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Initiate at Buy: Democratizing Synthetic Biology For The Masses
Initiate at Buy: Democratizing Synthetic Biology For The Masses
Initiate at Buy: Democratizing Synthetic Biology For The Masses
Big picture. The genomics revolution of the past 20 years enabled researchers to FY P/E NM NM NM NM
affordably read DNA at scale. The next revolution in life sciences will be driven by
synthetic biology applications that enable researchers to write, or recode DNA, to address Chart 1 - Attractive Razor/Razor Blade
Model: >1,200 Instruments & Reagent
large new oppt'ys in healthcare. DNAY has developed the first & only automated, push- Annuity >$50K by '25
button workstation, the BioXp, which is democratizing synthetic biology by simplifying 1,400
BioXp 3200/3250
$60,000
the complex & lengthy process of building synthetic DNA & mRNA at the bench. 1,200 BioXp 9600
BioXp Oligo
$50,000
writing synthetic DNA and mRNA, which today requires using multiple CROs or complex 600
$20,000
manual steps in-house. The BioXp brings automation & standardization to the process,
400
$10,000
200
customers noted speed is the main benefit, as well as accuracy & IP security.
'20 '21E '22E '23E '24E '25E
40.0x
SEER
30.0x
EV/FY23E Revs
Razor/razor blade model; Robust new product pipeline. DNAY makes the kits & reagents
25.0x TWST
20.0x TXG
that run on the BioXp system, creating an attractive razor/razor blade model. It has 15.0x BLI
MASS
10.0x NSTG DNAY
a robust pipeline of new systems (BioXp 9600 in '22 = higher-throughput; BioXp oligo 5.0x PSNL
AKYA
printer in '23) & content (new mRNA & protein synthesis kits in '22), which we expect to 0.0x
0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%
drive its installed base to >1,200 systems & reagent annuity/box to >$50K by '25. Source: Factset, Jefferies estimates.
Solid management team. CEO Dr. Todd Nelson (owns ~20% of DNAY) has strong
scientific & operational expertise having run three life sci. co's over the past ~15 yrs,
Brandon Couillard *
including CEO of eBiosciences (acquired by AFFX in 2012). CTO Dr. Dan Gibson invented Equity Analyst
the "Gibson Assembly" method for stitching together DNA fragments & is widely regarded (212) 284-2462
as a luminary in molecular biology. bcouillard@jefferies.com
Matthew Stanton *
Attractive valuation. DNAY trades at ~10.5x our '23E revs, a healthy discount to other
Equity Associate
early-stage, high-growth tools comps (median: 17.5x). Our $23 PT implies an EV of 15x (615) 963-8397
'23E revs, even though we could potentially argue for a premium over time, given DNAY's mstanton@jefferies.com
superior growth outlook ('21-23E CAGR: +94% vs ~30%). We see scope for multiple
Peter Apockotos *
expansion as mgmt executes post-IPO and investors gain greater conviction in the future Equity Associate
growth runway & pipeline oppt'y. (615) 963-8377
papockotos@jefferies.com
Please see analyst certifications, important disclosure information, and information regarding the status of non-US analysts on
pages 29 to 34 of this report.
