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Chapter 3 Stocks and Bond Valuation
Chapter 3 Stocks and Bond Valuation
Chapter 3 Stocks and Bond Valuation
3-1
Learning outcomes
After studying this chapter you should be able to:
Explain the theory framework of discounting cash flow (DCF)
approach in valuation.
Understand how stock’s value depend on future dividends and
dividend growth and compute stock’s intrinsic value using the
dividend growth model
Understand how a stock’s intrinsic value can be estimate using
corporate’s FCF discounting model.
Understand how to value stocks using multiples.
Explain how to estimate the value of preferred stock.
Explain how to estimate the value of bonds
3-2
Materials
Handout
Brigham & Houston, Fundamentals of financial
management, chapter 8, 9.
Jim DeMello, 2006, Cases in Finance, Mc Graw- Hill (Case
10, 11, 12)
3-3
Outline
3-4
Common Stock valuation
3-5
Values concepts
3-6
Liquidation value vs going
concern value
Liquidation value: Net proceeds that could be
realized by selling the firm’s assets
separately and paying off its creditors.
Going concern Value: the amount the firm could
be sold for as a continuing operating
business.
Book Value: Net worth of the firm according to
the balance sheet.
3-7
Intrinsic value vs market value
3-8
Intrinsic value vs market value
3-9
Intrinsic Value and Stock Price
Outside investors, corporate insiders, and
analysts use a variety of approaches to
estimate a stock’s intrinsic value (P0).
In equilibrium we assume that a stock’s price
equals its intrinsic value.
Outsiders estimate intrinsic value to help
determine which stocks are attractive to
buy and/or sell.
Stocks with a price below (above) its
intrinsic value are undervalued
(overvalued).
3-10
Determinants of Intrinsic Value
and Stock Prices (Figure 1-1)
3-11
General DCF model
3-12
General DCF Model
0 1 2 n
r% ...
Value CF1 CF2 CFn
3-13
General DCF model
3-14
General DCF model
3-15
Different approaches for estimating the
intrinsic value of a common stock
3-16
Dividend discount model
3-17
Cash Flows for Stockholders
If you buy a share of stock, you can receive cash
in two ways
Receive Dividends (Periodic cash distribution
3-19
Intrinsic value at t=0 for 1
period holding
The value of the stock is the present value of
expected dividend (D1) and expected price (P1) in 1
year, discounted at required rate on the stock.
^ D1 P1
P0
(1 rs ) 1
(1 rs )1
3-20
Stock valuation
One-Period Example
Suppose you are thinking of purchasing the stock of
Moore Oil, Inc. You expect it to pay a $2 dividend in
one year, and you believe that you can sell the stock
for $14 at that time. If you require a return of 20% on
investments of this risk, what is the maximum you
would be willing to pay?
3-21
Expected Return
Expected Return - The percentage yield that an
investor forecasts from a specific investment
over a set period of time. Sometimes called
the holding period return (HPR).
^D1 P1 P0
Expected Return r
P0
3-22
Expected Return
^ D1 P1 P0
Expected Return r
P0 P0
3-23
Intrinsic value at t=1 for 1
period holding
What determine the stock price at t=1?
Those are expected dividend and expected stock
price at t=2, (D2 and P2)
The value of the stock at t=1 is the present value of
expected dividend (D2) and expected price (P2) in 2
year, discounted at required rate on the stock.
^ D2 P2
P1
(1 rs ) 1
(1 rs )1
3-24
Intrinsic value at t=0 for 2
periods
If you hold the stock for 2 period. The intrinsic value
at t=0 is the present value of expected dividend at
t=1 (D1), expected dividend at t=2 (D2), and the
expected stock price at t=2 (P2).
^ D1 D2 P2
P0
(1 r )1
(1 r ) 2
(1 r ) 2
3-25
Stock valuation
Two-Period Example
Now, what if you decide to hold the stock for two
years? In addition to the dividend in one year,
you expect a dividend of $2.10 in two years and a
stock price of $14.70 at the end of year 2. Now
how much would you be willing to pay?
