude death rate of 5 to 6 deaths per 1000. Future mortality rates,
and the gain in life expectancy, depend on the effectiveness of the health programme
and access to health care facilities, which have been improving in Addis Ababa. Taking
this into account, it is estimated that the future mortality rate would not exceed 0.5%.
This mortality rate with the 2.9% fertility would result in a natural growth of 2.4%.
The population of Addis Ababa is also significantly influenced by migration, as it is the

capital city of the country providing employment opportunities and educational facilities,
thus attracting migrants from various parts of the country. The number of immigrants
into the city during the 5-year period between 2007 and 2012 is reported to be about
9.2% of the 2012 population. Corresponding to this, the number of emigrants from the
city to other parts of the country was estimated as 5.0%, resulting in a net addition of
about 4.2% to the total population of the city as a result of migration during the 5-year
period. This would result in an addition of about 0.84% to the annual natural growth
rate. Thus the overall growth rate is 3.24%, and we consider this growth rate to be more
reliable for the city of Addis Ababa than the 2.1% estimated by CSA which was
developed using the lower fertility rate.
It is also necessary to consider the differential growth rates in the central and peripheral
areas of the city. According to the CSA, the surrounding areas of Addis Ababa, which are
the future potential expansion areas of the city, grew at the rate of 4.1% between 2009
and 2010 and this growth is attributed to the ever-increasing migration towards those
areas. The ongoing restructuring of the city, in expanding its boundary to the
surrounding areas, is also expected to further boost the inward migration to over 1.0%.
This migration factor, coupled with the relatively higher growth rates in the surrounding
areas of the city, would increase the projected annual population growth rate of the city
to 3.5%.

Based on the growth rates developed by the CSA, and rates estimated from the
population growth parameters described above, three growth scenarios, namely LOW,
MEDIUM and HIGH, have been developed as described below:
 adopt the growth rates of CSA proposed in 5-year intervals for estimating the
LOW variant population projection;
 adopt growth rates between 3.5%, which is determined from population growth
parameters, and 2.5%, which is the maximum growth rate of CSA, for estimating
the HIGH variant population projection, and
 adopt the average between the two growth rates for estimating the MEDIUM
variant population projection.
The postulated growth rates are presented in Table 2.5.
Table 2.5 Proposed population growth rates
YEAR 2007 - 2012 2013 - 2017 2018 - 2022 2023 - 2027 2028 - 2030
1
LOW 2.1 2.42 2.34 2.06 1.82
3
MEDIUM 2.8 2.81 2.67 2.43 2.16
2
HIGH 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.5
Notes:
1. LOW Variant Growth Rates based on the CSA's Projection;
2. HIGH Variant Growth Rates developed from analysis of population growth
parameters;
3. MEDIUM Variant Growth Rates are the average between LOW and HIGH Variants.
The detailed forecasts from this proposal are presented in Appendix A1 and
summarised for the project milestone years in Table 2.6 below. It is proposed that the
MEDIUM data are used for future forecasting.
Table 2.6 Population forecasts for Project Area
Forecast Population (No.)

Year
LOW MEDIUM HIGH
2013 3,372,664 3,503,165 3,637,819
2020 3,977,851 4,235,773 4,508,910
2030 4,869,859 5,367,825 5,914,025

2.2 Water III design parameters
2.2.1 Previous studies
There have been three previous studies into evaluating current (then) and future water
demands under the auspices of the Water III project, namely:
 SEURECA (France) in 1991, which was a comprehensive attempt to quantify and

distribute the existing and future population in Addis Ababa and to assign realistic
water consumption figures;
 Associated Engineering (Canada) in 1993, which was in essence a review and
update of the SEURECA forecasts, with population data revised appreciably;
 TAHAL (Israel) in 2005, which was part of an exercise to review and update the
previous studies and to prepare detailed designs and tender dossiers for selected
components (Water Supply Project IIIA).
2.2.2 SEURECA (1991)
The Water III parameters were originally developed by SEURECA as part of their
“Feasibility Study and Preliminary Design” for the Addis Ababa Water Supply Project
Stage III. Their estimates of future population and consequent water demands were
detailed in the report titled “General Report – April 1991”, summarised for the 2013
(current) and 2020 (medium-term horizon) as follows:
Table 2.7 SEURECA (1992) forecasts for population and water demand
Parameter Population (no.) *Water demand No. of

Year Low Medium High (m3/d) connections
2013 3,752,000 4,580,000 5,504,000 323,331 336,797
2020 4,543,000 6,225,000 8,392,000 466,026 474,725
*Note: Based on Medium population projections and excluding “unaccounted for water”
(UAW).
2.2.3 Associated Engineering (1994)
The SEURECA study was subjected to a review by Associated Engineering (AE) some 2
years later. AE reported that the forecasting methodologies employed by SEURECA were
robust and acceptable, but noted that in the period 1990 – 1992 there had been
significant inward migration to Addis Ababa, as a result of the internal conflict, and that
these new arrivals were likely to remain in the city. In addition, the city area had
expanded and the Municipality had carried out a population enumeration in 1991, which
provided more sustainable population data. Consequently, AE revised the previous
forecasts upwards, summarised below:

Table 2.8 AE (1994) forecasts for population and water demand
Population *Water demand

Year
(no.) (m3/d)
2013 5,984,800 426,592
2020 7,553,400 565,981
*Note: Based on Medium population projections and excluding “unaccounted

for water” (UAW).
2.2.4 TAHAL
In 2003 TAHAL Consulting Engineers were commissioned by AAWSA to prepare detail

designs and tender dossiers for the Addis Ababa Water Supply Project – Stage IIIA. As
part of this commission, the previous projections of population and water demand were
reviewed and updated with the following results:
Table 2.9 TAHAL (2005) forecasts for population and water demand
Population Water demand

Year
(no.) (m3/d)
2013 4,107,837 426,592
2020 5,098,917 978,231
2.3 Water demand forecasts
2.3.1 Baseline data
The baseline data for estimating current and future demands are:
 Population estimates with appropriate per capita daily use for Domestic demands;
 Industrial and Administrative demands, calculated as a percentage of the
Domestic demand;
 Allowance for Non-Revenue Water, based on current measurements and forecast
reductions, estimated as a percentage of the total demands.
2.3.2 Identifying customer groups
The current water consumption level by consumer type have been analysed at branch
office and city levels based on the nine months bill data (from January 2013 to
September 2013) provided by the IT Department of AAWSA.
According to the current billing system of AAWSA, there are only three customer groups:
1. Domestic Customers: this group of customers are those who use water solely
for domestic purposes;

2. Non-Domestic Customers: this group consists of a wide range of customers

including commercial centres, institutions (governmental, private and non-
governmental) and industries;
3. Public Fountains: this group of customers uses water solely for domestic
purpose, but obtain the water from public fountains.
The current classification of customers is inadequate for in-depth analysis of the scale of
water consumption by different users. The Domestic Customers should have been
further classified on the type of connection (house connection or yard connection) and
whether this is owned by individual houses or group of houses, as the per capita water
consumption varies based on the type of connection. The general classification currently
used by AAWSA results in average per capita water consumption regardless of the type
of connection.
The classification of the Non-Domestic customers is also vague as it encompasses

consumers of different characteristics and varying water consumption levels. It would be
of great assistance if these customers were differentiated as to Commercial, Institutional
and Industrial consumers, to ascertain accurate consumption levels by customer type.
The collected monthly data on number of customers and water consumption distribution
at branch office, woreda and kebele levels were prepared by the IT Department of
AAWSA, using recorded billing data. The accuracy of these data depends on the metering
accuracy and errors that may occur during data encoding. We have concluded that
metering is generally accurate and that billing data aggregated over the 9-month period
provides a reliable indication of consumption.
It should be noted that as the current water consumption level is constrained by the
shortages of water, the per capita demands calculated from this data would only provide
the restricted individual demands. However, the data is invaluable in estimating the
scale of the non-domestic consumption as a percentage of the domestic consumption,
which is the base for estimating the commercial/administrative and industrial demands.
Similar data was used in the current NRW studies.
The collected billing data has been used to estimate the current (restricted) levels of
non-domestic consumption in terms of the domestic consumption, while the future
(unrestricted) domestic demand is estimated based on CSA’s census data and by
comparing the domestic per capita demands in comparative capital cities in Africa with
similar socio economic condition to those pertaining in Addis Ababa.

2.3.3 Analysis of Domestic demand
2.3.3.1 Levels of service
CSA, in its 1994 and 2007 censi, classified the mode of water services for domestic
consumers into four types:
 Tap inside the house, or House Connection (HC),
 Tap in compound, Private, or Yard Connection Private (YCP),
 Tap in compound, shared, or Yard Connection Common (YCC), and
 Tap outside compound, or Public Fountain (PF).
The mode of service is related to the quality of housing units, although to some degree it
is also affected by the adequacy of the water supply system. Better quality housing units
furnished with sanitary fixtures are served through the HC mode of service. In addition,
there are housing units with sanitary fixtures, mainly sinks, hand washbasins and
showers, that use water by fetching from YCC. SEURECA classified the housing units with
internal plumbing as Type 1, while housing types that use YCC and PF were classified as
Type 2 and Type 3 respectively. TAHAL in its Water III Project adopted the classification
of CSA. In the same way, the categorization of CSA as mentioned above has been
adopted for this Study.
According to the 2007 census result, residents living in Lideta, Kirkos, Arada and Addis
Ketema Sub-cities had better access to the piped water supply system than the
remaining Sub-cities. This is mainly because those Sub-cities are located in the central
part of the city where there is a better water distribution network. On the other hand,
the number of housing units connected to piped water supply system was relatively
smaller in the outskirts of the peripheral Sub-cities because of limited water supply
systems in those areas. The residents of these peripheral areas were forced to rely on
water from unsafe sources, such as unprotected springs, lakes, ponds and rivers.
About 97.68% of the population had access to piped water supply system at the time of
census, while the remainder (2.32%) used water from other sources like springs, lakes,
ponds and rivers. Among the residents connected to the city’s water distribution
network, only 5.83% were serviced through HC, while 25.89% of the residents were
connected through the YCC mode of service. More than 65% of the residents were
serviced through either YCC or PF, the former taking a share of 37.56%.
Table 2.10 summarises the distribution of housing units by mode of services in the ten
Sub-cities.

Table 2.10 Domestic consumer service levels, CSA 2007
Households with Access to Piped Water Supply System Households having no

Sub City Access to Piped Water
HC YCP YCC PF Supply System
Connections (no.) 1,404 10,653 17,832 14,574 1,287
Akaki Kality
% 3.07 23.29 38.98 31.86 2.81
Connections (no.) 3,882 19,073 34,853 15,443 1,828
Nefas Silk - Lafto
% 5.17 25.40 46.42 20.57 2.43
Connections (no.) 3,946 25,266 31,559 29,180 3,382
Kolfe Keraniyo
% 4.23 27.07 33.81 31.26 3.62
Connections (no.) 2,183 14,911 25,194 13,812 1,739
Gulele
% 3.77 25.78 43.56 23.88 3.01
Connections (no.) 2,289 12,086 14,855 15,110 11
Lideta
% 5.16 27.25 33.49 34.07 0.02
Connections (no.) 4,232 13,055 21,198 14,086 11
Kirkos
% 8.05 24.83 40.31 26.79 0.02
Connections (no.) 3,762 12,640 16,060 14,882 21
Arada
% 7.94 26.69 33.91 31.42 0.04
Connections (no.) 2,483 13,769 11,020 21,727 43
Addis Ketema
% 5.06 28.08 22.47 44.30 0.09
Connection (no.) 3,931 21,569 37,082 20,599 4,164
Yeka
% 4.50 24.69 42.45 23.58 4.77
Connections (no.) 8,550 19,838 26,571 19,227 2,113
Bole
% 11.21 26.00 34.82 25.20 2.77
Connections (no.) 36,662.00 162,860.00 236,224.00 178,640.00 14,599.00
TOTAL
% 5.83 25.89 37.56 28.40 2.32

Among the ten Sub-cities, Bole had the highest proportion of the HC (11.21%) mode of
services. This is not only because of the high quality housing units found there, but also
because the Sub-city, especially the western area, is well served by the water
distribution network as it is the host of a large number of hotels, apartments and
residences of diplomats. Akaki Kaliti was the Sub-city with the least proportion (3.07%)
of the HC mode of service.
When the percentage share of the modes of services in 2007 is compared against that of
in 1994 (see Table 2.11), there are increases in the HC, YCP and YCC consumers, while
the PF users decreased significantly from 45.33% to 28.40% in 2007. There is no
significant change in the number of residents depending on other water sources.
Table 2.11 Proportions of service levels in 1994 and 2007
Consumer proportion by mode of service (%)

Year
Other
HC YCP YCC PF
Sources
1994 4.43 22.43 25.57 45.33 2.24
2007 5.83 25.89 37.56 28.40 2.32
The improvements observed in the distribution of HC, YCP and YCC consumers, and the
significant reduction in the percentage of PF users, resulted mainly from the
improvements made to the city’s water supply system during the specified period. The
increasing demand by the residents for improved levels of services is also a reflection of
the improvement in their income level and socio-economic conditions. The desire of the
residents for improved service, and their ability to pay for an improved quality of service,
will result in increased demands enhanced service levels.
Since 2007, the higher quality connection type has increased substantially in line with
the superior housing condition in the city. The city administration has transferred more
than 120,000 housing units to beneficiaries during the last six years period and more
than 20% of the units have already been connected to water supply system. This has
boosted the current HC percentage to 9% (2013 estimates).
The national government is planning to construct more than 400,000 housing units
within the next 7 years for low and middle-income residents. This ambitious housing
project, coupled with the improvement to be made to the water supply system, will
substantially increase the HC and YCP modes of services. Accordingly, the present and
future shares of the various levels of service have been estimated by AAWSA as
summarised in Table 2.12 below.

Table 2.12 Projected proportions of service levels
Year Mode of Services (%)

Total (%)
HC YCP YCC PF
2007 5.83 25.89 37.56 28.40 97.68
2013 9.00 27.00 35.00 28.00 99.00
2020 45.00 30.00 15.00 10.00 100.00
2030 52.50 35.00 7.50 5.00 100.00
2.3.3.2 Per capita demand
It should be noted that the water demand in Addis Ababa has been effectively
suppressed over the last two decades, as supply has failed to fully satisfy demand with
consequent intermittent supplies to large areas. Accordingly, it is not appropriate to use
the recent and existing bulk or consumer level supply information in forecasting
demands.
Various per capita consumption rates have been used in the previous studies to estimate
current and future demands, using individual daily requirements for different housing
categories and service levels. The SEURECA calculations of individual consumption
amounts and those in other major cities are shown in Table 2.13. It is noted that these
are average figures for the various mode of services; there will be individual cases within
each category that have higher or lower consumption rates. For the purpose of current
and future estimates, the average rates will be applied across each category.
Table 2.13 Domestic water consumption figures (regional and international)
1
Individual consumption
2
Housing (l/p/d)
Remarks
category
AA DSM MPM
HC 127 150 150
YCP 59 100 150
YCC 32 60 80
Rely on public standpipes

PF 4 20 20 supplemented by local wells,
streams.
Notes:
1. Figures used by; Addis Ababa (AA, SEURECA, 1991), Dar es Salaam (DSM,
current), and Maputo (MPM, current).
2. As defined in SEURECA (1991).

The per capita water consumption in Addis Ababa is less than other major cities in the
continent with similar socio-economic conditions. The socio-economic conditions of the
residents of Addis Ababa are improving with time and high quality housing units are
being constructed by the government and private developers. The individual personal
water demand is mainly affected by the quality of housing units, quality of sanitary
fixtures, availability of water in sufficient quantity, affordability and willingness of the
residents to pay for improved services. These factors, coupled with the planned
improvements in the water supply system of the city, both in source development and
distribution network expansion, will increase the individual water demands in the future.
Taking this into account, the following per capita demands for the four modes of services
have been proposed.
Table 2.14 Proposed per capita water demands
Year Per Capita Demand (l/p/d)
HC YCA YCC PF
2013 120 80 50 20
2020 150 100 60 30
2030 150 100 50 30
2.3.4 Commercial/Administrative and Industrial demands
In the previous Water III studies the domestic demand was the base for estimating Non-
domestic demands. The collected 9-months data have been analysed to determine the
scale of non-domestic demands as a percentage of the domestic demand. It should be
noted that the water consumed by the domestic and public fountain customers are used
solely for domestic purposes.
For the 9-month period investigated, the average water consumption was 193,340 m3/d,
of which the domestic consumption, including public fountains, was 109,933.11m3/d,
equivalent to 56.86% of the total daily consumption. The average Non-domestic water
consumption was 83,407.03 m3/d, accounting for 43.14% of the total consumption.
At city level, the average daily non-domestic consumption is about 75.87% of the
domestic consumption. This high proportion indicates the existence of large number of
commercial centres, institutions and industries in the city. The consumption levels by
category, and corresponding percentages, are presented in Table 2.15.

Consultancy Service for Reviewing the Study of Report Tasks 456
Table 2.15 Consumption data and distribution by consumer category (2013)
Consumption by category (m3/d) Proportion (%)
Branch Non-
Non-
office Non- Total Domestic
Domestic PF Total Domestic Domestic
Domestic Domestic as %age of
Domestic
Addis Ketema 11,688 5,165 697 12,385 17,551 70.57 29.43 41.71
Akaki 4,701 7,038 259 4,961 12,000 41.35 58.65 141.86
Arada 7,922 18,262 680 8,603 26,866 32.02 67.98 212.27
Gulele 9,874 7,719 171 10,046 17,765 56.55 43.45 76.83
Gurdshola 18,997 9,781 657 19,655 29,436 66.77 33.23 49.77
Megenagna 13,199 11,850 161 13,361 25,211 53.00 47.00 88.70
Mekanissa 18,424 9,175 623 19,048 28,224 67.49 32.51 48.17
Nifassilk 21,440 14,413 430 21,870 36,283 60.28 39.72 65.90
TOTALS 106,250 83,407 3,683 109,933 193,340 56.86 43.14 75.87

The water consumption in the different categories varies from branch office to branch
office. For example, areas under Akaki Branch Office, which encompasses all of the Akaki
Kaliti Sub City, consume a small volume of water daily (12,000 m3/d) when compared to
the other branch offices. However, from the total water daily consumption in the area,
about 58.65% goes to the non-domestic customers while the domestic customers,
including public tap users, consume only 41.35%. In other words, the non-domestic
consumption in this area is 141.86% of the domestic consumption. This higher non-
domestic water consumption is mainly because Akaki Kaliti Sub City is a centre for
industries of varying types and scales.
Figure 2.5 illustrates the varying proportions of Domestic and Non-domestic consumption
experienced across the 8 Branch offices.
Figure 2.5 Domestic and Non-domestic Consumption (2013)
The other branch office where Non-domestic consumption exceeds the Domestic is
Arada. This area includes all Arada Sub City, which accommodates numerous commercial
centres, hotels, cafeterias and business activities. The 8,603.48 m 3/day domestic
consumption in this area makes it the second lowest Domestic consumer among the
eight branch offices of AAWSA while the 18,262.63m 3/day Non-domestic consumption is
the highest. The Non-domestic consumption in the area is more than twice the Domestic
consumption.

