REEP Study Results - Bangka

Presentasi ini disusun berdasarkan pelatihan berikut:

Training for Power System Planning & Operation with High Shares of Renewable
Energy, Phase 1 – Module Power System Planning

Leonard Hülsmann, M.Sc.

Energynautics GmbH, Germany

Belitung, Bangka-Belitung, September 12th, 2019

CURRENT SYSTEM SETUP

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 GRID STRUCTURE

150 kV backbone through the entire

island (completed by 2020)
GI KELAPA
Kp. Jawa
1x30 MVA GI SUNGAILIAT
1x30 MVA 20 kV feeders branching off the main
substations
GI AIR ANYIR
LP
1x60 MVA
Radial operation
GI PANGKALPINANG
2x30 MVA Future 150 kV ring around Pangkal P.

LP

GI KOBA
1x30 MVA

G
2
LP

PROV. SUMATERA LP

SELATAN 3
LOAD SHAPE 2018

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GENERATOR PORTFOLIO

• 60 MW of coal, additional 100

MW in the planning
• 53 MW PLN-owned diesel
generation, half of which is
older than 20 years
• 45 MW rented diesel
generation, very expensive
• 50 MW gas turbine MPPs for
peaking and backup
generation
• 6 MW of biomass and biogas
generation under IPP contracts

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DECEMBER 2018 DISPATCH

PLTUs derated to
Blackout 2/3 of full capacity
on Dec 11

Problems with PLTU

startup after blackout

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GENERATION COST

• Coal cheapest PLN-owned resource

• Tariffs for biomass and biogas IPPs about same as coal LCOE
• Diesel and MPP generation cost considerably higher
• Total generation cost around 0.15-0.17 USD/kWh

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RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL (1)

13-15 % average annual capacity factor PV

12 % average annual capacity factor wind in windiest locations

➢ PV is the primary VRE resource, wind will not be competitive

Sources: globalwindatlas.org, globalsolaratlas.org

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RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL (2)

Biogas
• Cheapest and most promising
technology: POME-EFB
cofermentation
• Processing of mill POME and EFB
residues; no extra biomass needs
to be bought and transported
• Capacity of largest 7 mills:
430 tons/hour
• Potential of generation capacity:
30.8 MW

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GENERATOR PROPERTIES BANGKA
PLTU Air Anyir
• 2 x 30 MW coal blocks
• Baseload operation
• Minimum load < 30 % of rated
• Good partial load efficiency
• Ramp rate 1.5 MW/min per
block
• Realistic flexibility range for
spinning reserve: 80 – 100 %
output
Multiple PLTD
• Mixture of old and new
generators
• High operational ramp rates
possible (compared to coal)
• Startup time per genset ca. 5 min
• High generation cost
• Efficiency losses at partial load
operation
• May not be operational any more
in the future (with or without
cable)
MPP Air Anyir
• Aeroderivative gas turbine
• 2 x 25 MW
• Quick startup, high ramp rates,
almost unlimited flexibility
• Very high generation cost
• Very high efficiency losses at
partial load operation
• Currently lacks LVRT capability
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 GAS ENGINES AND RENEWABLES

Gas engine manufacturers have realized

the potential of gas engines as backup for
renewables

• Wärtsilä, MWM and other manufacturers offer

flexible gas engines
• Quick startup and loading, high ramp rates during
normal operation
• Performance comparable with diesel engines
• Performance has been proven in real operation in
several countries
• This extreme flexibility is available and should be
required for Bangka, but it is not a good idea to
actually use it every day (generator lifetime)

Specs of an 18.5 MW Wärtsilä genset – smaller gensets

can be even more flexible! 11
HOW WILL THE SYSTEM EVOLVE IN THE FUTURE?

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SCENARIOS (UPDATE)

Branch:
New coal unit online Economic optimization
2022 Compare results

Main scenario A: PLN load projection, no cable, economic optimization

Compare results

Main scenario B: PLN load projection, sea cable, economic optimization

Strategy: Allow new

Unclear for both: LNG coal unit in both cases,
terminal available 2020? let HOMER decide
Strategy: Make gas engines whether to build it
available, let HOMER decide

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2029

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DEMAND PROJECTION

• Average growth rate of around 11 %

• Capacity expansion results will look very high compared to today‘s load and
demand – but keep in mind that both will have tripled by 2029!

