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Research Article
A Model for Hourly Solar Radiation Data Generation from
Daily Solar Radiation Data Using a Generalized Regression
Artificial Neural Network
Copyright © 2015 T. Khatib and W. Elmenreich. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution
License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This paper presents a model for predicting hourly solar radiation data using daily solar radiation averages. The proposed model
is a generalized regression artificial neural network. This model has three inputs, namely, mean daily solar radiation, hour angle,
and sunset hour angle. The output layer has one node which is mean hourly solar radiation. The training and development of the
proposed model are done using MATLAB and 43800 records of hourly global solar radiation. The results show that the proposed
model has better prediction accuracy compared to some empirical and statistical models. Two error statistics are used in this
research to evaluate the proposed model, namely, mean absolute percentage error and root mean square error. These values for the
proposed model are 11.8% and −3.1%, respectively. Finally, the proposed model shows better ability in overcoming the sophistic
nature of the solar radiation data.
where AST is the apparent or true solar time and it is given by the hourly horizontal global radiation for various Indian
the daily apparent motion of the true, or observed, sun. AST is stations as follows:
based on the apparent solar day, which is the interval between
two successive returns of the sun to the local meridian. 𝐺ℎ (𝜋/24) (cos 𝜔 − cos 𝜔𝑠 )
=
Apparent solar time can be calculated as follows: 𝐺𝐷 sin 𝜔𝑠 − (2𝜋𝜔𝑠 /360) cos 𝜔𝑠 (11)
min − 0.008 sin 3 (𝜔 − 0.65) .
AST = LST + EoT + (4 ) [(LSMT − LOD)] , (3)
degree
In addition, Jain in [7] suggested calculating hourly solar
where LST is the local standard time, LOD is the longitude, radiation as follows:
LSMT is the local standard meridian time, and EoT is the
equation of time. 𝐺ℎ = 𝑟𝑡 ⋅ 𝐺𝐷, (12)
The local standard meridian (LSMT) is a reference merid-
where 𝑟𝑡 is a Gaussian function to fit the recorded data. The
ian used for a particular time zone and is similar to the prime
authors of [7] established the following relation for global
meridian, used for Greenwich Mean Time. LSMT is given by
irradiation:
the following:
1 (AST − 12)2
LSMT = 15∘ ∗ Time zone in GMT. (4) 𝑟AST = exp [− ], (13)
𝜎√2𝜋 2𝜎2
In the meanwhile, the equation of time (EoT) is the difference
where 𝑟AST is the ratio of hourly to daily global solar radiation
between apparent and mean solar times, both taken at a given
and 𝜎 is a factor that is defined by
longitude at the same real instant of time. EoT is given by the
following: 1
𝜎= . (14)
EoT = 9.87 sin (2𝐵) − 7.53 cos (𝐵) − 1.5 sin (𝐵) , (5) 𝑟AST(AST=12) √2𝜋
where 𝐵 is a factor and it can be calculated by Later, Baig et al. in [8] have proposed a model that is based on
Jain’s model in [7]. Baig et al. modified Jain’s model to better
360∘ fit the recorded data during the start and the end periods of a
𝐵= (𝑁 − 81) , (6) day. In this model, 𝑟AST is estimated by the following:
365
where 𝑁 is the day number and it is defined as the number of 1 (AST − 12)2
𝑟AST = (exp [− ]
days elapsed in a given year up to a particular date (e.g., 2nd 𝜎√2𝜋 2𝜎2
February corresponds to 33). (15)
The sunset hour angle can be calculated using the follow- (AST − 12)
+ cos [180 ]) .