Areas under the Megenagna Branch, which includes portions of Bole and Yeka Sub-cities,
also contain high numbers of Non-domestic consumers. During the month of January
2013, the Domestic and Non-domestic consumptions in the area were 43.10% and
56.90% respectively. During this month, the percentage of the Non-domestic
consumption with respect to the Domestic consumption was 132.03%. During the month
of April 2013, the Domestic and Non-domestic consumptions were 47.27% and 52.73%,
respectively, and the percentage of non-domestic consumption was 111.55% of the
domestic consumption. In the remaining months, however, consumption by non-
domestic customers is less than that of the domestic customers suggesting that the
consumption rates in either, or both, categories are seasonal. In aggregate, the average
Non-domestic consumption over the nine months period is 88.70% of the Domestic
consumption. The high proportion of non-domestic consumption in the area is attributed
to the existence of industries, including SUMMIT Beverage PLC, which consume large
volume of water through direct connection to the Legedadi Transmission Line.
It should be noted that future improvements to the water supply system would not
necessarily bring significant change in the relationship between Non-domestic and
Domestic consumption. This is because the improvement will boost both the Domestic
and the Non-domestic demands simultaneously as these are currently constrained
because of the shortage of water. Therefore, the current 75% ratio of the Non-domestic
consumption has been uniformly adopted for the estimation of future Non-domestic
water demands.
With the data at hand, it is difficult to breakdown the Non-domestic consumption into
Commercial/Administrative and Industrial categories. It is estimated that the
Commercial and Administrative demands are greater than the Industrial demand.
Accordingly, it is proposed to apportion the Commercial/Administrative and Industrial
consumption to be 40% and 35% of the Domestic demands respectively.
2.3.5 Non-Revenue Water (NRW)
Non-revenue Water must also be accounted in the calculation of the current and future
water demands, as it has significant impact on the overall water demand of the city. As
discussed under Section 4.3.4 (Current Status and Scale of the NRW) of the Final Report
Tasks 123 (28 February 2014), the present day level of NRW at city level is almost 40%
of the total volume of water supplied. There is ongoing NRW study by AAWSA with the
ambitious objective of reducing the current NRW to a level of 20% by the year 2020.
Though achieving the set objective within this short period is challenging, it could well be
met if the planned capacity building and proposed implementation strategies are
effectively put into operation. Based on this, the following percentages have been

proposed for the medium- (2020) and long-term (2030) implementation horizons of this
review study.
Table 2.16 Proposed NRW levels (AAWSA)
NRW (% of total demand)

Year
2013 2020 2030
NRW 40 30 20
2.3.6 Fire-fighting demand
The volume of water required for firefighting purposes is small. According to the 5-years
data provided by the Addis Ababa City Fire and Emergency Prevention and Rescue
Authority, the monthly requirement for firefighting ranges from 68.5 m 3/month to 634
m3/month. This scale of consumption is generally negligible when compared to the
overall monthly water consumption of the city.
Consequently, there is no need to consider firefighting demand separately in the current

and future water demand of the city. However, the instantaneous water demand during
a major fire-fighting event may be large compared to the hourly draw-off. This situation
would normally be taken into consideration at the design and modelling stages of the
reticulation system.
2.3.7 Current situation
Using the estimated per capita water demands (Table 2.14) and the projected
percentage share of the four modes of services (Table 2.12), the current and future
water demands have been calculated. The current (mid-2013) unrestricted water
demands are presented in Table 2.17 (detailed calculations are given in Appendix A2).
Table 2.17 Estimated 2013 water demands (MEDIUM)
*AADD
Consumer Class Remarks
(m3/day)
Domestic Demand Population 3,503,165
House Connection 37,834
Yard Connection Private 75,668
Yard Connection Common 61,305
Public Fountain 19,618
Sub-total 194,425

*AADD
Consumer Class Remarks
(m3/day)
Commercial/Administrative 77,770 40% of the Domestic Demand
Industrial 68,048 35% of the Domestic Demand
Net Demand 340,243
Non-Revenue Water 136,097 40% of Net Demand
GROSS DEMAND 476,340
Note: AADD = Annual Average Daily Demand
The estimated present day supply (from the Final Report Tasks 123, 28 February 2014)
is 343,000 m3/d. With NRW calculated to be 137,000 m3/d, the volume of water actually
supplied to consumers is 206,000 m3/d, approximately 60% of the Net Demand. The
overall per capita demand, including Commercial/Administrative and Industrial needs, is
97 l/c/d (excluding NRW) or 136 l/c/d (including NRW).
2.3.8 Future demand forecasts
Forecasted demand for 2020 and 2030 have also been developed as summarised in
Table 2.18 (detailed calculations are reproduced in Appendix A7).
Table 2.18 Estimated 2020 and 2030 Water Demands
AADD (m3/d)
Consumer
2020 2030
Class
LOW MEDIUM HIGH LOW MEDIUM HIGH
Domestic:
HC 268,505 285,915 304,351 383,501 422,716 465,729
YCP 119,336 127,073 135,267 170,445 187,873 206,991
YCC 35,801 38,122 40,580 21,914 20,129 22,178
PF 11,934 12,707 13,527 7,305 8,052 8,871
Sub-total 435,575 463,817 493,726 583,166 638,771 703,769
Comm./Admin. 174,230 185,527 197,490 233,266 255,508 281,508
Industrial 152,451 162,336 172,804 204,108 223,570 246,319
Net Demand 762,256 811,680 864,020 1,020,540 1,117,850 1,231,596
NRW 228,677 243,504 259,206 204,108 223,570 246,319

GROSS
990,932 1,055,184 1,123,226 1,224,648 1,341,419 1,477,915
DEMAND

3.0 TASK 5: ASSESS THE ADDITIONAL WATER RESOURCES POTENTIAL
3.1 Sibilu catchment
3.1.1 Background
In a hydro-meteorological context, Addis Ababa is entirely located in the Awash River

basin. More specifically, the city is situated in upper Awash sub-basin at 9.03°N latitude
and 38.76°E longitude. The partly forested volcanic mountain of Entoto, rising to an
elevation over 3000 mAMSL, is the main topographic divide forming the northern
boundary of Addis Ababa, and also forms part of the surface water divide between the
Upper Nile (commonly called Abay) and Awash River basins. In the past, the surface, as
well as ground, water resources for the City emanated from the upper north-western
zones of the Awash basin. Since the early 1950s, surface water stored in the impounding
reservoirs of Gefersa, Legedadi and Dire have been one of the main sources of drinking
water for the city.
Previous studies under the Water III aegis have identified a number of potential surface
water resources (Seureca,1991; AESL,1998; TAHAL,2004). Alongside the expansion and
rehabilitation activities on the existing surface water resources and treatment plants, the
Sibilu and Gerbi dam developments have been identified as the principal potential
surface water resources in the adjacent reaches of the Nile basin for supplying Addis
Ababa city and environs.
This Report reviews and assesses the yield estimates from the Sibilu catchment
presented by the most recent consultant (TAHAL, 2004) and its predecessors in this
field. The hydro-meteorological databases used for potential yield estimates have also
been investigated and updated as appropriate.
As the implementation of the Gerbi Dam is about to commence, this current evaluation is
mainly focused on the Sibilu dam and impoundment. Observations are also presented on
the potential impact of Gerbi dam on the downstream Sibilu dam.
3.1.2 Catchment description
3.1.2.1 Administrative
Sibilu catchment is located north of Addis Ababa city, over the Entoto Hills, see Figure
3.1. The catchment falls within the Oromia regional state of north and west Shewa
Administrative Zones (Figure 3.2).
Some 60% of the catchment is located in Sululta woreda, 21% is in Mulu woreda of the
north Shewa Zone. The remaining 19% of the catchment is located in the Walmara
woreda of West Shewa Zone.

The site of the proposed Sibilu dam is located along the Sibilu River, some 2.5 km west
of Chancho city (42 km north of Addis Ababa) on the road to Muger Cement quarry.
Figure 3.1: Sibilu Catchment (Location, extent and principal rivers)

Figure 3.2: Administrative woredas in the Sibilu and Gerbi catchment
3.1.2.2 Physiographic
A catchment delineation for Sibilu was performed using a Digital Elevation Model (DEM)
obtained from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission Radiometer (ASTER), which has
a 30m horizontal resolution. Nearby river gauging stations, including Sibilu, Deneba,
Gerbi and Roba, were used for the delineation processes (the gauging stations were later
used as the sub-basins’ names).
Proper coordinate system projection in the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) of Zone
37 North is used throughout this report. The catchment delineation was performed using
one of the surface water model called SWAT (available from http://swat.tamu.edu/. free
of charge).
From the basin delineation, it was calculated that the Sibilu catchments covers an area
of 481 km2. It is noted that the calculated areal extent of this catchment differs slightly
from the catchment area reported in the database of the Ministry of Water and Energy
(MoWE), which indicates a catchment area of 489 km2. The difference arises because our
delineation was calculated considering the Sibilu dam axis as the basin outlet, which is
located upstream of the Muger River near Chancho gauging station.

The catchment is characterised by elevations ranging between 2439 and 3386 mAMSL. It
is drained by four interconnected river systems (see Figures 3.1 and 3.14):
 Sibilu river (24 km),
 Deneba river (29 km),
 Gerbi river (18 km), and
 Roba river (8 kms).
The lengths of river course indicated in the parentheses are the longest flow paths
leading to the sub-basin outlets.
A summary of Sibilu catchment and its sub-basins is given in Table 3.1.
Table 3.1: Summary of physiographic characteristics of Sibilu catchment

Basin Outlet
Average Lowest Highest
Area Coordinates
Sub-basin Elevation Elevation Elevation
(km2)
(mAMSL) (mAMSL) (mAMSL) Latitude Longitude
Sibilu 274.63 2687.09 2439 3386 9.159 38.742
Deneba 126.65 2622.24 2464 2877 9.257 38.682
Gerbi 60.86 2703.59 2596 2923 9.149 38.618
Roba 19.15 2753.18 2556 3213 9.244 38.794
3.1.2.3 Yield estimates
a) Previous Studies
The various consultants have estimated the potential yields of Sibilu catchment using
different methodologies (see Table 3.3). Their outcomes differ mainly because the
hydrological and meteorological data available at the times of their analyses were
limited.
The yield estimates developed by the various consultants are described below.
 Seureca (1991) Prefeasibility Study
During the feasibility study Seureca used the following methodology in order to estimate
the yield of Sibilu catchment. Their analysis was entirely based on the monthly flow data
of the Muger river near Chancho (Code: 112002) that spanned a period from 1958 to
1988, as follows
 Minimum flows were calculated each year for 1, 3 ,6 ,9 ,10 and 12

months;
 Frequency analysis was applied to derive a curve of Minimum flow versus
Recurrence interval for each duration;

 1 in 10 Annual Recurrence Interval (ARI) minimum flow was extracted.
The analysis concluded that the Muger river (near the Sibilu dam site) generated an
average annual runoff of 470,000 m 3/km2. The computation of minimum flow for Gerbi
was based on the adjustment of minimum flow rate for Sibilu catchment area and runoff
rate. Finally, the yield and storage of the catchment was calculated.
 AE-HBT AGRA (1998)
The yield estimates developed by AE-HBT AGRA were developed from data from 3 rivers:
 Muger river near Chancho (112002),
 Sibilu river near Chancho (112014) and
 Deneba river near Chancho (112013).
36 years of monthly river flow data from the Muger station were used for estimation of
the yield. The yield estimates were developed using a system simulation model that
incorporated monthly flow, evapotranspiration, riparian flow release, spill and
abstractions for town water supply. The overall analysis was made considering the 90%
reliability level of supply.
Unlike the approach of Seureca, the variable daily evaporation values were considered
and the sediment loads were taken into account with respect to the drainage area and
trap efficiency of upstream dams. The simulation model used included all the inflows
from the direct rainfall on the surface of dam (~15% of catchment area). This approach
counts the rainfall twice.
 TAHAL (2004)
The starting point for yield estimates was a detailed review of previous consultants’
work. Their analysis was subsequently entirely based on the Muger river near Chancho.
The extension of data for the analysis period was divided into two. The first period is
from 1995-2002 based on the rating curve established by their predecessor AE-HBT; the
second period is based on rainfall-runoff relationship between Addis Ababa Observatory
station and the Muger river near Chancho gauging station. Even though their result
showed a relatively good relationship, the second option seems to be unrealistic as the
rainfall station is located outside the Sibilu catchment.
Following the data analysis, water balance models were established for three scenarios;
 Sibilu dam only,
 Gerbi dam only, and
 Sibilu with Gerbi.

In addition to the 3 scenarios, different environmental and riparian release rules under a
range of restriction policies were investigated. Simulation with the water balance model
starts each month at a particular level of storage, the inflow to the storage is added,
evaporation, extractions, riparian releases and environmental flows are subtracted thus
giving the required storage at the end of each month. For the Gerbi dam the Gerbi river
flow was also generated from that of the Muger river located further downstream.
 WAPCOS (2013)- Gerbi Dam only
Following a detailed review of their predecessors, WAPCOS have recently estimated the
Gerbi catchment yield using five methods. The methods were based on the flow and
were performed using flow data generated from two gauging stations (Sibilu and Muger)
located downstream of the Gerbi gauging station. The generation of flow data was
basically using catchment area as an index, that is a catchment area analogy approach.
b) Present Study
In our study of the yield estimate from the Sibilu catchment, two different methods were
used. The first method is based on a simple mass curve analysis (Rippl Method). The
second is based on a continuous simulation where the probabilities of failure to provide
the required yield is taken into account. It should be noted that we have had access to
more recent data than previous consultants, and particularly to direct flow data for the
Sibilu river. This should be borne in mind when comparing our results to those of
previous consultants. We comment when the differences are substantial.
It is also noted that the data presented in the hydrologic report of the most recent study
by TAHAL (2004), has a number of quality issues. For example the daily flow data for
Muger river near Chancho (112002) in the period 1973 to 1992 are completely different
to those for the time span 1993 to 2002. We have also observed the same quality issue
concern with the data supplied by MoWE for 2005 (see below).
 Preliminary Flow Data checks
Before the analysis and estimation of the water yield, an initial analysis and data check -
a “Mass curve analysis” - was conducted on the daily mean flow data for the Muger and
Sibilu gauging stations. The Muger station has the longer time series (1975 -2009) and
its long term mean flow is approximately 7.7 m 3/s. The Sibilu daily mean flow time
series is shorter (1981-2009).
The Muger data for the year 2005 are substantially greater than that for other years in
the record, see Figure 3.3. This may be a data error, as the low flows are substantially
higher (mostly over 12 m3/s) than for all other years. It was confirmed by the data

provider (MoWE) that this was the in fact the data on record. Because of this anomaly,
data from the year 2005 were not used in subsequent analyses.
Figure 3.3 Muger Daily Mean Flow (DMF) data for 2005
 Extending Sibilu flow data
There is a good relationship between the recorded monthly mean flows at the Muger and
Sibilu stations, see Figure 3.4 and Figure 3.5. The relationship is
MMFMuger = 0.68 MMFSibilu + 0.26
This relationship can be used with confidence with the Muger data to extend the Sibilu
MMF data to cover the period 1975 – 2009. This generated data is used in the analyses.
Figure 3.4 Relationship between Muger and Sibilu Monthly Mean Flow series

Figure 3.5 Monthly flow series comparison of Muger and Sibilu Rivers
 Environmental Flows
When river flows are retained in a reservoir, a certain minimum flow must be released at
all times to maintain the environmental and ecological conditions in the downstream
section of the river. An initial estimate of the appropriate minimum flow was obtained by
studying the natural (pre-dam) flow regime. For this purpose, a flow duration curve has
been constructed from the Daily Mean Flow data for Sibilu, Figure 3.6.
Figure 3.6 Flow Duration Curve, Sibilu.

Note that the vertical axis scale is logarithmic to provide greater resolution at low flows.
The 95% low flow is 0.058 m3/s (the brown dashed line) and the 90% flow is 0.075 m3/s
(green dashed line). For subsequent analyses we have assumed an environmental flow
release of 0.075 m3/s.
 Evaporation
The average monthly evaporation (as developed by AE-HBT AGRA) is presented in Table
3.2.
Table 3.2 Potential evaporation (mm)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
112 99 112 108 92 78 67 66 75 102 98 97
If the area of the reservoir is known, then the equivalent potential loss can be expressed
as a flow and this is added to the required draw-off and environmental flows. In most
months the evaporation losses exceed the inflows, and generally the greatest net inflows
occur for the months July, August and September and occasionally for later months.
 Method-1: Mass Curve Analysis (Rippl Method)
A preliminary mass curve analysis was performed with the extended Sibilu data set. The
mass curve analysis (taking account of evaporation) indicates that the relationship
between Storage Volume and Draw-off (Yield) is as shown in Table 3.3 and Figure 3.7,
which are for yields varying from 10% to 95% of the mean annual flow.
Table 3.3 Storage- Yield relationship (Mass-curve/Rippl method)
Constant draw-off Storage Volume

(m /s)
3
(m x 10 /day)
3 3 Required (Mm3)
0.58 51 14.36
0.88 76 21.28
1.17 101 28.20
1.46 126 35.12
1.75 152 42.04
2.05 177 48.95
2.34 202 59.59
2.63 227 75.73
2.92 253 91.87
3.22 278 108.01
3.51 303 124.16
3.80 329 140.30
4.09 354 156.44
4.39 379 185.32
4.68 404 254.94
4.97 430 340.89
5.26 455 430.83

Figure 3.7 Relationship between Storage volume and constant yield

(Mass-Curve/Rippl analysis)
Note that the curve shows, as expected, a diminishing rate of increase of yield for
increasing storage volume. There is a good return for increasing capacity up to a volume
of 200 Mm3, (Point A) and a declining rate of increased yield from 200 to 500 Mm3,
(Point B).
This simple analysis is preliminary and is done as much as a data consistency check as it
is for design purposes. However, it provides a good initial indication of potential yield. A
typical single mass curve analysis is illustrated in Figures 3.8 and 3.9.
Figure 3.8 Single Mass curve analysis (entire)

Figure 3.9 Single Mass curve analysis (portion – close-up)
While this preliminary method does not provide a probability of failure (this will be
done with a more complex method described below), it usually gives a conservative
estimate of potential yield, especially when a long time-series of data is available.
 Method-2: Estimate Considering Probabilities of Failure to provide

required yield
Probability Matrix Method
In the context of this report, the term “Failure” refers to the inability of the impounded
reservoir to provide the specified yield in any one year.
This is analysed first in terms of probabilities, using Gould’s Probability Matrix

Method. The resulting relationship between Storage, yield and probability of failure is
shown as a failure probability surface in Figure 3.10. The line for a probability of failure
of 5% is shown as the solid blue line and it has two major sections. For small storages
and small yields it shows an increase in yield as the Reservoir storage increases.
However, at the point marked “A” the line becomes very steep indicating that even very
large increases in reservoir storage will produce relatively small increases in yield at the
5% failure rate. Point A is indicative of a yield of 4.5 m3/s (388,800 m3/d) and a
corresponding storage volume of 220 Mm3.
The same effect is produced when a probability of failure of 10% is considered (shown as
the red line); that is, an initial increase in yield with storage, but then a break point
(Point B) for a yield of 4.8 m3/s (414,720 m3/d) after which only very small increases in
yield result from very large storage increases.

Figure 3.10 Probability of failure surface, showing relationship between

reservoir storage volume and yield (Gould’s Probability Matrix
Method).
While the ultimate choice of reservoir volume will be concluded from a Cost-Benefit
balance between the value of the water and the cost of providing it (see Section 3.1.7),
this analysis shows the relationship between the reliable yield that may be achieved at a
specified probability of failure (5% and 10%) from a reservoir with a specified volume
and thus provides the information required for the Cost-Benefit analysis.
 Comparison with simple mass curve analysis
The Probability Matrix Method analysis provides yields from a given reservoir volume
that are smaller than that given by the much simpler Mass-curve method used in the
preliminary analysis. The former only considers the 35 years of data available for Sibilu,
while the latter considers 15 to 18 different behavioural variations on these 35 years,
and so considers approximately 500 years of simulation, which may include more severe
cases than those considered in the simpler mass-curve method.
 Extended Deficit Analysis
As an added check on the results, an Extended deficit analysis was also applied. This
provided the Probability of failure surface shown in Figure 3.11. The resulting lines
suggest a somewhat higher yield for the same storage and probability of failure than
Gould’s probability matrix method. However, a detailed examination of the results, which
involved a frequency analysis of a sequence of “deficits” (defined here as times when the

reservoir is not full) showed that in this case for the higher yields the frequency analysis
is dominated by a single large deficit lasting almost 12 years (during which the reservoir
did not fill).
Figure 3.11 Probability of failure surface, showing relationship between

reservoir storage volume and required draft (Extended Deficit
Analysis)
We consider this over-dependence on a single extreme deficit to cast doubt on the

reliability of the extended deficit method for this case and so the estimated yields in this
Report have been derived using Gould’s Probability Matrix Method.
 Summary of the Yield Estimates
The various estimates of potential yields from the Sibilu catchment to date are
summarized in Table 3.3.
As may be seen from the table, the different consultants have derived disparate yield
estimates even though the same hydro-meteorological stations were used. The most
probable reasons to these difference are:
 the methods followed,

 the availability and length of time-series data, and
 the consideration of various supply restrictions in the estimates.

Table 3.4 Summary of yield estimates (90% reliability level)
Yield Storage
No. Consultant Year Scheme Remarks
(m3/d) (Mm3)
1 Seureca 1991 Sibilu only 370,000 100.76 Reduced yield
from 2
Sibilu with Gerbi 327,000 89.26 impoundments
Gerbi only 37,000 10.90 because of
increased
evaporation
2 AE-HBT 1998 Sibilu only 403,000 116.00 Reduced yield
from 2
AGRA Sibilu with Gerbi 352,000 103.00 impoundments
Gerbi only 44,500 14.60 because of
increased
evaporation
3 TAHAL 2004 Sibilu only 618,000 347.00 Increased yield
from 2
Sibilu with Gerbi 597,000 300.00
impoundments?
Gerbi only 67,200 48.49
4 WAPCOS 2013 Gerbi only 73,000 48.49
5 NOD 2013 Sibilu only 428,000 220.00 FSL 2562 mAMSL
Sibilu only 159,000 41.98 FSL 2552 mAMSL
Sibilu only 98,000 21.3 FSL 2550 mAMSL
3.1.2.4 Other users
From a water resources and hydrologic point of view there are no significant surface
water abstraction activities currently underway in the Sibilu catchment. There is also no
evidence of any significant dependence by downstream users on the Sibilu waters.
However, the proposed construction of the Gerbi dam (which is on one of the main
tributaries of the Sibilu river), will have both positive and negative impacts that will be
described in the later in this Report.
3.1.3 Data analysis
3.1.3.1. Data availability
There are numerous meteorological and hydrological data observation stations located
throughout Ethiopia. Meteorological data are managed by the National Meteorological
Services Agency (NMSA), and hydrological data are managed by the Federal Ministry of
Water and Energy (MoWE). Summaries of relevant meteorological and hydrological data
are presented in this Report. Specific data analysis is confined to the stations in the
Sibilu catchment.

3.1.3.2. Meteorological data
Numerous ground observation stations, of different classes, are located around Addis
Ababa city. However, the majority of these weather gauging stations are missing some
time-series data. A total of 34 stations were screened, based on the availability of
relatively complete and continuous time-series data. Twenty-one of the 34 gauging
stations are located in the Upper Awash basin; ten stations are located in the Abay River
Basin, and the remaining 4 gauging stations are located in the Omo Gibe River Basin.
The different class type of gauging stations include;
 6 are Class 1,
 2 are Class 2,
 4 are Class 3,
 23 are Class 4.
Class 1 stations record all types of meteorological observations, Class 4 stations record
only rainfall.
Appendix B1 summarises the characteristics of the selected climate gauging station

around Addis Ababa. The available climatic data together with percentage of missing
records and the number of rain days, that is days with rainfall amount >0 mm, are given
in the same table. The monthly rainfall record at each gauging station are presented in
Appendix B2.
The data sets at all the gauging stations have been checked for their quality and
completeness. An isohyetal map of annual rainfall around Addis Ababa has been
produced using simple geo-statistical interpolation methods, see Figure 3.12. From the
isohyetal map it is possible to conclude that the long term Mean Annual Rainfall (MAR)
over the Sibilu catchment ranges between 1200 to 1300 mm, whilst that of Addis Ababa
is between 1000 to 1200 mm.
Site specific climatic characteristics around Addis in relation to the existing surface water
were presented in Report Tasks 123 of this consultancy service. In this Report Tasks 456
only selected stations in the Sibilu catchment are analysed to evaluate the climatic
characteristics of the area.

Figure 3.12 Isohyetal contours over Addis Ababa and Sibilu catchment
Within Sibilu catchment and its vicinity there are 5 climatic stations that have relatively
complete time-series data. Quality checks were performed on those available datasets
through graphical inspections and qualitative assessment of the time-series data.
In the periods where there is some data missing, a simple averaging method has been
used to fill the gaps. Figures 3.13a to 3.13f illustrate the long term average monthly
rainfall and temperature characteristics of the selected climatic stations.

