COVID-19: The race to finishing line!

State Bank of India

5 July 2021
Summary …. 1/3

COVID UPDATE: GLOBAL & INDIA

 Global experience shows that countries with high per capita GDP have been associated with higher COVID-
19 deaths per million, while low per capita countries are associated with low COVID-19 deaths, revealing high
income countries suffered more during the pandemic
 Delta strain has been detected in the U.S., the U.K., China, Japan, Poland, Portugal, Russia, and
Switzerland. It is the dominant variant in the U.K. and now accounts for 95% of cases being sequenced. Even
reasonably vaccinated countries like the UK have been witnessing increase in new cases. For example,
• Israel has vaccinated nearly 60% of its population completely. Even amongst the children in the age group 12-18 years,
33% have received the first dose and 23.8% have got the 2 doses
• However, even then cases have again started increasing since last week of Jun’21 (daily new cases average of around
250) with 2125 active cases including 50 hospitalised
 In India we have 51 cases of Delta Plus variant in 12 states by end-Jun
 New cases in top 15 districts, which are mostly urban increased again in Jun’21. But the good thing is that
their fatality rate has been constant for 3 months
 However, the share of rural districts in new cases has refused to decline meaningfully since July 2020, when
it breached 45% and has vacillated since then. Vaccination seems to be the only answer
 Global data shows that on an average third wave peak cases are around 1.7 times the peak cases at the time
of second wave
 India has achieved its second wave peak on 7 May’21 and going by the current data, India can experience
cases around 10,000 somewhere around 2nd week of July. However, the cases can start rising by second
fortnight of August!

State Bank of India 2

Summary …. 2/3

VACCINE UPDATE
 Indian experience shows that states with high per capita GDP have been associated with higher COVID-19
deaths per million, while low per capita GDP are associated with low COVID-19 deaths. Bihar, Jharkhand,
UP, Assam, Odisha, Rajasthan all have low per capita income and low deaths per million. At the same time,
Maharashtra, Uttarakhand, Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Himachal Pradesh have high per capita income
and high deaths per million
 Pace of vaccination in India picked up recently after the Centre changed the vaccination strategy. The country
is now receiving more than 40 lakh vaccination doses per day as shown by 7D MA
 The cases are now hovering around 45,000 from the past 7 days. In the first wave as well, the cases declined
gradually, with cases above 45,000 for around 21 days before any meaningful decline in daily cases
 Certain States like Rajasthan, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Kerala and Uttarakhand have already given
vaccine double dose to larger percentage of population above 60 years. Total vaccine doses as % of
population above 60 years is more than 100% for these states, implying double dose to many
 Overall vaccination in rural areas remains low. Certain States like Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Andhra
Pradesh Uttarakhand and Rajasthan have vaccinated greater proportion of rural population when
compared to others

State Bank of India 3

Summary …. 3/3
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
 Various indicators show improvement in economic activity in Jun’21. SBI business activity index shows
significant improvement in activity since May-end with the latest reading for the week ended 28 Jun’21 of 91.8
 PV sales increased as visible in various companies’ data. Replacement demand and increase in inventories
apart from a pick-up in demand could be the possible reasons for such an increase
 COVID-19 has impacted lives and livelihood across the economies and business sectors. The trends of
deposits during first wave (March-December, 2020) of COVID-19 as revealed by ASCBs data from RBI for
711 districts across all States/UTs show deposit outflows from 112 districts at Rs 1.06 lakh crore
 However, between March 2021 and March 2020, the deposit outflow only declined to Rs 38,295 crore from
61 districts in the country indicating a revival in activity

 The beginning of the 2nd wave, however, has resulted in significant deposit outflows from banking system in
alternated fortnights, the pace of which has now again moderated
 One of the worrying features is the increase in household stress. Household debt (after taking into
account retail loans, crop loans and business loans from financial institutions, viz., commercial
banks, credit societies, NBFCs, HFCs etc.) has sharply increased to 37.3% of GDP in FY21 from 32.5%
of GDP in FY20
• The decline in bank deposits in FY21 and the concomitant increase in health expenditure may result in further increase in
household debt to GDP in FY22
 India’s household debt to GDP ratio is still lower than other countries, though we need to supplement wage
income as a percentage of GDP that has been declining. If we proxy employee expenses as wage income,
as % of corporate GVA for our sample of 3973 listed companies, it has come down to 30.6% in FY21 from
34.1% in FY20
State Bank of India 4
COVID-19: The Global Landscape

