Global Ecology and Biogeography, (Global Ecol. Biogeogr.

) (2010) 19, 145–158

RESEARCH A biogeographic model of fire regimes

R E VIE W
in Australia: current and future
implications geb_512 145..158

R. A. Bradstock*

Centre for Environmental Risk Management of A B S T R AC T

Bushfires, Institute for Conservation Biology
and Law, University of Wollongong, NSW
2522, Australia
*Correspondence: Ross Bradstock, Centre for
Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires,
Institute for Conservation Biology and Law,
University of Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia.
E-mail: rossb@uow.edu.au
Aim Patterns of fire regimes across Australia exhibit biogeographic variation in
response to four processes. Variations in area burned and fire frequency result from
differences in the rates of ‘switching’ of biomass growth, availability to burn, fire
weather and ignition. Therefore differing processes limit fire (i.e. the lowest rate of
switching) in differing ecosystems. Current and future trends in fire frequency were
explored on this basis.
Location Case studies of forests (cool temperate to tropical) and woodlands
(temperate to arid) were examined. These represent a broad range of Australian
biomes and current fire regimes.
Methods Information on the four processes was applied to each case study and
the potential minimum length of interfire interval was predicted and compared to
current trends. The potential effects of global change on the processes were then
assessed and future trends in fire regimes were predicted.
Results Variations in fire regimes are primarily related to fluctuations in available
moisture and dominance by either woody or herbaceous plant cover. Fire in
woodland communities (dry climates) is limited by growth of herbaceous fuels
(biomass), whereas in forests (wet climates) limitation is by fuel moisture (avail-
ability to burn) and fire weather. Increasing dryness in woodland communities will
decrease potential fire frequency, while the opposite applies in forests. In the
tropics, both forms of limitation are weak due to the annual wet/dry climate. Future
change may therefore be constrained.
Main conclusions Increasing dryness may diminish fire activity over much of
Australia (dominance of dry woodlands), though increases may occur in temperate
forests. Elevated CO2 effects may confound or reinforce these trends. The prognosis
for the future fire regime in Australia is therefore uncertain.
Keywords
Australia, climate, fire regimes, forest, fuel, global change, ignition, moisture,
woodlands.

nental extremes of latitude. By contrast, the bulk of the conti-

INTR O D U C TI O N
Australia is the most fire prone of all continents, but fire regimes
vary widely, ranging from high frequencies and relatively
low intensities (e.g. 1–5-year recurrence intervals and
< 10,000 kW m-1; Gill et al., 2000; Williams et al., 2002) in tropi-
cal savannas of the north, to low frequencies and high intensities
(e.g. > 100-year recurrence intervals, > 10,000 kW m-1; Gill &
Catling, 2002) in tall open forests of the cool, temperate south.
These examples represent relatively moist ecosystems at conti-
nent between these extremes is dry (arid or semi-arid) but still
remarkably fire prone (Allan & Southgate, 2002; Russell-Smith
et al., 2007).
Russell-Smith et al. (2007) divided the continent into six
zones that reflect a gradient of rainfall seasonality, with recent,
annual fire activity a positive function of rainfall seasonality. The
dynamics of biomass growth (fuel) and availability to burn
(dryness) govern these trends, resulting in an immense annual
area of fire in the northern wet/dry tropics. Russell-Smith et al.

© 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd DOI: 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2009.00512.x

www.blackwellpublishing.com/geb 145
R. A. Bradstock

(2007) also detected a strong influence of human activity on fire, may have wider applicability (e.g. exploration of global patterns
with both positive (i.e. increased ignitions) and negative effects of fire, Bowman et al., 2009). The aim is to:
(i.e. intensive pastoral and agricultural land use) evident. 1. Illustrate that variations in fire regimes across ecosystems
Broadly similar conclusions emerge from a recent analysis of reflect a systematic variation in rates of a common set of key
southern African regimes (Archibald et al., 2009). processes, rather than idiosyncratic local effects.
There is general debate about the relative importance of these 2. Predict whether climate change will have equal effects on fire
drivers (climate, fuel, ignitions), and the related influences of regimes throughout Australia, and if not, where the highest
land management, in shaping fire regimes (Westerling et al., levels of change may be anticipated.
2006; Marlon et al., 2008). Linkages between these drivers and 3. Predict the consequences of other global change effects.
underlying biophysical processes should explain variability in Will vectors of change (climate, CO2 and humans) have con-
fire regimes within and between ecosystems (Archibald et al., gruent or antagonistic effects on fire regimes? If congruent
2009). In particular, such an understanding should indicate effects are likely, only the magnitude of change will be uncertain.
which processes are likely to have the dominant influence on fire If antagonistic effects are likely, both the direction and magni-
in particular ecosystems. tude of change will be uncertain.
The drivers of fire regimes are reasonably well known for
some regions within Australia. For example, variations in litter
fuel dynamics in temperate eucalypt forests affect the season, THE B IO PHY SIC AL B ASIS F O R PR EDIC TION OF
frequency and intensity of forest fires (Walker, 1981; Raison VAR IATIO N IN F IR E R EGIMES
et al., 1983). Drought is associated with major fires in southern,
Extremes of moisture availability govern the growth/
forested regions (Ellis et al., 2004; Verdon et al., 2004), whereas
accumulation of biomass/fuel (wetness) on the one hand and its
above average rainfall leads to burning of very large areas in arid,
ability to burn (dryness) on the other (Huston, 2003; Bond &
central Australia (Allan & Southgate, 2002). Seasonal timing of
Keeley, 2005; Pausas & Bradstock, 2007; Russell-Smith et al.,
ignition can cause changes to area burned, intensity and spatial
2007; Archibald et al., 2009). Fire is therefore related to moisture
heterogeneity of fire regimes in tropical savannas (Russell-Smith
in a nonlinear way (Fig. 1). The effects of dryness are only
et al., 1997; Gill et al., 2000). Cross-regional integration of these
important following periods of high moisture and resultant
disparate effects is, however, lacking. Insights via exploration of
large-scale fire patterns in relation to key processes are also
restricted by the limited temporal scope of data (e.g. Russell-
Smith et al., 2007).
Australia is predicted to be prone to substantial shifts in
climate, including increases in temperature and evaporation,
and highly variable and uncertain changes in rainfall (CSIRO,
2007). Much of the focus on future fire under climatic change in
Australia has been on forecasting changes to fire danger indices
(e.g. Williams et al., 2001; Hennessy et al., 2005; Lucas et al.,
2007; Pitman et al., 2007). Cary (2002) used landscape-scale
simulation to show that future increases in fire danger may
translate into significant increases in area burned in forested
environments of south-eastern Australia. However, in addition
to fire weather, climate change has the potential to alter ignition
rates and the availability of fuel by, respectively, changing the
incidence of lightning and plant productivity and decomposi-
tion of dead plant material. Other influences such as the effects
of elevated CO2 on plant growth and the effects of humans on
ignitions add further complexity. Simulation using dynamic
vegetation models (e.g. Thonicke et al., 2001; Scholze et al.,
2006; Lenihan et al., 2008) offers potential for an exploration of
future Australian fire regimes via an integration of these influ-
ences, but such models are currently hampered by coarse spatial
resolution and use of inappropriate plant functional types for
Australia.
Figure 1 Potential relationships between moisture, productivity
This paper presents a conceptual model of the key drivers of and fire frequency (after Bond & Keeley, 2005; Pausas &
fire regimes, and uses it to characterise the biogeography of fire Bradstock, 2007). Corresponding trends in Australian tree cover
across Australia as a basis for predicting the effects of global and domains of strong limitation by woody (vertical hatching)
change on fire regimes. Given that the fundamentals of the and herbaceous fuels (horizontal hatching) or weak limitation
model are universal, insights from its application to Australia (unhatched) are indicated.

