International Journal of Market Research Vol.

59 Issue 1

How political candidates’ use of

Facebook relates to the election
outcomes
Hsin-Chen Lin
University of New Brunswick, Canada

This paper examines the relationship between political candidates’ use of

Facebook and their election outcomes (vote share and election success). The use
of social media in political marketing campaigns has grown dramatically over the
past few years. It is also expected to become even more critical to future political
campaigns, as it creates two-way communication and engagement that stimulates
and fosters candidates’ relationships with their supporters. Online Facebook data
were acquired for all 84 candidates running in a municipal election in Taiwan.
Results suggest that a candidate’s Facebook presence, the type of account they
use, the authentication of the account, and the number of online fans they have
are related to their election outcomes.

Introduction
The emergence and adaptation of online communication technologies,
such as Facebook, Twitter and Google Plus, have dramatically changed
communication between politicians and their constituents during elections.
Generally speaking, marketing communication channels such as newspapers,
television advertising, radio and billboards are being replaced by internet
and social media services as the primary channels through which companies
communicate with their customers (West 2013), a shift that has also been
adopted by politicians in election campaigns (Hong & Nadler 2012). For
example, American presidents traditionally announce their decision to run
for re-election through a formal televised announcement from the White
House, however, Barack Obama’s official announcement of his re-election
bid for the 2012 presidential election was delivered via Twitter tweets
and YouTube video (Adams 2011). During his campaign, Barack Obama

Received (in revised form): 17 January 2016

© 2017 The Market Research Society 77

DOI: 10.2501/IJMR-2017-004
How political candidates’ use of Facebook relates to the election outcomes

employed more than 100 staff and invested $47 million in his social media
outreach, which included regularly posting political updates, monitoring
these messages and communicating with supporters (West 2013). As can be
seen from this example and more recent developments, social media has
become a critical domain of political communication and competition.
Indeed, social media has begun to be recognized as important within
political elections, as research suggests that the number of times a politician
is mentioned by traditional media is positively related to the number of
mentions he or she gets on Twitter (Hong & Nadler 2012). Research
has generally shown that firms’ social media presence and online posts
increase product sales (Stephen & Galak 2012), as well as yielding positive
effects on commercial brand evaluation and purchase intentions (Naylor
et al. 2012). However, political campaigns are different from commercial
campaigns because: (1) elections only occur every few years with a clear
endpoint; (2) the winner-takes-all nature of elections provides voters with
incentives to influence others; and (3) candidates usually hold political
opinions that run counter to the policies proposed by their opponents.
Therefore, the empirical findings on the relationship between social
media use and commercial brands may not be the same as the relationship
between social media use and political candidates’ success. Despite the
evidence suggesting the relationships between social media use and election
strategy, Couldry (2015) argues that, in theory, social media accounts don’t
facilitate longer-term political action. In this regard, while the relationship
between candidates’ use of social media and their election results holds
great potential value for future research (Iyengar & Prior 1999; see also
Gordon et al. 2012 for a full review), the relationships that candidates’
social media presence and the specific nature of their social media use have
with their subsequent election results remain unclear.
The study narrows its scope to focus on the social media platform
Facebook. According to Alexa.com (2016), Facebook has the highest
amount of traffic of any other social media platform, with 1.65 billion
monthly active users. This is a substantial figure when compared to
Twitter’s 310 million users. The current study assesses how the adoption
and application decisions regarding Facebook relate to a candidate’s
electoral success, to allow a better understanding of how decisions
regarding the use of social networking technology to manage one’s social
media presence relates to candidates’ success in contemporary political
marketing. These relationships are examined within the context of the
2014 municipal election in Taiwan, where Facebook was the primary
and dominant social media platform. In this study, Facebook data were

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acquired from all 84 mayoral candidates within all 22 municipalities

participating in the election.
Two main contributions to the literature on social media and political
marketing are expected. First, the research is expected to contribute to the
general knowledge on the relationship between the use of social media and
election success using a unique sample and a specific application of social
media technology (i.e. Facebook). In this regard, the study offers a unique
and valuable context to reinforce and extend the current knowledge relating
to candidates’ use of Facebook, and more general use of social media, in
political campaigns. Second, the research is also expected to contribute to
the political marketing literature by explaining important considerations
and actions that political candidates should make when using Facebook to
promote their candidacy in an election. Specifically, it will assess whether
candidates’ use of a more or less professional Facebook presence and their
choices to verify (authenticate) their pages positively relates to both vote
share and actually being elected. These two actions represent important
elements of social media (Facebook) communication in the political domain,
providing an initial quantitative empirical test of whether actions that convey
professionalism (i.e. using a professional Facebook ‘page’) and authenticity
(i.e. verifying one’s Facebook ‘page’) relate to candidates’ electoral success.
The study will proceed as follows. First, relevant literature will be
reviewed that relates to topics of political campaigns, Facebook use in
political campaigns and authenticity within political campaigns. The
unique social media environment in Taiwan will then be presented; this is
followed by a description of the analytic results assessing the relationships
between candidates’ use of Facebook and election outcomes.

