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Predictive model for early math skills based on structural equations

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Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 2016, 57, 489–494 DOI: 10.1111/sjop.12317

Cognition and Neurosciences

Predictive model for early math skills based on structural equations

1 JOSE
EST
IBALIZ ARAGON,
I. NAVARRO,1 MANUEL AGUILAR,1 GAMAL CERDA2 and MANUEL GARC
IA-SEDENO
~ 1
1
Department of Psychology, University of Cadiz, Puerto Real-Cadiz, Spain
2
Department of Methodology of Research, University of Concepcion, Concepcion, Chile

Arag
on, E., Navarro, J. I., Aguilar, M., Cerda, G. & Garc
ıa-Sede~

no, M. (2016). Predictive model for early math skills based on structural equations.
Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 57, 489–494.

Early math skills are determined by higher cognitive processes that are particularly important for acquiring and developing skills during a child’s early
education. Such processes could be a critical target for identifying students at risk for math learning difficulties. Few studies have considered the use of a
structural equation method to rationalize these relations. Participating in this study were 207 preschool students ages 59 to 72 months, 108 boys and 99
girls. Performance with respect to early math skills, early literacy, general intelligence, working memory, and short-term memory was assessed. A
structural equation model explaining 64.3% of the variance in early math skills was applied. Early literacy exhibited the highest statistical significance
(b = 0.443, p < 0.05), followed by intelligence (b = 0.286, p < 0.05), working memory (b = 0.220, p < 0.05), and short-term memory (b = 0.213,
p < 0.05). Correlations between the independent variables were also significant (p < 0.05). According to the results, cognitive variables should be included
in remedial intervention programs.
Key words: Early childhood education, early literacy, mathematical cognition, early mathematics.
Est
ıbaliz Arag
on, Department of Psychology, University of Cadiz, 11510 Puerto Real-Cadiz, Spain. Tel: +34-956 016563; fax: +34-956 01 64 19;
e-mail: estivaliz.aragon@uca.es

INTRODUCTION early literacy skills are a factor in the development of early

The prevalence of specific learning disability among school-age
children is 5% to 15%, according to the DSM-5 (APA, 2013), and
the prevalence of math learning difficulties (MLDs) in particular is
5% to 9% (Geary, 2011). Students with MLD often exhibit a
characteristic cognitive pattern of being unable to adequately solve
mathematical problems and calculations and of having math skills
that do not correspond to their age or their year in school (Fuchs,
Fuchs, Powell, Seethaler, Cirino & Fletcher, 2008). Several
possible hypotheses might explain the emergence of MLD (No€el,
Rousselle & Visscher, 2014), including those that focus on deficits
in specific domain processes. Along these lines is work by
Butterworth and Reigosa-Crespo (2007) and Wilson and Dehaene
(2007), who considered that MLD is caused by a general
malfunction modifying representation of numerical magnitudes.
Meanwhile, Rousselle and No€el (2007) posited that MLD arises
from difficulty in comprehending the representation of numerical
quantities from the symbolic codes.
Another set of hypotheses references deficits in general domain
cognitive processes, such as working memory and its different
mechanisms (Friso-van den Bos, Kroesbergen & van Luit, 2014;
Passolunghi & Lanfranchi, 2012), intelligence (Dodonova &
Dodonov, 2012), or literacy (Arag
on, Navarro, Aguilar & Cerda,
2015). Early literacy has been associated with early math skills in
several works because of overlap in difficulties in mathematics
and reading (Barbaresi, Katusic, Colligan, Weaver & Jacobsen,
2005). Hypothetical rationalization for the extensive relations
between these subjects include cognitive (Rohde & Thompson,
2007), genetic (Hart, Petrill, Thompson & Plomin, 2009), and
environmental links (Anders, Rossbach, Weinert et al., 2012;
Melhuish, Phan, Sylva, Sammons, Siraj-Blatchford & Taggart,
2008). Research from cognitive psychology has suggested that
numeracy (McClelland, Cameron, Connor, Farris, Jewkes &
Morrison, 2007; Kleemans, Peeters, Segers & Verhoeven, 2012).
Carey (2004) suggests that verbal issues play a role in the
development of number concepts through early experience of
relevant language (Hodent, Bryant & Houde, 2005) and
subsequently through integration of the number word sequence
with symbolic representations of small sets of items. “During the
preschool years, quantity discrimination, basic arithmetic and
counting abilities become integrated within children’s increasing
language skills to produce verbal counting ability” (cited by
Norwalk, DiPerma & Lei, 2014, p. 87). This current study shares
this second group of hypotheses, considering the deficits in
general domain cognitive processes. For understanding MLD, it is
necessary to know the precise cognitive processes underlying
early mathematical learning in typically developing children.
Early math skills are controlled by higher cognitive processes
that are especially important for the acquisition and development
of skills when children first enter school (Mi~ nano & Castej
on,
2011; Navarro, Aguilar, Alcalde, Ruiz, Marchena & Menacho,
2011). The importance of general cognitive abilities in MLD is
supported by the definition of MLD and developmental
dyscalculia (DD). Rubinsten and Henik (2009) use the term DD to
describe deficits in basic numerical skills, such as the processing
of a quantity of items. The term MLD also is used to refer to
numeracy difficulties that arise from a deficit in certain general
cognitive abilities such as attention, working memory, and
visuospatial processing. It is relevant to consider the role of
cognitive processes related to math performance at early ages
because these processes can be a critical aspect of identifying
students at risk for MLD (Duncan, Claessens, Huston et al., 2007;