ing: (𝑆𝑜 − 1)
𝜔𝑠𝑠,𝑠𝑟 = cos−1 (− tan 𝜙 tan 𝛿) , (7) Another model was proposed by Kaplanis in [9]. The authors
assumed that daily solar radiation profile can be described as
where 𝜙 is the latitude and 𝛿 is the angle of declination. The follows:
angle of declination is the angle between the Earth-sun vector
2𝜋𝑡
and the equatorial plane and it is calculated as follows: 𝐼 = 𝑎 + 𝑏 ⋅ cos ( ), (16)
24
360 (284 + 𝑁)
𝛿 = 23.45 sin [ ]. (8) where 𝑎 and 𝑏 are parameters to be determined for any site
365 and for any day. The followed methodology was represented
On the other hand, Collares-Pereira and Rabel verified the by integrating (16) over 𝑡, from sunrise (𝑡𝑠𝑟 ) to sunset (𝑡𝑠𝑠 ) as
previous model in [5] and propose the following for calculat- below:
ing mean hourly solar radiation: 𝑡𝑠𝑠
24𝑏 2𝜋𝑡𝑠𝑠
∫ 𝐺ℎ 𝑑𝑡 = 2𝑎 (𝑡𝑠𝑟 − 12) + sin ( ). (17)
𝐺ℎ (𝜋/24) (cos 𝜔 − cos 𝜔𝑠 ) 𝑡𝑠𝑟 𝜋 24
= (𝑎 + 𝑏 cos 𝜔) , (9)
𝐺𝐷 sin 𝜔𝑠 − (2𝜋𝜔𝑠 /360) cos 𝜔𝑠 Later, Kaplanis has proposed two improvements for his model
in [10]. In [10], a statistical model for calculating hourly
where the coefficients 𝑎 and 𝑏 are defined as follows: solar radiation in terms of the variation of the daily solar
𝑎 = 0.409 + 0.5016 sin (𝜔𝑠 − 60) , attention as well as air mass is done. The proposed statistical
(10) model is based on three constants which need to be calculated
𝑏 = 0.6609 − 0.4767 sin (𝜔𝑠 − 60) . based on actual data. Similarly in [10], a stochastic prediction
model for hourly solar radiation is presented. The model
In addition to that, H. P. Garg and S. N. Garg checked the calculates hourly solar radiation in terms of the average global
adequacy of the Liu-Jordan correlation in [6] to estimate solar radiation and the standard deviation of the hourly solar
4 International Journal of Photoenergy
radiation from the average daily solar radiation. The model networks, Adaline networks, Heteroassociative networks,
is developed based on historical data. Here, also the models Recurrent Networks, and Hybrid Networks [15].
presented in [10] are only valid for the case study. Here, also ANNs have recently been used to predict the amount
the models presented in [10] are location dependent. of solar radiation based on meteorological variables such as
In addition to that, in [11], the authors presented a corre- sunshine ratio, temperature, and humidity [1]. However, up to
lation between 𝐺ℎ and 𝐺𝐷 according to Figure 1 as follows: now, no one has used ANNs to find the correlation between
mean hourly solar radiation and mean daily solar radiation.
𝐺ℎ
= 𝑎 + 𝑏𝑡 + 𝑐𝑡2 , (18) Therefore, in this paper, a generalized regression artificial
𝐺𝐷 neural network (GRNN) is proposed for this purpose. The
GRNN is the most recommended type of ANN for solar radi-
where 𝑎, 𝑏, and 𝑐 are coefficients that can be determined by ation prediction according to Khatib et al. in [16]. The gener-
any curve fitting tool. However, the drawback of this model alized regression neural network (GRNN) is a probabilistic
is that it is a location dependent model whereas such a type based network. This network makes classification where the
of models is devoted to a specific region. This is because the target variable is definite, and GRNNs make regression where
coefficients 𝑎, 𝑏, and 𝑐 are calculated based on a specific solar the target variable is continuous. GRNN falls into the cate-
radiation profile. gory of PNNs. This neural network, like other PNNs, needs
In addition, in [12], statistical model for calculating only a fraction of the training samples an MLP would need.