Figure 3.13a Monthly climatic characteristics at Addis Ababa Bole
Figure 3.13b Monthly climatic characteristics at Addis Ababa Observatory
Figure 3.13c Monthly climatic characteristics at Addis Alem

Figure 3.13d Monthly climatic characteristics at Chancho
Figure 3.13e Monthly climatic characteristics at Shola Gebeya
Figure 3.13f Monthly climatic characteristics at Sululta
The above figures confirm that the periods of greatest rainfall occur between June and
September. These high rainfall periods coincide with the recorded high flow periods of
the river systems.
Addis Ababa Observatory has the longest record of all the rainfall stations. Figure 3.14
illustrates the monthly rainfall distribution of the selected stations around Sibilu. The box
plots are produced by converting the daily rainfall time series into monthly time series.

The upper bound of the box plot shows the 75 th percentile (3rd quartile) and the lower
bound shows the 25th percentile (1st quartile). The difference of the two gives us the
Inter Quartile Range (IRQ), the magnitude of which shows the variability of the rainfall
characteristics. In all the box plots shown in Figure 3.14, the IQR is maximum during
the rainy seasons. The mean values are also closer to the 25 th percentile than that of the
75th percentile, which indicates a skewed distribution pattern of the rainfall.
Figure 3.14 Monthly distribution of rainfall around Sibilu Catchment
3.1.3.3. Hydrological Data
River flow and sediment datasets for the river basins in Ethiopia are managed by the
Hydrology and Water Quality Directorate of the MoWE. For the Sibilu Catchment there
are 3 main gauging stations; the Gerbi near Sululta (112043), Sibilu near Chancho
(112014), and Muger near Chancho (112002). Gerbi River is a tributary of the Sibilu
River. The Sibilu River is in turn a tributary of the Muger River. Downstream of the Sibilu
gauging station near Chancho, the Roba river drains into the Muger River. The Muger
River is thus the main river system that drains the Sibilu Catchment, see Figure 3.15.
Summaries definitions of each station are given in Table 3.5 whilst monthly flow data are
reproduced in Appendix B3.

Figure 3.15 Sibilu catchment with its main gauging stations
Table 3.5 Summary of river gauging stations in the Sibilu Catchment
Station River Gauging AREA Data

SL.No. Latitude Longitude
Code Name station (km2) Availability
1 112002 Muger Nr. CHANCHO 9o18' N 38o44' E 489 1975-2009
2 112014 Sibilu Nr. CHANCHO 9o14' N 38o45' E 375 1980-2009
3 112015 Roba NR. CHANCHO 9o15' N 38o46' E 15 1981-2009
4 --- Gerbi Nr. SULULTA 9o09' N 38o40' E 89 1990-2009
a) Muger river near Chancho
The Muger gauging station also has relatively long records, dating back to 1965. The
station is equipped with a stilling well and an automatic water level recorder located
under the bridge carrying the Chancho-Derba road. However, the recording station was
moved a short distances downstream when a hydraulic jump destroyed the original one.
The newly established (post-1975) station was then equipped with a staff gauge and a
cable way for the flow measurement.
The available data record spans from 1975 to 2009. There is a small number of missing
flow data, which were filled considering the dry seasons and wet seasons separately at
the same gauging station.

Figure 3.16 Flow duration curve of Muger River near Chancho
The stream flow time series of the station has 35 years of substantially complete daily
data for the period of 1975 to 2009. For the periods where there are no records,
averages of the values for the same date and month from previous years were used to
fill the missing values.
Figure 3.16 shows the flow duration curve (FDC) produced developed from the available
daily flow data. The median daily discharge, at a 50% probability, is approximately
0.398 m3/s. At 90% probability (which can be assumed as a contribution to the low
flow), the discharge is about 0.111 m3/sec. The daily peak flows can exceed 200 m3/s,
and the low flows are around 0.01 m3/s.
Taking the averages of the daily values for each months, the peak flows occurs every
year from July to September, with the peak month flow occurring in August, see Figure
3.17. A consistent slope of the cumulative mass curve at Muger suggests the total
volume of runoff generated each year is approximately similar, see Figure 3.18.
Figure 3.17 Annual Hydrograph of Muger River near Chancho (1975-2009)

Figure 3.18 Cumulative mass flow curve at Muger river
b) Sibilu river near Chancho
The available time-series record for the Sibilu River near Chancho gauging station spans
from 1981 to 2009, again with some missing values. The mean daily flow over the 29
years of records is some 5.8 m3/s. The median discharge, that is the flow at 50%
probability, is about 0.08 m3/s.
Based on the historic time series data obtained from MoWE, the maximum flow can
reach 100 m3/s, and the minimum flows are around 0.01 m3/s, Figure 3.19. At 95%
probability, the flow is about 0.058 m3/s. The monthly flow dating back to 1975, as
shown in Figure 3.20, was generated from the Muger data.
Figure 3.19 Daily Flow hydrograph at Sibilu River.

Figure 3.20 Flow duration curve of Sibilu near Chancho
c) Roba river near Chancho
The Roba river is a relatively small tributary contributing flow to the Muger river
downstream of the Sibilu gauging station. It drains an area of 15 km2, which accounts
for only a small portion of the Sibilu catchment. The time-series data at Roba gauging
station was available from 1981 to 2009, with some missing values in 1986, 1988, 1998
and 2001.
Figure 3.21 Daily flow hydrograph at Roba
The peak flows in some years exceeds 10 m3/s. The small volumes of the 90th and 95th
percentiles, as shown Figure 3.22 suggests that the contribution from the stream during
dry period is negligible.

Figure 3.22 Flow Duration Curve of Roba River near Chancho.
3.1.4 Yield enhancement
3.1.4.1. Watershed Management
The impoundment retained by Sibilu dam would be located downstream of Sululta town
and the new “Satellite towns” which are part of the development plan of the responsible
local government. This location is not only at risk of pollution of the impounded water,
but is also susceptible to over-exploitation of the available water for various purposes.
Small scale hand-dug wells are scarce among the fresh water consumers in the area,
allied with the use of the area as a grazing land, means that the allocation of some of
the impounded water for the local consumers for domestic and small scale horticultural
supplies should be considered as part of the Water III project.
An evaluation of the Sibilu watershed showed that the physical characteristics of the
basin do not constitute a high level of risk regarding pollution of groundwater by
infiltration. However, the catchment area is quite sensitive to run-off which is another
mechanism of pollution transfer. Soil properties have been modified by agricultural and
demographic pressure on the basin. If continued, this pressure will lead to a
deterioration of soil physical properties.
Successions of crops harvested, animal feeding with crop residues and dry animal dung
combustion have reduced the organic matter of the surface horizon. This reduces soil
structural stability and increase soil erosion. Furthermore, animal pressure (overgrazing)
during the dry season on shrub land and grassland reduce soil roughness, plant
protection and causes soil packing. Finally, land tenure problems may limit the
implementation of soil conservation measures. Applying proper mitigation measures to

such watershed issues can be considered as one of the means for water yield
enhancements of the Sibilu catchment.
3.1.4.2 Watershed transfer and Hydro-networking
Watershed transfer is a mechanism by which a water resource from one catchment is

transferred to another nearby catchment through any artificial means. This can be
achieved either through pumping (allowing pipe flow) or construction of surface
channels, or pipelines or tunnels, to allow gravity flow from one river system to another.
In SEURECA’s study (1991) one of the options investigated for enhancing the yield of
Sibilu catchment was through watershed transfer mechanisms. It was proposed that any
surplus water from Gefersa I and III could be pumped to Gerbi during rainy seasons.
However, the current hydrologic regime does not allow such activities for two reasons.
Firstly, the land use land use characteristics over the entire area have changed
considerably as a result of the expansion of the nearby small towns. Secondly, the
Gefersa WTP facilities were rehabilitated in 2009 in order to handle the expected
increases in abstractions from that catchment.
3.1.5 Reservoir simulation
Reservoir simulations were run for the proposed Sibilu dam considering various heights
of the dam. The consideration of different reservoir height was to evaluate the back
water impoundment effect upstream of the dam. The major aim was to protect the
existing developed areas in the vicinity of the Sibilu reservoir including the national trunk
road, the tannery, and other industrial, commercial and residential facilities.
As the tasks of this current study included a review of previous consultants’ studies, the
stage-storage-yield relationships established by previous consultants, in particular
TAHAL who had brought the project to final design and tender dossier preparation stage,
were assessed for the initial inputs to our reservoir simulation. The full supply level (FSL)
of the dam designed by TAHAL was 2562 mAMSL, providing a storage volume of 347.66
Mm3 and an estimated yield (90% probability) of 618,000 m3/d.
Our initial estimate of the stage/area/volume relationship for the Sibilu basin, using the
Digital Elevation Model (DEM) at a 30m x 30m grid, differed significantly from the TAHAL
estimates. As this relationship has major implications regarding the dam operating level
a comprehensive topographical survey of the basin was undertaken. The survey
confirmed that the actual basin topography was broadly similar to that of the TAHAL
study and differed widely from the DEM version.
However, there was a substantial divergence between the TAHAL yield estimates and
those carried out under this study, as may be seen in Table 3.3. We believe that the

TAHAL estimates were overstated as a consequence of the data input errors, particularly
with respect to river flows, as described in Section 3.1.2.1. The TAHAL approach used
simulations based on inflows for the Muger river, part of which were generated through a
regression relationship with an extended monthly rainfall data at Addis Ababa.
Consequently, their flow and thus yield estimates are appreciably higher than our
estimates. Their use of flow data from the Muger river rather than from the Sibilu river,
which are lower, further accentuated their yield estimates.
At a FSL of 2562 mAMSL the reservoir will inundate a number of significant public and
private infrastructure components, including:
 National trunk road between Sululta and Chancho,
 8 industrial/commercial facilities, including the tannery at Sululta,
 A range of residential and small-scale commercial enterprises.
Accordingly, the stage/volume/yield relationships for Sibilu with 3 different FSLs were
evaluated to assess the diminution of yield with lowering the FSL but avoiding flooding of
the physical infrastructure.
3.1.5.1 Option A: FSL 2562m AMSL (Infrastructure submerged)
At this FSL all the physical infrastructure within the impounded area will be submerged
and must be re-located, preferably outside the Sibilu catchment for facilities with a high
risk potential such as the tannery.
The volume of water stored behind the dam is 347.66 Mm 3 and the estimated yields at
this FSL are 418,000 m3/d (90% probability) and 408 m3/d (95%).
3.1.5.2 Option B: FSL 2552m AMSL (Infrastructure unaffected)
The ground level at the tannery is estimated to be 2552m AMSL; only sections of the
national road would be submerged and these could be raised on embankments above
the water level.
The volume of water stored behind the dam is 41.98 Mm3 and the estimated yields at
this FSL are 159,000 m3/d (90% probability) and 156,000 m3/d (95%).
These yields are less than 50% of the unrestricted potential yields from Sibilu catchment
but still represent a significant addition to Addis Ababa’s water resources.
3.1.5.3 Option C: FSL 2550m AMSL (Road and other infrastructure unaffected)
The volume of water stored behind the dam is 21.37 Mm3 and the estimated yields at
this FSL are 98,000 m3/d (90% probability) and 95,000 m3/d (95%).

These yields are substantially lower than the Sibilu catchment can produce and would
result in a severe diminution in potential supplies from this source. Consequently, this
option has been discarded from further consideration
It should be noted at this stage that the provision of Gerbi Dam upstream of the Sibilu
reservoir does not provide a greater yield from Sibilu catchment; indeed there is a minor
reduction in overall yield. However, the construction of Gerbi has two positive effects,
namely:
 Reduction in sediment load transported to Sibilu,
 Improvement in the city’s water supplies in the short-term.
3.1.6 Environmental impact analysis
3.1.6.1 Introduction and Methodology
This Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) review for the Sibilu dam and reservoir site
updates and enhances the study outputs of the previous studies, especially the study
conducted by TAHAL (2004), and uses recent site assessments and consultations. The
current proposals for the development of Sibilu dam are considered and reviewed with
regard to environmental protection and social sustainability.
3.1.6.2 Consultation with Stakeholders
Consultation sessions (see Figure 3.23) were arranged with several stakeholders
involved in current and proposed projects, to identify stakeholder views and canvass
opinions regarding the project objectives. The administration and the local populace
were found to be well aware of the project and stated that they have been involved in
and were interviewed during the previous studies. They have indicated that the area is
growing fast both in terms of population and investment of developments. They also
expect that because of the need to acquire land for the reservoir site, and the
compensation costs for the existing infrastructure and properties located in or near the
site, the project may impose unsustainable coasts on the promoter and owner.
Figure 3.23 Consultation with the Sululta Woreda Administration

3.1.6.3 Environmental Scoping
The scoping of the environmental conditions of the project is concerned with:
 the definition of the project influence area,
 the identification of Valued Environmental Components (VEC) falling within the

project influence area, and
 the identification of the likely project impacts.
a) Location and Size of the Inundated Reservoir Area
A number of variations in data were identified when comparing and contrasting the
previous studies conducted concerning the Sibilu dam and reservoir project with the data
gathered for the present study. Earlier studies estimated the Sibilu catchment area to be
486 km2, while the current review estimates it as 481 km 2. The minor difference
observed between the two estimates is probably attributed to differences in approaches
and methodology used for the hydrological mapping and analyses.
The land area inundated by the stored water at the maximum dam height (Option A,
Section 3.1.5.1) was estimated at 52 km2 by previous studies and 60 km2 by the current
review study. For Option B (Section 3.1.5.2) the inundated area at FSL in substantially
reduced to 20 km2, with a consequent reduction in the properties and infrastructure
affected by the project.
b) Valued Environmental Components (VEC)
Site visits, in combination with the stakeholder consultations and document

assessments, enabled the identification and definition of the Valued Environmental
Components for the project. Accordingly, the project influence area, valued
environmental components within the influence area, and likely impacts on those natural
environmental components have been found to remain much the same as that of
previous study results. However, changes have been observed in the land use
characteristics and socio-economic parameters.
There are several natural resources and manmade assets that fall within the project
influence areas. The major environmental considerations include:
 Population settlement sites, industries, infrastructure, houses and properties

within the catchment of the prospective water sources;
 Livestock grazing land, farmlands and crop fields;
 Water resources both within the catchment and at downsides;
 Disfigured landscape and soil erosion problems at ancillary worksites;

 Plantation trees and bush covers;
 Localised air quality deterioration.
3.1.6.4 Baseline Environmental Conditions
a) Bio-Physical Environmental Characteristics
The biophysical environmental condition of the project area had been assessed and
presented in the 2004 report. In that report, a detailed assessment on the following
major components was presented with regard to the natural environment:
 Terrain characteristics within the Sibilu catchment,
 Climatic conditions of the project area,
 Soil characteristics and types,
 Geology of Sibilu dam and reservoir area,
 Seismicity of the project area,
 Land use and land cover of Sibilu catchment,
 Flora and fauna of the project area,
 Water quality of Sibilu River,
 Archaeological and cultural heritages,
 Existing and potential environmental problems of the project area.
Figure 3.24 Proposed reservoir area along national road (L) and industries
within the potential inundation area (R)
The current situation for the environmental factors listed above remain more or less the
same. However, changes in land use have continued to increase, especially from rural,
small-scale agricultural use to urbanized settings and industrial development zones.

b) Land use/land cover
According to information provided by the Sululta Woreda Administration, there are

already over 32 industries and manufacturing enterprises in operation within the
potential catchment area, including a tannery. More development requests are being
regularly received by the administration for further investments in the area. Sululta town
has become a source of potentially adverse impacts on the proposed Sibilu dam and
reservoir as it continues to expand in all directions within the catchment. However,
expansion towards the potential inundation area seems to have been restricted to some
extent; both industrial development and population settlement growth appear to have
retarded in that direction. According to the Sululta Woreda Investment Bureau, major
investment expansion sites are located on the RHS of the existing (Addis Ababa –
Gojam) national trunk road, towards the hillsides. This is possibly because of an
awareness of the envisaged Addis Ababa Water Supply Phase III (Sibilu Reservoir).
Over the course of time, the land use and land cover of the catchment has also shown
significant changes. According to 2004 EIA report, out of the 55.7 km 2 of land expected
to be inundated for the Sibilu Reservoir, about 14.7 km was used as cultivated land,
26.3 km was kept as hay or pasture land, and the remaining areas of the inundated area
consisted of forests, housing compounds and waste lands. Data was recently gathered
from two other sources as a part of this study to assess any changes in land use
distribution patterns. The comparison is shown in the table below:
Table 3.6 Land Use Characteristics within Sibilu Catchment
Sibilu Catchment Sibilu Catchment Sibilu Catchment

(TAHAL 2004) (20121) (2014/132)
Land Use Type
Area Area Area
% % %
(ha) (ha) (ha)
Cultivated land 14,705 28.00 21177 44.00 42,944 89.23
Grass Land and hay
production 26,258 50.00 15209 31.60 846 1.76
Forest and Bush Land 2,626 5.00 5006 10.40 4,339 9.02
Mountainous Area - - 3562 7.40 -
Housing Compounds /
Built-up Area 3,151 6.00 2118 4.40 - -
Urban Expansion Area - - 144 0.30 -

Industrial Sites - - 96 0.20 -
Waste Land and water
logged 5,777 11.00 - - - -
Bare Ground and Gullies - - 818 1.70 -

TOTALS 52,517 100.00 48,130 100.00 48,129 100.00
1
This data was gathered from a Watershed Management Report written in 2013 and referred to
data provided by the Landsat 8 Satellite in June 2013.
2 This data is from the Ethiopian Ministry of Water and Energy and was COLLECTED in 2004.

The data collected as part of the current study was obtained from an internal watershed
management by the consultant and from the Ethiopian Ministry of Water and Energy,
both of which were compiled in 2013. The Watershed Management Report referred to
satellite imagery produced by the Landsat 8 Satellite in June 2013. The Landsat 8
Satellite is the product of a joint venture between the United States Geological Survey
(USGS) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) aimed to acquire
quality land use and land cover data. The land use data collected as from this source did
not consider Waste Land and Water Logged areas interspersed within the catchment
region. The land use data collected from the Ethiopian Ministry of Water and Energy was
compiled in 2013 though the data was obtained in 2004. This land use information
mainly considered the cultivated, grass and forested land contained in the catchment.
An analysis of the data represented above shows several significant changes in the land
use and land cover of the Sibilu catchment area. First, the size of forest and shrubs
cover has increased in the catchment since the 2004 study. The forestation result is
most attributed to the watershed management and soil conservation measures taken as
part of the countrywide initiatives that are being implemented at present. These
measures should be further strengthened and expanded in the degraded land areas of
the catchment. The cultivated land area has increased, while grass covered land has
decreased. This suggests that more land is being disturbed by traditional ploughing and
there is increased usage of agricultural inputs for seasonal crop production. Urbanization
and industrial developments have also substantially increased both in size and variety.
Simultaneously, the land cover of the inundation area remains more or less similar to the
condition it had in 2004. This is a positive indication of the health of the potential
reservoir with regard to soil conservation and pollution risk minimization for the
reservoir.
It should also be noted that there were differences in basic characterizations of the
catchment and area to be inundated due to variations in approaches by the different
studies. The Sibilu catchment area was estimated to cover 486 km2 of land by the
previous study of Seureca, 525 km2 by the Tahal study, and 481 km2 by the current
estimate. The area to be occupied by the reservoir, or inundated land area, is estimated
at 55.7 km2 (TAHAL, 2004) and around 60 km2 and the current review respectively. The
area to be inundated mainly falls in the moderately stocked, cultivated land of the Sibilu
River flood plain. The minor deviations in estimated area size are due to the difference in
approaches and methods used by each of the hydrological analyses.

3.1.6.5 Potential Environmental Impacts
Potential impacts can have two aspects:
 impacts of the project implementation on the environmental resources of the

project area, and
 impacts of the surrounding environment on the reservoir.
These impacts are briefly described below.
The project will have both positive and adverse impacts on the natural environment and
the socio-economic environment of the project area as well as at the national level.
Some of the major potential impacts of the project have been identified and analyses
have been made also by the previous study. Listing and characteristics of the major
likely impacts are reproduced in Appendix C.
These impacts analyses were looked into for further refinement and inclusion of
potentially unforeseen situations. All of the impacts discussed are manageable through
implementation of the appropriate mitigation measures, and monitoring at all stages of
the project implementation. There should be well-established environmental
management system, and a dedicated environmental unit should be established within
AAWSA to handle the responsibility of checking and following up of the environmental
performances of the project at all stages of implementation.
The likely potential impacts expected to be caused by the implementation of the

proposed project are shown in Appendix C. The major beneficial impacts and adverse
environmental impacts anticipated due to the development of the Sibilu reservoir are
summarised below:
a) Potential beneficial impacts
 Provide potable water for Addis Ababa city and surrounding areas;
 Create job opportunities (temporary and long-term);
 Skills transfer to local communities;
 Create unfavourable environment for some disease vectors;
 promote fish production;
 provide habitat for aquatic birds.
These impacts will be enhanced through implementation of further environmental and

social measures that will be proposed during detailed EIA studies.
b) Potential adverse impacts
 land resources and soil erosion;

 downstream water uses and water quality;
 physical infrastructures and properties;
 landscape and changes in land use practices;
 flora and fauna resources;
 sedimentation balance;
 induced seismic activity from the reservoir volume/mass;
 hazards related to operational and/or dam failure and spill way overflows;
 archaeological resources of the inundated area.
The EIA study of 2004 analysed those potential impacts in detail, proposed mitigation
measures for the adverse impacts, and proposed enhancement measures for the
beneficial impacts of the project. The analyses made and proposals provided in the
report are still valid and are also justified by the current review findings.
c) Impacts of the surrounding environment on the reservoir water source
The EIA study has listed potential impacts the surrounding environmental phenomenon
may have on the stored water sources, including:
 Water quality degradation due to land use changes;
 Increased soil material washing in to the reservoir leading to premature

sedimentation;
 Eutrophication from nutrient inflows from the catchment activities.
d) Issues of special concern
The land use within the catchment of Sibilu River is increasingly changing from a rural
and peri-urban situation to a major municipal and industrial type. Developments are
underway along the river shores and within the potential Sibilu reservoir area. This
situation can create a major threat to the wellbeing of the reservoir water. The waste
generated from those settlements and establishments, development activities being
undertaken and associated land disturbance and soil transport to the reservoir may
cause an appreciable degradation of the reservoir functioning and operation.
A significant number of industries were not in existence during the assessment in 2004;
many were only established after the completion of that study. Impacts due to the
urbanization and industrial expansion within the catchment of the reservoir, including
within the potential inundation area, now requires closer attention. Coordinated efforts
among the stakeholders and due considerations during the project implementation
process will be the most fitting approach to addressing these impacts.

