Tsunami Warnings and Prevention

Tag: tsunami warnings and prevention

A tsunami cannot be prevented or precisely predicted - even if the right magnitude of an earthquake occurs in the right location.
Geologists, Oceanographers and Seismologist analyse each earthquake and based upon many factors may or may not issue a tsunami
warning. However, there are some warning signs of an impending tsunami, and there are many systems being developed and in use to
reduce the damage from tsunami. One of the most important systems that is used and constantly monitored are bottom pressure sensors.
These are anchored and attached to buoys. Sensors on the equipment constantly monitor the pressure of the overlying water column - this
can be deduced by the simple calculation of:

where

P = the overlying pressure in Newtons per metre square,

ρ = the density of the seawater= 1.1 x 10 3 kg/m3,
g = the acceleration due to gravity= 9.8 m/s 2 and
h = the height of the water column in metres.

Hence for a water column of 5,000 m depth the overlying pressure is equal to

or about 5.7 Million tonnes per metre square.

In instances where the leading edge of the tsunami wave is the trough, the sea will recede from the coast half of the wave's period
before the wave's arrival. If the slope of the coastal seabed is shallow, this recession can exceed many hundreds of meters. People
unaware of the danger may remain at or near the shore out of curiosity, or for collecting fish from the exposed seabed. During the Indian
Ocean tsunami of 26th December 2004, the sea withdrew and many people then went onto the exposed sea bed to investigate.
Pictures taken show people on the normally submerged areas with the advancing wave in the background. Most people who were on
the beach were unable to escape to high ground and died.

Regions with a high risk of tsunami may use tsunami warning systems to detect tsunami and warn the general population before the wave
reaches land. On the west coast of the United States, which is prone to Pacific Ocean tsunami, warning signs advise people of evacuation
routes.

The Pacific Tsunami Warning System is based in Honolulu. It monitors all sesimic activity that occurs anywhere within the Pacific.
Based up the magnitude and other information a tsunami warning may be issued. It is important to note that the subduction zones around
the Pacific are seismically active, but not all earthquakes generate tsunami and for this reason computers are used as a tool to assist in
analysing the risk of tsunami generation of each and every earthquake that occurs in the Pacific Ocean and the adjoining land masses.

As a direct result of the Indian Ocean tsunami, a re-appraisal of the tsunami threat of all coastal areas is being undertaken by national
governments and the United Nations Disaster Mitigation Committee. A tsunami warning system is currently being installed in the Indian
Ocean.

Computer models can predict tsunami arrival - observations have shown that predicted arrival times are usually within minutes of the
predicted time. Bottom pressure sensors are able to relay information in real time and based upon the readings and other information
about the seismic event that triggered it and the shape of the seafloor (bathymetry) and coastal land (topography), it is possible to
estimate the amplitude and therefore the surge height, of the approaching tsunami. All the countries that border the Pacific Ocean
collaborate in the Tsunami Warning System and most regularly practice evacuation and other procedures to prepare people for the
inevitable tsunami. In Japan such preparation is a mandatory requirement of government, local authorities, emergency services and the
population.

Some zoologists hypothesise that animals may have an ability to sense subsonic Rayleigh waves from an earthquake or a tsunami. Some
animals seem to have the ability to detect natural phenomena and if correct, careful observation and monitoring could possibly provide
advance warning of earthquakes, tsunami etc. However, the evidence is controversial and has not been proven scientifically. There are
some unsubstantiated claims that animals before the Lisbon quake were restless and moved away from low lying areas to higher ground.
Yet many other animals in the same areas drowned. The phenomenon was also noted in Sri Lanka in the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake.
The following two references whilst relevant, are media and not scientific. It is possible that certain animals (e.g., elephants) may have
heard the sounds of the tsunami as it approached the coast. The elephants reaction was to move away from the approaching noise -
inland. Some humans, on the other hand, went to the shore to investigate and many drowned as a result.