3-26
Stock valuation
Three-Period Example
Finally, what if you decide to hold the stock for
three years? In addition to the dividends at the
end of years 1 and 2, you expect to receive a
dividend of $2.205 at the end of year 3 and the
stock price is expected to be $15.435. Now how
much would you be willing to pay?
3-28
Dividend discount model
Dividend Discount Model - Computation of
today’s stock price which states that share
value equals the present value of all expected
future dividends.
^ D1 D2 D H PH
P0 ...
(1 rs ) 1
(1 rs ) 2
(1 rs ) H
^ D1 D2 D3 D
P0 ...
(1 rs ) (1 rs )
1 2
(1 rs ) 3
(1 rs )
3-30
Estimating Dividends:
Special Cases
Constant dividend
The firm will pay a constant dividend forever
This is like preferred stock
The price is computed using the perpetuity formula
Constant dividend growth
The firm will increase the dividend by a constant percent
every period
The price is computed using the growing perpetuity model
Supernormal growth
Dividend growth is not consistent initially, but settles
down to constant growth eventually
The price is computed using a multistage model
3-31
Zero Growth
If we forecast no growth, and plan to hold
out stock indefinitely, we will then value the
stock as a PERPETUITY.
^ D1 EPS1
Perpetuity P 0 or
rs rs
3-32
Zero Growth
Suppose stock is expected to pay a $0.50 dividend
every quarter and the required return is 10% with
quarterly compounding. What is the price?
3-33
Constant growth stock
A stock whose dividends are expected to
grow forever at a constant rate, g.
D1 = D0 (1+g)1
D2 = D0 (1+g)2
Dt = D0 (1+g)t
Dt
0.25 PVD t
( 1 r )t
P0 PVD t
0 Years (t)
3-35
What happens if g > rs?
If g > rs, the constant growth formula
leads to a negative stock price, which
does not make sense.
The constant growth model can only be
used if:
rs > g
g is expected to be constant forever
3-36
DGM – Example 1
Suppose Big D, Inc., just paid a dividend of
$0.50 per share. It is expected to increase its
dividend by 2% per year. If the market
requires a return of 15% on assets of this
risk, how much should the stock be selling
for?
P0= .50(1+.02) / (.15 - .02) = $3.92
3-37
DGM – Example 2
Suppose TB Pirates, Inc., is expected to pay a
$2 dividend in one year. If the dividend is
expected to grow at 5% per year and the
required return is 20%, what is the price?
P0 = 2 / (0.2 - 0.05) = $13.33
3-38
Stock Price Sensitivity to
Dividend Growth, g
250
D1 = $2; r = 20%
200
Stock Price
150
100
50
0
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2
Growth Rate
3-398-39
Stock Price Sensitivity to
Required Return, r
250
D1 = $2; g = 5%
200
Stock Price
150
100
50
0
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3
Required return
3-40
Example 3 Gordon Growth
Company - I
Gordon Growth Company is expected to pay
a dividend of $4 next period, and dividends
are expected to grow at 6% per year. The
required return is 16%.
What is the intrinsic value today?
P0= 4 / (0.16 - 0.06) = $40
Remember that we already have the dividend
expected next year, so we don’t multiply the
dividend by 1+g
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Example 3 – Gordon Growth
Company - II
3-428-42
Finding the Required Return -
Example
Suppose a firm’s stock is selling for $10.50.
It just paid a $1 dividend, and dividends
are expected to grow at 5% per year.
What is the required return?
rs = [1(1.05)/10.50] + .05 = 15%
What is the dividend yield?
1(1.05) / 10.50 = 10%
What is the capital gains yield?
g =5%
3-43
Nonconstant Growth
Valuing Non-Constant Growth
^ D1 D2 DH PH
P0 ...
(1 rs ) (1 rs )
1 2
(1 rs ) H
(1 rs ) H
3-44
Nonconstant Growth
Problem Statement
Suppose a firm is expected to increase
dividends by 20% in one year and by 15%
in two years. After that, dividends will
increase at a rate of 5% per year
indefinitely. If the last dividend was $1
and the required return is 20%, what is
the price of the stock?
Remember that we have to find the PV of
all expected future dividends.
