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An Asian strategy for

recovery and reconstruction


after COVID-19
3 June 2020

Asian Bureau of Economic Research


Crawford School of Public Policy, College of Asia and the Pacific
The Australian National University, Canberra
Contributing experts
Chatib Basri
University of Indonesia and former Finance Minister, Indonesia

Suman Bery
Non resident fellow, Bruegel, former director-general, National Council of Applied Economic
Research, Delhi, and chief economist, Shell

Gordon de Brouwer
Honorary professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University
(ANU), former G20 Sherpa and Secretary of the Australian Department of the Environment
and Energy 

Yiping Huang
Professor and deputy director of the National School of Development, Peking University,
chair of the China Finance 40 Forum Academic Committee, and former member of the PBOC
Monetary Policy Committee

Motoshige Itoh
Professor, Faculty of International Social Sciences, Gakushuin University, and former
member of the Japanese Prime Minister’s Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy

Danny Quah
Professor and dean, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore

Heather Smith
Former G20 Sherpa and secretary of the Australian Department of Industry, Innovation
and Science

Rebecca Sta Maria


Executive director of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation secretariat and former
Secretary General of the Malaysian Ministry of Trade and Investment

Somkiat Tangkitvanich
President of the Thailand Development Research Institute

Asian Bureau of Economic Research Convening Secretariat


Peter Drysdale, Shiro Armstrong, Adam Triggs, Jacob Taylor and Jiao Wang, Asian Bureau
of Economic Research, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University

Acknowledgements
The authors are especially grateful for the advice and substantial input of Dr Mari Pangestu,
Managing Director, World Bank and former Indonesian Minister of Trade, and Professor
Tikki Pangestu of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of
Singapore; the organisational and editorial support of Mr Brandon Harrington of ABER; and
the publications assistance of Mr Peter Fuller of ABER.
Contents
An Asian compact for recovery 1

An Asian strategy for recovery and reconstruction after COVID-19 2

1. Call for collective action 2

Prolonged crisis without international cooperation 2


Asian economies central to recovery 3
Global crisis calls for global action 4
2. Specific policy priorities 4
Health policy 5
Economic policy 6
Fiscal policy dimensions 6
International financial safety net 7
Debt transparency 8
Easing supply-side constraints through structural reform 8
Enhancing supply chain resilience and allowing market-based solutions 9
Digital transformation 10
Immediate action to keep international trade and commerce open 11
Guaranteeing food and energy security through international markets 11
Maintaining international access to medical supplies and equipment 12
Immediate conclusion of the RCEP agreement 12
Indonesian initiative in WTO reform 12
Asian initiatives in the G20 13
3. Regional follow-through and action 14
Leaders’ summit 14
Regional and multilateral cooperation 14
Task forces for action 15
Asian COVID-19 strategy 1

An Asian compact for recovery


Key message
Asian nations should proactively coordinate financial, trade, public health and food security
policies to avoid prolonged economic stagnation and international disruption from the CO-
VID-19 pandemic. 
The weight and potential of Asian economies will be central to global economic recovery
from the COVID-19 crisis. Cooperation in Asia to effect immediate action and frame ongo-
ing collaboration will help avoid unintended international consequences of nationally driven
policy responses and a deeper and prolonged downturn. Regional and multilateral frame-
works will increase capacity to contribute constructively to regional and global recovery.

Action
To address looming financial problems, central banks and finance ministries should ex-
pand bilateral currency swap arrangements and agree on a new issuance of Special Draw-
ing Rights (SDRs) to create a stronger regional financial safety net. More than 100 countries
have sought IMF assistance as Covid-19 triggers a wave of financial crises. Asian countries
need macroeconomic policy space and financial stability simultaneously to combat the public
health and economic dimensions of the crisis. Extending bilateral currency swap lines and
expanding liquidity facilities with regional development banks will strengthen regional
safety nets. 
Support the development, production and equitable distribution in Asia of diagnostic
tests, a vaccine and treatments through collective commitment of funds to the WHO’s CO-
VID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator and expansion of the COVID-19 ASEAN Response Fund to
include ASEAN+6 nations.
Keep medical and food markets open. Trade in medical equipment and supplies should
not be restricted after critical domestic needs have been met. Asia must commit to reducing
or eliminating tariffs and non-tariff measures on medical goods and services. Food security
depends on access to international markets and export restrictions need to be eliminated.
Current bilateral initiatives can be consolidated into a regional agreement.
Lead the development of protocols for people movement to fast track the resumption of in-
ternational commerce, travel for study, scientific exchange, temporary labour movement, and
tourism, via the introduction of protocols of health certification for international travel.
Embrace the accelerated digital transformation that COVID has brought to health man-
agement as a source of dynamism, greater opportunities for participation, higher productiv-
ity and economic growth. Asia can initiate a proactive agenda for collective governance of
digital infrastructure that includes regulatory coherence, privacy standards and data sharing.
This is now essential to new work practices, new production modes, supply chain manage-
ment and delivery of goods and services, including government services. 
Conclude the RCEP agreement immediately to ensure regional trade solidarity. Collective
Asian efforts are large enough to help safeguard the international system. Initial conclusion
of RCEP with 15 members will send a global signal, ensure food security, vastly improve
energy security and keep markets open in East Asia. The RCEP group needs to keep open a
path for eventual Indian membership and actively promote cooperation with South Asia in
the global effort to fight the pandemic and contain its economic impact.
ASEAN should lead collective Asian action to implement this agenda through its ASEAN+3
and ASEAN+6 groupings, engaging the East Asian Summit countries, including the United
States, and the APEC and G20 forums, while stepping up to lead reforms in the WTO and
IMF.
Asian COVID-19 strategy 2

An Asian strategy for recovery and


reconstruction after COVID-19
1. Call for recovery will take much longer. Long-term
joblessness is a serious danger, more so than
collective action in other downturns. Asia will have to act fast
to limit the negative impact on growth this
The health and economic consequences of year and beyond.
the COVID-19 pandemic are unprecedented.
The scale of the health crisis is far reaching The IMF’s and other predictions of a very
and its impact on the global economy has not sharp (V-shaped) recovery in the latter part
been seen before in modern times. of 2020 and in 2021 assume a quick resump-
tion to business as usual given the limited
The human tragedy of the pandemic is enor- damage to capital stock and the job retention
mous. Almost 400,000 deaths and close to 6 schemes put in place by a number of govern-
million cases have been recorded worldwide ments. That is unrealistic unless consumer
as at the end of May 2020. In some countries, and business confidence can be restored by
the spread has been more or less contained governments quickly and unless the mea-
and lockdown eased; in others, especially sures put in place in response to the crisis
those with inadequate health systems and that prevent the movement of people, close
governance, the spread and deaths will con- down vast swathes of people-focussed eco-
tinue. In many societies, even under quaran- nomic activity and restrict trade can be safely
tine and lockdown, blind spots of contagion reversed. Short-term, inward-looking, na-
are potentially present and risks remain of tionalistic policy settings will frustrate global
second and third waves of infection. recovery for all.