146 Global Ecology and Biogeography, 19, 145–158, © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

B Plant functional types
Soils
A Habitats
Climate
S Australian ecosystems as a result of patterns of biogeographic
CO2
Humans
I Biomass (B)
Figure 2 Influences of biogeographic factors (climate, soils,
habitats, plant functional types) on fire regimes via four ‘switches’
(biomass growth, B; availability for burning, A; ambient fire
weather, S; ignitions, I). Potential effects of changing climate,
human activity and atmospheric CO2 are indicated by dashed
lines.
plant growth. Temporal fluctuations in moisture availability will
therefore influence fire frequency. Characteristic patterns of
mean and variance in available moisture are therefore likely to
have a fundamental influence on variation of the fire regime
(Gill et al., 2002; Russell-Smith et al., 2007). In particular, mois-
ture may influence fire regimes through determination of fuel
types, via selection of key plant species that are highly influential
(‘fuel species’; Gill et al., 2002).
A small number of large fires account for the bulk of area
burned over time in many ecosystems (Boer et al., 2008; Cui &
Perera, 2008). Significant area burned, via large fires, can only
occur when available fuel is spread across large areas. Connec-
tivity of available fuel is important due to the contagious nature
of fire spread (Peters et al., 2004; Pueyo, 2007). Landscape- and
regional-scale patterns of moisture fluctuation will influence the
probability of large fires and thus area burned via effects on the
production and drying of contiguous fuel. Temperature, wind
speed and humidity directly influence the rate of spread of fires
and the degree to which fires can bridge fuel discontinuities
(Catchpole, 2002; Peters et al., 2004; Boer et al., 2008). As a
consequence, area burned will also be influenced by these ‘fire
weather’ variables, as recognized in models of fire behaviour and
fire danger rating systems (Catchpole, 2002). Climate will also
determine the frequency of lightning and the ensuing probabil-
ity of ignition (e.g. Price & Rind, 1994).
Biomass production (B), its availability to burn (A), fire
weather (S) and ignition (I) represent a hierarchy (Fig. 2) of
conditional processes governing fire (Archibald et al., 2009).
They can be regarded as four hypothetical ‘switches’ that must
be simultaneously activated for fire to occur. Area burned will be
a direct function of the spatial scale (i.e. the contiguous area)
over which they jointly prevail. Should any switch be ‘off’, fire
will not occur. Fire can therefore be constrained in differing
ways, through the effect of turning different switches ‘off’. Some
switches are ‘off’ more often than others in different ecosystems,
resulting in fundamentally different fire regimes. Identification
of the ‘limiting’ switch (i.e. the switch activated least often) and
Global Ecology and Biogeography, 19, 145–158, © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd
A biogeographic model of fire in Australia
its relationship to differing ecosystem characteristics is the key
to understanding these variations.
The rate of switching in each case will be a function of inter-
actions between climate (mean and variability) and soils (fertil-
ity, texture, depth). This will shape habitats and the selection of
available plant functional types (Fig. 2). Therefore, both the lim-
iting switch and its inherent switching rate will vary among
variation in these factors (Hutchinson et al., 2005).
Surface or near-surface fuels (primarily dead leaf material) are
critical for the spread of fire in most Australian vegetation types
(Catchpole, 2002). Fuel quantity is therefore affected by foliar
cover (Walker, 1981) and leaf attributes. A primary distinction
can be made between herbaceous and woody plants because of
differences in the characteristics, rate of supply and arrangement
of material derived from these life-forms.
Tree cover will be a primary determinant of the type of
surface fuel. Tree cover is positively correlated with patterns of
available moisture that arise from climate and interactions with
soil depth/texture (Beadle, 1981; Williams et al., 1996; Specht &
Specht, 1999; Fensham et al., 2005). Fire regimes may also
reduce tree cover below edaphic/climatic potential (e.g. Liedloff
& Cook, 2007).
Eucalypt open forests (i.e. canopy projective foliage cover
> 30%; Gill, 1994; Specht & Specht, 1999) occupy areas with
relatively high moisture availability (Fig. 1). Litter from trees
forms the principal surface fuel (Walker, 1981; Raison et al.,
1983), augmented by variable contributions from shrubs and
herbs. Fuel quantity and extent is a therefore a function of the
turnover of perennial foliage with major variations in cover and
load of surface fuel driven primarily by the degree of tree and
shrub cover (a function of moisture availability) and time since
the last fire (Walker, 1981; Specht & Specht, 1999; Berry &
Roderick, 2002).
Woodlands (10–30% tree cover; Specht & Specht, 1999) are
common in drier environments (Fig. 1), and cover vast areas of
the interior (Beadle, 1981; Groves, 1994). There is interplay
between woody litter (trees) and herbaceous fuels in woodlands.
Litter fuel from trees is typically discontinuous because of rela-
tively low cover, so that overall fuel availability is strongly influ-
enced by fluctuations in herbaceous biomass. Connectivity of
surface fuels is provided by herbaceous material (e.g. grasses and
herbs; e.g. Hodgkinson, 2002; Prober et al., 2007, 2008).
Availability to burn (A)
In forested systems, drought alters the moisture status of com-
pacted litter beds derived from woody plants and thus availabil-
ity to burn in horizontal (e.g. differing aspects) and vertical (e.g.
