21.

55 BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION 1221

________________________________________________________________________________________________________

4 400 9 36 6
3. 4. 5. , ,
9 2873 7 49 7
1 1 8 7
6. (i ) a = (ii ) , , (iii ) 5 7. 2 5
81 9 9 27
________________________________________________________________________________________________________

21.54 THEORETICAL DISTRIBUTIONS

Frequency distributions can be classified under two heads:
(i) Observed Frequency Distributions.
(ii) Theoretical or Expected Frequency Distributions.
Observed frequency distributions are based on actual observation and experimentation. If a
certain hypothesis is assumed, it is sometimes possible to derive mathematically what the
frequency distribution of a certain universe should be. Such distributions are called Theoretical
Distributions.
There are many types of theoretical frequency distributions, but we shall consider only three
that are of great importance:
(i) Binomial Distribution (or Bernoulli’s Distribution);
(ii) Poisson’s Distribution;
(iii) Normal Distribution.

BINOMIAL (OR BERNOULLI’S) DISTRIBUTION

21.55 BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Let there be n independent trials in an experiment. Let a random variable X denote the
number of successes in these n trials. Let p be the probability of a success and q be that of a
failure in a single trial so that p + q = 1. Let the trials be independent and p be constant for every
trial.
Let us find the probability of r successes in n trials.
r successes can be obtained in n trials in nCr ways.
∴ P(X = r ) = n Cr P (S S S) . . . S F F F ... F
r times ( n − r ) times

= Cr P(S)P(S) . . . P(S) P(F)P(F) . . . P(F)

n

r factors ( n − r ) factors

= Cr p p p . . . p
n
q q q ... q
r factors ( n − r ) factors
n−r
= Cr p q
n r

Hence P(X = r) = nCr qn–rpr, where p + q = 1 and r = 0, 1, 2, . . . , n.

The distribution (1) is called the binomial probability distribution and X is called the
binomial variate.
Note 1. P(X = r) is usually written as P(r).
1222 CHAPTER 21: STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY
________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Note 2. The successive probabilities P(r) in (1) for r = 0, 1, 2, . . . , n are

n
C0qn, nC1qn–1p, nC2qn–2p2, . . . , nCnpn
which are the successive terms of the binomial expansion of (q + p)n. That is why this distribution is called the
“binomial” distribution.
Note 3. n and p occurring in the binomial distribution are called the parameters of the distribution.
Note 4. In a binomial distribution:
(i) n, the number of trials is finite.
(ii) each trial has only two possible outcomes usually called success and failure.
(iii) all the trials are independent.
(iv) p (and hence q) is constant for all the trials.

21.56 RECURRENCE OR RECURSION FORMULA FOR THE BINOMIAL

DISTRIBUTION
In a binomial distribution,
n!
P(r ) = n Cr q n − r p r = q n−r p r
(n − r )!r !
n!
P(r + 1) = n Cr +1q n − r −1 p r +1 = q n − r −1 p r +1
(n − r − 1)!(r + 1)!
P(r + 1) (n − r )! r! p
∴ = × ×
P(r ) (n − r − 1)! (r + 1)! q
(n − r ) × (n − r − 1)! r! p ⎛ n−r ⎞ p
= × × ×=⎜ ⎟⋅
(n − r − 1)! (r + 1) × r ! q ⎝ r +1 ⎠ q
n−r p
⇒ P(r + 1) = ⋅ P(r )
r +1 q
which is the required recurrence formula. Applying this formula successively, we can find P(1),
P(2), P(3), . . . , if P(0) is known.
21.57 MEAN AND VARIANCE OF THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
For the binomial distribution, P(r ) = n Cr q n − r p r
n n
Mean μ = ∑ rP(r ) = ∑ r ⋅ n Cr q n − r p r
r =0 r=0
n −1
= 0 + 1⋅ C1qn
p + 2 ⋅ n C 2 q n − 2 p 2 + 3 ⋅ n C3 q n −3 p 3 + . . . + n ⋅ n C n p n
n(n − 1) n − 2 2 n(n − 1)(n − 2) n −3 3
= nq n −1 p + 2 ⋅ q p + 3⋅ q p + . . . + np n
2 ⋅1 3 ⋅ 2 ⋅1
n(n − 1)(n − 2) n −3 3
= nq n −1 p + n(n − 1)q n − 2 p 2 + q p + . . . + np n
2 ⋅1
⎡ (n − 1)(n − 2) n −3 2 ⎤
= np ⎢ q n −1 + (n − 1)q n − 2 p + q p + . . . + p n −1 ⎥
⎣ 2 ⋅1 ⎦
= np ⎡⎣ C0 q + C1q p + C2 q p + . . . + Cn −1 p n −1 ⎤⎦
n −1 n −1 n −1 n−2 n −1 n −3 2 n −1

= np(q + p) n −1 = np (∵ p + q = 1)
21.57 MEAN AND VARIANCE OF THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION 1223
________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Hence the variance of the binomial distribution is np.

n n
Variance σ 2 = ∑ r 2 P(r ) − μ 2 = ∑ [r + r (r − 1)]P(r ) − μ 2
r =0 r=0
n n n
= ∑ rP(r ) + ∑ r (r − 1)P(r ) − μ 2 = μ + ∑ r (r − 1) n Cr q n − r p r − μ 2
r =0 r =0 r=2

(since the contribution due to r = 0 and r = 1 is zero).