The pandemic is the most damaging eco- Prolonged crisis without


nomic event since the Great Depression. In international cooperation
its April 2020 World Economic Outlook, the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts Without international cooperation and co-
a baseline fall of 3 per cent in global incomes ordination, the world is facing a prolonged
in 2020. Growth, it says, may rebound to 5.8 health crisis and lasting economic stagnation
per cent in 2021 but it also warns of more on a scale not seen since the Great Depres-
dire outcomes. China’s GDP dropped 6.8 per sion.
cent in the first quarter of 2020 on the previ-
ous year, Japan’s dropped 3.4 per cent and International cooperation is essential to get-
the United States’ fell 4.8 per cent. Europe’s ting health supplies, diagnostics and equip-
GDP is forecast to fall 7.8 per cent this year. ment to where they are needed and ensuring
It is unclear how long the dramatic slump their fair and equitable distribution. It will
in world output will continue. In the global speed the development of treatments and an
financial crisis in 2008, the global economy effective vaccine — hopefully more quickly
shrank by a mere 0.1 per cent, 3.3 per cent in than has ever been possible before. It is es-
advanced economies, offset by 2.8 per cent sential to establishing international health
positive growth in the emerging world. Ab- regulations and protocols that will allow the
sent decisive action now, the loss of employ- world to gradually open up again to interna-
ment, human capital and structural damage tional travel.
that are wrought by the pandemic mean that

Without international cooperation and coordination,


the world is facing a prolonged health crisis and
lasting economic stagnation
Asian COVID-19 strategy 3

The history of the Great Depression and ex- centred on global value chains and their
perience with the global financial crisis tells role in lifting regional growth East Asia is
us that, absent international cooperation, more economically integrated than Europe.
recovery will be uncertain and prolonged. It has substantial human, organisational and
The unintended international consequences financial resources, and effective platforms of
of nationally driven economic policy re- dialogue that can be catalysed to drive action
sponses will likely lead to recurrent financial on the COVID-19 crisis.
and economic shocks and long-term loss of
potential income. Two key policy lessons COVID-19 calls for a multilateralism that is
from the Great Depression were that central formed out of coalitions of the capable and
bank inaction and protectionist trade policies the willing, and no longer from conventional
deepened and extended stagnation. architectures of top-down leadership. Being
part of this multilateral coordination, when
Asian economies central to recovery doing so really matters, will be a fresh op-
portunity to help raise levels of trust across
Asian economies will be central to recovery all nations thus engaged, and help allay wor-
from the COVID-19 crisis because of the ries from historical patterns of missteps and
weight and potential they have in the world mistakes.
economy. Struck down by the virus first, they
are now positioned to restart their economies
sooner. Asia has the opportunity to lead the
Struck down by the virus
exit from the COVID-19 crisis and be a vital first, Asian economies are
driver of the global economic recovery.
now positioned to start
Traditionally the world has looked to the their economies sooner
United States to lead global economic recov-
ery, on account of the size of its economy,
its freedom of policy action given the inter- Asia has the greatest incentive to reverse the
national role of the US dollar and its long- accelerating momentum to protectionism
established tradition of leadership in global and the breakdown of global cooperation by
economic diplomacy. The Federal Reserve rebuilding trust, strengthening governance
System has provided significant US dollar and updating global rules. Because of their
liquidity through swap arrangements with dense populations and limited resource
other central banks, but these arrangements endowments, the economies of East Asia are
have not been extended to all Asian nations, more dependent on the international econo-
and US leadership in global multilateral in- my and global supply chains than economies
stitutions is now less forthcoming and more elsewhere in the world. The World Bank esti-
transactional. mated that the average trade to GDP ratio for
all East Asia and the Pacific was 57 per cent
Asia must play a central role in recovery in 2017, double that of the United States. East
from this crisis, because of its large share Asia’s economic and political security cru-
of global output, its deep integration into cially depends on open trade and commerce.
global economic activity and its capacity
for an early exit. Asia—defined as the As- Closed economies will face slower recover-
sociation of South-East Asian Nations Plus ies. International economic cooperation will
Six (ASEAN+6) group—accounted for over be vital to managing the crisis and to sup-
40 per cent of global GDP valued at market porting the recovery through trade, a faster
prices in 2019 and is now the world’s biggest reopening of business supply chains and
region in terms of purchasing power parity. lower investment costs. Economic integra-
The ASEAN+6 group is the natural choice tion is central to Asia’s economic and politi-
for an Asian initiative on the COVID-19 cal security and a core strategic objective is
crisis, incorporating six Group of Twenty to preserve an open global economy and the
(G20) members and anchored in the ASEAN global, multilateral cooperative institutions
arrangements. Although more diverse than and arrangements that underpin it.
North America or Europe, on some measures
Asian COVID-19 strategy 4

