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Atlas of Future Plate Tectonic Reconstructions: Modern World to Pangea Proxima (+250 Ma)

Technical Report · March 2018

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.13645.74727

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Atlas  of  Future  Plate  Tectonic  Reconstructions:  

Modern  World  to  Pangea  Proxima  (+250  Ma)  

by  

Christopher  R.  Scotese  

March  1,  2018  

An  animated  version  of  the  maps  can  be  viewed  on  YouTube  at:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrtl8oMn-­‐U8  
  
   for  that  matter,  unless  we  have  a  clear  idea  of  the  
driving  mechanisms  of  plate  tectonics.  
Introduction  
During  the  intervening  years,  I  have  come  to  realize  
In  1982,  when  I  was  a  graduate  student,  I  was  asked   that  plates  are  driven  by  lithospheric  forces,  
by  Discover  magazine  to  produce  a  set  of  maps   primarily  “slab  pull”  and  “ridge  push”  (Scotese,  1993,  
showing  future  plate  motions  (Overbye,  1982).    I   2017,  see  Appendix  I).    Slab  pull  is  the  “tug”  that  
replied  that  I  thought  that  I  could  make  a  reasonable   plates  receive  from  the  subducting  oceanic  
extrapolation  of  current  plate  motions  50  million   lithosphere.    Ridge  push  is  the  “push”  plates  receive  
years  into  the  future.  However,  that  was  not   from  the  elevated  mid-­‐ocean  ridges.    This  elevation  
sufficient.    The  magazine  wanted  maps  for  50  million,   imparts  a  gravitational  “push”  much  like  the  push  a  
150  million  and  250  million  years  in  the  future!    I   skier  receives  going  down  a  ski  slope.  The  first  set  of  
thought  about  it  for  a  few  seconds,  and  then  decided   maps  imperfectly  used  these  plate  dynamics  to  
to  give  it  a  try.   propose  where  the  plates  might  go  in  the  future.    

I  realized  that  simply  projecting  current  plate   I  published  a  second  generation  of  future  maps  in  the  
motions  150  million  or  250  million  years  into  the   Atlas  of    Earth  History  (Scotese,  2001).    This  set  of  
future  would  not  work.    Too  much  can  change  during   maps  corrected  a  major  mistake  that    I  made  in  the  
that  length  of  time.    In  order  to  solve  the  problem  of   first  set  of  maps.    It  is  common  wisdom  that  the  rifts  
future  plate  motions  I  was  required  to  ask  some   of  East  Africa  represent  the  first  stage  in  the  
serious  questions  about  plate  dynamics.    What  drives   formation  of  a  new  ocean.    While  it  is  true  that  all  
the  plates?    Why  do  they  move  they  way  they  do?     intracontinental  ocean  basins  begin  their  life  as  a  
These  are  important  questions  for  anyone  that   continental  rift,  it  is  not  true  that  all  continental  rifts  
makes  plate  tectonic  reconstructions.    We  cannot   form  ocean  basins.    Some  rifts  are  aborted  or  “failed”  
make  maps  of  the  distant  future,  or  the  distant  past   rifts.    Sadly,  the  East  African  Rift  system  is  one  of  
these  failures.    The  principal  reason  that  a  new  ocean  
will  not  open  is  that  as  Africa  continues  to  drive   future  wandering  of  our  continents.    The  final  
northward  towards  Eurasia  the  East  African  Rift  (and   version  of  the  maps  will  appear  in  my  book,  “Earth  
also  the  Red  Sea  and  Gulf  of  Aden)  will  be  caught  up   History:  The  Evolution  of  the  Earth  System”,  which  I  
in  that  massive  collision  and  the  young,  thin  ocean   hope  to  finish  in  a  few  years.  
floor  will  be  squeezed  shut.  
The  following  section  is  made  up  of  ten  future  plate  
The  maps  presented  here  represent  my  third  attempt   tectonic  reconstructions,  each  with  an  extended  
at  predicting  future  plate  motions.  I  finished  these   figure  caption  that  describes  the  major  plate  tectonic  
maps  in  2004  and  added  plate  boundaries  in  2005.     features  and  events.    The  numbers  in  the  figure  
In  addition  to  maps  for  +50  million  years,  +150   caption  refer  to  the  circled  numbers  on  each  map.    
million  years,  and  +250  million  years,  I  added  eight   Yellow  lines  are  mid-­‐ocean  ridges.    Red  lines  are  
additional  maps  representing  plate  configurations  at   subduction  zones.    White  arrows  indicate  the  
25  million  year  intervals  into  the  future.    Also,  I   direction  of  plate  motion.    A  set  of  maps  without  the  
changed  the  name  of  the  supercontinent  that  appears   numbers  can  be  found  Appendix  II  of  this  report.  
at  +250  million  years  from  “Pangea  Ultima”  (which  
In  addition  to  a  summary  of  important  plate  tectonic  
sounded  awfully  final)  to  “Pangea  Proxima”  (the  next  
events,  I  have  included  a  description  of  important  
Pangea)    
geographic  changes,  e.g.  new  mountains  or  seas,  and  
For  the  last  15  years  the  maps  have  mostly  sat  on  my   have  estimated  the  global  climate  (i.e.,  icehouse,  
shelf  because  though  they  are  informed  speculation,   greenhouse  or  hothouse)  and  mean  global  
they  are  not  science.    We  can  never  really  know  what   temperature  based  on  a  climate  model  that  I  have  
the  future  holds.    However,  because  of  the  renewed   applied  to  ancient  times  (Scotese,  2016).  
interest  in  future  plate  tectonic  scenarios  (Battersby,  
 