3-458-45
Nonconstant Growth
Example Solution
Compute the dividends until growth levels off
D1 = 1(1.2) = $1.20
D2 = 1.20(1.15) = $1.38
D3 = 1.38(1.05) = $1.449
Find the expected future price
P2= D3 / (rs – g) = 1.449 / (0.2 - 0.05) = 9.66
Find the present value of the expected future cash
flows
P0 = 1.20 / (1.2) + (1.38 + 9.66) / (1.2)2 = 8.67
3-46
Break down stock’s value
If a firm elects to pay a lower dividend, and reinvest the
funds, the stock price may increase because future
dividends may be higher. The price and dividend growth
rate depends on Plowback ratio (retention ratio) and Return
on Equity
• Payout Ratio: Fraction of earnings paid out as
dividends
• Plowback Ratio (retention ratio): Fraction of earnings
retained by the firm
3-47
Break down stock’s value
Growth can be derived from applying the return
on equity to the percentage of earnings plowed
back into operations.
g = return on equity X plowback ratio
g is also called Sustainable Growth Rate: Steady
rate at which firm can grow with no external equity
needed and unchanged capital structure.
3-48
Break down stock’s value-
Example
Our company forecasts to pay a $5.00
dividend next year, which represents
100% of its earnings. This will provide
investors with a 12% expected return.
Instead, we decide to plowback 40% of
the earnings at the firm’s current return
on equity of 20%. What is the value of
the stock before and after the plowback
decision?
3-49
Example -continued
No Growth With Growth
g .20.40 .08
5
P0 $41.67 3
.12 P0 $75.00
.12 .08
3-50
Example -continued
If the company did not plow back some earnings, the
stock price would remain at $41.67. With the
plowback, the price rose to $75.00.
3-51
Quiz
Assume that Bon Temps has a beta coefficient of 1.2, that the risk-
free rate (the yield on T-bonds) is 7%, and that the required rate
of return on the market is 12%.
What is Bon Temps’s required rate of return?
Assume that Bon Temps is a constant growth company whose
last dividend (D0, which was paid yesterday) was $2.00 and
whose dividend is expected to grow indefinitely at a 6% rate.
(1) What is the firm’s expected dividend stream over the next 3
years?
(2) What is its current stock price?
(3) What is the stock’s expected value 1 year from now?
(4) What are the expected dividend yield, capital gains yield, and
total return during the first year?
3-52
Quiz
Now assume that the stock is currently selling at
$30.29. What is its expected rate of return?
What would the stock price be if its dividends were
expected to have zero growth?
Now assume that Bon Temps is expected to
experience nonconstant growth of 30% for the next
3 years, then return to its long-run constant growth
rate of 6%. What is the stock’s value under these
conditions? What are its expected dividend and
capital gains yields in Year 1? Year 4?
3-53
Quiz
Suppose Bon Temps is expected to experience zero
growth during the first 3 years and then resume its
steady-state growth of 6% in the fourth year. What
would be its value then? What would be its expected
dividend and capital gains yields in Year 1? in Year 4?
Finally, assume that Bon Temps’s earnings and
dividends are expected to decline at a constant rate
of 6% per year, that is, g ¼ –6%. Why would
anyone be willing to buy such a stock, and at what
price should it sell? What would be its dividend and
capital gains yields in each year?
3-54
If rRF = 7%, rM = 12%, and b = 1.2,
what is the required rate of return on
the firm’s stock?
Use the SML to calculate the required
rate of return (rs):
3-55
If D0 = $2 and g is a constant 6%,
find the expected dividend stream for
the next 3 years, and their PVs.
0 1 2 3
g = 6%
3-56
What is the stock’s intrinsic value?
Using the constant growth model:
ˆP D1 $2.12
0
rs - g 0.13 - 0.06
$2.12
0.07
$30.29
3-57
What is the expected market price
of the stock, one year from now?
D1 will have been paid out already. So,
P1 is the present value (as of year 1) of
D2, D3, D4, etc.
^ D2 $2.247
P1
rs - g 0.13 - 0.06
$32.10
3-59
What would the expected price
today be, if g = 0?
The dividend stream would be a
perpetuity.
0 1 2 3
rs = 13%
...
2.00 2.00 2.00
^ PMT $2.00
P0 $15.38
r 0.13
3-60
Supernormal growth:
What if g = 30% for 3 years before
achieving long-run growth of 6%?
