Mombasa Final Report

MOMBASA COMMUTER RAILWAYS FEASIBILITY STUDY
190 591.10 Mombasa Final Report

27th May 2014
Rev 0
KENYA RAILWAYS CORPORATION KRC

Final Report
KRC/PLM/40/2011 Mombasa Commuter Railways Feasibility Study

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Kenya Railways Corporation KRC
Mombasa Commuter Railways Feasibility Study
KRC/PLM/40/2011
Final Report
Copyright © Pöyry Switzerland Ltd.
All rights are reserved. This document or any part thereof may not be copied or repro-
duced without permission in writing from Pöyry Switzerland Ltd.
Pöyry Switzerland Ltd.

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Contact
Christian Bergerhoff
Hardturmstrasse 161, P.O. Box
CH-8037 Zurich/Switzerland
Tel. +41 44 355 55 55
Fax +41 44 355 55 56
http://www.poyry.ch
Christian Bergerhoff
Project Manager

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Pöyry Switzerland Ltd., in collaboration with GA Consultants, was appointed by Kenya

Railway Corporation (KRC) to perform a feasibility study for the development of a
modern metropolitan commuter railway network within the City of Mombasa and sur-
rounding counties. The aim was to advise on the type, nature, location and scope of an
efficient, safe, cost effective and environmentally sustainable railway system that meets
the transport demand of the region as envisaged under Vision 2030, and is expandable
to meet needs up to the year 2045 horizon.
This report evaluates the feasibility of developing this passenger railway system from
technical, socio-environmental, economic and financial perspectives.
The market study estimates present and future traffic volumes and serves as input to the
route definitions and operational concept.
The 7 key lines identified initially were adjusted on the basis of the findings of the
study, and resulted in the following 6 corridors totalling some 624 km:
Corridor 1: Mombasa – Airport – Likoni - Ramisi Corridor
Corridor 2: Mombasa – Mtwapa – Kilifi – Malindi Corridor
Corridor 3: Mombasa – Mazeras – Voi Corridor
Corridor 4: Likoni Ferry – Bamburi Corridor (Mombasa Ring Corridor)
Corridor 5: Mazeras – Kaloleni – Takaungu Corridor
Corridor 6: Malindi – Lamu Corridor
The TOR did not define any alignment standards. The study proposes design speeds
ranging from 80 km/h in the mountainous region to 120 km/h in the plain region with
the corresponding constraints for the minimum radii and maximum slope. The proposed
standards correspond to those for a commuter railway, but would also allow for light
freight traffic. A standard gauge track of 1.435 m is specified.
A single track line has been assumed initially, with 2 tracks at terminal stations and at
stations with train crossings or heavy passenger traffic. For signalling and train control
it is recommended to adopt a system based on ETCS Level 3. In view of the insufficient
and insecure power supply and the high electrification costs it is recommended to use
diesel propulsion for the initial phases and base the rolling stock on diesel multiple units
(DMUs).
As part of the Feasibility Study, both a Preliminary Environmental Impact Assessment
(EIA) and a Preliminary Social Impact Assessment (SIA) were to be conducted. These
have been prepared together as a Preliminary Environmental and Social Impact As-
sessment (ESIA), in the form of a Screening Report, in order to meet the requirements
of the National Environment Management Authority (NEMA). Environmental and so-
cial mitigation measures to address the identified impacts were outlined in the Environ-
mental and Social Management Plan.

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The investment costs have been estimated on the basis of a preliminary bill of quanti-
ties. The operations costs include the costs of staff (stations, depots and workshops), in-
frastructure (depreciation, maintenance and replacement) and train operations (person-
nel, fuels and lubricants, depreciation, maintenance and replacement of rolling stock).
A Road Map for the project implementation has been developed based on 12 sections
within the 6 corridors described above. These have been prioritised according to the cri-
teria investment costs, operation costs and expected traffic volume. A further criterion is
the development of a coherent network in each stage of system implementation; sections
will only be realised, if they have connectivity to the network (no stand-alone sections).
The economic viability assessment considers the macro-economic environment, costs
and externalities to assess the economic surplus generated by the project. The first result
obtained is a negative NPV (with an interest of 5.5%) and an EIRR of 4.3% for the to-
tal project. The sensitivity analysis assuming increased infrastructure costs results in a
more negative NPV and reduced EIRR of 3.3%, whereas an increase in benefits im-
proves the results and renders a positive NPV and an EIRR of 7.1%.
To improve the economic viability of the project a new calculation was made for a re-
duced project which excludes the least viable corridors 5 and 6. The reduced project is
based on the same Road Map but includes only 10 sections within 4 corridors, with a to-
tal length of 365 km. The corresponding calculation gives a positive NPV and an EIRR
of 6.3%. The sensitivity analysis assuming increased infrastructure costs results in a
negative NPV and reduced EIRR of 5.1%, whereas an increase in benefits improves the
results and renders an increased NPV and an EIRR of 9.1%.
The financial viability assessment considers the micro-economic context of the project
itself, focusing on identification of the financial gap or surplus from construction and
operations and the financing resources required to execute it. From the financial point of
view the project NPV (excluding subsidies) is negative, and consequently the FIRR
cannot be computed. It concludes that the project, as such, is not considered financially
viable and able to sustain its own financing. Operations will require an operations sub-
sidy to break even.
The study includes a Risk Analysis which identifies and describes the various types of
risks which are critical for the future realisation of the project, and proposes mitigation
measures for all the identified risks at the various project phases.
The consultant recommends to develop the Mombasa commuter railway project with
the reduced scope including the corridors 1 to 4. The corridor 6 Malindi – Lamu should
be examined by a new study with the focus freight transport in conjunction with the
Lamu port project. The corridor 5 Mazeras – Takaungu shall be included to this freight
traffic study representing a bypass to Mombasa for freight trains from Lamu to Nairobi.