Gonz
alez-Castro, Rodriguez, Cueli, Cabeza & Alvarez, 2014).
Consequently, procedures to prevent deficits in mathematical skills

© 2016 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd
490 E. Arag
on et al.
should include interventions that enhance cognitive abilities
(Cerda, P
erez, Navarro, Aguilar, Casas & Arag
on, 2015).
In recent years, researchers have focused on the study of
factors involved in math skill in early childhood (Cirino, 2011;
Kleemans, Segers & Verhoeven, 2011; Kytt€al€a, Aunio &
€
Hautam€aki, 2010; Ostergren & Tr€aff, 2013; Passolunghi &
Lanfranchi, 2012). It is necessary to consider the isolated role of
cognitive skills when analyzing the contribution of these
indicators to variabilities in math skills. Nevertheless, it is also
important to examine these factors as they interact with other
variables, thus indirectly influencing the acquisition of math skills.
Therefore, in this study, variables that research has defined as
being related to early numeracy, such as working memory, short-
term memory, intelligence, and early literacy, were evaluated.
Several studies have explored the role of cognitive processes in
arithmetic (Nunes, Bryant, Barros & Sylva, 2012) while other
studies have emphasized the role in language skills (Nevo &
Breznitz, 2013; Tr€aff, 2013) and mathematics (Alloway &
Passolunghi, 2011; Kytt€al€a, Kanerva & Kroesbergen, 2015; Purpura
& Ganley, 2014). Baddeley (2000) considered short-term memory
to be a component of the working memory that contributes to
variability in early math skills (No€el, 2009; Swanson & Kim, 2007).
It is also important to consider the role of intelligence in acquiring
numerical knowledge as well as the relationship between
intelligence and both working memory and short-term memory
(Colom, Rebollo, Abad & Shih, 2006; Kytt€al€a & Lehto, 2008;
Tillman, Nyberg & Bohlin, 2008). Intelligence contributes to the
acquisition, understanding, and organizing of new information and
establishes the bases for early learning and for the consolidation of
concepts (Kvist & Gustafson, 2008). Therefore, intelligence could
be an influence on the development of mathematical skills
(Dodonova & Dodonov, 2012; Gullick, Sprute & Temple, 2011).
Finally, factors associated with language skills, such as
phonological awareness, knowledge of the written code, and skills
related to oral language, are considered to be linked to early math
skills (Kleemans et al., 2011; Sarama, Lange, Clements & Wolfe,
2012). As a result, the dynamic learning mechanism should be
similar with respect to both language and math skills (Betts,
Pickart & Heistad, 2009; Purpura, Hume, Sims & Lonigan, 2011).
Koponen, Aunola, Ahonen, and Nurmi (2007) demonstrated that
reading fluency and calculation processes require similar storage
and retrieval of verbal and verbal–visual associations. Moreover,
specific reading skills, such as letter knowledge and phonological
factors, are associated with covariance between reading and
simple arithmetic tasks, leading to significant correlations between
the two skills (Cirino, 2011). The current research focused on the
role of early literacy in explaining the acquisition of early math
skills, but the relation between early literacy and other variables
also has been treated as a factor. Such variables include working
memory (Van der Sluis, de Jong & Van der Leij, 2007), short-
term memory (Majerus & Boukebza, 2013), intelligence
_
(Rajchert, Zułtak & Smulczyk, 2014; Van Tilborg, Segers, Van
Balkom & Verhoeven, 2014), and early literacy (Cirino, 2011;
LeFevre, Fast, Skwarchuk et al., 2010).
One method for studying these relations is using structural
equation models (SEMs), which generally rely on an assumption of
an influence of very few explanatory variables (Kline, 2015). This
study applies a consistent SEM in which several explanatory
© 2016 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd
Scand J Psychol 57 (2016)
variables are integrated. Considering the findings on cognitive
variables and their connection with early math skills, a explicative
