Name : Christian Matthew Wiwaha

NIM : 001202100131

Session 5 Statistic Assignment Oct 2021

1. Calculate the monthly average number of cases and deaths of COVID-19 for the period from
January 2021 to June 2021 - totally around 5 consecutive months as a data set. (see
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/indonesia/). Determine the probability of
death cases for the month of January 2022 if the average number of monthly cases that occur is
the same as in 2021. (see slide #5 of session 5).

Total Cases and Death COVID – 19

( January 2021 – June 2021 )

Month Total Cases Total Death Average Number Average Number

Cases of Cases of Death
January 335,116 7,860 10810.19 253.5
February 256,320 6,168 9154.28 220.2
March 177,078 4,692 5712.19 151.3
April 156,656 4,663 5221.86 155.4
May 153,335 5,057 4946.29 163.1
June 356,569 7,913 11502.22 263.7
Total 1.435.074 36.353 47.347,44 1.207,2
Mean 239.18 6.058,83 7.891,34 201,2

Mean Number Of Deat h

P( E)=
Mean Number Of Cases
f
¿
n
20 2
P ( deat h case january 2022 ) = =0,0 3
7 892

So , the probability of death cases for the month of January 2022 if the average number of
monthly cases that occur is the same as in 2021 is
0,0 3

2. Use the same data set as in problem #1 to calculate the probability of a death case in 2 class. (see
slide #7 of session 5).
The Probability of a Death Case
 151.35 155.45 163.12 220.08 253.54 263.76

Rounding up :

152 156 164 221 254 264

Class Width : (264 – 152) / 5 = 22.4 23

Class Frequency Midpoint

152-174 3 163
175-197 0 186
198-220 0 209
221-243 1 232
244-266 2 255
∑ f =6

0
P(death cases175-197) ¿ = underfined
6

So , the probability of death cases in 175-197 is underfined , Because the

frequency is 0.

3. Pandemic experts estimate that the probability of the number of deaths from the COVID-19 virus
in 2022 will be 0.15 after looking at today's death toll. If we use today's COVID-19 death case
data, then calculate the probability of COVID-19 death cases for 2022. (see slide #8 of session
5).

(Total death at 7 oct – death on 6 oct) * 0.15 = 81 * 0.15 = 12.15 = 13

So , If we use on data October 6 2021 COVID-19 death case data, the probability of
COVID-19 death cases for 2022 is 13 Death cases