There is no simple solution to the social and nesses. This can be done globally through
economic damage done by the pandemic. the IMF, through regional arrangements and
Different countries are in different stages development banks and bilaterally via cur-
in the crisis and their circumstances vary rency swap line agreements.
markedly as they employ different strate-
gies to find a balance between measures to Promoting international solidarity based
safeguard public health, economic survival on trust and sharing as a basis for collec-
and recovery, and social equilibrium. But a tive action to deal with all dimensions of the
universal scenario is that social distancing crisis is central to success. Asian economies
policies have decimated whole sectors of can contribute through a compact to rebuild
national economies and an extended lock- trust, strengthen governance and update
down on international movement threatens global rules. International organisations must
recovery. Urgent national action to arrest the play a central role in monitoring and assess-
pandemic needs to be combined with proac- ing the impact of the crisis on trade, invest-
tive regional and global coordination on pub- ment and global value chains. Joint commit-
lic health, food security, financial and trade ments at the regional and multilateral level
policies that is mindful of these national will ensure different national measures are
social circumstances. transparent, proportionate and temporary,
and are removed when no longer justified,
The immediate priorities in national respons- based on the evidence and data not economic
es to the pandemic were to delay the spread exigencies or political pressure.
of the virus and control outbreaks by control-
ling the movement of people and flow of es- Mutually agreed guiding principles will help
sential medical and other supplies. Domestic constrain the actions of Asian nations to en-
economic and social measures in the form of sure that responses to the crisis do not rein-
income support, fiscal and financial expan- force or entrench existing inequalities. Asian
sion and strengthening social safety nets nations can adopt the World Bank Group’s
were needed to preserve jobs and the welfare COVID-19 response priorities of poverty al-
of the people. These measures have brought leviation, gender equality and environmental
temporary reprieve but they have raised sustainability. A pressing issue for coordina-
questions about sovereignty and globalisa- tion is the treatment of migrant workers.
tion. The disruption of supply chains, chal- Government-to-government collaboration
lenges in repaying or refinancing external is necessary to resolve cross-border issues
debt, the dive in export earnings and plum- like migration and the access of migrants to
meting investment, if not answered, will healthcare and social protection.
leave policy settings that impact seriously on
recovery and growth.
2. Specific policy
Global crisis calls for global action priorities
The global nature of this health and eco- Asian countries must deal with the inter-
nomic crisis calls for faster and better coordi- national health policy and economic policy
nation among governments rather than each challenges of exit from the crisis simultane-
economy trying to go it alone, and demon- ously; failure to do so has caused, and will
strates the importance and the value of mul- continue to cause, more social disruption,
tilateral cooperation. Governments in Asia more deaths and more economic hardship.
can share important insights into the impact
of the pandemic on the domestic economy, Differences in country circumstances and the
including economic growth and the macro- different stages of health and economic re-
economy, employment, and food and energy covery increase the payoffs from experience
markets. Multilateral coordination on finan- sharing, cooperation and coordination. This
cial policy can help lift the capacity of de- will help avoid unintended consequences
veloped and emerging economies to execute from national policy interventions.
fiscal and monetary policy to alleviate nega-
tive impacts on the lives of people and busi- International medical and scientific coopera-
Asian COVID-19 strategy 5

tion through multiple channels including the the pandemic. Countries in Asia have inter-
WHO, which enabled speedy understand- est in committing to maintaining the work of
ing of the nature and epidemiology of the the WHO and expanding its capacity to mon-
disease, is vital to an effective response to it. itor and manage the spread of communicable
The incentive to build on that experience and disease, after careful review of the experience
invest in it is important to the management with the COVID-19 crisis.
of future pandemics and a common object in
future cooperation. The incentive to cooper- Asian countries’ collective commitment of
ate in fast-tracking development of a CO- funding to WHO’s COVID Response Fund
VID-19 vaccine and treatments is global. would be a first step. Asian nations should
support arrangements to ensure equitable ac-
Health Policy cess to pandemic countermeasures by fund-
ing the COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator,
Priorities in international cooperation on an alliance of health partners from inter-
health policy are:  national institutions such as the WHO and
the World Bank, private sector, and health
• A substantial commitment to funding partnerships for vaccine development such
as the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness
and empowering international and
Innovations (CEPI), and the Vaccine Alliance
regional health agencies to manage
(GAVI).
and monitor the ongoing response
to the crisis, especially in developing Asian countries also have direct interest in
economies; building regional capacities for scientific and
medical research and exchange to comple-
• Keeping open trade in medical equip- ment global efforts. This can be achieved
ment and supplies, sharing diagnostic by expanding ASEAN+3’s commitment
tests, vaccines and technology, and to a COVID-19 ASEAN Response Fund to
regional cooperation in managing CO- include ASEAN+6 partner countries. Asian
VID-19 outbreaks; and countries should commit to closer coop-
eration between animal health and human
• The establishment of a task force to health sectors in the future. Asian nations
should revive a 2016 agreement made by
collaborate on protocols for health cer-
ASEAN establishing the ASEAN Coordinat-
tification of international travel both ing Centre for Animal Health and Zoonoses
before and after universal vaccination (ACCAHZ). The ACCAHZ has the potential
becomes possible. to provide a framework of cooperation for
the eradication of animal diseases and zoo-
• Commitment to timely and open shar- noses, improve food safety and security, and
ing of data and information to support provide the interface between animal and
an early warning system for disease human health in the ASEAN region.
outbreaks with epidemic and pandem-
ic potential. Medical supply shortages inevitably be-
devilled management of the initial wave of
COVID-19 will require a global effort in fatal infections in every country and recom-
cooperation, collaboration and coordination, mended parochial responses that restricted
even if those now seem in short supply. trade in medical supplies and equipment
and getting them to where they were most
Threats to the funding of the WHO are not needed. Still the phasing of transmission and
consistent with global interest in insulat- its timing across countries is the source of
ing the world against inevitable outbreaks important gains from cooperation, through
of communicable disease and future pan- boosting trade and medical assistance. The
demics. Scientific inquiry and analysis is an Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation’s (APEC)
essential global public good, and should be Supply Chain Security Toolkit can be used
uncontaminated by blame germinated in the in conjunction with the WHO’s guidance
heat of the national politics of dealing with to develop national and regional plans for
Asian COVID-19 strategy 6