Literature review and hypotheses

Social media, Facebook and political campaigns

Traditionally, political candidates would communicate with the electorate
via radio and television advertisements. They would focus on major
TV networks and channels to broadcast their political views on certain
issues, hoping to influence voters’ political judgements in order to win the
election (West 2013). While studies of these political processes (Hoegg
& Lewis 2011; Gordon & Hartmann 2013) focused on television ads,
neglecting the relationship between candidates’ use of social media and
their election outcomes, marketing researchers have investigated multiple
issues within the political marketing literature. For example, they have

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How political candidates’ use of Facebook relates to the election outcomes

considered how election outcomes are related to advertising effects (Hoegg

& Lewis 2011; Gordon & Hartmann 2013), candidate appearance (Hoegg
& Lewis 2011), comparisons of a candidate’s traditional media mentions
and their social media mentions (Hong & Nadler 2012), and the negative
effects of greater weightings of candidates’ weaknesses compared with
their strengths (Klein & Ahluwalia 2005).
The current paper considers whether the use of social media (Facebook)
and specific online account management decisions relate to election success
through four hypotheses and one exploratory research question. These
predictions and inquiries are broken down into three general subsections.
The first deals with candidates’ general use of Facebook to address the
fundamental question of whether the use of Facebook relates to election
outcomes. The second section specifically addresses the decisions individuals
can make to reflect virtues of professionalism (i.e. selecting a Facebook page
specifically designed for commercial or political entities) and authenticity (i.e.
having one’s identity verified by Facebook) to their followers. This section
explains the different types of Facebook accounts a candidate can have, and
generally predicts that decisions reflecting professionalism and authenticity
will relate to better election results. The third subsection considers whether
online activity in the form of fan support and candidate posts relates to
election results, predicting that the number of followers a candidate has
relates to their election outcomes. An exploratory research question also
inquires into whether a candidate’s engagement with their constituents
according to the number of posts they make relates to election results.

Use of Facebook, online social support and political success

Political candidates’ use of a personalized social media account is expected
to positively relate to their election outcomes. Media coverage can affect
voters’ choices and shape public opinion (Page & Shapiro 1992). Political
campaigns are engaged to influence the decisions of voters, to promote
the candidates, to publicize their positions and to claim credit for their
achievements (Mayhew 1974). Political candidates exploit any opportunity
possible to contact voters, raise their profile and share their positions on key
issues (Lassen & Brown 2011). Social media platforms such as Facebook
provide this opportunity by helping candidates engage supporters and
increase communications with the public. In 2012, presidential candidate
Barack Obama launched a Facebook application allowing supporters to
connect with the campaign and share specific online content with certain
friends. More than half a million supporters followed Obama’s Facebook

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campaigns, and asked their Facebook friends to register to vote, donate

money or view persuasive campaign materials (Scherer 2012). Results of
an experimental study of 61 million Facebook users indicate that political
posts on social media can influence followers, their friends and friends
of friends (Bond et al. 2012). Thus, political communications occurring
through Facebook appear to influence the real-world voting behaviour of
millions of people by connecting a campaign to a wide range of ‘friends’
through an online contact person. Current research and theory suggest that
politicians and their management teams can foster individualised collective
action through social media sites (Bennett 2012); the Facebook management
team’s different use of features has an effect on Facebook users’ commitment
to the site (Vasalou et al. 2010); and that the information on Facebook
can spread across a fan’s network within a short period of time (Hsu et al.
2015). Together, these suggestions imply that social media sites, such as
Facebook, are fast and effective ways that political candidates could use to
foster support and constituent commitment for their campaigns
Candidates’ use of Facebook is expected to relate to their election
outcomes, as their Facebook presence provides an autonomous environment
where people’s relationships with the candidates could be interactive. Fans
or supporters can choose to follow the candidate’s Facebook account to
receive updates and marketing messages, with the freedom to opt out
any time they want. They are free to make their own choices to follow a
page, and are free to express themselves by commenting, sharing or liking
candidates’ messages. They are also free from the pressure to behave
in certain ways, such as providing only positive comments or filtering
out more balanced evaluations. When voters opt in to follow a political
candidate’s social media website they are exposed to the newest issues and
events related to the candidate. Thus, it is expected that:

H1: Political candidates’ Facebook presence will be positively

related to their election outcomes.

