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MM: Another David Vs Goliath Story?: Merrymart Consumer Corp
MM: Another David Vs Goliath Story?: Merrymart Consumer Corp
Relying on franchise model to grow store network count. MM plans to expand their
3-in-1 format stores through franchising, given its potential for scalability. The rollout
of these 3-in-1 stores would play a significant role in allowing MM to reach its goal of
having 1,200 stores by 2030. Despite the delays in construction and store openings from
the Luzon-wide enhanced community quarantine (ECQ), the company is maintaining its
goal of opening 100 branches by 4Q21. They are also targeting 600 branches by 2025 and
1,200 branches by 2030, where 1,000 branches are expected to be small format stores and
majority of those are expected to be franchised branches.
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FIELD NOTES I MM: ANOTHER DAVISD VS. GOLIATH STORY?
Company Background
35% 100%
100%
MerryMart Grocery
Centers Inc.
source: MerryMart
The retail company has three store formats in operation: 1) MerryMart Grocery, a full size
supermarket that offers a wide variety of food and non-food products, a broad selection
of personal care products, and a pharmaceutical section with a size of 1,500sqm; 2)
MerryMart Market, a medium format specialized grocery that offers a larger selection
of premium and imported grocery items and includes a large fresh selection of fruit,
vegetables, and seafood products with a size of 600sqm; and 3) MerryMart Store, a small
format household essentials store with a 3-in-1 concept which combines a mini-grocery,
personal care shop, and pharmacy into one shop with a size of 150sqm.
As of May 15, 2020, the company had 7 MerryMart branches with 14 branches under
various stages of construction. Management intends to open several branches as soon
as the government allows construction to resume. Despite the delays in construction
and store openings from the Luzon-wide enhanced community quarantine (ECQ), the
company is maintaining its goal of opening 100 branches by 4Q21. The company’s
2030 vision is to have a total of 1,200 MerryMart branches composed of 200 MerryMart
Groceries and Markets and 1,000 MerryMart Stores in operations nationwide with a
system-wide sales of Php120Bil.
source: MerryMart
Stock Symbol MM
Offer Price Php1.0/sh
Market Cap Php7,594.9Mil
Total Shares Offered
Primary 1,595Mil
Gross Proceeds Php1,594.9Mil
Net Proceeds Php1,471.8Mil
Shares Outstanding Post IPO 7,595Mil
Offer Period May 27 - June 5, 2020
Listing Date June 15, 2020
source: MerryMart
Approximately 70% of the net proceeds from the IPO or Php1.031Bil will be used to fund
the MM Group’s store network expansion plan. The group plans to open 100 stores by
4Q21, of which around 25 stores will be rolled out using the net proceeds of the IPO.
Out of the Php1,030.8Mil, Php924.7Mil will be used for capital expenditures while the
remaining will be allotted for their initial working capital.
Meanwhile, approximately 15% of the net proceeds will be used to fund capital expenditures
for the MM Group’s distribution centers. MM plans to open three distribution centers in
the next 12 months – one in Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. The remaining 15% of the net
proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes.
Est. Timing of
Use of Proceeds Est. Amount (Php) Est. Amount (%)
Disbursement
Store Network Expansion Php1,030.8Mil 70% 2Q20 to 4Q21
Capital Expenditures Php924.7Mil
Initial Working Capital Php106.1Mil
Investments in Distribution Centers Php220.9Mil 15% 2Q20 to 4Q21
General Corporate Purposes Php220.1Mil 15% 2Q20 to 4Q21
Total Php1,471.8Mil 100%
source: MerryMart
MerryMart falls under the supermarket category, where supermarkets are defined as
retail outlets selling groceries with a net selling space of 400 to 2,500 sqm. According
to Euromonitor, the supermarket/hypermarket/discounter club category has grown at a
consistent CAGR of 8.57% in the last six years and is expected to continue growing at 6.8%
from 2019 to 2024. The top players in the industry, Puregold Price Club Inc. (PGOLD), SM
Retail (SM), and Robinsons Retail Holdings Inc. (RRHI), have been consistently growing
their store network over the years by expanding company-owned stores and successfully
acquiring traditional supermarket brands. As of end-2019, 36.4% were owned by the top
three industry players, up from 27.8% in 2014.