within litter bed) planes. This changes the propensity for large
fires to develop by altering the connectivity of fuels across land-
scapes. Droughts may also temporarily increase litter fall from
trees and shrubs in both temperate and tropical environments
147
R. A. Bradstock
(e.g. Pook et al., 1997; Cook, 2003). By contrast, in grass and
herb fuels, dry periods initiate rapid leaf death (curing) of
perennial and ephemeral species (e.g. Catchpole, 2002; Spessa
et al., 2005).
Ecosystems in the northern, monsoonal tropics experience
prolonged annual wet and dry seasons, whereas those in south-
ern, temperate regions may experience severe drought on a mul-
tidecadal cycle, influenced by El Niño oscillations (e.g. Cullen &
Grierson, 2009). Pronounced water deficits are a regular sea-
sonal feature of arid and semi-arid environments (Hutchinson
et al., 2005).
Fire spread (S)
Severe ambient weather conditions (high temperatures, wind
speeds and low humidity) result in the rapid spread of fires,
irrespective of fuel type (Catchpole, 2002). Ease of ignition and
flame transfer are increased by high temperatures and low
humidity. Wind directly affects flame length and depth, and
propagation of fire via embers. Area burned will therefore be
directly influenced by these variables (Gill et al., 2002; Boer
et al., 2008). Fire weather is a function of latitude and rainfall,
with the annual incidence of severe fire danger conditions
declining with increasing rainfall and latitude (Gill & Moore,
1990; Williams et al., 2001; McCaw & Hanstrum, 2003; Lucas
et al., 2007).
Ignition (I)
Definitive data on ignitions from lightning versus anthropo-
genic sources are elusive, due to the remoteness of many regions
and difficulty of attribution to sources (e.g. McCaw & Han-
strum, 2003). Many official records indicate large proportions of
ignitions of unknown origin. Lightning ignition rates (I) gener-
ally vary from being common annually in the tropics to rare in
the cool temperate zone (Kuleshov et al., 2006). Anthropogenic
ignitions are a function of population density and land use, with
rates high near urban development (Gill & Williams, 1996;
Bradstock & Gill, 2001) and low in dry pastoral/agricultural
landscapes (Noble & Grice, 2002; Russell-Smith et al., 2007).
C U R R EN T F I R E R E G I M E S I N A U S T R A LI A :
PATTER N S O F LI M I T I N G ‘ S W I T C H E S ’
Potential influences of fuel, fire weather and ignitions on fire
regimes are coupled (Fig. 2). Grass/herbaceous fuels will be
important where moisture deficits (low to moderate tree cover)
and high levels of fire danger are severe and regular (Fig. 1).
Woody/litter fuels (moderate to high tree cover) occur where
such effects are less severe and regular (Fig. 1) or where trees can
access other sources of water (e.g. tropical savannas; Bowman &
Prior, 2005). Growth and curing of grasses and herbs (perennial
and ephemeral) respond rapidly to fluctuations in available
moisture. C4 grasses may be highly influential in this regard, due
to their productivity under pronounced conditions of seasonal
variability (Murphy & Bowman, 2007; Osborne, 2008). As a
148 Global Ecology and Biogeography, 19, 145–158, © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd
a) Effect of biomass growth (B)
WSF
DSF
TF TGW AW
1 5 10 100
Potential IFI (years)
Moisture
b) Effect of fire weather (A+S)
AW
TF
TGW DSF WSF
1 5 10 100
Potential IFI (years)
Moisture
Figure 3 Potential minimum length of the interfire interval (IFI)
as determined by: (a) biomass growth (B); (b) fire weather (i.e.
availability of dry biomass plus influence of wind, temperature
and humidity on rate of spread of fire, A + S) in relation to trends
in available moisture, as indicated by direction of arrows (see
Figure 1). Different forest and woodland types are indicated
(tropical forest, TF; temperate dry sclerophyll forest, DSF;
cool temperate wet sclerophyll forest, WSF; temperate grassy
woodland, TGW; arid woodland, AW). Strong limitation by B and
A + S is indicated by vertical and horizontal hatching, respectively,
while the unhatched area indicates weak limitation (see Fig. 1).
result, fire regimes in woodlands dominated by grass/
herbaceous fuels will be governed by fluctuations in biomass
growth. Moisture variation will therefore strongly influence fire
regimes.
By contrast, in forested systems where woody litter fuels are
prominent, regular patterns of fuel dynamics occur that are
governed by rapid accumulation after fire (Walker, 1981; Raison
et al., 1983). The amount of fuel is therefore less tightly coupled
to short-term moisture variations. Sufficient litter is usually
present for propagation of fire at most times except for very
soon after fire (i.e. fuel is non-limiting). Fire will therefore be
limited primarily by fluctuations in availability to burn and
propagation potential, governed, respectively, by drought and
ambient weather at the time of ignition.
Ecosystems can be arranged (Figs 1 & 3) along axes represent-
ing either biomass/fuel (switch B) limitation, or a combination
of fuel availability (switch A) plus fire spread potential (a func-
tion of ambient weather, switch S). This latter combination is
consistent with fire danger rating systems [e.g. the McArthur
Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI); Catchpole, 2002]. Thus high
values of fire danger indices, conducive to a rapid rate of spread
and large area burned, are improbable without both severe
drought and ambient weather (e.g. Bradstock et al., 2009).
This approach contrasts the sensitivity of fire regimes to rela-
tive effects of biomass growth (B) on the one hand and fire
danger (A + S) on the other (Fig. 3). These represent, respec-
tively, the indirect (‘bottom-up’) or direct (‘top-down’) influ-
ence of climate (Fig. 2). Predictions of potential fire regimes (i.e.