Professional Facebook presentation, Facebook authenticity and political

success
There are multiple ways that political candidates can differ in how they
manage their online social media presence, and these decisions could relate
to their election success. One such managerial decision involves which type
of Facebook account a candidate uses, as they can choose to create different
types of Facebook accounts to foster relationships with their supporters.

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How political candidates’ use of Facebook relates to the election outcomes

Facebook provides a venue for candidates to create a ‘page’, a ‘profile’,

or a ‘group’, which in turn allow fans to ‘like’ a page, ‘follow’ a profile or
‘join’ a group. A ‘page’ is designed to be the official account for entities
such as brands or political candidates, which can have an unlimited number
of fans and the option of verifying the account. A ‘profile’ is designed as a
personal account where users can have both friends and followers. A ‘group’
is designed as an online collective where people can share their common
interests and express opinions. Figure 1 presents visual examples of each
type of Facebook account from politicians within the United States.
A candidate’s choice of the type of account they use is likely to signal
how they view and position themselves to their constituents. A ‘page’ could
be perceived by constituents as more professional, as it could be presented
as a human brand that allows candidates to focus on political issues, public
appearance and endorsements (Thomson 2006). On the other hand, a
‘profile’ could be perceived by constituents as more of a personal account
that might fail to differentiate a candidate from more casual Facebook users.
In this regard, candidates may use their original ‘profile’ account to support
their election campaign in the social media environment, and may also
post personal life messages along with their political views on this account.
A ‘group’ could be perceived as a less formal community where users can
collectively discuss certain political issues. However, the use of a group might
also imply the presence of a boundary between members and non-members,
which could exclude and alienate many constituents. Groups could also have
more ambiguous origins and administrations, making them seem like a less
official and reliable source. Facebook ‘pages’ are expected to present a more
professional online social media presence (i.e. image) than either Facebook
‘profiles’ or Facebook ‘groups’, making it likely that their use positively
relates to election outcomes. Thus, it is expected that:

H2: The type of Facebook accounts that candidates create will

relate to their election outcomes.

The choice of whether or not to ‘verify’ one’s identity is another important

decision candidates can make that is expected to relate to election outcomes.
A large number of social network sites are created by fans. For example, there
are 253 ‘pages’ and ‘groups’ on Facebook devoted to Coca-Cola. The official
Coca-Cola Facebook page, with 90 million followers, was not originally
created by Coca-Cola but by two fans: Dusty Song and Michael Jedrzejewski
(Klaassen 2009). The page was acquired by Coca-Cola to become its official
page in 2009. Any user on a social network platform can create an account

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Verified
Facebook page

Unverified
Facebook page

Facebook
profile

Facebook
group
Figure 1  Facebook page, profile and group

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How political candidates’ use of Facebook relates to the election outcomes

to express support for or interest in a brand or public figure, provided the

social network websites’ policies are not violated. In the political domain,
everyone, including a candidate’s opponents, can create a social media
page or group for the candidate. To address this possibility, social network
platform providers such as Facebook and Twitter offer a ‘verified badge’ next
to the page name if the public figure can prove authentic claim to the page.
Messages from trusted sources can reduce uncertainty when consumers
are seeking information and making judgements (Wathen & Burkell 2002).
These messages from trusted sources also decrease and eliminate framing
effects, where specific words and phrases can cause individuals to alter
their decisions in political marketing campaigns (Baum & Groeling 2008).
Political managers could create social media pages for both their clients and
the clients’ opponents to make their clients look good while casting the
opponents in a negative light. Voters do not just accept the messages they
encounter, but evaluate messages based partly on the message’s authenticity
(Kuklinski & Hurley 1994). One source of authenticity is based on source
labels that can identify the source of the content (Tseng & Fogg 1999).
Sources labelled ‘verified page’ by social media platform providers such
as Facebook or Twitter are likely to be perceived as being more authentic
than non-verified pages because of the presence of a formal verification
process. Research suggests that trustworthy sources are more persuasive
than dubious sources (Eagly & Chaiken 1993), and that relevant cues
and information shortcuts within the social and political environment can
influence voters (Kuklinski & Hurley 1994). Thus, social media pages that
provide credible sources and authentic information are expected to have a
positive relationship with election success:

H3: Candidates’ authentication of their social media site will be

positively related to their election outcomes.

