Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam Abandons Zero
COVID Infections Policy
October 1, 2021

We request your evaluation of Vietnam's recent change in policy on the cornavirus

pandemic ending its Zero-COVID approach,
Q1. Why did Vietnam's policy towards COVID-19 change, with it abandoning its zero-
COVID tactic?
ANSWER: Vietnam abandoned its Zero Covid-19 policy as a result of a
recommendation from the National Steering Committee for COVID-19 Prevention and
Control that this goal was unrealistic if not impossible to achieve while the Delta
variant was active. Another factor weighing on this decision was the financial impact
of a prolonged lockdown on the economy and associated mental health issues.
This decision was made as the latest data showed a decline in new infections and
deaths nationwide.
Q2. What have been the public health implications of this change of approach?
ANSWER: Public health authorities in a variety of countries report that persons who
have not received a COVID vaccination are not only more likely to catch the Delta virus
but become serious ill as well. Unvaccinated persons who contract COVID-19 have
higher morbidity rates than those who have been vaccinated. Those who have been
vaccinated are less likely to suffer serious illness. Nonetheless, persons who have been
vaccinated can catch the COVID-19 virus and pass it on to unvaccinated persons or
persons at high risk.
The major change with public health implications for Vietnam has been the decision
to drastically step up the acquisition of COVID vaccines and to inoculate as many
persons as possible as well as administer a booster shot.
Under the new approach, Vietnam will step up efforts to test for the virus in high risk
areas. There will also be a progressive lifting of restrictions imposed during lockdowns
to resume normal life and to kick-start economic activity. There will still be regulations
in place concerning weaking masks, social distancing, and the resumption of schools
and activities involving large numbers of people.
In August, Vietnam launched a highly successful international COVID diplomacy
campaign that netted 55 million vaccine doses. As of late September, Vietnam has
only inoculated just under ten percent of its population; but in Ho Chi Minh City, a
major hot spot for the Delta variant, the Ministry of Health reported that 98.5 percent
 2

of the population of nearly ten million has received one COVID jab and of this number
48 precent have received a booster.
Q3. Were there any political motivations behind this change of approach (to dispel
public frustrations over the strict lockdowns)? And how has the acceptance that
Vietnam cannot have a zero-COVID approach affected the Vietnam Communist Party’s
reputation?
ANSWER: As Brantly Womack noted many years ago, Vietnam’s one-party system is a
“mass regarding” regime. Leaders of the Vietnam Communist Party, particularly the
party boss in Ho Chi Minh City, would have been aware of public frustrations with
severe aspects of the lockdown in Ho Chi Minh City and southern provinces. National
and local leaders would have been pragmatic in responding to these frustrations as
we can see in the lifting of restrictions currently underway in Ho Chi Minh City.
It should be noted that this was a regional not national development. It is more likely
that the individual citizen who was frustrated at the strict lockdown would have
blamed individual local leaders and institutions and not the national Vietnam
Communist Party per se. The central government, and the Ministry of Public Health,
have been quite transparent in reporting daily on the progress of the Delta variant and
the impact of public health measures.
It should be noted in this respect that the new Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh
reportedly linked local officials from 10,400 communes/wards/townships, 705
districts, and 63 provinces and municipalities via video link to a meeting of the
National Steering Committee forCOVID-19 Prevention and Control on 25 September.
Prime Minister Chinh not only instructed these officials on their duties to combat the
coronavirus pandemic but requested that all local governments set up a working
group to facilitate the resumption of economic activities.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam Abandons Zero COVID Infections

Policy,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, October 1, 2021. All background briefs
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