theoretical model was developed. Early math skills are a function of
different interrelated factors, and an effective way to understand the
complexity of psychological processes, such as those involved in the
present study, is the multivariate analysis procedure. The main
limitation of these techniques, however, could be the difficulty in
considering more than one relation at a time (Cupani, 2012). This
study overcame this limitation by providing a SEM using multiple
indicators and multiple causes. Accordingly, this model could
provide a framework of variables that directly or indirectly influence
the acquisition of early math skills (Friso-van den Bos et al., 2014;
Toll & Van Luit, 2014). SEMs for estimating the effects and
relations among multiple variables are less restrictive than regression
models because SEM allows measurement of errors including
both criterion variables (dependent) and explanatory variables
(independent). It also allows defining direct and indirect effects
between factors and establishes or “confirms” relations between
factors considering theoretical assumptions. Because exogenous
variables can be correlated with one another, as in this study,
establishing these relations would not be possible in a conventional
€
regression model (Kline, 2015; Ostergren & Tr€aff 2013).
Consequently, our main objective was to use structural
equation modeling for examining the association between domain
general variables (i.e., short-term memory, working memory,
general intellectual ability and reading skills) and math skills in
preschool children.
METHODS
Participants
Participating in this study were 207 preschool students who ranged in age
from 59 months to 72 months (M = 65.37, SD = 3.53). Of the 207
participants, 99 were girls, and they ranged in age from 59 months to
71 months (M = 65.22, SD = 3.47). Among the 108 boys, ages ranged
from 59 months to 72 months (M = 65.51, SD = 3.60). Students attended
one of four schools, two of which were semi-private and two that were
public. All schools were located in cities of approximately 125,000
inhabitants and served a socioeconomic population regarded as middle
class. The early childhood education curriculum in Spain does not provide
explicit instructional content related to number sense (LOMCE, 2013).
Instruments
Early Numeracy Test ENT-R (Van Luit & Van de Rijt, 2009) . The ENT-
R assesses nine components of early mathematical competencies, clustered
into two categories: (1) relational skills, including comparison concepts,
classification, one-to-one correspondence, and seriation; and (2) numerical
skills, including verbal counting, structured counting, resultative counting
(counting without the need to point or touch), general number knowledge,
and estimation. A computer version of the ENT-R was used to measure
early mathematical knowledge. This test was composed of three parallel
versions of 45 items each, and each version of the test had a maximum
score of 45 points (1 point for each correct item). The ENT-R average test
application time was approximately 30 minutes, and it was administered
individually to each student. The Cronbach’s alpha was 0.90.
Get Ready to Read! Screening Tool (Whitehurst & Lonigan, 2003). This
assessment consists of 20 items for assessing early literacy. Each item
presents four response options of which only one is correct. The early
literacy level was determined by assessing knowledge of the written text
Scand J Psychol 57 (2016)
(comprehension and letter discrimination) and phonological awareness
(knowledge about rhyme, letter sounds, and word segmentation). The
Cronbach’s alpha was 0.78.
CPM. Raven’s Coloured Progressive Matrices Test (Raven, 1996) . This
classic test measures the general intelligence (g factor) of children. It
assesses the ability to make sense of disorganized or confusing material by
managing nonverbal constructs that allow for the comprehension of a
complex structure. Nonverbal intelligence reflects the ability to reason
based on figurative stimuli and regardless of cultural influences. The
Cronbach’s alpha was 0.82.