Online Facebook support, posting activity and political success

The number of Facebook fans a candidate has is expected to positively
relate to their election outcomes. Candidates can post videos, photos,
events, messages, status updates and questions on their accounts. This
content can relate to their political positions, their personal life, greetings
sent to their supporters or attacks against their opponents. Fans can
choose to like the posts to show support, comment on the posts to
interact with the candidates or other followers, as well as share these
posts with their friends. Research has shown that campaign providers

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should actively increase the number of fans and selectively choose the
messages they want to post (Zhang & Peng 2015). Being a fan of a
candidate’s social media account(s) may reflect an individual’s visible
online support for the candidate. This support is likely to be signalled
to the candidate’s potential voter base given its online visibility. The
number of fans, followers and supporters a candidate has could exert
a normative pressure to support the candidate in question on the
candidate’s potential constituents through a salient online display of
support (Latané 1981; Cialdini et al. 1990). In this regard, the number
of fans that candidates have could echo or signal the support a candidate
has from others, to emphasise and/or reinforce voters’ perceptions of
the candidates’ legitimacy for the elected position. Thus, it is expected that:

H4: The number of fans a candidate has will be positively related

to their election results.

The number of posts a candidate makes might or might not relate to election
success. Each post from a candidate can increase their visibility on their
fans’ news feeds but could also increase the chance that fans opt out from
receiving too many marketing messages from the candidates. Candidates’
posts are likely to have positive, neutral or even negative implications for
the posting candidate. Supporting the positive relationship is the notion
that more effort, involvement and engagement directed towards one’s
constituents should, on average, improve a candidate’s election success.
However, the frequent posting of frivolous, contentious or even offensive
content would have neutral, and even possibly negative, effects. Given the
lack of a clear relationship between the number of posts a candidate makes
and their election outcomes, this relationship will be assessed with the
following exploratory research question:

RQ1: How does the number of posts a candidate makes relate to

their election outcomes?

Data collection
The study investigated the social media presence of mayoral candidates
in the Taiwanese municipal elections held on 29 November 2014. The
elections involved eligible voters from the designated cities directly casting
their ballots for a given mayoral candidate. The candidate who received

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How political candidates’ use of Facebook relates to the election outcomes

more votes than any others within the city was elected mayor. The Central
Election Commission of Taiwan shows that there were 18,511,356 voters
eligible to vote in 22 separate municipalities, giving an average voter base
of 841,425 per city. The overall rate of voter turnout was 67.89% across all
municipalities. Facebook data were used to test the hypotheses, as Kozinets
(2002) suggests that study websites should have a high level of interaction
with the customers (constituents) and a sufficient amount of web traffic.
In this regard, Facebook was the most prevalent social media website in
Taiwan and had the third highest traffic of all websites in the country,
behind a local search engine site (Google.com.tw) and a blog site (Pixnet.
net) (Alexa.com 2014). Pixnet was not included in the study as no mayoral
candidates had a Pixnet account before the 2014 elections. Other websites
in the top ten highest-traffic websites included other search sites (e.g.
Google.com), news sites (e.g. Ettodya.net), another blogger site (Xuite.net)
and an online video-sharing site (YouTube.com). Twitter, another popular
social media website prevalent in political campaigns in the United States
(Adams 2011), was listed as the site with the 72nd highest web traffic in
Taiwan (Alexa.com 2014). Furthermore, only one mayoral candidate had
a Twitter account, and had posted only three tweets since the account was
created. Thus, the study focused on political candidates’ use of Facebook
as the predominant social media site within the country and primary social
media portal used for political communications.
Facebook information was collected for all 84 candidates who were
running in the municipal elections a few days before the election. The
dataset included information on: the candidates’ names; the types of pages
used and managed by the candidates and/or their election office (Facebook
page, personal profile and Facebook group); the number of likes, followers
and group members they had; and whether or not they had a verification
badge. Data on the number of posts on their pages a year before the election
(from 29 November 2013 to 28 November 2014) were also collected. Users
on Facebook can create three different types of accounts for the candidates.
The first account is called a Facebook page – it showcases a politician’s image,
views on social issues, and events. A fan can create a Facebook page as a
candidate fan page, and the page’s owner can post, update and manage the
page. Enthusiastic fans can create pages for political candidates and update
the candidates’ news and political views. Political candidates’ election offices
can also create their own pages, and can request to be verified upon providing
proof of identity (e.g. with a driver’s licence, passport or birth certificate).
When a candidate’s identity is verified by Facebook, a blue ‘verification’
badge will appear next to their names on the page. Authentication was