State Bank of India 5

High per capita income is associated with higher COVID-19 deaths per mn

 Country-wise data shows that countries with high per capita GDP have been associated with
higher COVID-19 deaths per million, while low per capita income countries are associated
with low COVID-19 deaths, revealing high income countries suffered more during the
pandemic
 The graph shows that major countries are concentrated in Quadrant IV (High Per Capita
Income & High Deaths) and Quadrant II (Low per Capita Income & Low Deaths)
I Per Capita GDP Vs Covid Deaths Per Million
IV
7000

6000
Peru

Deaths 5000
Per
Mn↑ 4000

3000 Hungary
Brazil
Colombia Slovakia
2000 Italy
Spain United Kingdom US
Argentina France
Sweden
Russia Germany
1000
India Iran10 China 20
0 30 40 50 60 70
Indonesia S.Korea Australia
Ghana 0 Afghanistan
Pakistan Nigeria
Per Capita GDP 2020(E) in 1000USD→
III
II
I Low Per Capita, High Deaths Per Million
II Low Per Capita, Low Deaths Per Million
III High Per Capita,Low Deaths Per Million Adapted from
IV High Per Capita,High Deaths Per Million Angus Deaton

State Bank of India 6

Variants of COVID-19 virus are still mutating: Even reasonably vaccinated countries
like the UK are showing a manifold jump in cases

 As per WHO, there are four virus variants of

concern across the globe, namely Alpha, Beta,
Gamma and Delta
 Another variant lambda is being observed which
was originally discovered in Peru and classified as
‘variant of interest’ by WHO on 14 Jun’21
• It has been identified in as many as 29 countries,
including North and South America, Europe and
Oceania
 Delta strain has been detected in the U.S., the
U.K., China, Japan, Poland, Portugal, Russia, and
New Cases added
Switzerland. It is the dominant variant in the U.K. Country Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21
and now accounts for 95% of cases being China 455 453 673
Japan 118623 153924 53117
sequenced
Poland 470425 80141 7629
 Amongst these countries, China, Portugal, Russia Portugal 14771 12600 30464
Russia 256521 262757 436082
and the UK have been witnessing increase in new
Switzerland 58850 34766 8264
cases United Kingdom 72264 70985 314067
 In India we have 51 cases of Delta Plus variant in United States 1885745 916731 397302

12 states by end-Jun

State Bank of India 7

Israel cases are rising again despite maximum population already vaccinated

 Israel has vaccinated nearly 60% of its population completely. Even amongst the
children in the age group 12-18 years, 33% have received the first dose and 23.8%
have got the 2 doses
 However, the cases have again started increasing since last week of Jun’21 (daily new
cases average of around 250) with 2125 active cases including 50 hospitalised
 Thus one can not become complacent even after taking vaccine!

Israel - cases rising again

4000
3500 91000
81000
3000
71000
2500 61000
2000 51000
1500 41000
31000
1000
21000
500 11000
0 1000

new_cases Daily Vaccine shots (RHS)

State Bank of India 8

COVID-19: India Update

State Bank of India 9

India: Vaccination momentum has increased

 India has started giving more than 40 lakh vaccination doses per day as shown by 7D MA
• As on 3 Jul’21, cumulative doses at 34.5 crore (first dose: 28.3 crore, second dose: 6.2 crore)
 The cases are now hovering around 45,000 from the past 7 days, which indicates that the
second wave is not yet over and is clearly exhibiting a fat tail
 In the first wave as well, the cases declined gradually, with cases around 45,000 for 21 days
before any meaningful decline in daily cases

India New Cases and Daily Vaccine shots (7D MA)

