Figure 7 and Figure 8.

The distribution of inflow and outflow in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta in the
1996's flood season is listed in Table 1 and shown in Figure 9.

For four and a half months (16 July to 1 December) in 1996, a total volume of 352 thousand million
m3 entered into Viet Nam's Mekong Delta by two ways:
• through the Mekong and Bassac Rivers, 309 thousand million m3 (88%);
• from the flooded areas in Cambodia, 43 thousand million m3 (12%), in which 27 and 16
thousand million m3 flowed into the Plain of Reeds and the Long Xuyen Quadrangle,
respectively.

Floodwaters enter the Plain of Reeds by two means:

• from the flooded area in Cambodia, 27.1 thousand million m3 (87%); and
• from canals linked to the Mekong river such as the Hong Ngu, An Binh and Dong Tien, 4
thousand million m3 (13%).

Flood water in the Plain of Reeds drains out mainly into the Mekong River through many canals
across national road No. 30 from An Phong to An Huu, 9.1 thousand million m3 (29%) and across
National Road No. 1 from An Huu to Long Dinli, 10.8 billion m3 (34%). The remaining of 11.6
thousand million m3 (37%) discharges into the two Vai Co rivers.

FIGURE 7
Maximum flooding in Viet Nam's Mekong Delta, 1994
FIGURE 8
Maximum flooding in Viet Nam's Mekong Delta, 1996

FIGURE 9
Distribution of maximum discharge and total volume in the 1996 flood
TABLE 1
1996 flood season flow distribution in Vietnam's Mekong Delta (results from the model)

Maximum flow Qmax Total volume

Inflow/Outflow
(m3 /s) W(106 m3 )
Inflow through Mekong and Bassac rivers 34 451 309 000
Mekong at Tan Chau 23 623 235 200
Bassac at Chau Doc 8 236 68 000
Canals in Tu Thuong 2 592 5 800
Inflow into Long Xuyen Quadrangle 4 437 20 800
Across 7 bridges on Chau Doc-Tinh Bien road 2 521 11 600
Through Tin Ve canal at Tinh Bien 981 4 100
Through canals from Can Thao to Cai San 935 5 100
Outflow from Long Xuyen Quadrangle 4 124 21 500
Through canals from Ha Tien to Cai San 3 288 17 700
Across Cai Sai road 836 3 800
Inflow into Plain of Reeds 9 102 31 100
Through canals from Hong Ngu to Tan Thanh 5 057 17 400
Through canals from Cai Cai to Long Khot 3 255 9 700
Through Hong Ngu, Dong Tien, An Binh canals 790 4 000
Outflow from Plain of Reeds 6 775 31 500
Across National Road No. 30 2 350 9 100
Across National Nighway No.1 2 157 10 800
Towards the East Vai Co River 559 1 400
Through the West Vai Co River at Tan An 1 709 10 200

Flood water enters the Long Xuyen quadrangle by three ways:

• from the flooded area in Cambodia across bridges along the Chau Doc Tinh Bien road, 11.6
thousand million m3 (56%).
• through the Vinh Te canal, 4.1 thousand million m3 (20%)
• from canals joining with the Hau river, 5.1 thousand million m3 (24%).

Flood water drains out the Long Xuyen Quadrangle mainly into the Gulf of Thailand - 17.7 thousand
million m3 (82%) - while only a small part flows into the South China Sea through the Cai San canal -
or some 3.8 thousand million m3 (18%).

Sediment concentration in floodwater from Cambodia is lower than that in the mainstream. In the past
few decades, the dredging of main canals and the expansion of secondary canals has had significant
effect on irrigation and drainage. At the same time, such improvements also allow more floodwaters to
flow into flood prone areas. Construction of new roads higher than flood levels also causes drainage
problems. Consequently, earlier, higher and longer duration flooding is observed in the Plain of Reeds
and the Long Xuyen Quadrangle.

Flood control planning in the Mekong Delta

Only short-term flood control in the Mekong Delta has been studied and presented in this paper. For
long-term flood control, a comprehensive basinwide study with updated topographic and hydrological
data at upstream locations as well as in the Mekong Deltais essential.

Objectives of short-term flood control in the Mekong Delta

The objectives of short-term flood control in the Mekong Delta are:

• to offer favourable conditions for economic development in order to achieve GDP growth
rates of 8.8–9.5%, increase per caput income to US$ 900;
 • to achieve compulsory elementary education by the year 2000 and compulsory secondary
education by the year 2010;
• to protect human life and property and to create favourable conditions for the redistribution of
the population and labour force. Population in flood-prone areas is expected to exceed 10
million by the year 2000 and 12 million by the year 2010;
• to protect all infrastructure and create favourable conditions for further development.
Transportation, communication and infrastructure development will be a focus. Existing roads
will be upgraded and new roads will be built to realize a rural road network connecting all
urban and densely populated areas. Navigation within each province and throughout the
region will be improved.
• To give priority to protection of summer-autumn and winter-spring rice crops to meet
increasing food demands and improve farmers income. Safe harvests will be ensured by
strictly fixing planting calendars of summer-autumn and winter-spring crops.
• To protect 134 000 hectares of orchard and annual industrial crops in shallowly flooded areas.
About 18% to 20% of the total value of agricultural production is from fruit trees.
• To meet food requirements of 11 million tons from flood prone areas totalling 15–16 million
tons in the entire Mekong Delta by the year 2010. Annual growth of agricultural production is
from 4.5% to 6.0%, while the value of non-rice crops is projected to rise from 22% in 1994 to
35–40% by 2010.
• To provide a suitable environment for supplying basic needs such as food, housing, and
hygienic conditions. The environment of flood prone areas is to improve to a level sufficient
to sustain rapid development.

Flood control alternatives

Figure 10 presents the short-term flood control planning in Viet Nam's Mekong Delta.

In shallow flooded areas

It is possible to apply small scale flood control measures for areas in the South of the Cai San, the Cai
Tau Thuong and the Nguyen Van Tiep canals, and in the Tan Chau and the Cho Moi areas, with no
negative effects on unprotected areas. However, it is necessary to improve draining capacities of all
floodwater outlets. A system of embankments and culverts for full flood control will be built,
primarily at secondary levels, to protect population centers, orchards, and annual industrial crops.

