CE:422 Sustainable Development &

Disaster Risk Management

to
8th semester CED (B,E), UET Peshawar
03 credit hrs

Edited By
Muhammad Waseem
 Course Objectives
• Sustainable development: The objective is to
encourage the students in exploring the
challenges that society is facing and to
understand the role of Civil Engineers in the
society. To understand the interactions between
the Civil Engineering profession, physical
infrastructure, and social institutions.

• Disaster Risk Management: The purpose of this

course is to provide an introduction to the roles of
Engineers and Planners in Disasters response and
preparedness. Engineers and Planners are
concerned with the long-term aspects of disaster:
the processes of pre-disaster mitigation and post
disaster recovery. The course will only minimally
touch on disaster response and emergency
preparedness.

• To introduce students with the tools and

approaches to deal with complexity and
uncertainty
 Course Outline
Week Weekly Lectures CLOs PLOs Remarks
1 Introduction to sustainability the Humanity and 1 7 To be taught from Class Notes"
environment and its state; IPAT Equation; Sustainability
Challenges
2 Development of Public policy; Role of civil engineers in 1 7 Class Notes, Chapter 2 of
the society; Sustainability and Public Policy; "Sustainability a comprehensive
Environmental Risk Management foundation"
Assignment No. 1,

3 Definitions; Sustainable Development; Complex 1 7 Lecture Notes

engineering Problems. Introduction to the tools and
approaches for solving complex problems
4 Definitions; Sustainable Development; Complex 1,2 7 Lecture Notes
engineering Problems. Introduction to the tools and
approaches for solving complex problems, Triple Bottom
Line
5 Definitions; Sustainable Development; Complex 1 5,7 Lecture Notes
engineering Problems. Introduction to the tools and 1. Age of Sustainable Development
approaches for solving complex problems, Life Cycle 2.
Assessment Sustainable Development in Practice:
case studies for Scientists and
Engineers
6 Qualitative mapping and modeling of complex problems 2 5,7 Lectures
on VENSIM (Systems Thinking Software) Complex engineering problem
7 Quantitative mapping and modeling of complex problems 2 5,7 Complex engineering problem
on STELLA (System Dynamics Software)
 Course Outline
Week Weekly Lectures CLOs PLOs Remarks

9 Overview of Disasters; Basic Disasters Concepts and Social 1 7

Contexts of Disasters
10 Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk (Probability and Statistics) 1 7
Concepts
11 A broad understanding of Disaster Risk Management, 1 7
including prevention / preparedness before Disasters and
recovery / reconstruction after Disasters.
12 Disaster Mitigation-Recovery policy and Disaster risk 2 7
management of national level with practical system and
laws
13 Creation of Pakistan emergency management system 2 7

14 Introduction to risk management tools 1 7

15 Flood Risk Management 1 7

16 Earthquake Risk Management 1 7

Final Term Exam 1,2,3 5,7

 Week 6 : Lecture No. 6

SYSTEMS THINKING
Books
 Learning Objectives
The students shall be able to
• Understand systems thinking
• Become aware of available tools used in
systems thinking
• Identify feedback structures in complex
problems
• Draw causal loop diagrams including at least
one feedback loop
 Re-Cap
• Week 4: Triple Bottom Line and Guidelines to
draw causal loop diagrams by Daniel H. Kim
(Systems thinking approach)

• Week 5 : Life cycle assessment (LCA) and

Sustainable Development as complex
engineering problem
 Future course of action

• Week 7: Complex Engineering Problem;

Qualitative modeling, Quantitative modeling
and Rubrics
• Week 8: System dynamics and stock and flow
modeling
 System Thinking
• Systems thinking is an approach to describe the complex
problems.

• System behavior results from the effects of reinforcing and

balancing processes

• It uses variety of diagrams and graphs to model, illustrate,

and predict system behavior e.g., behavior over time (BOT)
graph, which indicates the actions of one or more variables
over a period of time; the causal loop diagram (CLD), which
illustrates the relationships between system elements,
simulations through System Dynamics
Systems thinking is a holistic approach to
analysis that focuses on the way that a
system's constituent parts interrelate and how
systems work over time and within the context
of larger systems.
 Causal Loop Diagrams

• Feedback is a core concept of System Dynamics (SD).

• Our “mental models” often fail to include critical
feedbacks determining the dynamics of our systems.
• CLDs and stock and flow maps are the diagramming
tools used in SD to capture the structure of a system.
(Sterman, 2000)

“Behavior over time (BOT) graph, which indicates the actions of one or
more variables over a period of time”
 Causal Loop Diagrams
• Causal loop diagrams (CLDs) are
an important tool for representing
the feedback structure of systems.