Can no longer use just the constant growth
model to find stock value.
However, the growth does become
constant after 3 years.
3-61
Valuing common stock with
nonconstant growth
0 r = 13% 1 2 3 4
s
...
g = 30% g = 30% g = 30% g = 6%
D0 = 2.00 2.600 3.380 4.394 4.658
2.301
2.647
3.045
$ 4.658
46.114 P3 $66.54
^ 0.13 0.06
54.107 = P0
3-62
Find expected dividend and capital gains
yields during the first and fourth years.
Dividend yield (first year)
= $2.60 / $54.11 = 4.81%
Capital gains yield (first year)
= 13.00% - 4.81% = 8.19%
During nonconstant growth, dividend yield
and capital gains yield are not constant,
and capital gains yield ≠ g.
After t = 3, the stock has constant growth
and dividend yield = 7%, while capital
gains yield = 6%.
3-63
Nonconstant growth:
What if g = 0% for 3 years before long-
run growth of 6%?
0 r = 13% 1 2 3 4
s
...
g = 0% g = 0% g = 0% g = 6%
D0 = 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.12
1.77
1.57
1.39
$ 2.12
20.99 P3 $30.29
^ 0.13 0.06
25.72 = P0
3-64
Find expected dividend and capital gains
yields during the first and fourth years.
3-65
If the stock was expected to have
negative growth (g = -6%), would anyone
buy the stock, and what is its value?
^ D1 D0 ( 1 g )
P0
rs - g rs - g
$2.00 (0.94) $1.88
$9.89
0.13 - (-0.06) 0.19
3-66
Find expected annual dividend and
capital gains yields.
Capital gains yield
= g = -6.00%
Dividend yield
= 13.00% - (-6.00%) = 19.00%
3-68
Corporate value model
Also called the free cash flow method.
Suggests the value of the entire firm
equals the present value of the firm’s
free cash flows.
Remember, free cash flow is the firm’s
after-tax operating income less the net
capital investment
FCF = NOPAT – Net capital investment
3-69
Applying the corporate value model
FCFt
V
t 1 (1 WACC) t
3-72
Constant growth FCF
Assume FCFs grow at a steady rate
forever
FCFt
V 1 WACC
t 1
t
FCF0 (1 g ) t
t 1 1 WACC t
3-73
Constant growth formula
FCF1
V
WACC g
FCF0 (1 g )
WACC g
3-74
Corporate value model – Quiz
The Bon Temps Company, a total equity financed employment
agency that supplies word processor operators and computer
programmers to businesses with temporarily heavy workloads.
Now suppose Bon Temps embarked on an aggressive expansion
that requires additional capital. Management decided to finance
the expansion by borrowing $40 million and by halting dividend
payments to increase retained earnings. Its WACC is now 10%,
and the projected free cash flows for the next 3 years are –$5
million, $10 million, and $20 million. After Year 3, free cash flow
is projected to grow at a constant 6%. What is Bon Temps’s
total value? If it has 10 million shares of stock and $40 million
of debt and preferred stock combined, what is the price per
share?
3-75
Nonconstant Growth
(More…)
3-76
The weighted average cost of capital,
rc, is 10%.
The company has 10 million shares of
stock.
3-77
Horizon Value
Free cash flows are forecast for three
years in this example, so the forecast
horizon is three years.
Growth in free cash flows is not
constant during the forecast,so we can’t
use the constant growth formula to find
the value of operations at time 0.
3-78
Horizon Value (Cont.)
Growth is constant after the horizon (3
years), so we can modify the constant
growth formula to find the value of all
free cash flows beyond the horizon,
discounted back to the horizon.
3-79
Horizon Value Formula
FCFt (1 g )
HV V at time t
WACC g
Horizon value is also called terminal
value, or continuing value.
3-80
Find the value of operations by discounting
the free cash flows at the cost of capital.
0 r =10% 1 2 3 4
c
g = 6%
FCF= -5.00 10.00 20.00 21.2
-4.545
8.264
15.026
$21.2
398.197 Vop at 3
$530.
0 .10 0.06
416.942 = V
3-81
Find the price per share of common
stock.