In deeply flooded areas:

• For population protection: The rural population will be resettled into centres along roads at an
elevation above flood levels. Raised floor or houses on piles will be built and public structures
will be established in these population centers. In cities and urban centers, raised floors can be
used or enclosed dikes to protect entire communities can be built.
• For protection of agricultural production:
a. In the Plain of Reeds, the main strategy is to adapt to flooding conditions with
restricted structural measures to stabilize existing double crop agriculture. Existing
embankments and dikes will be reinforced to protect against floods until August for
safe harvesting of the summer-autumn crop. Drainage outlets along National Highway
1 and National Road 30 will be enlarged to accelerate drainage from the Plain of
Reeds into the Mekong River.
b. In the Long Xuyen quadrangle, existing embankments will be strengthened to protect
against floods until August as in the Plain of Reeds. Moreover, due to good drainage
capacity toward the Gulf of Thailand, floodwater at the border can be diverted through
the Vinh Te canal and the Tra Su-Tri Ton canal into the Gulf of Thailand. Such
measures will reduce water depth in the Long Xuyen Quadrangle and allow water
with higher sedimentation from the Bassac River to enter this area. A number of
construction works are required:
• Sluices to replace seven bridges on the Chau Doc-Tinh Bien road.
• The Vinh Te Canal to be enlarged to appropriate size for drainage.
• Diversion weir to be built at the Vinh Te bridge.
 • The T3, T4, T5, and T6 canals to be enlarged to improve drainage capacity.
• Floodwater outlets, including culverts, canals, and sluices will be installed for
protection against saltwater intrusion along the Western coastline.
• All outlets along National Road 80 and along the Long Xuyen-Co To Nui Sap
and Mac Can Dung roads to be enlarged.

FIGURE 10
Short term flood control planning in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam

Boundary conditions used in the model for analysing the effects of the above flood control alternatives
are the upstream discharge data of the 1961 flood (as flood condition for design), tidal data in 1994 (as
unfavorable drainage conditions) and 10% probability of rainfall.
In two cases of flooding (with and without flood control alternatives), comparisons of the model
outputs showed that:
• In shallow flooded areas, full flood controls can be implemented in combination with
irrigation, drainage, acidity leaching, sediment trapping, etc., to accelerate development.
• In the Plain of Reeds, there are no significant changes in water level and discharge.
• In the Long Xuyen Quadrangle, floodwaters with poor sediment flowing into the central
portion of the Long Xuyen Quadrangle will be reduced from 14.3 billion m3 to 2.7 billion m3
while water with high sediment from the Bassac River will rise from 7.7 billion m3 to 15.1
billion m3 . Water level in the central part of the Long Xuyen Quadrangle will be reduced 0.20
to 0.35 m.

Conclusions and recommendations

Annually, an area of 1.2 million to 1.8 million hectares in the Mekong Delta is flooded from 2 to 6
months. Flood water causes severe damage in terms of the loss of human life, production and
infrastructure. Therefore, flood control planning is urgent in the Mekong Delta.

From studies carried out in recent years, it can be concluded that full flood control in shallow flooded
areas do not cause significant change in water flow regimes and brings high economic returns.
Diverting floodwater to the Gulf of Thailand cannot entirely solve the problem, but flooding timing
and duration can be controlled to ensure agricultural production. During 1998– 2000, flood control
activities will focus on protection for population centers along canals and roads. Key roads will be
constructed and all flood water outlets will be enlarged. Small scale experimental cases with full flood
control will be established to study alternatives in construction, management and operation.

Short-term flood control planning has been studied in combination with irrigation and drainage
planning. However, several issues are still in question. Flooding in the Mekong Delta has both
advantages and disadvantages. How can flood control planning make full use of the advantages and
limit disadvantages? Full protection is the desired goal, but it may lead to some negative effects, for
example: major changes in water levels and flow regimes in the whole Mekong Delta, hindering
sediment trapping, acidity leaching, and reducing fish production. Therefore, close cooperation
between riparian countries through the Mekong River Commission is necessary in flood control
planning.

Mathematical models have now been used to compute various alternatives for short-term flood control
in the Mekong Delta. In the next stages, effort will be made to improve models as essential tools in
flood control planning and forecasting. A monitoring network is necessary to observe changes in flow
regimes and to provide early identification of negative effects to the environment for studying
mitigation measures. In the coming years, the pursuit of long-term flood control planning is necessary
for a comprehensive solution to flood control and drainage challanges in the whole Mekong Delta.

Flood forecasting and river modelling of the Mekong Basin

Introduction

The Mekong is ranked among the largest rivers of the world. The river drains an area of approximately
600 000 km2 , covering parts of China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Viet Nam (Figure 1).
At Kratie, close to the upstream part of the Mekong Delta, the average annual discharge equals 437
billion m3 /s, or an average discharge of around 14 000 m3 /s. Downstream of Kratie, the river enters the
extremely flat and low lying Mekong Delta.

This paper addresses the topic of floods in this river and its tributaries. In the Mekong, the ratio
between 10% low flows and 10% high flood discharge is approximately 50. Years with severe floods
were 1961, 1966, 1971, 1978, 1984, 1991 and 1995. Despite the high discharges, it is not common for
Mekong River floods to cause casualties. The principal problem from floods is damage to crops and
infrastructure. In 1995, for example, severe floods caused substantial damage in the Vientiane Plain of
Laos. During that monsoon, an area of approximately 40 000 ha was flooded resulting in a damage
estimated at US$21 million.

In view of the frequency of the floods, a good forecasting system is a necessity to improve the
preparedness of the population to floods and to support evacuation plans. Since 1970 the Mekong
Secretariat (now called the Mekong River Commission Secretariat, or MRCS) has operated a flood
forecasting system for the Mekong River during the flood prone months from July to October.

Over the past decades many dikes were built along the Mekong River, in particular along the borders
with Thailand. Secondary effects of these dikes are the increase in downstream flood levels as a result
of the reduction in flood plain storage, the faster propagation of floods along the river and impeded
drainage of tributaries, causing local floods.

However, there are also other factors contributing to a reduction of flood levels. In the Mekong Basin
many reservoirs have been built or are under construction, which store water from the rainy season for
use during the dry season, either for hydro-electric power production and/or for irrigation water
supply. Incidentally, such reservoirs may have a negative impact on flood levels as a result of
changing lag times between peaks or the delay in conveyance of water from the watersheds.

Adri Verwey, River Modelling Specialist, WL/Delft Hydraulics, Netherlands

Mathematical simulation models can be very instrumental in evaluating the effects of reservoirs and
their operation on the Mekong River floods. Flood forecasting models, in general, are of great help in
improving the operation of reservoirs and avoiding unnecessary spilling of water. Mathematical
models can also lead to an improved understanding of the flood phenomena and provide insight into
the causes of flooding. In this manner, more appropriate measures can be taken to reduce flood
damage.