* Jefferies LLC / Jefferies Research Services, LLC
EQUITY RESEARCH
Codex DNA Inc (DNAY)
| Scenarios
Estimates
USD 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E
Base Case
Rev. (MM) 6.6 12.6 20.3 47.6
'21 revs: $12.5M w/ ~60 new system placements / ~$11K
avg utilization per system
Previous
'23 revs: ~$48M w/ ~200 new placements / ~$38K avg
EPS utilization per system
Q1 - (0.24)A - - 2H22: BioXp 9600 system launch
Previous
Break-even in '25/26 on ~$125M of revenue
Q2 - (0.34) - -
No value for future BioXp Needle-Ready Vaccine Printer
Previous System
Q3 - (0.25) - - Price Target: $23 based on DCF, implies EV of 15x our '23E
Previous revs
Q4 - (0.24) - -
Upside Scenario
Previous
'21 revs: $20M w/ ~100 new system placements
FY Dec (0.58) (1.07) (1.30) (1.01)
'23 revs: $70M; 250-300 new placements/yr; ~$50K
Previous annuity pull-thru
Faster-than-expected adoption across biopharma
Valuation customer base
2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E Breakeven EBIT by 2024
EV/Rev 92.7x 48.5x 30.1x 12.9x Price target: $40 = ~$1.2B market cap, based on ~18x
'23E revs (in line with other emerging, high-growth tools
P/Rev 77.1x 40.4x 25.1x 10.7x
comps)
FY P/E NM NM NM NM
Downside Scenario
'21 revs: ~$10M with ~40 new system placements
Market Data
52-Week Range: $25.70 - $16.50 '23 revs: $35M w/ ~100 new placements/yr; ~$20K avg
utilization
Total Entprs. Value $611.7M
Slower-than-expected adoption; pipeline delays
Avg. Daily Value MM (USD) 6.76
Challenges/delays activating new OUS commercial
Float (%) 24.8% channels
Price target: $12 = ~$370M market cap, based on ~10x
'23E revs
| Catalysts
Quarterly earnings
New pipeline product launches, including new kits &
BioXp instrument introductions
Higher utilization pull-thru per BioXp system
Greater investor visibility/awareness post-IPO
Big picture. The genomics revolution of the past 20 years enabled researchers to affordably read DNA at scale. The next revolution in life
sciences will be driven by synthetic biology applications that enable researchers to write, or recode DNA, to address large new
opportunities in healthcare.
DNAY has developed the first & only automated, pushbutton workstation, the BioXp, which is democratizing synthetic biology by
simplifying the complex & lengthy process of building synthetic DNA & mRNA at the bench.
We see a long runway for future BioXP systems (“DNA writers”) relative to the ~15,000+ NGS systems (“DNA readers”) installed globally
DNAY’s differentiated solution… DNAY's BioXp platform addresses multiple bottlenecks involved in writing synthetic DNA and mRNA,
which today requires using multiple CROs or complex manual steps in-house. The BioXp brings automation & standardization to the
process, dramatically accelerating turnaround times (days instead of weeks).
In our channel checks, customers noted speed is the main benefit of using the BioXp in-house, as well as accuracy & IP security.
Large, rapidly growing TAM. The synthetic biology market is expected to grow at a ~30% CAGR, from $5.3B in '19, to ~$19B by '24.
Within this, enabling technologies, such as DNAY's workflow solutions, represents a $2-3B TAM for synthetic DNA & mRNA production,
most of which is not already outsourced.
Razor/razor blade model; Robust new product pipeline. DNAY manufactures all the kits & reagents that run on the BioXp system,
creating an attractive razor/razor blade model…
DNAY has a robust pipeline of new instruments (BioXp 9600 in '22 = higher-throughput; BioXp oligo printer in '23) & content (three
new mRNA & protein synthesis kits in '21/22), which we expect to drive its installed base to >1,200 systems & reagent annuity to >
$50K/box by ‘25.
Solid management team, deep scientific background. CEO Dr. Todd Nelson (owns ~20% of DNAY) has strong scientific &
operational expertise having run three life sci. co's over the past ~15 yrs, including CEO of eBiosciences (acquired by AFFX in 2012). CTO
Dr. Dan Gibson invented the “Gibson Assembly” method for stitching together DNA fragments & is widely regarded as a luminary in
molecular biology.
Attractive valuation. DNAY trades at ~10.5x our '23E revs, a healthy discount to other early stage, high-growth tools comps (median:
17.5x). Our $23 PT implies an EV of 15x '23E revs, even though we could potentially argue for a premium over time, given DNAY's
superior growth outlook ('21-23E CAGR: +94% vs ~30%). We see scope for multiple expansion as management executes post-IPO and
investors gain greater conviction in the future growth runway & pipeline opportunity.
Risks… Challenges/delays activating new OUS commercial channels, slower-than-expected utilization/annuity pull-through per
instrument ramp, pipeline delays and heightened competition.