2017),  I  decided  to  provide  a  more  detailed  outline  of  
my  thought  processes  when  I  drew  these  maps.    I    
think  you  will  enjoy  this  speculative  story  of  the  
 Map  1.    Modern  World   (16)arcs.    Africa  (17)  and  India/Australia  (18)  
continue  to  move  northward  towards  Eurasia.    
Plate  Tectonics  
Geography  
New  (Young)  Mid-­‐Ocean  Ridges:  Gulf  of  California  
(1),  Red  Sea  and  Gulf  of  Aden  (2).   High  mountains  run  E-­‐W  across  Eurasia  (19)  from  
the  Pyrenees  to  the  Burmese  Ranges  (20).    Andean-­‐
New    (Young)  Continental  Rifts:  East  African  Rift  
type  mountains  rim  the  Pacific  Ring  of  Fire.  
Zone  (3),  Lake  Baikal  (4),  Basin  &  Range  (Western  
USA)  (5)   Climate  

New  Subduction  Zones:    the  Capricorn  subduction   Warming,  bi-­‐polar  Ice  House.    Global  Temperature  
zone  (6)  in  Central  Indian  Ocean   15  ˚C  

New  Collisions:    Arabia  with  Iran  (Zagros  Mts.)  (7),  

Australia  with  Indonesia  (Highlands  of  New  Guinea)  
(8).  

Continuing  Plate  Tectonic  Processes:    The  Atlantic  

(9),  Arctic  (Eurasian  Basin)(10)  and  Indian  (11)  
Oceans  continue  to  widen.    The  Pacific  Ocean  
contracts  slightly.  Cocos-­‐Nazca  mid-­‐ocean  ridge  (12)  
is  subducted  beneath  Panama.    Honduras  (13)  slides  
eastward  as  the  Caribbean  plate  lengthens  (E-­‐W).    
Chile  Ridge  (14)  subducts  beneath  southwestern  
South  America.    Subduction  continues  around  Pacific  
“Ring  of  Fire”.    Westward-­‐directed  subduction  occurs  
beneath  the  Puerto  Rican  (15)  and  the  Scotia  
   Continuing  Plate  Tectonic  Processes:    Extension  
continues  in  the  Basin  &  Range  (Western  USA)  (14).    
Map  2.    +25  Million  Years  in  the  Future  
The  North  and  Central  Atlantic  begins  to  contract  as  
Plate  Tectonics   the  Mid-­‐Atlantic  Ridge  (15)  is  subducted  beneath  
Greenland.    The  South  Atlantic  contracts  as  ocean  
New  Mid-­‐Ocean  Ridges:    Gulf  of  California  (1)  
floor  is  subducted  beneath  eastern  South  America  
widens.    Zealandia  (2)  splits  in  two.    
(5).    The  Indian  Ocean  begins  to  contract  as  the  
New  Subduction  Zones:    A  new  island  arc  (3)forms   Central  Indian  Mid-­‐ocean  Ridge  is  subducted  
along  the  northern  edge  of  the  Capricorn  subduction   northward  beneath  the  Capricorn  Trench  (16).    The  
zone  in  Central  Indian  Ocean.    Capricorn  subduction   oceanic  gap  between  North  and  South  Zealandia  (2)  
zone  extends  eastwards  along  the  southern  margin   widens.    Honduras  (17)  slides  eastward  as  the  
of  Australia  (4).    Subduction  begins  along  eastern   Caribbean  plate  lengthens  (E-­‐W).    The  Chile  Ridge  
South  America  (5).  Subduction  begins  along  eastern   (18)  is  subducted  beneath  southwestern  South  
North  America  and  (6)  eastern  Greenland  and  an   America.  Subduction  around  Pacific  “Ring  of  Fire”  
island  arc  forms  across  the  entrance  to  the  Labrador   continues.    The  northward  movement  of  Africa  and  
Sea  (7).   India  (19)  towards  Eurasia  (20)  continues.    The  
western  margins  of  Australia  (21)  continue  to  
New  Collisions:    The  Red  Sea  (8)  and  Gulf  of  Aden  (9)  
collided  with  SE  Asia.  
close.  Contraction  and  uplift  (inversion)  occur  along  
the  length  of  the  East  Africa  Rift  (10).      Uplift  of  the   Geography   As  Africa  plows  northward  into  
Alps  (11)  is  renewed.    The  Mediterranean  Sea  (12)   Eurasia,  mountains  rise  along  the  border  of  this  
begins  to  narrow  as  Africa  is  pilled  northward  by   collision  zone  (11).    Island  arcs  and  Andean-­‐type  
subduction  in  the  eastern  Mediterranean  beneath  the   mountains  form  along  the  east  coasts  of  North  
Hellenic  arc.    Iberia  (13)  rotates  clock-­‐wise  closing   America  and  South  America.    Boston,  New  York  City,  
the  Bay  of  Biscay.       and  Washington  D.C.  (22)  are  carried  skyward  by  an  
erupting  volcanic  mountain  chain.    The  Basin  and  
Range  (14)  continues  to  stretch  and  subside.    
Shallow  seas  begin  to  invade  western  North  America.  