As an example, one might look at a country like Bangladesh, where in 1986 UNDP and the World
Bank supported the creation of the Surface Water Simulation Modelling Centre (SWSMC). Currently
this centre has a staff of 42 and is in charge of flood forecasting and flood control modelling for the
country. At SWSMC flood forecasts are produced at 32 stations spread over the whole country. Many
of the simulations made relate to the design of controlled flooding systems.

The simulation models used and their supporting techniques have improved substantially over the past
years. One important factor to this is the increase in computer speed and memory capacity. As a spin-
off of this development, also many new technologies have emerged, which open up many new
possibilities in flood modelling and in land and water development projects more in general.
FIGURE 1
Basin of Lower Mekong River
The MRCS flood forecasting centre

Flood forecasts at MRCS are prepared on weekdays during the months July to October. Data are
received from 22 rainfall stations and from 37 hydrologic stations between 07.00 and 09.00 hours
daily. Water level forecasts are produced for the stations Chiang Saen, Luang Prabang, Chiang Khan,
Vientiane, Nong Khai, Nakhon Phanom, Thakhek, Savannakhet, Mukdahan, Pakse and Kratie and are
sent to the member countries by fax around midday. In alert situations the forecasts are also produced
during the weekends. An example of the report is shown in Figure 2.

Data received are transmitted via Fixed Frequency Radio Transmission. Apparently this system is
quite frequently out of order at some stations. However, within the Improvement of Hydro-Met
Project, funded by the Governments of Japan and Australia, the number of stations is being extended
and/or rehabilitated. The improved system will still be based upon radio transmission of data.

Flood forecasting at MRCS is based upon a SSARR model calibrated in 1970. It comprises the
Mekong from Chiang Saen at Thailand's border with Myanmar to Kratie in Cambodia. The model
consists of eight principal reaches, each of which has a number of watershed models attached to the
nodes. Some of these watershed models also have channel routing components. The schematization is
shown in Figure 3.

At MRCS the probable rain depths are estimated from information received from the Thai Department
of Meteorology. This information includes current rainfall data at ground stations and their forecasts.
These forecasts are also based upon weather charts and ground radar imageries.

FIGURE 2
Example of flood forecast form

Mekong River Commission

Kasatsuk Bridge, Rama 1 Road, BangKok 10330, Thailand
Tel: (66-2) 225 0029 Fax: (66-2) 225 2796 E-mail: mrc@mozart.inet.co.th

To:
Cambodia (855-23) 42 26 201, Lao PDR (856-21) 21 7013, Thailand 398 9816 or 339 4010, and Viet Nam (844) 82 56929
National Mekong Committee. Nongkhai (042) 42 0327, UBon (045) 31 1969 and Mukdahan (042) 61 1027 Hydrology
Centres

From:
Hydrology Unit, HRD and Environment Division, MRC Secretariat

Subject
Flood Forecast in 1997

Date:
Tuesday, 05 August 1997 At Pakse, the water level is going down below the flood stage.

ALERT:
At Kratie and Kompong Cham, the water levels keep a firm rising and are approaching to the maximum levels of the last year
(Kratie; 23.00m on Sep. 29. Kompong Cham 16.11m on Sep. 29). We should be careful of the flood wave observed on August
3–4 which is coming down to Kratie within a couple of days, and the contribution from the Sekong, SeSan and Sre-Pok basin.

LOCATION
Distance from the sea (km)
Observd Rainfall (mm)
Zero Gauge above MSL (m)
Flood Stage (m)
Observed G.H.(m)
Forecast Gauge Height (m)

06 Aug
07 Aug
08 Aug
09 Aug
10 Aug

Chiang Saen
2,363
0.6
357.310
11.50
5.88
5.89
5.78
5.66
5.55
5.64

Luang Prabang
2,010
NR
267.195
18.00
11.68
11.64
11.58
11.45
11.32
11.38

Chiang Khan
1,717
33.5
194.118
17.32
11.24
11.13
11.04
10.97
10.93
10.85

Vientiane
1,580
21.0
158.040
11.50
8.48
8.45
8.23
8.05
7.95
7.85

Nong Khai
1,550
22.2
153.648
12.20
9.29
9.34
9.12
8.94
8.85
8.74

Paksane
1,395
39.4
142.125
14.50
12.33

Nakhon Phanom
1,217
0.8
132.680
12.60
11.00
10.88
10.77
10.60
10.36
10.12

Thakhek
1,216
2.4
129.629
13.50
12.40
12.28
12.17
12.00
11.76
11.52

Savannakhet
1,125
3.5
125.022
13.00
10.26
10.13
10.07
9.87
9.63
9.39

Mukdahan
1,128
0.5
124.219
12.50
11.34
11.21
11.15
10.95
10.71
10.47

Ubon

NR
105.074

5.98

Khong Chiam
910
0.2
89.030

14.27
Pakse
869
14.3
86.490
12.00
11.95
11.60
11.23
10.92
10.63
10.33

Strung Treng
668
n/a
36.790

n/a

Kratie
545
NR
-1.080

22.59

Kompong Cham
410
NR
-0.930

15.37

Phnom Penh (Bassac)

NR
-1.020
10.50
9.29

P Penh Port (Tonle Sap)

325
n/a

10.00
7.42

Phnom Penh (Mekong)

332
n/a
-1.080
10.70
n/a

Tan Chau
220
n/a
0.000
 4.20
n/a

Chau Doc
200
n/a
0.000
3.50
n/a

Charge: 2.1.13/93/JPN/Line 53 Drafted: Tien/Manoroth Concurred: Tanaka

Approved: Sok

The modellers who estimate rainfall data during the lead period of the forecast also use 10-day
forecasts based upon the Global Numerical Meteorological Model for reference. Data of further
refined models are available from the Japan Meteorological Agency. Results of their Operational
Numerical Weather Prediction Models cover the Mekong Basin in more detail and forecasts are made
available through the internet in the form of bit maps. Expected daily rain depths are shown in eight
classes on a logarithmic scale.

Based upon experience, corrections for topographical deviations from the forecasted rain depths are
entered into the average catchment rain depths provided to the SSARR model. As the rain infiltration
processes were calibrated on the basis of 6-hourly rain depths, the daily depths are distributed over the
day with assigned probabilistic weights of 0.2, 0.4, 0.3 and 0.1 respectively.

Each forecast is based upon computations started four days ahead of the actual time of simulation. The
simulation is initiated with measured discharges, overwriting the computed ones. Soil moisture data
are maintained, which implies that the rainfall-runoff models are not being updated.

