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Multi Criteria Decision Analysis
Multi Criteria Decision Analysis
Multi‐Criteria Decision Analysis
Notes by Dr. Mark Knight
Professor
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Waterloo
Applying MCA: Detailed steps
1. Establish the decision context. What are the aims of the MCA, and who
are the decision makers and other key players?
2. Identify the options.
3. Identify the objectives and criteria that reflect the value associated with
the consequences of each option.
4. Describe the expected performance of each option against the criteria.
(If the analysis is to include steps 5 and 6, also ‘score’ the options, i.e.
assess the value associated with the consequences of each option.)
5. ‘Weighting’. Assign weights for each of the criteria to reflect their
relative importance to the decision.
6. Combine the weights and scores for each of the options to derive an
overall value.
7. Examine the results.
8. Conduct a sensitivity analysis of the results to changes in scores or
weights.
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Applying MCA: Detailed steps
1. Establish the decision context. What are the aims of the MCA, and who
are the decision makers and other key players?
2. Identify the options.
3. Identify the objectives and criteria that reflect the value associated with
the consequences of each option.
4. Describe the expected performance of each option against the criteria.
(If the analysis is to include steps 5 and 6, also ‘score’ the options, i.e.
assess the value associated with the consequences of each option.)
5. ‘Weighting’. Assign weights for each of the criteria to reflect their
relative importance to the decision.
6. Combine the weights and scores for each of the options to derive an
overall value.
7. Examine the results.
8. Conduct a sensitivity analysis of the results to changes in scores or
weights.
Applying MCA: Detailed steps
1. Establish the decision context. What are the aims of the MCA, and who
are the decision makers and other key players?
2. Identify the options.
3. Identify the objectives and criteria that reflect the value associated with
the consequences of each option.
4. Describe the expected performance of each option against the criteria.
(If the analysis is to include steps 5 and 6, also ‘score’ the options, i.e.
assess the value associated with the consequences of each option.)
5. ‘Weighting’. Assign weights for each of the criteria to reflect their
relative importance to the decision.
6. Combine the weights and scores for each of the options to derive an
overall value.
7. Examine the results.
8. Conduct a sensitivity analysis of the results to changes in scores or
weights.
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25/03/2016
Applying MCA: Detailed steps
1. Establish the decision context. What are the aims of the MCA, and who
are the decision makers and other key players?
2. Identify the options.
3. Identify the objectives and criteria that reflect the value associated with
the consequences of each option.
4. Describe the expected performance of each option against the criteria.
(If the analysis is to include steps 5 and 6, also ‘score’ the options, i.e.
assess the value associated with the consequences of each option.)
5. ‘Weighting’. Assign weights for each of the criteria to reflect their
relative importance to the decision.
6. Combine the weights and scores for each of the options to derive an
overall value.
7. Examine the results.
8. Conduct a sensitivity analysis of the results to changes in scores or
weights.
Decision Matrix
• Is a matrix that consists of a number of
strategies (also called: alternatives / actions)
and a number of criteria (also called: aspects /
dimensions) by which they are ranked.
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General Decision Matrix
Example Decision Matrix
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Decision Matrix with No Scoring
Applying MCA: Detailed steps
1. Establish the decision context. What are the aims of the MCA, and who
are the decision makers and other key players?
2. Identify the options.
3. Identify the objectives and criteria that reflect the value associated with
the consequences of each option.
4. Describe the expected performance of each option against the criteria.
(If the analysis is to include steps 5 and 6, also ‘score’ the options, i.e.
assess the value associated with the consequences of each option.)
5. ‘Weighting’. Assign weights for each of the criteria to reflect their
relative importance to the decision.
6. Combine the weights and scores for each of the options to derive an
overall value.
7. Examine the results.
8. Conduct a sensitivity analysis of the results to changes in scores or
weights.