hourly global solar radiation on horizontal surface was The additional knowledge needed to obtain the fit in a satisfy-
developed. This model represents the hourly solar radiation ing way is relatively small and can be done without additional
as a function of extraterrestrial solar radiation as well as a sky input by a user. This makes GRNNs a useful tool for per-
transmission function. The proposed sky transmission func- forming prediction and comparison of system performance
tion is presented as two transmission functions indicating the in practice. The probability density function used in GRNNs
daily and the hourly variation. At this point, the hourly and is the normal distribution. Each training sample, 𝑋𝑗 , is used
the daily transmission variation functions are estimated as as the mean of a normal distribution function given by the
statistical relations in terms of day number, hour of the day, following:
and location latitude and longitude based on ground mea-
surements of environmental parameters for a specific loca- ∑𝑛𝑡=1 𝑌𝑖 exp (−𝐷𝑖 2 /2𝜎2 )
tion. After all, the inputs of the model were the hour of day, 𝑦 (𝑥) =
day number, optimized sky transmission function, solar con- ∑𝑛𝑡=1 exp (−𝐷𝑖 2 /2𝜎2 ) (19)
stant, and location coordination. The main drawback of this 𝑇
work is that the relations proposed for the daily and hourly 𝐷𝑖 2 = (𝑋 − 𝑋𝑖 ) ⋅ (𝑋 − 𝑋𝑖 ) .
transmission functions are location dependent. Moreover, the
𝐷𝑖 is the distance between the training sample and the point
utilized extraterrestrial solar radiation data are based on satel-
of prediction; it is used as a measure of how well each
lite measurements which might not be accurate. More statis-
training sample represents the position of prediction, 𝑋. If
tical methods were provided. In [13], a model for generating
hourly solar radiation as a function of the clearness index the distance, 𝐷𝑖 , between the training sample and the point of
is proposed. The development of the model is based on an prediction is small, exp(−𝐷𝑖 2 /2𝜎2 ) becomes larger. For 𝐷𝑖 =
assumption that the relation between clearness index values 0, exp(−𝐷𝑖 2 /2𝜎2 ) becomes 1.0 and the point of evaluation is
and solar radiation can be described by a Gaussian function. represented best by this training sample. A larger distance to
In the meanwhile, in [14], the authors proposed a trigono- all the other training samples causes the term exp(−𝐷𝑖 2 /2𝜎2 )
metrical function for predicting daily solar radiation values to become smaller and therefore the contribution of the other
from monthly solar radiation values. training samples to the prediction is relatively small. The term
𝑌𝑖 ∗ exp(−𝐷𝑖 2 /2𝜎2 ) for the 𝑖th training sample is the largest
2.2. Proposed Generalized Regression Artificial Neural Network and contributes strongly to the prediction. The standard
Model. Artificial neural networks, ANNs, are nonalgorith- deviation or smoothness parameter, 𝑠, is subjected to a search.
mic and intensely parallel information processing systems. For a large smoothness parameter, the possible representation
They learn the relationship between input and output vari- of the point of evaluation by the training sample is possible for
ables by mastering previously recorded data. An ANN usually a wider range of 𝑋. For a small smoothness parameter, the
consists of parallel elemental units called neurons. Neurons
representation is limited to a narrow range of 𝑋.
are connected by a large number of weighted links which
pass signals or information. A neuron receives and combines GRNNs consist of input, hidden, and output layers. The
inputs and then generates the final results in a nonlinear input layer has one neuron for each predictor variable. The
operation. The term ANN usually refers to a Multilayer Per- input neurons standardize the range of values by subtracting
ceptron (MLP) Network; however, there are many other types the median and dividing by the interquartile range. The input
of neural networks, including Probabilistic Neural Networks neurons then feed the values to each of the neurons in the
(PNNs), General Regression Neural Networks (GRNNs), hidden layer. In the hidden layer, there is one neuron for each
Radial Basis Function (RBF) Networks, Cascade Correla- case in the training data set. The neuron stores the values of
tion, Functional Link Networks, Kohonen networks, Gram- the predictor variables for each case, along with the target
Charlier networks, Learning Vector Quantization, Hebb value. When presented with a vector of input values from
International Journal of Photoenergy 5
Hour angle
the input layer, a hidden neuron computes the Euclidean square error (RMSE). MAPE is an indicator of accuracy.
distance of the test case from the neuron’s center point MAPE usually expresses accuracy as a percentage and is
and then applies the RBF kernel function using the sigma defined by the following formula:
value. The resulting value is passed to the neurons in the
pattern layer. However, the pattern (summation) layer has 1 𝑛 𝐼 − 𝐼𝑝
MAPE = ∑ , (20)
two neurons: one is the denominator summation unit and 𝑛 𝑡=1 𝐼
the other is the numerator summation unit. The denominator
summation unit adds the weights of the values coming from where 𝐼 is the measured value and 𝐼𝑝 is the predicted value.