improving the quality and resilience of the different sectors (education, manufacturing,
medical equipment supply chain. It is a tourism) and the balance sheets of govern-
comprehensive program designed to address ments, banks, corporates and households.
vulnerability in the entire supply chain and They can learn from each other about the
life cycle of medical products. best policy responses and how to tailor fiscal,
monetary and structural policies. They can
To fast-track the resumption of international learn strategies to manage the consequences
commerce, educational exchanges, scientific of necessary macroeconomic policy actions,
collaboration and tourism critical to both including moral hazard, asset price bubbles,
regional development and understanding, increased debt, regional financial spillovers
a graduated system of protocols of health and issues around distribution and inequal-
certification for travel will need to be put in ity.
place quickly. Governments in the region can
lead the world through collaborating in the Domestically, economies need to immedi-
development and implementation of such ately strengthen crisis-management frame-
protocols with the WHO. works. Ensuring policymakers and institu-
tions have the legal tools and protections
Economic Policy necessary to respond quickly and effectively
will be vital. Having clear bankruptcy and
Asia faces a perfect economic storm. Most resolution processes will reduce the ultimate
recessions are caused by a demand shock cost of any sharp financial shocks. Now is
(think 9/11), a supply shock (think of the the time to use fiscal and monetary buffers to
first oil price increase) or a financial shock avoid the long-term consequences of reces-
(think Lehman Brothers). COVID-19 is deliv- sion. Governments must reallocate their bud-
ering all three. Each type of shock demands gets from low-urgency activities to health-
a different policy response. Fiscal stimulus care spending on COVID-19 and social safety
during a supply-shock boosts inflation and nets. Promoting transparency in institutions
little else. Supply-side reforms do little if will build trust among the public and inves-
businesses have no customers, and neither tors, reduce risks and volatility and improve
demand nor supply-side measures are effec- the functioning of markets.
tive without a functioning financial system.
Fiscal policy dimensions

Regional economic Regional economic cooperation will make


cooperation will make domestic challenges easier to solve. Coor-
dination gives demand-side measures like
domestic challenges fiscal stimulus a bigger bang-for-your-buck.
It makes supply-side measures like structural
easier to solve reforms and opening-up supply chains more
effective. It helps minimise financial risks,
mitigate financial shocks and prevent their
Experience needs to be pooled and support
contagion. A common approach to reform
mobilised for managing the fiscal dimen-
gives political cover and enhances regional
sions of social and economic lockdown strat-
consistency. Regional economic coordination
egies in different countries.
should focus on two areas: stabilisation and
recovery. Stabilising economies and financial
Sharing information, data and experience
systems and repairing structural damage to
will be vital to understanding the economic
supply chains are preconditions to imple-
nature of the shock and the best policy
menting the necessary reforms to build the
response. The pandemic is still evolving
economic recovery.
and uncertain. Countries can use ASEAN+
frameworks, APEC and the G20 to learn
Countries need macroeconomic policy
from each other about the impact of the pan-
space and financial stability if they are to
demic on growth, the macroeconomy, labour
combat the crisis. Many emerging Asian
markets, financial markets, food markets,
economy governments face a difficult trade-
energy markets, intergenerational inequality,
Asian COVID-19 strategy 7

off between supporting their economies currency swap network and are politically
and healthcare systems while minimising unable to go to the IMF. Asian economies
financial risks. Governments have borrowed which do have access to US swap lines and
internationally to finance vital healthcare have deep, widely used currencies—includ-
spending, fiscal stimulus, income supports ing Australia and Japan—should extend
and development programs. Emerging their swap line networks to include Asian
economies hold US$5.8 trillion in dollar-de- countries at risk. This will reassure markets
nominated debt. But such borrowing creates and provide temporary foreign exchange
financial risks that are being exacerbated by to refinance debts. Credit risk from these
COVID-19. Collapsing exchange rates have measures is negligible and a failure to pro-
seen foreign debts increase while collapsing vide adequate liquidity today requires more
trade, tourism and commodity prices have costly interventions tomorrow. Where central
seen foreign currency incomes fall. Rising banks are hesitant to extend currency swap
bond yields have increased borrowing costs, arrangements, finance ministries should
and the sudden stop in global capital flows create stand-by facilities that can be accessed
makes refinancing existing debt almost by countries in the region or amend central
impossible. The consequences of this trade- bank mandates to give them the flexibility
off are too much financial risk and too little they need to respond to the shock.
fiscal support.
The region’s central banks should expand bi-
International financial safety net lateral currency swap arrangement to create
a more robust regional financial safety net.
Central banks and finance ministries need to Globally they should support a new issuance
be charged with the urgent task of develop- of the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDRs)
ing regional financial safety nets adequate to and explore ways in which the existing pool
provide the necessary external funding and of SDRs can be better deployed to ease exter-
introduce new financial mechanisms to cover nal liquidity constraints. The standstill on of-
funding shortfalls. Analyses from the G20 ficial debt service agreed to by G20 members
Eminent Persons Group, the IMF, the Bank of could also be of help to the least-developed
England and the Brookings Institution have nations of the region and would demonstrate
highlighted the inadequacies of the global fi- willingness to participate in global burden-
nancial safety net in managing large shocks. sharing.

Coordination can reduce regional financial Regionally, development banks should


risks while ensuring countries have adequate proactively expand and create more limited-
resources to fight COVID-19. Countries have conditionality liquidity facilities at the same
shared incentives. COVID-19 will continue to as improving regional financing mecha-
worsen unless there are adequate resources nisms, expand the availability of precau-
to fight it. Economies will remain closed for tionary lending and increase surveillance
longer and the ultimate cost of the pandemic activities. Regional surveillance will be vital
to all countries will be higher. Financial risks to identifying risks early and understanding
will affect the whole region. A surge of fi- their systemic implications. Unlike the facili-
nancial crises has already engulfed Ecuador, ties in development banks, the Chiang Mai
Zambia and Argentina. Turkey and South Initiative Multilaterization (CMIM) remains
Africa are vulnerable, and Brazil, Russia untested and is not yet fully operational. The
and Mexico have seen substantial currency ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office
depreciation. Indonesia is the front line of will play a critical role in bolstering regional
defence against financial contagion in Asia. surveillance, operationalising the CMIM
and better coordinating the CMIM with the
Bilaterally, currency swap lines between IMF. Addressing these risks will require
central banks and loans between finance liquidity facilities that countries can access
ministries should be used to fill the gaps left quickly and easily on a precautionary basis.
by inadequate global and regional safety The Asian Development Bank (ADB), the
nets. Many emerging Asian economies have Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)
been left out of the Federal Reserve System’s and the New Development Bank (NDB)
Asian COVID-19 strategy 8