= μ + [2 ⋅1 ⋅ n C2 q n − 2 p 2 + 3 ⋅ 2 ⋅ n C3 q n −3 p 3 + . . . + n(n − 1) n Cn p n ] − μ 2
⎡ n(n − 1) n − 2 2 n(n − 1)(n − 2) n −3 3 ⎤
= μ + ⎢ 2 ⋅1 ⋅ q p + 3⋅ 2 ⋅ q p + . . . + n(n − 1) p n ⎥ − μ 2
⎣ 2 ⋅1 3 ⋅ 2 ⋅1 ⎦
= μ + [n(n − 1)q p + n(n − 1)(n − 2)q p + . . . + n(n − 1) p ] − μ
n−2 2 n −3 3 n 2

= μ + n(n − 1) p 2 [q n − 2 + (n − 2)q n −3 p + . . . + p n − 2 ] − μ 2
= μ + n(n − 1) p 2 [ n − 2 C0 q n − 2 + n − 2 C1q n −3 p + . . . + n − 2 Cn − 2 p n − 2 ] − μ 2
= μ + n(n − 1) p 2 (q + p ) n − 2 − μ 2 = μ + n(n − 1) p 2 − μ 2 [∵ q + p = 1]
= np + n(n − 1) p 2 − n 2 p 2 [∵ μ = np ]
= np[1 + (n − 1) p − np ] = np[1 − p ] = npq.
Hence the variance of the binomial distribution is npq.
Standard deviation of the binomial distribution is npq .
Similarly, we can prove that
μ32 (q − p)2 (1 − 2 p )2 μ 1 − 6 pq
β1 = = = ; β 2 = 42 = 3 +
μ23
npq npq μ2 npq
q − p 1− 2 p 1 − 6 pq
Hence γ 1 = β1 = = ; γ 2 = β2 − 3 =
npq npq npq
q− p 1− 2 p
Note. γ 1 = = gives a measure of skewness of the binomial distribution. If p < 1
2 , skewness is
npq npq
1 1
positive, if p > 2 , skewness is negative and if p = 2 , it is zero.
1 − 6 pq
β2 = 3 + gives a measure of the kurtosis of the binomial distribution.
npq

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES

Example 1. One ship out of 9 was sunk on an average in making a certain voyage. What
was the probability that exactly 3 out of a convoy of 6 ships would arrive safely?
1 8 1
Sol. p, the probability of a ship arriving safely = 1 − = ; q = , n = 6
9 9 9
6
⎛1 8⎞
Binomial distribution is ⎜ + ⎟
⎝9 9⎠
3 3
⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎛ 8 ⎞ 10240
The probability that exactly 3 ships arrive safely = 6 C3 ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ = .
⎝9⎠ ⎝9⎠ 96
1224 CHAPTER 21: STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY
________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Example 2. Assume that on the average one telephone number out of fifteen called between
2 P.M. and 3 P.M. on week-days is busy. What is the probability that if 6 randomly selected
telephone numbers are called (i) not more than three, (ii) at least three of them will be busy?
Sol. p, the probability of a telephone number being busy between 2 P.M. and 3 P.M. on
week-days = 151
6
1 14 ⎛ 14 1 ⎞
q = 1 − = , n = 6; Binomial distribution is ⎜ + ⎟
15 15 ⎝ 15 15 ⎠
The probability that not more than three will be busy
= p(0) + p (1) + p(2) + p(3)
6 5 4 2 3 3
⎛ 14 ⎞ ⎛ 14 ⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎛ 14 ⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎛ 14 ⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞
= C0 ⎜ ⎟ + 6 C1 ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ + 6 C2 ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ + 6 C3 ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟
6

⎝ 15 ⎠ ⎝ 15 ⎠ ⎝ 15 ⎠ ⎝ 15 ⎠ ⎝ 15 ⎠ ⎝ 15 ⎠ ⎝ 15 ⎠
(14) 3
2744 × 4150
= 6
[2744 + 1176 + 210 + 20] = = 0.9997
(15) (15)6
The probability that at least three of them will be busy
= p(3) + p(4) + p(5) + p(6)
3 3 2 4 5 6
⎛ 14 ⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎛ 14 ⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎛ 14 ⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎛1⎞
= 6 C3 ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ + 6 C4 ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ + 6 C5 ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ + 6 C6 ⎜ ⎟ = 0.005.
⎝ 15 ⎠ ⎝ 15 ⎠ ⎝ 15 ⎠ ⎝ 15 ⎠ ⎝ 15 ⎠ ⎝ 15 ⎠ ⎝ 15 ⎠
Example 3. Six dice are thrown 729 times. How many times do you expect at least three
dice to show a five or six?
2 1
Sol. p = the chance of getting 5 or 6 with one die = =
6 3
1 2
q = 1 − = , n = 6, N = 729
3 3
since dice are in sets of 6 and there are 729 sets.
6
n ⎛ 2 1⎞
The binomial distribution is N(q + p) = 729 ⎜ + ⎟
⎝ 3 3⎠
The expected number of times at least three dice will show five or six
⎡ 6 ⎛ 2 ⎞ 3 ⎛ 1 ⎞ 3 6 ⎛ 2 ⎞ 2 ⎛ 1 ⎞ 4 6 ⎛ 2 ⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞5 6 ⎛ 1 ⎞ 6 ⎤
= 729 ⎢ C3 ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ + C4 ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ + C5 ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ + C6 ⎜ ⎟ ⎥
⎢⎣ ⎝ 3⎠ ⎝3⎠ ⎝ 3⎠ ⎝3⎠ ⎝ 3 ⎠⎝ 3 ⎠ ⎝ 3 ⎠ ⎥⎦
729
= 6 [160 + 60 + 12 + 1] = 233
3
Example 4. Out of 800 families with 4 children each, how many families would be expected
to have (i) 2 boys and 2 girls (ii) at least one boy (iii) no girl (iv) at most two girls? Assume
equal probabilities for boys and girls.
Sol. Since probabilities for boys and girls are equal
1 1
p = probability of having a boy = ; q = probability of having a girl =
2 2
21.57 MEAN AND VARIANCE OF THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION 1225
________________________________________________________________________________________________________