the limits of average interfire interval) can be made, with real-
ization of potential being dependent on the rate of ignition (i.e.
the fourth ‘switch’: Fig. 2).
Fire regime potential was explored for five case studies
(Table 1) covering a gradient of tree cover spanning high to low
moisture (Figs 1 & 3) and thus degree of limitation by either
woody litter or herbaceous fuels. The case studies are: tropical
open forest (TF); arid woodlands (AW); temperate grassy wood-
lands (TGW); dry sclerophyll shrubby forests (DSF); wet scle-
rophyll forests (WSF). These occur across gradients of latitude,
climate (monsoonal tropics to cool temperate) and available
moisture. Potential fire regimes in forested communities (tree
cover > 30%) tend to be limited primarily by occurrence of
severe fire weather. The degree of limitation increases with
increasing moisture (Fig. 1 & 3). By contrast, potential fire
regimes in woodland communities tend to be limited primarily
by biomass growth. Limitation increases with decreasing mois-
ture (Figs 1 & 3). Communities with ‘intermediate’ tree cover
(i.e. c. 30%) may be particularly susceptible to factors that alter
the balance between woody overstorey and grass/herb understo-
rey (e.g. a change from limitation by B to A or S or vice versa).
The case studies also represent the influence of particular
plant species/functional types and land-use context (e.g. pasto-
ral to urban hinterlands). Examples are discussed using relevant
data from a typical region in each instance (Table 1).
Potential fire regimes
TF represents grassy, open forests (i.e. tree foliar cover > 30%;
Table 1) that occur in high-rainfall, coastal regions of northern
Australia. These are the mesic variant of tropical savannah
forests and woodlands (Williams et al., 2002) where moisture
availability is sufficient to support relatively high tree cover,
consisting of a mix of evergreen, deciduous and semi-deciduous
species. TF represents an extreme where the influences of both
available biomass (B) and fire danger (A + S) converge so that
neither influence is strongly limiting (Fig. 3). Frequency of
occurrence of conditions conducive to major fires is close to
annual, due to the effects of both regular annual prolonged wet
and dry seasons on grass/herb fuels under a monsoonal climate.
The wet season provides a concentrated moist period for rapid
growth of grasses, while the dry season provides prolonged
annual drought (A) and lengthy sequences of days with fire
weather (S) suitable for the rapid spread of large, relatively
intense fires (Table 1; Williams et al., 2002). Annual grasses such
as Saga spp. (= Sorghum; Williams et al., 2002) are suited to these
conditions and therefore have the potential to control fire
regimes and effectively usurp the influence of litter accumula-
tion from trees.
In contrast to TF, AW and TGW represent differing degrees of
temporal limitation in herbaceous biomass growth (Table 1,
Fig. 3a). As in TF, severe fire weather in AW and TGW is non-
limiting or weakly limiting (Table 1, Fig. 3b). Variants of AW
cover a vast expanse of the continent. The ground layer consists
of perennial hummock grasses (e.g. Triodia and Plectrachne
spp.) or tussock grasses (e.g. Aristida and Eragrostis spp.) and
Global Ecology and Biogeography, 19, 145–158, © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd
A biogeographic model of fire in Australia
ephemeral herbs fuels are common (Allan & Southgate, 2002;
Hodgkinson, 2002). The tree layer, often dominated by Acacia
spp. (Hodgkinson, 2002), is sparse or clumped. Herbaceous
cover (perennial and ephemeral) can be sparse in dry times, but
also grows vigorously in response to rain (Griffin et al., 1983;
Allan & Southgate, 2002; Southgate & Carthew, 2007). Time
since fire, in interaction with rainfall, also affects herbage cover,
though these effects can be negated after high rainfall (Allan &
Southgate, 2002; Southgate & Carthew, 2007). High-rainfall
events therefore irregularly provide fuel connectivity by stimu-
lating herbage which is otherwise absent or slow to develop (a
‘fuel irruption’; Southgate & Carthew, 2007). Such events occur
at decadal to multidecadal recurrence intervals with consequent
effects on fire regime potential (Allan & Southgate, 2002;
Hodgkinson, 2002).
TGW is intermediate between TF and AW, reflecting moisture
status in deep, well-drained soils on the margins of inland,
semi-arid environments (Beadle, 1981; Table 1). Perennial and
ephemeral grasses/herbs are prominent, and Eucalyptus, Callitris
and Allocasuarina spp. are common as trees. Herbage growth
may fluctuate with level of stocking of native and domestic
grazing animals and occasional prolonged drought (Noble &
Grice, 2002; Prober et al., 2007). Recovery after fire is relatively
rapid (e.g. 1–5 years), depending on fluctuations in rainfall
(Prober et al., 2007, 2008). The potential for fire is therefore high
(e.g. 1–5-year frequency; Fig. 3), because temporal biomass
limitation is weak (i.e. biomass fluctuations are rapid and
regular). The balance between C3 (e.g. Poa) and C4 (e.g.
Themeda) grasses in these systems may be important (Prober
et al., 2007), with biomass and spatial cover possibly declining if
