Week #5: Global atmospheric change

GEOG1003
Week Date Coursework Topics Lectures

1 01-Sep Introduction Introduction to global environmental issues

#1 released
2 08-Sep Climate Change Introduction to climate change
(Due 22-Sep)

3 15-Sep Climate Change Causes of climate change

4 22-Sep Climate Change Climates of the past

5 29-Sep Climate Change Global atmospheric change
Progress Report
6 06-Oct Climate Change Consequences of climate change
(Due 20-Oct)
7 13-Oct NO CLASS! Reading Week
#2 released
8 20-Oct Water resources crisis Water resources and pollution
(Due 3-Nov)
9 27-Oct Overpopulation Overpopulation and urbanization

10 03-Nov Air/land pollution Air pollution, acid deposition, land pollution

Earthquake, Tsunami, Thunderstorm and

11 10-Nov Natural hazards
Tornado
12 17-Nov Energy crisis Energy sources and crisis
Final Project
13 24-Nov Course review Course review
(Due 3-Dec)
14 01-Dec NO CLASS! Revision Period
Paleoclimate: Climate in the past
(paleo = Greek word for “ancient”)
Paleoclimatology: The study of past climate prior to the
period of instrumental measurements.
 Informs about long-term (multi-centennial and longer) climate
variability, against which the recent changes can be compared to
assess whether or not they are unusual.
 Documents transitions between different climate states, including
abrupt events.
 Provides quantitative information on the Earth system response to
external forcings.
 Facilitates understanding of Earth system feedbacks on time scales
longer than a few centuries.
 Types of Paleo Data
Tree
rings Lake sediments Loess

Pollen
Ice cores
Cave deposits
Corals

Historical

Ocean
sediments
Proxy Records of Climate

• Uses of proxy records of

climate depend on both
- time span of record
- resolution of record
Part I: Earth’s Climate System
Albedo –
Fraction of total radiation reflected by an object (surface).
 Annual Average Albedo

Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge UP

Heat capacity –
the amount of heat required to change the temperature of
a substance by a given amount.

• Water has a high heat capacity –

can take in or lose much heat
without changing temperature
 Earth’s Climate System
• Components of the Earth’s climate system

• Albedo
• Heat capacity
• Circulation

Five major components: air (atmosphere), water (hydrosphere),

ice/glacier (cryosphere), vegetation (biosphere), and land (lithosphere).
Major processes: energy cycle, water cycle, carbon cycle, …
 Earth’s Climate System

• Changes in Earth’s climate system are driven by

cause and effect.
• Buzzwords of climate scientists – forcing and
response:
– Forcing – factors that drive or cause changes
– Response – the climate change that occurs
 Climate: Forcing and Response

Changes due to
volcanism Changes due to
human impact
Input Machine Output
 Response Time
• Time it takes for the climate system to react to a
change in forcing
• Response time = amount of time it takes to get
50% of the way toward equilibrium
• Response time depends on “materials” or
“components”.
Response Times of Various Climate System Components
 Climate Feedbacks
A feedback is a mechanism whereby an initial change in a process
will tend to either reinforce the change (positive feedback)

or weaken the change (negative feedback).

Positive Feedback: Example #1
(Water Vapor Feedback)
Positive Feedback: Example #2
(Ice-Albedo Feedback)

warming

Decreased
snow and ice;
less reflectivity

More solar
radiation absorbed
at surface
 Negative Feedback: An Example
(Cloud Radiative Feedback)

Initial Change
Climate
warming

Uncertain
Reduced
Warming Uncertain

Increased
clouds

Greater
reflected
radiation
 Climate: Forcing, Response and Feedback

feedback feedback

Changes due to
volcanism Changes due to
human impact
Input Machine Output
Part II: Variability of the Earth’s
Climate System
 Climate phenomena and their variability

• ENSO
• Asian monsoon
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation & Northern
Annular Mode
• Southern Annular Mode
• North Atlantic meridional overturning
• etc……
El Niño-Southern Oscillation
(ENSO)
What is El Niño?