• CLDs are excellent for

• 1. Quickly capturing your

hypotheses about the cause of
dynamics;
• 2. Eliciting and capturing the
mental models of individuals or
teams;
• 3. Communicating the important
feedbacks you believe are
responsible for a problem.
Causal Loop Diagrams
• A causal diagram consists of
variables connected by arrows
denoting the causal influences
among the variables.

• Variables are related by causal

links, shown by arrows.

• Each causal link is assigned a

polarity, either positive (+) or
negative (-) to indicate how the
dependent variable changes
when the independent variable
changes.
Causal Loop Diagrams
 Causal Loop Diagrams
• A positive link means that if the cause increases,
the effect increases above what it would
otherwise have been, and if the cause decreases,
the effect decreases below what it would
otherwise have been.

• Please write down in your journals the definition

for the negative link.

• "...................................................................."
 Causal Loop Diagrams
• In the example, an increase in
the average lifetime of the
population means the death rate
(in people per year) will fall
below what it would have been.

• Decrease in the average lifetime

means the death rate will rise
above what it would have been.

• Thus if life expectancy increases,

the number of deaths will fall;
and if life expectancy falls, the
death rate will rise.
 Causal Loop Diagrams
• Link polarities describe the
structure of the system.
• They do not describe the
behavior of the variables.
• Thus they describe what
would happen IF there were
a change.
• They do not describe what
actually happens.
• The causal diagram doesn't
tell what would happen if the
variable were to change.
 Causal Loop Dynamics
• An increase in a cause
variable does not
necessarily mean the
effect will actually
increase.
• There are two reasons.
• First, a variable often has
more than one input. To
determine what actually
happens you need to
know how all the inputs
are changing.
 Causal Loop Diagram
• When assessing the polarity of
individual links, assume all
other variables are constant
(the famous assumption of
ceteris paribus).

• When assessing the actual

behavior of a system, all
variables interact
simultaneously (all else is not
equal)and computer simulation
is usually needed to trace out
the behavior of the system and
determine which loops are
dominant.
 Causal Loop Diagrams
• Second, and Importantly,
• CLDs do not distinguish between
stocks and flows i .e. the
accumulations of resources in a
system and the rates of change that
alter those resources.

• In example the population is a stock

which accumulates the birth rate less
the death rate. An increase in birth
rate increase the population but
decrease in birth rate does not
decrease the population.

• Births can only increase the

population they can never reduce it.
 Causal Loop Diagrams
• To know whether a stock is
increasing or decreasing you must
know its net rate of change (in this
case, births less deaths)

• If birth rate rises, population will

rise above what it would have been
in the absence of the change in
births, even if the population
continues to fall. Population will be
falling at a slower rate than it
otherwise would.

• Structure and behavior of stocks

and flows is our next target as is
becoming obvious.
 Guidelines for Causal Loop Diagrams
Causation Vs Correlation
1. Every link in your diagram must
represent (What you believe to
be) causal relationships
between the variables.
2. Your models and causal
diagrams must include only
those relationships you believe
capture the underlying causal
structure of the system.
1. Must not include correlations
between variables. Correlations
among variables reflect the past
behavior of a system.
2. Correlations do not represent the
structure of the system.
If circumstances change, if
previously dormant feedback
loops become dominant, if new
policies are tried, previously
reliable correlations among
variables may break down.
 Guidelines for Causal Loop Diagrams
Causation Vs Correlation
• The Latin root of the word simulate , simulare, means
"to imitate." A system dynamics model must mimic
the structure of the real system well enough that the
model behaves the same way the real system would.

• The Behavior includes not only replicating historical

experience but also responding to circumstances and
policies that are entirely novel.

• Correlations among variables will emerge from the

behavior of the model when you simulate it.
Guidelines for Causal Loop Diagrams
Causation Vs Correlation
Guidelines for Causal Loop Diagrams
Causation Vs Correlation
 Guidelines for Causal Loop Diagrams
Labeling and Determining Loop
Polarities
The Fast Way: Count the Number of
Negative Links
• If the number of negative links is even,
the loop is positive; if the number is
odd, the loop is negative.
• A single negative link causes the signal
to reverse: an increase becomes a
decrease. But another negative link
reverses the signal again, so the
decrease becomes an increase,
reinforcing the original disturbance.
• Fast method always works.......except
in a complex diagram a miscount
occurs. Any mislabel in the diagram.
The Right Way: Trace the Effect of a
Change around the Loop
• If the feedback effect reinforces the
original change, it is a positive loop; if
it opposes the original change, it is
negative loop. One can start with any
variable in the loop and the answer
shall be the same.
• Assigning loop polarity the right way
rather than the fast way saves time in
the long run.
 Guidelines for Causal Loop Diagrams
Naming the Loops
• To help your audience navigate the
network of loops, it's helpful to give
each important feedback a number
and a name.

• Numbering the loops R1, R2, B1, B2,

and so on helps your audience find
each loop as you discuss it.

