Instituto Tecnológico de Ciudad Juárez

¿Está toda la economía de México en recesión?

Entorno Macroeconó mico

M.C. José Coronado Herrera

Arely Haydee Delgado Hernández
25/02/2011
 IS ALL THE MEXICAN ECONOMY IN RECESSION?
Alberto Calva
Acus Consulting
May 29, 2009

What is a recession? Strictly speaking, and in accordance with the economic theory, a recession
happens when negative growth rates are presented in the gross domestic product (GDP) for two
consecutive quarters. This is, there is a decrease in the economic growth for two
Consecutive quarters. What is the gross domestic product (GDP)? It is the measurement of the
production of goods and services in a country or in a community for a specific period of time. In the
world it is usually measured every quarter, four times a year. It is an economic
of welfare. The GDP is divided into five basic elements (consumption, government expenditure,
investment, exports and imports), it is measured for each state in the country and divided by
industries. This last classification the one used in the analysis presented in this article.

Recession in Mexico?

If we analyze the numbers in Table 3 we can see that the GDP has actually presented decreases in the last two
quarters. This is, Mexico has been in a recession since October 2008 and at least until March 2009.In last year
third quarter the GDP growth was 1.7%, for the fourth quarter it was -1.6%
And in the first quarter of 2009 the growth was -8.2%.

How is the economy classified?

The economy is divided in primary, secondary and tertiary. The primary economy represents approximately
4% of the total economy in Mexico and includes aspects related with agriculture, cattle rising, forestry, fishing
and hunting. The secondary economy represents approximately 31% of the total economy in Mexico and
includes aspects related with mining, electricity, gas, water, construction and manufacturing industry. At last,
the tertiary economy represents approximately65% to the total economy and includes aspects related with
services, such as commerce, transportation, information, professional services, real estate services, educational
services, hotels and restaurants, and government.

Is all the economy in a recession?

If we go back to Table 3 we can see that not all the industries are in recession. Actually, there are some
industries that have not presented a decrease at all in the last quarters. First, almost all the primary economy
has had a positive growth rate. This is agriculture (+4.5% and +1.0% in the last two quarters) and cattle rising
(+2.5% and+2.0%) do not have any negative growth rates. This means this part of the economy is not in
recession. Forestry, fishing and hunting have a mix between negative and positive rates, having had a null
growth in the last three quarters. All this means that agriculture and cattle raising are not in recession, although
they have lower growth rates. Also, this does not mean that in all the states in the country the situation is the
same, or that it is in all kinds of farming or cattle. But it does mean that in average this is the behavior in the
country. The other three industries that do not have a negative growth rate in the last three quarters are in the
tertiary economy: media (+6.0%and +3.7%), corporate and business management (+8.8% and +3.6%) and
educational services (+0.1% and +0.7%).There are other industries that, in spite they are not in recession
because they do not have two consecutive quarters with decrease, they do have one of them with a negative
rate. On the other side, there are industries that have been more affected by the crisis than others. Among the
most affected we have the manufacturing industries (decreases in the last two quarters of -4.9% and
-13.8%),commerce (-4.8and -17.2%), construction(-4.4% and -7.7%), transportation, postal service and
 warehousing (-2.8% and -10.3%), financial services and insurance (-6.0% and -4.3%), and hotels and
restaurants(-3.3% and -7.8%).