Currently intensive developments are growing and expanding both among industrial
establishments and urban settlements. The industries being established, as well as those
already in operation can have significant adverse impacts. Industries, such as the
tannery, generate hazardous wastes that can pollute the water source and also cause
adverse health impacts to the water users.
The extent of waste discharged from the existing tannery was witnessed during a site
visit and subsequently assessed by the project team. Although there is a wastewater
treatment plant located at the tannery site, and the effluent water is regularly
monitored, the storage of sludge and its residual chemical content is of concern.
The wastes emanating from the urban centres of Sululta and Wesserbi will also pose the
risk of significant adverse impacts on the water quality of the reservoir. Situations and
challenges currently being faced at the Legedadi reservoir water may be replicated at the
Sibilu reservoir and could be even more severe.
Some of the potential sources of waste and pollutants to the reservoir water source
include the following:
 Local industries
o Dairy farms
There are several dairy farms located around the periphery of Sibilu Reservoir. These
farms produce various forms of waste, most of which are organic. This waste may
infiltrate the Sibilu catchment and affect the water collected in the proposed reservoir.
This will increase the concentrations of organic material in the water, and may require
additional water treatment processes than have been previously envisaged.
o Water bottling factories
Solid wastes are mainly generated from this source, which if not properly handled can
pose pollution risks within the catchment. Detailed assessments of the waste and the
methods of waste management have to be investigated during subsequent studies.
o Leather production factories
Over 90% of the water that is used in the processing of the leather is discharged as
wastewater. This wastewater is then transported to an on-site wastewater treatment
plant. The water treatment processes are extensive and final effluent is regularly
monitored to ensure that it is not harmful to the environment. The final effluent is then
stored in holding tanks before being released to local rivers.
The sludge content extracted during the water treatment processes are, however, not
treated and contain many residual chemicals used both in the leather production

processes and the water treatment processes. These contents remain within the facility.
Since the facility is located in the area of land expected to be inundated by the reservoir,
under Option A, this area must be carefully cleared and investigated for contamination.
o Cement factories
There are a number of cement factories located along the boundary of the proposed
Sibilu Reservoir. One factory is located very near, less than 1 km from, the proposed
dam axis of the Sibilu Reservoir. However, it is downstream of the reservoir and is
projected to have no direct impact on the reservoir. There is another factory located
along the roadside between the towns of Sululta and Chancho. This factory emits
gaseous, liquid and solid pollutants. The air pollutants include sulfur oxides, nitrogen
oxides, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide and dust loadings. Liquid waste is also
generated from the cement factory, mainly from the overproduction of slurries. On
average, cement factories produce some 3 metric tons of solid waste per ton of cement
produced. In many cases, hazardous wastes are disposed of through the kilns.
o Gypsum factories
Gypsum factories mainly produce solid waste from the processing procedures and liquid
waste from the domestic sanitary facilities within the factory premises. These forms of
waste may have an adverse impact on the immediate natural environment. Thorough
investigations of the factory waste management system are recommended for
subsequent studies.
o Flower farm in Sululta
A flower farm has been established approximately 2 km southeast of the Sibilu Reservoir
site. Flower farms employ fertilizers, herbicides and insecticides. These chemicals may
pollute the water source in the Sibilu catchment and consequently the water stored in
the Sibilu reservoir. This presents potential risks to adjacent ecosystems as well as the
water supply components. Additionally, conventional methods of water treatment are not
effective in removing these constituents. Additional treatment processes may be
required at the water treatment plant, or improvements may be needed on the land use
and change in types of investment, etc. Alternatively, pollution prevention measures
could be implemented at the farm.
o Fuel Depot in Sululta
There is an operational fuel depot located near the town of Sululta. The petroleum
products include gasoline, kerosene and diesel oil. Due to its close proximity to the
proposed Wesserbi Water Treatment Plant and the Sibilu reservoir, which are 2 and 4 km
from the depot respectively, the depot poses risks for water pollution. Potential causes of

water pollution range from spills during fuel transport, spills from depot operation
activities and accidental fires. Water pollution may not only increase the cost of water
treatment but may also compromise the sustainability of the local ecosystems and raise
public health concerns for water supply consumers.
Water pollution is not the only form of pollution that may result from fuel-related
accidents. Local soils may also become contaminated due to fuel spills and accidental
fires. Additionally, various vapors may be emitted from the refined petroleum products
stored in the facility.
o Sululta and Wesserbi towns
The towns located upstream of the Sibilu reservoir, namely Wesserbi and Sululta, have
demonstrated significant expansion and development in recent years. They are expected
to continue to do so in the future. However, due to their locations, water pollution by
municipal wastewaters and solid wastes are potential risks to the water source.
3.1.6.6 Conclusion and Recommendations
a) Conclusion
 The Sibilu river flow is ephemeral and thus not sustainable for continued year
round abstraction raw water. Consequently, it must be stored to ensure supplies
when river flows are inadequate.
 The raw water does not meet the quality standard for potable water supply and
requires treatment prior to distribution.
 The intensification and expansion of urbanization and industrial developments

within the catchment is a major threat for the wellbeing of the sustainable use of
the reservoir water. To ensure its sustainability, it requires well-coordinated and
effective land use planning and watershed management, in order to eliminate the
risks of source pollution by waste generated from those developments.
 Waste generated from some of the industries, such as the tannery, contain toxic
substances that pose potential risks to the public health as well as to the aquatic
organisms in the reservoir and downstream water bodies.
 The issue of such investments and industries producing hazardous wastes is of

major concern among the EIA review findings and a threat to the proposed
reservoir. Subsequent studies must present clear and detailed definitions and
quantification of such waste characteristics and propose strategies to cope with
the situation.

 Eutrophication is a potential problem of the reservoir due to farm inputs (e.g.

fertilizers), farm uses and urban and industrial waste disposal in the drainage
basin. The previous study had estimated the phosphorus load of Sibilu reservoir
and reported that eutrophication was not be a problem in those the
circumstances. However, considering the possible increase of nutrient inflow in
the future due to the increase of population and intensification of urbanization
and industrial development in the catchment, the risk of pollution of the raw
water has already increased and will continue to threaten unless strict waste
management practices and monitoring is put in place.
 As there are no significant and sensitive natural land cover, such as dense natural
forests, or rare and endangered wildlife species in the inundation area, the
project would not cause severe impacts on the local vegetation and wild life
habitat. There are only two endemic plant species, namely Kalanchoe petitiana
and Kniphofia foliosa in the Sibilu catchments. However, both of them are widely
distributed across the highlands of Ethiopia. Also, these species are not observed
in the areas to be inundated.
 The high altitude of the dam site does not favour the ecology of disease vectors,
such as mosquitoes, and the health impacts such as malaria will be insignificant.
 The diversity of aquatic species along with their food web structure will change in
Sibilu drainage basins.
 The inundation of the area will encourage most of the waterfowls to gather near
the site. One such fowl is the Blue-winged Goose, which is endemic to Ethiopia.
There is also a migratory bird, the White-winged Flufftail (Sarothura ayresi),
which is rare and considered to be an endangered wetland species. Increasing
wetland area around the reservoir banks may be advantageous in attracting this
migratory bird.
 Existing riverine fish species would be negatively impacted by the creation of the
dam, which may impair free movement of fish. However, after impoundment
reservoir fish population is expected to increase provided that appropriate fish
species are introduced into the reservoir.
 The archaeological survey results indicated that the reservoir area has some
archaeological sites of stone culture, which will require a more detailed
investigation in the future.
 The project will have significant impact on both grazing land, cropland and
settlements in the community. However, all of the adverse impacts can be
mitigated or minimized through the proper implementation of acknowledged and

established measures. Stringent environmental management and monitoring

systems will also significantly minimize the impacts posed by the project. Such
measures must be implemented to the satisfaction of the affected stakeholders
and the environment in general.
It is, therefore, concluded that as far as the respective and relevant compensatory
mitigation measures are implemented properly and an effective Environmental
Management and Monitoring system is put in place to restore affected sites and to
ensure the environmental sustainability of the project, a more comprehensive
environmental impact assessment would not lead to the rejection of the project.
A.1 Recommendations
The following recommendations are presented:
 The issue of waste management both for liquid and solid waste generated within
the catchment is the major environmental challenge and threat to be dealt with.
This issue should be properly addressed and planning instruments should be put
in place to determine the management methods for both the reservoir water and
wastes generated within the catchment so that they are in compliance to a set
quality standards. This has to be addressed earnestly both during the design and
operation of the reservoir. All stakeholders involved with the project, including
the Addis Ababa Water and Sewerage Authority, the land use planners, the local
and regional administrations, and municipalities of both the Addis Ababa city
administration and the Oromia special zone should be aware of the significance of
the need for the reservoir water. They will have to coordinate their efforts to
contribute towards its sustainability and efficient operation, through which public
health and safety can be guaranteed. Awareness creation and coordination and
cooperation at all levels are required to this effect.
 The type of industries and development activities to be allowed for investment in

the catchment should be screened, based on the raw material used and waste
generated after processing. This requires additional detailed assessments and
studies to be undertaken. The studies should categorically identify industries that
are not permissible and those that can be allowed under strict supervision and
monitoring. Such information should be availed to the land use planners and
investment bureaus for references.
 The mitigation measures for adverse impacts and enhancement measures for the
beneficial impacts must be enforced. An Environmental Management and
Monitoring system should also be established to follow up and put into effect the
required environmental protection measures.

 All possible measures to mitigate future eutrophication problem of the reservoir

should be incorporated in the design and management of the reservoir.
 Provisions for the minimum dry season flow must ensure the sustainability of
riverine ecosystem and the availability of water for the consumption of human
and cattle; about 75 l/s release from Sibilu will be required.
 Land use planning and licensing of plots of land for investment within the Sibilu
Catchment must involve consent of the Oromia Special Zone and the Addis Ababa
City administration and AAWSA prior to issuing the permits. To put this in
practice, a forum for discussion and a committee (representing both
administrations) needs to be organized and established to follow up such
activities.
 Adequate buffer zone and protection area around the reservoir shore and at the
banks of the rivers and streams feeding into the reservoir must be provided.
 Watershed management activities should be implemented, giving particular

attention for the buffer zone management so as to reduce potential risk of
siltation and water quality degradation problems.
3.1.7 Socio-economic Impact Analysis
3.1.7.1 Introduction
This review of the socio-economic impact of the current proposals uses as a baseline the
study and design reports completed by TAHAL concerning the Sibilu dam and reservoir
and intended for immediate implementation in 2005. The data from the earlier study has
been supplemented and updated by observations of new developments in the project
area and reviews of any relevant documentation.
The previous study highlighted various direct and indirect socio-economic impacts of
implementing the proposal at local, regional and national levels. The social and economic
impacts consist mainly of potential effects the proposed development could have on the
local populations and communities. These have been enumerated in collaboration with
local authorities and the affected Project Affected Persons (PAPs).
However, as a result of delays in the implementation of the project, various forms of

development have taken place through the local, regional and national levels in and near
the project area, thereby calling for a revising of the anticipated impacts of the proposed
project. Visits to project sites and discussions with concerned authorities helped to fill
this informational gap.

3.1.7.2 Potential Socio-Economic Impacts
a) Positive Impacts
The implementation of the Sibilu dam project will have both positive and negative socio-
economic impacts. The positive impacts are most notably manifested in the alleviation of
Addis Ababa water supply shortages and improvement in the livelihoods of the project
area residents through the creation of job opportunities. Temporary employment
opportunities will be created by the project implementation during the construction
phase. During this phase, both skilled and un-skilled laborers will benefit from the newly
created job opportunities. The project will empower the community financially as it will
be a source of employment after the project implementation period as positions become
available in the operation and maintenance of the new facilities. A summarized list of the
positive impacts of the proposed project is provided below:
 Supply of potable water for Addis Ababa,
 Individual residents and communities in project area will benefit from the project
in the form of safe drinking water and access to irrigation,
 Job opportunity in the project affected area,
 Employed individuals will gain skills that may apply to other similar works (skill
transfer),
 More effective utilization of water resources to solve socio-economic problems in

the city of Addis Ababa,
 Residents of the project area will benefit from any project associated
compensation payments
b) Negative Impacts
There will also be negative socio-economic impacts. These potential negative impacts of
the project include loss of farmland and displacement at the reservoir site; socio-cultural
impacts; and resettlement issues. Each of these impacts along with the proposed
mitigation measures and potential impacts of recent developments are discussed in
detail in the following sections.
 Loss of Farmland and Displacement at Reservoir Site
There will be loss of land on a temporary and permanent basis for reservoirs,
transmission lines, access roads and treatment plants leading to displacement of project
site residents. Table 3.6 highlights the type of land that will be acquired for the two
options, discussed previously, as regards the Sibilu dam and reservoir.

Table 3.7 Estimated land loss in inundated areas.
Current Land Option B (ha)

Option A (ha)
Use (Estimated)
Crop Land 1,418 350
Pasture and
Hay Land 3,906 1,100
Other Land
(Habitation &
Tree
Cultivation) 280 50
Total 5,604
For Option A, a total of 5,604 hectares of land will be permanently lost by project area
residents as a result of the implementation of the project; this loss, coming in a place
where the people’s livelihood is land, will result in temporary dislocation and disruption
of livelihood.
The project will lead to land loss of peasant associations, farmers and business owners
along the main road and dam site. The land loss will affect various groups, which will
include farmers, small business owners, and new investors in the area referred to as
Project Affected Persons (PAPs) These losses are tabulated in Table 3.7 (overleaf).
Crop land, pasture and hay land, and forest land will be lost to give way for the dam
construction and related facilities. At the same time there will be destruction of
residential houses, business premises, institutional facilities (e.g. churches), public
facilities (e.g. schools) and water schemes leading to 100% displacement of the
identified PAPs at the proposed project site.
The project would require a total of 5,584 hectares of land for the dam construction,
access roads, transmission lines and treatment plant facilities. This is a loss of 20.3% of
the total land holdings of the 16 farm cooperatives affected. Out of the total land loss,
20% is crop land, 35.6% is pasture or hay land, 26.6% is vegetation and 15.5% is water
logged and gully.
The land loss varies between the cooperatives: one cooperative loses 100%, three
cooperatives lose nearly half of their holdings and others lose between 0.13 to 36% of
their total holdings due to project use. This is a huge loss in a place where the people’s
livelihood is land. It is for this reason, compensation of PAPs will be distributed and
largely depend on their existing earnings. To further minimize the impact the project will
impose upon local livelihoods, it is advised to help restore the livelihoods of the PAPs as
per the demands stated during the public consultation.

Table 3.8 Land Use Distribution and Estimated PAPs to be Resettled (Option A)
% Estimated Habitation
Total Area Area to Total Pasture
Name of Share Population to be Crop Woody water
of be Household and Hay
No. Peasant of Resettled Land Vegetation logged and
Association Flooded Head Land
Association Flooded Total (ha) (ha) eroded
(ha) (ha) (HH) HH (ha)
Area Population gully (ha)
1 Sakela 1035 1035 100 172 172 993 290 510 10 215
Gulale
2 2038 998 48.97 285 140 714
Deneba
3 Asare 1478 645 43.64 264 116 592
Sayo Kore 827 1478 650
4 1815 769 42.37 408 171 872
Robe
Warerso
5 1516 543 35.82 254 91 464
Kata
Warerso
6 1540 371 24.09 271 65 332
Malima
7 Arbi Akao 2164 21 0.97 277 2 10
8 Yeka Yaya 1311 130 9.92 265 27 138
Nono Guto-
9 2180 432 19.82 636 79 372
Dalota
Galiye Mana-
10 2278 275 12.07 417 50 255
abichu
11 Dire 1672 283 16.93 313 53 270 ***757 ***1342 ***594
Gelano
12 1484 76 5.12 273 14 71
Sabora
Elamu Roba
13 1425 4 0.28 225 0 0
& Gara
14 Lege Hetto 1587 2 0.13 252 0 0
Guto
15 1039 **30 2.89 383 11 56
Wesserbi
Nono Mana-
16 2882 **1 0.03 454 0 0
abichu
Total - 27444 5584 363.05 5149 991 5139 - - - -
**Land is required for the construction of access roads, transmission lines and treatment plant facilities.
***This includes land required for the Gerbi reservoir and for construction of access roads, transmission lines and the water treatment plant.

 Socio-Cultural Impacts
The proposed project is also likely to have appreciable socio-cultural effects on the
community members in the project area. Some of the anticipated socio-cultural effects
of the proposed project are positive. The project will empower the community financially
as it will be a source of employment during the project implementation period.
Construction activities in the area will also attract migrant workers, which will cause
growth of the local markets and improved business opportunities.
However, negative socio-cultural effects are also anticipated. During project

implementation, construction operations will cause interferences of educational and
church services due to the noise created and the dust from the excavation work. It is
recommended that works in this area be conducted carefully to minimize and avoid
negative impacts.
The demolishing of housing units will cause hardships among residents of the project
affected area, even though some of the land acquisitions may be temporary. In addition,
disturbance of societies and community associations such as edir, ekub, and credit
association are to be expected due to resident relocation. Migrant construction workers
may also be a source of local problems such as adultery, robbery, abuse of resources
and cultural distortion.
 Resettlement Issues
The previous socio-economic impact study indicated land requirements for dams,
reservoirs, the treatment plant, pumping stations, transmissions mains and right of way.
The study also noted estimates of the population that was expected to be relocated. It
showed that there are 991 affected households with a total population of 5,139 PAPs
that will lose land by the project’s acquisition of land. The PAPs livelihood depends on
farming and other agricultural activities in the project area. Land is the main asset and
source of livelihood of the PAPs since many of the household heads cultivate crops, raise
livestock, and sell their products as a primary source of income. Significant losses of
houses, crops, trees and hay are also indicated from supplementary sample survey.
Following government guidelines and the requirements of funding agencies such as the
World Bank, land acquisition and the handling of the PAPs shall be conducted in
accordance with the following guiding principles:
 As far as possible resettlement should be avoided or minimized. The proposed

project should, in effect, cause the least amount of displacement and/or
disruption possible;

 If resettlement must occur, it must be conducted in a manner that ensures that

PAPs benefit.
 Genuine consultation must take place with PAPs with the primary concern being
to take the rights and interests of the PAPs seriously.
 A fair and equitable compensation should be paid for land, crops, trees and
structures that are disturbed on the basis of existing market rates.
 Vulnerable social groups must be specifically catered for during the consultation
and planning processes, as well as in establishing grievance procedures.
 An independent monitoring and grievance procedure must be in place
3.1.7.2 Proposed Mitigation Measures
In the previous study the following mitigation measures were proposed:
 Appropriate compensation and resettlement of PAPs
o For land loss for quarry or other works conducted during construction,
monetary compensation or substitute land will be provided
o Monetary compensation will be imparted for crop land
o PAPs that must be resettled will be relocated in suitable locations and

provided with monetary compensation
 Construction workers will undergo a timely orientation about the local norms and
the expectations they must fulfill
 Give priority of newly created job opportunities to the PAPs
 Promote the local community to participate in project activities with a sense of

responsibility
 Establish industries which can create job opportunities for displaced people
 Introduce better breed livestock with full extension support to engage displaced
people
 Provide periodic follow up and advise for resettled people until they establish a
stable lifestyle
The costs of meeting compensation requirements were then estimated (2004) as ETB
155,075,144 (USD 13,684,862 at the then prevailing exchange rate), see Table 3.9.

