India’s energy future could tip the scales of global climate

change, but the extreme weather is already here.

Grieving family members set fire to shrouded bodies on terrace

rooftops in the holy city of Varanasi as a tide of polluted water from
the Ganges rolled in around them. Flooded temples could only be
reached by boat, and orange Hindu flags were dampened with the
rising gray water that filled the city’s streets.

The Varanasi floods in August killed at least 40 people, and tens of

thousands more were displaced. Western media barely covered the
crisis; flooding can feel commonplace during India’s monsoon
season, and perhaps the number of dead didn’t turn many heads in
a country of 1.2 billion.

The larger story, however, almost certainly warrants attention, if not

a degree of panic: India’s changing climate.

To avert death and displacement in the years ahead, a rapidly

developing country dependent on coal is trying to slash its carbon
emissions by switching to solar power and other cleaner energy
sources. Whether India succeeds in this energy renaissance will
likely determine the future of its people–and to a certain degree, the
world.

Present and Future Danger 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, despite his unflattering record on

environmental issues, says he understands the immense threat
climate change poses—even if he accepts almost no blame for the
problem.

“Climate change is not of our making,” Modi said at the United

Nations’ 2015 climate change talks in Paris. “It is the result of global
warming that came from the prosperity and progress of an industrial
age powered by fossil fuel. But we in India face its consequences
today. We see it in the risks of our farmers, the changes in weather
patterns, and the intensity of natural disasters.”
Modi ratified the Paris agreement on Oct. 2—chosen to coincide
with Gandhi’s birthday. The pact seeks to limit the Earth’s warming
to below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit).

Unlike other developing nations, India did not agree to cap

emissions. Instead Modi pledged to bulk up on renewable power
and reduce emissions relative to GDP by roughly a third from
2005’s emissions by 2030.

India accounts for 4.5 percent of the world’s greenhouse gases, so

it plays a crucial role in combating climate change. And, because of
the risks of flooding and high temperatures, perhaps no country has
a greater incentive to slow global warming.

Arunabha Ghosh, chief executive officer of India’s Council on

Energy, Environment and Water, an environmental group,
estimated that natural disasters exacerbated by climate change
cost the Indian government roughly $30 billion (US dollars) between
2010 and 2015. That number will likely rise along with the global
temperature, according to his research.

Ghosh said that floods previously considered to be one-in-100-

years events could occur ten times a year by 2020–around the
time that India is set to become the world’s most populous country.

Floods already ravaged south India in November and December of

2015, killing over 500, and displacing 1.8 million more, according to
charity groups including the International Federation of Red Cross
and Red Crescent Societies.

The dangers go beyond floods. Record-breaking heat waves have

become a regular occurrence in India, killing thousands in each of
the last two summers. Drought has damaged crops, causing
starvation and a rash of farmer suicides. As global temperatures
continue to rise, hot-weather countries like India feel the limits of
habitability being stretched.
Another concern for India is its water supply. Much of its water
comes from glaciers melting in the Himalayas—a melt that has
been expedited in recent years by rising temperatures. Recently
scientists have voiced fears that India’s supply could suddenly
surge as a result of melting before drying up, creating massive
waves of displaced and starving people.

Aditya Satpute, formerly of the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, a

think tank that advised Modi’s government on climate change,
called India “one of the most vulnerable” countries.

“Flash flooding at Kedarnath was probably the first incident when

people really started to talk” about climate change, Satpute said.
That flood in north India killed roughly 5700 people.

“The government certainly cannot deny that flooding in Chennai or

floods in northern Bihar are more than just the normal course of
nature,” he said.

Can Solar Fuel A Growing Population?

An estimated 1.3 billion people in the world live without access to a

power grid, and about 300 million of them, or roughly a quarter, live
in underdeveloped areas in India, such as Uttar Pradesh or Bihar.
These are the same people who are most threatened by the natural
disasters and the ones that Modi has to consider when balancing
development with India’s environmental future.

Small solar devices spread renewable energy in energy-poor parts

of India: A solar lamp can illuminate a small hut to help a child
study, for example, and a solar-powered fan can help keep a baby
cool in Uttar Pradesh’s brutal May heat.
In India’s state of Odisha villagers trap fish using cone-shaped baskets and solar light.
Photo: RUBEN SALGADO ESCUDERO, National Geographic Creative

According to the US government’s Energy Information

Administration, 44 percent of India’s energy came from coal in 2013
with renewables making up only 3 percent. India will become
second to only China in terms of coal production and the largest
importer of coal before 2020, according to a report by the
International Energy Agency, a Paris-based intergovernmental
agency.

Coal produces a higher rate of emissions than other fuel sources.

Yet building solar panels is far more expensive than mining and
burning coal.

Modi has pledged to invest $100 billion in clean energy over the
next five years, and to source 40 percent of the country’s electricity
from renewable and low-carbon sources by 2030. India has also
helped establish the International Solar Alliance (ISA), a multi-
country organization of sun-rich countries focused on solar
technology. His most recent budget includes more than a doubling
of the government subsidies for solar power.

Whether these investments in solar will catch up with development

and reduce carbon emissions is a contentious issue.

Prior to ratifying the Paris agreement, Modi pledged to illuminate

18,000 energy poor villages by 2019 through a mix of fossil fuels
and renewable sources.

According to Debajit Palit, an associate director at TERI, a

nongovernmental organization specializing in development of
renewable energy in India, solar would likely only power 3,000 of
those villages, or roughly 15 percent. The other 85 percent would
come from the central grid, which is still mostly fueled by coal. That
means India will continue to develop its darkened rural pockets with
high-carbon energy at the same time it attempts to transition to
newer technologies.

Whether or not India can move its power grid to renewable sources
fast enough to slow the pace of its natural disasters is, quite
literally, a matter of life and death.