4
⎛1 1⎞
n = 4, N = 800 ∴ The binomial distribution is 800 ⎜ + ⎟ .
⎝2 2⎠
(i) The expected number of families having 2 boys and 2 girls
2 2
⎛1⎞ ⎛1⎞ 1
= 800 C2 ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ = 800 × 6 × = 300.
4

⎝2⎠ ⎝2⎠ 16
(ii) The expected number of families having at least one boy
⎡ 4 ⎛ 1 ⎞3 ⎛ 1 ⎞ 4 ⎛ 1 ⎞ 2 ⎛ 1 ⎞ 2 4 ⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞3 4 ⎛ 1 ⎞ 4 ⎤
= 800 ⎢ C1 ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ + C2 ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ + C3 ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ + C4 ⎜ ⎟ ⎥
⎣⎢ ⎝2⎠ ⎝2⎠ ⎝2⎠ ⎝2⎠ ⎝ 2 ⎠⎝ 2 ⎠ ⎝ 2 ⎠ ⎦⎥
1
= 800 × [4 + 6 + 4 + 1] = 750.
16
(iii) The expected number of families having no girl, i.e., having 4 boys
4
⎛1⎞
= 800 ⋅ C4 ⎜ ⎟ = 50.
4

⎝2⎠
(iv) The expected number of families having at most two girls, i.e., having at least 2 boys
⎡ 2
⎛1⎞ ⎛1⎞
2
⎛ 1 ⎞⎛ 1 ⎞
3
⎛1⎞ ⎤
4
1
= 800 ⎢ 4 C2 ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ + 4 C3 ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ + 4 C4 ⎜ ⎟ ⎥ = 800 × [6 + 4 + 1] = 550.
⎢⎣ ⎝2⎠ ⎝2⎠ ⎝ 2 ⎠⎝ 2 ⎠ ⎝ 2 ⎠ ⎥⎦ 16

TEST YOUR KNOWLEDGE
1. Ten coins are tossed simultaneously. Find the probability of getting at least seven heads.
2. The probability of any ship of a company being destroyed on a certain voyage is 0.02. The company
owns 6 ships for the voyage. What is the probability of:
(i) losing one ship (ii) losing at most two ships (iii) losing none.
3. The probability that a man aged 60 will live to be 70 is 0.65. What is the probability that out of ten men
now 60, at least 7 would live to be 70?
4. The incidence of occupational disease in an industry is such that the workers have a 20% chance of
suffering from it. What is the probability that out of six workers chosen at random, four or more will
suffer from the disease?
1
5. The probability that a pen manufactured by a company will be defective is 10 . If 12 such pens are
manufactured, find the probability that
(i) exactly two will be defective (ii) at least two will be defective
(iii) none will be defective.
6. If the chance that one of the ten telephone lines is busy at an instant is 0.2
(i) What is the chance that 5 of the lines are busy?
(ii) What is the probability that all the lines are busy?
7. If on an average 1 vessel in every 10 is wrecked, find the probability that out of 5 vessels expected to
arrive, at least 4 will arrive safely.
8. A product is 0.5% defective and is packed in cartons of 100. What percentage contains not more than 3
defectives?
1226 CHAPTER 21: STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY
________________________________________________________________________________________________________