Bottom Line: DNAY offers first & only automated, push-button workstation,
Biologics, 50% Vaccine
the BioXp system, which aims to democratize synthetic biology Development 21%
Spec/Ag 4%
Cell & Gene Therapy 15%
Genome Editing
10%
Major contributions to the synthetic biology from DNAY’s team
Problem = Existing approaches for writing synthetic DNA & Today DNAY serves ~$2.5-3B market, which is growing healthy double-
mRNA are to do it manually in-house or outsource (IP risk) – digits and is expected to essentially triple by 2024 (to ~$9B). This
both of which are slow & have significant performance market breaks down into three key areas:
limitations. This creates bottlenecks in the build phase within
the design-build-test process of creating new or modified DNA made at the bench (“makers”) = $1.4B
biological components, which has inhibited synthetic biology DNA outsourced (“buyers”) = ~$700M
from reaching its full potential
mRNA = ~$600M
Solution = DNAY’s synthetic biology offering provides a highly
automated, push-button system with a “set it and forget it” How does DNAY win? By converting two different areas: 1) in-house
workflow done at the benchtop users to its BioXP where speed, quality, scale, control & ease of use
matter ; 2) Outsource to its BioFoundry where speed & quality matters
Process
No Optimized Yes development
& scale-up
Bottom line: Design-phase provides “blueprint” which then moves to the build-phase where it ultimately becomes synthetic DNA or
mRNA – both of which can be easily assayed for desired function in the test-phase. Key differentiators = those that can enhance speed and
scale of design phase…
Source: company data, Jefferies estimates
DNAY’s offering, the BioXp system, is a commercially available push-button, walkaway, end-to-end automated workstation that allows
researchers to go from digital DNA sequence to synthetic DNA & mRNA in as few as 8 hours and less than 24 hours (ex. shipping), respectively.
Key benefits include: 1) consolidation of build phase; 2) flexibility across both DNA & mRNA applications; 3) fast, scalable results; 4)
ability to construct genes, mRNA and clones; 5) access wide range of size & complexity; 6) industry-leading quality & performance; 7)
enhanced productivity; 8) protection of customer proprietary vectors
DNAY unifies synthetic biology efforts into a single platform – scalable across multiple sites, standardized and robust
End-to-end automation
solution
20x improvement in
productivity
Benefits to Benefits to
Codex DNA Trusted & secure
customers organizations
Cloud-based access to
protocol updates & custom
services
Vendor Consolidation,
supply chain & quality
1) Acceleration of the design, build test cycle based on 2) Allows customer control of workflows, control of Intellectual property
decreased time to result (8 - 24 hrs) and scalability (up to 32 and offers end to end solutions for antibody engineering, vaccine discovery
wells) resulting in more than a 20 fold improvement to and development and both genome engineering and editing synthetic
productivity biology workflows
Initial Target Market Customer Segmentation Channel Strategy Customer Acquisition Strategy
Estimate the initial target market Primary: Global pharmaceutical, Direct sales in North America and Focus on customers needing end
for RUO workflow automation biotechnology & CROs focused on Central & Western Europe in to end solutions with a focus on
systems to be 15,000+ biologics drug discovery, vaccine addition to global network of integrating into synthetic biology
installments (reading & writing discovery and development, distributors covering remaining workflows based on value
go together) genome & pathway engineering parts of Europe, APAC and ROW proposition
regions
Source: company data, Jefferies estimates
Unprecedented speed: Significantly shorten development of lead candidates for biologics, vaccine and protein engineering workflows by
weeks or months so customers can bring products to market sooner.
Scale and throughout: Build up to 64 libraries a day.