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captured by documenting whether each candidate had or did not have this
verification badge. Facebook page posts are visible to everyone and people
can ‘like’ the Facebook page to receive updates in their news feed. The
number of likes the candidate had on the Facebook page run by their election
office was collected to count the number of fans supporting the candidate.
The second type of account is called a personal profile – this allows
owners of the page to share their posts and updates with their friends or
the general Facebook population. Only the individuals themselves can
create their personal profiles, not fans. A politician can discuss political
views on their personal profile and limit access to specific friends, or they
can select to share certain posts with their followers and the general public.
Personal profiles only allow up to 5,000 friends but page owners can allow
an unlimited number of people to ‘follow’ their posts. The friends of a
personal profile automatically are the ‘followers’ of the profile, therefore
the followers of the candidates’ personal profile were collected to count
the number of fans each candidate had.
The third type of account is called a group – this is where people can share
their common interests and express their opinions. Groups allow people to
coalesce around a common issue or activity to organise, discuss and share
related content. Enthusiastic fans can create multiple groups to discuss a
candidate, while candidates can create groups to express opinions or discuss
topics with an engaged audience. Group owners can make the group publicly
available, require administrator approval of new members, or keep the group
private and accessible by invitation only. Members of groups can see posts
in their news feeds and interact with other group members. The number of
members who joined the candidate’s group run by their election office were
collected to count the number of fans each candidate had.
In total, 55 candidates had a Facebook page, a personal profile or a
group that was managed by their election office on Facebook. Of those,
72.7% had a Facebook page, 23.6% had a personal profile and 3.6% had
a group account. Among the candidates who had a Facebook page, 43.6%
had their page verified. To receive the verification badge, the candidate
was required to submit their proof of identity, such as a driver’s licence,
passport or birth certificate to Facebook. On average, each candidate who
had a Facebook account had 328.62 posts on their page, profile, or group
over the year before the election date. The other 29 candidates who had
no Facebook presence also had no other social media accounts (e.g. Twitter,
any blog accounts or YouTube). Table 1 summarises the descriptive statistics
for the number of fans and the number of posts for the candidates who had
Facebook accounts.

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How political candidates’ use of Facebook relates to the election outcomes

The other variables, such as the candidates’ political parties, their

constituent cities and incumbent status, were collected from the Central
Election Commission of Taiwan. In total, 84 candidates were from one of
the three different political parties or were not affiliated with a given party.
On average, each municipality had 3.82 candidates running in the mayoral
election with 22 municipalities in total. Thirteen candidates were
incumbents and running for re-election within the same cities they
originally served. The number of eligible voters for each city was also
collected from Central Election Commission of Taiwan.
Table 1  Summary statistics of the candidates’ social media presence

Number of
Types candidates Mean SE Min. Max.
Likes of Facebook page 40 101,941.8 179,430.6 63 779,867
Followers of personal profile 13 3,906.8 2,554.2 213 7,739
Members of group  2 1,906.5 191.5 1,715 2,098
Posts on Facebook page 40 349.85 224.32 0 686
Posts on personal profile 13 289 178.52 6 576
Posts on group  2 161.5 55.5 106 217
Note: The number of candidates without a Facebook presence is 29; the number of Facebook pages that
have a verification badge is 24.