Table 3.9 2004 Cost Estimates for Socio-Economic and Environmental

Mitigation
Unit Cost Total Cost
Type of Impact Unit Amount
(ETB) (ETB)
Loss of crop land Ha 1652 12,000 19,824,000
Loss of hay/ grazing land Ha 3898 1,899 7,402,302
Loss of houses m2 88,373 350 30,930,550
Loss for Eucalyptus trees No. 165524 13.15 826,593
Loss of Juniper trees No. 149080 18.5 853,261
Loss of fruits and vegetables No. No 3.5 8,337
Other shrubs (e.g. koba) No. 39604 3.5 138,614
Loss of churches No. 1 10,000 10,000
Loss of schools No. 3 583,333 1,749,999
Loss of water schemes No. 27 433,000 1,831,000
Loss of roads m2 210,000 450 53,100,000
Bridge No. 3 10,333.30 31,000
Community base offices No. 3 17,666.70 53,000
Buffer zone fencing m 76,000 15 1,140,000
Lump
Buffer zone management - - 150,000
sum
Water quality monitoring No. 6 / year 17,500 105,000
Lump
Watershed management - - 150,000
sum
Water waste disposal &
Ha 50 12,000 3,000,000
management
Spoil disposal m2 44,260 21 926,460
Lump
Dam hazard management - - 30,000
sum
Environmental supervisor salary Month 60 2,000 120,000
Compensation for unseen Lump
- - 1,500,000
impacts sum
Translocation of electric line m 1,200 100 120,000
Translocation of telephone line m 1,200 50 60,000
Subtotal - - - 124,060,116
Price contingency (10%) - - - 12406011.5
Physical contingency (15%) - - - 18609017.3
Total - - - 155,075,145
3.1.7.4 Impact of Recent Developments
Numerous development projects have been, are being undertaken or are planned to be
undertaken in Sululta Woreda, particularly in the five Kebeles in the Woreda that will be
directly affected, namely:
(1) Sakela
(2) Deneba
(3) Warerso Malima
(4) Keta

(5) Chancho Buba (Lega Lencha)
These projects will have a major effect on the estimated cost of mitigation for the
proposed dam construction. The main local development projects that are expected to
affect the proposed water supply project are listed below with their related costs of
translocation outside the impounded area:
(1) Two roads are being constructed through dam site,
a. One 8 km road construction project began this year at a cost of ETB

28 million;
b. Another 13 km road construction is almost complete with financial

government support of ETB 10 million.
(2) 32 factories with an area of 98.089 ha and total capital of ETB 2.92 billion
are in different stages of development. Below are two of the major
categories of industrial projects being developed:
a. Agro-industrial facilities: Mainly include facilities such as dairy, milk

processing, poultry, and pig farms. Dutch Dairy is among these
establishments costing USD 764.086 million (ETB 500 million loan
from Development Bank).
b. Manufacturing facilities: Includes two water bottling plants, a gypsum

factory, a cement bagging plant (MIDROC), and garage for 3000
cars.
(3) One large tannery is in operation at Sululta Town
a. It covers an area of 80,000 m2 and is operating with a total capital of

USD 27 million
b. It produces 5000 pieces per day and employs 25 Chinese and 420
local employees
There have also been other changes. The farming population, number of domestic and
small scale commercial buildings and residences, irrigation activities, etc. have increased
in the affected 5 Kebeles.
A summary of the estimated costs of removing this private and public infrastructure and
relocating to an area unaffected by the reservoir waters are shown in Table 3.10:

Table 3.10 Post-2004 developments & estimated translocation costs
Cost (USD Million)

No. Description
Option A Option B
1 Roads and ancillary structures 6.30 2.80
2 Tannery 27.00
3 Other manufacturing and large-scale
commercial units 38.00
4 Residential, small-scale agricultural
and commercial 3.00 2.10
Total 74.30 4.90
3.1.7.5 Economic impacts and Evaluation
The construction of Sibilu dam would have significant social and economic impacts in
terms of economic benefits arising from the provision of water to Addis Ababa and the
sale of this water to the consumers. The results of the previous economic cost/benefit
analysis indicated the feasibility of the Sibilu option to be marginal:
 Net Present Value (NPV) of USD 457.0 million for the 2-phase option and USD
519.7 million for the single-option (@5%)
 Unit Marginal cost of water USD 0.330/m3 (ETB 2.86) for the two phase option
and USD/m3 0.30 (ETB 2.57) for the single phase option
 Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 6%
 Benefit/Cost (B/C) Ratio of 1.062
Additional (uncosted) economic benefits reported in the previous proposals included:
 Alleviation of the water shortage problems of Addis Ababa - still valid;

 Improvement of the financial situation of AAWSA
 Health benefits from safe water supply which contribute to labour productivity
of the population
 Potential reduction in UFW currently at 40%
The previous comprehensive economic analysis on Sibilu date back to 2005 (TAHAL).
The analysis was revised taking note of developments since then which called for
adjustments in the major parameters. The major adjustments were in respect to:
 Project investment costs- the earlier estimates were adjusted and raised by the
international average inflation rate for the last 8 years. The Entoto tunnel is, as
far as can be ascertained from AAWSA-PO, no longer to be included under AAWS
IIIA. The cost was thus removed from our current investment estimates. Likewise
transmission and distribution network costs have been removed since the current
study is to deal only with sources. Finally, as the decision to proceed with the
construction of Gerbi is already under implementation, it is now assumed that

work on Sibilu will follow-on in a single-stage process, depending on the

technical, environmental and socio-economic assessments of the proposal.
 Based on CSA data, inflation in the country averaged 20.6% p.a. between 2006
and 2013. However, the inflation to be applied to international construction is
significantly lower than internal Ethiopian inflation. The rate normally in use is
between 1.5 - 2% per annum. In fact in recent years construction costs on
international projects have reduced slightly. We have chosen to use the average
rate of 1.75% per annum for our calculations. Physical investments costs, running
costs and costs of mitigation were accordingly raised by this rate. New costs of
mitigation to arise from new construction and other developments in the
catchment were added to this.
 Costs for socio-environmental mitigation measures were calculated using historic

local inflation rates and converted to USD at current exchange rates.
 Energy costs were based on current charges of USD 0.03/kWh.
 Revenue and benefits – Revenues were derived by applying projections of tariff

rates planned by AWSSA in strategic plan for the coming years to projected
volume of surface water production. Since the design life of the dam would be 50
years, the water sales over the 50 year period were used in assessing the
economic value. NRW reductions projected by AAWSA were factored into the
future water sales estimates.
 A discount rate of 10% was applied for calculating Net Present Values (NPV) of
future costs and benefits.
 Economic costs and benefits were calculated for a 50-year design period.
Mechanical and electrical plant are signaled for replacement after 15 years (pump
stations) and 25 years (water treatment plants).
 Future tariffs were developed using AAWSA’s projected tariff structures.
Details of the two analyses are reproduced in Appendix D; Capital investment costs are
summarized in Table 3.11.

Table 3.11 Capital Investment Costs (USD x 106))
No. Investment Option A Option B
1.0 Sibilu Dam

1.1 Dam structure 42.422 16.969
1.2 Intake 3.145 1.573
1.3 Pumping Station building and 5.158 2.579
1.4 Pumping - mechanical equipment 7.336 3.668
1.5 Pumping - electrical equipment 8.467 4.234
1.6 Bulk electrical supply 5.218 2.609
Subtotal 71.745 31.631
2.0 Transmission main
2.1 Pipeline 35.869 21.521
2.2 Access roads 0.719 0.719
Subtotal 36.588 22.240
3.0 Wosserbi Water Treatment Plant
3.1 Civil and building works 31.594 15.797
3.2 Mechanical equipment 57.444 28.722
3.3 Electrical equipment 25.850 12.925
3.4 General provisions 21.542 10.771
3.5 Bulk electrical Supply 1.729 1.383
Subtotal 138.159 69.598
TOTAL CONSTRUCTION COSTS 246.493 123.469
The economic analyses are summarised in Table 3.12.
Table 3.12 Summary of economic analyses
Economic criteria/measure Option A Option B

Internal Rate of Return 15.20 0.15
Net Present Value (USD x 10 ) 6
212.50 66.82
Benefit/Cost (B/C) ratio 1.62 2.23
Payback period (years) 10.0 11.0
Net unit cost of water sold (USD/m3) 0.12 0.14
3.1.7.6 Conclusions
Apart from the IRR for Option B, both options are economically positive and would
provide substantial improvements in Addis Ababa’s surface water resources in a
relatively short period. The detailed design of Option A is substantially complete,
although some additional ground investigations have been recommended in our earlier
reporting (Review Report).

Option A has major social and economic implications as it would require translocation of
a substantial of economic facilities away from the impoundment. However, even
including the estimated cost of such upheavals the proposal remains economically
beneficial and would delay the search for alternative water sources by 7 years.
Option B is less attractive but can provide appreciable additional water, 142,500 m3/d
(almost as much as Legegadi WTP at present), in a short period. It has no major
negative social, environmental or economic impacts.
Details regarding population resettlement and compensation will need to be reconsidered

and adjusted due to changes in the demography of the area. Population and settlement
have increased since the last thorough investigation. A RAP process needs to be
prepared in line with government regulations and guidelines. A socioeconomic census
and land asset inventory of the area must be conducted for Identification of Project
Affected Persons (PAPs). Asset inventories will be used to determine individual
entitlements, while the census information is required to characterize the affected
population and help identify vulnerable groups and others requiring special assistance.
Also, both the inventories and census will be important databases for resettlement
planning, implementation and monitoring
3.1.8 Software for surface water
As part of the present study, the Consultant is requiredto recommend a suitable software
package for simulating water resources and water quality in this region. We recommend
the “BASINS” package. It is a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) based software,
freely available from the United States Environmental Protection Authority (US EPA),.
While easy to implement in the US, for which the appropriate data is available on-line,
some work would have to be done to prepare and integrate the required data sets, but
once this is done the package has a number of different hydrological and water quality
simulation options. Its hydrological modelling is based on the Hydrologic System
Programing Fortran (HSPF) model, which is a well-used and respected hydrological
model applied in different part of the world.
3.1.8.1 Description of BASIN
Better Assessment Science Integrating point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS) is a system
developed by the US EPA to meet the needs of local, state, and federal US agencies. It
integrates a geographic information system (GIS), national watershed and
meteorological data, and state-of-the-art environmental assessment and modelling tools
into one package. Originally released in September 1996, BASINS addresses three
objectives: (1) to facilitate examination of environmental information, (2) to provide an

integrated watershed and modelling framework, and (3) to support analysis of point and
nonpoint source management alternatives.
BASINS supports the development of total maximum daily loads (TMDLs), which are the
main regulatory quantities used in the USA. Calculating these require a watershed-based
approach that integrates both point and nonpoint sources. BASINS can simulate a
variety of pollutants at multiple scales, using a range of modeling tools from the simple
to the sophisticated.
BASINS can be used to suggest the cause(s) of contaminated surface waters from point
and nonpoint-source pollution, wet weather combined sewer overflows (CSO), storm
water management issues, and drinking water source protection. BASINS is also used in
urban/rural landuse evaluations, animal feeding operations, and habitat management
studies. It is also used in an educational setting, providing schools and educational
institutions with a quick, free resource of GIS software and surface water data for the
United States.
The heart of BASINS is its large suite of interrelated components for watershed and
water quality analysis. These components are grouped into several categories:
1. Nationally derived environmental and GIS databases for the US
2. Assessment tools (TARGET, ASSESS, and DATA MINING) for evaluating water
quality and point source loadings at a large or small scales;
3. Utilities including local data import and management of local water quality
observation data
4. Two watershed delineation tools
5. Utilities for classifying, based on elevation (DEM), landuse, soils, and water quality
data
6. BASINS has an in-stream water quality model (QUAL2E)
7. BASINS has a simplified GIS based nonpoint source annual loading model (PLOAD)
8. Two catchment models that include pollution loading and transport (HSPF and
SWAT)
9. A postprocessor (GenScn) for model data and scenario generator to visualize,

analyze, and compare results from HSPF and SWAT; and
10. Many mapping, graphing, and reporting formats to assist in using BASINS outputs
in reports.

BASINS' databases and assessment tools are directly integrated within an ArcView GIS
environment. The simulation models run in a Windows environment, using data input
files generated in ArcView (Figure 9).
3.1.8.2 Data Requirements and System Outputs:
Inputs: DEM (shape files and grid datasets), landuse/ landcover data, soil type, weather
data (location of weather stations and weather data), environmental background data,
environmental monitoring data (water quality monitoring stations and observation data),
and point sources/loadings data.
Outputs: Maps, graphs, and tables summarizing point and nonpoint pollution in
catchment (flow, sediment load, nitrogen, phosphorus, bacteria, and pesticides.
HSPF: HSPF produces a time history of the runoff flow rate, sediment load, and nutrient
and pesticide concentrations, along with a time history of water quantity and quality at
any point in a catchment. Simulation results can be processed through a frequency and
duration analysis routine that produces output compatible with conventional toxicological
measures (e.g., 96-hour LC50).
SWAT: SWAT produces daily runoff flow rate, pollutant values at both catchment and
sub-catchment levels.
QUAL2E: QUAL2E produces a table contains flows, velocities, travel time, depths, and
cross-sectional areas along each reach and water quality constituent concentrations
along a reach.
We have viewed this software requirement as a process distinct from the database being
developed under Task 7. However, both systems can be readily integrated and interfaced
as both are GIS-based programs.

Figure 3.25 BASINS screen shot
Platform, Operating system, Hardware and software requirements:

Platform: PC
Operating System: Windows
BASINS can be installed and operated on a standalone, internet connected Windows
compatible 32 bit personal computers equipped with the software, random access
memory (RAM), virtual memory, and hard disk.
Software requirements: Microsoft Internet Explorer 5.01 or later.
GIS engine: ArcView 3.1, 3.2, or 3.3 (required); with the Spatial Analyst extension
(preferred). BASINS 4.0 contains the installation program for an open source GIS
program (MapWindow).
Homepage: http://www.epa.gov/OST/BASINS/
Source: Standards and Health Protection Division (4305T)
Office of Science and Technology, Office of Water, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20460
Cost & License: Free, no license required.
Availability: can be downloaded from the BASINS webpage.
Training: Lectures, data sets and exercises are available and workshops for BASINS
can be arranged. See http://www.epa.gov/waterscience/basins/training.htm.

3.2 Ground water
3.2.1 Geology & Geomorphology
3.2.1.1 Physiography of the Addis Ababa Area
Addis Ababa is located on the edge of the western escarpment of the Ethiopian Rift
Valley System and on the northern corner of Awash River drainage basin. The rift
escarpment between Adama and Addis Ababa cities is not clearly defined. Numerous
northeast trending step faults that run in echelon between Addis Ababa and Adama form
the western escarpment of the region.
Isolated acidic volcanic hills of Yerer on the southeast, Furi on the southwest, and
Wechech on the west and isolated cinder cones on the south surround the city. The East-
west mountain chain of Entoto, which runs along the east-west trending Debre Brhan-
Ambo fault line, borders the city on the north. Areas north, west and east of Addis Ababa
are within the Western Plateau which is part of the Northwestern Highlands of Ethiopia.
The plateau is an undulated plain with isolated volcanic hills and plugs. It is cut by deep
the gorges of the Abay and Awash rivers and their tributaries. The plateau is covered
with volcanic rocks and Mesozoic sediments are exposed in the deep gorges of Abay and
its tributaries.
3.2.1.2 Lithology & Stratification
The Mesozoic sediments are mainly exposed in the deep gorges of the river Abay and its
tributaries. Of the Mesozoic deposits only the upper sand stone outcrops on the plateau
around Inchine north of Holota town. The volcanic rocks are unconformablly overlying
the Mesozoic deposits.
The Blue Nile Basalt, which is the oldest of the volcanic rocks in the region, outcrops in
the Abay river gorge. It is a columnar cliff forming basalt.
The Ashangi Basalt outcrops over wide areas on the plateau along the Abay river gorges.
It mainly consists of basalt with pyroclastic intercalations and rare rhyolite. It is highly
weathered.
Tarmaber Basalt outcrops on the northern and northeastern plateaus around Addis
Ababa and along the mountain range that divides Abay and Awash river basins. Drilling
samples from deep wells drillled in the region show that this rock is fractured and at
places it could be scoriaceous. It is believed to be the main aquifer forming rock of the
region and covers the recharge zone of Addis Ababa and the surrounding areas.
Addis Ababa basalt outcrops along the river valleys of the city. It consists of massive
basalt flows. At places it is fractured, scoriaceous and jointed. It is the main source of
crushed aggregate for the construction industry of the city.

Pliocene pyroclastic rocks cover the undulating plains of Addis Ababa and the
surrounding areas. They are known as Addis Ababa Ignimbrite and Nazret Series and
they are almost of the same geological age. The latter is associated with rift formation
and associated eruptions. The pyroclastic rocks mainly consist of welded tuff, with varied
degree of welding, and volcanic ashes. Pumice, rhyolite flows and intercalation of basalt
beds are found enterbedded in the pyroclastic rocks. It is one on the main source of
construction material in the city.
Akaki Basalt is a Quaternary basalt and consists of basalt flows, scoria and spatter of
cinder cones. At places the basalt flow is vesicular and amygdaloidal or the vesicles could
be open. The cinder cones form isolated scoria hills. Akaki basalt is limited to the
southern part of the city around Akaki and Dukem.
Trachyte volcanic centers of Wechecha, Furi, Yerer. etc. are forming isolated volcanic
centers on the western and southern part of the city. These volcanic centers are part of
the Chilalo Formation of Early Pliocene. They are mainly composed of trachyte rocks.
3.2.1.3 Tectonics
There are several normal fault lines that trend in three main directions, namely:
 Northeast trending fault lines forming the step faults of the western escarpment
of the main rift system. The density of spacing of these fault lines is increasing
towards the rift valley on the south.
 The east-west trending fault line is more common on the northern part of Addis
Ababa and forms the southern edge of Entoto mountain range and runs as far as
Ambo.
 NNW trending fault lines could be associated with the Afar rift system and most of
the cinder cones of Akaki and Bisholftu are located along these fault lines.
3.2.2 Hydrogeological characteristics of the lithologic units
Mesozoic sedimentary rocks are limited to the deep gorges of the Abay river and its
tributary. Although the Upper Sandstone forms a good aquifer, it is limited in the gorges
and outcrops on the plateau and to a small area around Inchine. None of the deep wells
drilled around Addis Ababa has struck the Upper Sandstone. Experiences around Dire
Dawa town show that the upper sandstone has significant potential for groundwater
source development.
The Ashangi Basalt is highly weathered and the fracture and joint openings are filled with
clay material, formed from alteration or pedogenesis of the basalt rock. It has low
transmissivity and poor prospect as aquifer. Boreholes drilled in this rock usually yield
some 3 l/s or less.

Tarmaber basalt is permeable along its fractures and jointing openings. The fractured
sections and intercalated scoriaceous and vesicular beds form good water bearing zones.
Water wells drilled around Addis Ababa and test wells drilled for Ada’a and Bech Plains
Groundwater Irrigation Project study have revealed that this rock unit is the main water
bearing zone in the region. It also forms a zone of groundwater recharge in areas where
it outcrops.
Addis Ababa Basalt and the ignimbrite beds are not highly fractured and they have
limited groundwater prospects depending on local intensity of fracturing and jointing.
Water wells drilled in Addis Ababa Basalt and in the ignimbrite beds usually yield less
than 5/s.
Trachyte rock volcanic centers of Wechecha, Furi, Yerer, and the acidic lava flows around
Addis Ababa have low primary and secondary openings and they are poor aquifers in
general.
The scoriaceous, vesicular and fractured basalts of Akaki Basalt have high permeability
and transmissivity. They are good aquifers and form good groundwater recharge zones.
Transmissivity values of wells drilled in this basalt in Akaki well field exceeds 2000 m2/d.
3.2.3 Previous ground water investigations around Addis Ababa
Several geological, hydrogeological and water quality studies have been carried out
around Addis Ababa. The major groundwater studies that have been undertaken to date,
apart from current studies which are incomplete at this time, specifically for water supply
sources for Addis Ababa city and the surroundings include the following:
3.2.3.1 AESL (1984)
AESL carried out Addis Ababa Water Resources Reconnaissance Study and produced the
final report in 1984. This report recommended further study of the potential groundwater
sources of the Addis Ababa area. Different groundwater investigations which mainly
involved inventories (compiled in 1955, 1970 and 1983) of the then existing wells in and
near the city, were summarized in this report.
3.2.3.2 SEURECA (1991)
Following the recommendation of the AESL report, Seureca undertook a Feasibility and
Preliminary Design study of Addis Ababa Water Supply Project Stage III from 1989 to
1991 and produced a final report in April 1991. The study identified three areas
designated as area A in southwest (Sebeta), area B in Southeast (Koye) and area C in
South (Aba Samual) of Addis Ababa as potential areas for groundwater source
development.

A total of 20 test wells were drilled and tested in the selected three areas. The depths of
the test wells varied from 72 to 160 m and they were test pumped. The potential yield of
the test wells varied from 1 to 45 l/s and of these the potential yield of 65% of the test
wells was 5 l/s and below. It recommended to drill 146 production wells in the three
identified well fields to produce an estimated 65,000 m3/d.
3.2.3.3 TAHAL/SHAWEL (1992)
TAHAL/SHAWEL carried out studies and 5 test well drillings near Akaki town. Three of
the test wells were drilled in southern part of area B (identified by Seureca) and 2 of
them were drilled south of area B. This area was identified by AWWSA hydrogeologists
and named area D. The two wells drilled in area D yielded in the order of 50 l/s.
The volume of groundwater calculated in area B and area D were 10,000 and 30,000
m3/d respectively.
3.2.3.4 AESL (1993)
A Review of the Feasibility Study and Preliminary Design Report, Water Supply Project
Stage III was carried out by AESL and their report was produced in 1993. It was
concluded that areas A, B and C (identified by Suereca, 1993) did not warrant further
groundwater development in the near future. It also recommended mapping, test wells
drilling and groundwater modelling in area D to drill production wells that could yield
125,000 m3/d. The consultant estimated a yield of up to 250,000 m3/d in area D and the
surrounding areas, and also identified Sululta (north of Addis Ababa) as an area with
high groundwater potential.
3.2.3.5 BCEOM – SEURECA (2000)
Based on the recommendation of AESL 1993 report, BCEOM-SEURECA SPACE joint

venture, in association with Tropics Consulting Eng. Plc., conducted a modelling exercise
of Akaki Well Field and presented their report in 2000. AESL had recommended in its
1993 report that productive wells should be drilled in area D, which is now known as old
Akaki Well Field, after hydrogeological mapping and modelling were carried out.
However, 25 production wells and 4 monitoring wells were already drilled (1995-1997)
before the mapping and the modelling work started. The consultants concluded from the
modelling result that the well field should only yield 30,000 m3/d, which is much less
than the estimated 250,000 m3/d by AESL 7 years earlier.
This modelling was carried out on the assumptions that the Akaki river basin coincides
with the groundwater basin of the Akaki well field and that the groundwater recharge of
the well field was limited to within the Akaki river surface water basin. It did not explain
its basis for this assumption. The Akaki well field groundwater model simulation is

governed by the design of the existing 25 production wells. The wells are drilled from
116 to 190 m depths, which is shallow when the depth of the regional aquifer is
considered. Design and construction of the 25 wells limited the drawdown of the water
level in the wells to about 18 m, and therefore the consultants based their simulation
result for 18 m permissible drawdown. This has limited the usefulness of the modelling.
Consequently, concluded the capacity of the well field to be 30,000 m 3/day for 20 years
exploitation and this estimate was much lower than 250,000 m 3/d estimate made by
AESL in 1993 report.
3.2.3.6 WWDSE (2008)
An evaluation of the water sources of Ada’a and Becho Plains Groundwater Basin for
Irrigation Development Project was carried out by Water Works Design and Supervision
Enterprise (WWDSE). The study started in 2006 and the final report, in three volumes,
was produced in 2008. The Final Feasibility report of the project was produced in 2009.
This study covered 7,000 km2 in part of the southern Abay Basin and 10,000 km2 in the
Upper Awash basin. Addis Ababa City and the well fields in its surroundings are all
located within this study area.
The study started with a conceptual model which assumed that:
i) the regional groundwater is flowing from the southern part of Abay Basin
southwards into the Upper Awash basin, and
ii) the main groundwater source in Ada’a and Becho plain and surroundings of Addis
Ababa is in a deep aquifer that is mainly recharged from outside of Awash Basin.
This concept is totally different from what was assumed in previous studies, such as
AESL, TAHAL, BCEOM and Seureca, that had attempted groundwater evaluation and
modelling of Addis Ababa area. The previous studies were carried out on the assumption
that the groundwater basin of Addis Ababa area coincides with the surface water basin of
Akaki river sub basin, which is in the Upper Awash basin, and that the groundwater
recharge of the surrounding areas of Addis Ababa takes place within Akaki sub basin.
A total of 1037 water point inventories were compiled, 925 of these were boreholes. The
project has carried out geophysical surveys and drilled 10 mapping wells at selected
sites and distributed all over the study area to generate hydrogeological and geological
data for the study. Beside the scoria and scoriaceous basalt aquifers of Akaki area, the
study revealed a major aquifer, which is vesicular and partly scoriaceous Middle-Miocene
basalt, generally confined under the younger acidic volcanic rocks. The study estimated
the total average recharge of Ada’a and Becho Plains basins to be some 965 Mm3/year or
2.6 Mm3/day.