C4 abundance declines.
In comparison to TF (biomass non-limiting), B in the tem-
perate forest examples (DSF, WSF) is weakly limiting due to the
rate of post-fire accumulation of litter. There is sufficient surface
litter for propagation of fire at 1–3 years in severe weather
(Raison et al., 1983; Morrison et al., 1996; Huston, 2003). Quasi-
equilibrium surface fuel loads are reached after about 10 years
post-fire (Walker, 1981; Raison et al., 1983). Fire potential there-
fore tends to be limited by fire weather (Fig. 3b).
In DSF, days of extreme fire danger (i.e. FFDI > 49) are rela-
tively rare (e.g. an average of 1 day per year) in mainland south-
eastern and south-western regions (Gill & Moore, 1990; McCaw
& Hanstrum, 2003; Lucas et al., 2007). In south-eastern DSF,
characterized by non-seasonal rainfall, regular El Niño–
Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related droughts (e.g. 5-year fre-
quency) may provide severe fire danger conditions suitable for
major fires (Verdon et al., 2004; Nicholls & Lucas, 2007; Table 1).
South-western DSF occurs in a mediterranean climate, with a
long annual summer dry period. Severe fire danger episodes are
regularly generated (e.g. 5-year frequency) by strong cyclonic
activity to the north (McCaw & Hanstrum, 2003; Table 1).
Extreme fire danger is rarer in southern Tasmania (Lucas et al.,
2007; Table 1), but a positive association between summer
dryness and area burned has been shown in western WSF
regions (Nicholls & Lucas, 2007). The potential for major fires is
therefore regular in mainland DSF (5–10-year intervals, Fig. 3b)
149
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Table 1 Attributes of case studies that affect fire regimes in differing Australian ecosystems.
Indicative bioregion and
agro-climatic zone
(Hutchinson et al., 2005)
Present land uses
Mean annual rainfall (mm)
(Weather station)
Rainfall seasonality.
Months of highest and lowest
mean rainfall (mm)
Canopy tree cover/
composition
Understorey structure/
composition
Average number of Very
High to Extreme fire weather
days per annum (weather
station)
Fire season
Present ignition sources
Present range of interfire
intervals (years)
Global Ecology and Biogeography, 19, 145–158, © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Temperate grassy woodlands Temperate dry sclerophyll Cool temperate wet
Tropical open forest (TS) (TGW) Arid woodlands (AW) forests (DSF) sclerophyll forests (WSF)
R. A. Bradstock
Arnhem Coast; Central New South Wales–south-western slopes and MacDonnell Ranges Sydney basin – warm, wet (F3). Long hot Tasmanian west, cold (B2).
Arnhem. Hot, seasonally Brigalow Belt south. Warm, seasonally wet/ Desert – high water summers and mild winters. Very cold winters with short
wet/dry (I1) dry. Long hot summers and mild winters limitation (G) Jarrah Forest, mediterranean climate warm summers
with significant moisture limits on growth (summer dry season, e.g. Perth E1)
including mediterranean climates (summer
dry season, e.g. Adelaide E1) and
mid-latitude eastern continental climates
with wetter summers and drier winters (e.g.
central New South Wales E3)
Pastoralism, conservation Winter cereals and summer crops, grazing Pastoralism, Urban, conservation reserves, water Forestry, hydroelectricity,
reserves, indigenous conservation, catchments, forestry (south-west), mining conservation reserves
indigenous (south-west)
1539 (Darwin Post 585 (Dubbo Darling St), 279 (Alice Springs 1214 (Sydney Observatory Hill), 1212 (Maydena)
Office) 529 (Adelaide West Terrace) Post Office) 868 (Perth Regional)
Predominantly summer Even seasonal distribution (63 January, 43 Summer peak (43 Late summer–early winter peak (131 June, Winter–early summer peak
(393 January, 1 July). September, Dubbo). January, 9 September) 69 September, Sydney). (128 August, 60 February)
Predominantly winter (72 June, 20 January, Predominantly winter (182 June, 9 January,
Adelaide) Perth)
> 30%, Eucalyptus, 10–30% Eucalyptus, Casuarina, Callitris < 10–30% Acacia 30–70% Eucalyptus, Angophora, Eucalyptus, Nothofagus,
Terminalia Allocasuarina Atherosperma
Annual (e.g. Saga) and Perennial (e.g. Themeda) and annual Hummock grasses Diverse shrubs (e.g. Proteaceae, Fabaceae, Shrubs (sclerophyll and
perennial grasses grasses, herbs and shrubs (e.g. Triodia), tussock Myrtaceae), sedges (e.g. Cyperaceae), mesic)
grasses (Astrebla), graminoids
herbs
> 30 (Jabiru) (Williams 23 (Dubbo), 18.3 (Adelaide) (Lucas et al., > 60 (Alice Springs) 7.6 (Sydney) (Lucas et al., 2007) 2 (Hobart) (Lucas et al.,
et al., 2002) 2007) (Williams et al., 2001) > 10 (Perth) (Gill & Moore, 1990) 2007)
Winter–spring Summer–autumn Spring–summer Spring–early summer (south-east), Late summer–autumn
summer–autumn (south-west)
Predominantly human Predominantly lightning Human and lightning Predominantly human, variable lightning Predominantly lightning
2–5 (Russell-Smith et al., > 10, often multidecadal in length (Hobbs, 10–80 (Allan & 5–15 near urban areas, 10–25 in remote > 20 (Gill & Catling, 2002)
1997, 2007; Williams 2002; Lunt et al. 2006) Southgate, 2002) areas (south-east) (Gill & Moore, 1997;
et al., 2002) Bradstock & Gill, 2001)

