UNIT 2

LECTURE 7 : Hypothesis Testing(Continued) Levels & P-values

Hi there,

This is your pal Scooby

Following are my notes for the lecture. These are my handwritten detailed notes. I felt that Prof. R
taught a lot more in the videos than he wrote in the slides. I tried to make them without any
mistakes and cover most of the video material.

But as Beyonce has rightly said : 'To err is human'

I however DO NOT TAKE any responsibilty if you fail your exams following my notes. So please
check the actual lecture slides and videos if you suspect something is wrong.

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The notes DO NOT CONTAIN solutions to any homework problems.Only the problems and
exercises solved in the videos are included in these notes.

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'A brave worrior dosen't fear anything, and so dosen't a fool'

~ Asgardian proverb

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Let's get started

Lec*J : Hybot?uesfs Tes (ConLtrured) : terrels & ?-val,r.rer 7,L
F BernorrlLl F:cpevirrr ent
r-e.ls re,calt l"rgP.rth"sts *estn2- *t*h- qn €xornple
T$s 3t*vt X1,X11X3 - - :. -.xn "'.'Ber(pl &vsome unknoNNr, p e (o,r)
Tirs* -the hgpothests
I/z \CS Hr z \, *{/z
Xo : P =
Ni{h osyrnplokc Jeuel cr e (o, t)
Ao w€, etqn* sotvi4g *h,e pvolcteha,
uJe knorc p, : Rn is o good es*imabo,r,
* f so I ryroke r,r,y {est std\sdc hrith n
lT.. Xr, -p -llnrs nxll help rne tn <alcu[akry {he
p(t-p) PnJoaUitibtes ve.l,rted to Jm in - q
rt(.-P)
lnonc*. tts a qood tdea. to
wr,oke it a *est stattst(o
3o vyry test stahshc is
T^ Jn X" -f
1c
tt- p)

Nour erprtit,.l, hoto to knorre, {orwar"d p"m h,evz, h{e cleciclenl W

^!e, expLol^ecl
C t"vitt corutrns't tlae {"e 1 eYror ie f r^}ttl alLor,ri it fro lce nnaxtrnat! d,
3*P o(y te) I d, fglt g € Oo
' 1e *he * **n
sh6utd.
be, smc.ltQrrtfram or e.qr*al to a( (te\^et)
$rre,rttnot, forc off g et Oo
ftx oux prololevu" r,^hat hg..Aa Oo and Or
we know g ts zlutvater$ to p heve Or
)to: g€Oo heve.wgharne ?=t/z o \
Hr .. e€ Or he.r€ hle hale, p*t/z J,
oo O (or'L)
=
3o o,ru. job rcas *o {-r.a Fe ( q = 1)
ylma^qSt *leZWt,
fub,",.1 erv# +*
au" p € Oo *hen, {rra,cl llae
,the
a.nA STLPY^e,rnuvr4/
an"d ensure ,6rrqt o\tevL su.pi"emum ts 8mol,[ar than 4
9t e,1uot *o x .

But ctue b ff: wqy hypothe.ri,s i^ {re;lcytdted W"? Oo 1+setf ts just a

Strnq,tetow ttlz\ . 3o tltis r,ytakes ourc 1ob easy.h)e1ust neeA +o f-tt*U-

vrt (v= r) au-d eyrsuxetha*, Frr(V=t ) < o(

Now obserq,re oreFty r"rhat hle do with +1,1*. tnel*c.U\ inr" {he,ncxL
pq
 7,2
we rnrere *o nsure
e, accoydirtg +o our pt4ocedure fLd {he ta[on:ing c"ndehon
hrtcls uHnr'ch iA
Fr (V=1) < a
Sorne one con be stnovt and 8W , Oku dun4 tdcrrrJ rnokethu prolc"brut<l
Fp (V= 1) equcL {o zero irzr--tlaat way i.K atra:ays o" . But {hrr' i
%aitr ia
fite Se-fltng e\,13l/y ctttrntnal {ree . we corut do lirat . hJ e ru declded +t"ri* tre
t
ru.axtvr.urn lotevance +,,. !+F" et^rdr ts oc And hre hohc sqy *lnot 4 harne ou
bu{ert oc acovditlg {o rs\Xjch a +^r€^k qy +ytae eyrcrr I
r,oout d" nkp. .I
!^.hO:}" f',r, advavttoqe of +1^^a totavon@ iur^.e J no1td ,tike et*d{yt*
iy suptt,rnum, . f n:ailt,
eu? B (V= r) : d,

lw )ttz cv+reunt axr,'.r,vtpte is a t;n{e+ow rutnlce-v y= t/t

Pt (V= 11 = d,
Now r.t you revnevnbe+ r6e s+o.,&ed oll {lu3 drsclgsiotzt iw ea*dtu- lerturl vtli+t4,
o. rnurrtberr C tvt ,rnruind & vrrc said *lae {euel or r,..rttt dectdetne C . Let6'see hour