should review their procedures to encour- Debt transparency


age fiscal support for health programs with
light conditionality and simplified bidding Asian countries must improve transparency
and procurement. Ensuring adequate trade of foreign debt arrangements in vulnerable
and development financing will help gov- emerging economies. Policymakers in bor-
ernments free up other resources to better rowing countries need reliable debt informa-
respond to the pandemic. tion to make informed borrowing decisions;
creditors, donors, analysts and rating agen-
Globally, Asian IMF members should sup- cies need transparency to assess sovereign
port a substantial allocation of the IMF’s creditworthiness, to appropriately price debt
Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) combined instruments and to coordinate with other
with the creation of new limited-condition- donors and creditors, including commercial
ality precautionary lending facilities, despite creditors, on equitable refinancing arrange-
the present cautions of India and Japan. ments; and citizens need greater transparen-
They should also explore ways in which the cy to hold their governments accountable for
existing pool of SDRs can be better deployed the environmental and social risks involved
to ease external liquidity constraints. A new in investment projects.
issuance of Special Drawing Rights will
provide vital foreign exchange during times Asian nations must support initiatives to im-
of financial stress while greater access to prove the capacity of emerging economies to
precautionary financing will reassure mar- manage debt vulnerability, such as the IMF-
kets and provide greater financial resources World Bank Debt Sustainability Framework
with less IMF-stigma. Asian G20 countries for Low-Income Countries (LIC DSF). They
should push for a renewal of bilateral loans can also work with China in international
to the IMF and, in the longer-term, push for (IMF and World Bank, G20) and regional
increased quota shares of emerging econo- settings (ASEAN and APEC) to improve
mies, while preserving the veto power of the the transparency of emerging economies’
United States to ensure political feasibility. debt obligations for BRI investment proj-
ects. The pandemic presents an opportunity
for Chinese creditors and policymakers to
Coordination can reduce coordinate with creditors’ clubs (for example,
regional financial risks through the Paris and London Clubs) to
establish shared international norms around
while ensuring countries investment financing. Cooperative co-fi-
nancing arrangements for BRI projects could
have adequate resources improve China’s domestic financial stabil-
to fight COVID-19 ity and offer political cover by distributing
financial risk across multiple creditors.

Given the inadequacy of the global safety net Easing supply-side constraints
revealed by the present crisis, and the mas- through structural reform
sive inefficiency of self-insurance through
build up of international reserves, Asian Supply-side constraints need to be removed
members of the G-20 should use their pres- in product and capital markets and structural
ence in the G20 Finance track to revisit the reforms implemented to accelerate recovery
2018 report of the Eminent Persons Group on and lift growth potential.
the international safety net and monetary re-
form. These issues can then be taken forward Structural reforms should build off the inno-
by the Italian, Indian and Indonesian presi- vations forced by COVID-19. The pandemic
dencies, combined with an immediate push has accelerated adjustments in many sectors,
for a major new issuance of Special Drawing particularly digital transformation, changing
Rights. work patterns and shifting the environmen-
tal footprint of economic activities. These
changes are sources of economic dynamism,
greater productivity and economic growth
Asian COVID-19 strategy 9

in their own right. There is an opportunity Enhancing supply chain resilience


to set out a positive and proactive agenda and allowing market-based solutions
for taking advantage of the changes already
realised. Many of these changes relate to COVID-19 is only the latest (albeit the most
domestic market practice and can enhance extensive) in a string of recent shocks to
productivity and competition in different global supply chains (in 2009 H1N1 reduced
sectors. GDPs around the world by between 0.5 and
1.5 per cent; the 2010 Iceland Volcano was
Labour market reform, government budget a US$1.7 billion hit to airlines; and Japan’s
repair, social safety net expansion and re- tsunami in 2011 decimated production in the
form of healthcare systems will be needed Asian car industry), a succession of events
to sustain recovery and manage the next that has already incentivised businesses and
crisis. The aftermath of the pandemic will see governments to manage risk by building
new work arrangements, distressed assets, resilience into supply chains. Supply chains
large budget deficits, accumulated corporate of goods unrestricted by emergency lock-
and household debt and severely weakened down measures (such as medical and protec-
health systems globally. Inequality in societ- tive equipment and some food exports) have
ies will grow significantly and policies that proven largely resilient, agile and flexible,
were previously unthinkable will be needed and existing systems have helped many
for recovery. It is an opportunity to cement countries to maintain imports during shut-
reforms that make economies more resilient, downs and the global crisis.
flexible and equitable.

Reform that is coordinated with other coun-


tries will have more chance at succeeding.
Asia can initiate a proactive
The commitment to keep markets open in agenda for governance
partner countries will facilitate reforms at
home. Staggered recoveries provide learning of digital infrastructure
opportunities and lessons for others. Some
East Asian economies have been able to con-
that includes regulatory
tain the health crisis earlier than the rest of coherence, privacy standards
the world but face an external environment
of more closed markets and a substantially and data sharing.
locked down global economy. Structural re-
form in these countries can be matched with
Nations in Asia must coordinate efforts to
demand-side stimulus to drive much needed
keep trade open and campaign against the
growth, providing markets and a source of
intuition that protectionism and onshoring
growth for other countries as they lift lock-
increases supply chain resilience. Stockpiling
downs.
and onshoring of production must be limited
to essential medical and protective equip-
Setting the foundations for long-term sus- ment during acute shortages. A significant
tainable growth will benefit from coordi- policy shift to onshoring would bring with it
nation in structural reform. International a concentration of risks and significant costs
cooperation and coordination can facilitate that make supply chains more vulnerable to
the sequencing and enhance the positive shocks. Diversifying supply across the global
spillovers from structural reform. Coordina- system where there are differences in climate,
tion gives countries new ideas and provides technology, costs and endowments, makes
political cover for countries to be more supply chains more resilient. Decisions to lo-
ambitious. Asian economies can help shape cate or relocate production should be driven
the APEC and G20 agendas to identify these by private companies that already diversify
areas of common interest and ask each coun- and mitigate risk. China will continue to
try to commit to one or two practical reforms be at the centre of Asian supply chains for
in each area. Sustainable infrastructure, the the reasons that made it the ‘factory of the
digital economy and strengthening the resil- world’, and regional and plurilateral cooper-
ience of supply chains stand out as priorities. ation in standards and regulation can reduce
Asian COVID-19 strategy 10

