ARYAN COLLEGE

LAST YEARS SCANNER BBA-II BUSINESS STATISTICS

Unit-I- Index number,Times Series,Business Forecasting

1. (a) Calculate weighted index number for 2018 Weighted Aggregative Method & Weighted Average of Relative
Method from the following table: (2018)
Items Quantity Price in 2017 Price in 2018
Bricks 10 units 100 161
Timber 7 units 200 210
Boards 15 units 50 60
Sand 9 units 20 30
Cement 10 units 10 14

(b)Derive the analytical relationship between Laspeyer’s & Paasche’s price Index numbers. Under what
circumstances are the two index numbers equal?
2. (a) Explain the utility of business forecasting. (2018)
(b)Explain the Input-Output analysis method of Business Forecasting.
3. (a) From the data given below , calculate weighted Index numbers by (i) Aggregative Expenditure Method (ii)
Average of Price Relative Method: (2017)
Articles Price in Base year Price in Current year Expenditure in base
A 20 25 50
B 40 60 240
C 50 70 420
D 30 45 200
(b) What do you mean by ‘splicing of Index Number’? Explain with example. (2017)
4. What is ‘Time Series’? What are the components of ‘Time Series’? Explain the various methods of estimating the
secular trend of Time series. (2017)
5. Write explanatory notes on the following: (2016 – S)
a) Time Reversal Test
b) Splicing of Index Numbers
c) Base Shifting
d) Price Relatives
e) Chain Base Index Numbers
6. Compute the trend value by the method of least squares from the following data: (2016 – S)
Year No. of Sheeps (in
lakh)

200 56
6

200 55
7

200 51
8

200 47
9

201 42
0

201 38
1

201 35
2

201 32
3

Also find the number of Sheeps for the year 2014.

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 7. What do you understand by ‘Forecasting’? Explain the various methods used for forecasting in brief. (2016 – S)
8. Construct Fisher’s ideal. Index number from the following data and show that it satisfies the Time Reversal Test
and Factor Reversal Test. (2016)
Item 2011 2012
Quantity Total Expenditure Price Total Expenditure
A 8 16 4 24
B 10 50 6 30
C 14 56 5 50
D 19 38 2 26

9. Following data relate to production of a factory in (‘000) tonnes: (2016)

Year Production(in thousands)
2006 77
2007 88
2008 94
2009 85
2010 91
2011 98
2012 90
(a) Fit a straight line trend by method to least square. (b)What is monthly Increase in production? (c) Convert your
annual trend equation into a monthly trend equation.
10. Short Notes: (2016)
(a) Base shifting (b) Splicing of index number (c) Theories of business forecasting (d) Objects of business
forecasting.

11. Construct the consumer price index number for 2012 from the following data by using: (a) Aggregate Expenditure
Method (b) Family budget Method (2015)
Articles Qty Consumed in 2011 Unit Price (2011)Rs. Price (2012)Rs.
Wheat 5 Qtls. Per Qtl. 100 125
Rice 5 Qtls. Per Qtl. 200 250
Gram 1 Qtls. Per Qtl. 80 100
Arhar 3 Qtls. Per Qtl. 120 180
Ghee 5Kg. Per Kg. 8 10
Sugar 80 Kg Per Kg. 2 3
12. You are given the following data. Compute the Trend Values by Least Square Method.Also find out the profits for
the year 2014. (2015)
Financial Yr Ending Profit( In Lac of Rs.)
31st March 2006 32
31st March 2007 35
st
31 March 2008 38
31st March 2009 42
31st March 2010 47
31st March 2011 51
st
31 March 2012 55
31st March 2013 56
13. What is meant by Business Forecasting? Explain the various methods of forecasting. (2015)
14. Prepare fixed base indices(Chain Based Indices chained to 2000) from the chain base index numbers
given below. (2014)
Year Price
2001 120
2002 104
2003 108
2004 154
2005 164
2006 168
15. What is a time series? What are its main components? Explain the importance of time series analysis. (2014)
16. What is business forecasting? Explain those statistical methods that help in business forecasting. (2014)
17. From the data given below ,Calculate weighted index number by: (2013)
(a) Aggregative Expenditure method (b) Average of price relative method.
Articles Price in Base Yr Price in Current Yr Expenditure in Current Yr with
Base Yr
A 20 25 50
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 B 40 60 240
C 50 70 420
D 30 45 200
18. The following table shows the annual sales of a Company in Lakh Rupees, along with their calculated
trend values: (2013)
Years Actual sales Trend Values
2003 170 228
2004 231 239
2005 261 251
2006 267 263
2007 278 275
2008 302 287
2009 299 299
2010 298 311
2011 340 323
2012 364 334
Compute the short term fluctuations based on Additive and Multiplicative model.
19. What is business forecasting? What are the assumptions on which business forecast are made? (2013)
Unit-II- Theory of Probability