{vstty hle *eQ, hut furnr-hm V ,qI hre knorc ik avr" ihdfcollol<, Jl

As g+atecl aarr,treN
rP dt T^ >c 1
\".ffi\
Xn-p
1t\m p(t- p) \
,'\

fl'thi' a-Y pre,ratsn ir 4$ th;g u\F^cl idn ra

-tryue q -_ I .FaLEe V=o

Nottl {i.rr's C rpitl loe de-c-tded bg oL . tnle haw estctbtished thot we want
Pv,\ V= 1) = x : Lclg subs+t+ube V $"rn o.borne

P,.(o Jn-n -.5

ll ,5(r-.5) l'"i 1-
=d"

Now hre knoro 4(a) = I -+ A oc.uys j so np r,^nile ol.cove sdake,rilcf,tYaA

fn -"5
f'^( r' \ J.r(r-.8) 7c o{
 lo3

dnd tln-is is a str,uiUax axpression, -lhat v.,re sarnr rcl.tile co,lcu\attn <on$dence intawalo

P,. (* \8!.= \ , ts equivalent {o P (lzt , c)

'2
|r's1r-'s) r "\/ esymptottc-a\l ravhere. 71 ev N(o,t)

{ertce hav.e tr(rZl >c) = d,

r..le
ttettce c tL bA d4 " { 1*aruite 1q, *z /
\ Vz
hte qot +he" val,ue o| c .l,€Is \r*.+ it back fo V
-1ry, 1*,
v I 1 rr'i J.=(,-.8)
8*-'5

{ence $tyno }uare, a s(rrngle proc,e,duve

Ptu6 ir,r, *lac datq, yot,t to*"d ,iw 1lae -(otto*tnn el\>vr,*;on

rqlH_^\
pu6-,5y I , 1ry,
r-
1

V tt^r'* cornes {rue , Y= 1 ', ?dp& flo : Crvtrr, ttnfarr

tJ thj* cnrn(A {afse : V= O t Foil{o reject Ho I Ci'"*"{ P"
ccr.ltei un{air

> ]t-i.IL revtsit Guy coivr losg exarnple (te Exompte 2)

t0e had Xn = l3/ZO * .42
Ne ho.d r\ = Gd
t1d hle did exacflg {he colcqlaton 'lrha* t.,e hyitl do here
\c*s soy \^'e Nont a test Ul Lewl Dl = 57. orc 'o5
\de need lo 6,^d \ry" = i.o2r = l,q6
JF eo*tie,Y I^1'e colcllatle

X" -'5 - -5
.ivl
"5(t-.-5)
$o "42
.$
/ .Y7
t-..s )

S,eedtex- h)€ gard that -'77 (r^rc did nd toke. rnod -then) tsa posstb\e
reaLi5atoYL '$
I.ol'Trnis ts tra.ke ---> v = o
le ['to ccrnnoL bz rejecte-d,
{.rr noL uutUke{ -thocf cotvt is Joit

;.cts rno1re sr to *he net.r)s orr /oufube Q<ampte

 1,7
fNews on Yotltube
Lets recsll {.,e pvob\ern : Suvwy wos cond^ucUed 6m6ng- 4qYt v'ondorn Arnexicorns.
hern:s '$/rsn"t y outrrLe . Can vue concl,{.de o.f
827. soid *tn.g golr qtleusb sqryle
mOSt j rd orC Arneric.orr, 9e,t ok\eoSt Ssrne ne\ds o71 Youlr'rbe?
3
hle soid Xr, X*.. ..Xvr ru Berrp) \ = 441)" is fltre,.
p^ = Xn = .zL (qiuen)
'iEe be like
hylrothess wtll
Ho : P 7r'ZZ : Sta+usquo l T* is de{tnitity a tuco s.Aed,
Ir : p(o.zi :llAYenluivYorelaiwu J terb as ve,suLK wtII prefer+
e,ith€r
* ttn. *r,oo ,r.td<*
LetS onCe qgo.rh rnsrrftC, O , Oo, Ot
o
@ '.PorameYev set (o, I )
Oo : [.ta, r) 0 .39 I
O' : (o, 'b\) Or o"
Nowr hle rno\re on *o -the *est J hee y€rrnember ouy heun\shc rnelhoc{

'(ni.' hqs noihing {o do with the $rtowing^ discnsston hut rt l.e(

us decide the sign v
q ot(f ineluali!
Bo A tr* {ne tttourt tesb
Jn f"-P c
TEEI'.