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TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS

• Diesel gensets (Cummins, 1 MW, Caterpillar 5 MW)

• Multi-fuel gas engines (low speed 15.2 MW Wärtsilä)

• Quick startup times and high ramp rates, comparable to diesel gensets

• PV (utility scale, 5-10 MW installations)

• Biogas (up to 30.8 MW)

• Potential based on palm oil mill capacity
• Biogas only, as new technology allows use of EFB in fermenters at a higher efficiency than
biomass-steam installations

• Coal
• 2 x 30 MW PLTU Air Anyir
• Potentially 2 x 50 MW PLTU Bangka (currently planned)
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ECONOMIC OPTIMIZATION

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INPUTS (1)

• PV: Current cost estimates from Indonesian PV developer and other source; cost
reductions according to IRENA projections
• Other technology options based on obtained historical data
• Fuel prices based on average values of 2018

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INPUTS (2)
COSTS
FUEL
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Diesel Inflation 0.605 0.629 0.654 0.680 0.707 0.736 0.765 0.796 0.828 0.861 0.895 0.931
(USD/litre) 2018 value 0.605 0.605 0.605 0.605 0.605 0.605 0.605 0.605 0.605 0.605 0.605 0.605
B20 diesel Inflation 0.603 0.627 0.652 0.678 0.705 0.733 0.762 0.793 0.825 0.858 0.892 0.928
(USD/litre) 2018 value 0.603 0.603 0.603 0.603 0.603 0.603 0.603 0.603 0.603 0.603 0.603 0.603
Coal Inflation 0.046 0.048 0.050 0.052 0.054 0.057 0.059 0.061 0.064 0.066 0.069 0.072
(USD/kg) 2018 value 0.046 0.046 0.046 0.046 0.046 0.046 0.046 0.046 0.046 0.046 0.046 0.046
Gas price Inflation 12 12 13 13 14 15 15 16 16 17 18 18
(USD/BTU) 2018 value 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

SUMATERA IMPORT PRICE

IMPORT
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Import price Inflation 0.080 0.083 0.086 0.090 0.093 0.097 0.101 0.105 0.109 0.113 0.118 0.123
(USD/kWh) 2018 value 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080

Fuel prices are based on average values of 2018.

• Fluctuation within the year was quite high

• Prices are extremely dependent on world market prices

• Difficult to predict, but diesel will only play a minor role on Selayar in the future

• It is relatively sure that diesel will not become cheaper in the future

• Gas prices rose from 12 to 13 USD per mBTU during the course of the project

• Sensitivity analysis conducted

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MODEL VALIDATION

• Total COE same range as 2017 / 2018

• Coal LCOE slightly reduced (due to higher capacity factor)
• Diesel LCOE slightly increased (due to lower capacity factor)
• Biogas LCOE same range as 2017 / 2018
• MPP Backup LCOE much higher (>> 0.30 USD/kWh, due to very low capacity factor)

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BUSINESS AS USUAL (NO PV/BIOGAS) (1)

No Sumatera grid connection:

• New PLTU 2x50 MW from 2022 onwards
• Phase-out of old diesel generators (end of their lifetime)
• Additional gas engines from 2020 (running on LNG from 2022 onwards)
• No new biomass / biogas plants and PV

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REALISTIC SCENARIO

• Biogas and PV expansion should follow a reasonable pathway

• Start with low penetration
• Adapt operation procedures
• Use the learnings to improve the connection of further PV & biogas power plants
• Increase the biogas / PV penetration gradually towards economic optimum
• Reserve constraints
• Dependend on available spinning reserve from conventional generators and biogas;
maximum 50% instantaneous PV penetration
• Backup generation for n-2 security
• Enough generation capacity must be available for the n-2 case
➔ Loss of two largest coal power blocks

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OPTIMIZATION TO REALISTIC SCENARIO (1)

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LCOE TECHNOLOGY COMPARISON

• Already today, PV may provide a lower LCOE than conventional generators on

Bangka
• Biogas LCOE may be lower than coal, however, this depends heavily on the
technology used
• Gas engines have a much higher LCOE than coal and a much lower LCOE than
diesel and the backup MPPs

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 REALISTIC SCENARIO (2)

• COE reductions with renewables already in the short-term, increasing potential in the long-term
• In 2022-23, the PV/biogas replaces mostly generation coming from the new 2x50 MW PLTUs
and doesn‘t have a high cost advantages compared to the PLTU