Digit Span Test. WISC-IV. Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children,
Fourth Edition (Wechsler, 2005). This test consists of two tasks. The
forward digit span task assesses phonological short-term memory while
the backward digit span task evaluates phonological working memory.
Tests consist of 8 items, and each test comprises two trials. For the digit
span forward task, the evaluator says a series of numbers that the student
repeats in the same order. For the digit span backward task, students say
the numbers in reverse order from that given by the evaluator. The
Cronbach’s alphas for the backward and forward digit span tests were 0.76
and 0.78, respectively.
Procedure and data analysis
Considering the sample and the different assessment tools used, two
evaluation sessions were conducted. Evaluators were trained in the
application of these instruments. In the first session, early literacy and
early numeracy skills were assessed. In the second session, intelligence
and memory tests were administered. All tests were conducted under
optimum conditions of applicability. The assessments, ranging from 30 to
45 minutes, were individually conducted during school hours and included
randomly distributed inter-sessions and intra-sessions.
After the principal and teachers were notified and gave their consent
and agreement to cooperate, the parents were notified by the researchers
before the evaluation began. After parents were informed about the study,
their informed consent was requested, thus complying with the ethical
standards for psychological research.
To analyze the data, the SPSS 19.0 statistical package was used, and
EQS 6.2 software was used to represent the interaction among different
Fig. 1. Preliminary model calculated through the nine components of Early Numeracy Test-R.
© 2016 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd
Math skills and cognition 491
factors. The estimation robust maximum likelihood method was applied.
Taking as reference the directions of Hu and Bentler (1999), different
indices were used to contrast the suitability of the proposed models. These
included the chi-square statistic of Satorra and Bentler, Bentler-Bonett’s
non-normed fit index (NNFI), the comparative fit index (CFI), goodness of
fit index, and root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA). With
these calculations, a model to identify the factors that influence the variance
of early math skills was obtained (Kline, 2015). Standardized coefficients of
the regression model were also analyzed and achieved an optimal fit
(adjustment ≥ 0.95 rates, RMSEA ≤ 0.05).
RESULTS
Based on the main objective of this study, a SEM was applied.
The model analyzed the relation between the latent variable and
the variables identified by updated literature as influencing early
math competence. Before the final model calculation, a
preliminary CFA was carried out. The resulting preliminary
robust model included early math skills. This latent factor was
calculated throughout the nine variables evaluated by ENT-R
(v²SB = 85.38, p = 0.01; CFI = 0.943; NNFI = 0.923; NFI =
0.846; RMSEA = 0.048; IC (0.02–0.06)) (Fig. 1). The calculated
model included early math skills (latent factor) and four
standardized variables, as presented in Table 1.
After the preliminary calculation, a second model was developed.
The latent variable for this model (according to ENT-R structure)
consisted of the two factors ‘relational skills’ and ‘numerical skills’
(v²SB = 36.25, p = 0.05; CFI = 0.96; NNFI = 0.936; NFI =
0.888; RMSEA = 0.05; IC (0.00–0.08)). To assess the model
adjustment, we employed the recommendations of Hu and Bentler
(1999). The results indicated that the model fit was v²SB = 2.47,
p = 0.29; CFI = 0.995; NNFI = 0.959; NFI = 0.987; RMSEA =
0.05; and IC (00–15) (Fig. 2). These results suggested an optimal
model because it explains 64.3% of the variance in explaining early
math skills. The standardized coefficients for the different variables
were early literacy (b = 0.443; p < 0.05), intelligence (b = 0.286;
492 E. Arag
on et al. Scand J Psychol 57 (2016)

