what is a “bad” hypothesis?

A. A hypothesis that incorrectly identifies a causal

factor.
B. A hypothesis that is untestable.
C. A hypothesis that only partially explains a
phenomenon.
D. A hypothesis that is not in line with current thinking
in the field.
E.All of the above.
 what is a hypothesis?
A provisional statement that proposes a possible
explanation for a particular observed
phenomenon
 what is a hypothesis?
Superstitions are primitive hypotheses.
 environmental science
we propose and test hypotheses to understand
patterns and relationships in nature, and to
understand the effects and consequences of human
activities on the environment
 good hypotheses “breed”
when tested, give rise to lots of other
hypotheses
what is a hypothesis?
A provisional statement that proposes a
possible explanation for a particular
observed phenomenon

what is a null hypothesis?

A statement of “no effect”.
Experimental results are analyzed to see whether they
support the (alternate) hypothesis or the null.
what is a hypothesis?
HA: Cigarette smoking increases the probability of
developing certain types of lung cancer.

what is a null hypothesis?

H0: Cigarette smoking has no effect on the
probability of developing certain types of lung
cancer.
Predictions
what you expect to happen if your hypothesis is true (in
terms of measurable results)

IF cigarette smoking increases the probability of

developing certain types of lung cancer, THEN the
incidence of lung cancer should be higher in a group of
heavy, lifetime smokers than in a comparable group of
non-smokers.
Predictions give rise to study
designs
Compare the incidence of lung cancer in a
group of 1,000 males 65-70 years of age
who have smoked for at least 20 years to a
group of 1,000 males 65-70 years of age
who have never smoked.
good study designs:

• have adequate samples sizes

• are unbiased
• are achievable
• have some kind of comparison (to a relevant
control group, to previous conditions, etc.)
• are ethical
a good hypothesis is
SMART
S = Specific
M = Measurable
A = Achievable
R = Realistic
T = Time-Bound

what is a “bad” hypothesis?

 unfalsifiable hypothesis
“Belugas in the St Laurence River are
dying because it is part of God’s plan.”
 untestable hypothesis
“The belugas are dying because they are
susceptible to an undetectable radio frequency that
is being picked up in their fat cells which disrupts
their endocrine system.”
 “out-there” hypotheses:
you better have a water-tight argument and
a boat-load of evidence!!
 Correlation is not causation!
be careful if you can’t imagine a
mechanism for the relationship…….
a good hypothesis..
 observations:
• Effluent from tar sands tailings ponds contains
carcinogenic chemicals.
• Wildlife living around tailings ponds can absorb these
carcinogens.
• People are hunting and eating wildlife that live around
tailings ponds.
a good hypothesis..
HA: exposure to carciogens from the tar sands via the
consumption of contaminated wildlife increases the
probability of developing cancer of the bile duct.

H0: exposure to chemicals from the tar sands via the

consumption of contaminated wildlife has no effect on the
probability of developing cancer of the bile duct.
a good prediction..
If exposure to chemicals from the tar sands via the
consumption of contaminated wildlife increases the
probability of developing cancer of the bile duct, then
people who consume wildlife contaminated with tar sands
chemicals will have a higher rate of bile dict cancer than
those who do not consume contaminated wildlife.
How would you design a study to test
this hypothesis?
“what if my hypothesis is
wrong?”
A hypothesis doesn’t have to be “right” to
be valuable...
“If you are not
prepared to be wrong,
you'll never come up
with anything original.”

― Ken Robinson