Briefing

Quantified Risk Assessment

Techniques - Part 3
Fault Tree Analysis - FTA

Health & Safety Briefing No. 26c

August 2012

www.theiet.org
Introduction

Other Health and Safety Briefings have discussed Failure Modes and Effects Analysis and Event Tree Analysis:
„„ Risk Assessment Techniques - Part 1 Failure Modes and Effects Analysis - FMEA
„„ Risk Assessment Techniques - Part 2 Event Tree Analysis - ETA

This is the third briefing note to describe a specific risk assessment technique, Fault Tree Analysis - FTA. It must be emphasised
that this brief treatment is intended to be illustrative rather than definitive.

Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)

This is a graphical technique that provides a systematic description of the combinations of possible occurrences in a system,
which can result in an undesirable outcome. This method can combine hardware failures and human failures.

The most serious outcome such as explosion, toxic release, etc. is selected as the Top Event. A fault tree is then constructed
by relating the sequences of events, which individually or in combination, could lead to the Top Event. This may be illustrated
by considering the probability of a crash at a road junction and constructing a tree with AND and OR logic gates. The tree is
constructed by deducing in turn the preconditions for the top event and then successively for the next levels of events, until the
basic causes are identified.

Example: Crash at Main Road Junction

Figure 2: Quantification of FTA
Probability Scale Quantification of Fault Trees

1 in 10 Frequent Top Crash Probability = 0.001311 or

Crash at
Event approximately 1 in 1000.
1 in 100 Probable main road
If 6000 cars use the side road every
junction
1 in 1000 Occasional year, then it is expected that 6-7
crashes per year may occur.
1 in 10000 Remote
1 in 100000 Improbable And
1 in 1 million Extremely remote

Car at main Side road

road car fails to
junction stop
P=0.01

Or P=0.1311

Side road Side road car

car driver driver could
did not stop not stop

P=0.12 Or P=0.0111 Or

Road
Driving Driver Vision Brake Tyres
too
too fast too ill obscured failure worn
slippery
P=0.1 P=0.01 P=0.01 P=0.01 P=0.001 P=0.0001

By ascribing probabilities to each event, the probability of a Top Event can be calculated. This requires knowledge of probable
failure rates.

At an OR gate the probabilities must be added to give the probability of the next event, whereas at an AND gate, the probabilities
are multiplied. This is a powerful technique for identifying the failures that have the greatest influence on bringing about the Top
Event.

Human Error and FTA

The human error contribution to overall system failure can be included in a Fault Tree Analysis, if human error probabilities are
described in the same terms as component and hardware failures.

To include human error, a detailed Task Analysis is first required, breaking down the detail of the actions to be done, taking
account of conditions, speed of operation and the correct sequencing of individual actions. Possible deviations can then be
identified. After allowing for shaping factors, which influence individual performance, (such as skill, stress etc.), and recovery
factors, (most human errors are recoverable), the contribution of human error can be estimated, by using data on human error
rates.
References and Further Reading

„„ Cox & Tait (1998) Reliability, Safety & Risk Management - Butterworth-Heinemann, Oxford, ISBN 0750640162
„„ James Reason (1990) Human Error - Cambridge University Press, ISBN 0521314194
„„ Reducing Error and Influencing Behaviour HSG48 1999, ISBN 9780717624522 HSE Books
„„ IEC 61025 ed. 2.0 - Procedures and Symbols for FTA. Describes fault tree analysis and provides guidance on its application
to perform an analysis, identifies appropriate assumptions, events and failure modes, and provides identification rules and
symbols.
„„ BS EN 61025:2007 - Fault tree analysis (FTA) - http://shop.bsigroup.com/en/ProductDetail/?pid=000000000030101041
„„ BSR/IEC/ASQC D1025-199x - Describes fault tree analysis, and gives guidance on its applications, as follows: by defining
basic principles; by providing the steps necessary to perform an analysis; by identifying appropriate assumptions,
events, and failures modes; and by providing identification rules and symbols. http://www.nssn.org/search/DetailResults.
aspx?docid=739343&selnode=

These Briefings contain a summary of recent Health & Safety issues, provided for general information purposes only, and should
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The IET is unable to provide further information on this topic. Please contact the HSE http://www.hse.gov.uk/
 Briefing

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