Statistical Publications

Shipping Statistics
and Market Review
Volume 54 No 1/2 - 2010

Market Review
Analytical Focus
World Merchant Fleet
World Tanker Market
World Bulk Carrier Market
World Container and General Cargo Shipping
World Merchant Fleet by Ownership Patterns
World Passenger and Cruise Shipping/
ISL Cruise Fleet Register
World Shipbuilding and Shipbuilders
Major Shipping Nations
World Seaborne Trade and World Port Traffic

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Volume 54 (2010)
No 1/2 - 2010
ISSN 0947 - 0220

published 9 times per year

(double issues Jan./Feb., May/ June.
and Sept./ Oct.)

Shipping Statistics
and Market Review

Analytical Focus
World Merchant Fleet
ISL Comment ........................................................... 9
ISL InfoLine Special ................................................. 13
ISL Statistical Tables ................................................
18

Market Review
Economic Indicators .................................................
51
World Merchant Fleet ..................................................
54
Freight and Charter Market .......................................
57
Shipping Prices and Costs .........................................
69
World Shipbuilding ...................................................
70
World Port Traffic .....................................................
72

Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics



          

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Comment - World merchant fleet www.isl.org

This “short comment” is an excerpt from the “Analytical Comment” published in the
ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR) No 1/2 2010.

The SSMR includes detailed statistical information concerning the “analytical focus”
and provides approx. 30 monthly/quarterly market indicators (Market Review).
For more information compare attached “contents”

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ISL does not guarantee the accuracy of the information contained in "ISL
Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR)" (this is also true for the “Short
Comment”) nor does it accept responsibility for errors or omissions or their
consequences.

SSMR January/February 2010

Contents – Comment and Statistical Tables www.isl.org

Page
ISL Comment – World merchant fleet 5-18

(1) WORLD TONNAGE SUPPLY

1.1 Ship Type Profile of the World Merchant Fleet ............................................................ 5
1.2 Age and Size Profile of the World Merchant Fleet ........................................................ 6
1.3 Ownership Patterns of the World Merchant Fleet ......................................................... 7

(2) MARKET FUNDAMENTALS

2.1 World Seaborne Trade ............................................................................................ 8
2.2 Rates and Prices .................................................................................................... 9

(3) FUTURE TONNAGE SUPPLY

3.1 Tankers ............................................................................................................... 10
3.2 Bulk Carriers ......................................................................................................... 10
3.3 General Cargo and Container Ships ......................................................................... 10

(4) WORLD SHIPBUILDING -

FUTURE TONNAGE SUPPLY
4.1 Total Order Book by Ship Type ................................................................................ 11
4.2 Outlook – impact of the crisis .................................................................................. 12

SUMMARY TABLES - COMMENT

Tab. 1 World Merchant Fleet’s Reductions by Major Ship Types 2006 - 2009 ............................ 5
Tab. 2 World Merchant Fleet's Newbuilding Additions by Major Ship Types 2006 - 2009 ............. 5
Tab. 3 World Merchant Fleet by Ship Type 2006 and 2010 ..................................................... 6
Tab. 4 Largest Ships by Ship type per Ship Type Category 2010 ............................................. 7
Tab. 5 World Merchant Fleet by Ship Type and National and Foreign Flag 2006, 2009 and 2010 ... 7
Tab. 6 Development of Major Open Registry Flags 2006-2010 ................................................ 7
Tab. 7 Newbuilding Additions of the Top 5 Countries of Domicile by National and Foreign Flag 2009 8
Tab. 8 Total World Merchant Fleet (Registered and Controlled) by Region 2010 ........................ 8
Tab. 9 Ship Type Contribution for Selected OECD Countries (Controlled Fleet) 2010 .................. 8
Tab. 10 Controlled Fleets of Major Shipping Nations 2006-2010 ............................................... 9
Tab. 11 End-year Rate Level for Benchmark Tanker Trades 12/2007-12/2009 ............................ 10
Tab. 12 Total Order Book - Delivery Schedule by Country of Build 2010 .................................... 11
Tab. 13 New Orders by Major Ship Types during 2005 – 2009 ................................................. 11
Tab. 14 Total Order Book by Major Ship Types 2006-2010 ...................................................... 12
Tab. 15 Major Shipbuilding Countries – Order Book and cgt per Cent-Shares of Total Order Book ..... 12