Jptt-p)
fnu nexb nafuyal questtcrn is honr \^)ill c be decided, ? {n" onsh}er is si.rnple
-*devaXe 0 ynax\mum q le.vet of evror' Amort3sb, otl tn'e'
Jow eqyr, I
.""1. {ound.Uy.
-**Ui"t
\P:1
posstbte rrreruee + tpfr P, :51 ,O"- $nd *he
maxivnurn/supre^,r*"'.?*t b i+ 'eXuo!'{o o( ' (osynnptodco$r)
qt Jn r"-r < c
fr

p(t-p)
f\

l
d(P) *xo(e

?" = Xn here'
h"g o< (p) =o(
p€Oo
Oo a.s s+qted e^Yter i s f.ez, t)
ss-n os {he +est is
FYnt noG- -tln^t c is o. c6v\s+ant , ie iG dedded os
hlt t^:{,'\
a."ia.n . A\lhorgh \^'e putt tts {+Yed &o uo'f,"n
$;J tt -llte.xflrd c r.^stti be sarnQ f"" *t[ o[tlnern-
Col,,urlaEe, ot(p) +" i.fl.*r.t pt

'rJn bv dt
No*p Xn -P * .d) , y \^jhehi:, f "..' ,iltort)
p(t - p) h+o
 7.5
$o
Pr(tffi. c) = o( (asYwtPtt'ttcat|)
{his orteo ts olso D{
rneans by symmetry
F(z <c) =, O(
Arca: x
\

8o .=-1* ? 1,_0.
c -c
/
$o hle con soy gy d.t o{ c =
luanlite 1,_*
X. -p of, avtCI. (t-x; is{o't?'re .,.W
r', (" <-1 o(
By sy rnm.ehy
*.
ptt -p) ) d i*s(o.h-
-r
-C=to< =+ C=-1*
.sdoro not'e 'tl"re orgunnenh ca'ne$ul.! (f{rs a l^lfle cern$,tsing )
tnlhen vr.re slte makir,ng {he test hre s qy
Corrrpufe li1- Y* - P colnpore t+ 1D -\*, {ort a
Srnen /ewl oc (sa1 s%)
t- P P)
C{ trua reject H. it vr,oL trute {riU+t reJec't Ho
be
+ 3"fto"" A halre doh" rrke the yorrlube crne vr-=4971 fn : ZL ,ro\tll
qbte {o eomPute t|re 'test now ? t'6 .\
,ZZ -P
Jt{qzt
P(r-P)
lne onsh}crt rs NO. un[esS f sp..i{y *Y p , f- awr s+qck with tne
y1sy6e.ri c oL c-0lcxtrt[CIn,

So {:he pofrat is untess T h^ve spec$e,d p Ibn mY lEsf sTNtsTtc

t r^covtt be qb\e l" P.ttr* the &st so I r,.+t\t ha.ve to specifr P
f-f i sarl p = .1 f rsay p= .5 q A scl p=')E
JE, E -'4 < - 1.<q5. Iw X-.r J[. Xn-'lE 4 - I.6\5
t l)(. q) .u (- 5) lGTs)(-z 5)
r*itl be wty {est w{[ be ,y +u.t \^]Lll be r.y tesb

tt i sa.1 p = p" qnd t

r^rlr,eye. po is o fixed no br".: o
jn Xn -Po
p" (r
-po)
no6 +hcrt \^re o.re catcu\".1tng the +ytr I' error wt^,rch is
Nor'.r
x" -P' -1 r.nis is+,Jprotoaniny $ our +est ft{et+tna \
PPI 5 <-1. I unclev {he recr\ p vsti*'-intlnis co'se berorr-gs*o Oo
Jp,tr-po)
be couse+his s\Fe I errcrr rn;hich is b7 sta{d1g
assurnpng {h&t tto Ls. trua
 7e
-Ib
-> drirne tlne potr* l'rorrre
Xr r Xz Xg, -. . . Xn qtt corre -tr*t q Ber (p)
h5e qve inley€sled in- *tb. I errcrr so we <rssurne p € 9o t* p>"33
We creota atest tndiiicluatty os fo\lovos
Xn-Po
v JJ
L'
\ lx
ly"(r- p"1
(p)
{",
under- {he assumgtton that Xi ^' Ber rarc c^olo.tcG 'the fli'*tg
r^"b abiUty
5, x-" -po
PP ( -1 c(
)
g"(r- po)
Av*rarirng +gF" I evtzrr
-2 Nor^r reo.d {his oo*S\y
A worrb *o clroose po guch +hqt rrir|'rer, P Valu'el fcntr '33 10 I
Iffie supre,mum d +h" aborrs frubabll.t! fs x and odl tlne others orte
leu -tl.,orn or %.^ot to ot .

+ T wsnk +o e.hoose po such 'thAt,

a*p n'p' [m n -& . -k] ', I i:?
Peo, L Jpo11=6 n-+6 "(

.liryr\s out po at boundY ie po: .bZ t..xtt pr,ne *he, su?