Cost reduction potential

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REALISTIC SCENARIO (3)

FIT range
w/o grid

FIT w/grid

Conclusions
• Both PV and biogas can be tendered to IPPs right away if there is no cable
• With the cable, PV IPPs can be remunerated at 85% starting 2021
• Biogas is slightly above the 85 % rule, BUT it is still cheaper than any PLN generation

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REALISTIC SCENARIO (4)

• The share of renewables on the electricity generation quickly rises to 20% and
stays relatively constant
• Due to limited bio resources the share of biogas decreases over time, PV shares
increase
• Installation capacities are similar for grid and no-grid scenario. Hence, also RE
shares are very similar

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TECHNICAL ISSUES (EXAMPLES)

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SPINNING RESERVE FOR PV (2)

Source: Government of Hawaii, 2015

Study case Oahu, Hawaii:

• Island slightly smaller than Bangka, comparable tropical weather with frequent cloud movements
• Installed PV capacity 250 MW, mostly rooftop around the capital Honolulu
• Maximum 5 minute ramp observed: 21 % of PV output (42 MW)
➢ With good distribution of PV, 20 % of spinning reserves (secondary) should be sufficient for Bangka
➢ As installations on Bangka are larger than on Oahu, however, 30 s fluctuation are expected to be higher
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RESERVE METHODOLOGY

Cost based reserve merit order:

• #1: If gas engines or diesels are already online, reduce their output (diesel before gas).
• #2: Reduce coal power output, minimum output is 80 % (20 % can be activated within 5 minutes).
• #3: Reduce biogas output by 20 – 50 %.
• #4: Dispatch additional gas engines at 50 % output (they could likely go lower in reality).
• #5: Curtail PV.

More than 20 % of PV
covered withing 5
minutes, more than 10 %
within 30s

2025 single day result example

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RESERVE COST

System based on coal, diesel and

possibly LNG

• Relatively large island

• With distribution of PV across the island,
reserve costs are 50 % lower than the cost
of a smoothing battery on every PV unit
• A central reserve battery is competitive
with spinning reserve

➢ Holistic planning approach matters!

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LVRT ENVELOPE

• Based on the fault clearing times (provided by PLN) and the voltage return (simulation),
this LVRT envelope was developed for PV.
• It is less strict than the ones in larger system grid codes and will thus be easily available
from inverter manufacturers.
• Without LVRT, a short-circuit may lead to the loss of a large share of PV = system crash
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DISPATCH EXAMPLE: ISLAND 2025

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IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

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GENERAL STRATEGY

Biomass is dispatchable, causes no further

integration issues, and is cheaper than
coal.
• Use available resources as quickly as possible
• Sensible to use both with main grid connection and
without

PV is the cheapest resource, but

integration is more complex.
• Start with few small installations
• Gather data and observe behaviour
• Fine tune reserve and forecasting as capacities
increase

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 OPTIMAL PV DISTRIBUTION (1)

From the grid side, the required amount

of PV can be absorbed relatively
independent of distribution.
GI KELAPA
Kp. Jawa
1x30 MVA GI SUNGAILIAT

• 150 kV grid can transport power across the 1x30 MVA

GI AIR ANYIR
entire island LP
1x60 MVA

• For connection to 20 kV distribution feeders, GI PANGKALPINANG

2x30 MVA
loading and voltage on the respective feeder
need to be checked (see technical LP

GI KOBA
presentation) 1x30 MVA

• Feed-in from 5-10 MWp units can usually be

absorbed without problems
• From a stability point of view, no unit should PROV. SUMATERA LP
LP

be larger than 10 MW, and units should not SELATAN

be concentrated in one area

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 OPTIMAL PV DISTRIBUTION (2)

PV potential on Bangka is distributed evenly.

Recommendations:

• If the decision is taken to expand PV, select multiple

priority areas (old mines, free fields etc.) that are
not located too close to each other
• Make sure areas are close to at least a 20 kV
distribution feeder, or better, a 20 kV substation
• Tender PV to IPPs in 5 or 10 MW steps
• Start with small PV capacity (10 MW in 2020/21),
install, observe, gather data, update operational
principles
• Scale up (expand tenders) after initial experience

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DISTRIBUTION OF BIOGAS UNITS

Biogas distribution is determined by potential. In the grid model, none of the sites
showed any problems with the grid connection (almost always 20 kV).

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

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