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Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.............................................................................................................. 1
1 FRAMEWORK OF THE FINAL REPORT .................................................................. 10
1.1 Final Report ....................................................................................................................... 10

1.2 Scope of Work ................................................................................................................... 10
1.3 Outputs/ Deliverables......................................................................................................... 11
1.4 Limitation of the Scope of Work ........................................................................................ 12
1.5 Optional Tasks ................................................................................................................... 13
2 PROJECT BACKGROUND ........................................................................................... 14
2.1 The country and its people ................................................................................................. 14

2.2 The Client .......................................................................................................................... 16
2.3 Project Location ................................................................................................................. 16
2.4 Overview of the Counties................................................................................................... 19
2.4.1 Mombasa ........................................................................................................................... 19
2.4.2 Kwale ................................................................................................................................ 20
2.4.3 Kilifi .................................................................................................................................. 20
2.4.4 Taita Taveta ....................................................................................................................... 21
2.5 Rationale for the Project..................................................................................................... 21
2.6 Objectives of the Study ...................................................................................................... 22
2.7 Background Information about Kenya ................................................................................ 23
2.7.1 Kenya’s Macro-Economic Setting ...................................................................................... 23
2.7.2 Project History: Initial Concept Proposal ........................................................................... 23
2.8 Authorities ......................................................................................................................... 24
3 MARKET STUDY AND TRAFFIC DEMAND FORECAST ....................................... 25
3.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 25

3.2 Methodical Approach......................................................................................................... 25
3.3 Description of the Existing Situation .................................................................................. 28
3.3.1 Geography ......................................................................................................................... 28
3.3.2 Population and Economy ................................................................................................... 29
3.3.3 Travel behaviour ................................................................................................................ 30
3.3.4 Transport networks ............................................................................................................ 33
3.3.5 Traffic Data Collection ...................................................................................................... 39
3.3.6 Outlook.............................................................................................................................. 42
3.4 Traffic Demand Forecast.................................................................................................... 45
3.4.1 Passenger Demand Potential .............................................................................................. 45
3.4.2 Traffic Volume without Railway ........................................................................................ 46
3.4.3 Traffic Volume with Railway ............................................................................................. 48

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3.5 Appraisal of the Operating System ..................................................................................... 53
4 ROUTE LOCATION AND ALIGNMENT .................................................................... 55
4.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 55

4.2 Alignment Standards.......................................................................................................... 55
4.3 Other projects in connection with the railway study ........................................................... 55
4.3.1 New Standard Gauge Railway Mombasa – Nairobi ............................................................ 56
4.3.2 Mombasa port development projects .................................................................................. 56
4.3.3 Lamu Port Project .............................................................................................................. 57
4.4 The Corridor Study ............................................................................................................ 59
4.4.1 Corridor 1: Mombasa – Airport – Likoni - Ramisi Corridor ............................................... 59
4.4.2 Corridor 2: Mombasa – Mtwapa – Kilifi – Malindi Corridor .............................................. 65
4.4.3 Corridor 3: Mombasa – Mazeras – Voi Corridor ................................................................ 71
4.4.4 Corridor 4: Likoni Ferry – Bamburi Corridor (Mombasa Ring Corridor) ............................ 76
4.4.5 Corridor 5: Mazeras – Kaloleni – Takaungu Corridor......................................................... 80
4.4.6 Corridor 6: Malindi – Lamu Corridor ................................................................................. 84
4.5 Road Map for Development ............................................................................................... 86
5 OPERATIONAL CONCEPT .......................................................................................... 89
5.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 89

5.2 Network characteristics ...................................................................................................... 89
5.3 Corridors ........................................................................................................................... 90
5.4 Proposed train services....................................................................................................... 91
5.4.1 Corridor 1: North-South corridor ....................................................................................... 91
5.4.2 Corridor 2: Western corridor .............................................................................................. 91
5.4.3 Corridor 3: Western ring .................................................................................................... 92
5.4.4 Corridor 4: Eastern ring ..................................................................................................... 92
5.5 Alternatives ....................................................................................................................... 92
5.5.1 Likoni corridor................................................................................................................... 92
5.5.2 Malindi - Lamu .................................................................................................................. 92
5.5.3 Mazeras – Kaloleni - Takaungu.......................................................................................... 92
5.6 Nodes, connections with long-distance services ................................................................. 93
5.7 Train schedule ................................................................................................................... 94
5.7.1 General .............................................................................................................................. 94
5.7.2 Mombasa – Airport – Likoni – Ramisi Service................................................................... 94
5.7.3 Mombasa – Mtwapa – Kilifi – Malindi Service .................................................................. 95
5.7.4 Mombasa – Mazeras – Voi Service .................................................................................... 96
5.7.5 Likoni Ferry – Bamburi Service ......................................................................................... 97
5.7.6 Mazeras – Kaloleni – Takaungu Service ............................................................................ 98
5.7.7 Malindi – Lamu Service ..................................................................................................... 98
5.8 Staffing and organization ................................................................................................... 99
5.9 Maintenance concept ......................................................................................................... 99
6 RAILWAY TECHNOLOGY ........................................................................................ 100

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6.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 100