4,50,000 70,00,000

4,00,000
60,00,000
3,50,000
50,00,000
3,00,000

2,50,000 40,00,000

2,00,000 30,00,000
1,50,000
20,00,000
1,00,000
21 days
10,00,000
50,000

0 0
01-06-2020
15-06-2020
29-06-2020
13-07-2020
27-07-2020
10-08-2020
24-08-2020
07-09-2020
21-09-2020
05-10-2020
19-10-2020
02-11-2020
16-11-2020
30-11-2020
14-12-2020
28-12-2020
11-01-2021
25-01-2021
08-02-2021
22-02-2021
08-03-2021
22-03-2021
05-04-2021
19-04-2021
03-05-2021
17-05-2021
31-05-2021
14-06-2021
28-06-2021
Daily new cases Number of Beneficiaries Vaccinated (RHS)

State Bank of India 10

Delhi, Gujarat, HP, Kerala and Rajasthan have already given double dose
of vaccine to a large %age of population above 60 years
Total vaccine doses per 100 people
 Certain States like Rajasthan, Delhi, Himachal 18-44 45 to 60 Above 60
Pradesh, Kerala and Uttarakhand have already Andhra Pradesh 16.8 90.1 85.6
given vaccine double dose to larger percentage of Assam 21.3 57.4 54.7
Bihar 14.6 33.0 57.0
population above 60 years
Chhattisgarh 20.0 94.7 110.8
Delhi 41.8 103.4 131.5

 Total vaccine doses as % of population above 60 Gujarat 36.3 93.9 129.3

Haryana 31.7 70.9 117.6
years is more than 100% for these states, implying 46.9 107.2 135.9
Himachal Pradesh
double dose to many. Ideally it would be 200% Jammu & Kashmir 23.8 114.0 101.5
when the entire population receives 2 doses in a Jharkhand 19.4 44.9 66.8
Karnataka 28.2 75.9 114.1
particular age-group
Kerala 21.6 71.1 130.7
Madhya Pradesh 30.4 56.3 74.1

 However, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra 19.1 65.8 91.1
Odisha 20.2 61.2 82.8
Assam, Bihar and Jharkhand have inoculated less 15.2 52.1 60.7
Punjab
proportion of those above 45 years. These states Rajasthan 27.7 78.6 130.7
need to pick up pace Tamil Nadu 20.3 37.8 43.2
Uttar Pradesh 13.0 41.2 49.4
Uttarakhand 38.4 92.7 125.6
West Bengal 14.6 54.5 80.0
India 21.6 61.2 82.6
Source: SBI Research, Cowin, Census India

State Bank of India 11

However, low vaccination of rural population in many states remains
a concern
Major States Vaccination Per 100 Population
 Overall vaccination in rural areas remains low Rural Districts Urban Districts
Combined
Average Average
Single Double Single Double Single Double
States
Doses Doses Doses Doses Doses Doses
 Certain States like Gujarat, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh 25.8 6.4 28.3 6.9 24.3 6.0
Kerala, Uttarakhand, Andhra Pradesh and Arunachal Pradesh 28.7 5.2 42.5 4.7 34.0 5.6
Bihar 12.6 1.9 23.9 6.5 11.3 1.8
Rajasthan have vaccinated greater Delhi - - 30.4 9.0 30.4 9.0
Gujarat 26.1 7.9 15.7 4.3 29.2 8.2
proportion of rural population when compared
Haryana 24.5 4.3 42.4 9.6 25.9 5.0
to others Jharkhand 17.9 2.8 17.1 3.8 15.2 2.8
Karnataka 28.0 5.8 21.8 4.2 28.7 5.7
Kerala 36.5 11.7 32.3 9.8 30.8 9.4
Madhya Pradesh 17.4 2.4 43.9 7.3 22.3 3.0
 In case of urban population, Madhya Maharashtra 17.6 4.5 25.2 6.5 21.2 5.2
Pradesh, Haryana, Uttarakhand and Odisha Meghalaya 13.4 1.9 23.7 2.9 19.3 2.5
Mizoram 27.7 3.7 35.2 4.8 43.4 4.6
have performed well Nagaland 15.4 2.5 24.0 3.3 20.5 2.8
Odisha 19.2 3.7 34.5 14.1 21.7 4.7
Punjab 14.0 2.7 19.6 4.2 17.6 3.3
Rajasthan 26.3 5.3 25.7 5.3 26.4 5.1
Tamil Nadu 9.1 1.6 11.4 2.6 17.4 3.4
Uttar Pradesh 11.4 2.0 22.5 4.0 11.8 2.0
Uttarakhand 34.8 8.5 37.0 10.6 31.8 7.4
West Bengal 11.5 3.8 18.9 5.2 17.3 5.2
India 23.3 4.8 27.6 6.3 20.3 4.4
Source:SBI Research, Cowin, Covid19india.org, Census 2011