Results
The current research tested the relationship between the characteristics
of candidates’ social media (Facebook) use and their election results. The
units of analysis are mayoral candidates nested within the cities where they
were running for public office. The election results used for the dependent
variables are specified as the vote share and overall election outcomes
(win or lose) in multilevel regressions and multilevel logistic regressions,
respectively. Using a multilevel approach allows for variation in the
response that is due to the unobserved characteristics of the cities and
their mayoral competitions. The independent variables are social media
presence and characteristics of candidates’ Facebook accounts, such as its
type, the verification badge, the number of fans and the number of posts.
Candidates’ incumbent status, political party affiliation and the number of
eligible voters within the city where they were running for public office
were also included as controls. A log transformation was performed for
the number of fans, the number of posts and number of eligible voters to
reduce the skew of the data.
Table 2 shows the estimation results for the multilevel regression where
vote share is the dependent variable. Model 1 presents the results for a

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regression in which only the control variables are included. The coefficient
for the incumbent status suggests that incumbents have advantages over
challengers during elections. Model 2 focuses on the candidates’ social
media presence. A dummy variable is included that takes the value of 1
when the candidate has a Facebook presence and 0 when the candidate has
no Facebook presence. This coefficient suggests that having a Facebook
presence relates to the candidate’s vote share in a statistically significant
manner at the 0.1% level.
Models 3, 4, 5 and 6 investigate the Facebook characteristics of the
candidates who had Facebook accounts and the activity on the account from
both fans and the candidates. In Model 3, the Type variable is categorical and
takes the value of 1 when the candidate has a Facebook page, 2 when the
candidate has a Facebook profile, and 3 when the candidate has a Facebook
group. The negative and significant sign of the Type coefficient indicates that

Table 2  Multilevel regression results predicting vote share

Variables Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 Model 6

Intercept 0.25 0.08 0.79 1.20 1.31* 1.28*
(0.52) (0.49) (0.71) (0.75) (0.64) (0.65)
Party –0.07 0.00 –0.01 0.05 0.07 0.07
(0.05) (0.05) (0.07) (0.08) (0.07) (0.07)
Incumbent 0.35** 0.31** 0.32* 0.26 0.28* 0.26*
(0.14) (0.13) (0.16) (0.17) (0.14) (0.15)
Log (eligible voters) 0.01 –0.01 –0.01 –0.10 –0.16** –0.15**
(0.04) (0.04) (0.05) (0.06) (0.06) (0.06)
Social media presence 0.34***
(0.1)
Type –0.23* 0.06 0.08
(0.12) (0.13) (0.13)
Verification 0.60*** 0.36* 0.39*
(0.17) (0.19) (0.2)
Log (number of fans) 0.08* 0.08*
(0.04) (0.05)
Log (number of posts) –0.03
(0.05)
Number of observation 84 84 55 40 55 55
Number of city 22 22 22 22 22 22
AIC 115.12 109.08 98.65 71.09 93.71 99.69
BIC 129.41 125.67 112.04 81.98 110.55 118.19
LogLik –51.56 –47.54 –42.33 –28.55 –37.85 –39.85
*p < 0.1; **p < 0.05; ***p < 0.01

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How political candidates’ use of Facebook relates to the election outcomes

the vote share is significantly different for candidates depending on the type
of Facebook accounts they have. Results suggest that there is a more positive
relationship between candidates use of a Facebook page and their vote shares
than when they use a Facebook profile or a Facebook group.
The relationship between the verification badge and vote shares is
also assessed. Only candidates with a Facebook page have the option of
obtaining a verification badge next to their names. Thus, Model 4 analyses
data for the 40 candidates who have a Facebook page. The results suggest
that candidates’ use of a verification badge is positively related to their
vote share at the 0.2% level of significance. Model 5 includes a measure of
the total number of fans for the candidates to a model that also includes
the characteristics of the Facebook account and other controls. The log
(fan) coefficient is positive and statistically significant, suggesting that
the number of likes, followers or group members is positively related to
the vote share. Model 6 adds the number of posts that candidates had
over the year before the elections to the variables included in Model 5.
Results suggest that the log (the number of posts) coefficient did not have
a statistically significant relationship with vote share.
The probability of candidates’ success in their election was also considered
using a multilevel logistic regression. The dependent variable takes the value
of 1 when the candidate was elected or 0 when the candidate was not elected
within the municipality. The same independent variables from Table 2 were
included in these models, except for the social media presence variable
(Model 3 in Table 2), as none of the candidates without a Facebook presence
won the election. These results appear in Table 3.
The results from Models 7 to 11 are similar to those for the models for vote
share. Model 7 presents the results for the logistic regression model in which
only control variables are included. Model 8 considers the different types of
Facebook accounts that candidates had. The significant negative coefficient
indicates that there is a more positive relationship between candidates’ use
of a Facebook page and them winning the election than if they were to use
either a Facebook profile or a Facebook group. Model 9 focuses on the 40
candidates with a Facebook page account, and includes a variable accounting
for whether or not they had a verification badge. The coefficient suggests
that candidates’ verification of their Facebook page relates to them winning
the election in a statistically significant manner at the 0.5% level. Model 10
includes the candidates’ total number of fans in the model. The significant
positive coefficient suggests that increases in the number of likes, followers
or group members positively relates to candidates’ probability of winning the
election. The number of posts is included in Model 11. The coefficient for