6.2 Trackwork, stations and maintenance facilities................................................................. 100
6.2.1 Track work ...................................................................................................................... 100
6.2.2 Stations ............................................................................................................................ 101
6.2.3 Maintenance facilities ...................................................................................................... 102
6.3 Signalling and train control .............................................................................................. 104
6.3.1 Purpose of this section ..................................................................................................... 104
6.3.2 Conditions ....................................................................................................................... 104
6.3.3 ETCS system levels ......................................................................................................... 104
6.3.4 Further development ........................................................................................................ 109
6.3.5 Open questions about ETCS Levels 2 / 3 / ERTMS Regional ........................................... 109
6.3.6 PTC (Positive Train Control) ........................................................................................... 112
6.3.7 System recommendation .................................................................................................. 112
6.4 Data transmission network ............................................................................................... 113
6.4.1 Purpose ............................................................................................................................ 113
6.4.2 Network architecture........................................................................................................ 113
6.4.3 Data transmission............................................................................................................. 115
6.4.4 Available systems ............................................................................................................ 116
6.5 Electrification and power supply ...................................................................................... 116
6.5.1 Energy supply .................................................................................................................. 116
6.5.2 Selection of traction power supply system........................................................................ 116
6.5.3 Substations ...................................................................................................................... 118
6.5.4 Overhead contact wire system .......................................................................................... 118
6.5.5 Remote control centre ...................................................................................................... 118
6.5.6 Operation and maintenance .............................................................................................. 119
6.5.7 Risks, mitigation .............................................................................................................. 119
6.6 Rolling stock.................................................................................................................... 119
6.6.1 General ............................................................................................................................ 119
6.6.2 Train configuration .......................................................................................................... 119
6.6.3 Capacity........................................................................................................................... 120
6.6.4 Vehicle dimensions and characteristics ............................................................................ 120
6.6.5 Entry and floor height ...................................................................................................... 120
6.6.6 Acceleration and speed .................................................................................................... 121
6.6.7 Propulsion and traction .................................................................................................... 121
7 PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL IMPACT ANALYSIS .......... 122
7.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 122

7.2 General basis of the study ................................................................................................ 122
7.3 Sectoral studies ................................................................................................................ 123
7.3.1 Physical environment ....................................................................................................... 123
7.3.2 Natural environment ........................................................................................................ 124
7.3.3 Socio-economic environment ........................................................................................... 127
7.4 Analysis of social context ................................................................................................ 128
7.5 Synopsis .......................................................................................................................... 129
7.5.1 Overall impact per corridor section .................................................................................. 129
7.5.2 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 130
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7.5.3 Environmental and Social Management Plan ................................................................... 131
8 PRELIMINARY COST ESTIMATES ......................................................................... 135
8.1 General ............................................................................................................................ 135

8.2 Unit costs and total cost calculation principles ................................................................. 135
8.3 Cost estimation of capital costs ........................................................................................ 136
8.4 Cost estimation of operation costs .................................................................................... 136
8.5 Cost estimation reduced project ....................................................................................... 141
9 ECONOMIC APPRAISAL ........................................................................................... 145
9.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 145

9.2 Methodology.................................................................................................................... 146
9.3 Indicators for the economic appraisal ............................................................................... 147
9.4 Input data ......................................................................................................................... 148
9.4.1 Cost estimation (direct and externalities) .......................................................................... 148
9.4.2 Investment costs .............................................................................................................. 148
9.4.3 Operational expenditures ................................................................................................. 149
9.5 Benefit estimation ............................................................................................................ 149
9.5.1 Travel time benefits ......................................................................................................... 149
9.5.2 External impacts .............................................................................................................. 150
9.5.2.1 Vehicle operating costs (VOC) ........................................................................................ 150
9.5.3 Job Creation ..................................................................................................................... 151
9.5.4 Externalities ..................................................................................................................... 152
9.5.5 Safety / Accidents ............................................................................................................ 153
9.5.6 Revenues ......................................................................................................................... 154
9.5.7 Residual value ................................................................................................................. 154
9.5.8 Total values of benefits .................................................................................................... 154
9.6 Calculation of the economic internal rate of return (EIRR) ............................................... 155
9.7 Risk and sensitivity analysis............................................................................................. 157
9.7.1 Risk Analysis ................................................................................................................... 157
9.7.2 Sensitivity Analysis ......................................................................................................... 157
9.7.3 Scenario with reduced sections ........................................................................................ 158
10 FINANCIAL ASESSMENT .......................................................................................... 161
10.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 161

10.1.1 Context: financial appraisal vs. economic appraisal.......................................................... 161
10.1.2 The Distinction between Funding and Financing or the project ........................................ 162
10.2 Methodology and approach – cash flow engineering concepts .......................................... 163
10.2.1 Defining the project cash flows ........................................................................................ 163
10.2.2 Project returns and parameters ......................................................................................... 164
10.2.3 Identifying the Financing Required and the Funding gap.................................................. 165
10.3 Financial model structure and input assumptions.............................................................. 165
10.3.1 Format and methodology ................................................................................................. 165
10.3.2 Model Structure ............................................................................................................... 166

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10.3.3 Revenue input assumptions .............................................................................................. 167

10.3.4 Cost Estimates input assumptions .................................................................................... 168
10.3.5 Operating and Maintenance Expenditures ........................................................................ 169
10.4 Overview of financing and procurement options .............................................................. 172
10.4.1 Project’s financing strategy .............................................................................................. 172
10.4.2 Considerations with regards to PPP-based procurement and packaged financing solutions 174
10.4.3 Proposed financing structure for the feasibility study ....................................................... 176
10.5 Project Scenarios returns and viability gap assessment ..................................................... 179
10.5.1 Computation of financial feasibility parameters ............................................................... 179
10.5.2 Base Case scenario........................................................................................................... 179
10.5.3 Sensitivity analysis .......................................................................................................... 180
10.5.4 Results ............................................................................................................................. 181
10.5.5 Cash Flow Prognoses of the Base Case Simulation .......................................................... 182
11 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS......................................................... 184
11.1 Technical concept ............................................................................................................ 184

11.2 Environmental and social impact...................................................................................... 185
11.3 Economic appraisal .......................................................................................................... 185
11.4 Financial assessment ........................................................................................................ 186
11.5 Road Map ........................................................................................................................ 187
12 REVIEW OF ASSUMPTIONS, CHANCES AND RISKS........................................... 188
12.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 188

12.2 General ............................................................................................................................ 188
12.3 Political Risks .................................................................................................................. 188
12.4 Economic Risks ............................................................................................................... 189
12.5 Legal Framework ............................................................................................................. 190
12.6 Financial Risks ................................................................................................................ 191
12.7 Technical Risks................................................................................................................ 192
12.8 Operational Risks............................................................................................................. 193
13 ANNEXES ...................................................................................................................... 194
13.1 Annex 1: Corridor Study Mapbook .................................................................................. 194