Operation of the models is still based upon the manual editing of data in ASCII files. Data follow the
old Fortran convention of formatted data input, which requires very careful checking of the position of
digits and causes an unnecessary risk of mistakes. The models are still the same as those calibrated in
the seventies. However, corrections are made for systematic errors in catchment runoffs as these have
been determined during the years over which the model has been in operation.

Model results are analysed carefully before issuing the forecasts. Computed discharges are converted
into water levels via the known stage-discharge curves. Consistency is obtained with these data
through the input of initial discharges converted from water levels by means of the same rating curves.
Despite all these measures, the quality of the forecasts is not high. Although the one-day forecasts
appear to produce acceptable results, the five-day forecasts at some stations give peak watér levels
which are sometimes out by a half to one metre.
FIGURE 3
Schematization of the flood forecasting model

The hydrodynamic model of the mekong

In 1988 Delft Hydraulics was commissioned to conduct a study titled “Scientific and Technical
Assistance for Hydro-Meteorlogy and Mathematical Modelling” with the following objectives:
• optimization of the hydro-meteorological network of the Lower Mekong Basin;
• implementation of a database management and data processing system; and
• development of a Master Model of the Lower Mekong River for simulation of flow and
salinity intrusion.

The resulting Master Model is a 1-D mathematical flow model of the Mekong River from Chiang Saen
to the sea. The model was developed with the objective of becoming a key instrument for planning,
analysis and design in the Mekong River Basin. In particular, it enables studies on the effects of
natural and man-made interference's in the river basin. The Master Model was developed on the basis
of Delft Hydraulic's WENDY package (further developed since into the software package called
SOBEK).
The Master Model consists of three parts:
• the River Model for flow simulation in the reach Chiang Saen to Pakse;
• the Delta Tidal Model for flow and salinity intrusion simulation in the reach of the river from
Phnom Penh to the sea; and
• the Delta Flood Model, covering the reach from Pakse to the sea.

FIGURE 4
Verification of water levels simulated with WENDY at Mukdahan

Despite the shortcomings of the maps providing topographic data in the flood plains, the models were
caliberated satisfactorily. An example of the fit of water levels for a flood wave passing at Mukdahan
is shown in Figure 4. In view of the fact that the calibration of this model focused on the fitting of
discharges, the differences between computed and measured water levels are acceptable.

At the time of the model development, there were still some problems in improving the quality of the
hydrodynamic models. The developers of the Mekong River Model conclude that an accurate model
development is hampered by:
• large changes in the discharge rating curves from year to year, leading to considerable
deviations of actual ratings from the average rating curve applied to calibrate the model; and
• lack of data from tributaries, with only some 60 % of the catchment area between the model
limits gauged.
However, since these observations were made the scope for further improvement of the models looks
better. Since the calibration of the models, more reliable data have become available. River cross-
sections have been monitored through a FINADA sponsored river survey project. The cross-sections
have been stored in a database and can be linked to the Mekong Master Model. The availability of
discharge data from tributaries has improved since the start of the Hydro-Met Project. In addition,
there is a considerable scope for further improvement as a result of emerging technologies, as
discussed in the sequel.

Emerging technologies

Over various decades computer speed and storage capacities are increasing by 50% yearly or a factor
of more than 50 over each decade. This simply means that what a computer does now in an hour, will
be done in a minute ten years from now. Over twenty years, or half the professional lifetime of an
engineer, the work done in one hour is reduced to one second only. There is no indication that there
will be a slow down of this trend. Computer storage follows a similar trend. Whereas the PC had an
internal memory of 640 Kb 10 years ago, it now has 32 Mb internal memory. This results in the
development of technologies, which were unheard of or just in experimental phase 10 years ago.

DGPS technology

One of these areas of progress is the collection of topographic data. The combination of satellite
technology and fast computer processing speed has opened up new possibilities for collecting flood
plain levels on the basis of differential GPS systems (DGPS). The combination of laser beam scanning
applied from a helicopter flying at approximately 100 m altitude, together with a DGPS in real-time-
kinetic-on-the-flight mode, has delivered digital terrain levels of flood plains in The Netherlands with
an accuracy of 0.5 m. The laser altimetry method can also be applied from small planes flying at a
500–1000 m altitude. These planes can move at speeds of 200–300 km/hour in order to allow a correct
registration of their position. In one go, scans are made of a track of 400 m width. This implies the
scanning of more than 100 km2 during one hour. The number of points scanned is approximately 600
per ha. The accuracy of the vertical levels on the maps produced is 5 to 10 cm if powerful post-
processing software is used.

In the scans, vegetation can be separated from the ground level, if the vegetation is somewhat
permeable. Trees, for examples, are recognized and can be filtered from the surface level. The problem
with paddy fields would be the somewhat unknown depth of water on various plots, as the laser beams
would pass the vegetation, but are reflected at the water surface. Sampling at ground level would allow
the removal of the systematic error, thus leaving only the standard deviation resulting from the
variations in water depths at the fields.

Technically the method is more or less proven technology. It is expected that by the year 2000 the
complete area of the Netherlands has been resurveyed this way. However, the method is still rather
costly at prices charged having an order of magnitude of US$5/ha. This is more than the unit price
charged in Laos for conventional surveying. It is expected that these prices will go down as the initial
investment costs are being recovered, possibly to levels of US$ 1– 2/ha. The data collected can easily
be processed in the form of a digital terrain model, which has big advantages both for modelling and
for the general process of land and water development.

The potential of this method is the possibility of collecting highly accurate information on flood plain
topographies. The potential for model calibration is in the possibility to scan water levels along the
river during a flood period and receive an accurate picture of water level variations all along the
Mekong River. In other words, it is expected that this methodology will substantially improve the
quality of hydrodynamic channel flow models, both in terms of the description of the topography and
in terms of the calibration of the models.
FIGURE 5
Schematization of a biological neuron

Artificial neural networks

For extracting information from observed patterns new methodologies have come up with the further
development of computational speed. Data mining techniques, such as the artificial neural networks
(ANNs) enable the recognition of patterns which link the various sources of data. Contary to multiple
regression techniques, the ANNs do not require prescribed functional relationships as input. The
networks contain the flexibility to create both relations and their parameters as an integrated set of
data.

The idea stems from the way neurons function within the brains (Figure 5). These bio-logical neurons
receive signals and pass these on to other neurons either as amplified or as dampened signals. This
process is simulated by the simplified scheme shown by Figure 6, with amplification functions
possibly defined by a sigmoid or logistic threshold function (Figure 7). Through this schematization it
is possible to define quite non-linear processes.