Broad library menu to serve changing need: Degenerate libraries for discovery and targeted libraries for optimization
Error-corrected libraries: Non-degenerate libraries are synthesized using a proprietary, two-step error correction and purification process
to minimize sequence errors and maximize fidelity so customers can pick fewer colonies and sequence fewer clones for added time
savings
Flexibility with downstream analysis: Each degenerate position or specific sequence is built as an individual library so customers can have
maximum flexibility with downstream analysis
Value proposition: Dramatic acceleration of the “design>build>test” cycle based on decreased time-to-result (biologically active mRNA in
less than 24 hours) and scalability resulting in significant improvement to productivity for mRNA-based vaccine discovery and development
for infectious disease and precision medicine
Contains all Gibson Assembly reagents necessary to synthesize up to ten micrograms of biologically active synthetic mRNA using de novo
synthesized, error-corrected gene fragments (mRNA template) of up to 1.8 kb in length
Throughput: 8 or 16 samples/run
Revenue Drivers…
Unique market position: Product is uniquely positioned within the targeted customer segments and workflows for mRNA-based vaccines
for infectious disease, precision medicine and RNA therapeutics
Platform transition: mRNA vaccines represent a new approved platform for the development of novel vaccines for infectious disease and
precision medicine. Driven by the transition of older more mature protein-based vaccines technologies to an automated mRNA solutions
Workflow automation instrumentation: Launch of the 9600 series high throughput RUO platform with on-board enzymatic DNA synthesis
will drive increased overall utilization resulting from adoption of distributed manufacturing for biologics and mRNA workflows
Born out of the need to help accelerate the discovery & development of CV19 therapeutics and vaccines, as well as overcome supply chain
challenges from CV19-related shutdowns, DNAY launched its BioFoundry Services in 2Q20
DNAY’s BioFoundry Services enables customers to order and receive BioXp end-point ready products (e.g., clones, genes, cell-free DNA,
libraries and mRNA), while using BioXp instrument, kits & bench top reagents with services performed at their San Diego facility
Services today are focused on three key areas:
1) strategic pilot program = proof points for customers prior to purchasing
2) assist current BioXp users with overflow peak volume needs, or those working on highly complex products
3) solution for customers whose volume needs don’t currently support a BioXp system purchase
Bottom line: while we don’t see this as a major revenue growth driver going forward, Biofoundry Services does give DNAY a flexible option
to educate users about the BioXp platform
17X FASTER
35X FASTER 6X FASTER
Screening
Build mRNA Template Multiple Cycles Test & Scale-Up
Weeks
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Antibody, protein, pathway
engineering
Genome engineering
1,3. Kits starts with DNA synthesis; 2. Kit starts with previously replicon-cloned templates Represents product extension
Source: company data, Jefferies estimates
Codex DNA DNAY Buy $17 $23 4% $489 33.4x 23.0x 10.6x 6.0x 94%