9. A bag contains 5 white, 7 red, and 8 black balls. If four balls are drawn one by one, with replacement,
what is the probability that
(i) none is white (ii) all are white
(iii) at least one is white (iv) only 2 are white?
5
10. In a hurdle race, a player has to cross 10 hurdles. The probability that he will clear each hurdle is 6 .
What is the probability that he will knock down fewer than 2 hurdles?
11. Fit a binomial distribution for the following data and compare the theoretical frequencies with the actual
ones:
x : 0 1 2 3 4 5
f : 2 14 20 34 22 8
12. If the sum of mean and variance of a binomial distribution is 4.8 for five trials, find the distribution.
3
13. If the mean of a binomial distribution is 3 and the variance is 2 , find the probability of obtaining at least
4 successes.
14. In 800 families with 5 children each, how many families would be expected to have (i) 3 boys and 2
girls, (ii) 2 boys and 3 girls, (iii) no girl (iv) at the most two girls. (Assume probabilities for boys and
girls to be equal.)
15. In 100 sets of ten tosses of an unbiased coin, in how many cases do you expect to get
(i) 7 heads and 3 tails (ii) at least 7 heads?
16. The following data are the number of seeds germinating out of 10 on a damp filter for 80 sets of seeds.
Fit a binomial distribution to this data:
x : 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Total
f : 6 20 28 12 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 80
Σ fx
[Hint. Here n = 10, N = 80, Mean = ∴ np = 2.175 etc.]
Σf
17. A bag contains 10 balls each marked with one of the digits 0 to 9. If four balls are drawn successively
(with replacement) from the bag, what is the probability that none is marked with the digit 0?
18. A box contains 100 tickets each bearing one of the numbers from 1 to 100. If 5 tickets are drawn
successively (with replacement) from the box, find the probability that all the tickets bear numbers
divisible by 10.
1
19. The probability that a ball thrown by a child will strike a target is 5 . If six balls are thrown find the
probability that (i) exactly two will strike the target, (ii) at least two will strike the target.
20. In sampling a large number of parts manufactured by a machine, the mean number of defectives in a
sample of 20 is 2. Out of 1000 such samples, how many would be expected to contain at least 3
defective parts?

Answers
11
1. 2. (i) 0.1085 (ii) 0.9997 (iii) 0.8858 3. 0.514
64
53
4. 5. (i) 0.2301 (ii) 0.3412 (iii) 0.2833 6. (i) 0.02579 (ii) 1.024 × 10–7
3125
81 1 175 27
7. 0.91854 8. 99.83 9. (i ) (ii ) (iii ) (iv )
256 256 256 128
9 5
5⎛5⎞ ⎛1+ 4⎞
10. ⎜ ⎟ 11. 100 (0.432 + 0.568)5 12. ⎜ ⎟
2⎝6⎠ ⎝5 5⎠
11
13.
32
21.58 POISSON DISTRIBUTION AS A LIMITING CASE OF BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION 1227
________________________________________________________________________________________________________

14. (i) 250 (ii) 250 (iii) 25 (iv) 400 15. (i) 12 nearly (ii) 17 nearly
4

16. 80 (0.7825 + 0.2175)10 17. ⎛9⎞

⎜ ⎟
⎝ 10 ⎠
18. 0.00001 19. (i) 0.246 (ii) 0.345
20. 323
________________________________________________________________________________________________________

POISSON DISTRIBUTION
21.58 POISSON DISTRIBUTION AS A LIMITING CASE OF BINOMIAL
DISTRIBUTION
If the parameters n and p of a binomial distribution are known, we can find the distribution.
But in situations where n is very large and p is very small, the application of the binomial
distribution is very laborious. However, if we assume that as n → ∞ and p → 0 such that np
always remains finite, say λ , we get the Poisson approximation to the binomial distribution.
Now, for a binomial distribution
P(X = r ) = n Cr q n − r p r
n(n − 1)(n − 2) . . . (n − r + 1)
= × (1 − p ) n − r × p r
r!
n−r r
n(n − 1)(n − 2) . . . (n − r + 1) ⎛ λ ⎞ ⎛λ⎞ λ
= × ⎜1 − ⎟ ×⎜ ⎟ since np = λ ∴ p =
r! ⎝ n⎠ ⎝n⎠ n
n
⎛ λ⎞
1−
λ n(n − 1)(n − 2) . . . (n − r + 1) ⎜⎝ n ⎟⎠
r
= × × r
r! nr ⎛ λ⎞
⎜1 − ⎟
⎝ n⎠
n
⎛ λ⎞
1−
λ ⎛ n ⎞ ⎛ n − 1 ⎞ ⎛ n − 2 ⎞ ⎛ n − r + 1 ⎞ ⎜⎝ n ⎟⎠
r
= ⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟ ...⎜ ⎟×
r ! ⎝ n ⎠ ⎝ n ⎠ ⎝ n ⎠ ⎝ n ⎠ ⎛ λ ⎞r
⎜1 − ⎟
⎝ n⎠
−λ
⎡ − ⎤
n
λ
⎢⎛⎜1 − ⎞⎟ ⎥
λ

⎢ n⎠ ⎥
λ r ⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎛ 2 ⎞ ⎛ r − 1 ⎞ ⎣⎝ ⎦
= ⎜1 − ⎟ ⎜1 − ⎟ . . . ⎜1 − ⎟× r
r! ⎝ n ⎠⎝ n ⎠ ⎝ n ⎠ ⎛ λ⎞
⎜1 − ⎟
⎝ n⎠
As n → ∞ , each of the (r – 1) factors
r
⎛ 1⎞ ⎛ 2⎞ ⎛ r −1 ⎞ ⎛ λ⎞
⎜1 − ⎟ , ⎜1 − ⎟ , . . . , ⎜1 − ⎟ tends to 1. Also ⎜1 − ⎟ tends to 1.
⎝ n⎠ ⎝ n⎠ ⎝ n ⎠ ⎝ n⎠
−λ
x ⎡ n
⎤
⎛ 1⎞ ⎛ λ ⎞ λ
Since Lt ⎜1 + ⎟ = e, the Naperian base. ∴ ⎜1 − ⎟ ⎥
⎢ → e − λ as n → ∞
x →∞
⎝ x⎠ ⎢⎝ n ⎠ ⎥
⎣ ⎦
1228 CHAPTER 21: STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY
________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Hence in the limiting case when n → ∞, we have