each of the hidden neurons. The numerator summation unit The resultant of this calculation is summed for every fitted or
adds the weights of the values multiplied by the target value forecasted point in time and divided again by the number of
for each hidden neuron. The decision layer divides the value fitted points, 𝑛. This formula gives a percentage error, so one
accumulated in the numerator summation unit by the value can compare the error of fitted time series that differ in level.
in the denominator summation unit and uses the result as the In addition, prediction models were evaluated using
predicted target value [15]. RMSE. RMSE provides information about the short-term
Based on the previous models ((1), (9), and (11)), it is clear performance of the models and is a measure of the variation
that the hourly solar radiation value is a function of parame- of the predicted values around the measured data. RMSE
ters such as mean daily solar radiation, hour angle, and sun- indicates the scattering of data around linear lines. Moreover,
set/sunrise hour angle. Based on this, the GRNN illustrated in RMSE shows the efficiency of the developed network in
Figure 2 is proposed for estimating mean hourly solar radia- predicting future individual values. A large positive RMSE
tion. The input layer of the network has three inputs: mean implies a large deviation in the predicted value from the
daily solar radiation, hour angle, sunset hour angle. Mean- measured value. RMSE can be calculated as follows:
while, the output layer has one node which is mean hourly
solar radiation. 1 𝑛 2
With regard to the number of neurons in the hidden layer, RMSE = √ ∑ (𝐼𝑝 𝑖 − 𝐼𝑖 ) , (21)
𝑛 𝑖=1
there is no way to determine the optimal number of hidden
neurons without training several networks and estimating the where 𝐼𝑝 𝑖 is the predicted value, 𝐼𝑖 is the measured value, and
generalization error of each. A low number of hidden neurons
𝑛 is the number of observations [1].
cause high training and generalization error due to underfit-
ting and high statistical bias, but a large number of hidden
2.3.1. Sensitivity Analysis. For any prediction model that
neurons cause high generalization error due to overfitting and
deals with stochastic data such as solar radiation, the sensi-
high variance [17]. There are some rules of thumb for choos-
tivity analysis is important for many reasons such as testing
ing the number of the hidden nodes. Blum claims in [18] that
the robustness of the results in the presence of uncertainty.
the number of neurons in the hidden layer ought to be some-
Moreover, such an analysis can provide better understanding
where between the input layer size and the output layer size.
of the relation between the model’s output(s) and input(s).
Swingler in [19] and Berry and Linoff in [20] claim that the
This understating may lead to a model enhancement by iden-
hidden layer will never require more than twice the number
tifying the model’s input(s) which case significant uncertainty
of the inputs. In addition, Boger and Guterman suggest in
in the output. According to [22–25], the sensitivity analysis
[21] that the number of hidden nodes should be 70–90% of
can be defined as the study of how the uncertainty in the
the number of input nodes. Additionally, Caudill and Butler
output of a mathematical model or system can be apportioned
recommend in [15] that the number of hidden nodes equals
to different sources of uncertainty in its inputs. One of the
the number of inputs plus the number of outputs multiplied
popular methods is automated differentiation method, where
by (2/3). Based on these recommendations, the number of
the sensitivity parameters are found by simply taking the
neurons in the hidden layer of our model should be between
derivatives of the output with respect to the input.
2 and 4. In this research, we used 4 hidden nodes.
In this research, the hourly solar radiation can be
described as a function of daily solar radiation and sunrise or
2.3. Model Evaluation Criteria. To evaluate the proposed sunset hour angle and hour as follows:
GRNN model and the other models, two statistics errors are
used: mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean 𝐺ℎ = 𝑓 (𝐺𝐷, 𝜔𝑠𝑠,𝑠𝑟 , 𝜔) . (22)
6 International Journal of Photoenergy
Measured value
𝑟ℎ = = 𝑓 (𝜔𝑠𝑠,𝑠𝑟 , 𝜔) . (23)
𝐺𝐷 600
400
Assume that we are calculating the sensitivity of species 𝑟ℎ
with respect to every parameter in the model in (23). Thus, 200
it is required to calculate the time-dependent derivatives as
follows: 0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
𝜕𝑟ℎ 𝜕𝑟ℎ Predicted value
, . (24)
𝜕𝜔𝑠𝑠,𝑠𝑟 𝜕𝜔 Figure 3: Correlation between generated and measured values using
the proposed model.