Instrument ASP ($) $81,500 $81,500 $83,200 $83,500 $82,475 $83,000 $83,000 $83,000 $83,000 $83,000 $83,000 $83,000 $83,000 $83,000 $83,000 $65,000 $65,000 $65,000 $65,000 $65,000
Instrument revs ($mm) $1.06 $1.22 $1.25 $1.34 $4.87 $1.4 $1.5 $1.8 $1.9 $6.6 $1.9 $2.1 $2.1 $2.1 $8.1 $1.6 $1.6 $1.6 $1.6 $6.5
Kit annuity/box $2,109 $2,530 $3,036 $3,665 $11,340 $4,398 $5,058 $5,816 $6,689 $21,961 $7,358 $8,093 $8,903 $9,793 $34,147 $10,283 $10,797 $11,337 $11,904 $44,320
Kit revenues ($mm) $0.33 $0.43 $0.56 $0.74 $2.06 $0.96 $1.19 $1.48 $1.86 $5.48 $2.21 $2.63 $3.11 $3.67 $11.62 $4.11 $4.58 $5.10 $5.65 $19.44
BioXp 9600
Installed base, beginning 0 0 0 7 0 17 27 37 47 17 57 67 77 87 57
Additions 0 0 7 10 17 10 10 10 10 40 10 10 10 10 40
Installed base, ending 0 0 0 7 17 17 27 37 47 57 57 67 77 87 97 97
Average installed base 0 0 4 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92
Instrument ASP ($) $145,000 $145,000 $145,000 $145,000 $145,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000
Instrument revs ($mm) $0.0 $0.0 $1.0 $1.5 $2.5 $1.5 $1.5 $1.5 $1.5 $6.0 $1.5 $1.5 $1.5 $1.5 $6.0
Kit annuity/box $7,500 $9,500 $11,500 $13,500 $42,000 $16,000 $18,500 $21,000 $25,000 $80,500 $25,000 $25,000 $25,000 $25,000 $100,000
Kit revenues ($mm) $0.00 $0.00 $0.04 $0.16 $0.20 $0.35 $0.59 $0.88 $1.30 $3.13 $1.55 $1.80 $2.05 $2.30 $7.70
Instrument ASP ($) $60,000 $60,000 $60,000 $60,000 $60,000 $60,000 $60,000 $60,000 $60,000 $60,000
Instrument revs ($mm) $0.0 $0.0 $0.6 $0.9 $1.5 $1.8 $1.8 $1.8 $1.8 $7.2
Kit annuity/box $0 $0 $2,121 $2,545 $4,666 $2,545 $2,800 $3,079 $3,387 $11,811
Kit revenues ($mm) $0.00 $0.00 $0.01 $0.04 $0.06 $0.10 $0.20 $0.31 $0.44 $1.05
Instrument ASP ($) $210,000 $210,000 $210,000 $210,000 $210,000 $210,000 $210,000 $210,000 $210,000 $210,000
Instrument revs ($mm) $0.0 $0.0 $3.2 $5.3 $8.4 $5.3 $5.3 $5.3 $5.3 $21.0
Kit annuity/box $10,000 $12,500 $22,500 $12,500 $13,750 $15,125 $16,638 $58,013
Kit revenues ($mm) $0.08 $0.34 $0.42 $0.66 $1.07 $1.55 $2.12 $5.39
BioXp Systems revenue $0.5 $0.6 $0.8 $1.0 $2.9 $1.060 $1.223 $1.248 $1.336 $4.9 $1.4 $1.5 $2.8 $3.4 $9.1 $3.4 $3.6 $7.3 $9.7 $24.0 $10.2 $10.2 $10.2 $10.2 $40.7
growth 68% 33% 22% 128% 151% 87% 142% 139% 158% 190% 164% 198% 185% 39% 5% 69%
% of revenue
BioXp Kit revenue $0.1 $0.2 $0.3 $0.4 $1.0 $0.330 $0.431 $0.563 $0.737 $2.1 $1.0 $1.2 $1.5 $2.0 $5.7 $2.6 $3.2 $4.1 $5.4 $15.2 $6.4 $7.6 $9.0 $10.5 $33.6
growth 168% 121%
% of revenue
Average annual pull-thru (per box) $7,900 $8,435 $10,121 $12,146 $14,660 $11,340 $17,592 $20,231 $23,573 $27,885 $22,320 $31,789 $36,110 $40,387 $45,436 $38,431 $46,325 $47,484 $49,069 $51,019 $48,474
Biofoundry Services & Catalog Reagents $0.1 $0.3 $0.4 $0.5 $1.3 $0.325 $0.3 $0.5 $0.6 $1.7 $0.5 $0.5 $0.5 $0.5 $2.1 $1.0 $1.0 $1.0 $1.0 $4.0 $1.2 $1.2 $1.2 $1.2 $4.8
Collaboration / Royalties $0.2 $0.3 $0.4 $0.5 $1.4 $0.5 $0.8 $0.8 $1.8 $3.9 $0.9 $0.9 $0.9 $0.9 $3.4 $1.1 $1.1 $1.1 $1.1 $4.3 $1.5 $1.5 $1.5 $1.5 $5.8
Total Other revenue $0.3 $0.6 $0.8 $1.0 $2.7 $0.9 $1.1 $1.3 $2.4 $5.6 $1.4 $1.4 $1.4 $1.4 $5.5 $2.1 $2.1 $2.1 $2.1 $8.3 $2.7 $2.7 $2.7 $2.7 $10.6
Total revenue $0.9 $1.4 $1.9 $2.4 $6.550 $2.24 $2.75 $3.06 $4.49 $12.5 $3.7 $4.1 $5.7 $6.8 $20.3 $8.0 $8.9 $13.5 $17.2 $47.6 $19.2 $20.5 $21.8 $23.3 $84.9
growth 149% 104% 61% 87% 91% 67% 48% 87% 51% 62% 115% 119% 135% 154% 134% 139% 131% 62% 36% 78%