Climate   Mild  Green  House.    The  Antarctic  ice  cap  

has  melted,  though  a  small  region  of  continental  
glaciers  remain  in  central  Greenland.    Global  
Temperature  20  ˚C  
   beneath  Newfoundland  (11).    The  central  portion  of  
the  Mid-­‐Atlantic  Ridge  is  about  to  be  subducted  
Map  3.    +50  Million  Years  in  the  Future  
beneath  the  expanding  Lesser  Antilles  island  arc  (12)  
Plate  Tectonics   and  the  northeastern  margin  of  South  America.    
Ocean  floor  in  the  South  Atlantic  is  subducted  
New  Collisions:    The  Red  Sea  and  Gulf  of  Aden  (1)  are  
beneath  eastern  South  America  (13).    The  Indian  
completely  closed  as  Africa  collides  with  Arabia.  
Ocean  begins  to  contract  as  the  western  portion    of  
Ophiolites  (remants  of  ocean  floor)  are  obducted  
the  Southeast  Indian  Ridge  (14)  is  subducted  
along  the  eastern  shores  of  Egypt  and  Sudan.    Uplift  
northward  beneath  the  Capricorn  Trench.    Antarctica  
occurs  along  the  length  of  the  East  Africa  Rift  (2).    
(15)  is  drawn  northward  by  north-­‐directed  
The  northward  thrusting  Alps  push  into  central  
subduction  beneath  the  Capricorn  subduction  zone.    
France  and  central  Germany  (3).    The  Mediterranean  
The  oceanic  gap  between  North  and  South  Zealandia  
Sea  (4)  is  completely  closed.    Iberia  (5)  rotates  clock-­‐
widens  (16).    The  Chile  Ridge  is  subducted  beneath  
wise  consuming  ocean  floor  in  the  Bay  of  Biscay  and  
southwestern  South  America  (17).    The  east  coast  of  
collides  along  the  southwestern  margin  of  France.    
Madagascar  (18)  becomes  a  large  transcurrent  
Honduras  (6)  collides  with  northwestern  South  
strike-­‐slip  fault  (sinistral  offset).    Subduction  around  
America.  
Pacific  “Ring  of  Fire”  continues.    Australia  begins  to  
Continuing  Plate  Tectonic  Processes:    The  Gulf  of   collide  with  southeastern  China  (19)  closing  the  
California  (7)  continues  to  widen.    Baja  California   South  China  Sea.  
and  portions  of  western  California  (8)  slide  
Geography   As  Africa  continues  to  plow  
northward  towards  the  Gulf  of  Alaska.  Stretching  of  
northward  into  Eurasia,  mountains  rise  along  the  
continental  lithosphere  continues  in  the  Basin  &  
northern  border  of  this  collision  belt  (3).    The  Red  
Range(9)  (Western  USA).    The  North  and  Central  
Sea  and  Gulf  of  Aden  (1)  collapse  and  are  replaced  by  
Atlantic  Ocean  (10)  contract  and  the  northernmost  
mountain  ranges.    The  back-­‐arc  basins  of  Southeast  
portion  of  the  Mid-­‐Atlantic  Ridge  is  subducted  
Asia  (20)  are  replaced  by  mountain  ranges.  The  
Basin  and  Range  (9)  continue  to  stretch  and  subside.    
The  collision  of  India  with  Asia  (21)has  stopped  and  
the  Himalayas  and  Tibetan  plateau  begin  to  erode.  

