SPATIAL HYDROLOGY

GIS-838

CLIMATOLOGY

By Dr. Muhammad Azmat

Lecture 2
 Precipitation
• Convective: Convective precipitation is generally more intense, and of shorter duration.
precipitation occurs when moist air is forced upwards over rising terrain, such as a
mountain. Precipitation can also fall in either liquid or solid phases, or transition between
them.
 Local
 High intensity
 High spatial and temporal variability
 Difficult to track or forecast
 Thunderstorms usually generated
• Orographic: precipitation produced when moist air is lifted as it moves over a mountain
range. As the air rises and cools, orographic clouds form and serve as the source of the
precipitation, most of which falls upwind of the mountain ridge.
 Elevation, slope, orientation of slope, distance from vapor source
• Cyclonic : Cyclonic precipitation is caused by lifting of an air mass due to the pressure
difference.
 Regional
 Low intensity
 Easily tracked by surface or satellite radar sensing
 Weather forecasting – models for rate, total precipitation depth, storm duration, velocity,
direction, etc.
Precipitation Measurements
• Magnitude,
• Intensity,
• Location,
• Patterns of precipitation
• Quantity of precipitation as well as, the spatial and temporal distributions
considerably effects on the hydrologic response.
Precipitation Measurements
Precipitation Measurements
Precipitation Measurements
Precipitation Measurements
Precipitation Measurements
Precipitation Measurements
Precipitation Measurements
Precipitation Measurements
Precipitation Measurements
Precipitation Measurements
Precipitation Measurements
Precipitation Measurements
Precipitation Measurements
Precipitation Measurements
Precipitation Measurements
Precipitation Measurements
Precipitation Measurements
Precipitation Measurements
Precipitation Measurements
Temporal and Spatial Variation Precipitation
• Rainfall varies greatly both in time and space
• With respect to time – temporal variation
• With space – Spatial variation

• The temporal variation may be defined as hourly, daily,

monthly, seasonal variations and annual variation (long-term
variation of precipitation)

• The spatial variation is due to change in location.

Temporal and Spatial Variation Precipitation
Temporal Variation of rainfall at a particular site

14
Rainfall Intensity, cm/hr

12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Time, min
Temporal and Spatial Variation Precipitation
Temporal and Spatial Variation Precipitation
Temporal and Spatial Variation Precipitation
Temporal and Spatial Variation Precipitation
Temporal and Spatial Variation Precipitation
Temporal and Spatial Variation Precipitation
Temporal and Spatial Variation Precipitation
Temporal and Spatial Variation Precipitation
Temporal and Spatial Variation Precipitation
Temporal and Spatial Variation Precipitation
Temporal and Spatial Variation Precipitation
Temporal and Spatial Variation Precipitation
Temporal and Spatial Variation Precipitation
Temporal and Spatial Variation Precipitation
Temporal and Spatial Variation Precipitation
Temporal and Spatial Variation Precipitation
Temporal and Spatial Variation Precipitation
 Gridded datasets: ERA-Interim
• ERA-Interim is a third generation global atmospheric reanalysis product with
an improved atmospheric model and assimilation system, produced by the
European Centre for Mediumrange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) providing
data from 1979 to present.
• Estimates of precipitation associated with the reanalysis are produced by the
forecast model, based on temperature and humidity information derived from
assimilated observations.
• Temporal range is sub-daily, daily and monthly intervals
• Spatial resolution of 0.75° latitude–longitude grid.
• Source: Dee, D.P., et al. (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and
performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137,
553–597. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.828,2011.4757,4759,4775.
Gridded datasets: ERA-Interim
Gridded datasets: WFDEI
• The WATCH Forcing Data-ERA Interim (WFDEI) dataset is derived from ERA-
Interim reanalysis product via sequential interpolation at 0.5° spatial
resolution, elevation correction and monthly-scale adjustments based on CRU
TS3.1/TS3.21 and GPCCv5/v6 monthly precipitation observations for 1979–
2012 combined with new corrections for varying atmospheric aerosol-loading
and separate precipitation gauge corrections for rainfall and snowfall under the
Water and Global Change (WATCH) programme of the European Union.

• Source: Weedon, G.P., et al, 2014. The WFDEI meteorological forcing data
set: WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERAInterim reanalysis data.
Water Resour. Res. 50, 7505–7514
Gridded datasets: TRMM
• The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), launched in November 1997
as a joint project by NASA and the Japanese Space Agency (JAXA), is
instrumented with Precipitation Radar (PR), TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI),
and Visible Infrared Scanner (VIRS). The PR provides three-dimensional
maps of storm structure giving information on the intensity, distribution and
type of rain, storm depth and the height at which the snow melts into rain. The
TMI quantifies water vapour and cloud water content as well as the rainfall
intensity in the atmosphere, while the VIRS provides the cloud context of the
precipitation and connects microwave precipitation information to infrared
based precipitation estimates from geosynchronous satellites.