This study has revolutionized the groundwater concept of the region. Several studies and
groundwater source development projects carried out since 2008 are based on the
outcomes of this study and their outputs are more successful than previous attempts of
groundwater source developments. One of these is the extensive groundwater source
development project of Addis Ababa and the surrounding areas for the city water supply
source.
3.2.3.7 WWDSE (2009-2010)

Addis Ababa Water Supply Authority (AAWSA) entered an agreement with Water Works
Design and Supervision Enterprise (WWDSE) to undertake detailed groundwater
investigations studies around Addis Ababa and to supervise the drilling of production
wells in the identified sites. The study covered five prospective areas.
The study was completed and produced report in five volumes in 2010. The contract
included identifying well fields and supervising drillings of productive wells in the
identified sites. The sites are:
o Legedadi-Legetafo-Ayat (LLA),
o South Ayat-North Fanta Well field (SANFWF),
o South west and west of Akaki well field (SWAWF),
o Melka Kunture (MK), and
o Sebeta –Tefki (ST) areas
The prospective sites locations are given in Table 3.13 and Figures 3.26 and 3.27.
Detailed geological study and mapping, hydrogeological and geophysical (Magnetic
Telluric (MT), Vertical Electrical soundings (VES) and Magnetic Profiling) studies, test and
production wells drilling and evaluation of the resources were carried out. Field data, well
completion reports, pumping test data, etc. are compiled and several volumes of reports
have been issued in 2009-2011. The study and supervision works are ongoing and these
are described in more details in the following section.
Table 3.13 Location, elevation and geomorphology of prospective sites

(Adapted from WWDSE, 2009)
Elev,
Area, Latitude Longitude
No. Site (m Geomorphology
(km2) (Approx.) (Approx.)
AMSL)
1 (LLA) 412 80 58’ 57.4 – 380 51’ 45.24” – 2640 - Flat to undulating
90 11’ 07.6” N 390 01’ 39.01” E 2320 plain, dissected by
gorges of Legetafo
and Legedadi streams
2 (SANFWF) 131 80 53’ 12.43” - 380 46’ 35.40” – 2320 - Undulating plain
8058’ 16.7” N 380 51’ 41.41” E 2120 dissected by Akaki
river gorge

Elev,
Area, Latitude Longitude
No. Site (m Geomorphology
(km2) (Approx.) (Approx.)
AMSL)
3 SWAWF 101 80 47’ 25.50” - 380 44’ 00” – 2110 - Flat plain graben with
80 53’ 6.23” N 380 49’ 18.79” E 2050 scoria and vesicular
basalt hills, bounded
by mountains in NW
and SE directions
MK 285 80 39’ 46.44” - 380 31’ 37.04” – 2110 - Flat and undulating
4 8047’ 3.34” N 380 40’ 20.82” E 2060 plain of Awash river
valley
5 ST 137 80 50’ 39.32” - 380 27’ 16.68” – 2250 - Undulating to flat
80 59’ 4.85” N 380 33’ 26.32” E 2060 plain (partly Becho
plain)

Figure 3.26 Areas covered by the Ada’a and Becho Plain Groundwater Irrigation Project (WWDSE, 2008)
400000 450000 500000 550000 600000

Tarm abe r
Ú
Ê
Geb re G ura ch a Deg em Lemi An ch ekorer God o Bere t
Ú
Ê Ali D oro ÊÚ Fich e Ú
Ê Ú
Ê Ú
Ê
Biriti Ú
Ê Den eb a
Ú
Ê
Ú
Ê Ú
Ê
Deb re L iban os Dinb aro
Deb re T sig eÊÚ W eb eri Deb re Birhan Ú
Ê
Ú
Ê
Je mo Le fo Ú
Ê Me nd ida Ú
Ê
Ú
Ê Ú
Ê
Ka ch isi Min are Dale ti
Ú
Ê Ú
Ê
Ú
Ê
Mu ke Turi
Ú
Ê Cha cha
Ke mbo lch aMe koda Ú
Ê
1050000
1050000
Ú
Ê Ú
Ê
Mu ge r Dub er
Ú
Ê Deb ra Ú
Ê
Ú
Ê Asag irt
W ele nkombi Gorfo
Sh iku te Ke tke t Ú
Ê Mu lo Ú
Ê Ú
Ê
Ú
Ê Ú
Ê Ú
Ê
Cho bi
Ú
Ê
Goja
Gola ShÊÚino In ch ini
Ú
Ê Ú
Ê
Cha ncho
Ú
Ê
Abbay Plateau
W en oda
Sh eno
Ú
Ê
Bicho Ú
Ê Ú
Ê
Ú
Ê Ko re mas
Ale ltu Ú
Ê Sh ola G ebe ya
Ú
Ê
Ú
Ê
Se nda fa
Ú
Ê
Holo ta N
1000000
1000000
Ú
Ê
Ginchi Ad is Alem
Ú
Ê Ad dis Ab eba
Ú
Ê Ú
Ê
Amb o Che fe Do nsa
Ú
Ê Ú
Ê
Ale m Gen a
Se beta ÊÚ
Ú
Ê
Akaki Beseka God ino
Tefki Ú
Ê Ú
Ê
Ú
Ê Bo neya
Deb re G ene t Ú
Ê Duke m
Ú
Ê Ú
Ê Eje re
Ú
Ê
Becho Plain Deb re Z eyt
Ú
Ê 80 0 0 0 80 0 0 16 0 0 0 Me te r s
Me lka Kunture
Ú
Ê
Tulu Bolo
Dilela Ú
Ê
Ú
Ê Ba ntu ADAA PLAIN Mo jo LOC ATION MAP OF ADAA-BEC HO PL AIN S
950000
950000
W eliso
Upper Awash
Ú
Ê Leme n
Ú
Ê
Ad ulala
Ú
Ê
Ú
Ê Ú
Ê
Ko ka
Ú
Ê
Ko nda ltiti
Ú
Ê Ombo le
Ú
Ê
Bu -i
Ú
Ê
400000 450000 500000 550000 600000

Figure 3.27 Hydrological map of Ada’a Becho Plains and recharge areas
38°0'E 400000 38°15'E 450000

38°30'E 38°45'E 500000
39°0'E 39°15'E 550000
39°30'E 39°45'E 600000 40°0'E 40°15'E 650000
1100000
1100000
> S9
Hose
Sela Dingay
× Legend
× Ejere Sasit
Tulu Miki × I. Aquifers Properties
× × Inewari
× A.Extensive aquifers with primary porosity
Tarmaber Alluvium of Abay plateau (Qal) and Debre Zeit area
×
allluvium and lascustrine (Qal+Qld) aquifer of modertae
Gebre Guracha S11 Lemi Anchekorer Godo Beret
× > × to high productivity
Ka
S10 Degem S12 × × ×
> > ×
Biriti Ali Doro× Fiche Deneba B.Fractured and Scoraceous basalt Aquifers
×
chi
× 9°45'N
9°45'N B1.Upper Basalt Aquifer
Debre Libanos
S13 Dinbaro Quaternary and Tertiary basalts, Bishoftu saptter cones
se-
> × ×
Debre Tsige Weberi AMW11 Debre Birhan and lava flows (QbiB), Weliso-Ambo basalt (QWab), Akaki
× ×
S14 × Mendida Basalts and Scoria (NakB) and Addis Ababa basalts (NadB)
Ad
Jemo Lefo > A
!
× ×
Daleti S15
moderate to high sub-regional aquifers
aa
Kachisi T6 Minare × >
× >
× B2.Lower basalt Aquifer
Lower Tertiary Volcanic aquifer : Tarmaber scoraceous
Pla
Muke Turi
× Chacha basalt (PntbB) and Amba Aiba basalt (PaaB) high productive
1050000
1050000
S16
× aquifer. Outcrops in Abay plateau and underlain by acidic
in
Kembolcha Mekoda >
9°30'N × × volcanic rocks in upper Awash 9°30'N
sec
T7 Muger
> S1 Duber S17 C.Regional and local Volcanic aquitards
> × ×>
S2A S2 Debra ×
tion
>
AMW1 Welenkombi Asagirt C1. Extensive and regional upper aquiclude
A
! Gorfo × Regional to Sub-regional aquiclude of Nazaret groups
Shikute Ketket × Mulo × S18
× > × × >
(NnuRI) welded ingnimbrites, Chefe donsa pyroclastics
line
T9
Chobi AMW7 (NQcdPc) and Addis Ababa Ignimbrites (Nadl), have low
Sheno
× Gola
Shino
× Inchini Chancho
A
! × groundwater potent along fractrues and weathered zone.
S3×
S19
× AMW6S22 × > Wenoda AMW23 Separates the upper and lower basaltic aquifers
Goja > S4
A
!
Se
> > S23 ×
Bicho × >
A
! C2. Extensive and regional upper aquiclude
gn
9°15'N × T8 9°15'N
>
S21 Koremas Regional to Sub-regional lower aquiclude of Asahngi
o
>
×
Aleltu
G
Shola Gebeya× Basalt (PasB), Blue Nile Columnar Basalts (PbnB) and
×
eb
T3
> S5A S5
AMW13 AMW10 Alaji Ryholites (PalRy) acts as regonal aquiclude between the
ey
Sendafa
T4
>
>
> A
!S20 × A
! lower basalt aquifer and Mesozoic sedimentary formations
a
T5
>
_L
>
S6 AMW2 S33 C3. Localized aquiclude
AMW8>
eg
A!
Holota A
S32
!> Tertiary and Quaternary Rhyolitic and trachytic volcanic
1000000
1000000
ed
× S34
ridges and volcanic centers (QbgPr+QZqTy+NebRy +NCvTy)
ad
VESB-32
VESB-29
Adis Alem>
VESB-31 >
Addis Abeba
> of Bede gebaba, Ziquala, Wechecha, Furi, Yerer,etc. localized
> ×
is
Ginchi T14 T1 × S7A × AMW15 aquicludes
e
>
9°0'N Ambo > AMW26 > 9°0'N
× VESB-25 > T12
T13
T2
A
! A
! Chefe Donsa
×
D.Mesozoic Sedimentary aquifers
>
> VESB-26 >
>
S8 Out crops in the gorges, there may be a possibility to
>
T11 Alem Gena pentrate this formation at a great depth more than 450
> × S31
Sebeta >
VESB-19 × meters At Abay Plateau
>
BECHO PLAIN AMW14 AMW9
Godino
>
VESB-20
VESB-21 T15
> >
VESB-22 A
!> VESB-23 >
VESB-24 A
!×
>
S29 ×
> Akaki Beseka
T16
Tefki× S30
AMW20 Boneya S64
>
> T17
× > II. Miscellaneous
A
!
Debre Genet AMW3VESB-16>
T18 >
VESB-17
S42 AMW12B > S65
S35 >
S36
Ejere Mapping Wells Drilled by
VESB-14 A
×!
>
VESB-12VESB-13
>
> >
> >
VESB-15 VESB-18
> > ×
S40
> >
> S41 S43 >
S67
S66 A
! A
! × A
!
The Project
8°45'N T19
> AMW12A S28S38 >> S39
> AMW22B> Ada'a - Becho Plains Groundwater 8°45'N
×
VESB-10
> T20
>> AMW4 >
S27 S25 > S37
>
> S63
A
! > VES Points Basin and Recharge Area
> VESB-11 S69
>
VESB-6
VESB-7 > VESB-8 VESB-9
×
T21 S60>
S61A
! >
S59
>
> >
S83 × Towns Villages Abbay Plateau
VESB-6aVESB-1
>
Tulu Bolo×
>>
>
>
VESB-28
A
! > >
AMW5S56 >
S57
S62
>
S68
Upper Awash
AMW18 > > S84 A
! Groundwater Divides
³
S53
Dilela
×
T22 S58
> >
>
>
S49 S47 AMW21 A
! S71
>
Groundwater
950000
950000
VESB-4 S7 S55 >
S52 >
VESB-2 > > >
Flow Directions Plain Area
> ×>
Bantu VESB-3
>
Lemen >
VESB-5
>
S54 >
>
S46
>
S81 Mojo
×
A
!
× T23
>
S48 S80> S82 Hydrogeological
> S45 >
> S51 > > S72
S77 > S78 X-Section
Weliso S44 > >
S79
> S74
× >× S50 >
Adulala > AMW25 A
! Faults/Lineaments
S94
8°30'N
>
S85
S89
>
>
S91
ADA'A PLAIN Rivers SCALE 1:800,000
8°30'N
S87 > S92 7 3.5 0 7 Kilometers
> S88 > All-weather roads (asphalt)
> S90 S93
Koka×
> >
S86
Kondaltiti >
×
Ombole S75 > S76
×> FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA
Bu-i MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES
×
Project : Evaluation of The Groundwater Potential
of Ada'a-Becho Plains
8°15'N 8°15'N
Title : HYDROGEOLOGICAL MAP OF ADA'A BECHO
PLAINS AND THEIR RECHARGE AREAS
900000
900000
WATER WORKS DESIGN AND SUPERVISION ENTERPRSE
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia P.O.BOX 2560 Fig.
Tel : 011-6614501,011-6610093
Fax : 011-6615371,011-6610898
email:w.w.d.s.e@ethionet.et March, 2008
38°0'E 400000 38°15'E 38°30'E
450000 38°45'E 39°0'E
500000 39°15'E 39°30'E
550000 39°45'E 600000 40°0'E 40°15'E 650000

Figure 3.28 Location of prospective groundwater sites and groundwater flowpaths (from WWDSE, 2009)
44000 0 45000 0 46000 0 47000 0 48000 0 49000 0 50000 0 51000 0 52000 0 53000 0
1020000
1020000
Korem as
Ú
Ê
Aleltu
Ú
Ê
AMW13
·
# Senda fa ·
#
Dire R e servoir Ú
Ê
1010000
1010000
AMW2 ·
# Intoto R idge AMW8 A) LEGEDADI - LEGETAFO - AYAT
·
2
# & SURROUNDING AREAS
5
Gefe rsa rese rvoir-2
Holota
Ú
Ê Gefe rsa R es ervoir -1
Leg ed adi re servoir
1000000
1000000
6
4
1
Ú
Ê Y
#
Addis Abe ba AMW15
17
·
# Chefe D onsa
Mt. W ec hec ha
Ú
Ê
16
990000
990000
15
Alem G ena
W ede cha reservo ir
LEGEND
Ú
Ê
Sebe ta Existing Akaki well field
Ú
Ê
Groundwater prospe ctive sites
Mt. F uri
AMW14 AMW9
·
# ·
# Mt. Yerer
Godino Prop osed prospe ctin g tran se ct line s
980000
980000
Ú Ak aki B eseka
Ê Ú
Ê (ge olog ical, h yd rog eolo gical an d geo ph yscia l, e tc)
9
Te fki
Ú
Ê 10
7
#
#
##
#
B) SOUTH AYAT- ·
# Ma pp ing we lls d rilled (W W DSE, 200 8)
# # # # ##
## # # NORTH FANTA WF Ayat Artesian W ell (AAW SA, 2 008 )
C) SEBETA - TEFEKI Boneya #
# # ## #
##
# #
Belbe la rese rvoir
^(
& SURROUNDING Ê Ú Aba Sa mu el
11
Ma jor G ro und wate r flow p aths (W W DSE, 200 8)
Lake Kilole
8
AMW22A Local grou ndw ater d ivide (W W D SE, 200 8)
AMW12B Lake Bish oft u Gu da 188 4
Ú
Ê
· ·#
970000
970000
Dukem Lake Ku rif tu Line amen ts (R eg iona l) Ejere
Mt. Guji
Lake che lelka
AMW22B Ú
Ê
Lake H ora
N
13 186 4
AMW12A Ú
Ê Debre Zeyt 200 0 0 200 0 400 0 Met ers
·
# Lake Bish oft u
185 6
Me lka K unture E) SOUTH WEST AND

14 Scale 1:250,000
AMW4 WEST OF AKAKI WELL FIELD
· ÊÚ
# 12
Lake H ad o RECOMMENDED PROSPECTIVE SITES AND

960000
960000
Mt. Bede Gebaba 187 0
MAJOR FROUNDWATER FLOW PATHS
D) MELKA
KUNTURE AREAS AMW21 (Adapted from WWDSE, March 2008
AMW5 ·
#
44000 0 45000 0 46000 0 47000 0 48000 0 49000 0 50000 0 51000 0 52000 0 53000 0

Consultancy Service for Reviewing the Study Draft Report Tasks 456
of Water III Project to Addis Ababa City
3.2.4 Ground water source developments around Addis Ababa
Studies and groundwater source development is ongoing on the five identified well fields
(Legedadi-Legetafo-Ayat (LLA), South Ayat-North Fanta (SANFWF), South west and west of
Akaki (SWAWF), Melka Kunture (MK), and Sebeta –Tefki (ST)). WWDSE is carrying out the study
and the supervision works for AAWSA. Evaluations and status of groundwater development of the
well fields based on study reports of WWDSE 2009 and 2011 and field generated data in 2012
and 2013 by WWDSE during production wells supervision are summarized below (see Figure
3.28).
3.2.4.1 South West and West of Old Akaki Well Field (SWAWF)
South West and West of Old Akaki Well Field (SWAWF) is located southwest of Akaki town.
SWAWF is divided into three parts, these are Well Field No. 1 (WF-01), Well Field No. 2 (WF-02)
and Well Field (WF03), and the total area of the well fields is about 100 km 2. Old Akaki well field
is located just southeast of these well fields.
A total of 45 production wells are drilled and completed in the three well fields and the following
is summary of test and production wells drilled in the three well fields to date (source WWDSE).
 Well field No.1 (WF-01), drilling and testing of 17 production wells are completed
with a total discharge of 1,178 l/s or 101,779 m 3/day and three production wells
are under completion. The well field is operational and some of the production wells
are not yet connected.
 Well field No.2 (WF-02), 15 production wells have been tested with a total
discharge of 952 l/s or 82,330 m3/day and 5 production wells are under
completion. The water supply system is under construction
 Well field No.3 (WF-03), 15 production wells with a total discharge of 1,045 l/s or
90,139 m3/day have been drilled and tested and 11 production wells are under
completion. The water supply system is under construction
 In the three well fields 47 production wells are drilled and tested and their total
yield is 3,176 l/s or 274,428 m3/day and 19 production wells are under
construction.
It has thus been estimated that a total of 223,000 m3/day can be supplied to Addis Ababa and
environs with when the drilling and construction works are completed in these three well fields.
The data obtained from the test wells drilled in SWAWF shows that:
 Transmissivity values obtained from analysis of pumping test data of production

and test wells range from 214 to 14,000 m2/day.
 Groundwater levels vary from artesian to greater than 100 m deep.

 The aquifer of the prospective site is thick (>300 m) and may not be fully
penetrated.
 Total dissolved solids range from 240 to 410 mg/l and all analyzed chemical
elements, including fluoride, are within the acceptable level of WHO’s
recommended standard for domestic uses.
Table 3.14 Summary of Completed Wells drilled in Akaki Prospective site - in the three
well fields as of November 2013 (Data obtained from WWDSE)
No. Well depth, m SWL, m Discharge in l/s Drawdown, m
Well
No. of Remark
field
wells min max avg min max Avg min max avg Total min max avg
1 WF-01 17 250 552 464 Artesian 40.4 19.5 22.0 140.0 69.3 1178.0 2.3 131.0 61.6 3 production wells
under completion-
well field
Operational
2 WF-02 15 306 550 462 41.6 107.6 64.3 30.0 142.0 68.1 952.9 2.3 93.0 35.8 5 production wells
under completion
3 WF-03 13 319 600 514 48.8 84.9 60.6 31.5 112.7 80.4 1045.4 5.5 84.2 29.8 11 production wells
under completion

Figure 3.29 Water wells drilled and under construction in the four well fields located south of Akaki Town (source
468 000 472 000 476 000 480 000 484 000
AA LEGEND
Y
# Production w ells Drilling
Y
#
Y
# Y
# Completed
r
Y
# Y
#
ive
# On Progre
980000
980000
Y
# Akaki
ki R
Y
# Y
# Old Akaki W F
Y
#
ka
town #
Boreholes
uA
# Y
#
is h
Y
# W ell fields
Y
#
T in
Y
# Y
#
Y
# Y
#
Old Akaki To D Rivers
er
# #
# Y
# uk
iv
Roads
WF em
Y
#
WF-01
ki R
# ## Abasam uel.
#
# # #
# Y
# # #
#
# Reserv oir
Aka
Y
# Y
# # Y#
#
976000
# #
976000
# Inundated area
Y
# # # # Y#
#
Y
# ##
Y
Y
# # # # Towns
Y
# Y
# #
#
# Villages
Y
# # #
Y
#
# Y
# Y
# Y
# #
Y
#
Y
#
Y
# Y
#
Y
#
WF-03 # Y#
# Y N
Y
# # # #
# Y
#
#
972000
972000
# Y
#
#
Y
# WF-02 Y
#
600 0 600 1200 Meter s
Y
# # 1:80000
Y
#
Y
# Y
#
DISTRIBUTION OF WELL FIELDS , DRILLED AND ON PROGRESS PRODUCTION WELLS IN AKAKI PROSPECTIVE SITE
468 000 472 000 476 000 480 000 484 000
WWDSE)

3.2.4.2 Replacement Production Wells Drilling in Old Akaki Well Field

The 25 wells drilled in 1990s were shallow and pumps can only be placed to a maximum
depth of about 100 m. Approximately 30,000 to 40,000 m 3/d was being pumped to the
city water supply system from these wells. Recent declines in water levels and yields
have been observed in these wells. Since the abstractions from the wells are not
monitored, the actual rate and the reason for the decline of the water level and yield are
not clear at this time. It was proposed to drill five replacement wells in Old Akaki well
field where the water level are lowered and the wells are not functional (WWDSE,2011).
Three of the five proposed wells were drilled by November 2013 and their results are
summarized in the Table 3.15.
Table 3.15 Summary of Replaced Production wells on Old Akaki well field
(data obtained from WWDSE)
Old Bore holes Replacement Bore holes
SWL
Distance
Well Casing (m) SWL Well Casing Draw
Inde from old SWL, Q,
Index depth Dia. during (m) depth Dia. Down Remark
x bore (m) (l/s)
(m) (inch) drilling (2013) (m) (inch) (m)
hole, m
(1997)
98%
Steel, recovery
Steel, BH10 249
BH10 92/130 72 93.6 59 14'' & 95.3 150 5.8 in the
14'' & 8'' R /510
8'' first 5
minutes
83%
Steel, recovery
Steel, BH13 226/55
BH13 70/119 32 78.0 30 14'' & 76.6 55 61.1 in the
14'' & 8'' R 0
8'' first
minute
90%
Steel, recovery
Steel, BH22 248/46
BH22 93/142 48 68.8 52 14'' & 66.7 100 53.7 in the
14'' & 8'' R 4
8'' first
minute
During the pump test of the replacement wells the old bore holes were used as
observation wells and no drawdown was observed in the old boreholes during the whole
duration of the test. Construction works at the two remaining replacement wells are
currently in progress.