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Table 3  Multilevel logistic regression results predicting election success

Variables Model 7 Model 8 Model 9 Model 10 Model 11

Intercept –1.16 1.60 4.32 6.36 5.86
(2.95) (3.28) (4.16) (4.17) (4.32)
Party –0.44 –0.09 0.43 0.46 0.45
(0.31) (0.34) (0.5) (0.5) (0.51)
Incumbent 1.51* 1.38* 1.52 1.63* 1.59*
(0.69) (0.76) (0.97) (0.96) (0.96)
Log (eligible voters) 0.06 –0.05 –0.60* –1.26** –1.22**
(0.22) (0.24) (0.36) (0.51) (0.5)
Type –1.19* 0.75 0.96
(0.66) (0.93) (1)
Verification 3.44*** 1.89 2.07*
(1.22) (1.18) (1.24)
Log (number of fans) 0.70* 0.76**
(0.36) (0.38)
Log (number of posts) –0.19
(0.33)
Number of observation 84 55 40 55 55
Number of city 22 22 22 22 22
AIC 95.70 77.50 52.20 64.90 66.60
BIC 107.90 89.50 62.30 81.00 84.60
LogLik –42.90 –32.70 –20.10 –24.40 –24.30
*p < 0.1; **p < 0.05; ***p < 0.01

the number of posts made on the account is not significant, suggesting there
is no significant relationship between the number of activities a candidate
engages on their Facebook account and their winning the election.
In summary, analyses of both vote share and electoral victory present
similar results. Results suggest that having a social media presence, using
a Facebook page rather than a Facebook profile or a Facebook group,
verifying one’s Facebook page and increasing the number of fans on one’s
Facebook account are each related to the candidates’ share of the votes and
their probability of winning the election.

Discussion
The study investigates the relationship between the political use of social
media and candidates’ election outcomes by investigating the social media
presence of mayoral candidates in the 2014 Taiwanese municipal elections.
Results suggest that candidates with an online social media presence are
more likely than candidates without a social media presence to have a greater

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share of the votes and win the election. The choice of the type of Facebook
account that the candidate uses is also related to their election outcomes.
Specifically, candidates with a Facebook page tend to have both a higher
vote share and a higher chance of winning the election than candidates with
other types of Facebook account. Among all candidates with a Facebook
page, their authenticity (verification badge) related to their probability of
winning the election by 31.19% (exp[3.44]) and related to 60% increases in
their vote share. The results also suggest that there is a significant positive
relationship between the number of fans that candidates have and their
election outcomes. Together these results suggest that decisions and actions
that candidates make to manage their social media online presence in more
professional and authentic ways relate to meaningful election outcomes.
Current results also reinforce the findings of previous research, as
candidates’ incumbent status provides them with a strong advantage in
elections regardless of how they use social media. Incumbents, or the
current holders of a political office, routinely win re-election (Gerber 1998)
and have had an 80% success rate over the past 50 years (Opensecrets.org
2015). Results from the current research support these findings, even when
controlling for the characteristics of a candidate’s Facebook use.

Scholarly and administrative (managerial) implications

The study’s results have a few specific scholarly and administrative
implications. First, the results suggest that a candidate’s use of Facebook
relates to better election outcomes, specifically in the form of their vote
share and whether or not they won the election. Second, the results also
show that the amount of online support a candidate receives relates to
their election outcomes, suggesting that visible support on social media
(Facebook) might represent or echo the support that the candidate actually
has among their possible constituents. It is possible that this information
could signal a candidate’s legitimacy in a manner that could influence
other voters through processes of online social influence. This suggestion
is speculative in nature and should be considered further in future research.
It is also possible that the use of Facebook and the number of fans a
candidate has on their Facebook account correlates with individuals’ voting
behaviours, as a mere reflection of political discussions occurring offline.
Perhaps the fan representations on candidates’ Facebook accounts are not
representative of the voting population(s) or maybe the voting populations
perceive online fans as extreme activists and dismiss their support as
non-representative. It is also possible that other forms of media or overall