λ r e−λ
P(X = r ) =(r = 0, 1, 2, 3, . . . ) . . . (A)
r!
where λ is a finite number = np.
(A) represents the Poisson probability distribution.
Note 1. λ is called the parameter of the distribution.
x x2 xn
Note 2. e = 1 + + . . . + + . . . to ∞.
x

1! 2! n!
Note 3. The sum of the probabilities P(r) for r = 0, 1, 2, 3, . . . is 1, since
−λ −λ −λ
λe λ e λe
2 3
−λ
P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + . . . = e + + + +...
1! 2! 3!
⎛ λ λ λ ⎞
2 3
−λ −λ λ
=e ⎜1 + + + + . . . ⎟ = e ⋅ e = 1.
⎝ 1! 2! 3! ⎠

21.59 RECURRENCE FORMULA FOR THE POISSON DISTRIBUTION

λ r e−λ λ r +1e − λ
For the Poisson distribution, P(r ) = and P(r + 1) =
r! (r + 1)!
P(r + 1) λr ! λ λ
∴ = = or P(r + 1) = P(r ), r = 0, 1, 2, 3, . . .
P(r ) (r + 1)! r + 1 r +1
This is called the recurrence formula for the Poisson distribution.

21.60 MEAN AND VARIANCE OF THE POISSON DISTRIBUTION

λ r e− λ
For the Poisson distribution, P(r ) =
r!
∞ ∞
λ r e− λ
Mean μ = ∑ rP(r ) = ∑ r ⋅
r =0 r=0 r!
∞
λr ⎛ λ2 λ3 ⎞
= e−λ ∑ = e−λ ⎜ λ + + + . . .⎟
r = 1 ( r − 1)! ⎝ 1! 2! ⎠
⎛ λ λ2 ⎞
= λ e− λ ⎜1 + + + . . . ⎟ = λ e− λ ⋅ eλ = λ
⎝ 1! 2! ⎠
Thus, the mean of the Poisson distribution is equal to the parameter λ .
∞ ∞
r 2λ r λ r e− λ ∞
Variance σ 2
= ∑ r P(r ) − μ = ∑ r ⋅
2 2
−λ = e ∑ 2
− λ2 2 −λ

r =0 r =0 r! r =1 r !

⎡12 ⋅ λ 22 ⋅ λ 2 32 λ 3 42 λ 4 ⎤
= e−λ ⎢ + + + + . . .⎥ − λ 2
⎣ 1! 2! 3! 4! ⎦
⎡ 2λ 3λ 2 4λ 3 ⎤
= λ e − λ ⎢1 + + + + . . .⎥ − λ 2
⎣ 1! 2! 3! ⎦
21.60 MEAN AND VARIANCE OF THE POISSON DISTRIBUTION 1229
________________________________________________________________________________________________________

⎡ (1 + 1)λ (1 + 2)λ 2 (1 + 3)λ 3 ⎤

= λ e − λ ⎢1 + + + + . . .⎥ − λ 2
⎣ 1! 2! 3! ⎦
−λ ⎛
⎡ λ λ λ2 3
⎞ ⎛ λ 2λ 2
3λ 3 ⎞⎤
= λ e ⎢⎜ 1 + + + + . . .⎟ + ⎜ + + + . . .⎟⎥ − λ 2
⎣⎝ 1! 2! 3! ⎠ ⎝ 1! 2! 3! ⎠⎦
⎡ ⎛ λ λ2 ⎞⎤
= λ e − λ ⎢ eλ + λ ⎜1 + + + . . . ⎟⎥ − λ 2
⎣ ⎝ 1! 2! ⎠⎦
= λ e [e + λ e ] − λ = λ e ⋅ eλ (1 + λ ) − λ 2 = λ (1 + λ ) − λ 2 = λ.
−λ λ λ 2 −λ

Hence, the variance of the Poisson distribution is also λ .

Thus, the mean and the variance of the Poisson distribution are each equal to the
parameter λ .
Note. The mean and the variance of the Poisson distribution can also be derived from those of the binomial
distribution in the limiting case when n → ∞, p → 0 and np = λ .

Mean of binomial distribution is np.

∴ Mean of the Poisson distribution = Lt np = Lt λ = λ
n→∞ n→∞

Variance of the binomial distribution is npq = np (1 – p)

⎛ λ⎞
∴ Variance of the Poisson distribution = Lt np (1 − p ) = Lt λ ⎜ 1 − ⎟ = λ .
n→∞ n →∞
⎝ n⎠