FIGURES - COMMENT

Fig. 1 World Merchant Fleet – Annual Tonnage Changes 1998–2010 ...................................... 5

Fig. 2 World Tonnage Additions and Reductions 1998-2010 .................................................. 5
Fig. 3 World Merchant Fleet – Age Structure by Major Ship Types 2010 .................................. 6
Fig. 4 World Merchant Fleet – Ship Size Development of Selected Ship Types 1990-2010 .......... 6
Fig. 5 Total World Merchant Fleet by National and Foreign Registries 1998-2010 ...................... 7
Fig. 6 Country Groups Fleet’s Share on Ship Types of the World Merchant Fleet 2010 ............... 8
Fig. 7 Controlled Fleet Development of Major Shipping Nations 2006-2010 .............................. 8
Fig. 8 Monthly Development of Baltic Indices 2006-2009 ...................................................... 9
Fig. 9 Monthly HARPEX Container Charter Rate Index up to December 2009 ............................ 9
Fig. 10 Share of the Ordered Tonnage on the Existing Merchant Fleets by Type 1998-2010 ......... 10
Fig. 11 Tanker Fleet - Development of New Orders and Broken-up Tonnage 2004-2009................. 10
Fig. 12 Bulk fleet - New Orders and Broken-up Tonnage 2004-2009 ........................................ 10
Fig. 13 General Cargo Fleet – New Orders and Broken-up Tonnage, 2004-2009, quarterly ............. 10
Fig. 14 Container Ships - New Orders and Broken-up Tonnage 2004-2009, quarterly ................. 11
Fig. 15 World Order Book Quarterly Development by Major Ship Types 2004-2009 .................... 11
Fig. 16 Order book market shares of leading shipbuilding countries as of January 1st, 2010 ............ 12
Fig. 17 Monthly new orders by major ship types Jan. 2008 – Dec. 2009 (mill dwt) ....................... 12

ISL InfoLine Special – World merchant fleet 13

ISL Statistical Tables– World merchant fleet 18-43

(1) WORLD MERCHANT FLEET
1.1 Keyfigures as of January 1st, 2010 ............................................................................ 18
1.2 By Flag 2009 and 2010 .......................................................................................... 19
1.3 By Major Flags and Ship Type 2010 ...................................................................... 22
1.4 By Registered Flag and Country of Domicile According to Regions and Ship Type 2010 ..... 24
1.5 By Registered Flag and Country of Domicile According to Country Groups/Ship Type 2010 25
1.6 Fleet Development by Ship Type 2006, 2008-2010 ..................................................... 26
1.7 By Division of Age and Ship Type 2010 ..................................................................... 29
1.8 By Size Class and Ship Type 2010 ......................................................................... 30
1.9 By Summer Draught and Ship Type 2010 – No of Ships ............................................... 32
1.10 By Country of Domicile 2010 ................................................................................... 33
1.11 Top Ten Countries of Domicile by Major Ship Types 2006, 2009-2010 ............................ 34

SSMR January/February 2010

ISL Statistical Tables– World merchant fleet (continued) 18-43
(2) BROKEN-UP MERCHANT SHIPS
(YEARLY ANALYSIS)
2.1 Broken-up Ships by Type 1999 - 2009 ...................................................................... 35
2.2 Average Age of Broken-up Ships by Type 1999-2009 .................................................. 35
2.3 Broken-up Ships by Major Flags and Type 2009 ......................................................... 36
2.4 Broken-up ships by Country Groups of Registration and Type 2009 .............................. 36
2.5 Broken-up ships by Year of Build and Ship Type 2009 ................................................. 37
2.6 Broken-up ships by Size Class and Type 2009 ............................................................ 37

(3) CARGO CARRIED BY FLEET

(WORLD SEABORNE TRADE)
3.1 Seaborne Trade Volume in Tonnes 1989-2009 ........................................................... 38

(4) WORLD SHIPBUILDING

(FUTURE TONNAGE SUPPLY)
4.1 Ships on Order by Type 2009 and 2010 .................................................................... 39
4.2 Ships on Order by Major Types and Country of Build 2010 ........................................... 39
4.3 Ships on Order by Type and Major Shipyards 2010 ..................................................... 40
4.4 Ships on Order by Country of Build and Delivery Schedule 2010 .................................... 41
4.5 Ships on Order by Ship Type and Delivery Schedule 2010 ............................................ 41
4.6 Additions to Order Book by Ship Type and Major Countries of Build 2006–2009 ............... 42