13.2 Annex 2: Population Mapbook......................................................................................... 194
13.3 Annex 3: Longitudinal Sections Mapbook........................................................................ 195
13.4 Annex 4: Preliminary Environmental and Social Impact Assessment ............................... 196
13.5 Annex 5: Environment Mapbook ..................................................................................... 196
13.6 Annex 6: Socio-Economic Mapbook ................................................................................ 196
13.7 Annex 7: Cost Estimation Investment Costs ..................................................................... 197
13.8 Annex 8: Cost Estimation Operation Costs....................................................................... 197

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Table of Tables
Table 1.1: Report Schedules ........................................................................................................ 11

Table 2.1: Authorities .................................................................................................................. 24
Table 3.1: Current average daily traffic (ADT) ............................................................................ 40
Table 3.2: Modal Split (%) .......................................................................................................... 40
Table 3.3: The average travel time & cost from Mombasa to the surrounding sub centres............ 41
Table 3.4: Traffic volumes in catchment area 2013, 2020 and 2045 without railway system ........ 48
Table 3.5: Passengers per day, detailed route section in 2020/30/45............................................ 52
Table 3.6: Estimation of required train services ........................................................................... 54
Table 4.1: Alignment Standards................................................................................................... 55
Table 4.2: Stations of the Mombasa – Airport – Likoni - Ramisi Corridor ................................... 61
Table 4.3: Main Structures of the Mombasa – Airport – Likoni - Ramisi Corridor ....................... 62
Table 4.4: Junctions of the Mombasa – Airport – Likoni - Ramisi Corridor ................................. 62
Table 4.5: Stations of the Mombasa – Mtwapa – Kilifi – Malindi Corridor .................................. 67
Table 4.6: Main Structures of the Mombasa – Mtwapa – Kilifi – Malindi Corridor...................... 68
Table 4.7: Junctions of the Mombasa – Mtwapa – Kilifi – Malindi Corridor ................................ 68
Table 4.8: Comparison of stations along the Mombasa – Mazeras – Voi Corridor ....................... 73
Table 4.9: Commuter Service Stations of the Mombasa – Mazeras – Voi Corridor ...................... 73
Table 4.10: Junctions of the Mombasa – Mazeras – Voi Corridor .................................................. 74
Table 4.11: Stations of the Likoni Ferry – Bamburi Corridor ......................................................... 77
Table 4.12: Main Structures of the Likoni Ferry – Bamburi Corridor............................................. 77
Table 4.13: Junctions of the Likoni Ferry – Bamburi Corridor ....................................................... 78
Table 4.14: Stations of the Mazeras – Kaloleni – Takaungu Corridor ............................................ 82
Table 4.15: Main Structures of the Mazeras – Kaloleni – Takaungu Corridor ................................ 82
Table 4.16: Junctions of the Mazeras – Kaloleni – Takaungu Corridor .......................................... 82
Table 4.17: Stations of the Malindi – Lamu Corridor ..................................................................... 84
Table 4.18: Main Structures of the Malindi – Lamu Corridor ........................................................ 85
Table 4.19: Junctions of the Malindi – Lamu Corridor................................................................... 85
Table 4.20: Road map for development, Sections .......................................................................... 86
Table 4.21: Road map for development, schedule .......................................................................... 87
Table 5.1: Travel Time Mombasa – Airport – Likoni – Ramisi Service ....................................... 94
Table 5.2: Travel Time Mombasa – Mtwapa – Kilifi – Malindi Service ....................................... 95
Table 5.3: Travel Time Mombasa – Mazeras – Voi Service ......................................................... 96
Table 5.4: Travel Time Likoni Ferry – Panga Service .................................................................. 97
Table 5.5: Travel Time Mazeras – Kaloleni – Takaungu Service ................................................. 98
Table 5.6: Travel Time Malindi – Lamu Service.......................................................................... 98
Table 6.1: Data Transmission Types .......................................................................................... 115
Table 7.1: Elements of the landscape affected between Waa Station and Gongoni Station ......... 124
Table 7.2: Preliminary evaluation of overall project impacts per corridor section....................... 129
Table 7.3: Impacts and mitigation measures identified for the planning phase ........................... 132
Table 8.1: Cost estimation of capital costs ................................................................................. 137
Table 8.2: Yearly global and sectional investment costs ............................................................ 138
Table 8.3: Road Map for development, sections of the reduced project ...................................... 141
Table 8.4: Cost estimation of capital costs for the reduced project ............................................. 141