1. (a) Explain briefly the additive & multiplicative models of time series.Which of the models is more popular in
practise & why? (2018)
(b)Given the following ratio of observed data to moving averages , compute the seasonal indices: (Unit I)
Year Quarter
I II III IV
1 - - 87 92
2 105 100 90 93
3 110 105 93 100
4 115 110 - -

2. (a) Two balls are drawn from a bag containing 8 red & 7 white balls.Find the chances that: (2018)
(i) They are both red
(ii) They are both white
(iii) One is Red & other is white
(b) The probability that a man will be alive for 25 years is 3/5 and the probaboility his wife will be alive for 25yrs
is 2/3. Find the probability that:
(i) Both will be alive
(ii) Only the man will be alive
(iii) Only the wife will be alive
(iv) At least one will be alive.
3. (a) A bag contains four white and two black balls. Another bag contains two white and 5 black balls. If one ball is
drawn from each bag, what is the probability that both balls are (a) White (b) Black (c) of common colour.(2017)
(b)Out of 8 Americans and 5 Indians, in how many ways a six member committee can be formed if it should have
(a) 3 Americans and 3 Indians (b) At least 3 Indians?
4. Write short notes on the following : (2017)
(i)Mathematical expectation (ii) Baye’s Theorem (iii) Conditional Probability (iv) Mutually Exclusive Events
5. Explain and illustrate the following theories of probability: (2016 – S)
a) Addition theorem
b) Multiplication theorem
c) Mathematical expression
6. (2016 – S)
a) The dice are tossed, what is the probability that the sum shown will be 07 or 11?
b) A bag contains 4 white and 6 red balls. Two draws of 3 balls are made.

Find the probability that first draw will give all the three white balls and the second will give all the three
red balls, if the balls and the second will give all the three red balls, if the balls are replaced before the
draw.
c) A speaks the truth in 80% of cases and B in 90% of the cases. In what percentage of cases are they likely to
contradict each other in stating the same fact?
7. (2016)
(a) A doctor is to visit a patient once in a month of November. Find the probability that he visit on a date which is a
multiple of 6 or 5.

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 (b) There are 30 students in MCom Final and 50 students in MCom Previous in an university. 3 representative of
commerce association are to be selected one by one. Find the probability that they are alternatively of different
classes.
(c) A bag contains 5 white balls and 3 red balls. Second bag contains 3 white and 4 red balls and the third bag
contains 2 white and 8 red balls. 1 red ball was drawn. What is the probability that it was drawn from the third bag.
8. What do you understand by the term probability? State the addition and multiplication theorems of probability
giving suitable examples. (2016)
9. Explain and illustrate the following: (2015)
(a) Addition Theorem of Probability (b) Multiplication Theorem of Probability (c) Mathematical Expectation
10. (2015)
(a) The probability of a cricket team winning match at Kanpur is 2/5 and loosing match at Delhi is 1/7. What is the
probability of the team winning at least one match.
(b) Two dice are thrown 3 times. What is the probability that total of the pair is 10 for the first throw, 11 in 2 nd
throw and 12 in the 3rd throw?
(c) What is the probability of having 53 Mondays in a leap year
11. (2014)
(a) The probability of the profits of a company are as follows:
Profit(Rs.) Probability
10,000 0.3
20,000 0.2
25,000 0.4
40,000 0.1
What will be the mathematical expectation of the profit of the company?
(b) Define probability and explain the Addition Theorem of probability giving suitable examples
12. (2014)
i) Explain: (a) Conditional Probability (b) Mutually Exclusive Events
(ii) In a factory manufacturing fountain pens, Machine A,B & C manufacture 30%,30% & 40% of the total
production of fountain pens respectively.Of their output 4%,5% & 10% of the fountain pens are found to be
defective.If one fountain pen is selected at random,and it is found to be defective find the probability that it is
manufactured by Machine C using Baye’s Theorem Method.
13. (2013)
(a) What is the probability of getting a total of 2 or 8 or 12 on throwing a pair of dice?
(b) If two dice are thrown, what is the probability that total is obtained at least 7 from the pair?
14. Explain the difference: (2013)
(a) Simple and Compound Events (b) Independent and Dependent Events (c) Mutual Exclusive and Independent
Events