supply chain vulnerability. This has placed in stark relief the importance
of robust digital connectivity to promote
Comprehensive supply chain resilience economic participation and drive inclusive
requires a multilayered approach. To reduce growth. This includes both physical infra-
supply chain vulnerability governments structure assets and regulatory regimes that
must commit to avoiding tariffs and export enable society to maximise the benefits of
controls—ensuring free trade in goods and digital connectivity. Only 53 per cent of the
services—and facilitate the digital infrastruc- world’s population is connected to the Inter-
ture that helps manage supply chain risk. net. As more of daily life moves online, exist-
Openness to foreign direct investment will ing disparities in internet access are set to
help businesses diversify risk. International exacerbate the digital divide between urban
and regional banks need to allocate more and rural areas as well as between the poor
capital to small- and medium-sized enter- and the wealthy. This holds true both within
prises (SMEs) while also supporting pro- and between Asian economies.
grams designed to upskill the labour force in
these firms. Developing digital infrastructure Governments in Asia can work together to
and creating international regulatory coher- embrace the acceleration of digital transfor-
ence in digital trade protocols will enhance mation under COVID-19 as a source of dyna-
visibility across supply chains beyond im- mism, greater opportunities for participation,
mediate tier one suppliers and help iden- higher productivity and economic growth in
tify vulnerabilities. Regional data privacy the region. Digital transformation also offers
standards, tax and other incentives to share an opportunity to revamp the provision of
data will encourage the use of digital supply government services. Collective action in
networks. Asia will be critical if governments wish to
take advantage of and imbue collective trust
APEC’s Supply Chain Security Toolkit is in the changes that have already been un-
an example of a comprehensive program leashed.
designed to address vulnerability in the
entire supply chain and life cycle of medical The pandemic also presents Asia with both
products. The program focuses on develop- the opportunity and the incentives to set
ing—and implementing through training out a positive and proactive agenda for
programs—processes, procedures, and tools collective governance of digital infrastruc-
directed at enhancing global medical prod- ture. Investment in digital infrastructure is
uct quality and supply chain security. This an important target for economic stimulus
toolkit can be used in conjunction with the during economic recovery, but the impact of
WHO’s guidance on national planning for such investment depends on large-scale re-
preventing, detecting, and responding to ac- gional adoption and interoperability of these
tions, activities, and behaviours that result in technologies and shared protocols for data
substandard and falsified medical products. privacy and sovereignty.

Digital transformation Digital transformation can be harnessed as


a driver of economic recovery and social
The pandemic has accelerated adjustment in development in Asia only if it is more effec-
many sectors, particularly changes in work tively governed through multilateral agree-
patterns and a shift to business models that ments. These should include cybersecurity
leverage digital infrastructure for produc- guidelines and assistance with ‘cloud pro-
tion, supply chain management and the de- curement’ and ‘cloud first’ policies. Building
livery of goods and services. Digital technol- trust in domestic and cross-border data flows
ogies have played a critical role through big with policies that address concerns over pri-
data, artificial intelligence, and modelling, vacy, consumer protection, and security will
in the pandemic response, conducting mass also be critical. Current restrictions to cross-
monitoring, contact tracing, and integrating border data flows hamper the operation of
databases (for example, health information these tools, delay the pandemic response and
with immigration data) and even in the equi- raise costs for business. These restrictions are
table rationing of face masks. usually imposed in pursuit of a range of reg-
Asian COVID-19 strategy 11

ulatory goals, in particular privacy, security, during and after the crisis.
competition (which covers restrictions aimed
at helping domestic industries), internet ac- Strong, credible commitments to maintain
cess and control, financial regulation and law food supply are needed from agricultural
enforcement. producing countries to ensure confidence
in others that shortages can be met from
APEC’s digital policy framework and its the international market. Previous agree-
links to the business community in Asia can ments and commitments come under threat
be used to develop a coordinated agenda during times of emergency and pandemic,
for digital infrastructure. It is important that so governments must jointly renew those
China, as the biggest economy in Asia and commitments. The 1979 Agreement on the
a leader in digital technology and innova- ASEAN Food Security Reserve and the 2011
tion, work with other countries in a regional ASEAN+3 Emergency Rice Reserve should
setting to encourage regional integration and be updated, re-committed to and expanded.
the development of the governance of digital Energy security can also be achieved through
infrastructure. cooperation and coordination that alleviates
shortages. The volatility in energy prices,
Immediate action to keep international with oil prices collapsing into negative
trade and commerce open territory, and uncertainty about continued
shipping and freight, requires strong com-
The lessons are clear from the Great Depres- mitments to maintain supply internationally.
sion: when countries retreated to closed mar- For example, stockpiling of oil and energy
kets and beggar-thy-neighbour protectionist should not exceed internationally agreed
policies, recessions turned into a global eco- International Energy Agency volumes, and
nomic depression and delayed recovery. The stimulus and assistance can be targeted at
rejection of protectionism at the London G20 expanding the electricity network and incen-
Summit in April 2009 took the world back tivising the transition to clean energy.
from the brink and the world showed it does
not have to go down a protectionist route.
A declaration to prevent
Cooperation to avoid protectionism is harder
now than it was during the global financial
unnecessary trade-restrictive
crisis with a much deeper economic crisis, measures on medical
an entangled health crisis and global coop-
eration faltering long before the pandemic. goods and other essential
Governments will face more protectionist
pressure, and regional and international
products is needed
cooperation will be needed to keep markets
from closing up. In March, New Zealand and Singapore
agreed to maintain tariff free trade of medi-
Guaranteeing food and energy security cal equipment and agricultural produce to
through international markets maintain supply chains between the two
countries and avoid shortages. That agree-
The risk of food shortages during the lock- ment was followed by a similar one between
downs and social distancing has led govern- Japan and Singapore.
ments to restrict exports of rice and other
staples. Food security comes from access Other groups of countries in Asia have
to international markets. Export restrictions pledged to keep trade routes open. Australia,
cause great uncertainty about access to food Brunei, Myanmar and New Zealand issued
on the international market and lead other a joint statement in April to maintain air and
countries to reciprocate. National govern- sea freight, and in May, Australia, Canada,
ments are focused on the most pressing New Zealand, Singapore and South Korea
domestic issues, but without purposeful agreed to guidelines for maintaining essen-
collective action there will be no internation- tial cross-border travel. These bilateral and
al market to freely buy from or sell to plurilateral agreements can be expanded.
Asian COVID-19 strategy 12