+ q ycu can rernernber *he cbo\ e hot .t about Po..b"iy- fn1 b"unbryf,
p# o?3 r and av^e, convtnced by t+ do not reod theftttonrtq axlumdnk.
fi" nok a Port { }}ra {eehrre '

No6 tho& Xr , Xr , Xe -- -- - -.Xn -" Ber (p)

ln K-r ,-ro--* i(o,t )

Jpttr- pt h*co

rGj ust c-otulolB,

PP -l* laJprr1-
Po(r -Po)
Jfr.

{* a. -['*.d Po ; po - 3{"8(-p,)
Jn
tg a conslqnt ,t"( c"tt it:b
Fp ll." <bl = F? x"-E PI E < .rfr (u- r)
F -h," p) p(t - p) 1 JEU-pj I
 7,7

Ftnaug p" conttnuad...

rce needlo skdy tlrrr
r( z ( Jfr (b-v)
- P) ) a( rm rn (to- p) t/-
{uwdtorr, -f* p7. "Lb
Ptr
r^r-rtf hobe +0 betiere ct *fu's P*ul-t *he {u"ehon Jod< -tike thn
td yr*
hrue-

li(b -P {* b = .5
a
P(r

P --'33 =!
Nor^: Yotr h^oy sqy us{y drd trx- choose b -- s & believe
. me t{ va'ltd $x
o*hec te's too . -tk"," graph *el.ts us =ttP ts ochie.rred
o* p ='33

So the s,.P is 0
jfr (b - "gr)
.tt ( .6y)
hie neonf +h& sup *o be q,

a
fi' (u -.ar) o(
J.s3 (. <z) 1
(q)
{ln (u - '33) a Ga:)1-571

b -QqI Qzg) (-€t) + .33

Jn

fubdt'fuHnn b baeV

3il 'gb q'.

Po
(t-P,) t33) (.et)
fi P,
$"
We delrr) see po = 'bZ is -1he srLtttorr-

-lii* is buu zna 4 {h.- f*f

 7,&
r* conlivuriqgfie teefure : h)e satcl rare rr,rrs* Choose boundoly volue poLl,r,tS &," P"
*hrs was the resubt, 6yheru the O \^ms porhtton 'irrto trr:o piece .

But wfnat qbout & co.se like {his

Or
O =(o,t) o
/
S .€.-r-
Oo= [.Er,6l t--l
Oo
Or= -oo r (o,.F)u(.6,1)
{}tis cqse hle hque 1o
ftna ae {fe ! errr {* botd" boundavy part6
tr'n"

lnd comp.tre tt at both poin6 tlre pttrtt at r^shtch *gpe 1 evrar {s

0ornrqst should be chosen as po

> Btarttln wifltu a differevd s{aUsttcat +,est

lvr, qU {^e examples vrrc sto.rted hlt+h a stotstica'. test
t"*
"X
Tn =tn xn -.{, nnd nre had Tn7 cor -fh < o" c lfnl > e etc
C heve {= E[xi] ra 1xi)
=Vax

{nA
+V,e reoson \do.s simgte r^,c Proce ed +o ona\yse o. test us\rtE \F" I error
{1ilzeruor ts a ?"$o.biu
I tetr, (+=t1 V ee o.
ry
We hod to eatc;,rtaka the s,^p ond h^.t tt {o oc NDT6

And fr"{rabitider calartafed wtth dishtbu}tqna

orre
r^she IAS\/tV )au
. nle dont knom -l}te d(stribuksn ,rl X" (nok r,eot\y)
. But r^,e .do knovo 'the dt'sH.buttcrn q
m L3 *_!-.tr_ ,iltort;
c ^1@
I{ s,ppose th, C-oee J't Xr - Ber( P) 1[ sho.uteo hrith a. diffe,rnent
tesk
-for. so*e coilstav\t \
fr^riucalcurake q ( E, < A) a,slvnp+o+tcalty

t,r"U notd vescale pp x'-P <J,.I-P \

(- Y 1"l.x-3
g P"I fm
)= \ JF(r-p) Jflr+)/
NoN t. eon caLculate. Pr&abiti+F accoro\ivr.g +o Cl.(- & ac.alt
fi .Jprr-p)
-lJ = C (a neuc c"rn-storutJ

f* A does not nndterr t e $xm { stu+ts+ic h,e +ol<e

 7"q
FT,rfroducl'taru to g vatuu
Ho i,r atroaSs greffered as !l,o l€tqtesto stofus luo
vue d[scussed, enrt\isr, rdlecl1ry
{s
qnd Ht ts the scierrlt$c enquiry {'lnaL a r€seorc}rer is pr-rraue ' So qi one Ir
qbte {p rejee+ l\o , -tlds *eoi.6 {nere ts a, scier,.d$tt c,ttscoverg.