Climate   Cooling  Greenhouse.    Global  Temperature  

18  ˚C  

 
   margin  of  South  America  (10).    The  Indian  Ocean  
begins  to  rapidly  contract  as  the  last  portions  of  the  
Map  4.    +75  Million  Years  in  the  Future  
Southeast  Indian  Ridge  (11)  have  been  completely  
Plate  Tectonics   subducted  beneath  the  Capricorn  Trench.    Antarctica  
(12)  is  drawn  rapidly  northward  by  subduction  
New  Mid-­‐Ocean  Ridges:    A  rift  forms  in  the  Weddell  
beneath  the  Capricorn  subduction  zone.    The  oceanic  
Sea  and  Ross  Sea  (1)  as  the  Western  Peninsula  of  
gap  between  North  and  South  Zealandia  (13)  widens.    
Antarctica  separates  from  cratonic  East  Antarctica.    A  
The  Chile  Ridge  (14)  is  nearly  subducted  beneath  
series  of  back-­‐arc  basins  open  north  of  Australia  (2)  
southwestern  South  America.  The  east  coast  of  
as  a  result  of  Australia’s  collision  with  SE  China.  
Madagascar  (15)  is  a  large  strike-­‐slip  fault  with  
New  Collisions:    The  northward  thrusting  Alps    push   sinistral  offset.      Subduction  around  Pacific  “Ring  of  
into  northern  Germany  and  Poland  (3).  Australia   Fire”  continues.    The  East  Pacific  Rise  (16)  
collides  with  China  (4)  completely  closing  the  South   approaches  the  subduction  zone  along  the  west  coast  
China  Sea.    Baja  California  and  portions  of  western   of  South  America.  
California  (5)  begin  to  collide  with  southern  Alaska.  
Geography   The  collision  of  Africa  with  Eurasia  
New  Subduction  Zones:    Subduction  begins  along  the   (3)  nears  its  peak.    The  Red  Sea  and  Gulf  of  Aden  (17)  
South  African  (6)  margin.   are  replaced  by  high  mountain  ranges.    The  back-­‐arc  
basins  of  SE  Asia  (4)  are  completely  replaced  by  high  
Continuing  Plate  Tectonic  Processes:      Extension  
mountain  ranges.  The  Basin  and  Range  stops  
continues  in  the  Basin  &  Range  (Western  USA)  (8).    
stretching  and  the  Californian  mountain  ranges  are  
The  North  and  Central  Atlantic  contract  as  the  last  
added  to  southern  Alaska  (5).    The  Himalayas  and  
portion  of  the  Mid-­‐Atlantic  Ridge  is  subducted  
Tibetan  plateaus    (18)  begin  to  erode.  
beneath  Labrador  (9)  and  the  Greater  Caribbean  
island  arc.    The  southern  portion  of  the  Mid-­‐Atlantic   Climate   Bipolar  Icehouse  (similar  to  the  Modern  
Ridge  is  about  to  be  subducted  beneath  the  eastern   world).    Global  Temperature  14  ˚.  
   Atlantic  Ridge,  the  Afro-­‐Asian  continent  (8)  is  pulled  
towards  South  America.    Antarctica  (9)  is  drawn  
Map  5.    +100  Million  Years  in  the  Future  
rapidly  northward  as  the  Southwest  Indian  Mid-­‐
Plate  Tectonics   Ocean  Ridge  (10)  is  subducted  beneath  South  Africa.    
The  Indian  Ocean  begins  to  close  as  the  ocean  floor  
New  Mid-­‐Ocean  Ridges:    The  Trans-­‐Antarctic  Ocean  
north  of  Antarctica  (9)  is  subducted  beneath  the  
(1)opens  as  the  Western  Peninsula  of  Antarctica  
Capricorn  Trench.    The  east  coast  of  Madagascar  (11)  
separates  from  cratonic  East  Antarctica.    
is  a  large  left-­‐lateral  strike-­‐slip  fault.    Subduction  
New  Continental  Rift:    A  intra-­‐continental  rift  forms   around  Pacific  “Ring  of  Fire”  continues.    The  East  
in  northeast  Siberia  (2)  as  Eurasia  is  pulled  away   Pacific  Rise  (12)  is  subducted  beneath  western  South  
from  North  America.   America.  

New  Collisions:    Baja  California  and  portions  of   Geography   The  collision  of  Africa  with  Eurasia  
western  California    (3)  collide  with  southern  Alaska.     (13)  has  reached  its  peak.    The  Red  Sea  and  Gulf  of  
The  Solomon-­‐New  Hebrides  trench  (4)  northeast  of   Aden  (14)  are  replaced  by  high  mountain  ranges.    
Australia  collides  with  the  Kamchatka-­‐Aleutian   The  back-­‐arc  basins  of  SE  Asia  (15)  are  completely  
subduction  zone.   replaced  by  high  mountain  ranges.  The  Basin  and  
Range  (16)  stops  stretching  and  the  Californian  
Continuing  Plate  Tectonic  Processes:    The  North  and  
mountain  ranges  are  added  to  southern  Alaska  (3).    
Central  Atlantic  Oceans  narrow  as  the  last  remnants  
The  Himalayas  and  Tibetan  plateaus  (17)  begin  to  
of  the  Mid-­‐Atlantic  Ridge  (5)  are  subducted  beneath  
erode.  
the  east  coast  of  North  America.    The  Afro-­‐Asian  
continent  (6)  is  pulled  toward  North  America.    The   Climate   Warming  Icehouse  (only  the  Northern  
last  remnant  of  the  Mid-­‐Atlantic  Ridge  (7)  in  the   Hemisphere  has  an  icecap).  Global  Temperature  16  
South  Atlantic  is  subducted  beneath  Argentina.    As  a   ˚C  
consequence  of  the  complete  subduction  of  the  Mid-­‐
   Climate   Mild  Greenhouse.    Global  Temperature  20  
˚C  
Map  6.    +125  Million  Years  in  the  Future  
 
Plate  Tectonics  

New  Mid-­‐Ocean  Ridges:    The  Trans-­‐Antarctic  Ocean  

widens  as  the  Western  Peninsula  of  Antarctica  
separates  from  cratonic  East  Antarctica  (1).    The  
Verkhoyansk  Ocean  (2)  opens  as  Chukotka,  attached  
to  North  America,  pulls  away  from  Siberia.  

Continuing  Plate  Tectonic  Processes:    Subduction  

continues  along  the  eastern  margins  of  North  
America,  the  Caribbean  plate,  South  America,  and  the  
Scotia  plate  (3).    The  Atlantic  Ocean  begins  to  close  
as  the  Afro-­‐Asian  (4)  continent  is  pulled  toward  
North  America  and  South  America.    The  Indian  Ocean  
(5)  is  nearly  closed  as  the  ocean  floor  north  of  
Antarctica  disappears  into  the  Capricorn  Trench.    