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campaign spending could explain non-causal correlations between the

variables. On the other hand, it is also possible that online support for
candidates on social media could directly impact potential voters through
processes of social influence. These possibilities should be clarified in future
research that examines and tests the possible explanatory mechanisms.
Thus, future research should seek to explore, test and explain how, why
and when candidates’ presence and visible social support on social media
(and Facebook) relates to their success in elections. This research should
also consider possible explanations such as other communication channels,
candidate reputation, national political considerations, demographic
characteristics of the voters, and the campaign budget, or to evaluate these
elements as important contingencies.
Third, the current results suggest that both the type of account that
candidates use and whether or not they verify these accounts relates to
their election outcomes. It is possible that the type of account selected
and whether or not they verify these accounts presents the candidate as
being more professional and/or authentic. Future research should test
how the use of these different types of account might explain differences
in voter perceptions of the candidate and if these perceptions explain
whether a candidate’s use of a specific type of Facebook account and/or
the verification of this account relates to the candidate’s election outcomes.
Given the relatively recent emergence of social media as an important
channel of political communication, and the relatively cost-efficient nature
of social media as a marketing/communication channel, political candidates
with very different amounts of financial campaign support would benefit
from more detailed knowledge on how to effectively manage their online
social media presence.
Finally, the non-significant result for the number of posts on the social media
site might also benefit from further investigation. This unclear relationship
could be explained by the possibility that political candidates increase their
online activities by posting short messages or by posting irrelevant photos
in addition to legitimate political messages. It was observed that some
candidates repeatedly posted short messages (e.g. ‘good morning’, ‘good
afternoon’ and ‘good evening’) or several selfies (self-portrait photographs)
every day. Variance in the post content (e.g. political vs personal content),
the length of messages and the type of content posted (photos, videos,
events, questions, opinions or messages) might reduce the possible impact
of each post. In this regard, research by de Vries et al. (2012) suggests that
different types of posts will impact indicators of brand popularity, such as the
number of likes, shares and comments provided by consumers. For example,

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How political candidates’ use of Facebook relates to the election outcomes

vivid and interactive brand post characteristics increase the number of likes.
Future research should seek to understand and explain how the specific
content of the posts relates to election outcomes. More specifically, it could
explore the possibility that fans could be more interested in the candidates’
political opinions on key issues as opposed to interactive questions and
content relating to the candidate’s personal life.
The administrative implications of the research are that having a
professional social media presence and authenticating that presence appear
to be important for electoral success. This presence allows constituents
and supporters to receive the candidates’ political marketing campaigns
from a trustworthy source on their news feeds. Political candidates should
proactively create professional social media accounts, authenticate (i.e.
verify) these accounts, and possibly provide enticing campaign-relevant
content to foster constituents’ relationships with the candidate.

Limitations and future directions

All research involves a balance between ideal methodological rigour
and practical considerations; this balance necessitates the disclosure of
limitations to better inform future research. In this regard, one limitation
of the current research is the use of a research design that only allows
discussions of correlation and relationships, and does not allow for causal
inferences. Future research should seek to use a variety of methods that
allow causal inferences and a closer examination of the mechanisms
and conditions that would explain how, why and when social media
(Facebook) use will impact constituent reactions and candidate success. A
second possible limitation of the research is the lack of generalisability of
the results, given that the data specifically describe Taiwanese municipal
elections in which Facebook was the only social media site popular among
the voter base. Future research should explore results across different
contexts, such as markets where voters and candidates use multiple social
media sites such as Facebook and Twitter, different types of elections (e.g.
presidential, senate and municipal elections), and different countries and
regions, as well as environments with different levels of more traditional
media such as television or radio.

Acknowledgement
The author wishes to thank Patrick Bruning for his suggestions on an
earlier version of the manuscript.

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About the author

Hsin-Chen Lin is an assistant professor of marketing at the University of
New Brunswick, Canada. She received her PhD in management, specializing
in marketing, from Purdue University’s Krannert School of Management.
Her research focuses on word of mouth, social influence, social media/viral
marketing and cross-cultural studies. It generally seeks to identify unique
and interesting patterns in word of mouth and social media marketing to
understand how marketers and individuals can best exploit these social and
technical opportunities.
Address correspondence to: Hsin-Chen Lin, Faculty of Business
Administration, University of New Brunswick, 255 Singer Hall, 7 Macaulay
Lane, Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada E3B 5A3.
Email: hc.lin@unb.ca

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