State Bank of India 12

Rural districts in Rajasthan, Gujarat and Kerala and even J&K have done
remarkably well

 Certain districts of Kerala (Pathanamthitta, Kasaragod), Rajasthan (Nagaur, Alwar, Bikaner, Barmer), Gujarat
(BanasKantha, Narmada) and Jammu & Kashmir (Samba and Udhampur) have done remarkably well in
vaccinating their rural population with everyone above 45 already received their single shot and more than
half of those above 60 years fully vaccinated
 Similarly urban districts of Gautam Buddha Nagar of UP, Faridabad and Panchkula of Haryana, Dehradun of
Uttarakhand, Ajmer of Rajasthan, Porbandar of Gujarat and Kolkata of West Bengal have given everyone
above 45 years atleast a single dose

Rural districts which have performed well in vaccination drive Urban districts which have performed well in vaccination drive
Total doses per 100 people (% CFR % in Total doses per 100 people (% CFR % in
State Districts of population) Second State Districts of population) Second
18-44 45-59 60 above Wave 18-44 45-59 60 above Wave
Kerala Pathanamthitta 29.4 101.3 191.6 0.5 Uttar Pradesh Gautam Buddha Nagar 99.0 182.1 197.8 1.0
Rajasthan Nagaur 28.6 130.9 186.6 1.1 Haryana Faridabad 48.9 126.5 188.3 0.6
Rajasthan Alwar 32.3 125.9 180.9 0.6 Uttarakhand Dehradun 44.0 132.4 183.4 3.1
Gujarat BanasKantha 17.7 145.7 178.7 1.4 Rajasthan Ajmer 41.5 110.1 178.3 0.9
Rajasthan Bikaner 41.7 135.0 177.0 1.8 Tamil Nadu Chennai 56.9 130.7 178.0 1.4
Kerala Kasaragod 18.9 119.6 176.8 0.2 Puducherry Mahe 67.5 123.0 172.7 1.0
Gujarat Narmada 31.5 132.0 171.7 0.4 Haryana Panchkula 53.5 123.9 172.6 1.1
Jammu & Kashmir Samba 28.0 138.6 170.8 1.9 Gujarat Porbandar 41.3 137.8 172.5 0.5
Rajasthan Barmer 33.3 111.8 170.0 1.3 West Bengal Kolkata 59.3 140.2 170.9 1.0
Jammu & Kashmir Udhampur 39.4 136.7 169.5 1.1 Jammu & Kashmir Jammu 33.6 122.0 169.3 2.8

State Bank of India 13

Higher CFR and low vaccination in rural areas of HP, Bihar, Haryana, Maharashtra,
Punjab

 CFR during the second wave is Districts with Cumulative Fatality Rate(%) in Second Wave and Vaccination
Rural Urban
higher than the national average in
Average Avg % of single Avg % of single
rural districts of Bihar, HP, Punjab, States Count of
of CFR 2 doses injected per
Count of Average
doses injected per
Districts Districts of CFR 2 %
Haryana, Maharashtra and at the % 100 people 100 people

