Afghanistan Stability / COIN Dynamics =

Significant
Delay
Population/Popular Support
Infrastructure, Economy, & Services
Government
Afghanistan Security Forces
Insurgents
Crime and Narcotics
Coalition Forces & Actions
Physical Environment

ANSF &
Coalition
Damages/
Casualties OUTSIDE SUPPORT
ANSF
ISR / Open
Source Ops Total
Security Targeted
TO INSURGENT Counter- Narcotics/
Crime Ops
Force
Capacity &
Strikes
Ins. Damages FACTIONS
TACTICAL ANSF Unit
Focus Sweep Ops
(Clear) & Casualties
Fear of
Gov’ t/ANSF/
Coalition
Coalition Leadership ANSF Policing & Repercussions
& Tactical Capacity, Security Ops Outside
Knowledge Havens / Ability to Support/
& Underst. Coalition Capacity Priorities & (Hold)
‘COIN Effectiveness Operate Enablement
of Social ANSF of Ins.
Structures Support’
Strategy & Manpower Ins. Coordination
Recruiting & ANSF Avg. Offensives & Among Ins.
Duration of Unity Coalition Professionalism Insurgent
Operation Retention Territory Not Presence Factions Ins. Terrain
Adjustment Skill, Discipline, Under Gov’t Insurgent
Coalition of Approach & Morale (Clear & Hold) Leadership, Advantage
ANSF Control (Afghan Recruiting,
Appropriate to Fit Afghan Training, Skill Retention,
Balance of
Effort & ANSF
ANSF
Training & ANSF Appropriate
Use of Force
& Pakistan)

Ins. Provision
& Experience Manpower Criminal/
& ISR Trafficking
Force Institutional &
Execution
Coalition Capacity
Mentoring
INSTITUTIONAL Of Gov’t &
Services
Insurgent
Capacity,
INSURGENTS
Ties to
Capability &
Coercion
Dev. Ops- ANSF Perceived Priorities &
Coalition Corruption & Damages & Narcotics &
Avg COIN Coalition ANSF Ins. Strategic Effectiveness
Tribal Other Criminal
Experience Execution Commun/IO Use of Force
& Skill Capacity &
Priorities
Advisory
& Aid
Favoritism
R.O.L. Policy,
Execution &
Perceived
& Affiliation w/
Population
by Ins.
Ins. Targeted
Attacks on
Progress/
Funding Funding &
Material
NARCOTICS
Fairness Support to
ANSF Perceived Support Relative Insurgents Likelihood of
COALITION Coalition Funding
Visibility to Adequacy
Population
Gov't
Security
Policy Relative
Damages/Use
of Force by
Gov’ t & Coalition
for Gov’t Popular
Support/
/Tolerance
Crime/Violence
/Ins. Support
for Payment
Perception of
CAPACITY &
Resource Coalition
Levels Strategic
Coalition
Dev. Ops- Coalition/Homeland
Quality &
Investment
Message
Quality
Gov’t ’vs Ins.
Insurgent
Strength &
Gov’t vs
Insurgents Narcotics
& Criminal
Activity
(Mil. & Civ. Commun./IO Gov’t Acceptance of Intent
PRIORITIES
Forces,
Aid Levels)
Advisory Afghan Methods
& Aid
OVERALL POPULATION Levels
Gov't/ANSF Population
Central Gov't
GOVERNMENT
Strategic
Commun/ CONDITIONS Actively
Supporting
Population
Sympathizing
Neutral/On
the Fence
Population
Sympathizing
Population
Actively
Supporting
US Gov't
CENTRAL Institutional &
Execution
IO
& BELIEFS Fear of Ins.
Gov’t & SF w/ Gov’t w/ Insurgents
Insurgency IllegitAgric
Production,
Support for
Operation GOV’T
Gov't
Capacity
CAPACITY Relative
Message
Relative WOM
Message
Amplification
Attack/
Repercussions
Trade &
Employment

Breadth of
Funding
Adequacy
Gov't Training
Gov't
Integration of
Impact Gov’t
vs Ins
Gov’t vs Ins POPULAR Potential
Attractiveness
of Gov’t vs.
Terrain
Western Harshness
US Domestic Coalition &
Perceived
Cost/Benefit
Support Mentoring,
Vetting, and Gov't
Workforce
Local Tribal
Structures Affiliation
Backlash Perception of
Coalition Intent
SUPPORT Insurgent Path & Breadth
Duration
of
Operation
Hiring
& Support Skill & Avail & Commitment Perception Fraction of
Of Gov’t Workforce
US Domestic/ Transparency Strength
of Gov’t Gov't And Agric.
Int'l Strategic Overall Gov't Strength of & Intent Legit vs
Commun. Processes & Professionalism Reach, Illegit
Investments Policy Quality Execution Religious Legit Agric
& Diplomacy Ideology &
COALITION
Media
& Fairness Capacity &
Investment Tribal
Structures Cultural Erosion/ Ability to
Satisfaction
w/ Gains in Infrastructure
Private Sector Production
Workforce
Skill & Avail
Sensationalism
DOMESTIC
Bias
TRIBAL
Recognition/
Displacement Reconcile
Religious
Ideology,
Security, Services Dev. Adequacy
& Employment Visible Gains & Sustainment Population
Basic Needs
Gov't/ In Security,
SUPPORT
Coalition
Contractor
Corruption &
Engagement to
GOVERNANCE
Integrate
Tribal
Ethnic/Tribal
Rivalry
Tribal
Structures
w/ Gov’t
Services &
Employment
Service Levels
& Employment
Dev.Ops- Tribal Favoritism Structures& Expectations Legit Other Civilian Legit vs.Illegit
Path for Security, Relative
Infrastructure, Beliefs Production Services
Services, Average Services, & & Services (SWET, Economic
Econ. Tax Connectedness Employment Non- Agric Healthcare, Opportunity
Advisory Revenues Perceived
of Population Security Education)
& Aid
INFRASTRUCTURE,
Ability to
Move
People
Private Sector Legit Economic
Infr, Services, Econ.
Policy & Execution
SERVICES & Rapidly
Capital Mgmt.,
& Goods Investment &
Spending
Activity,
Trade &
Employment
Provide
Humanitarian
Relief
/Perceived Fairness
ECONOMY

WORKING DRAFT – V3

© PA Knowledge Limited 2009 Page 22