3-82
Firm multiples method
Analysts often use the following multiples
to value stocks.
P/E
P / CF
P / Sales
EXAMPLE: Based on comparable firms,
estimate the appropriate P/E. Multiply this
by expected earnings to back out an
estimate of the stock price.
3-83
Market equilibrium
3-84
What is market equilibrium?
In equilibrium, stock prices are stable and
there is no general tendency for people to
buy versus to sell.
In equilibrium, two conditions hold:
The current market stock price equals its
^
intrinsic value (P0 = P0).
Expected returns must equal required returns.
^ D1
rs g rs rRF (rM rRF )b
P0
3-85
Market equilibrium
Expected returns are determined by
estimating dividends and expected
capital gains.
Required returns are determined by
estimating risk and applying the CAPM.
3-86
How is market equilibrium
established?
If price is below intrinsic value …
The current price (P0) is “too low” and
offers a bargain.
Buy orders will be greater than sell
orders.
P0 will be bid up until expected return
equals required return.
3-87
How are the equilibrium
values determined?
Are the equilibrium intrinsic value and
expected return estimated by
managers or are they determined by
something else?
Equilibrium levels are based on the
market’s estimate of intrinsic value and
the market’s required rate of return, which
are both dependent upon the attitudes of
the marginal investor.
3-88
Preferred Stock Valuation
3-89
Preferred stock
Hybrid security.
Like bonds, preferred stockholders
receive a fixed dividend that must be
paid before dividends are paid to
common stockholders.
However, companies can omit
preferred dividend payments without
fear of pushing the firm into
bankruptcy.
3-90
If preferred stock with an annual
dividend of $5 sells for $50, what is the
preferred stock’s expected return?
Vp = D / rp
$50 = $5 / rp
^r = $5 / $50
p
= 0.10 = 10%
3-91
Bond Valuation
3-92
Key Features of a Bond
Bond - evidence of debt issued by a corporation or a
governmental body. A bond represents a loan made by
investors to the issuer. In return for his/her money, the
investor receives a legal claim on future cash flows of the
borrower. The issuer promises to:
Make regular coupon payments every period until the bond
matures, and
Pay the face/par/maturity value of the bond when it
matures.
Default - since the abovementioned promises are
contractual obligations, an issuer who fails to keep them is
subject to legal action on behalf of the lenders
(bondholders). 3-93
Key Features of a Bond
Par value – face amount of the bond, which
is paid at maturity (assume $1,000).
Coupon interest rate – stated interest rate
(generally fixed) paid by the issuer. Multiply by par
value to get dollar payment of interest.
Maturity date – years until the bond must be
repaid.
Issue date – when the bond was issued.
Yield to maturity - rate of return earned on
a bond held until maturity (also called the
“promised yield”).
3-94
The value of financial assets
0 1 2 n
r% ...
Value CF1 CF2 CFn
3-95
What is the opportunity cost of
debt capital?
3-96
What’s the value of a 10-year, 10%
coupon bond if rd = 10%?
0 1 2 10
10%
...
V=? 100 100 100 + 1,000
Time 0 1 2 3 4 5
Coupons $80 $80 $80 $80 $80
Face Value $ 1000
Market Price $____
3-98
Using a financial calculator to
value a bond
This bond has a $1,000 lump sum (the par value)
due at maturity (t = 10), and annual $100 coupon
payments beginning at t = 1 and continuing through
t = 10, the price of the bond can be found by solving
for the PV of these cash flows.
3-99
The same company also has 10-year
bonds outstanding with the same risk but
a 13% annual coupon rate
This bond has an annual coupon payment of $130.
Since the risk is the same the bond has the same
yield to maturity as the previous bond (10%). In this
case the bond sells at a premium because the
coupon rate exceeds the yield to maturity.
3-100
The same company also has 10-year
bonds outstanding with the same risk but
a 7% annual coupon rate
This bond has an annual coupon payment of $70.
Since the risk is the same the bond has the same
yield to maturity as the previous bonds (10%). In
this case, the bond sells at a discount because the
coupon rate is less than the yield to maturity.
INPUTS 10 10 70 1000
N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT -815.66
3-101