Table 1. Mean, standard deviation (SD), and correlations of the variables included in the model

Mean SD 1 2 3 4 5 6

1. Relational tasks 11.51 3.04 1

2. Numerical tasks 9.52 4.47 0.458** 1
3. Forward Digit Span (Short-term memory) 5.65 1.36 0.194** 0.310** 1
4. Backward Digit Span (Working memory) 3.75 1.66 0.370** 0.361* 0.217** 1
5. Get Ready to Read (Early literacy) 16.57 2.49 0.423** 0.489** 0.174* 0.409** 1
6. Raven (Intelligence) 15.79 3.91 0.298** 0.410** 0.158* 0.265** 0.340** 1

Notes: **p < 0.01, *p < 0.05.

Fig. 2. Structural equation model for multiple indicators and multiple causes: proposed complex links among early literacy variables, fluid intelligence,
short-term memory, and working memory as explanatory factors of early math skills.

p < 0.05), working memory (b = 0.220; p < 0.05), and short-term
memory (b = 0.213; p < 0.05).
The correlations between the independent variables were
significant (p < 0.05). The highest correlation was between
working memory and early literacy (r = 0.409; p < 0.05). Early
literacy correlated with intelligence (r = 0.340; p < 0.05) and
short-term memory (r = 0.217; p < 0.05). Similarly, a significant
correlation between working memory and intelligence (r = 0.265;
p < 0.05) was also found. Finally, the lowest correlations were
obtained between early literacy and short-term memory
(r = 0.174; p < 0.05) and between short-term memory and
intelligence (r = 0.158; p < 0.05).
DISCUSSION
The main goal of this study was to establish a model based on
structural equation analysis that explains the impact and statistical
weight of the different cognitive factors that may influence early
math skills. Accomplishing this goal required an understanding of
the factors that explain math skills because of the importance that
these cognitive capacities have in the subsequent development of
more complex mathematical skills and abilities (Duncan et al.,
2007).
Working memory is critical for retrieving number facts and for
fluency in manipulating information and thus may explain individual
differences in math performance (Alloway, Gathercole, Adams,
€
Willis, Eaglen & Lamont, 2011; Gullick et al., 2011; Ostergren &
Tr€aff, 2013; Purpura et al., 2014). In the present study, working
memory was a significant factor in early math skills because it
directly influenced math performance in 5-year-old children.
Intelligence also emerged as a significant explanatory variable in
math skills at an early age. Consistent with previous studies (Gullick
€
et al., 2011; Ostergren & Tr€aff, 2013), our results indicated that
intelligence is related to performance in mathematics skills as well.
Finally, early literacy showed the highest statistical weight for
early math skills, suggesting a strong relation between linguistic
precursors and math (Alloway et al., 2005; Cirino, 2011). Few SEM
models integrate early literacy as an explanatory factor of math skills
acquisition. Most current models take into account only the
€
cognitive variables (Bull, Espy & Wiebe, 2008; Ostergren & Tr€aff,
2013), so the finding that early literacy has a greater weight than
other explanatory variables in this SEM model is a significant result.
Previous authors have reported significant correlations between
early literacy and intelligence and short-term memory
(Passolunghi & Lanfranchi, 2012; Van Tilborg et al., 2014; Van
Weerdenburg, Verhoeven, Van Balkom & Bosman, 2009),

© 2016 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd
Scand J Psychol 57 (2016)
including correlations between intelligence and phonological
short-term memory (Tillman et al., 2008). In addition, significant
correlations have been identified between intelligence and
working memory (Colom, Rebollo, Palacios, Juan-Espinosa &
Kyllonen, 2004). These associations may be linked to the finding
that higher proficiency levels improve semantic understanding in
children; such understanding can be generalized to numerical facts
and the role that early math skills play as a powerful influence on
later success in math (Claessens, Duncan & Engel, 2009; Duncan
et al., 2007). Accordingly, our SEM suggests that these influential
variables on math skills are essential for understanding the
connections among early literacy, working memory, short-term
memory, and intelligence in contributing to success in
mathematics. From a general perspective, it is more achievable to
identify different types of difficulties that emerge during the
learning of mathematics and to develop early interventions for
problems that may arise during the development of both
mathematical skills and the cognitive abilities that contribute to
acquiring those skills.
To conclude, in this study, the SEM identified 64.3% of the
variance in explaining early math skills. Early literacy showed the
highest statistical significance, followed by intelligence, working
memory, and short-term memory. Correlations between the
independent variables were also significant. Moreover, cognitive
variables significantly contributed to improving early math skills
and were determined to be an important influence on achievement
in successive math grades. Early math skills are a major factor in
later math success; thus, these findings regarding variables that
influence these skills are important because they contribute to an
understanding of the connections among factors that determine
success in mathematics. From a global perspective, it is
reasonable to address the different types of difficulties that can
emerge when learning mathematics and to contribute to early
interventions for problems that may arise during the development
of mathematical skills.
The study was funded by the Spanish MEC grants EDU2011-22747,
PIA-CONICYT Basal Funds for Centers of Excellence Project BF0003
and PAI, P09-HUM7918.
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Received 31 July 2015, accepted 18 June 2016