The potential of this technology has been proven in fields as different as hand written character
recognition to stock exchange pattern recognition. In the fields of hydraulics and hydrology it has been
applied to areas as diverse as rainfall-runoff modelling (Figure 8), to mathematical model emulation in
system optimization, as well as to the establishment of rating curves in areas with backwaters.
FIGURE 6
Example of the structure of an ANN

FIGURE 7
The sigmoid or logistic threshold function
FIGURE 8
Example of rainfall-runoff results produced with an ANN

In practical use, however, some observations have to be made. In the first place it is evident that the
method only works if one tries to connect input signals to output signals, which also in the physical
system show a clear dependence. For example, in a river catchment the level of the groundwater table
is not just dependent on the current rainfall (input signal), but also to the antecedent rainfall. For this
reason it is clear that either antecedent rainfall data have to be given as input signals, or the current
groundwater level has to be entered through regressive definitions.

In the second place it has to be stated that the development of the ANN goes through a calibration or
training phase, just as the brains need some time to process information on what goes on around us
and learn from it. However, whereas the intuitive brains are able to think beyond the limits of what has
been learnt, the ANNs (so far) are not able to extrapolate and any attempt to do so is punished in the
form of the likelihood to produce nonsense. In principle, this danger of extrapolation is much similar
to the extrapolation of fitted curves, such as, for example, traditionally established rating curves used
in hydrology.

The conclusion on this technology is that it opens up many interesting possibilities in the field of flood
problems, reservoir operation, water balance computations, rainfall forecasts and many others. The
technology is extremely powerful under the condition that it is used with a lot of common sense.

Hydrodynamic flow modelling in rivers

The numerical description of river flow was developed in the 1970s and the 1980s and has been
improved since primarily in terms of numerical robustness. This is of particular importance in flood
forecasting, as one is dealing with extreme flow conditions. If a model suffers from numerical
problems, it is exactly here that the risk of failure of simulations is highest. For this reason, robustness
is a property that in the selection of numerical models for flood wave propagation simulation should
get a very high priority.

Improvements also stem from technological advances in other areas, such as data collection and
emulation techniques. The progress in the applicability of hydrodynamic models lies mainly in the
progress of computer speed. In Vietnam, for example, nowadays large, detailed models of the Delta
are run frequently to study salt intrusion in relation to various irrigation options, drainage problems,
including the comparison of various alternatives etc.

For optimization of systems, hydrodynamic models are currently only used in trial and error
approaches. If many simulations are required, such as for on-line control of hydraulic systems,
emulation techniques replacing the hydrodynamic models with, are being used. In such case, the ANN
is trained on the basis of a selected number of simulations with an accurate hydrodynamic model.
After this training, the ANN is applied to study a large number of alternatives and to compare the
functioning of these. Here, again, it has to be stated that in such processes the ANN should not be used
in extrapolation mode. In other words, it should not be used for cases for which it has not been trained.

Potential improvement in reliability of flood forecasts

The reliability of forecasts can be increased in various ways, such as:

• the improvement of rainfall forecasts;
• improved catchment modelling;
• improved channel routing; and
• improved model updating techniques.

In addition, the current possibilities of user interfaces, data bases and GIS systems provide substantial
scope for improvements in handling data entry and dissemination of the forecasts.

More reliable forecasts are possible in the first place by improving the rainfall forecasts. For given
meteorological conditions, rainfall forecasts can be made on the basis of various types of
measurements, such as areal rainfall distributions, atmospheric pressure distributions, wind directions
and vapour content. Radar measurements are useful, as well as satellite images. The problem is in
making this information available at the forecasting centre and in extracting the correct information
from such data.

Another and more accessible source of data for precipitation forecasting is the weather maps. MRCS
has recently introduced the practice of using the catchment rainfall from the areal rainfall forecasts
produced by the Global Numerical Meteorological Model as a reference in rainfall forecasting. This
method could be improved further through the calibration of which would establish relationships
between catchment integrated rainfall from the weather forecast bit maps and the resulting catchment
runoff. This approach is expected to replace the need for a much denser rain gauge network and its
associated transmission system in the Mekong Basin This is particularly useful, as the installation of
more rainfall gauges is not very practical in remote catchments in mountainous areas of the Mekong
Basin. Any approach to flood forecasting which minimizes the need for ground stations should be
given favourable consideration.

Another improvement is based upon a re-calibration and possible replacement of the rainfall-runoff
models for the Mekong subcatchments. Currently, the forecasting system uses eight subcatchments,
for which rainfall-runoff simulation is made. This should be extended to the development of rainfall-
runoff models for each individual main tributary, as was already attempted at the beginning of the
eighties. Besides the SSARR model, a variety of other rainfall runoff models would be suitable, such
as the Sacramento model, tank models etc. The upgrade of the forecasting system should include
extension and re-calibration of sub-catchment models, based upon information collected at MRCS
during the past decade.

Further improvements are possible by replacing the SSARR channel routing model by a full
hydrodynamic model. A hydrodynamic model is the only tool enabling flood forecasting in the flat
areas of Cambodia and Vietnam. The calibration of the WENDY model, as part of the Mekong Master
Model project finalized in 1991 has proven that such model can be developed with sufficient accuracy
for the Mekong River, despite the shortcomings in accuracy of topographical data. The lack of
accuracy, in this case, was substituted with knowledge on the flood deformation characteristics and
their relation to channel cross-section parameters. As discussed, there is now a good scope for further
improvement of the hydrodynamic models. It is quite unfortunate that so far the hydrodynamic model
was never incorporated into the forecasting system.

A clear advantage of incorporating the existing hydrodynamic model in the forecasting system is the
readily available possibility to extend the forecasting system to locations in Cambodia and Viet Nam
as it includes the Tonle Sap River, the Great Lake and the main branches in the Mekong Delta. The
principal reason to separate the model parts during their development in the period 1988–1991, at least
the model parts 1 and 3, has been the lack of computational speed at that time. The various
components were running on PC's with an Intel 386 processor. With the currently available Pentium
processors combined models would be feasible and the forecasting system could easily be extended on
the basis of one single model from Chiang Saen to the sea.

A last element in improving the flood forecasts is an updating procedure, which handles uncertainties
in input data. Currently, the updating is based upon a simple replacement of computed river discharges
by measured ones in case of differences between both data sources. However, such procedure does not
update the state of catchment storage and this is a deficiency that may contribute significantly to errors
in forecasts. It is recommended to replace the updating method by a scientifically sounder approach,
such as Kalman filtering.

Capacity building at MRCS – HU

In 1994 a Mekong Hydrological Programme Review Mission (HRM) evaluated the Mekong
Hydrology Programme (MHP) seeking donor assistance for the execution of various projects. The
outcome was the recommendation to give priority to institutional strengthening of the Mekong
Secretariat, both through capacity building and through the development of support software.

