Demographic Analysis

Subject:
Regional Planning

Submitted To:
Prof. Dr. Ijaz Ahmad

Submitted By:
Muhammad Abdullah
(2017-CRP-02)

DEPARTMENT OF CITY AND REGIONAL PLANNING,

UNIVERSITY OF ENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGY,
LAHORE
Date: 03-05-2021
 Table of Contents
1.0. Introduction: ......................................................................................................................... 3
1.1. Objectives of the Study: ................................................................................................... 4
1.2. Limitations: ...................................................................................................................... 4
2.0. Methodology: ....................................................................................................................... 4
3.0. Selection Criteria: ................................................................................................................ 5
3.1. For 1981 Census: .............................................................................................................. 5
3.1.1. Small Settlements: .................................................................................................... 5
3.1.2. Medium Settlements: ................................................................................................ 5
3.1.3. Large Settlements: .................................................................................................... 5
3.2. For 1998 Census: .............................................................................................................. 5
3.2.1. Small Settlements: .................................................................................................... 5
3.2.2. Medium Settlements: ................................................................................................ 5
3.2.3. Large Settlements: .................................................................................................... 5
4.0. Identification of Settlements: ............................................................................................... 5
5.0. Comparison of Population with respect to time:.................................................................. 7
6.0. Change in Rank Size of Settlements: ................................................................................... 8
7.0. Calculation of Growth Rate: ................................................................................................ 9
8.0. Calculation of Population Density: .................................................................................... 10
9.0. Sex Distribution: ................................................................................................................ 12
10.0. Calculation of Sex Ratio: ............................................................................................... 13
11.0. Comparison of Literacy Ratio: ....................................................................................... 14
12.0. Comparison of Average Household Size: ...................................................................... 15
13.0. Conclusion:..................................................................................................................... 15
14.0. Bibliography:.................................................................................................................. 16

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 List of Tables

Table 1 Types of Settlement based on 1981 Population ................................................................. 6

Table 2 Types of Settlements based on 1998 Population ............................................................... 6
Table 3 Comparison of Population ................................................................................................. 7
Table 4 Rank of Settlements based on 1981 and 1998 Census Report ........................................... 8
Table 5 Calculated Growth Rate of Settlements ............................................................................. 9
Table 6 Population Density based on 1981 Census ...................................................................... 10
Table 7 Population Density based on 1998 Census ...................................................................... 11
Table 8 Sex Distribution of Settlements ....................................................................................... 12
Table 9 Sex Ratio of Settlements .................................................................................................. 13
Table 10 Literacy Ratios of Settlements ....................................................................................... 14
Table 11 Average Household Sizes of Settlements ...................................................................... 15

List of Figures

Figure 1 Demographic Considerations ........................................................................................... 3

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1.0. Introduction:
Demographic Analysis is the study of population based on certain factors such as age, sex and race
etc. It includes the things that allow us to measure the dimensions and dynamics of population. It
also involves other socio-economic factors like:
• Gender
• Employment
• Ethnicity
• Education
• Income
• Marriage rates
• Birth and death rates
A complete study of all these factors is done to perform an efficient demographic analysis. In this
assignment, our main focus is to perform a comprehensive demographic analysis of our case study
district using the above-mentioned factors. District census reports of District Sahiwal for the year
1981 and 1998 published by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics is being used to get information about
different factors.

Figure 1 Demographic Considerations

Source: (Wikiversity, 2011)

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 1.1. Objectives of the Study:
The main objectives of this assignment are:

To make a comprehensive Demographic Analysis of selected

district

To identify small,medium and large settlements in the district

To rank all settlements with respect to population for

different census

To make a comparative table showing comparison of

population with respect to time

To calculate growth rates, population density and sex distribution

etc.

1.2. Limitations:
Followings are the limitations which had to face while completing this assignment:
• A number of settlements were present in the census report but due to limitation of time, it
was not possible to study all the settlements for demographic analysis.
• Some demographic information like dependency ratio, migration rate and rural urban
distribution was available only for tehsils but not for settlements. So, these factors had to
exclude from the analysis.
• Due to COVID-19, only secondary data is being used to perform this demographic analysis.

2.0. Methodology:
First of all, small, medium and large settlements were identified on the basis of population from
the 1981 and 1998 district census report of Sahiwal. After identification of settlements, these were
ranked with respect to population of two different year census. Then, a comparative table is made
to show comparison of population with respect to time. In the end, growth rates, population
density, sex distribution, average household size, literacy ratio and male to female ratio is
identified.

