AP Statistics Probability Student Handout: 2017-2018 EDITION

AP Statistics
Probability
Student Handout
2017-2018 EDITION
Copyright © 2017 National Math + Science Initiative, Dallas, Texas. All rights reserved. Visit us online at www.nms.org
2 Copyright © 2017 National Math + Science Initiative, Dallas, Texas. All rights reserved. Visit us online at www.nms.org

Probability
Free response and multiple choice questions on this topic address probability models, general
probability rules, independence, conditional probability, and simulations. Show your work
when completing a probability question.
Free Response Question 1

In a small town, there are three doctors that practice medicine in the town’s clinic. The table
below shows the patient registration of the 400 residents of the small town.
Patient – Doctor Registration

Dr. Smith Dr. Nguyen Dr. Patel Total
Female 50 89 111 250
Male 21 90 39 150
Total 71 179 150 400
a) What is the probability of randomly selecting a resident from this town that is a patient of
Dr. Patel?
b) Given that a randomly selected resident is a female, what is the probability she is a patient of
Dr. Patel’s?
c) Among the residents of the small town, are the events “is a female” and “is a patient of Dr.
Patel” independent? Justify your answer based on probabilities calculated from the table
above.
Copyright © 2017 National Math + Science Initiative, Dallas, Texas. All rights reserved. Visit us online at www.nms.org 1
Free Response Question 2
An outdoor education class consists of 55 people. Thirty-three of the class members are male and
22 are female. The instructor plans to take the class on an extended backpacking trip into a
remote forest. The instructor is unaware that 10 of the male and 12 of the female students have
never camped overnight.
a) What is the probability that a randomly selected student has never camped overnight?
b) Are the events “selecting a male” and “selecting a student who has never camped overnight”
independent? Justify your answer.
c) The instructor randomly selected one group of five students from the class to camp together
during the extended backpacking trip and learned that three of the five had never camped
overnight. The instructor is surprised by this.
Describe how you would estimate, using a simulation, the probability that three or more of the
five randomly selected students had never camped overnight.
Multiple Choice Questions

1. A fair die will be three rolled times. If the first two rolls result in two 5s, what is the
probability of not rolling a 5 on the third roll?
(A) 0
(B)
(C)
(D)
(E) 1
2. An experiment has three mutually exclusive outcomes, A, B, and C.
If 0.27, 0.59, and 0.14, which of the following must be true?
I. ∩ 0.0378
II. ∩ 0
III. ∪
(A) I only
(B) I and II only
(C) I and III only
(D) II and III only
(E) I, II, and II
Multiple Choice Questions 3 and 4 refer to the following probability distribution.
The number of sweaters a vendor sells daily has the following probability distribution.
Number sold 0 1 2 3 4 5
0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.08 0.02
3. If each sweater sells for $25, what is the expected daily total dollar amount taken in by the
vendor for the sale of the sweaters?
(A) $5.00
(B) $7.60
(C) $35.50
(D) $38.00
(E) $75.00
4. Suppose the vendor constructs a weekly sales report for the 7-day dollar amount taken in by
the vendor, Y. What is the standard deviation for Y, assuming 1.33, each sweater sells
for $25, and the sales on each day are independent.
(A) $15.26
(B) $17.60
(C) $76.29
(D) $87.98
(E) $232.80
Multiple Choice Questions 5 and 6 refer to the following two-way table.
The class of 1968 and 1998 held a joint reunion in 2008 at the local high school. Attendees were
asked to fill out a survey to determine what they did immediately after graduation. The results
are summarized in the table below.
College Job Military Other Total
1968 56 73 85 7 221
1998 173 62 37 20 292
Total 229 135 122 27 513
5. What is the probability that a randomly selected attendee graduated in 1998 and went into the
Military immediately after graduation?
(A) 0.072
(B) 0.127
(C) 0.303
(D) 0.596
(E) 0.669
6. What is the probability that a randomly selected 1968 graduate went to college immediately
after graduation?
(A) 0.245
(B) 0.253
(C) 0.560
(D) 0.592
(E) 0.755
7. Which of the following statements is true for two events, each with probability greater than 0?
(A) If the events are mutually exclusive, they must be independent.