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES

Example 1. If the variance of the Poisson distribution is 2, find the probabilities for r = 1,
2, 3, 4 from the recurrence relation of the Poisson distribution.
Sol. λ , the parameter of the Poisson distribution = Variance = 2
Recurrence relation for the Poisson distribution is
λ 2
P(r + 1) = P(r ) = P(r ) . . . (1)
r +1 r +1
λ r e− λ e −2
Now P(r ) = ⇒ P(0) = = e −2 = 0.1353
r! 0!
Setting r = 0, 1, 2, 3 in (1), we get
2
P(1) = 2P(0) = 2 × 0.1353 = 0.2706; P(2) = P(1) = 0.2706
2
2 2 2 1
P(3) = P(2) = × 0.2706 = 0.1804; P(4) = P(3) = × 0.1804 = .0902.
3 3 4 2
Example 2. Assume that the probability of an individual coal miner being injured in a
certain way in a mine accident during a year is 1/2400. Use Poisson’s distribution to calculate
the probability that in a mine employing 200 miners there will be at least one such similar
accident in a year.
1 200 1
Sol. Here p= , n = 200; ∴ λ = np = = = 0.083
2400 2400 12
λ r e − λ (0.083) r e −.083
∴ P(r ) = =
r! r!
1230 CHAPTER 21: STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY
________________________________________________________________________________________________________

P(at least one fatal accident) = 1 – P(no fatal accident) (0.083)

(0.083)0 e −0.83
= 1 − P(0) = 1 − = 1 − .92 = 0.08.
0!
Example 3. Data was collected over a period of 10 years, showing the number of injuries
from horse kicks in each of the 200 army corps. The distribution of injuries was as follows:
No. of injuries : 0 1 2 3 4 Total
Frequency : 109 65 22 3 1 200
Fit a Poisson distribution to the data and calculate the theoretical frequencies:
Σ fx 65 + 44 + 9 + 4 122
Sol. Mean of given distribution = = = = 0.61
Σf 200 200
This is the parameter (m) of the Poisson distribution.
mr e− m
∴ Required Poisson distribution is N ⋅ where N = Σ f = 200
r!
(0.61) r (0.61) r (0.61) 2
= 200e −0.61 ⋅ = 200 × 0.5435 = 108.7 × .
r! r! r!
r P(r) Theoretical Frequency
0 108.7 109
1 108.7 × 0.61 = 66.3 66
(0.61) 2
2 108.7 × = 20.2 20
2!
(0.61)3
3 108.7 × = 4.1 4
3!
(0.61) 4
4 108.7 × = 0.7 1
4!
Total = 200

Example 4. A car rental firm has two cars, which it hires out day by day. The number of
requests for a car on each day is distributed as a Poisson distribution with mean 1.5. Calculate
the proportion of days on which neither car is used and the proportion of days on which some
requests are refused. (e–1.5 = 0.2231)
Sol. Since the number of requests for a car is distributed as a Poisson distribution with mean
m = 1.5.
∴ Proportion of days on which neither car is used
= Probability of there being no requests for a car
m0e− m
= = e −1.5 = 0.2231
0!
Proportion of days on which some requests are refused
= probability for the number of requests to be more than two
⎛ me − m m 2 e − m ⎞
= 1 − P( x ≤ 2) = 1 − ⎜ e − m + + ⎟
⎝ 1! 2! ⎠
21.60 MEAN AND VARIANCE OF THE POISSON DISTRIBUTION 1231
________________________________________________________________________________________________________

⎛ (1.5) 2 ⎞
= 1 − e −1.5 ⎜1 + 1.5 + ⎟ = 1 − 0.2231 (1 + 1.5 + 1.125)
⎝ 2 ⎠
= 1 − 0.2231× 3.625 = 1 − 0.8087375 = 0.1912625.
Example 5. Six coins are tossed 6400 times. Using the Poisson distribution, determine the
approximate probability of getting six heads x times.
Sol. Probability of getting one head with one coin = 12 .
6
⎛1⎞ 1
∴ The probability of getting six heads with six coins = ⎜ ⎟ =
⎝ 2 ⎠ 64
1
∴ Average number of six heads with six coins in 6400 throws = np = 6400 × = 100
64
∴ The mean of the Poisson distribution = 100.
Approximate probability of getting six heads x times when the distribution is Poisson
m x e − m (100) x ⋅ e −100
= = .
x! (100)!

TEST YOUR KNOWLEDGE
1. Fit a Poisson distribution to the following:
x : 0 1 2 3 4
f : 192 100 24 3 1
2. If the probability of a bad reaction from a certain injection is 0.001, determine the chance that out of
2000 individuals more than two will get a bad reaction.
3. If X is a Poisson variate such that P(X = 2) = 9P(X = 4) + 90P(X = 6), find the standard deviation.
4. If a random variable has a Poisson distribution such that P(1) = P(2), find
(i) mean of the distribution (ii) P(4)
2
5. Suppose that X has a Poisson distribution. If P(X = 2) = 3 P(X = 1) find, (i) P(X = 0) (ii) P(X = 3).

6. A certain screw-making machine produces on average 2 defective screws out of 100, and packs them in
boxes of 500. Find the probability that a box contains 15 defective screws.
7. The incidence of occupational disease in an industry is such that the workmen have a 10% chance of
suffering from it. What is the probability that in a group of 7, five or more will suffer from it?
8. Fit a Poisson distribution to the following and calculate theoretical frequencies:
x : 0 1 2 3 4
f : 122 60 15 2 1
9. Fit a Poisson distribution to the following data given the number of yeast cells per square for 400
squares:
No. of cells per sq. : 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
No. of squares : 103 143 98 42 8 4 2 0 0 0 0

⎛2⎞
10. Show that in a Poisson distribution with unit mean, mean deviation about mean is ⎜ e ⎟ times the
standard deviation. ⎝ ⎠
1232 CHAPTER 21: STATISTICS AND PROBAB BILITY
________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________

