Npv Analysis

Periods 0 1 2 3 4
Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
(1) New Product Sal 0 138,000,000.00 $184,000,000 $161,000,000 $2,760,000,000
(2)Cannibalization ($35,000,000) ($15,000,000)
(3) net sales 173,000,000.00 199,000,000.00 161,000,000.00 2,760,000,000.00
(4) variable costs (%) 95,150,000.00 109,450,000.00 88,550,000.00 1,518,000,000.00
(5) S&A (given; $7m/year) $7,000,000 $7,000,000 $7,000,000 $7,000,000
(6) endorsement cost $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000
(7) Adv & promo 25000000 15000000 10000000 30000000
operation expenses 129,150,000.00 133,450,000.00 107,550,000.00 1,557,000,000.00

(8)EBITDA 43,850,000.00 65,550,000.00 53,450,000.00 1,203,000,000.00

(9) Dep Expenses 112,350,000.00 112,350,000.00 112,350,000.00 112,350,000.00

(10) EBIT (68,500,000.00) (46,800,000.00) (58,900,000.00) 1,090,650,000.00
(11) Tax expense (27,400,000.00) (18,720,000.00) (23,560,000.00) 436,260,000.00
(12) Net op profit after tax (41,100,000.00) (28,080,000.00) (35,340,000.00) 654,390,000.00
(13) Dep Add Back 71,250,000.00 84,270,000.00 77,010,000.00 766,740,000.00
(14) -Capital Exp 170,000,000.00 170,000,000.00 170,000,000.00 170,000,000.00
(15) -∆NWC 18,597,500.00 8,597,500.00 (1,402,500.00) (11,402,500.00) (21,402,500.00)
(16) Free Cash Flow #13-#14-#15 (107,347,500.00) (84,327,500.00) (81,587,500.00) 618,142,500.00
 5 6
2017 2018
$207,000,000 $103,500,000 N.P. sales = unites forecast * price
Retail =$190
207,000,000.00 103,500,000.00 N.P. sales = $190 * (1- 40%)=$115
113,850,000.00 56,925,000.00 $115 55%
$7,000,000 $7,000,000 operation
$2,000,000 $2,000,000 al cost
25000000 15000000
147,850,000.00 80,925,000.00

59,150,000.00 22,575,000.00

112,350,000.00 112,350,000.00
(53,200,000.00) (89,775,000.00)
(21,280,000.00) (35,910,000.00)
(31,920,000.00) (53,865,000.00)
80,430,000.00 58,485,000.00
170,000,000.00 170,000,000.00 salvage tax(cash inflow in vast period)
(31,402,500.00) (41,402,500.00) nwc=current
Revenue goes10,000,000.00
up, ∆NWC increases;
nwc=(8%*net
Revenue
sales)+(25%*#4)-(20%*#4),
goes down, ∆NWC decreases
∆NWc P1
(58,167,500.00) (70,112,500.00)
+(25%*#4)-(20%*#4), ∆NWc P1=p1$-I/o, ∆NWC p2 = #P2-#P1
Slike pep = Cap Ex/years = $ Dep exp /year
Slike w/ salvage = (Cap Ex -stavage)/year= Dep Expense

I / Outlay prepery + plant =$150m

I /Outlay equipment =15m
Instal cost =5m

p0 P1 p2 p3 p4 p5
3% 5% 5% 4.50% 4.30%
150,000,000.00 3,900,000.00 7,500,000.00 7,050,000.00 6,750,000.00 6,450,000.00
20% 32% 19% 12% 11%
20,000,000.00 4000000 6400000 3800000 2400000 2200000
(I/Outlay prepary +plant + Instal cost)
book value of PP
book value of E
salvage of PP=102;book=$112.35; book>salvage>tax benefits = $102 + [Tax * (book -salvage)] 106,140,000.00
salvage of E =$3m; book=$0; book(salvage) tax expenses=$3m*(1-tax)= 1,800,000.00
p6 p0-Sum(p1-p6)
4%
6,000,000.00 112,350,000.00 (A)
6%
1200000 0 (B)

112,350,000.00 112.35m
0
 Period 0 1 2 3
Years 2012 2013 2014 2015
1) New Product Sales 52500000 72450000 92575000
2) Cannibali 0 0 0 0
3) Net Sales
4) Val cost 38% 19950000 27531000 35178500
5) S&A 12% 10% 8%
6) technology $50,000,000
7)Adv. And promo 3,000,000.00 20 20
8) EBITDA
9) Dep Expense 1600000 2560000 1520000
10) EBIT(negetive at period 0) -50000000
11) Tax expense 20000000
12) Net op profit -30000000
13) Ad back Dp--> #12+#9 -30000000 1600000 2560000 1520000
14) Cap Ex 8000000 $2.32
15)NWC 15000000 -15000000
16) FCF
 Period 0 1 2 3
Years 2012 2013 2014 2015
mkt share: $350m 350000000 402500000 462875000
Mkt growth 15% 15% 15%
market share (saget) 15% 18% 20%
market share $$ 52500000 72450000 92575000 this row should be net prodcut s
implicated # units 972222.22 1341666.7 1714351.9
54

Depreciation 2013 2014 2015

0 1 2 3
8000000 20% 32% 19%
Dep $$ 1600000 2560000 1520000
book 2320000

(salvage sold ~ book) 2320000

recovery cash flow is book $
this row should be net prodcut sales on the left FCF