Statistically Derived Rate-of-Change

Oil Analysis Limits and Alarms

Mark Barnes, Noria Corporation Drew Troyer, Noria Corporation
Tags: oil analysis
Practicing Oil Analysis (1/2002)

Using statistics to set oil analysis alarms and limits is a powerful and time-saving tool that allows the analyst to focus
attention on those machines that are believed to be in trouble. Typically, this approach is used to set level limits, which
act as flags or trip wires alerting the analyst to nonconforming results. Level limits simply mean setting a maximum or
minimum acceptable level for oil analysis parameters such as iron, copper, lead, etc.

In setting statistically derived level limits, it is usually assumed that that the data is normally distributed (follows the
familiar bell-shaped distribution curve), allowing caution and critical levels to be identified as a function of the mean
and standard deviation of the data. For a large enough data set, this is generally the case. For more on using statistics
to set level alarms, see “Use Statistical Analysis to Create Wear Debris Alarm Limits,” by Jonathon Sowers, in the
November-December 2001 issue of Practicing Oil Analysis magazine.

This article illustrates how these same powerful statistical principles can be applied to the calculation of precise
rate-of-change alarms, which can offer far greater sensitivity when interpreting historical oil analysis data.

Calculating Rate-of-Change Alarms

Rate-of-change, as the name implies, focuses not on the actual measured level of the parameter, but rather the rate at
which the parameter is moving over a given period of time. With some work, rate-of-change analysis can be much
more sensitive than level-based alarms because the analyst tracks movement of the target parameter relative to time,
miles or cycles.

Rate-of-change analysis is an evaluation of the slope of the data (Figure 1). In this model, the slope is simply the rise
divided by the run, or the change since the last reading.

For example, if a machine generates 100 ppm of iron during a 100-hour run period, the slope is one (1.0) and it can be
said that the machine has an iron production rate of 1 ppm/hour. If the same machine generates 160 ppm of iron
during the next 100-hour run period, the slope is 1.6, or an iron production rate of 1.6 ppm/hr. Similarly, if the iron level,
for some reason decreases by 100 ppm during the next 100-hour run period, the slope is negative one (-1.0). So,
slope calculations can be either positive or negative, depending on whether the measured parameter goes up or
down.

The first stage in a statistical analysis is to calculate the mean. However, because the slope can be either positive or
negative, this can create a problem when calculating the average using the standard formula for the arithmetic mean.
To circumvent this problem, a slightly modified formula using the absolute value of the slope is required. To determine
the absolute value of an observation, simply disregard the sign of the slope, so that a slope of +1.0 or -1.0 is
considered to have the same absolute value of 1.0.

Using the absolute value to calculate the average and standard deviation seems intuitively unsettling to many people.
The natural reaction is that the analyst is interested in determining if the target parameter is moving up or down, so the
sign has meaning. However, keep in mind that statistical alarms are simply a mathematical tool, designed to help the
analyst differentiate normal variations from an abnormal event. Once the alarm sounds, so to speak, the mathematical
tool prompts one to investigate and determine the nature of the problem, including the direction of movement.

For the purpose of setting oil analysis alarms, it is also necessary to calculate the standard deviation from the target oil

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 analysis parameter slope observations. While the mean defines what might be considered a normal reading for a
given parameter, the standard deviation is simply a way of determining the probability that the parameter will vary from
the arithmetic mean. Simply put, the larger the standard deviation, the wider the expected variation in the slope. A
large standard deviation will result in a wider range of acceptable values, but with less precision as to what can be
considered normal.

The calculation of the standard deviation for rate-of-change slopes observations is exactly like the standard formula
except, again, one must use the absolute value of the observation.

Some machines will normally have increasing levels for some oil analysis parameters, such as the iron concentration
in an unfiltered gearbox. In these instances, rate-of-change may be the only reasonable way to judge a machine’s
condition because the level is in a constant state of flux. The statistically derived rate-of-change method accounts for
this fluctuation. The table in Figure 2 identifies a clearly escalating iron level, which when applying level limits, may
indicate cause for concern. However, the corresponding rate-of-change trend plot is relatively flat because the change
per hour remains fairly stable at just under 0.1 ppm per hour, indicating that nothing significant has changed with this
gearbox.

Figure 2

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 Going one stage further, apply the statistical model to calculate the lower and upper caution and critical limits based
on the mean and standard deviation of the slopes. The limits in Figure 2 were set at ± one and two standard
deviations from the mean for caution and critical respectively. As the figure illustrates, only the 1002- and 2240-hour
readings are cautionary, and in fact only the 1002-hour reading is a high caution, indicating a potential problem.

Setting alarms at the one and two standard deviation level is very conservative. Setting alarms at ± two and three
standard deviations for caution and critical respectively is much more liberal, and requires higher confidence in the
data, typically as a result of a larger data set.

For statistical analysis, the larger the data set, the greater the precision to which limits can be set. The rule of thumb
has always been that 30 observations is the point at which the sample begins to accurately estimate the population
mean. Don’t wait until you have 30 observations to begin, simply recognize tht your confidence will grow as the data
set becomes larger. For smaller data sets, a more sophisticated, but not terribly difficult, approach can be used to
define the confidence interval using Student’s t tables. This is beyond the scope of this article, but can be applied in
much the same way as the simple normal population approach outlined here.

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 Statistically derived rate-of-change oil analysis limits are very effective and easy to apply. Often, these alarms are
more sensitive than simple level limits, but are most effective when used in conjunction with level limits. Here are
some final tips for making this strategy work:

Because this method is based on the change in the target parameter relative to a given change in hours, miles
or cycles, it is critical that hours, miles or cycles accurately recorded. So, get into the habit of noting this
information each and every time a sample is collected. When using a miles or kilometers basis, be sure to
check the odometer at the time the sample is drawn and clearly record the findings. Likewise, for stationary
equipment record the precise operating hours at the time the sample is drawn. If the machine does not have an
hour meter, it may be necessary to install one if the data can’t be retrieved from the control system software.

Like other statistically derived alarms, a larger number of data points will produce higher quality inferences, but
go ahead and run the statistics once four or five readings have been recorded. Simply improve the estimate of
the mean and standard deviation over time as data is acquired.

It is important to effectively group sampling points according to machine type, sample location, application, oil
type, operating environment and other differentiating factors. Don’t simply lump everything together. In fact, two
identical machines performing the same function in the same place might produce significantly different
readings. Where possible, it is desirable to perform statistical analysis on a machine-by-machine basis.

Edit (remove) unusually high or low readings regardless of the cause of the abnormality. These readings
increase the estimate of both the average and standard deviation, reducing the sensitivity of the calculated
alarms. By and large, data editing is a subjective activity. While more sophisticated techniques are available for
identifying outliers that require follow-up, one can usually (and quite effectively) remove the data points that
look wrong without compromizing the integrity of the data.

Any systemic changes (filter upgrade, lubricant upgrade, increased precision in alignment, etc.) will affect the
slope and variability of the data. Because statistics always implies looking backward and using historical data to
make a judgment call about the future, these systemic changes cloud one’s view, and statistical analysis must
begin again after such a change.

Oil analysis software typically accommodates multiple alarms for a single parameter. Statistically derived
rate-of-change alarms are most effective when coupled with goal-based proactive alarms or statistically derived
level limits.

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