and less regular (> 10 years – Fig. 3b) in western Tasmania
(WSF).
Realization of fire regime potential
Ignition rates in TF are currently high, due mainly to anthropo-
genic sources (Russell-Smith et al., 2007), resulting in high-
frequency fire regimes (Table 1). Fire regimes are therefore close
to their potential limit (Fig. 3). Variations in summer rain may
affect the quantity of grass fuels and the length of the dry season,
with high rainfall leading to greater area burned (Harris et al.,
2008). In AW, ignition rates (anthropogenic and lightning) also
appear to be sufficient to saturate opportunities where herba-
ceous fuel, after curing, is non-limiting, leading to episodes of
major fire over vast areas (Heydon et al., 2000; Allan & South-
gate, 2002; Russell-Smith et al., 2007).
By contrast, in TGW fire is often constrained through low
anthropogenic ignitions and a higher level of availability of fire
suppression due to higher population density (e.g. agricultural
holdings and small towns), leading to a long-term absence of
burning in natural fragments (Table 1). In larger non-
fragmented tracts of temperate woodlands, multidecadal fire
regimes predominate under the influence of lightning (Table 1).
Current fire recurrence intervals are therefore considerably
longer than their potential minimum (cf. Fig. 3). High domestic
stocking in many regions has degraded perennial grass popu-
lations (e.g. Noble, 1997; Hobbs, 2002). Replacement by
ephemeral grasses, herbage and woody plants has resulted in
diminished fuel continuity and quantity, enhancing the sensi-
tivity of fire potential to rainfall variations and contributing to a
decrease in ignitions and area burned (Noble & Grice, 2002).
In DSF ignitions are highly varied (Table 1). In some areas of
eastern New South Wales (NSW), for example, anthropogenic
ignition rates (sometimes complemented by lightning) are suf-
ficient to exploit most opportunities for major fires, resulting in
5–10-year fire recurrence intervals at landscape scales (e.g. Brad-
stock & Kenny, 2003), whereas in more remote regions with low
rates of anthropogenic ignition, average interfire intervals may
be > 20 years under the predominant influence of lightning
(Bradstock, 2008). Similar trends apply in other regions such as
south-western Australia (Table 1). Fulfilment of fire regime
potential in DSF is therefore highly variable (Table 1, Fig. 3).
In WSF, lightning ignition rates and anthropogenic ignition
rates are relatively low (e.g. King et al., 2006; Table 1). These may
be insufficient to saturate opportunities for major fires created
by irregular summer drought, resulting in fire regimes of mul-
tidecadal to century-scale frequency (Table 1, Fig. 3). Limitation
of fire regimes by ignition (I) may be generally more common
with increasing moisture in forested communities. The degree of
limitation will also depend on rates of human ignition as a
function of context (e.g. proximity to towns/cities; Bradstock &
Gill, 2001).
Fire regimes resulting from any particular combination of B,
A, S and I will affect the relative proportions of plant functional
types in landscapes, given inherent life-history and regeneration
attributes. In turn, this may further influence the size of fires if
Global Ecology and Biogeography, 19, 145–158, © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd
A biogeographic model of fire in Australia
fuel characteristics (i.e. flammability) differ among available
functional types (fuel species). Bowman (2000) postulated that
alternative states of flammability (potential dominance by dif-
fering fuel species) exist in some Australian ecosystems. Present
patterns of fire regimes could reflect such ‘flammable feedback’,
in interaction with the influences outlined above.
For this to occur, alternative fuel species must have the poten-
tial to occupy large expanses of habitat in order to influence fuel
connectivity and fire regimes. Such potential is poorly under-
stood; hence the degree to which ‘flammable feedback’ is cur-
rently driving selection between alternative fuel species is
unknown. The availability of species in differing ecosystems not
only reflects current conditions (soils and climate) but also phy-
logenetic legacies and the varying Quaternary influences of
people (ignitions and species introductions). Nonetheless, land-
scape flammability may be altered by the introduction of new
functional types in interaction with future changes to habitat
(Fig. 2).
GL O B AL C HANGE EF F EC TS
Influences of global change on fire regimes are potentially varied
(Figs 2, 4 & 5), due to the complexity of underlying processes.
The influence of climatic change can be distinguished from
other influences such as elevated CO2 and land use (Figs 2, 4 &
5). Climate change has the potential to affect B, A, S and I
(Fig. 2), with changes in available moisture (via rainfall, tem-
perature, evaporation) directly affecting B and A, while changes
to temperature and wind will affect S. Elevated CO2 may mostly
affect B and possibly A, through alteration of the growth and
competitive performance of plant functional types. Human
a) Effect of biomass growth (B)
e TGW AW cg
1 5 10 100
Potential IFI (years)
b) Effect of fire weather (A+S)
AW
f TGW
1 5 10 100
Potential IFI (years)
Figure 4 Effects of global change on the interfire interval (IFI) in
woodlands (temperate grassy woodland, TGW; arid woodland,
AW) via changes to (a) biomass growth, B, and (b) fire weather,
A+S. Arrows indicate the direction of effects on potential and
current fire regimes. Symbols indicate the effects of climate
change (fire danger, f; grass/herb growth, g), elevated CO2 (c) and
exotic species (e).
151
R. A. Bradstock
a) Effect of biomass growth (B)
WSF
c li
DSF
e TF cg
1 5 10 100
Potential IFI (years)
b) Effect of fire weather (A+S)
TF f DSF WSF
1 5 10 100
Potential IFI (years)
Figure 5 Effects of global change on the interfire interval (IFI) in
forests (tropical forest, TF; temperate dry sclerophyll forest, DSF;
cool temperate wet sclerophyll forest, WSF) via changes to (a)
biomass growth, B, and (b) fire weather, A+S. Arrows indicate the
direction of effects on potential and current fire regimes. Symbols
indicate the effects of climate change (fire danger, f; grass/herb
growth, g; litter fuel accumulation, li), elevated CO2 (c) and exotic
species (e).
activity can affect B and A via the introduction of new plant
functional types. Activities such as grazing and clearing may
directly affect B, while there is ever-present potential for human
activity to affect ignition (I).
Responses of differing ecosystems can therefore be expected
to vary according to the balance of these influences and the
nature of fire regime limitation in each instance. Woodlands
should inherently be sensitive to factors which affect B whereas
forests should be primarily sensitive to factors influencing A
and S.
Climate change effects
In woodlands, changes in available moisture have the potential
to affect B. Rainfall at stations relevant to the AW and TGW case
studies is predicted to either increase or decrease under a range
of 2070 scenarios (CSIRO, 2007). The median predictions for
the case-study stations (Table 2) are for a decrease in all cases.
The consequent decline in available moisture will be exacer-
bated by predicted increases in evaporation in all cases (Table 2).
Increases in summer rainfall and various levels of decrease in
cooler season rainfall are generally predicted. Consequent
changes to fuel (B; Table 2, Fig. 4b) may include decreased grass/
herbage in AW and TGW. Increases in summer rain could favour
the growth of the important C4 grass component in these cases,
particularly in non-tropical environments (Murphy & Bowman,
2007). While fire danger may tend to increase in these regions
due to climate change (Table 2), such effects may be less signifi-
cant due to inherent fuel limitation in woodlands (i.e. fire
152 Global Ecology and Biogeography, 19, 145–158, © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd
weather non-limiting). Thus there is potential for area burned to
either increase or decrease in woodlands due to effects on B but
the balance of these effects suggests a decline (Fig. 4).
By contrast, forests are expected to be sensitive to changes in
fire danger and frequency of severe drought under climate
change (A + S; Fig. 5b). For example, the recent succession of
major fire seasons in southern Australia (Ellis et al., 2004;
Bradstock, 2008) is coincident with a prolonged period of severe
drought and elevated fire danger (Lucas et al., 2007). General
increases in future drought and fire danger indices are predicted
in most forested regions (Table 2) but the magnitude of pre-
dicted change is variable. Hennessy et al. (2005) and Lucas et al.
(2007) predicted substantial increases in drought frequency and
days of very high to extreme fire danger across broad regions of
the south-eastern mainland but very little change for southern
Tasmania (Hobart; Table 2). These studies predict an increase in
severity of drought and fire danger, rather than a change in
drought frequency, as they utilize the current pattern of daily
weather as their basis. Changes to ENSO severity are predicted
(e.g. CSIRO, 2007) but details of potential changes in ENSO
frequency are lacking. These could be crucial to changes in fire
activity in many forested regions. Current estimates of change to
fire danger may therefore underestimate the potential for
climate change to alter fire regimes.
Declining moisture may result in reduced rates of litter fuel
accumulation in DSF and WSF (Fig. 5a, Table 2) as demon-
strated by comparative trends in litter fuel accumulation under
differing present-day moisture scenarios (Walker, 1981; Raison
et al., 1983; Huston, 2003). Such effects may tend to reduce area
burned. Notwithstanding this possibility, the prognosis for
forests is for increasing area burned due to effects of elevated fire
danger. The TF case study may be an exception, due to the weak
limiting effects of both fuel and fire weather. The potential for
climate change to affect either of these influences is more con-
strained; however, a reduction in grass growth due to drying
(Table 2, Fig. 5a) has the potential to decrease area burned
(Harris et al., 2008).
There are few detailed predictions of changes to ignition rates
from lightning under climate change (e.g. Hennessy et al., 2005).
Earlier work suggests that there may be a trend for increasing
lightning ignitions (Price & Rind, 1994; Goldammer & Price,
1998) due greater atmospheric instability under global
warming.
Other global change effects
Changes to fire regimes stemming from new plant functional
types, altered plant growth, land use and ignition rates range
from those that are well known (e.g. the effects of exotic grasses)
to speculative and highly uncertain effects (e.g. the conse-
quences of elevated CO2).
In TF and AW there is evidence that new plant species (exotic
grasses) may affect fire regimes. In TF, the introduction of
gamba grass (Andropogon gayanus), an African exotic, has
resulted in a dramatic elevation of fuel loads and consequent fire
intensity (Rossiter et al., 2003). The rate of expansion of gamba
 Table 2 Global change scenarios in case studies in differing Australian ecosystems.