FIGURES – STATISTICAL TABLES

Fig. 1 Tankers and Dry Cargo Ships Broken-up 1990- 2009 .................................................. 35
Fig. 2 Cargo Carried by World Fleet 1990 - 2009 ................................................................. 39
Fig. 4 Total World Order Book by Major ship types 2001-2010 .............................................. 40

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SSMR January/February 2010

Comment - World merchant fleet www.isl.org
1 WORLD TONNAGE SUPPLY 2009/2010 Fig. 1: World merchant fleet – Annual tonnage changes 1997 –
2010 (dwt- per cent)
The year 2009 was characterized by a sharp crisis in the
8.0 6.9 6.9 6.8 7.1
shipbuilding industry, by cancellations of newbuildings 6.4
7.0
and a further slow down in deliveries. Still, supply 6.0
5.7

dwt %-change
exceeded demand by far, leading to very low charter rates 5.0
and an unprecedented number of laid-up merchant 4.0 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.9
vessels. 3.0
1.5
2.2 2.1
2.0 1.0
Due to cancellations and delayed deliveries, only 2,511 1.0
newbuildings with a combined tonnage of 117mill dwt 0.0
entered the merchant fleet in 2009, 31 per cent more than 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
in 2008, but 29 per cent less than anticipated. Especially
the delivered container and bulk carrier tonnage was about Fig. 2: World tonnage additions and reductions 1996-2009 (in dwt)
38 per cent below expectations.
120
Additions Reductions
As of January 1st, 2010, the total world merchant fleet
100
comprised 46,948 ships with 1.23 billion dwt and to 1.5
mill TEU. Compared with last year’s figures the tonnage 80

mill dwt
increased by 7.1 per cent and the TEU-capacity by 11.2 60
per cent. The growth was moderately lower than expected.
40
During the past five years, the average dwt growth of the
20
total world merchant fleet reached 6.9 per cent per year,
representing a remarkable increase of 289 mill dwt. 0

Growth was moderately lower than expected. 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

The crisis of the shipping industry is also reflected in the Tab. 1: World merchant fleet by ship type as of January 1st, 2006
shipbuilding industry. During 2009, only 1,408 vessels and 2010
with 71.0 mill dwt were reported as new orders, which dwt-% Av. yearly growth Average
may also include late reporting from 2008. After the mill share of 2006-2010 (%) age
record years 2007 (293 mill dwt) and 2008 (183 mill dwt), dwt total No of (years)
Ship type 2010 2006 2010 ships dwt TEU 2006 2010
the volume of new orders was very low in 2009. It
Tankers 501.2 41.0 40.6 4.8 6.6 ... 17.3 15.6
decreased by 60 per cent compared to 2008. - Oil tankers 452.0 37.4 36.6 5.5 6.3 ... 17.3 15.2
Demolition market - Chemical tankers 8.5 1.1 0.7 -0.4 -4.0 ... 18.2 19.5
- Liquid gas tankers 40.8 2.6 3.3 5.9 13.9 ... 16.3 14.6
While the annual tonnage growth in the last 10 years Bulk/OBO carriers 451.2 36.2 36.6 4.0 7.2 -3.2 15.7 15.3
- Bulk carriers 447.2 35.3 36.2 4.3 7.6 -3.2 15.6 15.3
doubled, the scrapping for old merchant vessels had fallen - OBO carriers 4.0 0.9 0.3 -13.1 -16.2 -4.6 20.4 23.1
to very low levels due to the good market conditions Container ships 169.5 11.8 13.7 7.6 11.0 12.1 10.9 10.0
(compare Fig. 1 and Fig. 2). General cargo ships 105.8 10.3 8.6 1.7 2.1 1.8 22.6 22.4
- Single-deck ships 55.8 4.9 4.5 3.8 5.0 5.6 21.4 20.8
Since the beginning of the economic crisis, ship breaking - Multi-deck ships 21.5 2.8 1.7 -3.4 -4.8 -3.3 27.6 29.8
- Reefer ships 6.3 0.7 0.5 -1.2 -1.1 2.3 21.3 24.0
experienced a revival. After five bad years, the broken-up - Special ships 15.5 1.3 1.3 2.1 6.7 0.6 19.1 17.8
tonnage increased extraordinarily during 2009. With 32.6 - RoRo cargo ships 6.8 0.7 0.5 4.2 0.1 -2.5 20.5 19.0
mill dwt (1,275 merchant vessels), figures were three times Passenger/ Cargo
passenger ships 6.4 0.6 0.5 1.1 1.7 ... 22.4 23.2
higher than a year before and reached the level of - Cargo passenger 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 -0.7 ... 33.0 32.4
2002/2003. For 2010 we expect breaking activity to - RoRo/Passenger 4.1 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.9 ... 22.5 23.9
sustain a comparatively high level. - Passenger ships 2.0 0.2 0.2 1.3 3.8 ... 20.7 21.3
Total 1234.2 100.0 100.0 3.4 6.9 10.0 19.1 18.2
Ship type profile of the world merchant fleet
As of January 1st, 2010, the world tanker tonnage (crude, Fig. 3: World merchant fleet – Age structure by major ship types as
products, oil/chemical, pure chemical and liquid gas) of January 1st, 2010 (No. of ships per-cent share)
reached 501 mill dwt, a share of 40.6 per cent of the world 60
merchant fleet. Expressed in dwt, this is an increase of 38 50
%-share (No. of ships)