same time these states have Andhra Pradesh 11 0.6 25.8 2 0.7 28.3
Arunachal Pradesh 14 0.5 28.7 2 0.7 42.5
vaccinated lower percentage of their
Bihar 37 1.9 12.6 1 2.0 23.9
rural population Chhattisgarh 16 1.1 28.1 - - -
Delhi - - - 4 1.8 37.0
Gujarat 18 1.1 26.1 15 1.2 15.7
 Bihar, Jharkhand, Punjab and Haryana 14 1.8 24.5 6 1.4 42.4
Himachal Pradesh 11 1.7 57.0 - - -
Uttarakhand have higher CFR in Jharkhand 19 1.3 17.9 4 2.3 17.1
urban areas. These states except for Karnataka 23 1.2 28.0 5 1.2 21.8
Uttarakhand have less proportion of Kerala 6 0.4 36.5 8 0.5 32.3
Madhya Pradesh 40 1.2 17.4 4 0.8 43.9
their urban population vaccinated Maharashtra 29 2.1 17.6 5 1.5 25.2
Meghalaya 5 0.9 13.4 1 2.8 23.7
Mizoram 3 0.5 27.7 6 0.4 35.2
Nagaland 9 2.7 15.4 1 1.7 24.0
Odisha 27 0.4 19.2 2 0.5 34.5
Punjab 12 3.2 14.0 3 2.1 19.6
Rajasthan 25 0.9 26.3 4 1.0 25.7
Tamil Nadu 18 1.2 9.1 19 1.3 11.4
Uttar Pradesh 54 1.5 11.4 8 1.4 22.5
Uttarakhand 11 1.5 34.8 1 3.1 37.0
West Bengal 18 0.7 11.5 4 0.9 18.9
Total 439 1.3 20.7 114 1.2 25.5
Source:SBI Research, Cowin, Covid19india.org, Census 2011,*Delhi CFR is calculated from state no

State Bank of India 14

Third wave peak on an average 1.7 times the second wave peak!

 Overall, India has fully vaccinated 4.6% of its population, apart from 20.8% having received
one dose. This is still lower than other countries including the US, the UK, Israel, Spain,
France among others
 Furthermore, global data shows that on an average third wave peak cases are around 1.7
times the peak cases at the time of second wave
 India has achieved its second wave peak on 7 May’21 and going by the current data, India
can experience cases around 10,000 somewhere around 2nd week of July
 However, based on historical trends the cases can start rising by second fortnight of Aug’21
with peak cases at least a month later Global Vaccination Per 100 population
People fully
3rd Peak as x times 2nd Peak Country Total Doses First Doses vaccinated
4.5 (2 doses)
3.9 3.9
4.0 Bra zi l 48.4 35.7 12.7
3.5 Chi na 87.8 - -
3.0 Fra nce 80.6 50.3 31.2

2.5 Germa ny 89.4 54.7 37.0

2.0
2.0
1.9 1.8 Indi a 25.4 20.8 4.6
1.5 Is ra el 124.6 64.9 59.8
1.5
1.0 Ita l y 86.2 56.7 31.6
0.9
1.0 0.7 0.7
Rus s i a 28.0 16.0 12.0
0.5 0.3
Spa i n 89.9 54.8 38.5
0.0
Uni ted Ki ngdom 114.8 66.1 48.7
Uni ted Sta tes 99.1 54.8 47.1
Source: Ourworl d i n da ta , SBI Res ea rch

State Bank of India 15

Indian states too show that trend!

 High per capita income with higher number of deaths and lower per capita income and lower
number of COVID-19 deaths are observed in case of Indian States
 Bihar, Jharkhand, UP, Assam, Odisha, Rajasthan all lie in 2nd quadrant, showing low per
capita income and low deaths per million
 At the same time, Maharashtra, Uttarakhand, Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Himachal
Pradesh lie in 4th quadrant, associated with high per capita income and high deaths per
million
 Only a few states, including Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Punjab
lie outside these 2 quadrants
Per Capita Income Vs Cumulative Deaths Per Mn in
Second Wave
700
I IV
600
MH
500
UK
Deaths
Per 400
Mn↑ HP KA
CG
300
PB TN KL
0 50000 100000 200
150000 200000 250000HR 300000
JK
JH RJ
AS 100 AP GJ
BH UP WB
TL
MP OR 0
I Low Per Capita, High Deaths Per Million
-100
II Low Per Capita, Low Deaths Per Million
III High Per Capita,Low Deaths Per Million II -200
Per Capita III Adapted from
IV High Per Capita,High Deaths Per Million Income→
Angus Deaton

State Bank of India 16

Share of top 15 districts in new cases increased again; Rural share in new cases
still high a cause of concern!