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Table 8.5: Yearly global investment costs for the reduced project .............................................. 142
Table 9.1: Parameters for the Economic Appraisal .................................................................... 147
Table 9.2: Values for travel times ............................................................................................. 150
Table 9.3: Time savings ............................................................................................................ 150
Table 9.4: Vehicle operating costs for road traffic ..................................................................... 151
Table 9.5: Saved VOC Costs ..................................................................................................... 151
Table 9.6: Infras-IWW unit costs – Euro for base year 2000 ...................................................... 152
Table 9.7: Transfer coefficients based on GDP/capita ................................................................ 152
Table 9.8: Yearly savings from externalities .............................................................................. 153
Table 9.9: Road Accidents in Kenya per year (rough figure)...................................................... 153
Table 9.10: Values for saved accidents ........................................................................................ 153
Table 9.11: Accident reduction savings ....................................................................................... 154
Table 9.12: Economic analysis – details ...................................................................................... 156
Table 9.13: Overview of economic analysis result ....................................................................... 157
Table 9.14: Share of effects in total present value ........................................................................ 157
Table 9.16: Economic analysis results with increased investment costs ....................................... 158
Table 9.17: Economic analysis results with increased benefit values ........................................... 158
Table 9.17: Economic analysis results with increased benefit values ........................................... 158
Table 9.18: Share of effects of the Reduced Projekt in total present value.................................... 159
Table 9.19: Economic analysis of the reduced projekt – details (all values in mn KES) ............... 160
Table 10.1: Monthly Staff Costs and crew mixes- Stations .......................................................... 169
Table 10.2: Monthly Staff Costs and crew mixes- Maintenance Facilities .................................... 170
Table 10.3: Monthly Staff Costs and crew mixes- Rolling Stock(Train operations) ..................... 170
Table 10.4: Financing instruments for Mombasa Commuter Rail - review of opportunities ......... 173
Table 10.5: Financing Gap and ODA Loan disbursement for construction financing ................... 177
Table 10.6: Base Case Financial Feasibility Results .................................................................... 179
Table 10.7: Reduced Investment Financial Feasibility Results ..................................................... 180
Table 10.8: Sensitivtiy Analysis Results ...................................................................................... 181
Table 10.9: Cash Flow prognoses – D&B Phase .......................................................................... 183
Table 10.10: Cash Flow prognoses – Operating Phase until 2045 .................................................. 183
Table 11.1: Large bridges of the Corridor 1: Mombasa – Likoni – Ramisi ................................... 184
Table 11.2: Large bridges of the Corridor 2: Mombasa – Kilifi – Malindi.................................... 184
Table 11.1: Large bridges of the Corridor 4: Likoni Ferry – Junda – Bamburi ............................. 184
Table 13.1: Content of Corridor Study and Population Mapbook ................................................. 194
Table 13.2: Content of Longitudinal Sections Mapbook .............................................................. 195
Table 13.3: Content of Environment and Socio-economic Mapbook............................................ 196
Table of Figures
Figure 2.1: Kenya - Geography ..................................................................................................... 14

Figure 2.2: Kenya - Population ..................................................................................................... 14
Figure 2.3: Kenya - Administration............................................................................................... 14
Figure 2.4: Mombasa Location Map & National Transport linkages ............................................. 18
Figure 2.5: Major Road Networks in Mombasa Central Business District ..................................... 19
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Figure 3.1: Work Steps of Market Study and Traffic Demand Forecast ......................................... 25
Figure 3.2: Increase of Traffic Demand in Chatchment Area (Demand Forecast) .......................... 27
Figure 3.3: Increased Area with Travel Time To Centre < 45 min. due to Railway (exemplary) .... 27
Figure 3.4: Map of Mombasa Island ............................................................................................. 28
Figure 3.5: Map of proposed lines in the Mombasa Region ........................................................... 29
Figure 3.6: Population Distribution in and around Mombasa......................................................... 30
Figure 3.7: Composition of travel mode for Nairobi...................................................................... 31
Figure 3.8: Travel modes in Nairobi ............................................................................................. 32
Figure 3.9: Modal Share Mombasa Region 2013 .......................................................................... 32
Figure 3.10: Average trip distance and travel speed per mode ......................................................... 33
Figure 3.11: Transportation Network around Mombasa and the Surrounding Towns ...................... 34
Figure 3.12: Typical pedestrian condition in rural area.................................................................... 35
Figure 3.13: Rural road with pedestrian and bycicle traffic on side strip ......................................... 35
Figure 3.14: Matatu ........................................................................................................................ 36
Figure 3.15: Tuk_Tuk ..................................................................................................................... 37
Figure 3.16: Motorcycle taxi........................................................................................................... 37
Figure 3.17: Bicycle Taxi ............................................................................................................... 38
Figure 3.18: Likoni Ferry................................................................................................................ 39
Figure 3.19: LAPSSET Transport Corridor Development Plan ....................................................... 43
Figure 3.20: Mombasa Southern Bypass and Kipevu Link Road Development Plan ....................... 44
Figure 3.21: Kenya Population Projection....................................................................................... 45
Figure 3.22: Population Forecast: Population within 3km areas around stations .............................. 46
Figure 3.23: Modal split changes 2009 - 2045................................................................................. 47
Figure 3.24: Daily trips per transport mode 2020 – 2050................................................................. 47
Figure 3.25: Trip shifts to railway system (2045) ............................................................................ 49
Figure 3.26: Ramp-up of trips acording to built railway infrastructure ............................................ 49
Figure 3.27: Total passengers per year and line. Traffic volumes in catchment area of the railway
system in 2013, 2020 and 2045 ................................................................................... 50
Figure 3.28: Passengers per day and route section in 2045 .............................................................. 51
Figure 4.1: Mombasa Port Projects ............................................................................................... 57
Figure 4.2: Lamu Port Project ....................................................................................................... 58
Figure 4.3: Mombasa Main Station ............................................................................................... 60
Figure 4.4: The Dongo Kundu Table Mountain............................................................................. 60
Figure 4.5: The Ramisi Sugar Plant Area ...................................................................................... 61
Figure 4.6: Topology of Corridor 1, Section Mombasa Main Station– MOI International Airport . 63
Figure 4.7: Topology of Corridor 1, Section Tsunza - Tiwi ........................................................... 63
Figure 4.8: Topology of Corridor 1, Section Ukunda – Ramisi...................................................... 64
Figure 4.9: Mombasa Central Business District ............................................................................ 65
Figure 4.10: Mombasa Harbour with relicts of the old pontoon bridge ............................................ 66
Figure 4.11: The Kilifi Creek .......................................................................................................... 66
Figure 4.12: Malindi Main Road ..................................................................................................... 67
Figure 4.13: Mida Creek near Watamu ........................................................................................... 69
Figure 4.14: Topology of Corridor 2, Section Mombasa – Shimo la Tewa ...................................... 70
Figure 4.15: Topology of Corridor 2, Section Mtwapa – Kilifi ........................................................ 70
Figure 4.16: Topology of Corridor 2, Section Mtondia – Malindi ................................................... 70
Figure 4.17: Miritini Railway Station ............................................................................................. 71

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Figure 4.18: Tsavo National Park, Bachuma Gate ........................................................................... 72