mill dwt compared to figures in 2009 (+ 8.2 per cent). 40

The average yearly growth rate for tanker tonnage in the 30
period 2006-2010 was 6.6 per cent. For liquid gas tankers, 20
average growth was even higher and reached 13.9 per 10
cent, in contrast to pure chemical tankers with -3.9 per
0
cent.
Tankers Bulk Container General Passenger
The tonnage of bulk carriers increased by 8.9 per cent (+ carriers ships cargo ships
36.8 mill dwt) in 2009. At the beginning of 2010, the bulk up to 1989 1990- 1999 2000-2004 2005-2009

carrier fleet had a share of 36.6 per cent in the world

merchant fleet in terms of tonnage, equal to 451.2 mill
dwt. In the period 2006-2010, the bulk tonnage grew on
average by 7.2 per cent yearly.
Sources
If not otherwise mentioned, the source for tables and figures
concerning the world merchant fleet, special ship type features and
order book information is “ISL based on LR-Fairplay”, please quote
accordingly. In general merchant fleet data refer to ships of 300 gt and
over.

SSMR January/February 2010 1

Comment - World merchant fleet www.isl.org
Fig. 4: World merchant fleet – Ship size development of selected
Compared to previous years, the growth rate for the ship types as of January 1st, 1990 – 2010 (average dwt)
container fleet was rather small. In 2009 the container
fleet grew by “only” 5.8 per cent (TEU) or 4.7 per cent 60000
Oil tankers Bulk carriers Container ships
(dwt). At the beginning of 2010, the capacity of the 55000
container fleet amounted to 12.8 mill TEU and 169.5 mill 50000

ship size (av. dwt)