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3.0. Selection Criteria:
Only those settlements are selected which are present in both 1981 and 1998 district census report
of Sahiwal. Three types of settlements are selected. These are small settlements, medium
settlements and large settlements. Selection criteria to separate settlements is different for both the
census. The base for selecting the settlement is its population.

3.1. For 1981 Census:

3.1.1. Small Settlements:
Those settlements which have population less than 5,000 are characterized as small settlements.
3.1.2. Medium Settlements:
Those settlements which have population between 5,000 and 15,000 are characterized as medium
settlements.
3.1.3. Large Settlements:
Those settlements which have population greater than 15,000 are characterized as large
settlements.

3.2. For 1998 Census:

3.2.1. Small Settlements:
Those settlements which have population less than 4,000 are characterized as small settlements.
3.2.2. Medium Settlements:
Those settlements which have population between 4,000 and 15,000 are characterized as medium
settlements.
3.2.3. Large Settlements:
Those settlements which have population greater than 15,000 are characterized as large
settlements.

4.0. Identification of Settlements:

On the basis of above-mentioned criteria, 15 settlements are identified using 1981 and 1998 district
census report of Sahiwal. Each type contains five settlements. These settlements are:
• Tibbi Qasim • Chak 117/9-L
• Murad Ke Kathia • Muhammad Pur
• Ara Tulla • Dad Fatiana
• Qutab Shahana • Kassowal
• Karial • Harappa
• Dadrah • Chichawatni (QH)
• Chak 104/9-L • MC Sahiwal
• Chak 114/9-L
In 1981, Chak 104/9-L was a medium settlement. But due to decrease in its population, it became
a small settlement in 1998. Similarly, in 1981, Karial was a small settlement. But due to increase
in its population, it became a medium settlement in 1998

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 Table 1 Types of Settlement based on 1981 Population

Sr. No. Name of Settlement Population (1981) Type

1. Tibbi Qasim 1,173 Small
2. Murad Ke Kathia 2,409 Small
3. Ara Tulla 1,414 Small
4. Qutab Shahana 763 Small
5. Karial 1,410 Small
6. Dadrah 6,575 Medium
7. Chak 104/9-L 8,833 Medium
8. Chak 114/9-L 9,051 Medium
9. Chak 117/9-L 6,351 Medium
10. Muhammad Pur 9,854 Medium
11. Dad Fatiana 176,400 Large
12. Kassowal 166,455 Large
13. Harappa 183,610 Large
14. Chichawatni (QH) 160,265 Large
15. MC Sahiwal 150,954 Large
Source: (Statistics, 1981)
Table 2 Types of Settlements based on 1998 Population

Sr. No. Name of Settlement Population (1998) Type

1. Tibbi Qasim 1,574 Small
2. Murad Ke Kathia 3,144 Small
3. Ara Tulla 1,346 Small
4. Qutab Shahana 1,038 Small
5. Chak 104/9-L 3,737 Small
6. Dadrah 6,947 Medium
7. Karial 4,256 Medium
8. Chak 114/9-L 7,222 Medium
9. Chak 117/9-L 4,263 Medium
10. Muhammad Pur 11,755 Medium
11. Dad Fatiana 92,570 Large
12. Kassowal 100,250 Large
13. Harappa 126,549 Large
14. Chichawatni (QH) 139,859 Large
15. MC Sahiwal 208,778 Large
Source: (Statistics, 1998)

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5.0. Comparison of Population with respect to time:
If we compare the population of all the settlements for different year census, it is observed that
there are certain settlements whose population is increased with the passage of time which is
obvious because this is a general trend that population increases with the passage of time. But there
are certain settlements as well who population is decreased with the passage of time. The reason
for this decrease in population is high migration rate of the people of that area. Population of that
area moved to nearby urban localities to enjoy better lifestyle and basic facilities of life. In these
settlements, all are rural settlements except MC Sahiwal. Following table shows the comparison
of population of settlements for two different year census report.
Table 3 Comparison of Population

Sr. No. Name of Settlement Population (1981) Population (1998)