Noto suppoSe o,
veseavchev catteils doto" and ra]ith {rue daka condLrc}g o *est- at Jen:I
d,.Sn/.'(=1y) . Now t* h-oppens +l^.cttloe. {est re.jecUed Ho ofi leve\ 57., Sorneone
twteresbed in +he resear chzr& pavdcul,arc work calta l'uttn up qnr{ so)3 \^rhof
if y* b*irrqdtrrsn *lne -\eve\ 5 Z'/" , u'rou\d Ko s{ttl be ve'jeated? Hot^: obouf
a iewL { !'/. " !{e see+hat Jhere/s notluiq Speual' qbout ti",e \er.d 57. .t{6prremer"
to ansrng -lhe questicrns asked. )dex one nritt kurre.*o nepeo& tae teEt,otoi^ ,^'1*14
Z'/, l-ernet or r, l'/. -Ierne[

LstS See anofl^ey {ssue .lctnat can occuY . Suppose r"re, oLee tgr,r a *est as belcru.r

t\,-"ll t r* > \v, 3

and 4 h.anne. dofi^ sucln rhafi vny test sko.-tilshc Tn = 1.qB +hqt acdcl.dafed{bmdalt
Norn J tesb +hjs Srl, fevel x: 57. lntra 1.46
9=lL t l"qB)t.Q6f = I --+ Qejec]Hoiescied*'$c d\scouerttr

Tru = l.qB and lvr= l,ozs = 1.q6 "ane. ff I j"t1 p$Iish o. Pofelc s"fr"f
+hC -there \oas a sc-rent$'c dtsco*lrt at 97. lernel orrd do not teLL th-e- readex
about jlte ctogeness o{ Tn and Qg" , a ra.atw reado-*c 14^i6lLt hrlie,v',e wz-
{o'nrer^ev i{ { per{ovm I test u.ri+h the a4 = \"/o 1*, = 1.o,
z 2,05
frais.frne I--[tt.qA]t.o5] - O \"nc,4-t^t4o reiec] Ho
Who tls to sqq C dtdutt tureok mu daba itrct to reiect Ho qt 5% ler,rel
who is to sojl T ,"rttt re,1ieet rto otriin it t *so*pl" (cotrect vlernr srbsevva+ron^)
hcouldWt .i* be nlce reported rnsteod gl arceptry or rejea+in1 cb cer+crin lerel
.,{ T
sag(sZ) , a rurrnbuc ylLV .AlL ocfi )LVt xlhm*h,rtd -folr o.ll, iernets ot au,e?ilow
or rejecttr4
{
P- Val,rre aefivu#
Tne,losymptotLc) p varue
{ a" *esh Vo. ts "{,lne qrnallest (o,srlnptottc) ,tzwl o]
ralhrch, 'ln reje*s Ho .ft'in vandonn" arnd elependa crrr sannpte .

Be4oxe cakr,t\altovrs )ttr

see soma J.e"tu,.e^ p -value
4
,?voJ.up.lirrcs oy1, o.zs Acale i [ke X .lies betwee.n O eyLd t p value olso liq bw 081
,
AF & can, \oe consrdevpd a perou,*0,Ae eon be p val.ue eouidered o. percenlage.
so
. Pvalue is a chaviackevts+tc o{-data i.rlllecLed L fus\ : Eech sampte +hat rye colleck
and -tlne, test rare declde hxtt gr,e out a. pvatue speci$ctothaY*t,st & dota,
ft mey so happam, tltat pvatle changes &, a nero sampla ) gonle +e*
t+ may atso horcun, that pvalle changer fox. t me-D ttrst ) sama samf'l"e
 Y- to
'Qolden. rr^lg : the
de{tni+ton o{- Pvalrre i}g -{rlre,smollest (aa6tnph.ittc) ),,Q}rd- ok
As pot
rthieh V* rc.jactS Ho .Acor6ing{ote forrnc\isnmorcttmlerre,L e6 incve.o&s ,*lne more.
\^J{. cr,}€ {otevatlg +U+E f zrrcf ;o *l,re mov€ E tnri,tt Ue rejerrlrtrn6- ua ( thcreolr*
&trniUnvtr4 os o( goesip zero,hle sqy hlg will yrewy reject Ho. (d[scussedeortli'ert)
.8o t^re c-an, vdsuoJ.iT;- th^r ju a. sarnp\e and u V ,lhe.leret oa
caw go Jvann, o 't! 1
t*w Twtute,st

o p-voJue
1
-***> d. Ax{s
J T
Itere fu{he l,tere-ftx{.re
{rxedsorny'eSQ t**.d somple
)to r,uitl ru h*tt d$^tay
As ookeeps on, W wjedced
never be ncreasIvrg
rejected f"*,O
tohrqvds I ) ++\?*e, vstt\
CgrY\ a x garnfi , obow hlhr& Ho
wtllbe rcjecbeA
9" botornr unYhi ch Ho rnxtt be acepVeA Ytence
Tutrs crrihlc-al, laotl'rfi 'r'r the p vahe

r$o ,nakrruil.ttr-. +rt gorne oe lne QororN RuLE is

p -vaLre < oc # Ho r;e rejecbed bt: v" at ,*d"f,rtic h*el a,
' '',ti'I,e prnotler *he more c"n$dernilgL one col1, vy--je;r:h Ho
+r^e. p-value