(B) If the events are independent, they must be mutually exclusive.
(C) If the events are not mutually exclusive, they must be independent.
(D) If the events are not independent, they must be mutually exclusive.
(E) If the events are mutually exclusive, they cannot be independent.
8. Students, teachers, and parents in a drama club have been asked to decide on the items they
will sell for the upcoming fall fundraiser. They must choose from selling popcorn, cookies, or
beef jerky. Their votes are given in the table below.
Popcorn Cookies Beef Jerky Total

Students 35 35 80 150
Teachers 10 0 10 20
Parents 45 55 0 100
Total 90 90 90 270
Which of the following statement(s) is true?
I. The events being a teacher and choosing cookies are independent.

II. The events Beef Jerky and Parents are mutually exclusive.
III. The probability of student or popcorn is approximately 0.7593
(A) I only
(B) II only
(C) III only
(D) I and II only
(E) II and III only
9. A professional football player is suspected of using performance enhancing drugs. To

determine if the player has been using these drugs, two independent drug tests are
administered on the player. The first test has a probability of 0.95 of returning a positive test
result if the drugs are present. The second test has a probability of 0.86 of returning a positive
test result if the drugs are present. If, in fact, the player does use performance enhancing
drugs, what is the probability of neither test returning a positive response?
(A) 0.817
(B) 0.133
(C) 0.090
(D) 0.043
(E) 0.007
10. A high school student is randomly chosen from the United States. The probability that the
student chosen is a female student is 0.51. The probability that the student chosen rides the
school bus to and from school is 0.33. The probability that you chose a female student that
rides the bus to school is 0.19. What is the probability that the student chosen is either a
female or rides the bus to and from school?
(A) 0.84
(B) 0.65
(C) 0.37
(D) 0.1683
(E) 0.1056
11. Recent studies show that approximately 65% of people are lactose intolerant (have trouble
digesting milk products). If a group of 10 people are randomly selected, what is the
probability that exactly 8 of those selected are lactose intolerant?
(A) 0.0134
(B) 0.1757
(C) 0.3500
(D) 0.6500
(E) 0.9140
12. Recent studies show that approximately 65% of people are lactose intolerant. What is the
probability a researcher randomly selecting from the population does not select someone who
is lactose intolerant until the fourth person?
(A) 0.0279
(B) 0.0961
(C) 0.1115
(D) 0.3845
(E) 0.6500
13. The distribution of seat heights of standard dining chairs is approximately normal with a
mean of 18.5 inches and a standard deviation of 0.5 inches. A customer of an online sales
outlet for furniture is concerned that no dimensions are given for the dining chairs. A chair
with a seat height greater than 19.2 inches would not allow her feet to touch the floor. What
is the probability of randomly selecting a standard dining chair with a seat height greater than
19.2 inches?
(A) 0.0500
(B) 0.0808
(C) 0.2420
(D) 0.7580
(E) 0.9192
Additional Free Response Question 3
A test consisting of 25 multiple choice questions with 5 answer choices for each question is
administered. For each question, there is only one correct answer.
(a) Let X be the number of correct answers if a student guesses randomly from the five
choices for each of the 25 questions. What is the probability distribution of X?