% of total 96.4% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 99.3% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Net sales $1.4 $1.6 $1.6 $1.9 $6.6 $2.3 $2.7 $3.1 $4.5 $12.6 $3.7 $4.1 $5.7 $6.8 $20.3 $47.6 $84.9
Cost of products sold $0.6 $0.7 $0.7 $1.0 $3.0 $1.0 $1.3 $1.3 $2.0 $5.7 $1.6 $1.7 $2.5 $2.9 $8.7 $20.4 $29.7
Gross profit $0.8 $1.0 $0.9 $0.9 $3.6 $1.3 $1.4 $1.7 $2.5 $6.9 $2.1 $2.3 $3.3 $3.8 $11.6 $27.1 $55.2
G&A expenses $1.1 $0.7 $1.0 $1.3 $4.1 $2.4 $4.3 $4.4 $4.5 $15.6 $4.0 $4.0 $4.3 $4.3 $16.5 $19.0 $22.9
Sales & Marketing $1.3 $1.6 $1.9 $2.2 $6.9 $2.3 $2.6 $2.6 $2.6 $10.1 $4.5 $4.8 $5.0 $5.3 $19.5 $23.3 $33.5
Research & Development $2.0 $2.0 $2.3 $2.7 $8.9 $2.9 $2.2 $2.3 $2.4 $9.7 $3.5 $3.5 $3.5 $4.0 $14.5 $15.2 $17.0
Operating income (EBIT) ($3.6) ($3.3) ($4.3) ($5.2) ($16.4) ($6.3) ($7.7) ($7.5) ($7.0) ($28.4) ($9.9) ($9.9) ($9.5) ($9.7) ($38.9) ($30.4) ($18.2)
Interest expense $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Interest income $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Other expense, net $0.3 $0.2 $0.1 $1.1 $1.6 $1.2 $2.8 $0.3 $0.3 $4.5 $0.3 $0.3 $0.3 $0.3 $1.2 $0.8 $0.4
Income before taxes ($3.9) ($3.5) ($4.4) ($6.2) ($18.0) ($7.4) ($10.4) ($7.8) ($7.3) ($33.0) ($10.2) ($10.2) ($9.8) ($10.0) ($40.1) ($31.2) ($18.6)
Income tax $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Net income ($3.9) ($3.5) ($4.4) ($6.2) ($18.0) ($7.4) ($10.4) ($7.8) ($7.3) ($33.0) ($10.2) ($10.2) ($9.8) ($10.0) ($40.1) ($31.2) ($18.6)
Basic shares outstanding 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.9 31.0 30.9 31.0 31.1 31.1 31.2 31.1 31.3 34.7
Diluted shares outstanding 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.9 30.9 31.0 30.9 31.1 34.5
Basic E.P.S. ($0.13) ($0.11) ($0.14) ($0.20) ($0.58) ($0.24) ($0.34) ($0.25) ($0.24) ($1.07) ($0.33) ($0.33) ($0.31) ($0.32) ($1.29) ($1.00) ($0.54)
Diluted E.P.S. ($0.13) ($0.11) ($0.14) ($0.20) ($0.58) ($0.24) ($0.34) ($0.25) ($0.24) ($1.07) ($0.33) ($0.33) ($0.32) ($0.32) ($1.30) ($1.01) ($0.54)
EBITDA (plus SBC) ($3.6) ($3.3) ($4.3) ($5.2) ($16.4) ($5.9) ($7.3) ($7.1) ($6.6) ($26.8) ($9.0) ($9.1) ($8.7) ($8.8) ($35.6) ($26.1) ($12.1)
Margin Analysis
Gross margin 58.6% 59.8% 56.6% 47.4% 55.1% 56.0% 51.5% 56.6% 55.6% 55.0% 57.0% 57.0% 57.0% 57.0% 57.0% 57.0% 65.0%
G&A expenses 83% 46% 61% 65% 63% 104% 156% 142% 100% 123% 107% 99% 74% 63% 81% 40.0% 27.0%
Sales & Marketing 94% 99% 114% 112% 105% 98% 95% 85% 58% 80% 120% 117% 87% 78% 96% 49.0% 39.5%
Research & Development 141% 121% 143% 137% 136% 124% 80% 73% 54% 77% 94% 86% 61% 59% 71% 32.0% 20.0%
EBIT margin (259% ) (206% ) (261% ) (267% ) (249% ) (269% ) (280% ) (244% ) (156% ) (225% ) (264% ) (245% ) (165% ) (143% ) (192% ) (64% ) (22% )
Income tax 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Net margin (280% ) (216% ) (270% ) (321% ) (274% ) (320% ) (380% ) (254% ) (163% ) (261% ) (272% ) (252% ) (170% ) (147% ) (198% ) (66% ) (22% )
Growth Analysis
Net sales 68% 70% 87% 132% 92% 61% 48% 87% 51% 61% 134% 78%
G&A expenses 111% 482% 339% 259% 277% 66% (7% ) (2% ) (6% ) 6% 15% 20%
Sales & Marketing 75% 63% 40% 20% 45% 98% 83% 92% 102% 94% 19% 44%
Research & Development 47% 12% (4% ) (10% ) 9% 22% 59% 56% 67% 49% 5% 12%
Operating income (EBIT) 74% 131% 75% 36% 74% 58% 29% 27% 38% 37% (22% ) (40% )