It is not possible to prevent a tsunami. However, in some tsunami-prone countries some measures have been taken to reduce the damage
caused on shore. Japan has implemented an extensive programme of building tsunami walls of up to 4.5 m (13.5 ft) high in front of
populated coastal areas. Other localities have built floodgates and channels to redirect the water from incoming tsunami. However, their
effectiveness has been questioned, as tsunami often surge higher than the barriers. For instance, the Okushiri, Hokkaidō tsunami which
struck Okushiri Island of Hokkaidō within two to five minutes of the earthquake on July 12, 1993 created waves as much as 30 m (100
ft) tall - as high as a 10-story building. The port town of Aonae was completely surrounded by a tsunami wall, but the waves washed
right over the wall and destroyed all the wood-framed structures in the area. The wall may have succeeded in slowing down and
moderating the height of the tsunami, but it did not prevent major destruction and loss of life.

The effects of a tsunami may be mitigated by natural factors such as tree cover on the shoreline. Some locations in the path of the 2004
Indian Ocean tsunami escaped almost unscathed as a result of the tsunami's energy being absorbed by trees such as coconut palms and
mangroves. In one striking example, the village of Naluvedapathy in India's Tamil Nadu region suffered minimal damage and few deaths
as the wave broke up on a forest of 80,244 trees planted along the shoreline in 2002 in a bid to enter the Guinness Book of
Records. Environmentalists have suggested tree planting along stretches of seacoast which are prone to tsunami risks. It would take
some years for the trees to grow to a useful size, but such plantations could offer a much cheaper and longer-lasting means of tsunami
mitigation than the construction of artificial barriers.

Early Prevention
Initial Proposals

Early prevention of tsunamis should be divided into two categories: preventing

earthquakes and preventing
landslides. These two are the
primary causes of tsunamis
and hence deserve the most
attention as priority targets.

Prevention of earthquakes
would rely on the deliberate
generation of minor quakes in
order to release the elastic
tension energy stored in the
tectonic plates under stress.
One way to generate quakes is to have something similar to flail tanks in World
War II used to clear mines. Adaptations would have to be made but these machines
would go into deep water and proceed to flail the ground along the fault lines. This
would occur at a regular interval and result in minor and harmless tremors. This
might be a very expensive option as developing these underwater machines would
likely be costly

Another
way to
generate
quakes
would
to use
ultra
low
sound
emitters
at
resonant

frequencies. Once a line of the emitters are in place along the fault line, they can
produce resonance that would disrupt and cause ruptures. These emitters should
have the ability to relocate or they will get destroyed in the actual plate movements
while at the same time they need to be close to be effective.

Yet another way to generate quakes would be use of explosives. Only explosives
that would be practical to use would be tactical nuclear weapons. These are cheap
and more practical compared to equivalent amounts of TNT. Furthermore, they are
quite abundant in the remnants of the Cold War arsenals. The unfortunate side
effect is the tremendous amount of nuclear fall out that would occur. Regular
nuking would utterly devastate ecosystems and have unforeseeable repercussions.

Why they would not work

However, these ideas are generally impractical.

It turns out that flail tanks and sound emitters
would likely have too little energy to trigger a quake. According to the US
Geological Survey, a thermonuclear test named "Faultless" ironically produced a
new fault rupture on Jan. 19, 19681[1]. However, even then, the wavefield generated
was only 20-30% earthquake like. The largest thermonuclear test by the United
States was the Cannikin test with a 5 megaton yield bomb. In this, it registered 6.9
on the Richter scale. In studies done, it appears that quake generated as a result of
underground thermonuclear explosions typically have around 1/10 the strength of
the nuclear blast. Thus, to generate roughly 5.3 magnitude quake, you need a 5
megaton bomb. To prevent a magnitude 8 earthquake by premature triggering, we
need roughly 32,000 magnitude 5 earthquakes2[2]. This means to prevent a quake
capable of generating a reasonably big tsunami would require around 30,000 5
megaton bombs. For the quake that caused the December 2004 tsunami, we would
need roughly 1,000,000 5 megaton bombs. This is simply unrealistic costwise and
environmentally.