dwt, respectively. During the last five years, 1,739 45000
container ships with 6.1 mill TEU were added to the 40000
trading fleet, the container fleet grew on average by 12.4 35000
per cent yearly.
30000
Between 2006 and 2010, the average growth rate for 25000
general cargo tonnage was 2.1 per cent. At the beginning 20000
of 2010, the general cargo tonnage represented 8.6 per 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
cent of the total tonnage (2006: 10.3 per cent).
During the period 2006-2010, the passenger fleet Tab. 2: Largest ships per ship type category as of January 1st, 2010
(including cruise vessels and ro-ro ferries) increased on Year of
average by 4.0 per cent yearly (based on gt). Include are an Ship name Ship type gt draught TEU Flag build
increasing amount of large cruise vessels. TI EUROPE tanker 234006 24.5 - Marshall Isl. 2002
BERGE STAHL Bulk carrier 175720 23.0 - Norway 1986
MSC DANIELA Container 151559 16.0 14000 Panama 2008
1.1 Age and size profile of the world merchant fleet EXPLORER tanker
q g 56693 14.6 - Panama 1999
AL GHUWAIRIYA tanker 168189 13.7 - Marshall Isl. 2008
At the beginning of 2010, the world merchant fleet had an
ZHEN HUA 23 Heavy lift 37879 12.2 - Hong Kong 1986
average age of 18.2 years, compared with 19.1 years in PROVIANA Single deck 29330 13.6 - Vincent 1976
2006. As of January 1st, 2010, about 9,500 merchant ships NORTH STAR RO/RO 65300 9.0 - USA 2003
representing 4.0 per cent of the total deadweight tonnage MAERSK TENNESSEE Multi deck 36815 11.8 566 USA 1980
OASIS OF THE SEAS Cruise 225000 9.3 - Bahamas 2009
were older than 30 years, i.e. they were built before 1980. CARMEL BIO-TOP Reefer 18931 9.3 880 Bermuda 2004
In contrast, about 35.1 per cent of the tonnage is
attributable to newbuildings delivered after 2004.
The following age profiles for major ship types can be Fig. 5: Total world merchant fleet by national and foreign registries
highlighted: as of January 1st, 1995 – 2010 (dwt index 1995 = 100)
ƒ 5,300 general cargo ships representing 19.9 per cent of 260
all general cargo ships were older than 30 years (built 240
National flag Foreign flag
before 1980). 220
200
ƒ 38.6 per cent of the oil tanker tonnage came into
180
service within the last 5 years (3,000 vessels), while
160
only about 1.5 per cent of the tanker tonnage is older
140
than 30 years (1,500 vessels).
120
ƒ With an average age of 10.0 years the container fleet is 100
the youngest fleet segment. About 37 per cent of all 80
container ships were delivered during the last five 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
years. In terms of TEU, they even represent 48.0 per
cent of the total capacity.
Fig. 6: Country groups fleet’s share on ship types (controlled
ƒ General cargo “multi-deck” ships and cargo/ro-ro tonnage) of the world merchant fleet as of January 1st, 2010
passenger ships (ferries) represent the oldest fleet
segments in terms of number of vessels. 49 per cent of 70.0
all multi-deck ships and 37 per cent of all ferries were 60.0
older than 30 years. 50.0
dwt%-share

40.0
1.2 Ownership patterns of the world merchant fleet 30.0
20.0
World merchant fleet by flag
10.0
The flag-related ownership analysis shows the increasing 0.0
concentration on open registry flags. At the beginning of Tankers Bulk carriers Container General Passenger
2010, 796 mill dwt equal to 70 per cent of the total cargo
OECD Non-OECD
merchant fleet tonnage were registered under foreign flags
– mainly open registry flag. Additions/reductions:
Additions (newbuildings) and reductions (broken-up) tonnage refer to
Tonnage registered under the top ten open registry flags the fleet data of the respective year.
totalled 683 mill dwt (ships of 300 gt and over). Leading Broken-up merchant ships
open registry flags are Panama with 287 mill dwt (23.2 per Analysis for the year 2006 compare p. 38 - 41
Quarterly figures compare p. 53 – 55
cent of the world tonnage), followed by Liberia (141 mill
Single shipping markets:
dwt, 11.4 per cent) and at a distance the Marshall Islands In-depth analyses will be presented in the next SSMR issues, namely in
with 76 mill dwt (6.2 per cent). No 2 (Tanker fleet), No 3 (Bulk fleet), No 5/6 (General cargo and
container shipping) and No 7 (Passenger/Cruise fleet)

2 SSMR January/February 2010

Comment - World merchant fleet www.isl.org
Fig. 7: Controlled fleet development of major shipping nations as of
World merchant fleet by country of domicile of owner
January 1st, 2006-2010
During the period 2006-2010, the foreign-flag registered
250.0
tonnage increased on average by 7.9 per cent per year, Japan
Greece
whereas the national tonnage increased by 3.6 per cent 200.0
only. The leading shipping nation, Greece, used the 187.5 183.2
national flag for only 31 per cent of its dwt, 69 per cent 150.0

mill dwt
Germany China, PR of
being registered under foreign flags. The foreign-flag
100.0 104.1 101.9
share for Japan, the second largest shipping nation, is
much higher with 92 per cent. Germany, the third-largest
50.0 44.4
controlling country, launched an initiative for the
Korea, Rep.of
registration of ships under the German flag. As a result, 0.0
the foreign-flag share decreased slightly to 83.5 per cent at -2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5 15.0
the end of 2009. average annual dwt growth in %

