DETERMINATION OF CRITICAL PATH

For critical path we look the connection of the flow activities by referring to Expected time

Top+ 4 Tml+Tpe
Exp. Time =
6

1. A C F H= 2+2+3+2 = 9 weeks

2. A C E G H = 2+2+4+5+2= 15weeks

3. B D G H = 3+4+5+2= 14 weeks

DETERMINATION OF SCHEDULE AND SLACK TIME

Activity ES EF LS LF Slack ( Ls- Es) On

critical
path
A 0 2 0 2 0 yes
B 0 3 1 4 1 no
C 2 4 2 4 0 yes
D 3 7 4 8 1 no
E 4 8 4 8 0 yes
F 4 7 10 13 6 no
G 8 13 8 13 0 yes
H 13 13 13 15 0 yes

Slack is the length of time an activity can be delayed without delaying the whole project( free
time, that each activity has).

Determination of variance and probability of the project

Tpe−Top 2
Variance = ( ¿ and standard deviation is the root square of variance
6

Ŏ=√ variance . If the activity times are statistically independent, the project variance is computed
by summing the variances of the critical activities (A C E G H).
 Tpe−Top 2
Project Variance = ( ¿ of the activities which are on critical path
6

Activities Top Tpe Tpe−Top 2

Var =( ¿
6
A 3 1 ( (3-1)/6)2 = 4/36
C 2 6 ( ( 3-1)/6 )2 = 4/36
E 1 7 ( (7-1)/6)2 = 36/36
G 3 11 ( ( 11-3)/6)2 = 64/36
H 1 3 ( (3-1)/6)2 = 4/36

4 4 36 64 4 112
∑ var=¿ 36 + 36 + 36 ¿+ 36 + 36 = 36 =3.311
Standard deviation =√ var =¿ ¿ √ 3.311=1.76

Such information helps to answer questions regarding the probability of finishing project time.

Example:

Find the probability that project will be finished before 16 weeks deadline, we need to determine
the appropriate are under the normal curve. The standard normal equation can be applied as
follow:

Due date−expected dateof cmpletion 16−15

Z= = = 0.57
standard deviation 1.76

Where Z is the number of standard deviation the due date or target date lie from the mean or
expected date. Referring to the normal distribution table shows that there is a 71.6% chance that
air filter system can put in place 16 weeks or less as shown below;

Expected time 0.57 standard deviation

15 weeks

16 weeks Time

The probability T= 16 Weeks is 71.6%

Interpretation

In the controlling of the process of monitoring and controlling of the project PERT has been able
to provide fair construction with several valuable pieces of management information, which
include;

1. The projects expected completion date is 15 weeks.

2. There is 71.6% chance that equipment will be placed within 16 weeks deadline.
PERT can easily to find the probability of finishing by any date Fair construction is
interested in.
3. Five activities A C E G H are on critical path. If any one of them is delayed from any
person, the entire project will be delayed.
4. Three activities B D F, are not critical but have got some slack time built in.this means
that management can borrow from their resources if needed, possibly to speed up the
entire project.
5. It is possible to get detailed information of activity starting and ending date.