11. In a certain factory

f turningg razor blades, there is a smaall chance of 0.002 for any blade to be defe fective.
The blades are
a supplied inn packets of 10.1 Use the Pooisson distribuution to calculate the approxximate
number of packets containning no defectiive, one defective, and two defective bladdes respectivelly in a
shipment of 10000
1 packets..
12. The probability that a man aged 35 yearss will die before reaching thee age of 40 yeears may be takken as
0.018. Out off a group of 4000 men, now agged 35 years, what
w is the proobability that 2 men will die within
w
the next 5 yeaars?
13. Suppose a bo ook of 585 pagges contains 433 typographicaal errors. If theese errors are randomly
r distrributed
throughout thhe book, what isi the probabiliity that 10 pagees, selected at random,
r will be
b free from errrors?

Answers
0.503 r
e 9.503)
(9
1. 320 × 2. 0.32 3. 1
r!

15 −10
1
2 (10) e
4. (i) 2 (ii) 2
5. (i) e–4 (ii) 4ee–4 6. = 0.035
3e (15)!
7. 0.0008 (0.5))
5

8. 121.36 × , where r = 0,
0 1, 2, 3, 4 9. Theoretiical frequencies are
r! 109, 1422, 92, 40, 13,
11. 9802, 196, 2 Theoretical freequencies are 121,
1 61, 15, 3, 1, 0, 0,
0 0, 0
3, 0 respectiveely
12. 0.01936 13. 0.4795

________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________

N
NORMAL DISTRIB
BUTION
21.61 N
NORMAL DISTRIBUTIO
ON
The normal distribution is a continuouus distributioon. It can bee derived frrom the binoomial
distributiion in the lim
miting case when
w n, the number of trials is veryy large and p, p the probaability
of a success, is close to 12 . The general
g equattion of the noormal distribbution is givven by
2
1 ⎛ x−μ ⎞
1 − ⎜ ⎟
f ( x) = e 2⎝ σ ⎠
σ 2π
where thee variable x can assume all values frrom – ∞ to + ∞ . μ andd σ , called the
t parameteers of
the distriibution, are respectivelyy the mean and the staandard deviaation of the distributionn and
– ∞ < μ < ∞ , σ > 0. x is calleed the normal variate annd f ( x) is called
c the prrobability deensity
function of the normaal distributioon.
If a variable x has the norrmal distribuution with mean m μ andd standard deviation
d σ , we
briefly write
w x : N( μ , σ ).
2

The graph of th he normal distribution

d is called thee
normal curve.
c It is bell-shaped and symmeetrical abouut
the meann μ . The tw wo tails of thhe curve exttend to + ∞
and – ∞ toward the positive and negative directions
d of
the x-axis respectivelly and graduually approach the x-axiss
without ever
e meeting g it. The cuurve is unimodal and thee
mode of the normal distribution coincides with w its meann
21.63 ST TANDARD FOR RM OF THE NO ORMAL DISTR RIBUTION 1233
________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________

μ . The line
l x = μ divides
d the arrea under thee normal currve above thhe x-axis intoo two equal parts.
p
Thus, thee median of the distribuution also coincides withh its mean annd mode. Thhe area undeer the
normal curve
c betweeen any two given ordinnates x = x1 and x = x2 represents thhe probabiliity of
values faalling into thee given interrval. The tottal area undeer the normall curve abovve the x-axis is 1.

21.62 B
BASIC PRO
OPERTIES OF
O THE NOR
RMAL DISTRIBUTION
The probability density funcction of the normal
n distribution is givven by
2
1 ⎛ x−μ ⎞
1 − ⎜
σ ⎟⎠
f ( x) = e 2⎝
σ 2π
∞
(i) f ( x) ≥ 0 (ii)) ∫ −∞
f ( x)dxx = 1,

i.e., the total areea under thee normal curvve above thee x-axis is 1.
(iii)) The normaal distributionn is symmetrrical about itts mean.
(iv)) It is a unim
modal distribuution. The mean,
m mode, and mediann of this distrribution coinncide.

21.63 S
STANDARD
D FORM OF THE NORM
MAL DISTRIBUTION
If X is a normaal random variable
v withh mean μ and
a
standard deviation σ , then thhe random variable Z =
X−μ
h the norrmal distribbution with mean 0 and
has a
σ
standard deviation 1. The random variable Z is called thet
standarddized (or stan ndard ) normmal random variable.
The probability y density function
f foor the norm
mal
distributiion in standaard form is given
g by
1 2
1 −2z
f ( z) = e
2π
It iss free from any
a parameteer. This helpps us to com
mpute areas under
u the noormal probaability
curve by making use of standard tables.
Notee 1. If f ( z ) is the probabilityy density functiion for the norm
mal distributioon, then
z2 z
P(z1 ≤ Z ≤ z2 ) = ∫ F z2 )F( z1 ), where F(zz ) = ∫
f ( z )dz = F( f ( x)dz = P(Z ≤ z )
z1 −∞
The function
f F(z) defined
d above is
i called the disstribution funcction for the noormal distributiion.
Notee 2. The probaabilities P(z1 ≤ Z ≤ z 2 ), P(z1 < Z ≤ z 2 ), P( z1 ≤ Z < z 2 ) annd P( z1 < Z < z 2 ) are all reggarded
to be the saame.
Notee 3. F(− z1 ) = 1 − F( z1 ).