• Unusual warming of sea surface

waters in the east-central tropical
Pacific Ocean.
• Peaks around Christmas season,
“Christ Child”, “The Boy”.
• EN events occur about every 2-7
years.

• La Niña: The opposite phase of EN.

“The Girl”.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvmeUStFvz8
Normal conditions in the Pacific Ocean
• Strong winds from east to west over the Pacific
• Warm water piled up in western Pacific
• Sea surface temperature warm in west and cold in east
• Rainy over SE Asia, dry over S. America.
• Upwelling off South American coast
La Niña conditions (ENSO cool phase;
opposite of El Niño)
 El Niño conditions (ENSO warm phase)

• Weak or even reversed winds from west to east over Pacific

• Water no longer piled up in western Pacific
• Warm water pool in west (30C) moves east
• Rainy over central Pacific, flooding in Peru; Drought in Asia
• Upwelling off South American weakens or stops
SST and SST anomaly

Anomaly (a = without, nomos = law) maps show the difference

from normal conditions
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly maps are useful for
identifying unusually warm or cool water:
Positive SST anomaly values = water warmer than normal
Negative SST anomaly values = water cooler than normal
 SST anomalies and Precipitation

• There is a close link El Niño

between tropical SSTs
and precipitation
• Winds blow down
pressure gradient
toward warmest
waters
La Niña
• Convergence over/near
warmer waters
• Subsidence in cooler
regions
How to measure El Niño?
• Measured by Niño indices:
Niño3.4: SSTa within [5S-5N, 90W-150W]
• A warming of at least 0.5 degC averaged
over the east-central tropical Pacific.
• Lasts nine months to two years.
• El Niño: the ocean part: Warm phase of
ENSO: El Niño - Southern Oscillation

La Niña

• Southern Oscillation: the atmospheric

part; sea level pressure anomalies
Neutral • Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The SOI is
computed from fluctuations in the surface air
pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin,
Australia.

El Niño
How to measure El Niño?
• Measured by Niño index:
Niño3.4: SSTa within [5S-5N, 90W-150W]
• A warming of at least 0.5 degC averaged
over the east-central tropical Pacific.
• Lasts nine months to two years.
• El Niño: the ocean part: Warm phase of
ENSO: El Niño - Southern Oscillation

La Niña

• Southern Oscillation: the atmospheric

part; sea level pressure anomalies
Neutral • Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The SOI is
computed from fluctuations in the surface air
pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin,
Australia.
• EN and SO are always coupled: Warm oceanic
El Niño phase accompanies high sea level pressure in the
western Pacific.
 Evolution of El Niño events

• Develops in late spring/

early summer, peaks
around Christmas season,
and decay in the spring
of the next year.
(e.g., 1997-98)

Developing year Decay year

SSTA Animation: 1997-1998
 Why bother caring El Niño?

• “Affects almost every person on the planet”

• “The heat engine for extreme weather events”

• E.g., 1997-98 El Niño:

Globally: 110 million affected, 24,000 death. >$100 billion economic loss.
China: Yangtze River flooding，14 million homeless, ~4,000 death, $26 billion loss.
 Global El Niño Impacts

• Impacts are
generally more
extensive during
the NH winter.
• Impacts persist
into summer due
to the delayed
response.
 Global La Niña Impacts

Mid-latitude
impacts generally
occur during the
winter season.
 How El Niño will change under global warming?

• 1/3 climate models say “more extreme”

• 1/3 say “no change”

• 1/3 say “less extreme”

(IPCC, 2007)

Instrumental records are too short to capture the full behavior of El Nino
海面溫度
 Ancient trees suggest
El Niño More Extreme Under Global Warming

Jinbao Li
Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences
Photo credit:
The University of Hong Kong Harold Davis
How to improve our understanding of El Niño?