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Scoring
• Set up consistent numerical scales for the assessment of criteria so
that sense of direction is same in all cases ‐ better levels of
performance lead to higher value scores
• Conventional to allot a value score to each criterion between 0 to
100 on an interval scale
• Define the levels of performance corresponding to any two reference
points on the scale, and (usually) use the two extreme scores of 0
and 100
• For example, assign a score of 0 to represent the worst level of
performance that is likely to be encountered and 100 to represent
the best level.
Scoring
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Scoring
Decision Matrix with No Scoring
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Decision Matrix With Scoring
Applying MCA: Detailed steps
1. Establish the decision context. What are the aims of the MCA, and who
are the decision makers and other key players?
2. Identify the options.
3. Identify the objectives and criteria that reflect the value associated with
the consequences of each option.
4. Describe the expected performance of each option against the criteria.
(If the analysis is to include steps 5 and 6, also ‘score’ the options, i.e.
assess the value associated with the consequences of each option.)
5. ‘Weighting’. Assign weights for each of the criteria to reflect their
relative importance to the decision.
6. Combine the weights and scores for each of the options to derive an
overall value.
7. Examine the results.
8. Conduct a sensitivity analysis of the results to changes in scores or
weights.
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Weights
• A unit of preference on one does not
necessarily equal a unit of preference on
another.
Weights
• The weight on a criterion reflects both the
range of difference of the options, and how
much that difference matters. So it may well
happen that a criterion which is widely seen
as ‘very important’ – say safety – will have a
similar or lower weight than another relatively
lower priority criterion – say maintenance
costs. This would happen if all the options had
much the same level of safety but varied
widely in maintenance costs.
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Weights
• Any numbers can be used for the weights so
long as their ratios consistently represent the
ratios of the valuation of the differences in
preferences between the top and bottom
scores (whether 100 and 0 or other numbers)
of the scales which are being weighted.
Applying MCA: Detailed steps
1. Establish the decision context. What are the aims of the MCA, and who
are the decision makers and other key players?
2. Identify the options.
3. Identify the objectives and criteria that reflect the value associated with
the consequences of each option.
4. Describe the expected performance of each option against the criteria.
(If the analysis is to include steps 5 and 6, also ‘score’ the options, i.e.
assess the value associated with the consequences of each option.)
5. ‘Weighting’. Assign weights for each of the criteria to reflect their
relative importance to the decision.
6. Combine the weights and scores for each of the options to derive an
overall value.
7. Examine the results.
8. Conduct a sensitivity analysis of the results to changes in scores or
weights.
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Weight Calculation
CALCULATE OVERALL WEIGHTED SCORES AT EACH LEVEL IN THE
HIERARCHY
• The overall preference score for each option is simply the weighted
average of its scores on all the criteria.
• Letting the preference score for option ݅ on criterion ݆ be
represented by ݏ and the weight for each criterion by ݓ , then n
criteria the overall score for each option, ܵ , is given by:
• In words, multiply an option’s score on a criterion by the
importance weight of the criterion, do that for all the criteria, then
sum the products to give the overall preference score for that
option. Then repeat the process for the remaining options.
CALCULATE OVERALL
WEIGHTED SCORES
• The theory of MCDA makes clear that the simple
weighted averaging calculation is justified only if one
particular condition is met: all the criteria must be
mutually preference independent.
• This is a straightforward idea, simpler and less
restrictive than real‐world independence or statistical
independence.
•This means that the preference scores assigned to all
options on one criterion are unaffected by the preference
scores on the other criteria.
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CALCULATE OVERALL
WEIGHTED SCORES
An example
• Two criteria can be causally linked in the real world,
creating statistical correlation between the scores on the
two criteria, yet be preference independent.
• Cars with well‐appointed interiors are generally more
expensive; price and poshness are positively correlated.
• However, most people generally prefer nicer interiors and
less pricey cars. Preference scores can be given for cars’
interiors without knowing what the cars cost, and for price
without knowing how well appointed the interiors are.
• Preferences are mutually independent even though
correlation exists in the real world.