Figure 4.19: C 105 Level crossing at Voi ........................................................................................ 72
Figure 4.20: Topology of Corridor 3, Section Mombasa – Mikindani ............................................. 74
Figure 4.21: Topology of Corridor 3, Section Miritini - Samburu ................................................... 75
Figure 4.22: Topology of Corridor 3, Section Taru - Voi ................................................................ 75
Figure 4.23: Likoni Ferry................................................................................................................ 76
Figure 4.24: Junda Creek ................................................................................................................ 77
Figure 4.25: Topology of Corridor 4, Section Likoni Ferry – Junda ................................................ 78
Figure 4.26: Topology of Corridor 4, Section Kengelani Road – Bamburi ...................................... 79
Figure 4.27: Countryside near Mkapuni .......................................................................................... 80
Figure 4.28: Kambe Cement Plant .................................................................................................. 81
Figure 4.29: Kaloleni Main Road .................................................................................................... 81
Figure 4.30: Topology of Corridor 5, Mazeras - Takaungu ............................................................. 83
Figure 4.31: The Tana River Delta .................................................................................................. 84
Figure 4.32: Topology of Corridor 6, Malindi – Lamu .................................................................... 85
Figure 4.33: Road map for development ......................................................................................... 88
Figure 5.1: General planned network map..................................................................................... 90
Figure 5.2: City of Mombasa detail map ....................................................................................... 91
Figure 6.1: Typical Cross-Section ............................................................................................... 100
Figure 6.2: Principe schema ETCS Level 1 ................................................................................. 105
Figure 6.3: Example of balises, Hatfield (Pretoria) 9.12.2011 ..................................................... 106
Figure 6.4: Principe schema ETCS Level 2 ................................................................................. 106
Figure 6.5: Example of cab signal display, Gautrain Unit 301.016, Pretoria 9.12.2011................ 107
Figure 6.6: Principle schema ETCS Level 3 / ERTMS Regional ................................................. 108
Figure 6.7: Principle schema ETCS Level 3 / ERTMS Regional with GPS tracking .................... 109
Figure 6.8: Principle of “Dark territory management” ................................................................. 110
Figure 6.9: Network architecture................................................................................................. 114
Figure 6.10: Autotransformer system ............................................................................................ 117
Figure 6.11: Overhead contact lines on individual supports using concret poles. ........................... 118
Figure 6.12: Typical configuration schema of rolling stock for commuter rail............................... 120
Figure 8.1: Yearly and accrued investment cost for each section ................................................. 139
Figure 8.2: Yearly and accrued operation costs for each section ................................................. 140
Figure 8.3: Yearly and accrued investment cost for the reduced project ...................................... 143
Figure 8.4: Yearly and accrued operation costs for each section for the reduced project .............. 144
Figure 9.1: Transport Economic Appraisal Structure................................................................... 146
Figure 9.2: Investment cost (economic values)............................................................................ 148
Figure 9.3: Project benefit development ...................................................................................... 155
Figure 9.4: Cash Flow Curve of economic values ....................................................................... 155
Figure 10.1: Socio-Economic vs. Financial appraisal (source RebelGroup)................................... 161
Figure 10.2: Financing Gap vs. Funding Gap (source RebelGroup) .............................................. 163
Figure 10.3: Mechanics of the spreadsheet financial model ........................................................... 166

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1 FRAMEWORK OF THE FINAL REPORT
1.1 Final Report

This Final Report is submitted by Pöyry Switzerland Ltd. in accordance with the Con-
sultancy Agreement dated 30. October 2012 for Consultancy Services for Feasibility
Study, Environment and Social Impact Assessment for Development of Modern Metro-
politan Commuter Rail Services within Mombasa City and Surrounding Counties. It is
based on the Inception Report dated 11. January 2013, the Interim Report dated 30.
April 2013, the Draft Final Report dated 13. November 2013, the conference held in
Nairobi with KRC on 10. January 2013 the Stakeholder Conferences held in Mombasa
on 15. January and 26. June 2013 and the PIG meeting held in Nairobi on 7. February
2014.
1.2 Scope of Work

The consultancy assignment covers the following key areas:
i. Market study: undertake current market demand analysis and demand forecast
projection over a period of 30 years based on qualitative and quantitative macro-
economic data. The Consultant shall carry out transportation studies including
origin-destination study quantifying the factors influencing passenger transport
demand to produce data on demand forecasts. The relevant data shall encompass
demographic and economic activities.
ii. Route location: identify possible routes and prepare sketch route layout and sta-
tions. The route shall be categorized as routes within Mombasa City, and routes
linking Mombasa City to other centers including the proposed Lamu port. The
route and alignment making shall be to such detail as to enable the Consultant
estimate right of way costs, development and operating costs to within +-20%.
iii. Environmental impact analysis: undertake a preliminary Environmental Impact
Assessment (EIA) for the proposed project in accordance with National Envi-
ronmental Management Authority (NEMA) guidelines to identify the type, na-
ture, extent of possible impact to the environment and prepare initial cost esti-
mate for recommended mitigation factors.
iv. Social impact assessment: develop framework for SIA as per World Bank
Guidelines and undertake a preliminary assessment of the potential social impact
in terms of the resettlement of persons and compensation for properties and their
cost thereof.
v. Technical viability: undertake option analysis and examine possible railway in-
frastructure design options covering permanent way, station facilities, mainte-
nance facilities, information communication, train control systems, electrifica-
tion, diesel and other railway equipment;
vi. Estimate the costs for the right of way, environment and social mitigations, in-
frastructure development and operation of the various systems;