[o occordi4g -{o +he gotden rute a+qst ot'ang le,uel obouns p vo&te '^}c t^}ill rejacL
Xo because p value u ++\z gvrrollelt voh^a,ltrr/eX cf \^fiicll" U nE..t H" . ry
le.\ret abore gvalue wttl" de{i"nibe} rejeok Ro
So .f* suppose *he v^lxe conres out *o be L"/"
%. P
Ilo u,rill Ue ruje$nA al ong lewL aloorne 17. ie L7",SZ ,1o'/" ,2oZ
No'^': Jo" * *o'ff;';. :;[ff
^ffitr J::..] ie .ooz.,,, .o!",,, os7.
8o rnr- halne ,rnr-rrh rnong conJtderrce in vejecri4g H,
le r^re crre nnuch rvlrhe con$aenf tot -+t^,e nl,,r,) d.<*covvry
 7.it
F Ercevcise : K{SS
f,+nottg at the endol
y4^-l€cfur€ ,nre ore oJcte{o sfudgtlte prololemposed tn tJr.L.Le(sgo
XtrX.r *-.*-,Xn iigBertp) ; vl =t2'4 ;5("='645
> k ts rrrite *he sta+tsdcal rnodeL (f , t Pe3eeO )
Xt {s pernor,,rtli so tqt<e^r on$ *trro valler o e/e I ,

Trre paramef,eY set O {s (orl) , g i" P

Tne modet t"s
( to,r j , { Ber(g) 3p e co,u )
> Letg -fovntu\ata +)r\!- h*614^QJ,,^A
)to ., ? + !/t : S*o*us 1*o (tikea-fatvcoin) 'fJ Tnere ts no P.ete(:"<.e
]o .ry|
>lr : p * Lb ; Screntr{+c drscor,rerg sideo{ O ,hence i(d o"+u}o sided.
test
) Norn.r r,...le wr,ake or-ur tesd slaltshc ( fiyCeaytiev)
Tn Xn-'5 alh I{^ -.s
Jn
.5(r-.5) I
= l 8, '^i+|,l-ttis C cora"farrru
fat+, {uvtc+toz V
rn,tX

> te.E+ V at lewL oc

te *j** uvher,r, Exp,rne*ion irnude

v L t {lnlIn-.SI irdicotur JL(.) rg'{rrre

> PLu6 irn" llne wuube.ra +r. &= 57,

X" = . 645 y"= lL4
nryr= L,qL
v = lt t a fiffi \.a+s -,51 > t.q6 1

= ltt t -(cruce hre rejeck

U
a*, tercL 57,

6 raYE realizak* g+avdald gaul,'siorn' ACo't1

Norn h6ethai Z.zzq ls ^d *t"2.'rne-oa,0.
*L^)qy forn
fl, ts rnovre than rrtondord cteviattons
4r,rhounh oux test r.ejects it it
dosev(t te\L us *nffry
ltaorrt
tnz slyetfiL wi+fi-
uyiu.fn"' +f"e vejer+tcn- Ot K" happeru . So v.r< cofculate p volue
fo coJcr.rto.Le tt,
\^!e ask +he ques{torr, . qL^err r,rq daba & tna txt
, n:hat ds the
smoltegb tewt d oc *rnat c. un $^d ftr nnaich m;i*est r"ritl
rej<,k lto
trc
Tru-s ts e4uival8rn"t fo^ askin6 \^lhD,t {s svvrotlest {ewt o}ot 'thot witl ryrne I = i'
I
V ts aya iytdtcotor funchoil" So V= r^shen -{he axp'rness'ton tnside the indfcakor
is true . Ao lets sotf lrhat p vdue ts de,nfiad ot
%
Norac hle kvtour

Xn - "5 td)r,il(o,r) un'dert ?=L/t-

Jfr
,5(t-,b ) ' wt@
 Y, JL
&uf.p,osu voe cc\culaVe {he goneral" f.bob*t^hd-
P ( ,m lI'" -'sl > zo) t* some vutmbetr zo

Nour oyrEr^Rn ttr,is elu\! , {ot

luesttrnru cot
my co\te.fq clatou arld 'ttAb eax'lr'e,l(
.accept
\arhat vttrwrber shoutd Zo be just *o lto (fe {tip tvte tnqualr{)

2o 2fi \fn -.51 em16-.51>:L. v

o
-Iyue I (R1ect Ftd
2.22-q
.5 -Tru e j. (Rq{ectHo)
b,2-2-q
t.o Z,zzl Tv^ug l" (eejectRo)