"The Past Is The Key To The Future"

Tree-Rings: History book written by Mother Nature

Credit: Daniel Griffin

 Data: 2222 tree-ring chronologies from pan-Pacific regions

Credit: Ricardo Villalba

Polylepis tarapacana (S. America)

Tropical tree-rings are critical in this

study, b/c El Niño effects are most
significant in the tropics.

Credit: Paul Krusic Tectona grandis (Indonesia)

 Major Achievement I:
700-year El Niño record of unprecedented accuracy

El Niño

La Niña
 Major Achievement II:
El Nino was unusually active in the late 20 century,
suggestive of a response to global warming
 Tropical volcanic eruptions

Pinatobu (1991, Philippines)

El Chichón (1982, Mexico)

Credit: USGS
 Major Achievement III:
Large tropical volcanic eruptions could cause worldwide
extreme weather through its effects on El Nino
 Summary
• El Nino was first found unusually active in the late 20th
century compared to the past 700 years, suggestive of a
response to global warming.

• If this trend of increasing El Nino activity continues,

we expect to see more extreme weather such as
floods and droughts around the globe.

• Large tropical volcanic eruptions could cause worldwide

extreme weather through its effects on El Nino.

• Such new knowledge can help improve climate models in forecasting.

 Implications for Hong Kong

• More frequent and severe droughts and floods in the Pearl

River Delta region (including HK).

• More variable in timing and magnitude of tropical storms

hitting HK.
• Challenge the city’s infrastructure (e.g. MTR) and long-term
water recourses management.

Ming Yuen St. (N. Point) Hau Wong Rd (Kowloon)

during the 1966 flood. during the 2008 flood.

Credit: South China Morning Post Credit: Kin Cheung

• Climate modelling evidence for a doubling in the occurrences of
extreme El Niño (e.g., 1997-98) in the future in response to
greenhouse warming.

Cai et al., 2014

2015-16 was a big El Niño year

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
2015-16 was a big El Niño year
ENSO: Current Status and Predictions
El Nino visits Letterman to answer some questions

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtewAWJihYo
The Monsoon System
 What is a monsoon?
• Arabic word “mausim” means “season”
• The seasonal reversal of wind direction associated with
large continents, especially Asia.
In summer, the wind blows from ocean to land
In winter, it blows from land to ocean
 What is a monsoon?
• Strictly, a system where the winds and precipitation
reverse seasonally (summer rain, winter dry)
• There are three major monsoon systems:
Asian-Australian, African, Americas
• Each monsoon system has its own characteristics but
all are characterized by summer rains and seasonal
wind reversals.
 What is a monsoon?
• Monsoon is a climatological feature covering roughly
half the tropics (1/4 of the global surface).
• Sufficiently reproducible to host the most successful
agricultural system (5000 years of success).
• Host 65% of the world’s population.
• Small changes in year-to-year monsoon climate can be
catastrophic.
 Asian monsoon variability and
the rise and fall of Chinese dynasties
• The Asian monsoon was generally strong during the Medieval Warm Period,
especially during the first several decades of the Northern Song Dynasty, a period of
increased rice cultivation and dramatic population increase.
• Weak during the Little Ice Age, as well as during the final decades of the Tang, Yuan,
and Ming Dynasties, all times that were characterized by popular unrest.

Zhang et al. (2008, Science)

Cave deposits
Asian monsoon failure and
the collapse of Angkor civilization
Southeast Asia circa the 900s

Angkor: ~AD 802 - 1431

Buckley et al. 2010
Asian monsoon failure and
the great India/China famine (1876-78)
India:
• The famine ultimately covered an area of 257,000 square miles
(670,000 km2) and caused distress to a population totaling 58,500,000.
• The death toll is estimated between 5.5 million to 29 million.
China:
• Northern Chinese Famine of 1876–1879, usually referred to
as Dīngwùqíhuāng (丁戊奇荒).
• 9.5 to 13 million people are estimated to have died in the famine.
Reason:
• Actually caused by El Nino (but none knew)
 Physical Ingredients for a Monsoon
• Land-Sea differences: 1) land and water have
different heating capacity, 2) water can store
more heat because it is a fluid and can mix heat
down for future release.
 Asian-Australian Monsoon

Outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR): an indication of cloudiness and hence rainfall.