1. Tibbi Qasim 1,173 1,574

2. Murad Ke Kathia 2,409 3,144

3. Ara Tulla 1,414 1,346

4. Qutab Shahana 763 1,038

5. Karial 1,410 4,256

6. Dadrah 6,575 6,947

7. Chak 104/9-L 8,833 3,737

8. Chak 114/9-L 9,051 7,222

9. Chak 117/9-L 6,351 4,263

10. Muhammad Pur 9,854 11,755

11. Dad Fatiana 176,400 92,570

12. Kassowal 166,455 100,250

13. Harappa 183,610 126,549

14. Chichawatni (QH) 160,265 139,859

15. MC Sahiwal 150,954 208,778

Source: (Statistics, 1981) & (Statistics, 1998)

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6.0. Change in Rank Size of Settlements:
If we compare the rank sizes of the settlements for year 1981 and 1998, it is observed that only
three settlements have hold up their ranks. While ranks of all the other settlements have changed.
MC Sahiwal has changed its rank from 5 to 1. Similarly, Karial has also improved its rank from
13 to 10. Rank of Harappa has decreased from 1 to 3 while that of Dad Fatiana from 2 to 5. Rest
of the settlements have observed a slight change in their ranks. The settlements have rank
according to their population from top to bottom. The settlement having rank 1 has the highest
population among all the settlements while settlement having rank 15 has the lowest population
among all the settlements.
Table 4 Rank of Settlements based on 1981 and 1998 Census Report

Year 1981 Year 1998

Rank Name of Settlement Rank Name of Settlement

1. Harappa 1. MC Sahiwal

2. Dad Fatiana 2. Chichawatni (QH)

3. Kassowal 3. Harappa

4. Chichawatni (QH) 4. Kassowal

5. MC Sahiwal 5. Dad Fatiana

6. Muhammad Pur 6. Muhammad Pur

7. Chak 114/9-L 7. Chak 114/9-L

8. Chak 104/9-L 8. Dadrah
9. Dadrah 9. Chak 117/9-L
10. Chak 117/9-L 10. Karial
11. Murad Ke Kathia 11. Chak 104/9-L
12. Ara Tulla 12. Murad Ke Kathia
13. Karial 13. Tibbi Qasim
14. Tibbi Qasim 14. Ara Tulla
15. Qutab Shahana 15. Qutab Shahana
Source: (Self Prepared by comparing population of Settlements)

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7.0. Calculation of Growth Rate:
It is observed that both the trends positive and negative are seen. Population of some of the
settlements have increased. While population of some of the settlements have decreased. Growth
rate is positive if there is increase in population while it is negative if there is decrease in
population. Negative growth rate is observed because population of the concerned settlement has
moved to nearby urban localities. To find the growth rate of all the settlements, we can use
following formula:
𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 − 𝑃𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 100
𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒 = ×
𝑃𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑛
Where,
Present Population = Population of 1998
Past Population = Population of 1981
n = Difference in Years = 1998 – 1981 = 17
Table 5 Calculated Growth Rate of Settlements

Sr. Name of Population Population

Growth Rate
No. Settlement (1981) (1998)
1. Tibbi Qasim 1,173 1,574 2.01%
2. Murad Ke Kathia 2,409 3,144 1.79%
3. Ara Tulla 1,414 1,346 -0.28%
4. Qutab Shahana 763 1,038 2.12%
5. Karial 1,410 4,256 11.87%
6. Dadrah 6,575 6,947 0.33%
7. Chak 104/9-L 8,833 3,737 -3.39%
8. Chak 114/9-L 9,051 7,222 -1.19%
9. Chak 117/9-L 6,351 4,263 -1.93%
10. Muhammad Pur 9,854 11,755 1.13%
11. Dad Fatiana 176,400 92,570 -2.79%
12. Kassowal 166,455 100,250 -2.33%
13. Harappa 183,610 126,549 -1.83%
14. Chichawatni (QH) 160,265 139,859 -0.74%
15. MC Sahiwal 150,954 208,778 1.63%
Source: (Self Calculated by using formula)

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8.0. Calculation of Population Density:
Population density is calculated by dividing the population of settlement with the area of
settlement. Formula of population density is:
𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑆𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡
𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦 =
𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑆𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡
According to 1998 census, population density of Sahiwal district is 575.8 persons per square
kilometer or 2.33 persons per acre. The main reason for this low population density per acre is that
the major portion of this district is rural. Majority of the people live in rural areas and majority of
the land is agricultural.
Table 6 Population Density based on 1981 Population

Population
Area
Sr. Name of Population Density
No. Settlement (1981) Per Per Sq.
Acre Sq. Km.
Acre Km.
1. Tibbi Qasim 1,434 5.803084 1,173 0.817992 202.1339
2. Murad Ke Kathia 3,457 13.98972 2,409 0.696847 172.1979
3. Ara Tulla 1,654 6.693375 1,414 0.854897 211.2537

