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STAT 328: Probabilities & Statistics: Lecture-5
STAT 328: Probabilities & Statistics: Lecture-5
Lecture-5
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BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY &
STATISTICS, BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTIONS
(TOPIC-1)
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Recap!
• Last Lectures we discussed:
• Sample space
• Events
• Counting techniques
• Today, we are going to discuss the following:
• Review on Sample Space, Multiplication, Permutation, and Combination.
• Probability of an event
• Conditional Probability
• Independence, and the product rule
• Bayes’ Rule
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Probability
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Probability
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Probability
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Probability
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Probability
SOLUTION:
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Probability-Additive Rule
• Often it is easiest to calculate the probability of some event from
known probabilities of other events.
• Event in question can be represented as the union of two other
events or as the complement of some event.
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Probability-Additive Rule
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Probability-Additive Rule
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Probability-Additive Rule
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Probability-Additive Rule: Example
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Probability-Additive Rule: Example
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Probability-Additive Rule: Example
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Probability-Additive Rule
• Theorem 2.7 and its three corollaries should help the reader gain more insight into probability
and its interpretation.
• Corollaries 2.1 and 2.2 are dealing with the probability of occurrence of at least one of a number
of events, no two of which can occur simultaneously.
• The probability that at least one occurs is the sum of the probabilities of occurrence of the
individual events.
• The third corollary simply states that the highest value of a probability (unity) is assigned to the
entire sample space S.
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Probability-Additive Rule: Example
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Probability-Additive Rule: Example
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Conditional Probability
• The probability of an event B occurring when it is known that some event A has occurred is called
a conditional probability and is denoted by P(B|A).
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Conditional Probability
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Conditional Probability
• Example : One is given the information that the flight did not depart on time. Armed with this additional information, one can
calculate the more pertinent probability P(A|D!), that is, the probability that it arrives on time, given that it did not depart on
time.
• Answer:
• As a result, the probability of an on-time arrival is diminished severely in the presence of the additional information.
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Conditional Probability
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Independent Events
• Example : consider an experiment in which 2 cards are drawn in succession from an ordinary deck, with replacement. The
events are defined as:
• A: the first card is an ace,
• B: the second card is a spade.
• Answer:
• In other words, the occurrence of B had no impact on the odds of occurrence of A. Here the occurrence of A is independent of
the occurrence of B.
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The Product Rule, or the Multiplicative Rule
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The Product Rule, or the Multiplicative Rule
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The Product Rule, or the Multiplicative Rule
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