2.0 3.22-q I rru €. I [Rejec+ H")

-Tyue I (Rejcct'Ro)
5.o z. 22^q

3'20 2.221 Tvtte I (Rgec+ u"1

L,zzq h.z\q fie a+rrus1rw:/'d, caxt-

Ya. 3"22q Fatse o ( 6itt" iectu")
O ( F^iL+o rejectRo)
3.r V"2_L9 FaLge
O Cn^l1to pgiecrRo)
{,o b "L2,q Fafse

& the value $ strlis+tc *ha*r,,re cottecfed {rorn o,rrt da}a G tlla Zo t"*
\ lhich '^)€ t"rttl i.^d the ct{l+tcal c.o.se ahd{ne prohatxlf+y o.ssocial'ed'+o
+hcLt rzalue is *l,ra gvalue

P (rrnt[,-.51 >z.zLq)_ dp=pvdue

thjs ts eluuv oJu,\k b.6. C.LT fu L*WptotrcatlT)

f Itzt > z.zzt) =(r-A(z.zzt))*"eooor2

-l-rre P volue d k d^ exomple ts " oolz ot ,LZ 7.
+sa.[ a]corne t{u3 ternel ow tln-is P cr<lrcrrtox som ptu r"'itt ?e.ject t{o
+d
 7. 15
F Exestcise : Coorieg
Sfuderuts ove qsked{ocounttr.o"l' chocototB chips trn- 5z coticie's '1i.'c5 $undl}^*{p
eoch cookie f","]-la;l? ckr-ips oia o stondartd aevio*tcn { 4'31 ' Corztpo'JY ctain,x
$.of *herrc ore, olteost zo ckuips percookie ' Exptore

Ao occordilS -lo lilae d^ta r^)e ho$e

rn* 32, Xn = \4.17
Ne neect {o nnoke soma cleustsrTa frrc na odotl.r,{
Xi l5 N (.,r1, o-a)
we nrttt use the arguvvrefis used pru-vfotrs$ Attl,,orXlr, v,re t<nowt +hal, ffru^ian
Lokes r,te2,o^,ttw value P( X < o) witt be .tu$tvtitesnna\! small"
Ne o*aunLe c2 = 4S7z
Ju,the cqse.N)bo {?us assurvrp}to?l con c\o ouY job, Sodorl*.tooYr! if i6 a"n,aP?roxirna}ioo
Muo a perJorm {he test ^Le,(s {ovrn *he lrXFothe,srs
Ho ; r7r2-o 'H'fiil1-"HJ[s]f.J*;t#trr1f;]arar*r+
I Jnis ts tne c.lairn (studend,). a+itrhe scientiJrc avtluir*
Hr : { < ao
*t
{nis is a *wo sided regt : As ve,gu[6 witt pr"e{cx, ?\Y 4 Yi& a-berrdomark
{vJs ts a ,;; ;;pt. +cst
' c*t*''
tr H;l#t\i^l,T;l-pte
*esb
) 3o .l,etg rrtoLe 1'1ag . -r.r.
houo rnrc (on+aed' lasurstic '
We purst tA'61 Jo"ttt
Tvte etn4uirY ts ttl ri
't1 < Lo .')
f,o i satl $eF radaen X,' + Uw(ert(r'r,r) 1 Zo ? Xn
4nen rcjec*Ho
w{ruicln' t'uill be
\< t
Tr,js tat\s r,lr tte Uyn + ttoe'rluatrtg re\a+tw {o
LeX ranak e 'lhe test
Bziec+ uYheYt Xn -{
Jn.
f

JGre, +hat due *o r^8. assurrap+ton, 'llaat Xi ^9 Ji( t 12) , x-n rs ilse$
,[ knovo {laab eurn d is itseLf o*"
A 6um 6aussians tr.l ^* ftar,rssiora,
\^r{+t^ n
6ar.tssiarr,
Moon [[vr] = Etx"l = E
t
l(xr+Xr+ Xa-.'-.xn)
n l @'l={
n
Vox (Kn) = J Volc (XrtXe+-..Xn) n Van (Xr ) g 2"

nz t* n,

n l.t
,ri to,f ; {'lrs 'ts wob oatt^PhttcattX-
n/n" Irc trre jor art2 Yl,
 Y,l\
) 3o I
proc*A {ovutard
Rejeck tnYherr- -m -I" -{ < c : c ts Xek '\o lce decided
f

\b. I eYYaT

-P"lLI :a I"-'{t'
q
{ ,4eo o

ierf \>tzo
/t"p _o{
n>zLo
IL r J

Md rnre lqnorO the supv",emurn rartlt be ochielrrgd ak tcourn)avj caae

1=-
Ao

P J-n X"-2o qC d"

1=% 4.2-7

BuJo* o5t1g ivt f' o'nd w t^lt 4tq\r? ye* to decide c

We kvtorac uvtde,q 1= 2-0 la -xn-30^ N(o,r)
4.s7
NCort)

