Voice displacement model

Prediction Model |Process

Modelling base

Exploratory data analysis

Top 3 Deciles Output:
Information value

Clustering
XXXX XXXY XXXZ YYYY
88855333 81795499 86345433 89654321
Collinearity test 0.75 0.72 0.71 0.70

Regression

Variable significance

Validation
Voice displacement model| Analysis & Prediction window definition

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7
Voice – Revenue Model

Development
Analysis Prediction
window window

Out of time
Analysis Prediction
window window

Analysis Window: The period for which customer behavior is observed to predict his potential behavior
Prediction Window: The period for which the customer behavior is predicted
Voice displacement model | Target Setting
Base definition: Identified High value subscribers (Excluding HHHL segment)

Analysis Window Prediction Window

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6
Voice displacement Model

Active status RGS RGS RGS RGS RGS RGS

Voice user status Voice revenue segment: MVC2 and above Voice user Voice user

Total revenue Avg of total revenue in M5/M6 should be lower than Avg. of
variance M1/M2/M3/M4

Voice revenue
M5 Revenue 30% lower than M6 Revenue 30% lower than
Continuous
average of M1/M2/M3/M4 average of M1/M2/M3/M4
Displacement

M5 usage 10% lower than M6 usage 10% lower than

-ve displacement
average of M1/M2/M3/M4 average of M1/M2/M3/M4

Period 1
Base size 14,47,863
Target size 2,40,684
Target Rate 16.62%
Revenue displaced ₹ 26M
Voice displacement model | Exploratory data analysis
Roaming

IDD
Last 7 days
Fixed

Off-Net Recharge

On-Net Quality Usage/

Roaming Time # Session
CUG Penetration Sessions
IDD Usage/
OG Usage
Fixed
Voice Users Usage Days
Off-Net
Days
On-Net Usage/
IC User
Roaming
Voice Usage Value/
IDD
Off-Net Recharge Trans
On-Net Revenue/ Yield Value
CUG 800+ variables Revenue/ Usage
SMS Days
used for Revenue User

prediction
Data
LTE 3G 2G FBI
models Balance Average
Balance
Stock
Zero
Balance
Bal Days

DPI Market
Social Share Base
Com Share Gross
Tools Share
Net to
Media &
File Channel Gross Quality
Video Content
Sharing
Others Activations
Content 1

Content2 Quality
Content 3
Throughput
Content 4 Tenure
Recharge
Content 5 value
Forfeiture Recharge
count
Handset
duality
Stock
balance
Voice displacement model | Information Value
Information Value(IV) is the one of the effective methods of variable selection for a model. The IV was generated for all the
800+ variables, thereby determining the significant variables to be used for analysis

The top IV variables are as follows

Variable names IV
L1A_TOT_OGVCE_USG 0.1956
Voice displacement Model

L1A_TOT_VCELOC_USG 0.1887
L1A_TOT_OGLOC_USG_BY_UD 0.1719
L1A_TOT_VCEOG_USG_BY_UD 0.1659
L1A_TOT_OGLOC_REV 0.1646
L1A_TOT_VCEOG_REV 0.1479
L1A_TOT_OGLOC_REV_BY_UD 0.1145
L1A_VCE_OGLOCONN_USG 0.1039
L1A_TOT_AL_REV 0.1038
L1A_VCE_OGLOCOFF_USG 0.1012
L1A_TOT_AL_REV_BY_UD 0.0986
L1A_TOT_VCEOG_REV_BY_UD 0.0963
VCE_OGLOCONN_UD 0.0910
L1A_VCE_OGLOCONN_UD 0.0876
L1A_TOT_OGLOC_UD 0.0858
AVG_REC_CNT 0.0843
HAS_STATIC_14 0.0634
Voice displacement model | Significant Variables

Average Recharge count of M1, M2, M3 & M4

Ratio of M4 by Average of M1-M4 Total Revenue by usage

days
Voice displacement Model

Ratio of M4 by Average of M1-M4 Total Outgoing Voice

usage

Ratio of 7 days by Average of M1-M4 Voice Outgoing

usage

Average Voice Outgoing On net usage days of M1, M2,

M3 & M4

14 days Static balance status in M4

Voice displacement Model |Avg Recharge Count of M1,M2,M3,M4

14% 25%

12%
20.1% 20.2% 19.8% 19.7%20%
19.1%
10% 18.2%
Voice displacement Model

Displacement Rate(%)
Customer Base(%) 15.5% 15%
8% 14.4%

11.4%
6%
10%

7.8%
4%

5%
2%

0% 0%
0 to 2 2.25 to 3 to 3.75 4 to 4.5 4.75 to 6 to 7.25 7.5 to 10 to 14 14.25 to 22.75 to
2.75 5.75 9.75 22.5 183
Customer Base(%) Displacement Rate(%) Avg. Displacement Rate(%)