 Physical Ingredients for a Monsoon
• Land-Sea differences: land and water have
different heating capacities & water can store
more heat because it is a fluid and can mix heat
down for future release
• Planetary rotation: introduces swirl and much
stronger winds
 Coriolis force (CF): A Key Factor
Affecting Air/Water Circulation

• Caused by the rotation of Earth.

All free-moving objects deflect to the right (left) of their path of
motion in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere.
 Coriolis force (CF): A Key Factor
Affecting Air/Water Circulation

• Caused by the rotation of Earth.

• Maximum at the poles, no CF at the equator.
• Proportional to speed (strong wind leads to strong deflection).
• Does NOT generate wind; rather it modifies airflow.
(a) lower-troposphere
(i) non-rotating (ii) rotating

low pressure PG
30•N p
0
F
C
PG PG
15•N F p
1
F C

PG
0 p2
F
PG
PG F
C
15•S p3
F PG

C F
30  S p
4
high pressure

PG: Pressure Gradient; F: Friction; C: Coriolis.

Asian-Australian Monsoon
 Physical Ingredients for a Monsoon
• Land-Sea differences: land and water have
different heating capacities & water can store
more heat because it is a fluid and can mix heat
down for future release
• Planetary rotation: introduces swirl and much
stronger winds
• Moisture: water vapor, collected over oceans
through evaporation, condenses over land and
marginal seas releasing vast quantities of heat
 Physical Ingredients for a Monsoon
• Land-Sea differences: land and water have
different heating capacities & water can store
more heat because it is a fluid and can mix heat
down for future release
• Planetary rotation: introduces swirl and much
stronger winds
• Moisture: water vapor, collected over oceans
through evaporation, condenses over land and
marginal seas releasing vast quantities of heat
• Orography: acts as elevated heat source which
intensifies flow & also ducts flow.
 Time Scales of Monsoon Variability

• Monsoon Weather: Weather events such as monsoon lows and

depressions, tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and etc. Produce short-
lived local flooding (or drought), erosion, high winds and etc.

• Intraseasonal Variability: “Envelopes” or clusters of weather

events leading to 20-40 day droughts or flood periods. Most
difficult to forecast but perhaps the most important of all time
scales for economic and agricultural sectors.

• Interannual variability: Variations on the annual cycle of the

monsoon producing anomalously wet or dry years. Generally
influenced by sea-surface temperature variations associated with
ENSO or inherent variability in the Indian Ocean.

• Decadal/centennial variability: Variations on the decadal and

longer time scales. Generally influenced by changes in solar
radiation, Earth’s Orbits, tropical SSTs, etc…
Indian monsoon and ENSO: A weakening relationship

• Typically a negative relationship between Indian monsoon

and ENSO.
• But this relationship weakened since the 1970s.
• Reasons still unclear.

Source: http://www.tropmet.res.in/
Asian monsoon region

EASM
SASM

South Asia East Asia

 Weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon
under global warming
Weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon and superposed inter-
annual and inter-decadal variability.

Long-term variation of the East Asia summer monsoon index for 1870-2003. Positive
(negative) values denote stronger (weaker) summer monsoon than normal.
Weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon
under global warming

Long-term variability of the Indian monsoon, based on all India

precipitation.

(Goswami,2005)
Weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon
under global warming

Long-term variability of the Indian monsoon, based on all India

precipitation.
Why is monsoon weakening with global warming?
A question yet to be answered.

Possible reasons:
• More aerosols over Asia
• Rapid Indian Ocean warming
• Shift in ITCZ
• etc…

(Goswami,2005)