source: EuroMonitor
100%
90%
80%
70% Others
67.6% 66.9% 63.6% Brands
72.2% 70.8% 69.0%
60%
50%
Top 3
40%
Chained
30% Brands
20% 36.4%
29.2% 31.0% 32.4% 33.1%
27.8%
10%
0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
source: EuroMonitor
Nevertheless, out of the 2,640 outlets in the country as of end 2019, 67.2% were owned
by chained supermarket brands (those with at least 10 stores). Only 32.8% were owned by
traditional supermarket operators, down from 44.1% in 2014 as most of these traditional
supermarkets were acquired by chained supermarket operators which have stronger
branding and enjoy economies of scale.
With still a third of the total outlets owned by traditional supermarket operators, there’s
an opportunity for a new grocery chain operator to penetrate the market by converting
traditional supermarkets into franchised supermarkets to take advantage of branding
and scale benefits of chained supermarkets. As of end-2019, there were 1,121 traditional
supermarket outlets the MM could potentially convert into MM groceries through a
franchise model.
100%
90%
32.8%
80% 41.4% 41.4% 39.0% 37.7%
44.1%
70% Traditional
Supermarkets
60%
50%
Chained
40% Supermarkets
67.2%
30% 58.6% 58.6% 61.0% 62.3%
55.9%
20%
10%
0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
source: EuroMonitor
Meanwhile, MerryMart Stores are intended to penetrate the Convenience Store and
Drugstore/Pharmacy Retailer industries, given the stores’ unique 3-in-1 household
essentials concept. According to Euromonitor, the convenience store industry has
increased by a CAGR of 19.02% over the last six years. The convenience store industry is
expected to continue growing by 20.5% during the forecast period.
As of end-2019, the top 3 convenience store players: 7-Eleven, Ministop, and Alfamart,
controlled 92.8% of the market based on retail value. Although the competitive environment
of the convenience store industry is not as attractive given the dominant position of the
big three players, the industry shows promising opportunities for new entrants given its
robust growth outlook. Convenience stores also remain to be a destination of choice for
consumers looking for convenient meal solutions and daily necessities. This should allow
new convenience store entrants to compete against major chains.
source: MerryMart
The MM Group believes that there is an opportunity for growth given the declining
market share of non-chained supermarkets. From 2014 to 2019, 10.4% of PGOLD’s store
openings were through acquisitions of other supermarkets. Meanwhile, RRHI’s acquisition
of supermarkets reached 63.7% of its total store openings from 2014 to 2019.
Unlike PGOLD and RRHI, the MM Group’s plan is to expand its full-size supermarket
network via franchising through the conversion of traditional supermarkets into
MerryMart Grocery stores. This will allow traditional supermarket owners to continue
operating and managing their business while improving their ability to compete against
chained supermarket operators. Once the traditional supermarket operator agrees to
convert into a MerryMart grocery store, they will enjoy the same advantages as chained
supermarkets such as branding, economies of scale, and better product distribution.
Exhibit 9: 2014 - 2019 Store Network Growth of the Top 3 Supermarket Chains
180
160
140
120
100
Acquisitions
80 Organic
60
40
20
0
Puregold SM Retail Robinsons Retail
source: EuroMonitor
Although most of the convenience store segment has been captured by top players in
the industry, the MM Group believes that their one-stop shop, which has a mini-grocery,
personal care shop, and pharmacy will be able to create a niche that can attract customers
with multiple consumer needs. MM stores will differ from typical convenience stores
because of its higher margin pharmacy and beauty products. Consumers will be able to
come in and buy necessities such as groceries, but may also leave the store purchasing
other discretionary items.
In addition to boosting sales, the 3 in 1 concept should also result in higher GPM given
that pure convenience stores typically operate with GPM less than 10% while drug
stores and specialty stores have much higher GPM of up to 20% and 28% respectively.
