Corona Virus Forecasting

Pakistan

Date Daily COVID-19 cases 3 days Moving Average Forecased Cases

3-Apr 5020
4-Apr 4323
5-Apr 3953
6-Apr 4004 4432
7-Apr 5329 4093
8-Apr 5312 4429
9-Apr 5139 4882
10-Apr 5050 5260
11-Apr 4584 5167
12-Apr 4140 4924
13-Apr 4681 4591
14-Apr 5395 4468
15-Apr 5364 4739
16-Apr 4976 5147
17-Apr 5245
18-Apr 5195
19-Apr 5139
20-Apr 5193
21-Apr 5176
22-Apr 5169
23-Apr 5179

7000

6000

5000
Daily COVID-19
4000
3 days Moving A
Forecased Cases
3000 Exponential Smo
3 days weighted
2000 Cases

1000

0
3-Apr 10-Apr 17-Apr
 3000 Exponential Smo
3 days weighted
2000 Cases

1000

0
3-Apr 10-Apr 17-Apr

Cases Data Source https://covid.gov.pk/

Alpha Source https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2003/2003.07778.pdf

casting

Ft-1+(Apha(Ft-1 - At-1)),
Alpha=1 Sum(100*|Actual -Forecasted|/Actual)/N
Exponential Smothing 3 days weighted forecasted Cases MAPE; Alpha =1

4254
4860 4040 0.88
2858 4658 4.62
3545 5100 3.10
4624 5228 0.84
5470 5123 1.93
5750 4832 3.89
5709 4440 2.20
4502 4485 1.66
3542 4948 3.40
4113 5261 1.73
5175 24.25
5175
3427
2569
2596
2588
2585

Daily COVID-19 cases

3 days Moving Average
Forecased Cases
Exponential Smothing
3 days weighted forecasted
Cases
 Exponential Smothing
3 days weighted forecasted
Cases

NOTE
Weighted Moving Average
Recent day weight
2nd Recent Day weigh
3rd most Recent Weigh

/2003/2003.07778.pdf
Actual -Forecasted|/Actual)/N

MAPE error is statistal tool which stands For Mean Absolute Percentage error ehich tells
accuracy of the as it is percentage so accuracy can be understand, As our MAPE error is
24.25 which means the forecaste is 24.25% is off, which is very reasonable for forecasting
because the value between 20 % to 50% is reason for forecasting
Moving Average
3
2
1
 COVID-19 FORCASTING
INDIA

date daily cases of COVID-19 moving average exponantial smootingweighted average of cases
3-Apr-21 93249
4-Apr-21 103558
5-Apr-21 96982
6-Apr-21 115736 97930 98552
7-Apr-21 126789 105425 80123 107455
8-Apr-21 131968 113169 84062 118137
9-Apr-21 145384 124831 94370 127536
10-Apr-21 152879 134714 104278 137813
11-Apr-21 168912 143410 116548 146896
12-Apr-21 161736 155725 117909 159646
13-Apr-21 184372 161176 149714 162652
14-Apr-21 200739 171673 137979 174250
15-Apr-21 217353 182282 142608 188783
16-Apr-21 234692 200821 147212 206318
17-Apr-21 217595 223254
18-Apr-21 223213 226083
19-Apr-21 225167 152157
20-Apr-21 221992 76078
21-Apr-21 223457 38039
22-Apr-21 223538 19020
23-Apr-21 222996 9510
MAPE ;Alpha=1 DATA SOURCE;https://g.co/kgs/xUAywx
Ft-1+(Apha(Ft-1 - At-1)), Alpha=1
Sum(100*|Actual -Forecasted|/Actual)/N

250000

4
4 200000
4
3
3 150000
daily cases of COVID-19
3 moving average
2 exponantial smooting
100000
3 weighted average of cases
3
4 50000
32

0
3-Apr-21

MAPE
Use to compare the fits of different time series models. Smaller values indicate a
is Excellent, MAPE < 50% is Good) so in our case the MAPE error is all less than 5
 daily cases of COVID-19
moving average
exponantial smooting
weighted average of cases

s. Smaller values indicate a better fit. forecasting performance targets (such as MAPE < 10%
MAPE error is all less than 50 so it is good for forcasting.
c

Corona Virus Forcasting

United States of America

date Daily Covid-19 cases 3 days moving average forcased cases

4-Apr 47260
5-Apr 57632
6-Apr 62604
7-Apr 75319 55832
8-Apr 80236 65185
9-Apr 85492 72720
10-Apr 72412 80349
11-Apr 57425 79380
12-Apr 57225 71776
13-Apr 78090 62354
14-Apr 78958 64247
15-Apr 74376 71424
16-Apr 81600 77141
17-Apr 63625 78311
18-Apr 73200
19-Apr 48408
20-Apr 21208
21-Apr 0
22-Apr 0

Chart Title
120000

100000

80000

60000

40000

20000

A pr Ap
r
Ap
r
Ap
r
Ap
r
Ap
r pr pr pr pr pr pr pr pr pr pr pr
4- 5- 6- 7- 8- 9- 0-A 1-A 2-A 3-A 4-A 5-A 6-A 7-A 8-A 9-A 0-A -A
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 21

Daily Covid-19 cases 3 days moving average forcased cases

20000

A pr Ap
r
Ap
r
Ap
r
Ap
r
Ap
r pr pr pr pr pr pr pr pr pr pr pr
4- 5- 6- 7- 8- 9- 0-A 1-A 2-A 3-A 4-A 5-A 6-A 7-A 8-A 9-A 0-A -A
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 21

Daily Covid-19 cases 3 days moving average forcased cases

Exponential Smoothing 3 days weighted forcasted cases

website used: http://worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 Exponential Smoothing 3 days weighted forcasted cases MAPE; ALPHA 1

70067 5
36345 81759 4
50134 90790 2
59947 98453 5
88286 93691 8
101335 80518 1
86328 71787 4
46618 81229 3
49535 90056 2
68473 91827 1
72683 94502 36
85690
93184
68635
95593
103447

Weighted moving average

Recent day weight 3
2nd recent day weight 2
3rd most recent day weight 1

r pr pr pr pr pr pr
Ap -A -A -A -A -A -A
17 18 19 20 21 22

ge forcased cases
 r pr pr pr pr pr pr
Ap -A -A -A -A -A -A
17 18 19 20 21 22

ge forcased cases
asted cases

MAPE ERROR INTERPERTATION

MAPE error literally tranilates to MEAN ABSOLUTE PERCENTAGE ERROR
which informs the accuracy as a percentagntage is easily understandable so
the forcast is 32.66% off however it is quite reasonable because if the value is betw
50%which is under the limit then there is nothing to be concerned about
AGE ERROR
rstandable so
use if the value is betw less than
erned about