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CALCULATE OVERALL
WEIGHTED SCORES
Applying MCA: Detailed steps
1. Establish the decision context. What are the aims of the MCA, and who
are the decision makers and other key players?
2. Identify the options.
3. Identify the objectives and criteria that reflect the value associated with
the consequences of each option.
4. Describe the expected performance of each option against the criteria.
(If the analysis is to include steps 5 and 6, also ‘score’ the options, i.e.
assess the value associated with the consequences of each option.)
5. ‘Weighting’. Assign weights for each of the criteria to reflect their
relative importance to the decision.
6. Combine the weights and scores for each of the options to derive an
overall value.
7. Examine the results.
8. Conduct a sensitivity analysis of the results to changes in scores or
weights.
13
25/03/2016
Applying MCA: Detailed steps
1. Establish the decision context. What are the aims of the MCA, and who
are the decision makers and other key players?
2. Identify the options.
3. Identify the objectives and criteria that reflect the value associated with
the consequences of each option.
4. Describe the expected performance of each option against the criteria.
(If the analysis is to include steps 5 and 6, also ‘score’ the options, i.e.
assess the value associated with the consequences of each option.)
5. ‘Weighting’. Assign weights for each of the criteria to reflect their
relative importance to the decision.
6. Combine the weights and scores for each of the options to derive an
overall value.
7. Examine the results.
8. Conduct a sensitivity analysis of the results to changes in scores or
weights.
Sensitivity Analysis
(Change Price Weight from 30 to 0)
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Sensitivity Analysis
(Evenness of Toasting from 15 to 30)
Multi‐Criteria Decision Analysis
• Since MCDA involves a certain element of
subjectiveness, the morals and ethics of the
persons implementing MCDA play a significant
part in the accuracy and fairness of MCDA's
conclusions.
• The ethical point is very important when one
is making a decision that seriously impacts on
other people, as opposed to a personal
decision.
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Methods for MCDA
A variety of MCDA methods exist to develop score and weight criteria:
• Aggregated Indices Randomization Method (AIRM)
• Analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
• Analytic network process (ANP)
• The evidential reasoning approach (ER)
• Goal programming
• Measuring Attractiveness by a categorical Based Evaluation Technique(MACBETH)
• Multi‐Attribute Global Inference of Quality (MAGIQ)
• Multi‐attribute utility theory (MAUT)
• Multi‐attribute value theory (MAVT)
• Nonstructural Fuzzy Decision Support System (NSFDSS)
• Potentially All Pairwise RanKings of all possible Alternatives (PAPRIKA)
• Value analysis (VA)
• Value engineering (VE)
• Weighted product model (WPM)
• Weighted sum model (WSM)
Multi‐Criteria Decision Analysis
• Different methods may yield different results for
exactly the same problem.
• In other words, when exactly the same problem
data are used with different MCDA / MCDM
methods, such methods may recommend
different solutions even for very simple problems
(i.e., ones with very few alternatives and criteria).
• This raises the fundamental issues of how to
evaluate and compare various MCDA / MCDM
methods.
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Multi‐Criteria Decision Analysis
• Choosing the best MCDA / MCDM method is
itself a multi‐criteria decision making problem,
in which the alternatives are the methods
themselves and the decision criteria are the
various evaluative ways for comparing them.
• Finding the best MCDA / MCDM method
requires using the best MCDA / MCDM
method on this fundamental problem.
• This leads to a decision making paradox.
Model Choice
• The choice of which model is most
appropriate depends on the problem at hand
and may be to some extent dependent on
which model the decision maker is most
comfortable with.
• A question with all methods and future
methods, is how to assess their effectiveness.
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Testing MCDA Models
• How can one evaluate decision making
methods?
• This is a very difficult issue and may not be
answered in a globally accepted manner.
Rank Reversals in Decision Making
• One way to test the validity of decision making
methods is to construct special test problems
and then study the solutions they derive.