Subscribers with high Recharge count have higher propensity to displace on voice revenue.
Voice displacement Model | Ratio of M4 /Avg M1..M4 on Total rev / usage days
10% 35%

30%
10% 28.6%

25%
10%

Displacement Rate(%)
Voice displacement Model

Customer Base(%)
20.4% 20%
10% 18.1%
16.8%
15.0% 14.6% 15%
13.9% 13.1%
13.1% 13.0%
10%
10%

10%
5%

10% 0%
0 to 0.78 to 0.86 to 0.93 to 0.98 to 1.03 to 1.08 to 1.14 to 1.22 to 1.34 to
0.78 0.86 0.93 0.98 1.03 1.08 1.14 1.22 1.34 17.26
Customer Base(%) Displacement Rate(%) Avg. Displacement Rate(%)

Subscribers with low ratio of M4 by Average of M1-M4 Total Revenue by usage days have
higher propensity to displace on voice revenue.
Voice displacement model | Ratio of M4/M1..M4 on OG Voice usage
10% 35%

10% 32.1%
30%
10%

10% 25%
Voice displacement Model

23.4%

Displacement Rate(%)
Customer Base(%) 10%
20%
19.0%
10%
16.4%
14.9% 15%
10% 13.7%
12.1% 12.0% 11.9%
10% 11.0%
10%

10%
5%
10%

10% 0%
0 to 0.83 to 1.03 to 1.15 to 1.25 to 1.35 to 1.45 to 1.57 to 1.73 to 2.02 to
0.83 1.03 1.15 1.25 1.35 1.45 1.57 1.73 2.02 4
Customer Base(%) Displacement Rate(%) Avg. Displacement Rate(%)

Subscribers with low ratio of M4 by Average of M1-M4 Total Outgoing Voice

usage have higher propensity to displace on voice revenue.
Voice displacement model | Ratio of last 7 days by Avg of M1..M4 Voice usage

10% 35%

31.0%
10% 30%

10% 25%

Displacement Rate(%)
Voice displacement Model

23.2%

Customer Base(%)
21.9%
10% 20%
18.7%

10% 15.4% 15%

14.1%
11.7% 11.1%
10% 10.3% 10%
9.1%

10% 5%

10% 0%
0 to 0.2 0.2 to 0.54 to 0.76 to 0.93 to 1.08 to 1.25 to 1.44 to 1.69 to 2.16 to
0.54 0.76 0.93 1.08 1.25 1.44 1.69 2.16 15.31
Customer Base(%) Displacement Rate(%) Avg. Displacement Rate(%)

Subscribers with low ratio of 7 days by Average of M1-M4 Voice Outgoing

Voice usage have higher propensity to displace on voice revenue.
Voice displacement Model | Avg Voice Onnet usage days of M1, M2,M3, M4

16% 25%

22.8%
14%
21.3%
19.9% 20%
12% 18.7%
17.8%
Voice displacement Model

Displacement Rate(%)
15.9%

Customer Base(%)
10%
15.1% 15%
13.3%
8%
11.9%
10.7%
10%
6%

4%
5%
2%

0% 0%
0 to 6.2 7.23 to 12.4 to 16.53 to 19.63 to 23.77 to 25.83 to 27.9 to 29.97 to 31 to 31
11.37 15.5 18.6 22.73 24.8 26.87 28.93 29.97
Customer Base(%) Displacement Rate(%) Avg. Displacement Rate(%)

Subscribers with low Voice Outgoing Voice Onnet usage days have higher
propensity to displace on Voice revenue.
Voice displacement model | 14 static balance in M4

70% 25%

60%
20%
19.2%
50%
Voice displacement Model

Displacement Rate(%)
Customer Base(%)

15%
40%

12.3%
30%
10%

20%

5%
10%

0% 0%
0 1
Customer Base(%) Displacement Rate(%) Avg. Displacement Rate(%)

Subscribers with non-static balance for 14 days have higher propensity to

displace on voice revenue.
Voice displacement Model| Pearson Correlation Coefficients

Pearson Correlation L1A_TOT_AL_REV_ R_TM_H_VOC_OG_LO

AVG_REC_CNT L1A_TOT_OGVCE_USG VCE_OGLOCONN_UD
Coefficients BY_UD C_7
Voice displacement Model

AVG_REC_CNT 1.00 -0.07 0.00 -0.02 -0.01

L1A_TOT_AL_REV_BY_UD -0.07 1.00 0.37 0.22 -0.01

L1A_TOT_OGVCE_USG 0.00 0.37 1.00 0.55 0.13

R_TM_H_VOC_OG_LOC_7 -0.02 0.22 0.55 1.00 0.09

VCE_OGLOCONN_UD -0.01 -0.01 0.13 0.09 1.00

Voice displacement Model| Model Performance Statistics

Model Statistics Dev. Val.