Temperate grassy
woodlands Temperate dry sclerophyll Cool temperate wet
Global change attribute Tropical open forest (TF) Arid woodlands (AW) (TGW) forests (DSF) sclerophyll forests (WSF)

Rainfall (% change) -1 -9 to -17 -4 to -7 -4 to -8 -3 to -6

-7 to -13* -11 to -19†
Temperature (°C change) +1.7 to +3.2 +1.9 to +3.7 +1.7 to +3.3 +1.6 to +3.0 +1.1 to +2.1
+1.5 to +2.8* +1.4 to +2.7†
Evaporation (% change) +5 to +10 +4 to +7% + 4 to +9 +5 to +9 +5 to +10
+3 to +6* +4 to +7†
Fire danger (very high to extreme days Increase‡ Increase‡ +4.4 to +20.8§ + 0.4 to 6.6 (Sydney)§ 0 to +0.2 (Hobart)§
year–1) +1.6 to +11.5*§ Increase likely‡ (Perth)
Sensitivity (direction of change in mass) of Annual grasses Perennial grasses and Perennial grasses and Woody plant litter and shrub crowns Woody plant litter
main fuel types to: (1) climate change and (1) decrease annual herbs/grasses annual herbs/grasses (1) decrease (1) no change
(2) elevated CO2 (2) decrease (1) decrease (1) decrease (2) increase (2) decrease

Global Ecology and Biogeography, 19, 145–158, © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd
(2) decrease (2) decrease
Woody plant litter
(1) decrease
(2) increase
New plant functional types Gamba grass Buffel grass Tree plantations Exotic grasses – mediterranean areas
Trend in ignitions +Anthropogenic -Anthropogenic +Anthropogenic +Anthropogenic

Climatic predictions are 2070 90p scenarios from CSIRO (2007) for Darwin (TF), Alice Springs (AW), Dubbo (TGW), Adelaide* (TGW mediterranean), Sydney (DSF), Perth† (DSF mediterranean) and Hobart
(WSF).
Fire danger scenarios are based on Williams et al. (2001)‡ and Lucas et al. (2007)§ for 2050.
A biogeographic model of fire in Australia

