for industrial feedlots and processing plants will make Figure 15. Factors Influencing or risk (high trialability).
or risk (high trialability). At first, the new service is an
shutting down an expensive option, and these costs are
likely to be passed on to taxpayers if the businesses
that operate them fail.
This means that the disruption of the cow will
be irreversible well before the new technologies
are capable of producing the perfect steak at a
competitive cost.
2.3.1 Key Stakeholders’ Role in
Adoption
There are four main agents that could accelerate or
slow down the modern food disruption – consumers,
businesses, investors, and policymakers. These groups
are interdependent – the actions and choices made
by any one group affect those made by all others.
Different stakeholders will be driven by different
combinations of factors. For individual consumers,
cost, taste, and convenience are the most important.
For businesses, cost, revenue, and risk mitigation are
key. Meanwhile, governments and states can help or
hinder the incumbent and disruptive industries through
regulation, tax, or subsidy, depending on how beneficial
they are to the economy, the environment, and society.
Lobby and interest groups will also play an important
role in influencing them.
Consumers: Embracing Change
Because modern foods are superior to animal-derived
products, we expect to see their adoption begin
as soon as they are available, and well in advance
of cost parity being reached. Indeed, this is borne
out by the enthusiastic early adoption of many
products that have recently entered the market,
such as Impossible burgers.
Food&Agriculture
alternative to their main means of transport (whether
Decision-makers
taxis, car ownership, or public transport), but, the more
they try it, the more they appreciate its advantages.
Before long, it becomes their main form of transport.
We believe modern foods will follow a similar pattern,
National Competitiveness Policymakers but resistance will crumble even faster because they will
be so easy and cheap to try87 – there is no long-term
Animal Welfare Price Volatility
commitment and consumers can use modern products
Environment Security of to meet some nutritional needs and continue to use
Health Supply
conventional products to meet others.
Cost
Nutrition Perception, therefore, is a variable, not a constant. Over
time, this change in perception will drive the ‘social
Convenience Opportunity/Risk
license’ feedback loop. The industrial livestock industry
Taste
Aroma imposes many costs on society (externalities) that are
Mouthfeel not borne directly by the industry.88 These include health
Variety
costs that come from eating meat (obesity, diabetes,
Businesses/ heart disease, and cancer), the impact of livestock on
Consumers Investors the climate, on antibiotic resistance and foodborne
Source: RethinkX diseases, and on animal welfare.89 These are generally
tolerated because governments prioritize the need for
According to the diffusion of innovation theory, whenever low-cost and secure food supplies. But, for the first time,
new products enter a market they are met with different the emergence of a genuine alternative – a new food
reactions depending on the individual consumer.86 All system that produces lower cost and superior food
technology innovations face an initial level of excitement and that imposes a fraction of the externalized costs on
from some and skepticism from others. But history has society – means that these externalities are unlikely to
taught us that this resistance is never as deep rooted or be tolerated by the public. The social license will move
intransigent as we may think. This has been the case for from animal-derived foods to modern foods. This will
every major technological disruption of the past century create the political space for policy and regulation both
and more, whether it be the car, the television, or the to support the modern food industry and, potentially, to
penalize animal-based food production.
internet – the speed of adoption of new technologies
always takes us by surprise.
More recently, ride-hailing has been embraced by
consumers and is now a mainstream service less than
10 years after launching. Part of its rapid rise is the fact
consumers can easily try it with minimal effort, cost,
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