Fig. 8: Monthly development of Baltic indices 2005-2009

2 MARKET FUNDAMENTALS IN 2008/2009
20000
2.1 World seaborne trade
Baltic Dry Index
16000
From a total of 7.9 billion tonnes of seaborne trade in Baltic Panmax Index
2009, about 36.9 per cent are attributable to crude oil and 12000
mineral oil products and gas, 24.8 per cent to major dry Baltic Capesize Index

bulks (iron ore, coal and grain), 13.3 per cent to bauxite 8000
and other minor bulks and the remainder of 25 per cent to
4000
general cargo, ro-ro and increasingly to container
shipments. According to Clarkson Research Limited, 0
containerised cargo had a share of 15.3 per cent in total 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
seaborne trade in 2009. ISL based on Baltic Exchange

The high growth of recent years in seaborne trade of dry

bulk commodities, such as iron ore, coal and grain, came Fig. 9: Monthly HARPEX Container charter rate index up to
to a halt in 2009 as economic growth slowed down. December 2009
2500
Especially the emerging economies, in particular China
and India, are forcing the maritime industry to react to 2000
changing market fundamentals of seaborne bulk traffic.
HARPEX Index

1500

2.2 Rates and prices 1000

The market fundamentals in 2009 for various market
500
segments can be summarised as follows:
Tanker market 0
Jan. 05 Jul Jan. 06 Jul Jan. 07 Jul Jan. 08 Jul Jan. 09 Jul Jan. 10
The tanker market has not been financially strapped in a ISL Bremen 2010; based on Harper Petersen & Co., Hamburg
magnitude similar to the bulk market, but the tanker
owners had to sail through rough waters, too. The Fig. 10: Share of the ordered tonnage on the existing merchant fleets
amplitude of rates was much lower than in the bulk by type as of January 1st, 1995-2010 (dwt-%)
sector. 80.0
Bulk carrier
In fact, the fall of spot and time charter rates came to a 70.0
halt at the end of the year. For example, rates on the 60.0
Arabian Gulf - Western Europe trade came down from 50.0 Container
World scale (WS) 44 in January to WS 24 in September. In 40.0
the last weeks of 2009 rates reached WS 36, the highest 30.0
level since February of 2009. Tanker
20.0
According to estimates of seaborne trade, published by General Cargo
10.0
Clarkson Research Services Ltd., the tanker market is 0.0
expected to benefit from a rising long-haul trade this year 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
as developing countries such as the “BRICs” (Brazil,
Russia, India, and China) increase oil imports from Latin
America and West Africa.
Explanatory note
Bulk carrier market “Country of domicile” indicating where the controlling interest of the
fleet is located in terms of the parent company. This information is only
At the end of the year 2009 it seems that the great efforts available for merchant ships of 1,000 gt and over. As of January 1st,
2010, the country of domicile information was attributable to 37,242
of the leading economies lead to an easing of tensions in merchant ships with a total tonnage of 1.14 billion dwt, whereas for
the bulk sector. For example, China imported record 4,557 ships with 83.6 mill dwt this information was unknown.
amounts of iron ore and increased their imports of grain
and coal. Trade was also more robust than forecast in

SSMR January/February 2010 3

Comment - World merchant fleet www.isl.org
India, the Middle East, parts of Europe and in South Fig. 11: Tanker fleet - quarterly development of new orders and
America. broken-up tonnage 2003 – 2009 (in dwt)
These efforts strengthened demand for most relevant 30.0
Broken-up
vessel classes starting in the spring of 2009, and helped 25.0
New orders
underpin freight rates for the rest of the year (compare 20.0
Fig. 8). 15.0