153
R. A. Bradstock
grass is rapid in places (e.g. the Darwin hinterland), though the
bulk of TF remains unaffected. The potential for further spread
and consequent changes to fire regimes across northern Austra-
lia is high. This situation is paralleled in arid areas of northern
and central Australia (AW) by buffel grass (Pennisetum ciliare;
Clarke et al., 2005). This species has high drought tolerance, thus
providing levels of biomass and spatial connectivity that may
exceed that contributed by native grasses and herbage (Clarke
et al., 2005).
Reafforestation of agricultural land in the south (TGW and
some DSF regions) for timber, paper or fuel, carbon credits,
salinity control and habitat restoration (e.g. exotic conifers –
Pinus spp.; native and exotic Eucalyptus spp.) may enhance land-
scape surface fuel connectivity, particularly in heavily frag-
mented landscapes, where cleared land may otherwise be
seasonally fuel free due to cropping and/or grazing. Further
fragmentation of natural vegetation through urbanization and
agriculture may counteract such trends.
Elevated atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide may
differentially affect plant growth, via enhanced effects on woody
species relative to herbs – particularly C4 grasses (Wang, 2007;
Osborne, 2008). Such effects may be dependent on water and
nutrient availability, which may be particularly important in
Australia, given the predominant low-fertility soils and aridity
(Hughes, 2003; Steffen & Canadell, 2005).
Elevated CO2 could affect woodlands and TF by altering the
balance between grasses, herbs, shrubs and trees (e.g. Banfai &
Bowman, 2005; Berry & Roderick, 2006). Major changes in
grass/tree ratios in southern African savannas, with resultant
effects on fire regimes (i.e. area burned positively related to grass
cover), are postulated to be driven by fluxes in atmospheric CO2
concentration (Bond et al., 2003). Increases in tree and shrub
density at the expense of grass/herb cover are implicated in
historical declines in area burned in TGW (e.g. Noble, 1997;
Noble & Grice, 2002). Elevated CO2 may increase accumulation
of forest litter fuels via an increase in growth and accession of
litter. Increases in the C : N ratio of leaves (reduced palatability
for vertebrate and invertebrate consumers) could slow decom-
position (e.g. Gleadow et al., 1998; Wang, 2007).
Rates of fire incidence are positively related to population
density and proximity to the urban interface (Bradstock & Gill,
2001; Keeley & Fotheringham, 2001). Continuing expansion of
existing major urban centres and population drift from cities to
rural areas may alter ignition patterns in south-eastern and
south-western forested regions in particular (DSF, WSF).
Future trends in fire regimes
Factors that affect the performance of herbaceous/grass func-
tional types (B) will have major effects on Australian fire
regimes, because systems dominated by herbaceous fuels (e.g.
woodlands) cover the bulk of the continent. Given that a range
of effects on herbaceous growth and spatial continuity (B) are
plausible, the potential for major changes to Australian fire
regimes is high. Nonetheless, synergistic effects of all differing
global change factors on fire regimes appear unlikely in many
154 Global Ecology and Biogeography, 19, 145–158, © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd
ecosystems. Instead, global change factors are more likely to have
antagonistic effects (Figs 4 & 5). Both the direction and magni-
tude of changes to Australian fire regimes are therefore uncer-
tain, given the difficulty in quantifying the magnitude of the
vectors.
The outcome for future fire regimes in woodlands (TGW and
AW) will depend largely on the interplay between moisture and
elevated CO2 effects on B. If a decline in moisture occurs as
predicted under the median 2070 scenarios (Table 2) then a
decline in grass/herb biomass will result. This may complement
any negative effect of elevated CO2 on area burned and fire
frequency (Fig. 4). The spread of exotic functional types such as
buffel grass could play a contrary role over significant areas of
AW due to their effect on landscape connectivity (Fig. 4a).
Enhancement of woody plant growth in woodlands may also
be context specific. In arid and semi-arid regions, woody cover is
dominated by Acacia, Casuarina and Callitris species, which
form litter beds of low flammability (Bradstock & Gill, 1993;
Bradstock & Cohn, 2002). In higher-rainfall TGW areas, euca-
lypts with litter beds of high flammability are more prominent.
Negative effects of elevated CO2 on fire, through stimulation of
woody growth, are therefore likely to be more pronounced in
semi-arid and arid woodlands. Resolution of the outcome of
opposing effects of increasing summer rainfall (favourable for
C4 grasses) and elevated CO2 (favourable for woody plants) may
be particularly significant in TGW. In moist TF regions (grassy
woodland/open forest), encroachment of rainforest from fire-
protected enclaves, due to CO2 effects, may also diminish the
area burned.
In contrast to woodlands, the balance between fire weather/
danger effects (A + S) and fuel effects (B) will determine the
nature of future fire regimes in forests (Fig. 5). Because of the
inherent limitation of A + S in forests, predicted increases in fire
danger make an increase in average area burned plausible. Fore-
cast changes in fire danger are conservative and do not account
for crucial changes in major drought frequency that may deter-
mine the magnitude of any forcing of fire regimes by climate
change. Potential increases in ignitions (I) from urban expan-
sion may be synergistic with fire weather effects in many forested
regions.
C O NC L USIO NS
Climate change and elevated CO2 may lead to a decrease in area
burned and fire frequency in Australian systems dominated by
herbaceous fuels, due to effects on the limiting ‘switch’ (B).
Factors such as spread of exotic grasses have the potential to
cause contrary effects in these ecosystems. In forests dominated
by woody, litter fuels, alterations to B through CO2 or other
effects may be less critical than changes to fire danger (A + S).
Climate change therefore has a strong potential to increase area
burned in temperate forested regions through an increase in the
severity of fire danger, including the contribution of drought.
These examples do not represent fire regime trends in all
Australian ecosystems, or all the possible effects of global
change. Further extension and refinement of this approach may

be appropriate, though the adequacy of understanding of fun-
damental processes (e.g. fuel dynamics, fire behaviour, ignition
patterns and sources) may impose constraints. For example,
shrub-dominated communities (e.g. various shrublands, heaths
and shrubby woodlands) are of great significance in terms of
biodiversity and some (e.g. shrubby woodlands in the south-
west) cover an extensive area. Such communities occur across a
range of environments comparable to TGW through to WSF.
Fire regimes in some cases may be governed not only by in situ
processes but also by characteristics of adjacent communities
(e.g. heath patches within tropical savannah or temperate DSF).
Differing approaches may be needed to predict future fire
regimes at this scale. Ultimately, given the complexity of
responses and drivers of fire and potential feedback processes,
appropriate numerical simulation models may be required to
fully explore the problem.
This overview has also focused on factors governing area
burnt by large fires and resultant effects on fire frequency, rather
than effects on fire intensity and season and the detail of spatial
heterogeneity of regimes. Terrain diversity will influence fire size
and spatial patterns of intensity, for example, because of effects
of moisture on fuel availability (A) and rate of spread (S). The
approach could be extended to explore these components of fire
regimes, particularly as information on spatial variation in fire
severity accumulates. While these deficiencies are considerable,
there is sufficient evidence to indicate that variation in the fire
regime among Australian ecosystems can be explained by varia-
tions in the rates of four basic drivers. This provides a basis to
guide the development of quantitative fire regime models in the
future, as well as systematic data collection to document the
nature of the processes that shape these drivers.
The concept of spatial connectivity of the drivers of fire
underpins the ‘four switch’ concept presented here. Further
exploration of the way that landscapes develop ‘flammable con-
nections’ through interactions between fuel, weather and terrain
(Falk et al., 2007) will provide an incisive basis for predicting
and managing future fire regimes.
A C K N O W L ED G E M E N T S
This work was completed with assistance from the Common-
wealth Department of Climate Change as part of a national
assessment of the consequences of climate change for fire and
biodiversity. Input from colleagues engaged on this project is
gratefully acknowledged, with particular thanks to Dick Will-
iams. Penny Watson, Alan Andersen and two referees provided
invaluable comments on the manuscript.
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B IO SK ETC H
Ross Bradstock is Director of the Centre for Environ-
mental Risk Management of Bushfires at the University
of Wollongong. He has research interests in fire ecology,
conservation biology, fire regimes and consequences of
global change. He is an adviser on fire management
policies and practices to land and fire managers.
Editor: Brad Murray