 New cases in top 15 districts, which are mostly urban, increased again in Jun’21

 Fatality rate in top 15 districts has been constant for 3 months

 The share of rural districts in new cases has declined only modestly in Jun’21. This seems to be a cause of
concern since rural areas already have shortage of health infrastructure

Share of Top 15 districts in New cases and CFR Share of Rural districts in New cases
60 56.2 55.1 55.0 2.5
53.7 53.6
2.0 49.6
50 48.7
2.0 45.5
38.7 43.4
40 36.4 36.1 1.7 37.4 39.0 38.6 39.9 39.1
1.5 36.8
29.5 30.0 34.6
1.3
30 23.9
1.0 1.1 1.0 26.1
23.1 24.0
20

10 0.5

0 0.0
Sep-20

Jan-21

Feb-21
Oct-20

Mar-21

May-21
Dec-20

Apr-21

Jun-21
Nov-20

Nov-20

Jan-21
Jul-20
Apr-20

May-20

Jun-20

Apr-21

Jun-21
May-21*
Aug-20

Sep-20

Dec-20

Feb-21

Mar-21
Oct-20
Top 15 Districts % Share to New cases CFR %(RHS)

* 23 May’21

State Bank of India 17

Increased hospital bed occupancy is always associated with increase in cases:
A case of Delhi

7Days MA of Daily cases and hospital beds occupied

30000 25000

25000 20000
20000
15000
15000
10000
10000

5000 5000

0 0

Daily New cases Beds Occupied (RHS)

State Bank of India 18

Economic Activity

State Bank of India 19

SBI Business Activity Index increasing since May-end

 Various indicators show improvement in economic Leading Indicators MoM%

activity in Jun’21 Indicators Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21
Google Mobility Index
 SBI business activity index shows significant Retail and Recreation -22 -51 -54 -43
improvement in activity since May-end with the Grocery and Pharmacy 20 -3 -15 -6
latest reading for the week ended 28 Jun’21 of 91.8 Parks -15 -38 -31 -21
Transit stations -7 -37 -45 -24
 Robust recovery is visible in weekly vegetables’ Workplaces -16 -43 -42 -16
arrival, RTO Rev collection and Apple mobility Residential 9 22 22 11
index. However, there is slight dip in Labour Apple Mobility Index 128 67 76 137
AQI (7 City Average) -13.0 -18.6 -28.2 -8.4
participation rate
No of Transactions at RTO 11.1 -33.3 -66.4 142.3
Revenue Collections at RTO 26.3 -32.2 -61.6 113.2
No of GST E way Bills Generated 11.6 -17.5 -35.0 24.2
Electricity Demand 18.2 -2.7 -7.8 4.5
SBI Business Activity Index Revenue Earning Freight Traffic of
21.7 -13.3 939.1 -3.6
110.0 Major Commoditie(Rs Cr)
104.6
100.0 Tractor Sale Domestic* 12.5 -25.5 -5.7 75.6
90.0 91.8 Domestic Passenger Vehicle Sale* 3.4 -10.1 -66.3 142.0
80.0 78.3
Domestic Two Wheelers Sale* 4.9 -33.5 -64.6 204.6
70.0 Fertilizer Retail -9.7 -49.6 57.6 94.9
60.0
61.4
Weekly Food arrival in Tonnes-Average
50.0 Cereals 88.4 490.8 -71.6 -70.6
40.0 42.0 Pulses -53.4 -27.9 -34.7 30.5
08-Jun-20

15-Nov-20

10-May-21
05-Apr-20
21-Apr-20
07-May-20
23-May-20

24-Jun-20

08-Apr-21
24-Apr-21

26-May-21
11-Jun-21
27-Jun-21
17-Feb-20
04-Mar-20
20-Mar-20

11-Aug-20
27-Aug-20
12-Sep-20
28-Sep-20

01-Dec-20
17-Dec-20
02-Jan-21
18-Jan-21

07-Mar-21
23-Mar-21
14-Oct-20
30-Oct-20

03-Feb-21
19-Feb-21
10-Jul-20
26-Jul-20

Fruits 23.9 25.9 9.9 -23.0

Vegetables 2.7 -27.7 -10.8 -6.7
* Latest numbers are our estimates based on companies' data

State Bank of India 20

Passenger vehicle sales show steep increase

 PV sales at the dealership level has increased as visible in various companies data

 Replacement demand, increase in inventories, apart from a pick up in demand could be the
possible reasons for such an increase. Difficult to separate out which one is more dominant
now