Geography   Antarctica  (6)  moves  into  tropical  

waters.    The  mountainous  areas  of  East  Africa,  Iran,  
and  Tibet  (7)  are  rapidly  worn  down.    High  mountain  
ranges  mark  the  collision  belt  between  Australia  and  
China.  (8)    The  Himalayas  and  Tibetan  plateaus  (7)  
are  less  than  half  their  original  height.  
   to  collide  with  Java,  Borneo  and  southwestern  
Australia.  
Map  7.    +150  Million  Years  in  the  Future  
Continuing  Plate  Tectonic  Processes:      Westward-­‐
Plate  Tectonics  
directed  subduction  continues  along  the  eastern  
New  Subduction  Zones:    Antarctica’s  northward   margins  of    (8)  North  America,  the  Caribbean  plate,  
motion  is  halted  due  to  its  collision  with  the  island   South  America,  and  the  Scotia  plate  closing  the  
arcs  of  the  Capricorn  Trench  (1).    A  new  subduction   Atlantic  Ocean.    The  Trans-­‐Antarctic  Ocean  begins  to  
zone  forms  along  the  southern,  trailing  edge  of   close  as  the  Western  Peninsula  of  Antarctica  
Antarctica  (2).    This  new  Trans-­‐Antarctic  subduction   approaches  East  Antarctica.  (4)    The  Verkhoyansk  
zone  (3)  links  up  with  the  South  African  subduction   Ocean    (9)  opens  as  Chukotka  and  North  America  
zone  to  the  west  (3)  and  the  South  Australian   pull  away  from  Siberia.    The  Verkhoyansk  Ridge  (10)  
subduction  zone  to  the  east  (3).    As  a  consequence,   links  up  with  the  Trans-­‐Antarctic  Ridge.  
the  Trans-­‐Antarctic  Ocean  (4)  is  subducted  
Geography    The  mountainous  areas  of  (11)  East  
northward  and  begins  to  close.    The  subduction  zone  
Africa,  Iran,  northern  India,  Tibet  and  SE  China  
along  eastern  Asia  (5)extends  northward  and  links  
occupy  warm,  wet,  tropical  latitudes  are  rapidly  
with  the  subduction  zone  running  northward,  across  
erode.    A  collisional  mountain  range  lies  along  the  
the  North  Pole  from  Greenland.  
northern  margin  of  equatorial  Antarctica  (1)  and  an  
New  Collisions:    Antarctica  collides  with  the  islands   Andean-­‐style  mountain  range  (12)  lies  along  its  
arcs  of  the  Capricorn  Trench  (6),  Sumatra,  and   southern  margin.    Andean-­‐style  mountains  rim  the  
northwest  Australia  closing  the  Indian  Ocean.    This  is   (13)  western  margins  of  North  America  and  South  
the  first  collision,  in  a  series  of  four  major  collisions,   Anmerica.  
that  ultimately  forms  the  supercontinent  of  Pangea  
Climate   Mild  Greenhouse.    Global  Temperature  21  
Proxima.    The  southern  half  of  Zealandia  (7)  is  about  
˚C  
   east  of  Africa,  south  of  India,  and  north  of  Antarctica  
is  nearly  cut-­‐off  from  the  other  oceans  begins  to  
Map  8.    +175  Million  Years  in  the  Future  
stagnate.  
Plate  Tectonics  
Climate   Warming  Greenhouse.    Global  
New  Collisions:    The  southern  half  of  Zealandia  (1)   Temperature  23  ˚C  
has  collided  with  Java,  Borneo  and  southwestern  
 
Australia.  

Continuing  Plate  Tectonic  Processes:      Westward-­‐

directed  subduction  along  the  eastern  margins  of  (2)  
North  America,  the  Caribbean  plate,  South  America,  
and  the  Scotia  plate  continues  to  rapidly  close  the  
Atlantic  Ocean.    The  Trans-­‐Antarctic  Ridge  is  
subducted  beneath  East  Antarctica  and  the  Trans-­‐
Antarctic  Ocean  rapidly  closes.    The  Verkhoyansk  
Ocean  widens  as  Chukotka  and  North  America  (4)  
pull  away  from  Siberia.    The  subduction  zone  along  
eastern  Asia  (5)extends  northward  and  links  with  
the  subduction  zone  running  northward  from  
Greenland.      