There are different methods to estimate the value of each
deferential part. One of these methods is Taylor method. This
method states that Taylor approximation of 𝑦 around a given 1000 A
500
point (𝑥𝑜 , 𝑦𝑜 )—which stands for the first derivative—can be
0
given by the following: 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
rd
780 790 800 810 820 830 840 850 860 0.6
Time (hour) 0.4
0.2
Measured data
0
GRNN model
8 10 12 14 16 18
Mean hourly solar
radiation (W/m2 )
1260
1270
1280
1290
1300
1310
1320
1330
1340
1350
Figure 6: Development of two location dependent models.
Time (hour)
Measured data
GRNN model 700
600
Gh /GD
Liu-Jordan model Proposed model 1.5
1
Figure 8: Comparison between the proposed model and other
0.5
models.
0
−0.5
−60 −40 −20 0 20 40 60 80
are sometimes narrower that the actual one which caused Hour angle
underestimations in the afternoon. As for the proposed
model, it can be seen that it is more accurate than the other Figure 9: 𝜔 versus 𝑟ℎ for Liu-Jordan model.
two models. However, the three models are not able to predict
the solar radiation accurately in the cloudy days as compared
to their ability in the clear sky days.
Based on the results of the whole testing year, the gener- by the MAPE and RMSE. This implies that the proposed
ated synthetic solar radiation data profiles by the three models model is more powerful in predicting hourly solar radiation
seem to be shifted from the actual solar radiation profile in according to the MAPE value. Moreover, it has the ability to
some days. This is due to the difference between the calculated predict future data based on the RMSE value.
hour angle and the hour angle at which the solar radiation is As for the sensitivity analysis, in this research, the
measured. Therefore, the prediction accuracy of these models proposed model as well as Liu-Jordan and Collares-Pereira
can be significantly improved by adding a shifting coefficient models is tested in terms of sensitivity by plotting scatter plots
to the original models depending on the climate zone. This for each model with respect to hour angle factor (𝜔 versus
conclusion has been previously found by the authors of [4] 𝑟ℎ ). Then, the correlation value for each data set is provided.
whereas such a practice (adding a shifting coefficient) has Figures 9–11 show the scatter plots of the three models as
been proposed to the original Liu-Jordan model [4]. The described in (23).
authors of [4] discussed the validity of Liu-Jordan model in From Figures 9–11, it can be seen that the proposed model
predicating hourly solar radiation utilizing actual data for dif- is more efficient in considering the uncertainty of the solar
ferent sites with close latitude values. The authors concluded radiation for this case. In Figure 9, the values of 𝑟ℎ factor are
that, for hourly diffuse solar radiation prediction, the model more concentrated around specific points with some deviated
presented by Erdinc and Uzunoglu in [3] performed accu- extreme points. These extreme points are the unexpected
rately as the ratio of hourly diffuse to daily diffuse radiation values of solar radiation due to some reasons such as clouds
is insensitive to the shade ring correction. On the other hand, and dust particles. Moreover, there is no symmetric nature
this model showed some inaccuracy when predicting hourly of these values which means that the uncertainty problem of
global solar radiation because of the increase of beam radia- such data is relatively overcome by the proposed model. On
tion with incidence angle caused by the atmospheric attenua- the other hand, both Liu-Jordan and Collares-Pereira models
tion. Therefore, the authors of [4] decided to combine the new resulted in symmetric behavior of the data regardless of any
data they have used with corresponding points from [3] in external conditions which caused prediction inaccuracy in
which each data base is weighted according to the number of some cases. Table 2 shows the 𝑅-square values of each model.