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vii. Financial and economic viability assessment: determine the financial and eco-
nomic viability of proposed lines and appropriate investment in equipment.
Identify financially viable (bankable) routes or systems. Where economic viabil-
ity is the criteria determine funding gap required to attract Public Private Part-
nership (PPP) and lender funding. In making evaluation due consideration to be
given to time based development plan (project phasing) that would assure finan-
cial and/or economic viability.
viii. Develop a risk matrix for the project in view of various project implementation
and funding option
ix. Examine various project funding options including Government budget provi-
sions, county budget support during operation and PPP options.
x. Upon consultations with the Client, stakeholders and investor market sensing,
make recommendations on preferred option and priority routes.
xi. Prepare project implementation schedule and funding requirement covering de-
tailed design and development for the recommended project implementation op-
tion.
xii. Make any other relevant recommendation deemed necessary.
The entire study will be undertaken over a period of 6 (six) calendar months after com-
mencement of the study.
1.3 Outputs/ Deliverables

The main output will be the final report which will cover the issues referred to under the
scope given. However, the Consultant will be required to prepare and submit the follow-
ing stage reports:
Table 1.1: Report Schedules
WEEKS/MONTH OUTPUT/TASK TYPES, NOs OF REPORTS &
FORMAT
-3 weeks Signing of Contract
0 Commencement of Con-
tract
1 month Inception Report 4 (Four) hard copies & soft copy
3 month Interim Report 6 (Six) hard copies and 6 (six) CD’s
4.5 month Stake Holders Conference
5month Draft Final report 6 (Six) hard copies & 6 (six) CDs
6 month Final Report 10 (Ten) hard copies & Ten (10)
CD’s
The inception report shall include:
i. Definition of the objectives of the services to be rendered and expected results;
ii. Submission of detailed work plan and performance plan, including indicators for
the evaluation of progress;

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iii. Possible risks and challenges anticipated to arise during the period of services;
iv. An overview of existing projects documentation and information;
v. Results of existing field investigation;
vi. Presentation of the quality assurance mechanisms for implementation of the
work;
vii. Quality Plan that the Consultant shall adhere to during Study implementation.
Quality Plan shall include sets of success indicators that shall be used for moni-
toring and quality assessment;
viii. The name list of authorities, with whom contacts were made during preparation
of project and the meetings protocols;
The Interim Report shall cover issues outlined in section 5.4 (i) to (iv) of TOR and
should analyze and reflect the working in a way that gives Client an adequate picture of
the main outcomes and the reasons thereof.
The Draft Final Report shall cover all issues outlined the TOR. The Draft final shall in-
clude all the findings, analysis, conclusions and recommendations of the Consultant. It
shall be submitted to the Client and subsequently discussed. The Consultant, upon con-
sideration of the Clients views shall review and prepare the Final Report which shall
take into account all the Clients input and include final conclusions and recommenda-
tions.
1.4 Limitation of the Scope of Work

The following railway corridors have been identified to be evaluated within this feasi-
bility study:
Moi International Airport Corridor
Mombasa – Mtwapa – Kilifi Corridor
Kilifi – Lamu Corridor
Miritini – Ramisi Corridor
Mazeras – Kaloleni – Takaungu Corridor
Mombasa – Voi Corridor along the existing meter gauge railway
These corridors connect the most important settlement areas of the Mombasa region
with the regional metropolis. The feasibility study will treat these corridors in particular.
The Mombasa – Voi Corridor is as well part of the project to build a standard gauge
railway Mombasa – Nairobi – Malaba. The examination for using this corridor for
commuter railway of Mombasa region too will therefore be based on results of the
Standard Gauge Railway (SGR-)Project to prevent a double alignment in this corridor.
The operational concept would be drawn up in a simple way to get the basis for estima-
tion of the operational costs
The study is limited to the investigation of passenger traffic following the task to devel-
op a commuter railway network. The proposed railway lines can naturally be used for

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freight traffic too but freight traffic evaluation, conception of installations and economic
assessment for freight traffic are not subject of this study.
The study will be based on a tariff system accordant to the system which is foressen for
the Nairobi Commuter Railway. The relevant information must be made available to the
consultant.
1.5 Optional Tasks

The study may be enhanced by additional topics to be researched. We have identified
the following topics to be subject for optional tasks: -
Detailed operational concept study. A detailed operational concept study can
result more detailed information for running a commuter railway at Mombasa.
We recommend to deepen the investigation of the operating system in a further
study.
Feasibility study for a standard gauge railway in the Mombasa – Voi Corridor.
The alignment of the Mombasa – Voi corridor is subject of the SGR-Projekt
Mombasa – Nairobi. It is foreseen to adopt the SGR alignment for this study
with any necessary adjustments. If the alignment is not yet available it would be
possible to design an alignment following the SGR design criteria as an option-
al task.
Freight traffic. It would be expedient to use the railway corridors for freight
traffic too. This could also provide economic and financial benefits. The inclu-
sion of freight traffic to the feasibility study can be an optional task.

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2 PROJECT BACKGROUND
2.1 The country and its people

Kenya is located in East Africa, against the
Indian Ocean. It has a surface area of some
580,000 sq.km and a population of 38 mil-
lion. Key exports include tea, coffee, flowers,
fruits and vegetables. Tourism is an im-
portant earner of foreign exchange.
Kenya has international borders with
5 countries: Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Tan-
zania and Uganda. International relations are
maintained through various organisations.
Two are of particular interest, the East Afri-
can Community1 and the Common Market
for Eastern and Southern Africa Figure 2.1: Kenya - Geography
2
(COMESA). The East African Community
(EAC) is the regional intergovernmental or-
ganisation of the Republics of Kenya, Ugan-
da, the United Republic of Tanzania, Repub-
lic of Rwanda and Republic of Burundi with
its headquarters in Arusha, Tanzania.
COMESA is a regional economic community
with a free trade area.
The highest level of the country´s internal
administrative structure, in line with the New
Constitution promulgated on 27th August,
2010 begins with 47 counties each headed by
a presidentially appointed County Commis-
sioner. The counties are subdivided into dis- Figure 2.2: Kenya - Population
tricts (Wilaya) which are then subdivided in-
to divisions (Tarafa). The divison is then
subdivided into location (Mtaa) and then
sub-location (Kijiji). Mombasa is Kenya’s
second largest City as well as being the capi-
tal of the county; it is therefore a county di-
vided into four divisions and it has six con-
stituencies. Mombasa is located on the east
coast of Kenya, in the Coast Region. The
government supervises administration of the
counties and therein the districts, with the
1
East African Community
2
COMESA website
Figure 2.3: Kenya - Administration
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government represented by the commissioners.
Climate
Kenya has a tropical climate. It is hot and humid at the coast, temperate inland and very
dry in the north and northeast parts of the country. There is however a lot of rain be-
tween March and May, and moderate rain in October and November. The temperature
remains high throughout these months. 3
Environment and social impact