After the signing of the new agreement on continued co-operation on the Mekong in 1995 and the
formation of MRC, the recommendations were reviewed again in 1997 in the light of the new MRC
mandates. This review was made by Prof. Bogardi, who also headed the 1994 HRM. The outcome was
a revised report with a recommendation to GON to fund a project with institutional strengthening of
MRCS and human resources development as the principal objectives, together with the
recommendation to start the MHMP programme as a slightly modified and updated version of the
HRM proposal of 1994. The MHMP programme proposed envisages the development of a framework
within which various software packages already available at MRCS, or packages that will be acquired,
are to be incorporated and connected in a consistent manner.

The recommendations are a recognition of the need to develop an integrated set of tools, instead of the
bits and pieces of software installed at MRCS until now. However, it would be advisable to combine
such programme with well defined consultancy targets of the staff of MRCS. As an example, as part
of the proposed institutional strengthening it would be advisable to upgrade the current forecasting
system.

Particularly useful elements of such a programme are on-the-job training programmes, where staff of
MRCS works with a variety of specialists in various topics related to data collection, data storage and
retrieval, data processing, flood forecasting, flood control, river morphology, environmental
management, water resources management and many other. The on-the-job training must be a well
planned part of the project and should be complemented by short seminars given by the visiting
specialists prior to the start of the implementation work.

Floods in subcatchments: example of the Vientiane Plain

Laos is a mountainous country with a land area of 236 800 km2 and a population of nearly 5 million.
Over 80% of the population lives in rural areas, with rice production as the principal source of income.
Only approximately 9% of the country is suitable for agricultural production. As this limitation puts
much strain on the population living in the mountainous areas, the practice of slash-and-burn is
increasing, with a decreasing number of years left between successive use of the land for cultivation.
This practice is a highly damaging cause of deforestation and erosion. Laos is one of the poorest
countries of Asia, with a gross national product of approximately US$ 260 per caput per annum.

The cultivable areas of Laos are mainly situated along the banks of the Mekong River. The level of
protection against such floods, so far, is low. Floods are a yearly returning threat to the farmers
cultivating their crops in the vicinity of the Mekong River.

One of the most densely populated areas of the country is the Vientiane Plain, located North of the
capital Vientiane, between the Nam Ngum I Reservoir (Figure 9) and the confluence of the Nam
Ngum and Mekong Rivers. The area has a population of approximately 600 000 inhabitants and is one
of the principal rice producing areas of Laos. This area was severely flooded in 1995.

In the past, the Vientiane Plain was frequently flooded, a situation which improved after the
construction of the Nam Ngum Reservoir in 1971. However, a large part of the area is still threatened
by floods. The extent of flood damage varies from year to year. The principal problem of floods is the
restriction the farmers feel in selecting high yielding rice varieties. Consequently, a sustainable
agricultural development of the area and a reliable food supply to the growing population of the
Vientiane Plain is highly dependent on an improved flood control.

FIGURE 9
The Nam Ngum I catchment
The extent of 1995 flood damage was studied in large detail with the assistance of FAO. This
study has led to the preparation of a flood depth map of the Vientiane Plain. The map, which
is available at the MAF-DOI office, shows flood depths of 2–5 metres and in some
depressions up to 8 metres. The flooded area shown is approximately 40 000 ha. The map
clearly shows that there is hardly any flow from the Mekong into the Vientiane Plain, except,
possibly, through back flow into the Nam Ngum.

It should be noted that the accuracy of the flood maps is limited, due to the lack of reliable topographic
data of the Vientiane Plain. The underlying topographic maps date from 1960 and have a scale of 1:50
000. Levels, however, are not satisfactorily shown, as only 10 meter contour lines and a number of
spot levels are given. The preparation of the flood maps was based upon interviews with the local
population and the estimated flood depths at all spots investigated were plotted on the 1:50 000 scale
topographic maps. In the same project, the flood damage was assessed, resulting in an estimated loss
to assets and agricultural production of US$ 21 million.

For the flood several possible causes have to be mentioned:

• high discharge from the Nam Ngum reservoir, which during the 1995 flood had a maximum
inflow of 2 550 m3 /s and a maximum outflow of 2 421 m3 /s. The turbines passed 472 m3 /s that
day, whereas 1949 m3 /s left the reservoir via the spillway at a reservoir level of 213.60 m
above mean sea-level (masl). The catchment area upstream of the dam is 8 388 km2 . The PMF
for the dam has been estimated at 4 545 m3 /s at a reservoir level of 214.83 masl;
• high discharge from the Nam Lik river, which joins the Nam Ngum river just downstream of
the Nam Ngum dam site with a catchment area of 5 212 km2 ;
• additional local rainfall on the Vientiane Plain and the remaining part of the Lower Nam
Ngum catchment, which has an area of 3 363 km2 of the total 16 963 km2 of the complete Nam
Ngum catchment; and
• high Mekong River levels, which impede drainage from the Vientiane Plain via the Nam
Ngum River.

One of the factors that influenced the severity of the floods may have been the delayed opening of the
Nam Ngum I spillway gates. So far, reservoir operation is only based upon the optimization of hydro-
electric energy production. Yearly energy yield has an export value of US$ 20 million, partly as base
energy supply and partly as peak energy. The higher priced peak power contracts make it interesting to
keep the end of the monsoon reservoir levels as high as possible.

The export earnings gained from the hydropower production makes it difficult to give a balanced
priority to the conjunctive use of the reservoir for flood control purposes. So far, a thorough evaluation
of the role the reservoir operation has played on the generation of the flood damage has not been
carried out to sufficient depth, simply due to a lack of understanding of the overall functioning of the
system.

Hydropower and flood regulation

Hydro-electric power is an important export product of Laos. The exploitable potential of hydropower
generation in Laos is 18 000 MW. Currently, only approximately 2% of this potential has been
developed. However, the further development of the potential is expected to accelerate, as GOL has
been signing contracts for the delivery of electricity to Thailand (1 500 MW by the year 2000) and
Viet Nam (1 500 to 2 000 MW by the year 2010). In addition, the domestic energy consumption is
growing at a rate of 8 to 10 percent annually.