Passenger Vehicle Sales

Manufacturer Jun-21 May-21 Jun-20 MoM% YOY%
Maruti Suzuki 124280 32903 51274 277.7 142.4
Hyundai 40496 25001 21320 62.0 89.9
Tata Motors 24111 15181 11419 58.8 111.1
Kia Motors India 15015 11050 7275 35.9 106.4
Mahindra 16913 8004 7959 111.3 112.5
Renault 6100 2620 4643 132.8 31.4
Honda 4767 2032 1398 134.6 241.0
MG Motor(Retail) 3558 1016 2012 250.2 76.8
Volkswagen India 1633 1425 1510 14.6 8.1
Nissan India 3503 1235 576 183.6 508.2
Ford 4936 766 2639 544.4 87.0
Skoda Auto India 734 716 790 2.5 -7.1
Toyota 8798 707 3866 1144.4 127.6
Fiat 789 475 256 66.1 208.2
Citroen 41 40 2.5
All 255674 103171 116937 147.8 118.6

State Bank of India 21

Trend Analysis of ASCB Deposits data during COVID-19

 COVID-19 has impacted lives and livelihood # of

Dec-20 over Mar-20 Rs in crores
across the economies and business sectors. Districts
During the initial lockdown period in 2020,
Deposits Inflows 599 11,19,776
deposits of the ASCBs increased due to less
avenues to spend. However, subsequently, it Deposits Outflows 112 -1,06,798
declined marginally in the festive months
Total 711 10,12,978
 The trends of deposits during the first wave
(March-December, 2020) of COVID-19 as
revealed by ASCBs data from RBI for 711 Change in Deposit and Credit of ASCB from April to Jun
(first 6 fortnights)
districts across all States/Uts show deposit
Rs Cr Deposits Advances
outflows from 112 districts at Rs 1.06 lakh crore FY18 -205746 -205777
 However, between March 2021 and March FY19 -73067 -11006
2020, the deposit outflow only declined to Rs FY20 -81305 -122954
FY21 299635 -125183
38,295 crore from 61 districts in the country FY22 185026 -107643
suggesting revival in economic activity 1st 101373 -60330
 The beginning of the 2nd wave, however, has 2nd -80579 -28783
3rd 82560 9591
resulted in significant deposit outflows from 4th -49704 -38766
banking system in alternate fortnights, the pace 5th 145990 12203
of which has now moderated 6th -14613 -1559

State Bank of India 22

Household Debt as a %age of GDP has jumped in FY21

 The COVID-19 has resulted in spike in Household Debt as a % of GDP

household debt to GDP. It rose sharply to 37.3% 38.0% 37.3%
in 2020-21 from 32.5% in 2019-20 (as per SBI
estimates)
• BIS estimates are at 37.7% as on Dec’20

 To calculate HH Debt, we have taken into 33.0% 32.5%

31.7%
account, retail loans, crop loans and business
loans from financial institutions, viz., commercial 30.1%
banks, credit societies, NBFCs, HFCs etc

28.0%
 This indicates that the household financial FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
savings rate may have gone down in FY21 with
the rise in consumption and health hazards
• The decline in bank deposits in FY21 and the
concomitant increase in health expenditure may
result in further increase in household debt to GDP
in FY22
 India household debt to GDP ratio is still lower
than other countries, though we need to
supplement wage income. If we proxy
employee expenses as wage income, as % of
corporate GVA for our sample of 3973 listed
companies, it has come down to 30.6% in FY21
from 34.1% in FY20. Meanwhile, PAT as % of
GVA has significantly grown from 13.4% in FY20
to 23.7% in FY21

State Bank of India 23

Disclaimer: Contact Details:
This Report is not a priced publication of the Bank. The Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh
opinion expressed is of Research Team and not necessarily Group Chief Economic Adviser
reflect those of the Bank or its subsidiaries. The contents State Bank of India, Corporate Centre
can be reproduced with proper acknowledgement. The write- Nariman Point, Mumbai - 400021
up on Economic & Financial Developments is based on Email: soumya.ghosh@sbi.co.in
information & data procured from various sources and no gcea.erd@sbi.co.in
responsibility is accepted for the accuracy of facts and Phone:022-22742440
figures. The Bank or the Research Team assumes no liability :@kantisoumya
if any person or entity relies on views, opinion or facts &
figures finding in this Report.

State Bank of India 24