Figure 3.30 Pumping test discharge on BH10R Replacement well in Old Akaki
well field Q=150 l/s (source WWDSE)
3.2.4.3 Legetafo-Legedadi-Ayat (LLA)

The LLA area was mapped by AG Consult in 2001 and classified as a fractured aquifer
which in most cases could yield 2-4 l/s. The dominant part of LLA was considered as an
impermeable zone in the Akaki well field groundwater modelling report of BCEOM-
SEURECA SPACE, (2000). However, according to the Ada’a-Becho Groundwater
Evaluation project (WWDSE, 2008) this area was identified as one of the main
groundwater flow paths and was considered to be a zone of high groundwater potential.
The LLA is delineated into three potential well fields (WWDSE, 2009) along an east-west
direction perpendicular to the regional groundwater flow and test, and production wells
were drilled in the identified areas.
In well field LLA-WF-01 two wells were drilled to a depth of 432 to 500 m and their yields
were 15 and 20 l/s with high drawdown 125 and 79 meters respectively. The result of
the test wells were well below expectations and the low yields are now considered to be
possibly a result of poor drilling practices.
In Well field LLA-WF-03, that is upstream of Legedadi Reservoir, all four drilled test and
production wells are either artesian or confined. Well No. LLA -4 is a flowing well and it
has 8 m of head above ground surface and it has been flowing at 116 l/s rate (see
Figures 3.31 and 3.32. The drilling results of the four wells drilled in LLA are summarized
in Table 3.16.

Table 3.16 Summary of Completed Wells drilled in LLA by November 2013
Well No. Well depth, m SWL, m Discharge in l/s Drawdown, m

No. field of Remark
Index wells min max Avg. min max Avg. min max Avg. min max avg
3 pilot production
LLA- wells are under
1 WF-03 4 181.0 598.0 350.3 flowing 32.2 15.0 38.0 116.0 64.0 0.0 78.9 26.3 completion
It is planned to pump at 42,000 m3/d rates from the four completed wells and three
more wells which are under construction. As per the communication made with WWDSE
experts, the evaluation of groundwater resources of Legedadi area groundwater
prospective site is on progress and it will be finalized by the end of December 2013.
Figure 3.31 LLA-4 Artesian well (Q=116 l/s) during drilling
Durin
g
Drillin
g

Figure 3.32 LLA-4 Artesian well (Q=116 l/s), current.
3.2.4.4 South Ayat – North Fanta Well Field (SANFWF)
According to the hydrogeological map prepared by AG consult in 2001, olivine basalts,

scoria and vesicular basalts cover the major part of the SANFWF groundwater
prospective site. The major lithologic units that were encountered during drilling of the
existing AAWSA wells in this zone were mainly scoriaceous basalt, scoria and vesicular
basalts. These wells were drilled up to 260 m depths and have discharge rates up to 43
l/s with about 10 m drawdowns. Existing private wells in the area have yields up to 40
l/s discharge rate and flowing artesian wells are common in Bole-Lemi area.
Test wells drilled in SANFWF show that the area has high yielding aquifers. The summary
of test well drilled is summarized in the following Table 3.17.
Table 3.17 Test wells drilled in SANFWF prospective site
Coordinate UTM
Zone 37 Adindan Dynamic
Depth, Static water Draw Q, test, Specific well yield,
No water
m level, m down, m (l/S) l/s/m
UTM UTM level, m
east north
1 477891 987018 411 8.9 80.1 71.2 35.0 0.49
2 484001 987465 442 0.4 41.5 41.2 52.0 1.26
3 481012 984597 440 29.8 75.5 45.7 50.0 1.09

According to the WWDSE specialists, the evaluation of the groundwater resources of

SANFWF area is currently in progress and it will only be finalized after more geophysical
investigation have been carried out.
3.2.4.5 Sebeta-Tefki (SB)

Sebeta-Tefki (SB) is located on the eastern margin of Becho Plain. Geological mapping,
geophysical investigation and drilling of test wells are carried out by WWDSE on this site.
The result of drilling test wells is given in Table 3.18 below.
Table 3.18 Test wells drilled in SBF prospective site
Coordinate UTM Zone 37

Static Dynamic Specific
Adindan
Well water water Draw Q, test, well yield,
Well Index UTM east UTM north Depth, m level, m level, m down, m (l/S) l/s/m
1 438871 977186 443 12.7 58.7 46.1 41.0 0.88
2 447224 978514 440 13.4 99.5 86.0 20.0 0.23
3 449082 980399 440 10.7 104.4 93.7 13.1 0.14
Only one well, which is located towards Tefki, of the three drilled wells penetrated to the
main aquifer. The other 2 wells were not deep enough and did not strike the lower and
main aquifer and that is why the specific yields of the two wells are low compared to the
first one. WWDSE they are planning to carry out deep test well drillings (in the order of
500 m) before further evaluating the prospect of the groundwater source of the region.
3.2.5 Summary of current and future abstractions

The existing, under-construction and planned ground water sources and their actual (A)
or estimated (E) yields are summarised in Table 3.19.
Table 3.19 Summary of existing and future ground water sources
Yield
Wellfield ID Remarks
(m3/d)
Existing shallow wells 103,000 To be withdrawn in future.
Old Akaki 40,000 Replacements under construction.
South West & West of Old Akaki 223,000 Under construction
Legetafi-Legadadi-Ayat 42,000 Under construction.
South Ayat-North Fanta Unknown Awaiting further investigations.
Sebeta-Tefki Unknown Awaiting further investigations.
TOTAL 408,000
3.2.6 Water quality and pollution threat

All test and production wells drilled for the study, and several existing water wells and
sources, were sampled and analysed for their chemical qualities during studies carried
out by WWDSE on Addis Ababa Water Supply and Ada’a Becho Plain Irrigation projects.

Analysis of the water samples collected from wells drilled in groundwater prospective
areas show that the chemical or dissolved solids contents of the groundwater in aquifers
of the surrounding areas of Addis Ababa meet the standard set by World Health
Organisation (WHO) for domestic uses. None of the undesirable elements, such as
fluoride and nitrate, are above the permissible levels.
Studies carried out on the quality of the Akaki river, which drains the Akaki well fields,
show that the surface water is contaminated from industrial and domestic wastes.
However, the well field is blanketed with thick clay soil and the aquifer developed in the
well field is deep seated. Accordingly, there is no pollution threat from infiltration of the
river water into the main aquifer. One particular well was reported to have high nitrate
content; subsequent investigations confirmed that the pollution was caused by
infiltration of contaminated surface water around the well head.
Groundwater is, and will continue to be, a major water supply source for Addis Ababa
and its environs. Settlement areas and industrial zones are expanding around the city
and there is an increasing risk of pollution encroaching into the well fields and the
recharge zones. Regular monitoring of the groundwater, regulating the land use
practices in the well fields and the recharge areas and controlling exploitation of the
aquifer by other users is mandatory to keep the aquifer from pollution threat and
overexploitation.
3.2.7 Reliability of previous evaluations of ground water
Several bodies have carried out groundwater exploration, evaluation, reviewing and
modeling works on the surroundings Addis Ababa. Almost all the studies carried out
before 2005 were focused on studying and identifying isolated well fields and they did
not treat the groundwater basin of Addis Ababa area as a whole. As a result of these
isolated and partial studies of a wide groundwater basin the conclusions reached by the
study groups were inconsistent and contradictory.
There is no single organisation that actively collects and documents groundwater data
from drilled water wells; consequently, activities and reporting are fragmented and dis-
jointed. The groundwater monitoring practices are week in general and because of these
there is no organized groundwater data for the areas around Addis Ababa. The modelling
of the Akaki Well field (BCEOM, Seureca, 2000) is contrary to the present
understandings of the hydrogeology of the area. The main reason for contradictory
results of that study was lack of adequate hydrogeological data.
In 2006 WWDSE initiated a study for Adaa Becho Plain Irrigation Project and it started its
groundwater investigation project by studying the whole groundwater basin of the
project area, which covers the Upper Awash River Basin and southern part of Abbay

(Blue Nile) basin. The whole of Addis Ababa groundwater basin is within the Adaa Becho
Plain Groundwater Basin. The hydrogeology information obtained from the irrigation
project has been used for reassessing and exploring the groundwater around Addis
Ababa. Under-evaluated well fields (such as that of Akaki area) and areas that were
considered as groundwater barriers (Legedadi Area) are found to be areas of high
groundwater potentials based on information obtained from the study.
Currently evaluation of the groundwater sources of Addis Ababa areas are being
undertaken using the concepts and results found from Adaa Becho Irrigating Project
Study, and this study itself is not yet completed. Additional test wells are being drilled in
the study area to generate more data and reach final conclusion on the groundwater
source of the project area. Therefore the evaluations carried out to date on the well
fields of Addis Ababa area are not final and require refining. Conducting a comprehensive
groundwater study of Addis Ababa area that includes the whole groundwater basin is
needed. The development of the water sources (ground and surface) database under
Task 7 of this consultancy will provide an invaluable tool for storing, updating and
retrieving essential information on these sources. Collecting, generating and managing
the groundwater data of the region is mandatory for any better understanding,
exploitation and management of the groundwater sources of Addis Ababa area.
3.2.8 Monitoring and wellfield managment
The existing monitoring system of the well fields and the organizational establishment of
the well field management of Addis Ababa well field are not to the standards that the
such an important resource demands. Only one well field, WF-01 of the Akaki area, is
equipped with proper monitoring system. There is no single entity that collects and
analyses the data from the monitoring system and the existing system is not
maintained. Groundwater is a major source of water supply source for Addis Ababa and
proper management and follow-up of the system is very important. Because of the
absence of monitoring data it is impossible to make sustainable statements on the
current situation of shallow and deep well; different agencies have differing opinions and
there is no centralized fact basis that would avoid such a situation.
Monitoring individual wells (such as the shallow wells distributed in the city and pumped
for public uses) and group of wells that are developed to pump from well fields is
important because:
 Electronic monitoring devices which may easily be installed in individual wells

will continuously record EC, temperature water level and even discharges of the
pumps. The devices can be formatted to collect the data at desired regular time
intervals. Regular analysis of the data can show changes on TDS and

temperature of groundwater, changes on trends of dynamic and static water

levels, pumping hours, changes on the discharge of the pumps, etc. This
information not only shows the changes on the groundwater situations, it can
also give important information on pumping units and on physical condition of
the well itself;
 Monitoring of groups of wells in a well field will give information on the overall
groundwater conditions changes of the well field, changes in water quality, the
amount of water individual pumps or wells contributed to the system, the
general groundwater exploitation and recharge balances, etc.;
 The surroundings of monitoring wells that are not pumped are not directly
disturbed or influenced by discharges of pumps. Data from this type of
monitoring wells shows the groundwater fluctuation or trend of the well field
and it is important for early warning. It is strongly recommended to always
have non pumped monitoring wells in all well fields;
 Collecting water samples from pumped or non-pumped wells at regular interval
and carrying out water quality analysis shows the pollution threats and sources
of pollutant and direction of the movement of the pollutant in the aquifer.
Establishing an organized monitoring system will facilitate the groundwater management

of the organization, will alert the organization of any danger or threat that may occur in
the future, and give very important information for the study and evaluation of the well
field and the regional groundwater system.
The major well fields of Addis Ababa water supply system sources are scattered around
the city and there is fast encroachment of industrial zones and settlements into the well
fields. For example, the scoria hills and the surroundings of southeast Akaki town was
once farmland and now it is covered with industries and settlement. This area is covered
with highly porous and permeable scoria deposit and any liquid that drains from the
industries or settlements can easily infiltrate into the Akaki well field, which is a major
groundwater source for the city water supply system.
The concerned organizations that decide, plan and manage the land use of the well field
areas and the recharge zones may not have be aware of the risks of polluting the
aquifer. Unfortunately, almost all the well fields and possible future well fields are facing
the problem of encroachment of settlement and industrial zones.
There is no regulation on the type of land use, liquid and solid waste disposal, water well
or any bore hole construction standards and sanitary protection practices, etc. in the well
field and recharge zones of the aquifers. AAWSSA, or another competent water body
such as the Ministry of water & Energy, must have a say or means of controlling such

developments to safeguard the groundwater sources and Addis Ababa’s future water
supplies.
3.2.9 Conclusions
There are grounds for a positive prospecting of groundwater resources within 50 km

radius from the center of Addis Ababa City. The estimated annual groundwater recharge
of this area is 965 Mm3 (Ada’a and Becho Plain Groundwater Irrigation Development
Project study, WWDSE, 2008). It has been estimated that over 500,000 m3/d of water
can be reliably abstracted from the Southwest and West of Akaki, Old Akaki, Legedadi-
Legetafo-Ayat, South Ayat-North Fanta and Sebeta–Tefki well fields. Other potential
ground water sources, such as Melka Kunture, Becho, and the areas around Dukem and
Bisheftu can be considered as buffer zones for safety margins of sustainability of
groundwater resources for Addis Ababa Water Supply. Chemical quality analysis results
of samples collected from the above mentioned well fields are within the acceptable
limits of WHO standards for domestic uses and no high risk of groundwater pollution
threat has been identified at this stage.
The groundwater resource potential estimates produced to date for possible aquifers
around Addis Ababa are not based on data collected and observations made over
extended periods time and consequently, there is significant probability of over- or
under- estimation of the resource. The estimates must now be supported with data
collected over long periods from regular monitoring of groundwater level fluctuation and
water quality of pumped and observation wells within the well fields, recharge zones and
the surrounding areas.
Water supply from groundwater sources accounts for a major portion of the total water
supply of Addis Ababa currently and it will remain so for the future. Therefore, a better
understanding of the resource is important for its sustainability. A comprehensive and
detailed study, that include modelling and is supported by data collected from monitoring
of the well fields, is required for better understanding of the groundwater resources that
are within 50 km radius from the centre of Addis Ababa.
3.2.10 Recommendations
Groundwater resource will continue to be a major water supply source for Addis Ababa
and actions must be taken to make it sustainable. The following recommendations are
made based on the observations made in the course of this consultancy study:
 Regular monitoring of the groundwater fluctuation and water quality is
mandatory in all the existing well fields, prospective well fields that are not
developed yet and the recharge zones. A data base should be established
for recording all data including information of electromechanical equipment

installed in the well fields. (Note: This should be compatible with the
source database being developed under Task 7 of this study.)
 A properly staffed and resourced office should be established within
AAWSSA to be responsible for
- Managing the well fields;
- Managing the groundwater exploitation;
- Monitoring of wells, well fields, recharge zones and all water wells
of AAWSSA;
- Monitoring on water quality of water from wells in the well fields,
surrounding areas and recharge zones and assess possibility of
pollution risks;
- Collecting data, managing the data base, analysing the collected
data, maintaining the monitoring system;
- Regulate and give permits for any groundwater exploitation in the
well fields and recharge zones, etc.
 The groundwater resources are increasingly being exposed to the risk of
pollution unless the well field and the recharge areas are protected and
monitored. AAWWSA (or another body involved in water resources), must
have an input into the decision-making on types of land use practices or
developments within the well fields and recharge zone to protect the
groundwater resource from pollution.
 It is recommended that AAWSSA establishes a pollution control strategy
policy for well fields and recharge zones.
 The shallow wells distributed in the city may continue to be used to solve
immediate and short-term water problems. However, they are difficult to
manage and exposed for pollution; wells that are located in defined well
fields are more manageable. It is recommended to slowly phase out these
shallow wells, starting with the low yielding ones and replacing these with
the new wells from the planned future well fields.
 Groundwater resource studies carried out so far for Addis Ababa Water
Supply Sources are mainly based on the study results of Adaa Becho Plain
Irrigation project and some of the studies are based on results of studies
made on isolated well fields. It is recommended to carry out a more
comprehensive groundwater assessment and evaluation studies in areas
within 50 km radius of Addis Ababa. The study should include the
following:
- extend the study for Addis Ababa areas groundwater basin,

- collect data and review existing studies within this groundwater

basin,
- Generate data from deep test wells and other surveys for the
study,
- Develop groundwater modelling for the basin. However, this should
only be carried out when adequate data for the modelling has been
compiled and validated. Groundwater modelling conducted with
inadequate or invalid data is misleading and should be avoided.
3.2.11 Environmental Impact Assessment
3.2.11.1 Introduction
The hydrogeological review of the groundwater source potential of areas surrounding

Addis Ababa has determined that there is ample potential for water to be exploited
within a 50 km radius from the major city and that, in the near future, the identified
areas can serve as a major source of water supply for Addis Ababa. The estimated
annual groundwater recharge of these areas are reported to have a cumulative potential
of 965 Mm3. Together, the groundwater potential sites may provide over 500,000
m3/day of water supply to the inhabitants of the city.
Thus, the environmental quality and sustainability of the proposed groundwater sources
is of high concern and should be developed and operated in compliance with existing
regional, national and international standards. It is with these objectives that a
preliminary assessment review of the environmental aspects of the proposed well field
sites has been conducted.
3.2.11.2 Prospective Groundwater Sources
Five areas in the vicinity of Addis Ababa have been identified as prospective groundwater
source development sites for the plan period. The proposed well fields are designated as
follows:
 South west and west of Akaki (SWAWF)
 Legedadi-Legetafo-Ayat (LLA)
 South Ayat-North Fanta (SANFWF)
 Melka Kunture (MK)
 Sebeta-Tefki (ST)
All of these well fields are located within a 50 km radius from the center of Addis Ababa,
though they are found situated along different directions from the city, see Figure 3.28.

3.2.11.3 Baseline Environmental Characteristics
The existing environmental condition of the well fields differs according to their location.
However, all sites fall within intensively developed and/or developing catchment areas.
The developments within the well field and recharge zones are agricultural, residential,
commercial and industrial activities.
 Southwest and West of Akaki Well Field
The proposed Southwest and West Akaki Well Field (SWAWF) has a total area of about
100 km2 and, as its name suggests, it is located southwest of the Old Akaki well field. It
is partially located in the Akaki-Kality Sub City of Addis Ababa with the remaining
portions located in the neighboring Gelan Woreda of the Oromia Special Zone. The
SWAWF area is primarily characterized as an agricultural land, which includes intensively
crop-cultivated areas, grazing territories and forests. However, within the catchment of
the well field, there are also rural settlements, industrial facilities, traffic loaded road
infrastructure, villages and towns.
Figure 3.33 Present dominant land use of the prospective SWAWF well field (L)
and condominium complexes (R)
Currently, there is a new railway line that is under construction and will pass through the
proposed well field site and will be in close proximity of some of the dug wells.
Residential settlement development projects including condominium complexes are also
being constructed within the proposed well field area and in catchments upstream of the
of the prospective well field site. There is no significant natural vegetation nor sensitive
environmental components located in this area as the land area is predominantly
covered by intensively cultivated crops.
Both the Big Akaki River and Little Akaki River, which collect runoff from the city of Addis
Ababa and other satellite towns of the area, travel through the proposed site. Adjacent
to the well field is also the Aba Samuel Lake, one of the major recipients of the flows

that drain the city of Addis Ababa. The Little and Big Akaki Rivers both discharge their
flows into this lake.
Regarding the water quality and pollution risks, the following data has been reported by
the hydro-geological review report of current study:
 The aquifer of the prospective site is thick (m>300) and may not be fully
penetrated;
 Total dissolved solids range from 240 to 410 mg/l and all analyzed
chemical elements, including fluoride, are within the acceptable level of
the WHO recommended standard for domestic uses;
 Transmissivity values vary from 214 to 14,000 m2/day;
 Groundwater levels vary from artesian to greater than 100 m deep.
 Legedadi–Legetafo-Ayat Well Field
The prospective Legedadi-Legetafo-Ayat (LLA) well field area is found within the Berek
Woreda of the Oromia Special Zone. This groundwater source and the Legedadi Water
Reservoir, which currently supplies surface water to the city of Addis Ababa, share the
same catchment.
Figure 3.34 An artesian well developed adjacent to the Legedadi Reservoir

(about 300m distance).
The land use and land cover of the catchment is a key factor in evaluating the
environmental sustainability of the prospective water sources. Hence, both the existing
and planned uses of the catchment have been assessed with regard to the
environmental and water source quality aspects of the water source development
planning.