Currently, the total installed hydropower capacity is 203 MW. The largest hydropower plant is Nam
Ngum I, with an installed capacity of 150 MW. Of this, 30 MW was installed in 1971, working from
the start at the full supply level of 202.50 masl. The plant was extended in 1978 with the installation of
an additional 80 MW. The system was completed in 1984 by adding another unit of 40 MW.
Collection of data just upstream of the Nam Ngum dam site started in 1967. The hydrometric station
was abandoned during the filling of the reservoir. Since 1971 the recorded reservoir outflows have
been filed. Lahmeyer International converted the outflowing discharges into a series of inflowing
discharges based upon the recorded reservoir levels and the reservoir geometry. Mean monthly
discharges are reported to be reliable. A lower accuracy must be attached to the mean daily inflows
generated.

The area of the Nam Ngum I reservoir is approximately 370 km2 at the level of 212 masl, which is
nearly the same as the area of the Vientiane Plain flooded in 1995. In a very approximate way this
leads to the conclusion that every additional meter of flood storage depth created in the reservoir, leads
to a one meter reduction in flood depth on the Vientiane Plain. Of course, one must be very careful
with such a conclusion, as the reduced flood depths also lead to reduced drainage capacities towards
the Mekong River, so the effect of creating flood retention volume in the reservoir might be less than
expected.

In the Vientiane Plain the situation is in fact even more complex, as an important contribution to
floods is given by the discharges from the Nam Lik river. Moreover, floods are aggravated by the
contribution of local rainfall. Such a complex system can only be studied thoroughly through
simulations based upon a hydrodynamic modelling package and assuming that for such model
development data of a reasonable quality are available.

Flood forecasting and simulation modelling for the Vientiane Plain

Although the existence of the reservoir is most likely beneficial to flood control, a modified operation
might have prevented a substantial part of the damage. Such statements, however, can only be
supported with the development of a thorough knowledge of the flood system through simulation of
various scenarios by means of a hydrodynamic flood simulation model. The need for the development
of this understanding is felt both in the Ministry of Industry and Handicrafts (MIH - Electricité du
Laos) and in the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF - Department of Irrigation). There
appears to be a clear willingness to cooperate on this issue.

The development of the flood simulation model will have the following components:
• institutional arrangements
• detailing of a ToR
• financing
• appointment of a consultant
• acquisition of the suitable data processing and modelling tools
• hydrological data collection
• topographic survey of the Vientiane Plain
• model calibration and simulations, and
• capacity building in Laos

The institutional arrangement requires the consensus of MIH and MAF on the establishment of a
Flood Modelling Centre. One possibility might be to create the Centre at the Lao National Mekong
Committee (LNMC) in Vientiane, with additional staffing provided by MIH and MAF. Currently,
LNMC has a total staff of 11 of which: 3 irrigation engineers, 2 hydrologists, 1 civil engineer, 2
technicians and 3 in the administration. It is foreseen to extend the technical staff with 3 more
members, funded by GOL. Training of this new and/or detached staff would have to get a high
priority. Part of this training should be on-the-job training programmes under the supervision of
international consultants. A close cooperation with MRCS would be possible and recommended.

The ToR would focus on the need to generate the understanding of the behaviour of physical and
partly controlled process of flood wave propagation through the Vientiane Plain. The model would
enable the study of various flood control mechanisms, including the construction of flood protection
works, reservoir operation options. It would include a tool for the optimization of hydropower
production and flood control. Preferably and if feasible, it should include rainfall-runoff modelling of
the complete Nam Ngum catchment in order to support such reservoir optimization. The model should
be extended to include flood forecasting along the lines described above. Full advantage of this model
use and minimum losses in energy production could be achieved when the model would be
complemented with a flood forecasting system for Nam Ngum I reservoir. If based on the same
concepts as proposed for the Mekong flood forecasting system, the reservoir inflow forecasting system
would not require the (impossible) installation of additional rain gauges in remote upstream locations.

The total package of modelling support, therefore, would include the following model components:
• flood prediction model of the Vientiane Plain, for the study of the effects of flood propagation
through the Plain as a result of the controlled and/or uncontrolled upstream discharges,
Mekong levels and the flood control works which could be constructed in the Plain. The tools
should preferably be those already in use at MRCS;
• rainfall-runoff models of the catchments of the Nam Lik river and the Nam Ngum river
upstream of the reservoir;
• a flood forecasting model for the same catchments, set up along the lines described above;
• a reservoir operation optimization component, based upon a global optimization technique,
such as a genetic algorithm approach.

The set of tools would support the following types of studies:

• further develop the understanding of the flood mechanism of the Vientiane Plain. This would
also allow for a comparison of the floods occurring with and without the reservoir or the
routing of other historic floods, such as the 1996 event;
• compare various options of controlled flooding of the Vientiane Plain and prioritize these in
terms of various options of protecting parts of the flood plain, e.g. construction of low dikes
around the higher elevated parts, creation of storage areas etc.;
• optimize the control of the spillway gates of Nam Ngum I by using historic records, possibly
complemented with records generated through the used of the rainfall-runoff models fed with
historic rains;
• optimization of reservoir operation on the basis of real time control by implementing the flood
forecasting model;

Apart from its function of supporting flood control studies, the modelling project should be seen as a
necessary preceding action to support a Master Plan Study defining a staged development of the
Vientiane Plain. Such development would require studies on partial flood control and possibly include
controlled flooding concepts. Such developments can no longer be based upon an interative approach,
without using the informatics and modelling support available nowadays. The Master Plan would be a
logical follow-up to the “Nam Ngum River Basic Management” project, announced in 1996 by ADB.

One of the major problems encountered in setting up the modelling tools is the lack of accurate
topographic data of the Vientiane Plain. The 10 m contour lines and the incidental spot levels are by
no means sufficient to represent the storage and conveyance components of the system. Additional
surveying is expensive. For the purpose of modelling, land level information on a grid of at least one
point per ha would be required. Moreover, level and position of all sorts of dikes and roads in the area
would have to be collected. This last information is rather easy to collect, especially with the current
availability of DGPS.

Of late, these DGPS instruments can be mounted on a car or a motorbike and even in a back pack,
which allows for travelling along roads and dikes crests. By continuous recording or by a stop-and-go
method, the position can be stored continuously in terms of x-y-z co-ordinates. The method allows for
an accuracy in the vertical level of a few centimetres. Total cost of the preparation of a digital terrain
model of the Vientiane Plain for modelling purpose would be of the order of US$ 200 000, depending
on how easy it is to get full access to the terrain. The data collected could be further processed to
support agricultural development studies. However, for the combination with these studies the more
accurate and flexible method of airborne laser altimetry is to be preferred. The cost of this process will
most likely be two to three times higher.

Detailing of a ToR for a complete modelling project would require a separate mission. A rough
estimate of the budget required is US$0.8 million for consultancy input, transfer of tools, training
programmes and the additional collection of data. The study component of the project would provide
Laos with a pilot investigation, which could be replicated at other flood-prone areas. Capacity building
has to be an important element of the project. Laos has a strong need for capacity building.

