The end of classical decision modeling?

Paul (2002) conjectured a transformation in the way decision modeling is undertaken, driven
by the desire to make quick decisions and the ability of theWeb to facilitate such quick decisions.
Realworld problems formulated as a logical model. Logical models can be activity cycle diagrams,
flow charts, block diagrams, and so forth. The next step is to convert the logical model into a
computer model; sometimes it is a computer program, sometimes it is a data-driven generic
simulation system. This computer model is verified and tested to see if it is doing what the analyst
wants it to do. The model is used as an operational model to produce some results, or some
conclusions, or for implementation after the operational model has been validated against the real
world.
In realworld situation, the definition of the problem is influenced by the owners of the
problem, especially for complex strategic decision making. Because the problem is complex,
formulation is a very difficult task. In fact, understanding what the problem is may be the object of
the whole exercise. The analyst should be prepared to constantly undertake problem reformulation
to obtain a common understanding of the problem as part of the modeling process.
Wiedemann (2001) purposed a change to the approach taken in simulation, away from
technology-driven and toward a customer-oriented philosophy. He presented a Simulation
Application Service Providing. He proposed such a system that has repositories of plug-and-play
models, automatic data exchange, result analysis with database functions, and fast and permanent
access to simulation control functions. Gan, Liu, Turner, and Cai (2001) discussed the use of a Web
front-end that, by enabling access at any time and from any location, would enhance the widespread
use of a parallel supply chain simulator. Their Web front-end provides the capability of model
uploading, simulation runs initiation, simulation activities visualization, and standard statistics
collection.
Web-simulation is not very different from non-Web simulation However, in this final section
we take up the futures theme of the previous section and present a range of newWeb-simulation
scenarios, whichwould change simulation fundamentally.We are not, unfortunately, able to forecast
with certainty which scenarios will prevail, because there is insufficient evidence available. The
ability to access multimedia on the Web clearly introduces greater potential for the use of videos of
problem scenarios, and for interaction with stakeholders situated at remote locations. Some have
predicted that the software industry will be divided into component factories where powerful and
general components will be built and tested, and into component assembly shops where these
components will be assembled into flexible business solutions. So, the Web and its users are
different from “oneperson-on-one-machine” computing. However, most Web-based simulation is
not only an attempt to transport the latter onto the Web but with less proficiency than at present
available.