Geography    The  mountainous  areas  of  (6)East  

Africa,  Iran,  Tibet  and  SE  China  occupy  warm,  wet,  
tropical  latitudes  are  rapidly  worn  down.    The  
remnant  of  the  northern  Indian  Ocean  (7),  which  lies  
   and  the  Trans-­‐Antarctic  subduction  zone  (9)  
approach  each  other.        
Map  9.    +200  Million  Years  in  the  Future  
Geography    The  mountainous  areas  of  (10)  East  
Plate  Tectonics  
Africa,  Iran,  Tibet  and  SE  China  occupy  warm,  wet,  
New  Collisions:    The  last  remnants  of  the  Trans-­‐ tropical  latitudes  and  have  been  worn  down.  The  
Antarctic  seaway  are  subducted  beneath  Antarctica   once  lofty  Himalayas  (11)  are  reduced  in  size  
(1)  and  southwestern  Australia  as  the  Western   comparable  to  the  Appalachian  mountains.  The  
Peninsula  (2)  of  Antarctic  rapidly  approaches.       MediPangean  Sea,  which  lies  east  of  Africa,  south  of  
India,  and  north  of  Antarctica  is  nearly  enclosed  and  
Continuing  Plate  Tectonic  Processes:      Westward-­‐
continues  to  stagnate.  
directed  subduction  along  the  eastern  margins  of  (3)  
North  America,  the  Caribbean  plate,  South  America,   Climate   Hot  House.    Global  Temperature  24  ˚C  
and  the  Scotia  plate  has  nearly  closed  the  Atlantic  
Ocean.    Newfoundland  (4)  is  on  a  collision  course  
with  West  Africa  (Guinea).  The  Greater  Caribbean  
island  arc  (5)  and  eastern  Brazil  are  less  than  1000  
km  from  southern  Africa.    A  circum-­‐Pangean  mid-­‐
ocean  ridge  system  (6)  encircles  the  assembling  
supercontinent.    The  subduction  zone  along  eastern  
Asia  (7)  extends  northward  and  links  with  the  
subduction  zone  running  northward  from  Greenland.    
The  Greater  Caribbean  –  Eastern  South  American  
subduction  zone  intersects  with  the  South  African  
subduction  zone  (8).    The  Scotia  Arc  subduction  zone  
   ridge  system  (12)  lies  outboard  of  that  subduction  
zone  (the  Circum-­‐Pangean  Mid-­‐ocean  Ridge)    
Map  10.    +225  Million  Years  in  the  Future  
Geography      The  remnants  of  the  Atlantic  Ocean  is  
New  Collisions:    Newfoundland  (1)  collides  with  
now  a  large  inland  sea  (the  Atlantic  Sea  (4)).    A  
West  Africa.      The  eastern  tip  of  Brazil  (2)  collides  
narrow  Caribbean  Seaway  (5)  separates  Yucatan  and  
with  the  southern  tip  of  Africa.    The  Greater  
Honduras  from  northern  South  America.    The  
Caribbean  island  arc  (3)  has  collided  and  has  been  
mountainous  areas  of  (13)  East  Africa,  Iran,  Tibet  
obducted  along  the  southwestern  margin  of  Africa.    
and  SE  China  occupy  warm,  wet,  tropical  latitudes  
These  collisions  form  a  series  of  semi-­‐isolated  seas  
and  have  been  largely  eroded.    Only  the  remnants  of  
and  seaways  (Atlantic  Sea  (4),  Caribbean  Seaway  (5),  
the  Himalayas,  Tibetan  plateau,  and  Afro-­‐Eurasia  
the  Austral  Sea  (6),  and  the  Medi-­‐Pangean  Sea  (7)).    
mountain  belt  remain.    The  enclosed  Medi-­‐Pangean  
The  eastern  tip  of  the  Falkland  Plateau  (8)  is  about  to  
Sea  (7),  which  lies  east  of  Africa,  south  of  India,  and  
be  subducted  beneath  East  Antarctica.  The  Western  
north  of  Antarctica  continues  to  stagnate.  
Peninsula  of  Antarctic  (9)  has  collided  with  
southwestern  Australia.   Climate    Warming  Hot  House.    Global  Temperature  
26  ˚C  
Continuing  Plate  Tectonic  Processes:    The  last  bits  of  
ocean  floor  in  the  Atlantic  Sea  (4)  and  Austral  Sea  (6)    
are  being  removed  by  subduction.    The  Eastern  South  
American  subduction  zone  (10)  and  the  Trans-­‐
Antarctic  subduction  zone  approach  each  other.    A  
nearly  complete  circum-­‐Pangean  subduction  zone  
(11)  (the  New  Ring  of  Fire)  encircles  the  assembling  
supercontinent  (Pangea  Proxima).    A  mid-­‐ocean  
   Panthalassic  Ocean).    The  mountainous  areas  of  (9)  
East  Africa,  Iran,  Tibet  and  SE  China  occupy  warm,  
Map  11.    +250  Million  Years  in  the  Future    -­  “Pangea  
wet,  tropical  latitudes  have  been  worn  down.    Only  
Proxima”  
remnants  of  the  Afro-­‐Eurasia  mountain  belt  and  
New  Collisions:    Greenland  and  North  America  (1)     Sino-­‐Australian  mountains  remain.    The  completely  
have  collided  with  western  Africa  forming  the  west-­‐ enclosed  Medi-­‐Pangean  Sea  (5)  becomes  a  super-­‐
central  portion  of  Pangea  Proxima.    Florida  and  the   toxic  inland  sea  that  begins  to  poison  the  
southeastern  United  States  (2)    have  collided  with   surrounding  oceans,  lands  and  atmosphere  leading  
southwestern  Africa.    A  narrow,  stagnant  sea  (the   the  next  great  extinction  event.  
Atlantic  Sea)  (3)  is  all  that  remains  of  the  Atlantic  
Climate   Extreme  Hot  House.    Global  Temperature  
Ocean.    The  northeastern  and  eastern  margin  of  
28  ˚C  
South  America  (4)    has  collided  with  South  Africa  and  
East  Antarctica  forming  the  southwestern  portion  of    
Pangea  Proxima.    Medi-­‐Pangean  Sea  (5)  is  now  
completely  enclosed  by  the  continents  that  comprise  
Pangea  Proxima.    