2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 2033E 2034E 2035E 2036E 2037E 2038E 2039E 2040E 2041E
6/30/21 6/30/22 6/30/23 6/30/24 6/30/25 6/30/26 6/30/27 6/30/28 6/30/29 6/30/30 6/30/31 6/30/32 6/30/33 6/30/34 6/30/35 6/30/36 6/30/37 6/30/38 6/30/39 6/30/40 6/30/41
Revenue $7 $13 $20 $48 $85 $115 $149 $191 $241 $301 $374 $460 $551 $645 $736 $824 $906 $979 $1,037 $1,089 $1,133 $1,167
growth 61% 134% 78% 35% 30% 28% 26% 25% 24% 23% 20% 17% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 5% 4% 3%
Cost of Products Sold $3 $6 $9 $20 $30 $34 $45 $57 $72 $90 $112 $138 $165 $194 $221 $247 $272 $294 $311 $327 $340 $350
Gross Profit $4 $7 $12 $27 $55 $80 $105 $134 $169 $211 $262 $322 $386 $452 $515 $577 $634 $685 $726 $763 $793 $817
Gross margin (%) 55% 55% 57% 57% 65% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70%
Opex $20 $35 $51 $58 $73 $86 $93 $103 $118 $136 $161 $198 $237 $276 $314 $351 $385 $415 $439 $460 $477 $490
Operating income ($16) ($28) ($39) ($30) ($18) ($6) $11 $31 $51 $75 $101 $124 $149 $176 $201 $226 $249 $270 $287 $303 $316 $327
Operating margin (%) -249% -225% -192% -64% -22% -5% 8% 16% 21% 25% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28%
Income Tax $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3 $8 $13 $19 $25 $31 $37 $44 $50 $56 $62 $68 $72 $76 $79 $82
EBIAT ($16) ($28) ($39) ($30) ($18) ($6) $8 $23 $38 $56 $76 $93 $112 $132 $151 $169 $187 $203 $216 $227 $237 $245
Net margin -249% -225% -192% -64% -22% -5% 6% 12% 16% 19% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21%
Depreciation & Amortization $1 $2 $3 $4 $6 $7 $4 $6 $7 $9 $11 $14 $17 $19 $22 $25 $27 $29 $31 $33 $34 $35
WC Investment ($1) ($1) ($2) ($5) ($7) ($6) ($7) ($8) ($10) ($12) ($14) ($16) ($21) ($26) ($31) ($36) ($41) ($46) ($51) ($56) ($61) ($66)
Capex ($0) ($1) ($5) ($3) ($6) ($3) ($4) ($6) ($7) ($11) ($13) ($16) ($19) ($23) ($26) ($29) ($32) ($34) ($36) ($38) ($40) ($41)
uFCF ($16) ($29) ($42) ($34) ($25) ($7) $2 $15 $28 $43 $60 $74 $88 $102 $115 $129 $141 $151 $159 $165 $170 $173
Terminal Value $2,468
Revenue multiple exit 2.1x
EV/EBITDA exit 6.8x
WACC Calculation
WACC 10.0%
Terminal Growth Rate 3.0%
Projections Projections
2021 2022 2023
Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23
ASSETS
Current Assets
Cash and equivalents $1.1 $104.7 $96.9 $89.2 $78.4 $67.4 $56.7 $45.8 $40.3 $33.8 $23.8 $11.0
Accounts receivable, net $1.8 $1.9 $2.1 $2.6 $2.9 $3.2 $3.7 $4.2 $4.7 $5.6 $7.1 $9.1
Inventory $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Other current assets $5.9 $5.9 $5.9 $5.9 $5.9 $5.9 $5.9 $5.9 $5.9 $5.9 $5.9 $5.9
Total current assets $8.7 $112.5 $104.8 $97.7 $87.1 $76.4 $66.2 $55.9 $50.8 $45.3 $36.8 $25.9
Plant, property, and equipment, net $0.4 $0.7 $0.9 $1.1 $2.3 $3.5 $4.7 $5.8 $6.4 $7.0 $7.6 $8.2
Intangible assets, net $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Goodwill, net $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Other non-current assets $3.2 $3.2 $3.2 $3.2 $3.2 $3.2 $3.2 $3.2 $3.2 $3.2 $3.2 $3.2
Total long-term assets $3.6 $3.9 $4.1 $4.3 $5.5 $6.7 $7.9 $9.0 $9.6 $10.2 $10.8 $11.4
Total assets $12.3 $116.3 $109.0 $102.0 $92.6 $83.2 $74.1 $64.9 $60.5 $55.5 $47.6 $37.4
Long-term debt $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Deferred revenue $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Other non-current liabilities $4.4 $4.4 $4.4 $4.4 $4.4 $4.4 $4.4 $4.4 $4.4 $4.4 $4.4 $4.4