• If the solutions exhibit some logic
contradictions (in the form of undesirable rank
reversals of the alternatives), then one may
argue that something is wrong with the
method that derived them.
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Rank Reversals in Decision Making
• Suppose that three candidates are evaluated for some job
opening. Let us designate these candidates as A, B, and C.
• Suppose that some decision making method has
determined that the best candidate for that job is person A,
followed by B, who is followed by C.
• This is the first ranking and it is indicated as follows: A > B >
C (where > means better than).
• Next, suppose that candidate B (who is not the best one) is
replaced by an even worse candidate, say person D. That is,
now we have B > D, and candidate B is replaced by D while
candidates A and C remain in the pool of candidates with
exactly the same characteristics as before.
Rank Reversals in Decision Making
• When the new set of alternatives (i.e., candidates
A, D and C) are ranked together and by assuming
that the criteria have exactly the same weights as
before, then should not candidate A still be the
best one?
• It turns out that under some decision making
methods the best alternative may be different
now..
• This is known as a rank reversal and it is one of
the types of rank reversals.
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Rank Reversals in Decision Making
• The issue of rank reversals has captured the
interest of many researchers and practitioners
in the field of decision making.
• It is something that continues to be
considered controversial by many and is a
subject area of debated by academics.
Different Types of Rank Reversals
• There are many different types of rank
reversals, depending on how the alternatives
in a problem are defined and evaluated. These
types are described as Type 1, Type 2, Type 3,
Type 4, and Type 5.
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Type 1
• As stated earlier, one may introduce identical
or near‐identical copies of non‐optimal
alternatives and then check to see if the
indication of the best alternative changes or
not.[
Type 2
• Another way is to replace a non‐optimal
alternative with a worse one and then see if
the indication of the best alternative changes
or not
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Type 3
• Run some tests as follows. First consider a
problem with all the alternatives together and
get a ranking. Next, decompose the original
problem into a set of smaller problems
defined on two alternatives at a time and the
same criteria (and their weights) as before.
Get the rankings of these smaller problems
and check to see if they are in conflict with the
ranking of the alternatives of the original
(larger) problem
Type 4
• This is like the previous case, but now ignore the
ranking of the original (larger) problem. Instead,
check to see if the rankings of the smaller
problems are in conflict with each other. For
instance, suppose that the following 3
alternatives A, B, and C are considered. Next,
suppose that some 2‐alternative problems are
solved and the rankings A > B, B > C, and C > A,
are derived from these 2‐alternative problems.
Obviously, the above situation indicates a case of
non‐transitivity (or contradiction) as we get A > B
> C > A.
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Type 5
• All previous types of rank reversals are known to occur with
the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and its additive
variants, the TOPSIS and ELECTRE methods and their
variants.
• The weighted product model (WPM) does not exhibit the
previous types of rank reversals, due to the multiplication
formula it uses.[However, the WPM does cause rank
reversals when it is compared with the weighted sum
model (WSM) and under the condition that all the criteria
of a given decision problem can be measured in exactly the
same unit.
• The same is true with all the previous methods as well.
• This is the Type 5 ranking reversal.
Other Rank Reversals
• It is quite possible to define more types of
rank reversals. One only needs to determine
ways to alter a test problem and see how the
ranking of the alternatives of the new problem
differs from the original ranking of the
alternatives of the original problem.
Furthermore, the difference in rankings,
somehow, should indicate the presence of
undesirable effects.
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Are rank reversals always
undesirable?
• Decision making methods are used to make decisions in many
aspects of human activity.
• This is especially true with decisions that involve large amounts of
money or decisions that may have huge impact on large numbers of
people.
• Given the well‐established fact that difference methods may yield
different answers when they are fed with exactly the same
problem, the question is how to evaluate them.
• Rank reversals are at the very heart of assessing the merits of such
methods.
• At the same time, there are at the center of many heated debates
in this area.
• Many authors use them as means to criticize decision making
methods or to better explain rational behavior.
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