Unit-III- Probability Distribution & Sampling Distribution

1. (a) What is Normal Distribution? Point out its important properties. (2018)
(b) Fit a Binomial distribution to the following data:
X 0 1 2 3 4
f 28 62 45 10 4
2. (a) As a tailor prepared suits for a number of his customers after the preliminary trails & retrials he had to alter the
suits as follows: (2018)
No of trail after preliminary trail 0 1 2 3
No.of cases 200 75 20 5 300
-m
By applying Poisson distribution , calculate the theoretical frequencies e = 0.433
(b)State the conditions under which the binomial distribution tends to :
(i) Poisson Distribution
(ii) The Normal Distribution
3. (a) “One can know the characteristics of the population by studying only a part of it: . Comment. (2018)
(b) Critically examine the various probability sampling methods.
4. (a) Five fair coins were tossed 32 times. Calculate expected frequency using Binomial distribution method.
(b) Narrate the sailent features of Poisson distribution. (2017)
5. What is ‘statistical sampling’? Describe the various methods of sampling. (2017)
6. (a) Discuss the utility of business forecasting. (2017)
(c) Explain the steps of byusiness forecasting.
( c) Write short note on ‘Input-Output Analysis method of business forecasting.
7. (2016 – S)
a) The number of defects per unit in a sample of 330 units of manufactured product was found as follows:
No. of Defects No. of Units

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 0 214

1 92

2 20

3 03

4 01

Fit a Poisson Distribution to the data. (Given e-0.439 = 0.6447 )

b) Narrate the salient features of Normal Probability Distribution.
8. Comment briefly on the term ‘Parameter and Statistics used in a Sampling Theory’. What is meant by Sampling
Distribution of a Statistics? Define Standard Error of a Statistic. (2016 – S)
9. (2016)
(a) Mean of a random sample of 100 units is 64cms, if the standard deviation of sample is 3 cms. Set probable
limits of the mean height of the population at 95% and 99% level of confidence.
(b) In a multiple choice quiz, each question have 5 alternatives, out of them only one answer is correct. What is the
probability of 6 correct answers out of 10 questions?
(c) The average number of customers, who appear at the counter of a certain bank per minute is 2. Find the
probability that during a given minute, 3 or more customers will appear. (Given e -2 = 0.1353).
10. Short notes: (2016)
(a) Random Sampling (b) Poisson Distribution (c) Features of normal distribution.
11. (2015)
(a) In a binomial distribution if the mean is 3 and variants is 2, find the remaining constants.
(b) A factory manufacturing refills for ball pen, find on an average one defective out of 25. Refills are packed in a
packet of 100 using the Poisson distribution; calculate all the constants of the distribution.
12. Short notes: (2015)
(a) Random Sampling (b) Law of inertia of large numbers (c) Null Hypothesis (d) Characteristics of normal
distribution.
13. Describe: (a) Binomial Distribution (b) Poisson Distribution (2014)
14. List the chief properties of Normal Distribution. (2014)
15. The following table shows the distribution of 128 samples: (2013)
No.of Defective Items No.of Samples
7 1
6 7
5 23
4 30
3 35
2 19
1 6
0 7

Fit a binomial distribution to the above data, and find the expected frequencies, if the chance of the machine being
defective is ½, Find also means and variance of the fitted distribution.
16. What are the assumptions of Poisson Distribution? Explain the distribution and state its mean and variance. Show
that its mean and variance are identical. (2013)

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