4. Qutab Shahana 661 2.674922 763 1.154312 285.242

5. Karial 1,119 4.528348 1,410 1.260054 311.3718
6. Dadrah 3,090 12.50455 6,575 2.127832 525.8085

7. Chak 104/9-L 2,668 10.79681 8,833 3.31072 818.1119

8. Chak 114/9-L 1,733 7.013071 9,051 5.222735 1290.59
9. Chak 117/9-L 2,940 11.89754 6,351 2.160204 533.808

10. Muhammad Pur 7,209 29.17324 9,854 1.366902 337.7753

11. Dad Fatiana 57,078 230.9822 176,400 3.090508 763.6954
12. Kassowal 49,422 200 166,455 3.368034 832.275

13. Harappa 62,858 254.3725 183,610 2.921028 721.8153

14. Chichawatni (QH) 66,935 270.8713 160,265 2.394338 591.6648
15. MC Sahiwal 89,699 362.9922 150,954 1.682895 415.8602
Source: (Self Calculated by using formula)

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 Table 7 Population Density based on 1998 Population

Population
Area
Sr. Name of Population Density
No. Settlement (1998)
Per Per Sq.
Acre Sq. Km.
Acre Km.
1. Tibbi Qasim 1,434 5.803084 1,574 1.097629 271.2351

2. Murad Ke Kathia 3,457 13.98972 3,144 0.909459 224.7364

3. Ara Tulla 1,654 6.693375 1,346 0.813785 201.0944

4. Qutab Shahana 661 2.674922 1,038 1.570348 388.0487

5. Karial 1,119 4.528348 4,256 3.803396 939.8572

6. Dadrah 3,090 12.50455 6,947 2.24822 555.5577

7. Chak 104/9-L 2,668 10.79681 3,737 1.400675 346.1207

8. Chak 114/9-L 1,733 7.013071 7,222 4.16734 1029.791

9. Chak 117/9-L 2,940 11.89754 4,263 1.45 358.3095

10. Muhammad Pur 7,209 29.17324 11,755 1.630601 402.9377

11. Dad Fatiana 57,078 230.9822 92,570 1.621816 400.7669

12. Kassowal 49,422 200 100,250 2.028449 501.25

13. Harappa 62,858 254.3725 126,549 2.013252 497.4947

14. Chichawatni (QH) 66,935 270.8713 139,859 2.089475 516.3301

15. MC Sahiwal 89,699 362.9922 208,778 2.32754 575.1584

Source: (Self Calculated by using formula)

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9.0. Sex Distribution:
Following table shows the distribution of males and females of the settlements. Number of males
are more than number of females in each settlement.
Table 8 Sex Distribution of Settlements

Sr. Name of Population (1981) Population (1998)

No. Settlement Males Females Males Females
1. Tibbi Qasim 594 579 812 762

2. Murad Ke Kathia 1,270 1,139 1,635 1,509

3. Ara Tulla 733 681 706 640

4. Qutab Shahana 406 357 562 476

5. Karial 743 667 2,211 2,045

6. Dadrah 3,492 3,083 3,695 3,252

7. Chak 104/9-L 4,715 4,188 1,960 1,777

8. Chak 114/9-L 4,720 4,281 3,793 3,429

9. Chak 117/9-L 3,417 2,934 2,239 2,024

10. Muhammad Pur 5,220 4,634 6,128 5,627

11. Dad Fatiana 92,133 84,267 47,570 45,000

12. Kassowal 87,469 78,986 51,443 48,807

13. Harappa 96,902 86,708 65,759 60,790

14. Chichawatni (QH) 83,848 76,437 71,892 67,967

15. MC Sahiwal 79,616 71,338 108,992 99,786

Source: (Statistics, 1981) & (Statistics, 1998)

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10.0. Calculation of Sex Ratio:
Sex ratio is calculated by dividing the number of males over number of females. Formula to
calculate sex ratio is:

𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑀𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠
𝑆𝑒𝑥 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 =
𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠
Following table shows the sex ratio of all the selected settlements for year 1981 and 1998. It is
observed that males are more in number than females, so they dominate in ratio.
Table 9 Sex Ratio of Settlements