Figure 3.35 Dominant land use of the prospective LLA Well Field.
The land use and land cover of the LLA prospective site predominantly includes cereal
crop fields and grasslands. There is no significant forest cover within the LLA area,
though several patches of sown trees, such as Eucalyptus trees, are found throughout
the site.
According to information obtained from the Berek Woreda Administration, the major
existing land use is best characterized as agricultural land. This includes cultivated land,
grazing land and forest areas. The woreda covers an estimated area of 77,223 hectares;
the land use data for the entire woreda is summarized in Table 3.20.
Table 3.20 Land use in Berek Woreda
Land Use Type Area

(ha)
Cultivated Land 42,774
Grazing Land 15,002
Forest and Bush Land 14,335
Other Uses 5,112
Total 77,223
Source: Berek Woreda Administration, 2013.
Local urbanization and industrialization activities of towns and selected sites surrounding
the LLA areas are may have an impact on the proposed site. The town of Sendafa,
located just east of the site, is expanding and other emerging villages and towns are also
flourishing in the catchment. According to the Berek Woreda Administration, there are
several commercial farms and industries located in and around the LLA site including
flower farms, dairy farms and construction material abstraction. In addition to the

existing industries located in and around the LLA site, there are also industrial projects
that are in the early stages of development. Land has been demarcated for a giant
industrial establishment, the Ethio–Turkish Industrial City, within the catchment.
Although only 100 hectares is being developed currently, the establishment is expected
to eventually cover 1,000 hectares of land and will include the following industrial
sectors:
 Textiles,
 Electronics,
 Food,
 Chemical/pharmaceutical,
 Leather,
 Paper and packing,
 Furniture,
 Metals and machinery.
 Joint industry,
 Recyclable materials processing.
As a result of the proximity of the proposed industrial sectors listed above, existing
industrial activities located near the LLA site and the local urban centers, there are
serious pollution risks for both the envisaged groundwater sources and the existing
Legedadi Reservoir.
 South Ayat-North Fanta Well Field
The proposed South Ayat-North Fanta Well Field (SANFWF) is located in the southeastern
portion of Addis Ababa and directly northwest of the Old Akaki Well Field. The site has an
area of 131 km2 and includes sections of a few sub cities of Addis Ababa including the
Akaki-Kality and Bole Sub Cities.
The majority of the project site is characterized by agricultural land, consisting of

cultivated areas, grazing territories, and forests. Rural residences are scattered
throughout this area. There are also several developed sections of the site, the most
substantial of which are the Science and Technology University, condominium
complexes, and the Heineken Factory currently being developed. Additionally, a line of
the Addis Ababa Light Rail system is being constructed on the southwestern side of the
site.

Because of the proximity of these large institutional, residential, and industrial

establishments and transport routes, there is the potential for water pollution caused by
mismanaged waste and accidental chemical spills. With regard to the existing status of
water quality from groundwater sources located in this area, the aquifer thickness and
groundwater levels, additional geophysical investigation is expected to occur in this area
to allow a thorough evaluation of the groundwater resources.
 Melka Kunture Well Field
Although the Melka Kunture (MK) area was one of the initial sites proposed for well field
development, this prospective site is no longer being considered as part of the Addis
Ababa Water Supply Project Phase III. For this reason, it has not been considered further
under the current study.
 Sebeta –Tefki Well Field
The Sebeta–Tefki (ST) prospective well field site is located west of the city of Addis
Ababa, in the Sebeta Hawas Woreda of the Oromia Special Zone. It is situated within the
Awash River flood plain and is seasonally water inundated by floods from the Awash
River during heavy rains, and remains a seasonal wetland area for some months every
year.
The ST potential area is mainly covered with intensively cultivated cereal crop fields,
horticulture fields, and livestock grazing grounds. There are also sparsely scattered farm
residences in the catchment. No threat of pollution from domestic or industrial sources is
prevalent at present, unlike at the other prospective sites. However, use of
agrochemicals for the farm is similar to that of other places.
Figure 3.36 Test Pit Dug for Assessment at the ST Prospective Site (L) and
Dominant Land Use of the ST Well Field Area (R)
According to data collected from the Sebeta Woreda, the land use and land cover of the
woreda consists of agricultural land - which describes the majority of the land use - ,

industrial facilities; rural residences; and town centres. The agricultural land is a
composite of farmlands, grazing areas and forests. A large Ethio-Turkish factory is
located in this area also. Commercial farms such as flower farming and dairy farming has
also been established here.
The Sebeta Woreda, like the other districts that have been assessed, is demonstrating
significant growth through industrial development projects and the expansion of local
towns. According to the woreda, at least two new industrial projects have commenced
establishment. A 15 hectare plot of land has been set aside for the construction of one
factory, while another 6 hectare plot of land has been set aside for the construction of
another. Small towns surrounding the ST project area have also exhibited growth and
development; the most developed town in the area is Sebeta, which is located east of
the ST area.
3.2.11.4 Environmental issues within the well fields
Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) studies have not as yet been conducted for any
of the proposed well fields. The sole EIA that has been prepared is for the Old Akaki Well
Field that has been supplying water to Addis Ababa for several years. Thus, detailed
assessment and identification at project level has not been solicited for each of the
proposed well field sites.
However, many of the proposed well field sites share several environmental issues that
must be addressed prior to the implementation of the well field proposals. The issues are
listed below:
 Occupation of fertile plots of farmland for the project activities at different

locations;
 Interference and conflicts with planned urbanization and industrial

development projects within the respective catchments;
 Pollution risks to the ground water; including point and non-point sources,
 Impacts related to industrial, agricultural, and urban development

activities in the area.
Each of the environmental and land use management issues can be effectively managed
with proper land use planning and the development of an environmental and land use
management system.

3.2.11.5 Conclusions and Recommendations
 Conclusions
According to the hydrogeological study findings, groundwater will continue to be a major

source of Addis Ababa city’s water supply.
The report also confirms that analysis results of the water samples collected from water
wells drilled in the groundwater prospective areas show chemical or dissolved solids
contents that meet the standards set by WHO for domestic uses. None of the undesired
elements such as fluoride and nitrate are above the permissible levels.
Much of the proposed well field areas are currently intensively cultivated crop fields,
many are also surrounded by towns that are expanding due to increased urbanization
and the development of factories due to increased industrialization. Small-scale
traditional farming and large-scale commercial farms including flower farms and dairy
farms are abundant in the proposed well field areas. Additionally, industries, workshops
and other establishments have also been identified in and surrounding these areas and
will continue to develop in the future.
There is there is a strong risk of pollution in the potential well field areas and the
recharge zones. This issue will become more aggravated as the well water continues to
be exploited and as the water level lowers through time.
These pollution risks are the major threat, possibly difficult and complicated to control.
This is due to the challenges that are encountered in regulating the land use practices
and land use planning, both within the well fields as well as in the recharge zones. It is
also a challenge to bring substantial changes and improvements in the waste
management practices, within a short period, especially in the recharge zones.
Some of the well fields, like the Akaki well field are located adjacent to river courses and
wetland areas that are conveying and receiving highly polluted water and waste water
collected from the cities and towns in their respective catchments. The possibility of
migration and encroachment by pollutants into those well water sources is high. It has
been reported that one well in the Akaki well field was found to have a high nitrate
content and it was confirmed that the pollution was caused by infiltration of polluted
surface water around the well head. However, the report concluded that the well field is
blanketed with thick clay soil and the aquifer developed in the well field is deep seated
and that there is no pollution threat from the infiltration of the river water into the main
aquifer.
All of these impacts and the likelihood of these risks must be monitored and followed up
periodically with an alarm system put in place, if the groundwater sources are to be used

with confidence. Without such systems, it will be difficult to determine when and how
these potential risks of pollution may occur. Adequate sizes of buffer zones should be
established and monitored for each of the well field sites as well as the surrounding each
of the wells.
 Recommendations
The hydro-geological review of the current study has confirmed that groundwater
resources shall be the major water supply source of Addis Ababa for the immediate
future and actions need to be taken to ensure its sustainability. It further proposes
regular monitoring of the groundwater fluctuation and water quality monitoring in all the
existing and prospective well fields that have not yet been developed as well as the
recharge zones. This recommendation is shared and should be pursued to ensure the
water source sustainability and its safe utilization, though the consultant has
reservations from the points of view of the difficulties and complications of
implementation and realizing those actions. In this regard, it is the proposal of this
preliminary EIA report that further detailed assessments be made both from hydro-
geological points of view and environmental perspectives. These assessments should
result in clear conclusive remarks for each of the well fields.
The establishment of a well-organized environmental management system and

assignment of environmental unit is essential. It is for this reason that a detailed
Environmental Impact Assessment study must be administered and proposals for the
environmental management and monitoring should be submitted. The design and
operation of the well fields should consider those environmental issues and incorporate
the recommendations presented in the assessment and proposals in the project
implementation. There is already a unit in AAWSA dealing with water quality and
catchment management issues, especially focusing on the surface water sources. This
unit must be strengthened and empowered to undertake the well field monitoring.

4.0 TASK 6: RECOMMEND ALTERNATIVE RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT

SCENARIOS
4.1 Demand versus Yield analyses
4.1.1 Summary of yields
The yields available from current and identified surface and ground water sources are
summarised in Table 4.1.
Table 4.1 Summary of sources and yields
Yield(m3/d)
Source Remarks
Option A Option B
Surface water
Existing facilities 222,000 222,000 As reported in Tasks 123
Gerbi 74,100 74,100 95% of estimated yield
Sibilu 406,600 142,500 95% of estimated yield
Sub-totals 702,700 438,600
Existing shallow wells 103,000 103,000 To be withdrawn in future.
Old Akaki 40,000 40,000 Replacements under construction.
South West & West of Old Akaki 223,000 223,000 Under construction
Legetafi-Legadadi-Ayat 42,000 42,000 Under construction.
South Ayat-North Fanta Unknown Unknown Awaiting further investigations.
Sebeta-Tefki Unknown Unknown Awaiting further investigations.
Sub-totals 408,000 408,000
TOTALS 1,110,700 846,600
4.1.2 Summary of demands
The current and future demands are summarised below in Table 4.2.
Table 4.2 Summary of demands
AADD (m3/d)
Consumer
2020 2030
Class
LOW MEDIUM HIGH LOW MEDIUM HIGH
Domestic 435,575 463,817 493,726 583,166 638,771 703,769
Comm./Admin. 174,230 185,527 197,490 233,266 255,508 281,508
Industrial 152,451 162,336 172,804 204,108 223,570 246,319
Net Demand 762,256 811,680 864,020 1,020,540 1,117,850 1,231,596
NRW 228,677 243,504 259,206 204,108 223,570 246,319
GROSS
990,932 1,055,184 1,123,226 1,224,648 1,341,419 1,477,915
DEMAND

4.1.3 Analyses of Demand vs. Yield
Option A (Sibilu constructed to its full capacity) can meet the estimated 2020 LOW and
MEDIUM demands and is only slightly (1%) short of the 2020 HIGH demand. It falls far
short of all the 2030 estimated demands.
Option B (Sibilu constructed to a FSLmax of 2552 mAMSL) falls well short of all the
estimated 2020 demands and would only supply 63% of the estimated 2030 MEDIUM
demands.
4.2 Alternative sources
4.2.1 Surface water
4.2.1.1 Previous Consultants’ proposals
Since the beginning of the Water III project in 1984, potential sites for surface water
resources were identified. These include:
 the Gerbi and Sibilu dam proposed north of Addis Ababa;

 Little Akaki river downstream of the Gefersa reservoir;
 Legedadi river downstream of the existing Legedadi reservoir.
The technical aspects of Sibilu and Gerbi were revised and updated in the present study.
The proposals on the utilization of extra surface water from the Little Akaki river
downstream of the Gefersa reservoir and Legedadi river downstream of the existing
reservoir are far from ideal because the upstream surface water abstraction activities at
Gefersa reservoir and Dire dam have changed the hydrologic regime of the system.
Furthermore, other planned development activities will have impacts on the
implementation of the plans. Therefore, the future potential surface water development
are now considered to lie in the areas located north of Addis Ababa, i.e. in the Abay
River basin and partly in the Upper Awash River Basin.
4.2.1.2 Alternative sites
Hydrologically, the potential sites in the Abay basin (located north of Addis Ababa) are
expected to provide sustainable supply for the future water requirement of the city.
There are possibilities of collecting extra water source from Sibilu catchment. This can be
achieved through provision of a smaller dam downstream of the proposed Sibilu dam
below the Muger gauging station. This option is proposed should Option B for Sibilu be
adopted because of the negative impacts and costs of the high level impoundment. Any
excess water not retained by the smaller dam may be captured at the lower dam site.

The exact location and capacity of this lower dam will however require a more detailed
investigation, than is being provided under this Consultancy.
Another potential site has been identified in the Upper Awash River Basin, at a station
called Melka Kunture. This station was first investigated in 1972 as part of Becho Plain
Reclamation Study. Originally, it was intended for hydropower generation, with some 39
MW of installed power capacity. The estimated capacity of a reservoir at this site was
105 Mm3 at FSL of 2060 mAMSL. This level approximates to the FSLmax for Sibilu; thus
pumping costs would be similar for both schemes.
The Consultant undertook reconnaissance survey in August, 2013 to this site, Figure 14.
Upstream of the bridge, the site appears geologically stable and sound; however,
downstream of the bridge, there is an abrupt drop of water creating a natural waterfall.
This sudden drop in topography is indicative of a potential fault zone in the geology of
the site that would demand a comprehensive ground investigation before any further
research.
Figure 4.1 Location of Melka Kunture along Awash River.

Figure 4.2 Flow gauging station (L) and bridge (R) at Melka Kunture.
Some major catchment characteristics have been collected from MoWR. The site has
been gauged since 1962 and coded as 031012 at a location of 8 o42’ latitude, 38o36’
longitude and average elevation of 2332 mAMSL. Far downstream of this site, there is
Koka dam which is reportedly suffering a siltation problem. The provision of upstream
storage at Melka Kunture could thus have an added value with positive impact through
sediment control for Koka dam and also enhancement of the groundwater recharge of in
Becho plain.
There is a staff rod with a cable way gauging arrangement. However the automatic
station seems to be non-functioning. The area that contributes to the site covers nearly
4456 km2 with mean annual flow of about 900 Mm3. Figure 4.3 was produced from the
daily time series data at Melka Kunture that spans from January, 1966 to December,
2008. It shows 0.86 m3/s and 0.65 m3/s at 90th and 95th exceedence probabilities
respectively with mean daily flow of 28.55 m3/s.
Figure 4.3 Flow duration curve of daily flow at Melka Kunture (031012)
The estimated yield from the catchment is ………… m3/d.

4.2.2 Ground water
The principal ground water sources that have yet to be fully investigated or expoited are
the wellfields at South Ayat – North Fanta (SANFWF) and Sebeta – Tefki SBWF), see
Section 3.2.4. SANFWF appears to be particularly promising; however, it must be borne
in mind that further investigations, including geophysical investigations and aquifer
modelling will be required before any definitive statement can be made as regards this
sources potential yields.
Sebeta – Tefki has to date been less promising than was originally expected. This may
be a result of inadequate drilling and it is proposed to extend the test drilling depths to
500m before any conclusions can be drawn on this potential source.
4.2.3 Conclusions
Significant further investigations are required to establish with any certainty the safe
yields from the identified alternative surface and ground water resources. It is not
possible at this time to make any forecasts of potential yields that could be substantiated
by our current knowledge of these sources.
As the existing and identified future sources combined will be inadequate for the 2030
demands, and only sufficient to meet the 2020 demands if Sibilu is developed to its full
potential, it is clear that alternative sources must be further investigated and developed.
4.3 Development scenarios
4.3.1 Outline of scenarios
At this stage there are 3 effective scenarios, as follows:
 Scenario 1 - Construct Sibilu dam to its maximum potential, which will meet the
2020 demands, with alternative source development to commence in 2017 and
producing 113,948 LOW, 230,719 MEDIUM or 367,215 m3/d HIGH to meet the
2030 demands;
 Scenario 2 - Construct Sibilu dam to a FSL of 2552 mAMSL and exploit alternative
sources, most likely South Ayat – North Fanta and Sebeta – Tefki wellfields to
fulfill the 2020 shortfall (144,332 LOW, 208,584 MEDIUM or 276,626 m 3/d
HIGH);
 Scenario 3 – Ignore Sibilu, develop known wellfields and alternative surface water
source immediately.
For both options the unknowns at this time are what yields can be expected from the
two new wellfields. The best “guesstimate” that can be made at the moment is that uo to
200,000 m3/d may be abstracted from such wellfields within a 50km radius of Addis

Ababa city. Should these not be able to supply the potential shortfalls in 2020 and 2030,
ranging from 113,948 to 367,215 m3/d, then the alternative surface water sources must
be implemented.
4.3.2 Recommendations
Given the uncertainties with regard to the contributions that may be made by the new
wellfields it is recommended that Sibilu dam be constructed to a height to achieve
maximum abstraction. It is noted that this option has considerable mitigation costs, but
even allowing for these, the proposal has been shown to be feasible in terms of
technical, environmental and economic criteria. The most significant drawback will be the
political effort required to convince those affected by the new dam that their economic,
social and cultural needs arising from displacement will be adequately satisfied before,
during and after the construction works.
It is also recommended that the investigations required for the detailed assessment of
the future wellfields and alternative surface water source at Melka Kunture commence
within the immediate future. The requirements of these investigations will be the major
focus of Task 9 (Terms of Reference) of this current study, along with any additional
studies to bring the Sibilu dam detailed design to construction stage.
4.4 Implementation schedule
As Addis Ababa and environs already suffer from serious water shortages it is strongly
recommended that the implementation of Sibilu dam and associated facilities commence
immediately. The following schedule has been prepared on the basis of alleviating
current shortfalls and having new sources ready to meet the 2020 and 2030 demands in
an orderly and timely manner.
Table 4.3 Outline schedule
Duration
No. Activity Start Finish Remark
(month)
1 Complete Sibilu re- 09.14 3 11.14 Update existing design
design and tender and tender dossier
documentation
2 Tender period, 12.14 6 06.15 Prequalification
evaluation and recommended
award concurrent with Activity
No.1
3 Construction and 07.15 48 06.19 In place to meet 2020
mitigation demands
4 Complete 06.14 12 05.15
investigations in new
wellfields
5 Bring new wellfields 06.15 12 05.16 Staged development of
into production wells and ancillary
transmission mains
6 Feasibility study for 09.14 12 08.15

new surface water

source
7 Details design and 12.15 15 03.16
tender dossier of
selected dam
8 Tender period, 04.16 6 10.16 Prequalification
evaluation and recommended
award concurrent with Activity
No.1
9 Construction and 01.17 48 12.20 In place to meet 2030
mitigation demands
4.5 Budget costs
The following staged budget expenditures have been prepared for the 3 scenarios
outlined above.
Table 4.4 Budget costs
Cost (USD x 106)

Description Remarks
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Sibilu dam &
ancillaries 246.493 128.369 0.000
Existing wellfields 25.000 25.000 25.000 Upgrading & completing.
Future wellfields 51.500 51.500 51.500 Based on 76 wells.
Alternative dam 1 0.000 200.000 500.000 1. Not required for Scenario 1
if new wellfields produce
200,000 m3/d.
2. Required for Scenario 2.
3. Two dams required for
Scenario 3.
TOTALS 323.43 404.869 576.50
Scenario 1, the recommended proposal, is the least costly and is the most likely to meet
the medium- (2020) and long-term requirements.
It should be noted that these proposals are designed to satisfy the 2030; however, this
horizon is within a relatively short time from (16 years) for securing supplies for a city
such as Addis Ababa. Consequently, it will be required to develop an alternative surface
water source immediately after 2030 to satisfy longer requirements.

APPENDIX A
APPENDIX B
APPENDIX C

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Addis Ababa Water and Sewerage Authority

Water and Sanitation Development and

CONSULTANCY SERVICE FOR

REPORT TASKS 456

CONSULTANCY SERVICE FOR REVIEWING THE STUDY OF WATER

REPORT TASKS 456

Nicholas O’Dwyer Ltd.,

PROJECT NO. 20517

Revision Reason for Revision Prepared by Reviewed by Approved by Issue Date

AAWSA Water & Sanitation Development i April 2014

AAWSA Water & Sanitation Development ii April 2014

AAWSA Water & Sanitation Development iii April 2014

AAWSA Water & Sanitation Development iv April 2014

Abbreviation Full title

no. Number (quantity)

EtC: Ethiopian Calendar

AAWSA Water & Sanitation Development v April 2014

1.0 INTRODUCTION & EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Task 5: Assess the additional water resources potential;

Task 6: Recommend alternative water resource development scenarios.

AAWSA Water & Sanitation Development 1 April 2014

1.1.1 Water III project

 Gerbi dam and ancillary structures,

1.2.1 Current Study

AAWSA Water & Sanitation Development 2 April 2014

 Task 1 – Evaluating existing water supply system production,

 Task 2 – Review of water source development activities,

 Task 3 – Checking operational efficiency (Non-revenue water),

 Task 5 – Assess the additional water resources potential,

 Task 6 – Recommend alternative water resource development scenarios,

 Task 7 - Ground water database development,

 Task 8 – Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) studies,

 Task 9a – Preparation of Terms of Reference, and

 Task 9b – Preparation of Preliminary Engineering Report.

AAWSA Water & Sanitation Development 3 April 2014

1.2 Executive Summary

2013 476,340 m3/d

2020 1,055,184 m3/d

2030 1,341,419 m3/d.

1.2.2 Assess the additional water resources potential

AAWSA Water & Sanitation Development 4 April 2014

New groundwater resources, either currently under development or identified as having

1.2.3 Recommend alternative water resource development scenarios

Budget costs are developed for each scenario, as follows:

 Scenario 1 – USD 323.430 million,

 Scenario 2 – USD 404.869 million, and

 Scenario 3 – USD 576.500 million.

It is recommended that Scenario 1 be adopted, this incorporates the full development of

AAWSA Water & Sanitation Development 5 April 2014

2.1 Population forecasting

2.1.1 Project boundary

AAWSA Water & Sanitation Development 6 April 2014

2.1.2 Available data

Table 2.1 Population distribution in Addis Ababa (2007 Census)

Nefas Silk-Lafto 316,283 75,779 4.2

Kolfe Keraniyo 428,895 94,135 4.6

Gulele 267,624 58,465 4.6

Lideta 201,713 44,946 4.5