1st Decile Capture 21.50% 21.60%

Voice displacement Model

1st Decile Lift 2.15 2.15

1st Decile Displacement Rate 35.80% 35.80%

AUC 0.671 0.676

Chi-SQ GoF 15.15 16.66

Concordance 66.80% 67.30%

Voice displacement Model| Beta Estimates

Beta Estimate Beta Estimate Beta Ratio

Variable
(Development) (Validation) (Development/Validation)

Intercept 0.53 0.51 1.03

Voice displacement Model

AVG_REC_CNT 0.01 0.01 1.01

DV_L1A_TOT_AL_REV_BY_UD -0.68 -0.76 0.89

DV_L1A_TOT_OGVCE_USG -0.92 -0.91 1.01

DV_R_TM_H_VOC_OG_LOC_7 -1.09 -1.13 0.96

HAS_STATIC_14 0.27 0.28 0.98

HAS_VCS_USG 0.38 0.40 0.94

VCE_OGLOCONN_UD -0.02 -0.02 0.99

Voice displacement Model | Model Lift – Training Base

% Cum
% Displacement % Cum % Cum Non- % Cum Rev
Decile # Subs Displacement Separation Rev Loss
Rate Displacers Displacers Loss
Rate

1 14478 35.80% 35.80% 21.50% 7.70% 13.80% 636014 24.08%

Voice displacement Model

2 14479 26.20% 31.00% 37.30% 16.50% 20.80% 433525 40.49%

3 14479 21.00% 27.70% 49.90% 26.00% 23.90% 340909 53.40%
4 14478 18.20% 25.30% 60.90% 35.80% 25.00% 281910 64.07%
5 14479 15.10% 23.30% 70.00% 46.00% 23.90% 230985 72.82%
6 14479 13.40% 21.60% 78.00% 56.40% 21.60% 200833 80.42%
7 14478 11.90% 20.20% 85.20% 67.00% 18.20% 170262 86.87%
8 14479 10.00% 19.00% 91.20% 77.80% 13.50% 137860 92.09%
9 14479 8.18% 17.80% 96.20% 88.80% 7.39% 116341 96.49%
10 14479 6.38% 16.60% 100.00% 100.00% 0.00% 92643 100.00%
144787 16.62% 2641282

Top 3 deciles capture 51% of the displacement loss – Need to target subs on Top 3 deciles
Voice displacement Model | Model Lift – Validation Base

% Cum
% Displacement % Cum % Cum Non- % Cum Rev
Decile # Subs Displacement Separation Rev Loss
Rate Displacers Displacers Loss
Rate

1 14478 35.80% 35.80% 21.60% 7.70% 13.90% 639194 24.21%

Voice displacement Model

2 14479 26.70% 31.20% 37.60% 16.50% 21.10% 431357 40.55%

3 14479 22.10% 28.20% 50.90% 25.80% 25.10% 339205 53.40%
4 14478 18.10% 25.70% 61.80% 35.70% 26.20% 283320 64.13%
5 14479 15.30% 23.60% 71.00% 45.80% 25.20% 229830 72.83%
6 14479 13.20% 21.90% 79.00% 56.20% 22.80% 199829 80.40%
7 14478 11.30% 20.40% 85.80% 66.90% 18.90% 171113 86.88%
8 14479 9.26% 19.00% 91.40% 77.70% 13.60% 137171 92.08%
9 14479 7.90% 17.80% 96.10% 88.80% 7.32% 116923 96.51%
10 14479 6.47% 16.60% 100.00% 100.00% 0.00% 92180 100.00%
144787 16.62% 2640121

Top 3 deciles capture 51% of the displacement loss – Need to target subs on Top 3 deciles
Voice displacement Model | Model Lift – Holdout Sample

% Cum
% Displacement % Cum % Cum Non- % Cum Rev
Decile # Subs Displacement Separation Rev Loss
Rate Displacers Displacers Loss
Rate

1 115828 35.80% 35.80% 21.50% 7.70% 13.80% 5165422 24.40%

Voice displacement Model

2 115829 26.00% 30.90% 37.20% 16.60% 20.60% 3325742 40.11%

3 115829 21.40% 27.80% 50.10% 26.00% 24.10% 2671022 52.72%
4 115829 18.00% 25.30% 60.90% 35.80% 25.10% 2213348 63.18%
5 115829 15.50% 23.40% 70.30% 46.00% 24.30% 1884063 72.08%
6 115829 13.40% 21.70% 78.30% 56.40% 21.90% 1633326 79.79%
7 115829 11.50% 20.20% 85.20% 67.00% 18.20% 1387694 86.35%
8 115829 9.89% 18.90% 91.20% 77.80% 13.40% 1187039 91.95%
9 115829 8.17% 17.70% 96.10% 88.80% 7.28% 969233 96.53%
10 115829 6.53% 16.60% 100.00% 100.00% 0.00% 734145 100.00%
1158289 16.62% 21171034

Top 3 deciles capture 51% of the displacement loss – Need to target subs on Top 3 deciles
Thank You!