Total long-term liabilities $4.4 $4.4 $4.4 $4.4 $4.4 $4.4 $4.4 $4.4 $4.4 $4.4 $4.4 $4.4
Total liabilities $8.8 $8.8 $8.8 $8.8 $8.8 $8.8 $8.8 $8.8 $8.8 $8.8 $8.8 $8.8
Preferred stock $38.8 $38.8 $38.8 $38.8 $38.8 $38.8 $38.8 $38.8 $38.8 $38.8 $38.8 $38.8
Common Stock $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2
Capital in excess of par value $0.0 $114.1 $114.1 $114.1 $114.1 $114.1 $114.1 $114.1 $114.1 $114.1 $114.1 $114.1
Retained earnings ($32.9) ($43.4) ($51.1) ($58.5) ($68.6) ($78.9) ($88.6) ($98.6) ($103.9) ($109.8) ($118.6) ($129.8)
Accumulated other gain $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Treasury stock, at cost $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Total shareholders' equity $6.1 $109.7 $101.9 $94.6 $84.5 $74.2 $64.4 $54.5 $49.1 $43.3 $34.4 $23.3
Total liabilities and shareholders' equity $14.9 $118.5 $110.7 $103.4 $93.3 $83.0 $73.2 $63.3 $57.9 $52.1 $43.2 $32.1
Net change in cash position ($15.7) ($12.4) $103.6 ($7.8) ($7.7) $75.8 ($10.9) ($10.9) ($10.8) ($10.8) ($43.4) ($5.6) ($6.5) ($10.0) ($12.8) ($34.9)
Foreign exchange $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Net change in cash post foreign exchange ($15.7) ($12.4) $103.6 ($7.8) ($7.7) $75.8 ($10.9) ($10.9) ($10.8) ($10.8) ($43.4) ($5.6) ($6.5) ($10.0) ($12.8) ($34.9)
Cash and equivalents beginning of period $29.1 $13.5 $1.1 $104.7 $96.9 $13.5 $89.2 $78.4 $67.4 $56.7 $89.2 $45.8 $40.3 $33.8 $23.8 $45.8
Change in cash position ($15.7) ($12.4) $103.6 ($7.8) ($7.7) $75.8 ($10.9) ($10.9) ($10.8) ($10.8) ($43.4) ($5.6) ($6.5) ($10.0) ($12.8) ($34.9)
Cash and equivalents end of period $13.5 $1.1 $104.7 $96.9 $89.2 $89.2 $78.4 $67.4 $56.7 $45.8 $45.8 $40.3 $33.8 $23.8 $11.0 $11.0
Company Description
Codex DNA
Codex DNA is a synthetic biology company focused on enabling researchers to rapidly, accurately and reproducibly build or “write” high-
quality synthetic DNA and mRNA that is ready to use in many downstream synthetic biology enabled markets including therapeutics,
vaccines, biologics, genome engineering and digital DNA storage. Its BioXp system offers an end-to-end automated workstation that
fits on the benchtop and is broadly accessible due to ease-of-use and hands-free automation.
Company Valuation/Risks
Codex DNA
Our $23 PT represents a 10-yr horizon in our DCF & implies an EV of 15x our '23E revenues. Risks: slower adoption / penetration of BioXp
systems at key biopharma accounts, heightened competition.
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Valuation Methodology
Jefferies' methodology for assigning ratings may include the following: market capitalization, maturity, growth/value, volatility and
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Rating and Price Target History for: Codex DNA Inc (DNAY) as of 07-12-2021
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
Q2 Q3 2019 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021 Q1 Q2
Notes: Each box in the Rating and Price Target History chart above represents actions over the past three years in which an analyst
initiated on a company, made a change to a rating or price target of a company or discontinued coverage of a company.
Legend:
I: Initiating Coverage
D: Dropped Coverage
B: Buy
H: Hold
UP: Underperform
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