Maintaining international access to and South Korea, less India initially—will


medical supplies and equipment ensure food security, vastly improve energy
security and keep markets open in East Asia.
Many countries and businesses are diverting The commitment to liberalisation and trade
resources to produce masks, hand sanitis- reform in RCEP has the weight to make a dif-
ers, ventilators and other medical equipment ference in keeping the global trading system
to top up imports during a global shortage. open.
Such measures should be notified to the
WHO and remain in line with existing WTO The various arrangements and groupings
rules. Restricting exports of that equipment in Asia and across the Pacific have gaps in
to other countries after critical domestic membership and agendas, and they need to
needs have been met, as many are already be deployed creatively and strategically to
doing, will cause avoidable shortages in lock in openness, transparency and to build
other countries. resilience. APEC will be important for forg-
ing consensus and mobilising groups of
To facilitate access to medical goods at any countries. Taiwan is a member and it links to
time and stand ready to react under any sort economies across the Pacific but importantly
of public health crisis, governments should India and some ASEAN members are not
develop a collective initiative to reduce or involved. The Comprehensive and Progres-
eliminate tariffs and non-tariff measures on sive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partner-
medical goods and build on and consolidate ship grouping can mobilise like-minded
bilateral initiatives. APEC, for example, has countries but lacks weight without China,
the track record to deliver on an initiative the United States, India, Indonesia, South
of this kind with the 2012 Environmental Korea and others. These limitations do not
Goods Agreement, which included a volun- need to impede progress.
tary commitment to reduce tariffs to 5 per
cent or less in 54 environmental goods. The The RCEP group needs to define a protocol
Information Technology Agreement in APEC of engagement with India which keeps open
is another earlier example, which was later a path for eventual Indian membership and
ratified at the WTO. A declaration to prevent actively promotes cooperation with South
unnecessary trade-restrictive measures on Asia. That will help to keep markets open to
medical goods and other essential products Indian suppliers and ensure medical, food
is needed globally, and that initiative can and energy supplies to India that help it
start in Asia. manage the health and economic challenges
it faces from the pandemic. As India is a po-
Huge productive capacity must be mobilised tentially important producer of a vaccine and
for any vaccine, to produce enough and to supplier of equipment, maintaining Indian
deliver that to those in need globally. Asia openness to foreign investment and exports
has major productive capacity but will need will be crucial in the global effort to fight the
to keep markets open to foreign investment pandemic and sustain India’s recovery.
and avoid export restrictions. Every nation
will want to treat its people first, so agree- Indonesian initiative in WTO reform
ments should be made prior to mass produc-
tion, on maintaining openness to investment, The WTO has been an effective backstop
supply chains for vital inputs, and to exports. against the surge in protectionism. While it is
out of date and not sufficiently fit for pur-
Immediate conclusion of the pose for the interconnected and globalised
RCEP agreement economy of the 21st century, it will be a criti-
cal bulwark in avoiding dis-integration of
Collective Asian efforts will be large enough the international economy and markets after
to help safeguard the international system. the COVID-19 economic crisis. The core rules
Immediate conclusion of the Regional Com- that govern goods trade and underpin the
prehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) global trading system need to be preserved
among the 15 ASEAN+6 members—ASEAN and protected. That will be made easier if se-
plus Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand rious progress can be made now with updat-
Asian COVID-19 strategy 13

ing and expanding WTO rules to new areas informal forum for leaders, supported by
of importance to international economic key economic meetings, especially of Finance
exchange today. Ministers and Central Bank Governors. The
G20 has a representative global membership,
Preserving the WTO and its functions will some of which are members of sub-group-
require coalitions of the willing, strategic ings like the largest advanced economies
action and leading by example. The 20-mem- in the G7 and some of the largest emerging
ber group that has replicated the WTO’s market economies (Brazil, Russia, India,
dispute settlement appellate body includes China and South Africa) in the BRICS group.
China and other members in Asia and across But the G20 is not merely a collection of sub-
the Pacific, but has some notable gaps in groups. The six G20 members from the Asian
East Asia. The important dispute settlement region—Australia, China, India, Indonesia,
function of the WTO can be protected by the Japan and South Korea—have articulated
partners in this initiative and Asia is a key the interests and views of the region without
theatre for action to expand their member- regionalisation within the G20.
ship.
Asia should work to ensure that countries
WTO reform has been on the G20 agenda are properly represented in the institutions
since the Argentinian Presidency. While under whose rules they operate and to which
many G20 and WTO members have reform they make financial contributions. Asia’s
ideas for the global trading body, Indone- voice in international economic institutions is
sia has taken a lead role with its proposed not commensurate with the size and impor-
reform framework of 2019. Indonesia is the tance of the region. For countries to work
largest country in ASEAN, is an important by internationally agreed norms and rules,
strategic actor in East Asia and is a leading and to work within existing international
developing country in the WTO. frameworks and institutions, they need to be
represented and participate on a fair footing
as shareholders and owners of those institu-
Asian regional cooperation tions in the decisions that they make.