It’s worth saying that these figures are an average of the Mexican economy, but each figure doesn’t mean that
all businesses in this industry have to have problems, neither that these decreases are similar in all the states in
the country or in every community.
These figures simply give us an idea of a general growth trend. And the manufacturing industries?
In Table 4 we can see the detail for the manufacturing industries (21 concepts).Here, only two industries
present positive growth rates in the last two quarters: food industry (+0.2% and +0.1%) and beverage and
tobacco industry (+1.7% and +0.3%).Almost all of the other industries are Technically in recession. The most
affected industries are: production of fabric inputs(-14.7% and -12.2% in the last two quarters),fabrics
manufacturing (-7.7% and -7.8%),cloth manufacturing (-6.0% and -10.9%),manufacturing of leather products
(-7.2%and -16.8%), wood industry (-7.7% and -10.9%), plastic industry (-7.4% and -11.9%),basic metallic
industries (-8.1% and -26.4%),manufacturing of metallic products (-8.3%and -16.8%), manufacturing of
machinery and equipment (-3.3% and -21.5%),manufacturing of computers and equipment(-15.6% and
-29.0%), manufacturing of transportation equipment (-9.0% and -38.3%) y manufacturing of furniture (-
12.4%and -10.7%).
 ¿Está toda la economía de México en recesión?

Entorno Macroeconó mico

Primero creo que no todos los sectores se ven afectados de la misma manera por la disminución de
velocidad de la economía. Hay sectores más afectados y otros menos. Por otro lado, el efecto puede
ser distinto al efecto o síntoma reflejado en cada empresa y en cada estado o comunidad del país.
Segundo, aunque esperamos que el primer trimestre de 2009 pudiera haber sido el peor en esta
recesión, esto no implicaba que la recesión pudiera tocar fondo en todas las industrias el mismo
tiempo.
Tercero, me parece importante insistir y no olvidar que las recesiones se provocan porque la
población deja de consumir, porque deja de producir entre otras distintas razones.
Esto quiere decir que si queremos salir más Rápido de esta situación, la población en su conjunto
deberíamos de salir a gastar productos dentro del país y con esto reactivar la economía. Esta
coordinación en su conjunto es claramente difícil de llevar a cabo.

Estamos viviendo una crisis de confianza a nivel mundial. Como dice el dicho 'el miedo no anda en
burro'. Como en muchos casos cuando hay cualquier tipo de crisis el 'por si acaso' hace que la crisis
salga de proporción. Esto es básicamente lo que está pasando. El miedo de muchos inversionistas
está haciendo que se propague esta crisis como un virus a nivel mundial. Ya se contagio Europa y
Asia. Ya está afectando a México y aun cuando nuestros gobernantes lo nieguen esto llegara a
pegarnos (ojo lo niegan no por incompetentes sino porque lo peor que pueden hacer es propagar el
pánico). ¿Qué tan grande será el golpe? Mucho dependerá de lo que hagan los gobiernos de países
más grandes del mundo y la rapidez con la que lo hagan y que tan rápido esto impacte a nivel
empresas y personas.

Los gobiernos a nivel mundial están tomando acción para evitar que las economías se frenen y darle
garantía y seguridad a personas físicas como todos nosotros. Primero es la seguridad de que los
ahorros que tenemos en los bancos estén seguros y que si el banco quiebra no desaparezca este
dinero. Los gobiernos están dando esta seguridad a las personas garantizando los depósitos en los
bancos, o en algunos países aumentando el monto del seguro de depósitos.

Es importante entender que por el tamaño de la economía de México, por desgracia no podemos
hacer mucho para revertir lo que está sucediendo a nivel mundial. Como país somos insignificantes
para el problema mundial. Sin embargo el impacto de lo que pasa nos afecta. Por más que algunos
políticos pueden echarle la culpa al gobierno actual, es solo propaganda política ya que el gobierno
está actuando de la mejor manera posible. Para darnos una idea de las diferencias de tamaño, en
EUA se fue a la quiebra la Casa de Bolsa Lehman Brothers. Esta casa de bolsa era más grande que
todo el sistema financiero mexicano junto.

Los gobiernos están reaccionando por que entienden la magnitud del problema. Sus acciones
tardaran en dar resultados (es como la medicina al enfermo, no es inmediata la reacción). En el ínter
tenemos que prevenirnos como personas.

http://www.acus.com.mx/art-corp/art-0905-economia-mexico-recesion.pdf