Prevention of landslides is important as not all tsunamis are generated by

earthquakes. The first option will be to provide concrete braces and other
reinforcement structures for sections of the seafloor deemed vulnerable to slides.
This would be able to prevent a significant amount of sliding. However, it’s
impractical and costly to do this for large areas. Only high risk areas and important
protection locations like major ports and cities should have this nearby. There is
also need for novel structural materials which would render it practical to build
such structures as a replacement time of less than ten years is likely to be
unacceptable.

The second option is to have small artificially triggered underwater landslides.

These can be triggered with explosives or with small mobile underwater dozers.
This is more practical than triggering quakes in that it can be smaller and more
localized. Use of power that only nuclear weapons can provide is likely
unnecessary.

With landslides, cost of reinforced concrete would be prohibitive. One can only do
this for important areas like near city harbors. However, tsunami waves that hit can
come from across the globe. Money on reinforcing underwater topology to prevent
slides is likely better utilized for physical dissipation in form of seawalls and
mangroves.

Rebuilding and prevention in tsunami-hit areas

2
Source: Science

24 October 2006 | EN | 中文

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caused many human casualties and widespread destruction

US Geological Survey

Protecting against the risk of shifting ground and replanting mangrove forests are some of the tasks ahead for areas
in Asia hit by the 2004 tsunami and earthquake in March 2005.

In a series of three articles in Science, Richard Stone describes how ecosystems are being restored and measures
put in place to ensure that the next earthquake will not have such devastating consequences.

Subsidence and uplift caused by the 2005 earthquake profoundly changed the landscape of Nias Island off Sumatra's
west coast, according to research by scientists from the Caltech-Indonesian Institute of Sciences.

The team warns that the coastline around Padang, Sumatra, would subside by tens of centimetres if another major
earthquake hit the area. This, they say, is likely to happen within the next few decades.

The risk of subsidence complicates development of an adequate evacuation plan for Padang. One possibility is to
build tsunami shelters every 100 metres along the coast, but this is only a viable option if they can withstand a wave
as well as shifting ground.

Meanwhile a US$62 million initiative to replant mangroves, sand dunes and sea-grass beds, called Mangroves for the
Future (MMF), will be unveiled at a tsunami donors meeting on 31 October.

MMF will also provide an updated assessment of mangrove distribution in the area and restore ecosystems in the 12
nations affected by the tsunami.

Protecting against the risk of shifting ground and replanting mangrove forests are some
of the tasks ahead for areas in Asia hit by the 2004 tsunami and earthquake in March
2005.

In a series of three articles in Science, an International weekly science journal, Richard

Stone describes how ecosystems are being restored and measures put in place to
ensure that the next earthquake will not have such devastating consequences.

Subsidence and uplift caused by the 2005 earthquake profoundly changed the
landscape of Nias Island off Sumatra's west coast, according to research by scientists
from the Caltech-Indonesian Institute of Sciences. The team warns that the coastline
around Padang, Sumatra, would subside by tens of centimetres if another major
earthquake hit the area. This, they say, is likely to happen within the next few decades.
 Scientists from the
Caltech-Indonesian
Institute of Science
warn that the coastline
around Padang,
Sumatra would subside
by tens of centimetres if
another major
earthquake hit the area.
The risk of subsidence complicates development of an adequate evacuation plan for
Padang. One possibility is to build tsunami shelters every 100 metres along the coast,
but this is only a viable option if they can withstand a wave as well as shifting ground.

Meanwhile a US$62 million initiative to replant mangroves, sand dunes and sea-grass
beds, called Mangroves for the Future (MMF), will be unveiled at a tsunami donors
meeting on 31 October.

MMF will also provide an updated assessment of mangrove distribution in the area and
restore ecosystems in the 12 nations affected by the tsunami.