years of observation. This fitting process resulted in correla- From Table 2, it is also clear that the proposed model
tion term added to the model presented by [3]. The proposed exceeds the other empirical models. In general, the advantage
model by [4] was tested using data for countries with of the proposed model as compared to the empirical models
different latitudes and found relatively accurate. However, is that it is a machine with the ability of learning and handling
the authors suggested that latitude independence is a good huge data sets with stochastic nature. As a fact, heuristic
correlation practice for improving the prediction accuracy of techniques such as GRNN are more efficient in handling
the model presented by Erdinc and Uzunoglu in [3]. stochastic data subject to a prior concrete training. However,
Table 1 shows an evaluation of the three models using the empirical models exceed the proposed model in case of
MAPE and RMSE. It is clear that the proposed model has the having short historical data that is not enough to train the
best accuracy prediction whereas it exceeds the other models proposed model.
International Journal of Photoenergy 9
𝑅-square values
Scatter plot Fitting function
Liu-Jordan Collares-Pereira GRNN model
𝜔 versus 𝐺ℎ /𝐺𝐷 0.78 0.75 0.90 Polynomial/quadratic
−0.5
−60 −40 −20 0 20 40 60 80
From Figures 12(a), 12(b), 13(a), 13(b), 14(a), and 14(b), it
Figure 10: 𝜔 versus 𝑟ℎ for Collares-Pereira model.
is clear that the proposed model did not perform well when it
is trained using only 84 records (7 solar days). However, the
model was able to predict a number of days accurately accord-
2 ing to Figure 12(a). These results are seconded by Figure 12(b)
1.5 where the correlation value between the generated and the
1 measured values is very low due to the high rate of model
Gh /GD
600 R2 = 0.001354
Measured values
800
500
600
400
300 400
200
200
100
0 0
0 50 100 150 200 250 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Time (sample number) Predicted values
Figure 12: (a) Proposed model performance considering small sizes of training data set. (b) Correlation between generated and measured
values using training data set size of 7 solar days.
600 R2 = 0.002263
800
Measured values
500
600
400
300 400
200
200
100
0 0
0 50 100 150 200 250 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Time (sample number) Predicted values
Figure 13: (a) Proposed model performance considering small sizes of training data set. (b) Correlation between generated and measured
values using training data set size of 29 solar days.
600 R2 = 0.006583
Measured values
800
500
600
400
300 400
200
200
100
0 0
0 50 100 150 200 250 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Time (sample number) Predicted values
Figure 14: (a) Proposed model performance considering small sizes of training data set. (b) Correlation between generated and measured
values using training data set size of 57 solar days.
International Journal of Photoenergy 11
% Start
clc
clear
close all
% %———————Input Data——————
fileName='Site.xlsx';
sheetName='hourly Solar radiation data';
L=; % add a latitude value
LOD=; % add a longitude value
% T means testing data
SRi=xlsread(fileName, sheetName, 'C3:C4358'); % hourly solar radiation
Wi=xlsread(fileName, sheetName, 'D3:D4358'); % hour angle
Wsi=xlsread(fileName, sheetName, 'E3:E4358'); % sun set angle
GD=xlsread(fileName, sheetName, 'G3:G4358'); % daily solar radiation
DN=xlsread(fileName, sheetName, 'F3:F4358'); % day number (day & month)
h=xlsread(fileName, sheetName, 'I3:I4358'); % hour
SRi T=xlsread(fileName, sheetName, 'C4359:C8546');
Wi T=xlsread(fileName, sheetName, 'D4359:D8546');
Wsi T=xlsread(fileName, sheetName, 'E4359:E8546');
GD T=xlsread(fileName, sheetName, 'G4359:G8546');
DN T=xlsread(fileName, sheetName, 'F4359:F8546');
h T=xlsread(fileName, sheetName, 'I4359:I8546');
SR=SRi∗1000;
SR T=SRi T∗1000;
W=(Wi T∗(pi/180));
Ws=(abs(Wsi T∗(pi/180)));
%=============Proposed GRNN Model=================
inputs=[L LOD Wi, Wsi, GD DN h];
I=inputs';
targets=SR;
T=targets';
net=newgrnn(I,T);
test=[L LOD Wi T, Wsi T, GD T DN T h T];
Test=test';
x predicted=sim(net,Test);
X P=x predicted';
%============Liu and Jordan Model==================
R LiuJordan=((((pi)/24)∗(cos(W)-cos(Ws)))./(sin(Ws)-((pi∗Ws)/180).∗cos(Ws)));
SR LiuJordan=R LiuJordan.∗GD T
%============Collares-Pereira and Rabel Model======
a=0.409+(0.5016∗sin(Ws-60));
b=0.6609+(0.4767∗sin(Ws-60));
R Collares=((a + (b.∗cos(W))).∗((((pi/24))∗(cos(W)-cos(Ws))))./(sin(Ws)-((pi∗Ws)/180).∗cos(Ws)));
SR Collares=R Collares.∗GD T;
%=================Plot data===========================
plot (SR T)
xlim([0 100])
hold on
plot (SR LiuJordan, 'k')
xlim([0 100])
hold on
plot (SR Collares, 'g')
xlim([0 35])
hold on
plot (X P, 'red')
xlim([0 100])
%————Models evaluation————————
Pseudocode 1: Continued.