Continuing  Plate  Tectonic  Processes:    A  circum-­‐

Pangean  subduction  zone  (6)  (the  New  Ring  of  Fire)  
encircles  Pangea  Proxima.    A  mid-­‐ocean  ridge  system  
(the  Circum-­‐Proxima  Mid-­‐ocean  Ridge)  (7)  lies  
outboard  of  that  subduction  zone.    

Geography      The  new  supercontinent,  Pangea  

Proxima,  is  surrounded  by  a  global  ocean,  the  
Propanthalassic  Ocean  (8)  (meaning  “future”  
  

Summary  &  Conclusions  

Figures  &  Maps  

   Paper  74-­‐31.  
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/309324
References  Cited  
713_A_NEW_GLOBAL_TEMPERATURE_CURVE_FOR_
  THE_PHANEROZOIC  

Batterby,  S.,  20176.  The  Next  Supercontinent,  New    

Scientist,  (October),  p.  34  –  37.    

Overbye,  D.,  1982.    The  Shape  of  Tomorrow,  Discover  

Magazine,  p.  20-­‐25.  

Scotese,  1993.    Plate  Tectonic  Rules  of  Thumb,  

PALEOMAP  Project,  Department  of  Geology,  
University  of  Arlington,  Arlington  Texas.    

Scotese,  2014.    Appendix  I.  The  12  Rules  of  Plate  

Tectonics,  in  Atlas  of  Plate  Tectonic  Reconstructions,  
PALEOMAP  Project,  Evanston,  IL,  DOI  
10.13140/2.1.1046.4967,    

www.academia.edu/9712803/Atlas_of_Plate_Tectoni
c_Reconstructions_Mollweide_Projection_Volumes_1-­‐
6_PALEOMAP_Project_PaleoAtlas_for_ArcGIS_PALEO
MAP_Project_Evanston_IL  

Scotese,  C.R.,  2016.  A  Global  Temperature  Curve  for  

the  Phanerozoic,  Geological  Society  of  America  
Annual  Meeting,  Denver,  Abstracts  with  Program,  
 The 12 Rules of Plate Tectonics

C.R. Scotese 12/19/93; updated 03/31/17

Rule I. Plates move only if they're pushed or pulled, not dragged (mostly).
• The mantle plays a passive role.
o The pattern of flow in the mantle is largely driven by lithospheric motions.
• The motion of the mantle does not drive the plates (by mantle drag).
o The idea of organized convection cells upon which the plates ride is wrong (though intuitively
attractive - unfortunately!).
• Oceanic plates move faster than continental plates.
o Oceanic plates tend to have ridges (pushing) and attached subducting slabs (pulling).
o At the base of oceanic plates in the LVZ (low velocity zone), a region of partial melting that
provides 'lubrication" at the base of the plates and mostly decouples an oceanic plate from
underlying mantle movement.
• Plates with a large area of continent move slowly (e.g., Eurasia) because they have a deep continental
keel imbedded in the mantle.
o Continental plates are more likely to be caught in the mantle flow.
• Plates (oceanic or continental) that are surrounded by ridges tend to move slowly (e.g Africa,
Antarctica).
o The push from the encircling ridges "cancels out".
• Plates that are not driven by ridge push or slab pull do not move (Caribbean plate, Scotia plate).
• In all cases plate motion can be understood and predicted by "balancing the forces" that drive and
resist plate motion (driving: slab pull & ridge push, resisting: mantle drag).

Rule II. Subduction Rules.

• Slab Pull is more important than Ridge Push (80% vs 20% of driving force).
o Fast moving plates (>5 cm/yr), are attached to subducting slabs (e.g. Pacific, Nazca, Cocos,
Indian)
• The Phanerozoic speed limit is ~20 cm/yr (India, 65 Ma)
o Convenient yardstick: 10 cm/yr = 1° per million year = 111 km/my
• Where there is subduction, there is spreading or rifting. (The converse is not true.)

Rule III. Mid-Ocean Ridges are Passive Features.

• Mid-ocean ridges are there because the crust, which is weak in tension, breaks when it is pulled.
o Continental crust breaks first, because at the same depth it's closer to its melting temperature.
o Oceanic crust rarely breaks; when it does it breaks where it has been weakened by a hot spot or
subduction related volcanism.
• Mid-Ocean Ridges tend to align parallel to trenches.
• One ridge is all you need.
o You'll never see two ridges spreading side-by-side.
• Fracture zones point to the trench.
• A mid-ocean ridge that is not moving for 10’s of millions of years (in an absolute frame of
reference), becomes “stuck” above a deep-seated mantle upwelling.

Rule IV. Subduction is Forever.