This test, like many multiple choice tests, is scored using a penalty for guessing. The test score
is determined by awarding one point for each question answered correctly, deducting 0.25 points
for each question answered incorrectly, and ignoring any question that is omitted. That is, the
test score is calculated using the following formula
1 0.25 0
For example, the score for a student who answered 17 questions correctly, answered 3 questions
incorrectly, and omitted 5 questions is
1 17 0.25 3 0 5 16.25
(b) Suppose a student knows the correct answers for 18 questions, answers those 18
questions correctly, and chooses randomly from the 5 choices for each of the other 7
questions. Show that the expected value of the student’s score is 18 when using the
scoring formula above.
(c) A score of at least 20 is needed to pass the test. Suppose a student knows the correct
answers for 18 questions, answers those 18 questions correctly, and chooses randomly
from the 5 choices for each of the other 7 questions. What is the probability that the
student will pass the test?
A simple random sample of adults living in a suburb of a large city was selected. The age and
annual income of each adult in the sample were recorded. The resulting data are summarized in
the table below.
Annual Income
Age Category $25,000-$35,000 $35,001-$50,000 Over $50,000 Total
21-30 8 15 27 50
31-45 22 32 35 89
46-60 12 14 27 53
Over 60 5 3 7 15
Total 47 64 96 207
(a) What is the probability that a person chosen at random from those in this sample will be
in the 31-45 age category?
(b) What is the probability that a person chosen at random from those in this sample whose
incomes are over $50,000 will be in the 31-45 age category? Show your work.
(c) Based on your answers to parts (a) and (b), is annual income independent of age category
for those in this sample? Explain.
Every Monday a local radio station gives coupons away to 50 people who correctly answer a
question about a news fact from the previous day’s newspaper. The coupons given away are
numbered from 1 to 50, with the first person receiving coupon 1, the second person receiving
coupon 2, and so on, until all 50 coupons are given away. On the following Saturday, the radio
station randomly draws numbers from 1 to 50 and awards cash prizes to the holders of the
coupons with these numbers. Numbers continue to be drawn without replacement until the total
amount awarded equals or exceeds $300. If selected, coupons 1 through 5 each have a cash
value of $200, coupons 6 through 20 have a cash value of $100, and coupons 21 through 50 each
have a cash value of $50.
(a) Explain how you would conduct a simulation using the random number table provided
below to estimate the distribution of the number of prize winners each week.
(b) Perform your simulation 3 times. (That is, run 3 trials of your simulation.) Start at the
leftmost digit in the first row of the table and move across. Make your procedure clear so
that someone can follow what you did. You must do this by marking directly on or above
the table. Report the number of winners in each of your 3 trials.
72749 13347 65305 26128 49067 02904 49953 74674 94617 13317
81638 36566 42709 33717 59943 12027 46547 61303 6699 76423
38449 46438 91579 01907 72146 05764 22400 94490 49833 09258
Additional Notes about Probability
Probability Formulas included on the Formula Chart
(II) Probability
∪ ∩
∩
|
If X has a binomial Distribution with parameters n and p, then:

1
Additional rules (not included in the AP test booklet):

 If two events are disjoint (mutually exclusive), then ∩ 0
Example: Let A represent drawing a black card and B represent drawing a heart.
Since hearts are red, ∩ ∩ 0
 Two events are independent if and only if | OR ∩
Other useful tools:

Tree diagrams provide easy‐to‐interpret models for situations in which a scenario may be
decomposed into multiple stages, one following another. It is important to understand that the
probability on each branch in a tree diagram is a conditional probability.
Two‐way (contingency) tables are particularly useful in interpreting conditional probabilities

and examining independence. In such tables the entry in each cell can be divided by the grand
total (total sample size) to get the joint probability for the row and column events that define the
cell. The total combined probabilities for all cells must add to 1, and the sum for each row
(column) can be used to get the “marginal” probability for that row (column). If you have a
single row or column add to 1 you may need to rethink the formulation of the table!
Venn Diagrams are sometimes helpful, especially when given the probability of separate events.
Rules for Random Variables:
For any random variable X, where a and b are constants:
E ( aX  b)  a  E ( X )  b
Var(aX  b)  a 2Var(X)
When combining random variables X and Y, the means follow the same operation as the
combination, in other words, if you are adding the means add, if you are subtracting the means
subtract:
E ( X  Y )  E ( X )  E (Y ) E ( X  Y )  E ( X )  E (Y )
For independent random variables X and Y, the variances always add. Be careful if you are given
standard deviation!:
Var(X  Y )  Var(X)  Var(Y )
Calculator Use
To save time on the exam, you will want to use your calculator for probability computations.
Specifically, you will want to know how to:
• Enter a probability distribution in lists (values in one list and probabilities in a second
list) and use 1‐Var Stats to compute the mean (expected value) and standard deviation.
• Use binomPdf to compute the probability of a specific binomial outcome and binomCdf
to compute the probability of an interval of binomial outcomes.
• Use normCdf to compute the probability of a normal distribution and invNorm to find an
x value in a normal distributioin.
Note: When you use your calculator for computations on Free Response questions, it will be
very important to provide proper communication and support for your work.
Random Digit Table
Line
101 19223 95034 05756 28713 96409 12531 42544 82853
102 73676 47150 99400 01927 27754 42648 82425 36290
103 45467 71709 77558 00095 32863 29485 82226 90056
104 52711 38889 93074 60227 40011 85848 48767 52573
105 95592 94007 69971 91481 60779 53791 17297 59335
106 68417 35013 15529 72765 85089 57067 50211 47487
107 82739 57890 20807 47511 81676 55300 94383 14893
108 60940 72024 17868 24943 61790 90656 87964 18883
109 36009 19365 15412 39638 85453 46816 83485 41979
110 38448 48789 18338 24697 39364 42006 76688 08708
111 81486 69487 60513 09297 00412 71238 27649 39950
112 59636 88804 04634 71197 19352 73089 84898 45785
113 62568 70206 40325 03699 71080 22553 11486 11776
114 45149 32992 75730 66280 03819 56202 02938 70915
115 61041 77684 94322 24709 73698 14526 31893 32592
116 14459 26056 31424 80371 65103 62253 50490 61181
117 38167 98532 62183 70632 23417 26185 41448 75532
118 73190 32533 04470 29669 84407 90785 65956 86382
119 95857 07118 87664 92099 58806 66979 98624 84826
120 35476 55972 39421 65850 04266 35435 43742 11937
121 71487 09984 29077 14863 61683 47052 62224 51025
122 13873 81598 95052 90908 73592 75186 87136 95761
123 54580 81507 27102 56027 55892 33063 41842 81868
124 71035 09001 43367 49497 72719 96758 27611 91596
125 96746 12149 37823 71868 18442 35119 62103 39244
126 96927 19931 36809 74192 77567 88741 48409 41903
127 43909 99477 25330 64359 40085 16925 85117 36071
128 15689 14227 06565 14374 13352 49367 81982 87209
129 36759 58984 68288 22913 18638 54303 00795 08727
130 69051 64817 87174 09517 84534 06489 87201 97245
131 05007 16632 81194 14873 04197 85576 45195 96565
132 68732 55259 84292 08796 43165 93739 31685 97150
133 45740 41807 65561 33302 07051 93623 18132 09547
134 27816 78416 18329 21337 35213 37741 04312 68508
135 66925 55658 39100 78458 11206 19876 87151 31260
136 08421 44753 77377 28744 75592 08563 79140 92454
137 53645 66812 61421 47836 12609 15373 98481 14592
138 66831 68908 40772 21558 47781 33586 79177 06928
139 55588 99404 70708 41098 43563 56934 48394 51719
140 12975 13258 13048 45144 72321 81940 00360 02428

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AP Statistics

Free Response Question 1

Patient – Doctor Registration

Multiple Choice Questions

Multiple Choice Questions 3 and 4 refer to the following probability distribution.

(A) If the events are mutually exclusive, they must be independent.

Popcorn Cookies Beef Jerky Total

Which of the following statement(s) is true?

I. The events being a teacher and choosing cookies are independent.

9. A professional football player is suspected of using performance enhancing drugs. To

Additional Free Response Question 5

Probability Formulas included on the Formula Chart

If X has a binomial Distribution with parameters n and p, then:

Additional rules (not included in the AP test booklet):

 Two events are independent if and only if | OR ∩

Other useful tools:

Two‐way (contingency) tables are particularly useful in interpreting conditional probabilities

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