12 International Journal of Photoenergy
n=length(X P);
E3 Hour=SR T-X P;
GRNN MAPE=abs(E3 Hour./SR T);
GRNN meanMAPE1=sum(GRNN MAPE)/n;
GRNN meanMAPE=GRNN meanMAPE1∗100;
GRNN RMSE=sqrt(sum((X P-SR T).∧ 2/n))
GRNN MBE=sum(X P-SR T)/n
SUM=(sum(X P)./n);
liner RMSE Percentage=(GRNN RMSE/SUM)∗100
liner MBE Percentage=(GRNN MBE/SUM)∗100
% End
Pseudocode 1
parameters. Moreover, in case of training the proposed model EoT: Equation of time
well, the model will be able to handle the uncertainty issue in 𝐺𝐷: Mean daily solar radiation
solar radiation much better than the empirical and statistical 𝐺ℎ : Mean hourly solar radiation
models. GRNN: Generalized artificial neural network
𝜙: The latitude
4. Conclusion LLP: Loss of load probability
LOD: Longitude
In this research, a generalized regression artificial neural LSMT: Local standard meridian time
network based model was presented for predicting hourly LST: Local standard time
solar radiation using daily solar radiation. This model has MAPE: Mean absolute percentage error
three inputs, namely, mean daily solar radiation, hour angle, MLP: Multilayer Perceptron Network
and sunset hour angle. The output layer has one node, which PNNs: Probabilistic Neural Networks
is the generated mean hourly solar radiation. Five years of PV: Photovoltaic
data for hourly solar radiation were used to train and develop RBF: Radial Basis Function Networks
the model running under MATLAB. The results showed RMSE: Root mean square error
that the proposed model has better prediction accuracy 𝑟𝑡 : The ratio of hourly to daily global solar radiation
as compared to existing empirical and statistical models 𝑡𝑠𝑟 : Sunrise time
especially in dealing with special location dependent cases. 𝑡𝑠𝑠 : Sunset time
The average prediction accuracy of the proposed model is 𝜔: Hour angle
about 11% with 𝑅-square value of 0.96. Furthermore, the 𝜔𝑠𝑠,𝑠𝑟 : Sunset/sunrise hour angle.
proposed model showed superiority in terms of prediction
sensitivity as compared to some empirical models. However,
the results showed that the proposed model needed a concrete Conflict of Interests
prior training in order to show prediction superiority. It is
also concluded that such a model can be developed with The authors hereby confirm that there is no conflict of
relatively accepted prediction accuracy (24%) using about interests in the paper with any third part.
two months’ data with an hourly step. Finally, the proposed
model can be used in predicting the performance of solar Acknowledgments
energy systems such as photovoltaic system and solar water
heater. Moreover, it can be used to generate long term data This work is supported by Lakeside Labs, Klagenfurt, Aus-
in order to be used in optimal sizing and planning of solar tria, and funded by the European Regional Development
energy systems. Fund (ERDF) and the Carinthian Economic Promotion
Fund (KWF) under Grant 20214|22935|34445 (Project Smart
Appendix Microgrid).
See Pseudocode 1.
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