• Naming the loops helps your

audience understand the function of
each loop and provides useful
shorthand for discussion.

• Labels stand in for a complex set of

causal links.
Guidelines for Causal Loop Diagrams
Indicating delays in Causal Links
• Delays are critical in creating
dynamics. Delays give systems
inertia, can create oscillation,
and are often responsible for
trade-offs between the
short-and long-run effects of
policies.

• Explicitly portraying the many

delays between a change in
price and the resulting change
in demand makes it easier to
see the worse-before-better
behavior of expenditures on
gasoline caused by a price
increase.
 Guidelines for Causal Loop Diagrams
Assigning Variable Names
• 1. Variable Names Should
Be Nouns or Noun
Phrases.

• 2. Variable Names Must

Have a Clear Sense of
Direction.

• 3. Choose Variables
Whose Normal Sense of
Direction is Positive.
 Guidelines for Causal Loop Diagrams
Tips For Causal Loop Diagrams
1. Use curved lines for information feedbacks. Curved lines help
reader visualize the feedback loops.

2. Make important loops follow circular or oval paths.

3. Organize your diagrams to minimize crossed lines.

4. Don't put circles, hexagons, or other symbols around the

variables in causal diagrams. With exception of showing
stocks and flows with rectangles and valves respectively.

5. Iterate . Since you often won't know what all the variables
and loops will be when you start, you will have to redraw
your diagrams, often many times, to find the best layout.
Guidelines for Causal Loop Diagrams
Choose Right Level Of Aggregation
• Causal loop diagrams are designed to
communicate the central feedback
structure of your dynamic hypothesis.

• Plausibility and realism needs to be

maintained.

• If audience doesn't grasp the logic of a

causal link, you should make some of the
intermediate variables more explicit.

• Once you have clarified the logic to the

satisfaction of all, you often can "chunk"
the more detailed representation into a
simple, more aggregate form. The simpler
diagram then serves as a marker for the
richer, underlying causal structure.
 Guidelines for Causal Loop Diagrams
Don’t Pull All The Loops in One Large
CLD
• Short-term memory can hold 5 or 9 chunks of information
at once. this puts rather sharp limit on the effective size and
complexity of a causal map.

• Resist the temptation to put all the loops you and your
clients have identified into a single comprehensive diagram.

• Build up your model in stages, with a series of smaller

causal loop diagrams. Each diagram should correspond to
one part of dynamic story being told.

• Chunk the diagrams into a simpler, high level overview to

show how they interact with one another.
 Guidelines for Causal Loop Diagrams
Make Goals of Negative Loops explicit
• All negative feedback loops have goals.
Goals are the desired state of the
system, and all negative loops function
by comparing the actual state to the
goal, then initiating a corrective action
in response to the discrepancy.

• Making goals explicit encourages

people to ask how the goals are
formed. The goals in most systems are
not given exogenously but are
themselves part of the feedback
structure.

• Making goals of negative loops explicit

is important when capturing human
behavior.
Guidelines for Causal Loop Diagrams
Distinguish B/W Actual & Perceived
Conditions
• Often there are significant
differences between the true
state of affairs and the
perception of that state by the
actors in the system.

• There may be delays caused by

reporting and measurement
processes.
•
• There may be noise ,
measurement error, bias, and
distortions.
 Process Point: Developing CLD from an
Interview Data
• Much of the data a modeler uses to develop a dynamic
hypothesis comes from interviews and conversations with
people in organizations.

• Semi-structured interviews (where modeler has a set of

predefined questions to ask but is free to depart from the
script to pursue avenues of particular interest) have proven
to be particularly effective.

• The modeler must triangulate by using as many sources of

data as possible to gain insight into the structure of the
problem situation and the decision processes of the actors
in it.
Process Point: Developing CLD from an
Interview Data
• Formulate variable names so that they correspond
closely to the actual words used by the person you
interviewed, while still adhering to the principles for
proper variable name selection described above (noun
phrases, a clear and positive sense of direction).
Causal links should be directly supported by a passage
in the transcript.

• If you are trying to represent a person's mental model,

you must not include any links that cannot be
grounded in the person's own statements.
 Conclusions
Start making arrows in your journal.
They can be random initially but with the passage of time
be sure to revisit this lecture and follow the rules to put
your arrows between two quantities.
Make sure you are working on causal relationships not
correlations.
You are doing Qualitative analysis not quantitative.
What you have learnt today is just system thinking and it’s
a start ………
Next time we meet please come with a story in your
journal with arrows and engineering problems around us.
Thank You
 References
• J. D. Sterman, Systems Thinking and Modeling
for a Complex World, no. December 1999.
2000.
• Systems Thinking In Public Health by Johns
Hopkins University, Online course on Coursera
Supplementary Slides