Assuming that sales pharmacy and personal care items reach 50% of MM’s net sales,
MM stores’ GPM could easily be 50% higher than typical convenience stores.
MM plans to expand their 3-in-1 format stores through franchising, given its potential
for scalability. MM stores, which range from 150-300 sqm, can easily be operated by
franchisees given the limited number of personnel required and a significant reduction
in SKUs carried compared to groceries. Franchising a MerryMart Store will cost around
Php10Mil to Php15Mil, with a franchise fee of Php1.2Mil plus VAT and royalty fees,
based on 2% of gross sales.
The rollout of MerryMart Stores is expected to be faster than the other two store
formats. Given the smaller area of the 3-in-1 stores, it will take approximately 60 days to
complete one store. Moreover, the franchise model of these small format stores should
ramp up store network. The rollout of these 3-in-1 stores would play a significant role
in allowing MM to reach its goal of having 1,200 stores by 2030.
As of May 15, 2020, the Group is planning to open 14 more branches, composed of
10 MerryMart Grocery outlets, 1 MM Market branch, and 3 MM Stores as soon as the
government lifts restrictions under the COVID-19 induced lock downs. They are also
targeting 600 branches by 2025 and 1,200 branches by 2030, where 1,000 branches are
expected to be small format stores and majority of those are expected to be franchised
branches.
source: MerryMart
MM Grocery MM Store
Royalty Fee 1% of Gross Sales 2% of Gross Sales
Franchise Fee Php1.95Mil + VAT Php1.2Mil + VAT
Term N/A 10 years
Store Cost N/A Php10Mil to Php15Mil
Admin Fee N/A 0.5% of Gross Sales
source: MerryMart
MM believes that traditional supermarket owners will continue to lose market share to top
players in the industry over time. This will lead to lower volume for regional distributors
of supermarket products since chained supermarket operators are supplied directly by
the manufacturers. The remaining traditional supermarkets would likely experience major
supply chain issues due to the decline in distributors. Distributors will also be forced to
increase their prices to compensate for their lower sales volume.
Company Financials
From 2017 to 2019, MM’s net income increased by a CAGR of 18.3%. This was mainly
driven by the 19.5% CAGR of total revenues as the company generated a same store sales
growth (SSSG) of 19.7% and 13.0% in 2018 and 2019, respectively. However, FY19 profits
declined by 31.0% y/y to Php28.0Mil due to higher operating and interest expenses from
opening an MM Grocery store during the year.
FY19 operating margin likewise contracted by 90bps to 1.8% from 2.7% from higher
expenses while gross profit margin expanded by 130bps to 5.7% from a slower year-on-
year increase in cost of sales than revenues. According to management, sale of goods
revenue from the Injap Supermart located in Burgos Roxas City grew the fastest at 19.8%
y/y to Php1.6Bil.
Meanwhile, the MerryMart Grocery located in DoubleDragon Plaza contributed the least
to FY19 revenues since they only started operating in May 2019. Moving forward, we
would need to see growth in the company’s newly opened MM grocery as this would
likely dictate the company’s growth trajectory. Should the new stores perform well, it
would be easier to MM to attract franchises, and make the company’s rapid growth more
attainable.
Despite MM’s aggressive expansion plan, leverage should be manageable given its plan
of growing through franchising. As such, capex will be limited to company owned stores.
The franchising model also gives MM additional source of revenues, such as franchise fees
and percent of sales royalties, which would help MM fund the construction of company
owned stores.
source: MerryMart
Valuations
At its offer price of Php1.00/sh, MM will be trading at 271x 2019 P/E which is a significant
premium relative to the 19.9x 2020E average P/E of MM’s comparables. Price to book
value ratio will also be high at 18.7x largely due to the dilution caused by the issuance
of 6 billion shares at Php0.05/sh. In order for MM to justify its current valuation, the
company will need to book a net income of Php380Mil which is significantly higher than
its net income of Php28Mil in 2019.