mill dwt
The development of time charter rates was as follows: 10.0
5.0
• In 2009, the daily Capesize time charter rates
0.0
recovered during the year and reached a level of
5.0
28,800 US$ per day in September. During the first
three quarters the average for the daily rate stood at 10.0
03/I 03/III 04/I 04/III 05/I 05/III 06/I 06/III 07/I 07/III 08/I 08/III 09/I 09/III
US$ 31,644 (-77% compared with previous year).
• The Panamax time charter in September 2009 reached Fig. 12: Bulk fleet - quarterly development of new orders and broken-
19,200 US$ per day. With an average daily rate of US$ up tonnage 2003 – 2009 (in dwt)
16,855, the first three quarters’ rates were 76% below
60.0
those in 2008. Broken-up
50.0 New orders
• The average rate for Handymax bulk carriers during
40.0
the first three quarters was US$ 14,377. In September
2009, rates reached US$ 16,600. 30.0

mill dwt 20.0

Container charter rates
10.0
The container market hit rock bottom in 2009 with
charter rates hardly covering costs. Many experts feared a 0.0
long-term collapse in the shipping market that could have 10.0
resulted in bankruptcies of ship operators and some 03/I 03/III 04/I 04/III 05/I 05/III 06/I 06/III 07/I 07/III 08/I 08/III 09/I 09/III
owning companies. But most of this fears did not come
true even if the level of rates is still very low (see Fig. 9). Fig. 13: General cargo fleet – quarterly development of new orders
and broken-up tonnage, 2003 – 2009 (mill dwt)
The Harpex Containership index stood at 324 at the end
of 2009, more or less the same altitude as three months 4.0
Broken-up
ago.
3.0 New orders
On the one hand, there are positive signs for the charter
2.0
market:
mill dwt

• growing demand in the Asia and South America, 1.0

0.0
• “slow steaming” on the long haul routes, and
1.0
• a growing number of scrappings.
On the other hand, the positive signs at the market are 2.0
03/I 03/III 04/I 04/III 05/I 05/III 06/I 06/III 07/I 07/III 08/I 08/III 09/I 09/III
adumbrated by the still very high number of new ships
with delivery date in the next two years and to a smaller
extent by the growing bunker prices. Fig. 14: Container ships - quarterly development of new orders and
Demolition and newbuilding prices broken-up tonnage 2003 – 2009 (mill dwt)

At the turn of the year, the values for bulk carriers, 18.0
Broken-up
especially for larger and modern tonnage, were at an all- 16.0
New orders
time high. Correspondingly the level of newbuilding prices 14.0
12.0
was relatively low. According to industry sources, namely
10.0
Fearnleys and Platou, the second hand values for (double-
mill dwt

8.0
hull) tankers were relatively low and in line with stable 6.0
newbuilding and scrapping prices. 4.0
2.0
0.0
3 FUTURE TONNAGE SUPPLY 2.0
During 2009, only 1,408 vessels with 73.0 mill dwt were 03/I 03/III 04/I 04/III 05/I 05/III 06/I 06/III 07/I 07/III 08/I 08/III 09/I 09/III
reported as new orders, which may also include late
reporting from 2008. After the record years 2007 (293 mill
dwt) and 2008 (183 mill dwt), the volume of new orders in
2009 decreased by 60 per cent compared to 2008. As of
January 1st, 2010, the order book for merchant ships of
300 gt and over now listed 7,731 ships with 494 mill dwt,
16 per cent less than a year ago.

4 SSMR January/February 2010

Comment - World merchant fleet www.isl.org

Against the background of the current market conditions, Fig. 15: World order book - quarterly development by major ship
the planned deliveries will lead to an enormous types 2005-2010 (mill cgt)
overcapacity in the years to come. Cancellations and 70
postponements may somewhat alleviate the situation, but
60
the market will remain under pressure for several years.
According to the delivery schedule for ships on order, 231 50
mill dwt equal to 47 per cent of the total tonnage on order
were due for delivery in 2009. The share of cancellations 40

mill cgt
as opposed to postponements is currently difficult to 30
predict.
20
However, due to the bleak market conditions, it is clear
that more and more orders are being cancelled or put on 10
hold. According to latest analyses, the number of
cancellations is higher than those officially confirmed and 0
05/I 10/I 05/I 10/I 05/I 10/I 05/I 10/I
reported e.g. by LR-Fairplay. During 2009, ISL counted Tanker Bulk carrier Container Others