• The TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) combines all the

available precipitation datasets from different satellite sensors and monthly
surface rain gauge data to provide a “best” estimate of precipitation at spatial
resolution of 0.25°.
 Gridded datasets: TRMM
Spatial pattern of average annual precipitation (mm/year) over NPK from (a) gauges, (b) IMERG, (c) 3B42V7 and (d) 3B42RT.
Gridded datasets: APHRODITE
• Asian Precipitation-highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards
Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) is the state-of the- art high
resolution daily precipitation dataset developed by a consortium between the
Research Institute for Humanity and Nature
• (RIHN) Japan and the Meteorological Research Institute of Japan
Meteorological Agency (MRI/JMA) from a dense rain gauge observational
network in Asia. The precipitation data from a dense network of rain gauges is
1st interpolated on to a grid of 0.25x0.25 or 0.5x0.5 degree using the modified
version of the distance-weighting interpolation method, which considers
sphericity and orography by the Spheremap and the Mountain Mapper
methods respectively.
• This dataset is then regridded to 0.25° and 0.5° products using the area-
weighted mean. The algorithm is improved in that the weighting function
considers the local topography between the rain-gauge and interpolated point.
The very high resolution dataset is restricted to the partner institutes only and
is not publicly available for the period extending from 1951–2015.
Gridded datasets: APHRODITE
Gridded datasets: APHRODITE
Gridded datasets: APHRODITE

• Flow chart of creating APHRODITE gridded precipitation data

Gridded datasets: APHRODITE
• Quality Control (QC): In QC, If a large value exceeds "country record" of the
country, the data is automatically rejected. However, there is sometimes
record-breaking heavy rainfall, and sometimes the "country record"
information of the historical maximum is not available. In order to distinguish
the real extremes with errors, we compared the large amount values with
satellite estimates. Normally uses two satellite daily precipitation products (e.g.
CMORPH, TRM3B42) to check large precipitation values and isolated extreme
values, and to judge whether they are really extreme or not. Then, we rescued
real extremes to the white list and discarded false extremes in the blacklist.
• End of the Day (EOD): In some countries, precipitation is observed hourly or
every 10 minutes, and in other countries, precipitation is measured in the
morning or at a regulated time manually. For example, in Pakistan, "daily
precipitation" is observed in the morning (8:30 local time, LT), and stamped on
that day. 8:30LT corresponds to 03 UTC (universal time). Hence, if station data
shows 10 mm/day on August 31st, then, 10 mm rainfall is observed from 03
UTC of August 30th to 03 UTC of August 31st. We call this record as "EOD =
03 UTC".
Gridded datasets: APHRODITE
• Station Value Conservation (SVC): When we interpolate station values, we
take several to several decades worth of station data around the target grid
into consideration. Hence, if extremely heavy and localized precipitation
occurs at or very near to the grid box, using many surrounding station data
may cause underestimate/overestimate of the target grid-box precipitation.
After interpolation of ratio to climatology and after getting grid precipitation
values by multiplying ratio to climatology, we put the original station value to
the 0.05 degree grid box, if the grid box has a station. That means, the station
value is conserved (SVC) at each 0.05 grid box. If there are two or more
stations in a grid box, we average them and put the averaged value into the
grid box. In the same manner, if the grid box has no rainfall, but if surrounding
stations have rainfall, that will show some precipitation.
Gridded datasets: APHRODITE

• Flow chart of creating APHRODITE gridded temperature data

Temporal and Spatial Variation Precipitation
 Temporal and Spatial Variation Precipitation

Spatial distribution of precipitation in mm for a) pre-monsoon (Apr–Jun), b)monsoon (Jul–Sep), c)

winter (Oct–Mar) and d) annual basis.
Temporal and Spatial Variation Precipitation
 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Project
• CMIP3 (IPCC AR4 Report 2007)

• CMIP5 (IPCC AR5 Report 2014)

• CMIP6 (IPCC AR6 Report 2020)

 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Projects
• Atmosphere‐ocean general circulation models (GCMs) are the most important tools for simulating
the current climate and projecting future changes under scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions.

• This project provides coordinated simulations from state‐of‐the‐art global climate models and
supports the Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC AR4 and AR5).

• The number of GCMs available for climate change projections is increasing rapidly. For example,
the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) archive, which was used for the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) fourth Assessment Report contains outputs
from 25 different GCMs.

• CMIP5 archive which was used for the fifth IPCC Assessment Report (IPCC, 2013), contains
outputs from 61 different GCMs with multiple ensemble members, resulting in an even larger
number of available model runs.

• Despite improvements in the CMIP5 models compared to CMIP3 in terms of process

representation, uncertainty about the future climate remains large and even increases locally with
the larger number of models available.
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Projects
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Projects
 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Projects
Climate models are often selected based on their skill to simulate the present and near-past climate
 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Projects
Selection of representative concentration pathways:

• In the climate modelling community, four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are
generally used as a basis for long-term and near-term climate modelling experiments.

• The four selected RCPs are considered to be representative of the scientific literature and
include one mitigation scenario (RCP2.6), two medium stabilization scenarios
(RCP4.5/RCP6) and one very high baseline emission scenario (RCP8.5)

• RCP2.6 is representative of the low end of the scenario in terms of emissions and radiative
forcing Often, these scenarios show negative emissions from energy use in the second half
of the 21st century.
 CMIP6
CMIP6 will consist of the “runs” from around 100 distinct climate models being produced across 49
different modelling groups.
The historical forcings are based as far as possible on observations and cover the period 1850–
2014. These include:
– emissions of short-lived species and long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs),
– GHG concentrations,
– global gridded land-use forcing data sets,
– solar forcing,
– stratospheric aerosol data set (volcanoes),
– AMIP sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice concentrations (SICs),
– for simulations with prescribed aerosols, a new approach to prescribe aerosols in terms of
optical properties and fractional change in cloud droplet effective radius to provide a more
consistent representation of aerosol forcing, and
– for models without ozone chemistry, time-varying gridded ozone concentrations and nitrogen
deposition.
- Some models might require additional forcing data sets (e.g. black carbon on snow or
anthropogenic dust)
• Future period 2015–2100 (or until 2300 for the extended simulations
• Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs)
 CMIP6
In CMIP6. These updated scenarios are called
SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5,
CMIP6
CMIP6