To justify its IPO valuation, MM needs to bank on franchisee fees to generate higher net
income in the next few years, while continuing the process of converting large groceries
and opening new MM convenience stores. Recall that MM would book fees of Php1.2Mil
for MM stores and almost Php2Mil for the conversion of large groceries.
Over the next 2- 3 years, MM could book more than Php400Mil in recurring profits should
it successfully convert large groceries while being on schedule with the rollout of MM
stores. Note that for large groceries with net sales of Php1Bil, MM would book Php10Mil
on royalty revenues alone. Recall that there are still in excess of 1,100 large non-chain
groceries that MM could potentially target and convert to MM stores.
COVID-19 update
To address and contain the rising number of coronavirus cases in the Philippines,
President Rodrigo Duterte declared a Luzon-wide ECQ from March 17 to May 15. Malls
and other non-essential stores were temporarily closed while public transportation and
work in the private sector were suspended to implement a strict home quarantine and
limit outside movement. Nevertheless, all 7 MerryMart branches remained operational
to provide basic consumer goods to the Filipino community during the ECQ. According
to management, they only experienced supply chain disruptions during the first two to
three weeks of the ECQ as people were stocking up on masks and alcohol. MM did not
incur any layoffs despite the pandemic because sales of their stores were 30-40% higher
than pre-ECQ sales.
During the ECQ, the MM Group’s ramp up of store expansion was delayed as construction
activities were suspended. Management was supposed to open 6 stores in April and May
2020. Nonetheless, these 6 branches are expected to open in Metro Manila by June
2020 as the government eases its ECQ to a modified enhanced community quarantine
(MECQ) allowing construction activities. In addition, construction of the MM branches
in provincial areas that declared general community quarantine (GCQ) have already
resumed. However, management mentioned that provincial branches will only open once
local flights have resumed.
Risks
Execution Risk
The MM Group faces the risk of poorly executing its growth strategy. As discussed earlier,
MM’s valuation is very expensive based on its 2019 earnings as it is already pricing in
successful store network expansion strategy to spur growth. Delays in new store openings
or franchise expansions can potentially harm the company’s future earnings. As discussed
earlier, MM has a very ambitious goal of opening 1,200 stores by 2030, up from only 3
stores as of end 2019.
Competition Risk
Given that the MM Group belongs to the minority non-chained supermarket brand,
the group will have to compete against the top players in the industry. Since these top
players have more established brands and market presence than MerryMart, the MM
Group might encounter difficulties in gaining market share.
During the Luzon-wide ECQ, construction of stores was suspended while ready to open
stores had their openings pushed back to June. Aside from this, the opening of MM
provincial stores will rely on the resumption of local flights. Although the construction
of these branches has already resumed, as of now, there are still no news on when
local flights will continue. The country is also at risk of experiencing a second wave of
coronavirus infections as guidelines on the lockdown and work conditions ease. The
increase in coronavirus cases may lead to another ECQ with stricter guidelines causing
more delays in store network expansion especially in high-risk places such as Metro
Manila.
KEY RATIOS
2017 2018 2019
ROE 50.5% 50.6% 25.9%
EBITDA Margin 1.7% 2.8% 2.6%
Net Profit Margin 1.1% 1.9% 1.1%
CA/CL (X) 119.9% 118.8% 133.3%
D/E Ratio (X) 0.0 0.0 1.4
A/E Ratio (X) 5.8 4.2 8.4
I MP OR TA NT R AT ING DEFINITIONS
BUY
Stocks that have a BUY rating have attractive fundamentals and valuations based on our analysis. We expect the share price to outperform the market in the
next six to 12 months.
HOLD
Stocks that have a HOLD rating have either 1) attractive fundamentals but expensive valuations 2) attractive valuations but near-term earnings outlook might
be poor or vulnerable to numerous risks. Given the said factors, the share price of the stock may perform merely in line or underperform in the market in the
next six to twelve months.
SELL
We dislike both the valuations and fundamentals of stocks with a SELL rating. We expect the share price to underperform in the next six to12 months.
I MP OR TA NT DISC L AIM ER
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subject to change without prior notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of
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