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    UTS Decision Tree Arief Aradhiya 29120598

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    Ayda Khadiva
    The document presents information on the potential success rates and profits/losses of three investment options: solar, wind, and gasoline. It then calculates the expected monetary value (EMV) of each option based on the potential outcomes. The EMV is highest for solar at $190.63, followed by gasoline at $125, with wind at $60. The document recommends choosing the solar option. It then provides additional details on modifying one of the options to increase its potential profit and success rate.

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    UTS Decision Tree Arief Aradhiya 29120598

    Uploaded by

    Ayda Khadiva
    21 views6 pages
    The document presents information on the potential success rates and profits/losses of three investment options: solar, wind, and gasoline. It then calculates the expected monetary value (EMV) of each option based on the potential outcomes. The EMV is highest for solar at $190.63, followed by gasoline at $125, with wind at $60. The document recommends choosing the solar option. It then provides additional details on modifying one of the options to increase its potential profit and success rate.

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    UTS Decision Tree Arief aradhiya 29120598

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    The document presents information on the potential success rates and profits/losses of three investment options: solar, wind, and gasoline. It then calculates the expected monetary value (EMV) of each option based on the potential outcomes. The EMV is highest for solar at $190.63, followed by gasoline at $125, with wind at $60. The document recommends choosing the solar option. It then provides additional details on modifying one of the options to increase its potential profit and success rate.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    21 views6 pages

    UTS Decision Tree Arief Aradhiya 29120598

    Uploaded by

    Ayda Khadiva
    The document presents information on the potential success rates and profits/losses of three investment options: solar, wind, and gasoline. It then calculates the expected monetary value (EMV) of each option based on the potential outcomes. The EMV is highest for solar at $190.63, followed by gasoline at $125, with wind at $60. The document recommends choosing the solar option. It then provides additional details on modifying one of the options to increase its potential profit and success rate.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 6

    Success

    A 45%
    Solar

    Fail
    55.00%

    Success
    60%
    Wind

    Fail
    40%
    1

    Success
    50%
    Gasoline

    Fail
    50%

    B.1 Maximax $ 225 Based on the Value Maximax, Decision is Solar


    B.2 Max Likelihood
    B.3 EMV $ 125 Based on the EMV result, Decision is Gasoline

    A Success Profit
    45%
    Solar

    Fail
    55.00%

    Success Profit
    60%
    Wind
    2
    2

    Fail
    40%

    Success Profit
    50%
    Gasoline

    Fail Loss
    50%

    EMV Solar $ 190.63

    EMV Wind $ 60.00

    EMV Gasoline $ 125

    The chosen design if modify option is available is Solar


    Profit $ 500 Value Success $ 225

    EMV $ 115

    Loss $ (200) Value Loss $ (110)

    Profit $ 200 Value Success $ 120

    EMV $ 90

    Loss $ (75) Value Loss $ (30)

    Profit $ 400 Value Success $ 200

    EMV $ 125

    Loss $ (150) Value Loss $ (75)

    , Decision is Solar

    cision is Gasoline

    $ 500 Value Success $ 225

    Success Profit $ 300 Value Success $ 225


    Modify 75%

    Fail 25% $ (250) Value Loss $ (63)


    Loss

    No Modify Loss $ (200) EMV No Modify $ -

    $ 200 Value Success $ 120


    Modify Success Profit $ 100 Value Success $ 25
    25%

    Fail 75% $ (90) Value Loss $ (68)


    Loss

    No Modify Loss $ (75) EMV No Modify $ (30)

    $ 400 Value Success $ 200

    EMV $ 125

    $ (150) Value Loss $ (75)


    EMV $ 163
    EMV $ (42.50)

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