• Collision is the only way to stop subduction.
o You need big, gob-stopping continent-continent collision, otherwise subduction zone will
"jump over" the colliding terrane. (e.g Capricorn trench in Central Indian Ocean).
• Subduction is hard to start.
o Most likely mechanisms: terrane collision or a “subduction virus”.
o A subduction zone that enters a new ocean can act as a trigger or focus for the start of
subduction along an old, cold, heavily loaded passive margin (e.g. Puerto Rican trench and
Atlantic passive margin).
• Subduction graveyards exist in the mantle.
o Old slabs can be detected by seismic anisotropy, which means that some seismic waves
travel faster through cooler material (old slabs) than warmer material (mantle).

Rule V. Pacific versus Tethyan Subduction Systems

• Pacific Subduction Systems(PSS) are characterized by a ring of subduction with a spreading ridge in
the middle (e.g. Ring of Fire).
o PSS are stable and can continue subducting for hundreds of millions of years. (As long as the
central ridge doesn't get too close to a trench and gets subducted!)
o They generate long-lived Andean-style margins or marginal back-arc basins.
• Tethyan Subduction Systems (TSS) are asymmetric or "one-sided".
o There is only one subducting margin (like Tethys).
o On the other side of "Tethys" is a passive margin.
o The ridge in the middle of Tethys must move towards the trench and is eventually subducted.
o Because there is no longer a ridge in the subducting ocean, a newrift must form.
o The rift forms in the continental plate that is now being "pulled "towards the Tethyan trench.
o These new slab pull forces either tear a chunk of continent away from the margin (India), or break
the continent apart(breakup of Pangea).
o The latter in more likely to happen if the continent is weakened by old collision zones or new
hotspots.

Rule VI. Plates Subduct Normally.

• Oblique convergence is more work; orthogonal convergence(perpendicular to continental margin) is
least work.
o Displaced terranes originate in areas of oblique convergence.
o The highest mountains along Andean-style margins are in areas of oblique convergence (In NA
that's Mt. McKinley).

Rule VII. The Style of Convergent margin depends of the absolute motions of the plates.
• Andean margins - net convergence (~10 cm/yr)
• Western Pacific margins - net divergence (roll back 1-2 cm/yr)
Rule VIII. Island Arcs don't ride their trenches across oceans.
• Back arc basins never evolve into wide (>30,000 km) ocean basins.
o You'll never find an continental island arc in the middle of an ocean.
o There is always a continent nearby.
o 90% of all ophiolites form in back-arc basins.

Rule IX. Slab Rollback Can Create Odd Intracontinental Ocean Basins
• Oceanic lithosphere can become trapped (encircled) by continents (e.g. Mediterranean, Arctic, Tethys
north of Alps).
o Small, short-lived subduction zones can consume this ocean floor creating
intracontinentalextension and small "odd " ocean basins (e.g. Tyrhennian Sea, Pannonian Basin,
Makarov Basin).

Rule X. Mantle Plumes (i.e. Hot Spots) are Important (Sort of)
• Hot Spots are derived from the core/mantle boundary (mostly).
• They provide a "good enough" reference frame for absolute plate motions.
o Some Hot Spots are Fixed; Some Aren't
• Hot Spots are organized in "proper groups"
o The Indian-Atlantic Proper Group has been fixed to spin axis since the Triassic.
o The Pacific Hotspots (Hawaii) have moved about 200 km in 100 my.
• Hot Spots "help" break apart continents.
o They create areas of weakness in the continental lithosphere.
o Thermal uplift associated with mantle plumes causes uplift which helps to "push" the
continents apart (like ridge push).
• Important: Mantle Plumes and hot spots do not break apart continents. They just make the job easier.
The heavy lifting is done by slab pull forces.
• Hot spots under moving plates speed them up, a bit.
o They thin the continent's "mantle keel" that usually slows plate motion.
o They "grease the skids" by melting the base of the lithosphere (decreasing mantle drag forces).
• If mantle plumes and hot spots did not exist, the plates would still move, continents would still break
apart, move across the globe and collide!
o But the things would be less interesting!

Rule XI. Continental Collisions are Important (Really Important)

• A continental collision destroys a subduction zone.
o That causes the global balance of plate driving forces to change.
• Continental collision zones (sutures) provide long-lived zones of weakness in the crust that are likely
to become future sites of continental rifting.
o A continent with many sutures will be weak and easily deformed (e.g. Asia following collision
with India).
• A continental collision typically takes ~50 million years.
 Rule XII. Plate Tectonics is a Catastrophic System (but not chaotic).
• Plate motions are generally gradual; but every once and a while "WHAM"!
o "Long periods of boredom interrupted by short moments of terror"
o Because plate boundaries are metastable. Geometries can interact in unpredictable ways to
produce global plate tectonic "events".
• 2 Important Instabilities: 1) continent-continent collision & 2) ridge subduction.
o Continental collisions can cause new trenches to form.
o India's rapid northward flight & the breakup of Pangea were due to ridge subduction.
o Both of these events cause rapid, global falls in sea-level
o Continental collision increases the volume of ocean basins because the area of continental
lithosphere decreases.
o Ridge subduction increases the volume of ocean basins by decreasing the average age of the
oceanic lithosphere.
o Ridge subduction both breaks supercontinents apart and brings them back together (Wegener /
Wilson Cycle).
•Supercontinents form and break apart because of the metastable nature of plate evolution.

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