Flood control: example of Bangladesh

Flood control in the flood plains of the Mekong Basin has already been applied on a substantial scale
in Thailand. The primary reason for flood control is the protection of agricultural production. In larger
river systems, with an often rather predictable time of arrival of the flood peak, the concept of
controlled flooding has been introduced. Controlled flooding implies that flooding will be allowed,
though at a lower frequency and at a time suiting better the cropping pattern. The principle behind it is
the creation of a delay of the flood, so that usually the crops can be harvested before the area gets
inundated.

Controlled flooding implies that in the case of extreme floods the waves still find storage for their
dampening and show propagation. The unsetady flow equations describing the propagation of flood
waves show us that the travel time of flood waves is a linear function of the storage available. Taking
storage away makes the flood waves travel faster. The dampening of a flood wave peak is a quadratic
function of the storage, due to the fact that slower travelling flood waves have a smaller length for a
given wave period. It is primarily this smaller wave length along the river that leads to the increased
dampening.

An interesting example of comprehensive flood control is the Flood Action Plan (FAP) of Bangladesh.
On the basis of above principles, an analysis was made for the whole country regarding suitable
measures against floods. In Bangladesh there are three principal causes of flooding:
• floods caused by the effects of atmospheric depressions passing over the Bay of Bengal. These
floods are very severe, can only be forecast with relatively short lead times and may cause
many victims. Given the nature of the floods in this country, coastal defence works are too
costly to cope with this problem;
• floods caused by the flood waves coming down from the Himalayan mountains and
propagating via the Ganges and the Brahmaputra Rivers. In some years these flood peaks
coincide and cause severe flooding. The lead time in forecasting, however, is much higher
than for the coastal floods and the number of victims is usually small. Dikes are often
attractive investments to improve the agricultural production by reducing damage and by
encouraging the farmers to plant higher yielding rice varieties;
• flash floods of local origin, due to the high local rainfall intensities and depths.

One important difference in relation to other parts of the world where flood control measures were
introduced is that Bangladesh has a very controlled approach to flood mitigation works. Whereas in
the past, many areas of the world developed their flood control works on the basis of trial and error,
the approach in Bangladesh has been much more planned, with design options continuously checked
on the basis of model simulations.

Bangladesh experienced one of the most catastrophic river floods in 1988, immediately after the
already high flood of the 1987 monsoon. The damage of the 1987 flood had hardly been repaired when
most of the results of these efforts was lost again.

UNDP, World Bank and various donor countries joined efforts to launch a Flood Action Plan, with a
budget of US$ 150 million. Of this fund, US$ 55 million would be directed to pilot projects for testing
approaches, river bank protection and flood plain management.
In terms of planning of projects the country was at that moment already prepared, as in March 1987
the National Water Plan (NWP) had been concluded at the Master Plan Organization (MPO). The
NWP had assembled a substantial amount of data and other information, developed a range of
planning models and analytical tools and had recommended strategies and programmes. Many of these
had already been adopted by the government and donor organizations.

One of the tools that had been developed at MPO was a suite of surface water simulation models. This
project, funded by UNDP and executed under the supervision of the World Bank by the Danish
Hydraulic Institute (DHI), had already produced a general model of the main river system in
Bangladesh and a regional model of the South East Region. One of the objectives of the project had
been the development of such regional models for the simulation of the effects and control of various
flood control alternatives.

Another important objective of the project had been the development of local expertise in the use and
development of such models. The project, therefore, had a clear capacity building component with the
following elements:
• lecture programme organized at the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology;
• participation in a specialized training programme at the consultant's home office;
• participation in some courses abroad;
• on-the-job training under the guidance of expatriate specialists.

Especially this last component of the project has been very useful and has partly explained the success
of the group which, initiated in 1986, now has a staff of 42 local engineers and is in charge of all
modelling support to water control and management projects in Bangladesh. It also is in charge of
executing all modelling work related to flood forecasting in the country.
Bibliography

Bogardi, J.J., 1997. Report on the Review Mission of the Mekong Hydrology Programme, MRCS, Bangkok.
Cunge, J.A., Holly, F.M. and A. Verwey. Reprinted 1994 Practical Aspects of Computational River Hydraulics,
Iowa Institute of Hydraulic Research.
DANIDA. 1997. Revised Proposal for Flood Forecasting and Effective Warning Dissemination in the Lower
Mekong Basin.
Delft Hydraulics. 1989. Network Optimization in the Mekong Basin, Final Report.
Delft Hydraulics. 1991. Mekong Master Model, The Mekong Secretariat.
Hasan, M.R. 1996. Preparation of Flood Loss Prevention and Management Plan, Technical Report on
Hydrology and Field Data Collection, FAO, Rome.
Hasan, M.R. 1997. Preparation of a Comprehensive Flood Loss Prevention and Management Plan for the
Agricultural Sector, Report on Flood Plain Mapping and Flood Loss Prevention and Management, FAO,
Rome.
Minns, A.W. 1998. Artificial Neural Networks as Subsymbolic Process Descriptors, Ph.D. Thesis, IHE -
Balkema, Delft - Rotterdam.
MRCS. 1997. The Mekong Hydrology Model Package (Basinwide).
Somboune Manolom, Hydropower and the Environment, Lao PDR, International Energy.
Reservoir management and options for flood control
Effects of reservoirs on floods

The purpose of a reservoir is usually to store water in the wet season and to increase downstream
flows in the dry season
• to maximize hydropower benefits
• to cover downstream water demands
• to improve year-round navigation
• to reduce flood damages
• to prevent a river from falling dry during droughts

Every storage reservoir provides downstream flood control, whatever the purpose(s) for which the
reservoir was built.

Reservoirs have a backwater effect which can worsen flooding along the river immediately upstream
of the reservoir. With time the backwater effect becomes more severe due to the deposition of
sediment at the tail-end of the reservoir. (See Figure 1.)

Low return-period floods, such as the annual flood, are often completely absorbed by the reservoir,
without any downstream flooding.

FIGURE 1
Effect of reservoirs on floods, upstream and downstream of dam

Engelbertus Oud , Project Manager, and. Terence Muir, Senior Hydrologist, Lahmeyer International,
Frankfurt, Germany and Vientiane

People living downstreams of the dam become accustomed used to the new conditions and are often
led to believe that floods are a thing of the past.

They start to encroach upon the flood plains, build houses and cultivate land, all in a false sense of
security. If downstream flooding then occurs, the flood damage for the same rate of flow is much
higher than before.