Sr. No. Name of Settlement Sex Ratio in 1981 Sex Ratio in 1998

1. Tibbi Qasim 1.02: 1 1.06: 1

2. Murad Ke Kathia 1.11: 1 1.08: 1

3. Ara Tulla 1.07: 1 1.10: 1

4. Qutab Shahana 1.13: 1 1.18: 1

5. Karial 1.11: 1 1.08: 1

6. Dadrah 1.13: 1 1.13: 1

7. Chak 104/9-L 1.12: 1 1.10: 1

8. Chak 114/9-L 1.10: 1 1.10: 1

9. Chak 117/9-L 1.16: 1 1.10: 1

10. Muhammad Pur 1.12: 1 1.08: 1

11. Dad Fatiana 1.09: 1 1.05: 1

12. Kassowal 1.10: 1 1.05: 1

13. Harappa 1.11: 1 1.08: 1

14. Chichawatni (QH) 1.09: 1 1.05: 1

15. MC Sahiwal 1.11: 1 1.09: 1

Source: (Self Calculated by using formula)

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11.0. Comparison of Literacy Ratio:
Following table shows the literacy ratio of settlements for the year 1981 and 1998. Literacy ratio
is observed for the people whose ages are greater than 10 year. It is observed that MC Sahiwal has
highest literacy ratio in both year census. While Ara Tulla has lowest literacy ratio in 1981 and
Murad Ke Kathia has lowest literacy ratio in 1998. An overall increase is observed in the literacy
ratio of the settlements with the passage of time.
Table 10 Literacy Ratios of Settlements

Literacy Ratio in Literacy Ratio in

Sr. No. Name of Settlement
1981 (%) 1998 (%)

1. Tibbi Qasim 9.6 17.3

2. Murad Ke Kathia 8.3 16.6

3. Ara Tulla 2.1 18.2

4. Qutab Shahana 19.8 27.1

5. Karial 8.5 33.2

6. Dadrah 10.9 33.7

7. Chak 104/9-L 11.1 30.2

8. Chak 114/9-L 9.4 28.0

9. Chak 117/9-L 9.7 31.8

10. Muhammad Pur 10.4 25.7

11. Dad Fatiana 19.6 37.3

12. Kassowal 18.1 39.0

13. Harappa 16.1 39.5

14. Chichawatni (QH) 21.3 45.4

15. MC Sahiwal 47.6 69.1

Source: (Statistics, 1981) & (Statistics, 1998)

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12.0. Comparison of Average Household Size:
Following table shows the average household size of settlements for the year 1981 and 1998. It is
observed that MC Sahiwal has highest average household size in both year census. Chak 104/9-L
has lowest average household size in 1981 while Chak 114/9-L and Chak 117/9-L have lowest
average household size in 1998. An overall increase is observed in the average household size of
the settlements with the passage of time.
Table 11 Average Household Sizes of Settlements

Sr. No. Name of Settlement Average Household Average Household

Size in 1981 Size in 1998
1. Tibbi Qasim 6.0 6.8
2. Murad Ke Kathia 5.4 6.5
3. Ara Tulla 5.9 6.2
4. Qutab Shahana 5.4 6.6
5. Karial 5.6 6.6
6. Dadrah 5.8 6.6
7. Chak 104/9-L 5.2 6.1
8. Chak 114/9-L 5.7 5.7
9. Chak 117/9-L 5.5 5.7
10. Muhammad Pur 5.6 6.3
11. Dad Fatiana 6.5 6.9
12. Kassowal 6.3 7.0
13. Harappa 6.0 6.8
14. Chichawatni (QH) 6.7 7.0
15. MC Sahiwal 7.0 7.0
Source: (Statistics, 1981) & (Statistics, 1998)

13.0. Conclusion:
A comprehensive demographic analysis is done with some limitations. Both increasing and
decreasing trends have been observed for population with the passage of time. Similarly, positive
and negative growth rates are also seen. Literacy ratio is increase with the passage of time which
is a good sign. Average household size of the settlements is also increased. Unfortunately, due to
lack of secondary data, migration rate of the settlements could not found.

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14.0. Bibliography:

Statistics, 2019. s.l.: s.n.

Statistics, P. B. o., 1981. District Census Report of Sahiwal, Sahiwal: s.n.
Statistics, P. B. o., 1998. District Census Report of Sahiwal, Sahiwal: s.n.
Wikiversity, 2011. Wikiversity. [Online]
Available at:
https://en.wikiversity.org/wiki/Instructional_design/Learner_analysis/what_when_why/demogra
phics

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