939 cancellations with 57 mill dwt, twice as many as in

2008 (469 vessels with 22.7 mill dwt). This was about 10 Tab. 3: Total order book by major ship types as of
January 1st, 2006, 2009 and 2010
per cent of early 2009’s total order book. It is worth
mentioning that since the beginning of the crisis especially 2006 2009 2010 cgt-%
Ship type No of mill No of mill No of mill change
bulk carriers (430 units) and tankers (222 vessels) are ships cgt ships cgt ships cgt '09/'10
affected by the cancellations. Tankers 1719 41.9 2812 60.1 2089 42.9 -28.6
Bulk carriers 832 15.8 3425 67.5 3088 61.1 -9.4
Cancellations during 2008 and 2009 by ship type: Container ships 1167 31.7 1261 36.4 846 27.1 -25.7
in 2008 in 2009 dwt % General cargo ships 889 10.8 1799 21.2 1549 17.7 -16.8
Ship type No 1000 dwt No 1000 dwt change Passenger ships 180 6.0 204 6.3 159 5.1 -19.2
Total 4787 106.2 9501 191.6 7731 153.9 -19.7
Tankers 158 6,973 222 14,349 105.8
Bulk carrier 159 10,953 430 35,772 226.6
Container ships 71 3,861 134 4,990 29.2
General Cargo 73 913 142 1,879 105.7 Fig. 16: Order book market shares of leading shipbuilding countries
Passenger ships 8 44 11 50 12.4 as of January 1st, 2010
Total 469 22,744 939 57,041 150.8 Others Korea, Rep.
10% of
Despite these cancellations, the amount of future tonnage CESA
4% 33%
supply will have far-reaching impacts. The market must
still absorb about 40 per cent of the existing fleet over the
next years. The share of the tonnage officially on order in
relation to the current tonnage supply is shown in figure
10. With view to ship types, these dwt-shares stood at 60
per cent for the bulk carrier fleet, 29 per cent for tankers
and 33 per cent for container carriers. China Japan
36% 17%

4 LEADING SHIPBUILDING COUNTRIES

Shipbuilding is still largely a domain of Asian yards.
Looking at the order book at the beginning of 2010,
China has continued its remarkable development and has
reached the first place in cgt-ranking with 56.1 mill cgt
equal to 36.5 per cent of the total world order book,
followed by Korea with 50.3 mill cgt (32.7 per cent) and
Japan with 25.8 mill cgt (16.8 per cent). All other
shipbuilding countries had a cgt-share of less than two per
cent. Remarkable is, that Italy and Germany totalling
orders of all in all 2.2 mill cgt and 1.6 mill cgt respectively
are the only European countries being in the top ten
shipbuilding countries.
About 7,100 merchant ships with approx. 143 mill cgt
equal to 93.1 per cent of the cgt based order book will be
built on Asian yards, and only 5.8 per cent of the total
tonnage on European yards (8.9 mill cgt, mostly passenger
ship tonnage).
Today, tanker and container shipbuilding is largely
attributable to Korean yards, whereas Chinese yards are
leading in the bulk carrier and general cargo segment(s).
Guide to relevant market information:
Shipping & Shipbuilding Market
ƒ Fearnleys: Fearnleys Review, Fearnleys Monthly: www.fearnleys.com
ƒ Platou: Platou Monthly, Platou Report: www.platou.com
ƒ Barry Rogliano Salles: BRS online market information:
www.brs-paris.com
ƒ Simpson Spence & Young: SSY World Oil-Tanker Trend:
www.ssyonline.com
ƒ Clarkson: Container Intelligence Monthly, Oil & Tanker Trades Outlook:
www.clarksons.co.uk
Statistical details “ World Shipbuilding”
ƒ Ships on order by type p. 45
ƒ By major types and country of build p. 45
ƒ By type and major shipyards p. 46
ƒ By country of build and delivery schedule p. 47
ƒ By ship type and delivery schedule p. 47
Explanatory note
The compensated gross tons (cgt) concept was first devised by
shipbuilder associations, and adopted by the OECD Council Working
Party on Shipbuilding (WP6), in the 1970s to provide a more accurate
measure of shipyard activity than could be achieved by the usual gross
ton (gt) and deadweight ton (dwt) measures. The compensated gross
tons (cgt) is calculated by multiplying the tonnage of a ship by a
coefficient, which is determined according to type and size for a
particular ship. Cgt is used as an indicator of the volume of work that is
necessary to build a given ship.

SSMR January/February 2010 5


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