in dealing with all This should be accompanied by significantly


dimensions of the COVID-19 increased resources provided to the IMF and
World Bank to deal with the current crisis,
crisis must have global as part of these countries paying more for
objectives and impact global economic stability. And it could be ac-
companied by additional steps for economic
transparency by members, for example in
the compilation of economic data, to support
Indonesia can lead a task force on reform of
independent assessment and evaluation of
the WTO that builds on its 2019 initiative,
members’ economic policies and institutions.
and report to the G20 grouping. Indonesia
Asian interests in leadership of global institu-
and the taskforce will suggest ways for-
tions, alongside—not at the expense of—the
ward for the WTO, so that it is relevant to
United States and Europe can be articulated
members managing the crisis but also sets
and demonstrated under the Saudi Arabian
the broad strategic direction for reform and
presidency in 2020, in 2021 under the Ital-
managing the frictions in the global trading
ian presidency and in 2022 under the Indian
system.
presidency. In 2023 Indonesia will be the G20
president and chair of ASEAN.
Asian initiatives in the G20
Asian initiatives should include regional
The G20 is the key economic forum for the
cooperation on the trade, health and finan-
leaders of the world’s largest developed and
cial priorities that this paper recommends,
emerging economies to discuss, engage and
framed and projected within the broader
work through the shared economic chal-
regional and global architecture.
lenges of the COVID-19 crisis. The G20’s
particular strength is that it is a political and
Asian COVID-19 strategy 14

3. Regional Asian regional cooperation in dealing with


all dimensions of the COVID-19 crisis must
follow-through have global objectives and impact. The
ASEAN+6 grouping has six G20 members
and action (and APEC has nine). These regional, mul-
tilateral frameworks will increase capacity
To give effect to this strategy, Asian econo- to contribute constructively to regional and
mies should: global recovery, without the encumbrance of
conflictual geo-politics.
Convene a Leaders’ Summit to commit to
these health and economic measures and The pandemic has exacerbated the already
global cooperation on them with the United growing tension and strategic competition
States and Europe, and with other regions between the world’s two largest powers,
the United States and China. Because both
Building trust and functional action in Asia, countries are so big economically and each
by agreeing on the elements of the agenda, is a leader in digital technology and innova-
will be a big first step in addressing the crisis tion, both the United States and China must
and limiting its impact on people across the play a key role in Asia’s contribution to
world. An ASEAN+6 summit is a good place global economic recovery, repair and revival.
to start to commit to specific health and eco- The prospects for the global economy will be
nomic approaches. brighter if Asia’s contribution is harnessed
in a way that helps to facilitate US–China
The ASEAN+6 countries are already actively cooperation.
engaged on the trade and economic coop-
eration agenda. Indonesia is best placed
to coordinate this initiative with ASEAN, The commitment to
and extend the work already begun among
ASEAN, China, Japan and Korea. Engaging liberalisation and trade
Australia, India and New Zealand beyond
the ASEAN+3 group brings in two more G20
reform in RCEP has the
members, provides a platform to engage weight to make a difference
India and includes two more countries with
early success at containing COVID-19. The in the global trading system
group gives RCEP momentum and poten-
tially provides a basis for its economic coop-
eration agenda. It can engage directly with Multilateral processes are critical to pros-
the United States in the East Asian Summit ecute the agenda here. Policy commitments
(ASEAN+10) process. by Asian economies have global objectives
and require engagement in global and mul-
tilateral forums beyond the region. Multilat-
Given its standing in the G20, role in ASEAN
eral processes are also based on principles
and its reputation for fair play, Indone-
of cooperation and openness that can help
sia’s President is best placed to convene such
to de-fuse bilateral tension by bringing the
a summit in conjunction with the ASEAN
perspective of others to bear on difficult
Chair. Whether held virtually or with appro-
bilateral problems. The collective interest
priate social distancing protocols, it needs to
of ASEAN+6 must be framed and pursued
be convened urgently and its result followed
within the broader regional and global ar-
up successively through the East Asian Sum-
chitecture, particularly APEC, the East Asian
mit, APEC and global forums.
Summit, the ADB, the AIIB and the G20 and
the multilateral institutions—the IMF, World
Use available cooperation institutions
Bank and WTO—because of the importance
(including the multilateral financial institu-
of Asia’s links with the United States, Europe
tions) and forums (such as APEC) and other
and globally and its core interests in proper
groupings to cover gaps in membership,
working of the global system.
build trust and promote coherent and con-
sistent agendas
Asian COVID-19 strategy 15

APEC, which includes the United States (but tor level. Collaboration among professionals
not India), is well placed to work through needs to begin now to plan for countries’
the global trade reform issues, to elaborate opening borders after effective domestic con-
its regime to strengthen digital trade, and to trol of COVID-19. Participating governments
forge commitment to principles for better de- can issue public health certification to their
cision making and governance that promote citizens, who can then travel under agreed
infrastructure investment. Groups of econo- quarantine guidelines to other participating
mies can take pathfinder approaches if there countries. This program can be opened up
is no overall consensus about an approach to any country willing to comply with the
or policy. There is a global shortage of infra- necessary public health requirements.
structure investment—regional infrastruc-
ture investment has stalled and re-starting it In economic policy cooperation, too, govern-
will be central to economic recovery. ments will sensibly draw upon private and
non-governmental expertise. This crisis is
Establish expert task forces comprising very different from the global financial crisis:
medical, economic and business experts this time round, financial institutions are in
to help shape action on each facet of the good shape, and especially the systemically
agenda important ones remain healthy. The ones that
suffer greatly from sudden reduction and
Assembling the necessary scientific, medical even halt of economic activities are the SMEs
and professional expertise to assist progress and the households. The experience of some
with the implementation of health, social and governments of working in partnership with
economic policy strategies will be impor- business and labour in helping to shape
tant to constructive cooperation at all levels. economic relief and reconstruction measures
Expert task forces engaging health, economic is important to share with others. The policy
and business experts from each country priority should shift from ‘Wall Street’ to
established by the ASEAN-led group will the ‘Main Street’. For many Asian countries,
be vital to providing advice and setting out how effectively to support ‘Main Street’ is
pathways for governments. Task forces ex- a new and major challenge where sharing
perts can play an important role in engaging policy experience and non-official expertise
with the medical, business, labour and civil can help. At another level, the regional and
society groups in each country. global multilateral financial institutions, in-
cluding the ADB, the AIIB, the NDB and the
For example, public health cooperation could World Bank have important roles to play in
focus on sharing best practices and supply of helping participating governments with the
medical equipment. These can be supported expertise and agency to better respond to the
at the medical professional and private sec- pandemic.

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