ILLUSTRA
ATIVE EXAMP
PLES

Exaample 1. A sample
s of 1000 dry batterry cells testeed to find thhe length of life produceed the
followingg results:
x = 12 houurs, σ = 3 hoours.
1234 CHAPTER 21: STATISTICS AND PROBAB BILITY
________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________

Assuuming the da ata to be norrmally distriibuted, whatt percentage of battery cells

c are expected
to have liife
(i)) more than 15 hours (ii) lesss than 6 hourrs
(iii)) between 10 0 and 14 houurs?
Sol. Here x deno otes the lenggth of life of dry battery cells.
x − x x − 12
Alsoo z= = .
σ 3
(i) When
W x = 15, z = 1
∴ P( x > 15) = P( z > 1)
= P(0 < z < ∞) − P(0 < z < 1)
= 0.5 − 0.34413 = 0.15877 = 15.87%.
(ii) When
W x = 6,, z = – 2
∴ P( x < 6) = Pz < −2)
= P(0 > 2) = P(0
P < z < ∞) − P(0 < z < 2) 2
= 0.5 − 0.47722 = 0.0228 = 2.28%.
2
(iii) When x = 10, z = − = – 0.67
3
2
Wheen x = 14, z = = 0.67
3
P
P(10 < x < 144)
= P(−0.67 < z < 0.677)
= 2P(0 < z < 0.67) = 2 × 0.2487
= 0.4974 4 = 49.74%.
Exaample 2. In a normal diistribution, 31%3 of the items
i are unnder 45 and 8% are oveer 64.
Find the mean and sttandard deviiation of the distributionn.
Sol. Let x and σ be the meean and S.D. respectivelly.
31%% of the item
ms are under 45.
4
⇒ Area to the left of the orrdinate x = 454 is 0.31
Wheen x = 45, leet z =z1
P(z1 < z < 0) = 0.55 – 0.31 = 0.19
Fromm the tabless, the valuee of z corresponding too this
area is 0.5
∴ z1 = −0.5[ z1 < 0]
Wheen x = 64, leet z = z2
P(0 < z < z2) = 0.55 – 0.08 = 0.42
Fromm the tables,, the value of z corresponnding to thiss area is 1.4.
z2 = 1.4
x−x
Sincce z=
σ
45 − x 64 − x
−0.5 = and 1.44 =
σ σ
⇒ 5 − x = −0.5σ
45 . . . (1)
andd 4 − x = 1.4σ
64 . . . (2)
Subbtracting −19 = −1.9σ ∴ σ = 10
Fromm (1), 5 − x = −0.5 × 10 − 5 ∴ x = 50.
45
21.64 POPULATION OR UNIVERSE 1235
________________________________________________________________________________________________________

TEST YOUR KNOWLEDGE
1. The mean height of 500 students in a certain college is 151 cm and the standard deviation is 15 cm.
Assuming the heights are normally distributed, how many students have heights between 120 and
155 cm?
2. An aptitude test for selecting officers in a bank is conducted on 1000 candidates. The average score is 42
and the standard deviation of score is 24. Assuming normal distribution for the scores, find
(i) The number of candidates whose scores exceed 60
(ii) The number of candidates whose scores lie between 30 and 60.
3. In a normal distribution, 7% of the items are under 35 and 89% are under 63. What are the mean and
standard deviation of the distribution?
4. Let X denote the number of scores on a test. If X is normally distributed with mean 100 and standard
deviation 15, find the probability that X does not exceed 130.
5. It is known from past experience that the number of telephone calls made daily in a certain community
between 3 P.M. and 4 P.M. have a mean of 352 and a standard deviation of 31. What percentage of the
time will there be more than 400 telephone calls made in this community between 3 P.M. and 4 P.M.?
6. Students of a class were given a mechanical aptitude test. Their grades were found to be normally
distributed with mean 60 and standard deviation 5. What percent of students scored
(i) more than 60 grades? (ii) less than 56 grades?
(iii) between 45 and 65 grades?
7. In an examination taken by 500 candidates, the average and the standard deviation of grades obtained
(normally distributed) are 40% and 10%. Find approximately:
(i) How many will pass, if 50% is fixed as a minimum?
(ii) What should be the minimum if 350 candidates are to pass?
(iii) How many have scored above 60%?

Answers
1. 300 2. (i) 252 (ii) 533 3. x = 50.3, σ = 10.33

4. 0.9772 5. 6.06% 6. (i) 50% (ii) 21.2% (iii) 84%

7. (i) 79 (ii) 35% (iii) 11
________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SAMPLING AND TESTS OF SIGNIFICANCE

21.64 POPULATION OR UNIVERSE
An aggregate of objects (animate or inanimate) under study is called population or
universe. It is thus a collection of individuals or of their attributes (qualities) or of results of
operations that can be numerically specified.
A universe containing a finite number of individuals or members is called a finite inverse:
for example, the universe of the weights of students in a particular class.
A universe with an infinite number of members is known as an infinite universe: for
example, the universe of pressures at various points in the atmosphere.
In some cases, we may even be ignorant whether or not a particular universe is infinite, e.g.,
the universe of stars.