1.tnrs ovtor"ritl be J-*

c
1.t^is ohea ts x
qcc.ordir,ra to
\" ey d+ q[ Euavr&ile-* Bt ,d^rnetry ,{.
\au,,x.tar-
above el,Iaton c=9r-0. _ln
Jr_rr=
)n t Jt'"^l+ fuue, {he \est

V I 4,37
-lx
1
Ruu*
J
tshcnh'e
nnxide Qx\Aio^trus

Jri .Xn *ro. ,%qin, -1B1,. 1\'77-2-o = - 6,7'7 4+"is does yr#
4,2't olota- 4'21
dook J.r,ke a ptatrsibte
r^eafrgatt n o[ nar.uur'avr,
\Ne he strict Orrrd uSe {ee g {l,tat r".re
t'i n,{t
€, valeytHu Co.f\ Jorrtqrtated
t* x--57 qr( = 1.ou - 1'645

te rre'ject Ho
 Y,15
) Hora: aboub p vaLrte for cosLtr,g
A good vute oJ, +turnfo is jus* to subskfufc, *lne, value 4 co.tc.ur\akeA s[altskc
in ptoce
"*
c
ts "rji (o, t)
PV alue tr ( Y. I - 6J7 )
fn'-" coy!,\es ou+ to be :aevo(o) ravhen ptuqged in orn[tvre cqlcula]cr

p Lxercise: Macl,ti^,e k-o.rnin6- predic( breasb carwzt

ft*. pos ir,w ,'ffi ffi'"*,fr;:-?ffiilffi;:ii,"H,l
-*tU J:J:Hr*
u-surgerX- when there
^:Y: L{or need'
AtAt hove"+o uvrdevgo ^o
(as per{lne q.res-kon)+[4@ S+o{e 4 1tn" axt penchrrno'vk'rs Q57"
ie
Rioh+ notA
:tS;'"t **rrs {h^t crJrc. o{rerared u\ron ctssurvtivg' +ne4 &v€ cancevcrrtA
hr*J'.lcs -thnt needed no suYqely
ott atl"
olre o.t^aty'1r.*A^
',narne rec,'uced {'t^a ra,6'
t l.aer^l rrtachrne \eoxvtivg. mettnoct cfatrras 3"t. ry( *r"ue pcsi]ir,re va,6.
po",.i** rnuhlle s\.[L keepi^g*rn] sarne
c[ fotse ",6"-,]e^4v
.l thr4rrohltwv
eK jorntulrate
> e,^onoutrovtre, q,ffi
t>urgotu6 , Nt *ffi"^fil. T'"fu'"? T [',ffiY il"'ff ":ffifr k
X, xt, Xa - -" ''X^ '^'" BoY(P) -!4U algorit?r;"a'
r"
posili.e ra\ir $^'t't"
g ; true propor*t* "k fo.\se o7t aq7}ce^rr*3** LA1
ol{hern so xn = ::.*=
tro*x*t{he }dLa[o,rrlhrn,r, c\abau.toscntterred
:'urger$ 'px zoa & '6q36
2q7 =
-Fnu allovittr, *Jr.r^ended'
wa {or,r,^''rta}e
+t QhoUaeur
Ho P
, + +l^e al'b slahrs llo
1v^is rb tha stakz
: Jr,,ris r.s +ho daj; 4h.suevtltst + *t okXmillnr,
Hr P
Oo = ?7'15
A t,+i.It vtjwv rnYl'r'e'n'
CIr = ? <'q5
+,rva
YtN! w\t*) "rvye'

oJhev e'xampte we dtd' iw B,e:.nrufft

> Srr& wVe. r.,vvl A

xn
{ I Jt1
P

I
.l{nis 'is
jun^edmn
'+1'^L 6L+

t Jptr-pr

DUP ID
JIp J7
[rt P (c d- (.ffy1W;c^lt )
? b'Q5 t- p) t p( 1

We kala o nr Sy tg atta.i ned. qt \c -'Q5

 7,16
-ltw vafue .4 c{a
1" i*r like
a
- {ho fanevr)ar,r,a o,xamVle

t c-oyt ralttite the ,gf*{i* reXtaw

R : f" - ,QS -1"

t%eE' rr)
J'qs(r-.qs] I
> l-rB cal.e"talf

fi ["
(.6q-.q5)
-"qs
,q5(l-,q5)
{lffi . qsr,F . OS
= - 20.55q

is tloV u l€afiz.o*fuv! ** moL vouiable'

-La ,55q Plau'ribfe "1|
-u
<{or X t ,i(o,t)
4+^e, pvahe .F (A <-e'o'55q) {e

.}to tnw he- wjo^ufuA, rnrt{|" c" -lrb 4 o* !'aerwe

\*,