Kenya has a considerable land area of wildlife habitat, with many national parks and
game reserves. Kenya also has a sizeable amount to land occupied by social infrastruc-
ture comprising health, education, water and sanitation facilities, including religious and
cultural sites. In addition, agricultural land and economic infrastructure such as roads,
railway, markets, etc. also occupy a notable area. Land plays a pivotal role in the social,
economic and political development.
Land is one of the major foundations for national transformations targeted in achieving
Vision 2030 goals4. Under land reforms, computerised land records, reference numbers
and establishment of National Spatial Data Infrastructure will make it easier to facilitate
tracking of land use patterns, put into place a legal framework for faster resolution of
land disputes, and plan and identify needed land based projects. Land owners will also
be easily identified and compensated where there is land-take for projects.
Transport administration
The central governing authority is the Government of Kenya (GoK). There are several
relevant and important government Ministries. Examples are the Ministry of Transport,
the Kenya Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, the Kenya Roads Board,
and the Kenya Railways Corporation (KRC), who is the Client for the Kenya railway
project.
The main mode types of transport in Kenya are: road, rail, air, maritime and pipeline.
The transport sector is seen by the government as “crucial in the promotion of socio-
economic activities and development. An effective, efficient and reliable transport sys-
tem is a mainspring for rapid and sustained development in terms of national, regional
and international integration, trade facilitation, poverty reduction and improvement of
welfare of the citizenry”5.
National Development Policy

The most important document in recent years on national development policy is the
“Vision 2030” report. Available in a popular version (32 pages) and a more technical
version (180 page final report, published in 2007). As the popular version explains,
3
Wiki Kenya
4
Vision 2030, Second Annual Progress Report (2009-2010)
5
MoT website

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“Kenya Vision 2030 is the country’s new development blue-

print covering the period 2008 to 2030. It aims to transform
Kenya into a newly industrialising, “middle-income country
providing a high quality life to all its citizens by the year
2030”. The Vision has been developed through an all-
inclusive and participatory stakeholder consultative process,
involving Kenyans from all parts of the country. It has
also benefited from suggestions by some of the leading local
and international experts on how the newly industrialising
countries around the world have made the leap from pov-
erty to widely-shared prosperity and equity. The Vision is
based on three “pillars”: the economic, the social and the po- Kenya – Vision 2030
litical”.
Key proposals in the technical version of the Vision 2030 which could strongly affect
the proposed Kenya railway line include:
development of a national spatial plan
an integrated national transport plan
expanding sea port facilities
light rail and bus rapid transit for Nairobi
tourism as one of 6 priority sectors
proposed 2 large and 22 medium river dams
6 “metropolitan regions”
The existing railway

The main line of the existing narrow gauge (metre gauge) Kenya Railways’ network is
some 1000 km long and connects the Indian Ocean port of Mombasa to the port of Ki-
sumu on Lake Victoria. There is a link to Uganda and there are a number of branch
lines. The RFP note that the “infrastructure is on average 100 years old with limited
quality of service and carrying capacity for freight and passengers”.
Besides the main line there are a number of commuter rail lines. For example Kenya
Railways arrange commuter rail services for Nairobi and its environs, and plans to ex-
tend the city commuter rail network. KRC has also initiated studies to develop commut-
er rail infrastructure and services for Mombasa and Kisumu.
2.2 The Client

Kenya Railways Corporation (KRC) is the client for this proposed project is. KRC is a
public enterprise wholly owned by the Government of Kenya and established by an Act
of Parliament. KRC is mandated under KRC Act Cap 397 to provide rail and inland wa-
terways transport.
2.3 Project Location

The proposed project is to be located in Mombasa City/County and its adjoining coun-
ties of Kwale, Kilifi and linkage to the proposed Lamu Port. Mombasa is the second

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largest city and the gateway to the country from the Indian Ocean. It has a population of
about 940,000 people. The populations of the adjoining counties of Kilifi and Kwale are
approximately 1,359,100 and 649,950 respectively.
Mombasa lies on the eastern shores of the Indian Ocean and has a major international
sea port and an international airport. The city also serves as the centre for coastal tour-
ism industry and provides pivotal linkage to the Tsavo National Park located to the east
of the city. The Central Business District for the city is located on Mombasa Island, but
the city extends to the mainland. Mombasa Island is connected to the mainland to the
north by Nyali bridge, to the south by Likoni ferry and to the west by Makupa cause-
way. Mombasa port is the largest port in East Africa and serves Kenya, Uganda, Rwan-
da, Burundi, the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Northern
Tanzania and South Sudan.
Mombasa, being the a major tourist destination, an administrative and commercial cen-
tre and with a combined population of 3 million people in the city and adjoining coun-
ties, is in serious need of an efficient and reliable transport system. Indeed there is need
for a sustainable transport solution now and in the near future in order to address the so-
cio-economic needs of the cities and surrounding populations as envisaged in the mil-
lennium development goals.
Currently, the City is linked by two international road networks: International Trunk
Road A109 Mombasa to Kampala through Nairobi running to the north east, Interna-
tional Trunk Road A14 Mombasa-Lungalunga road running south-west to Likoni,
Kwale and to the Tanzania border with linkage to Dar-es-Salaam and National Road B8
running due north east to Malindi and Garissa. The city is also connected by an interna-
tional railway main line that runs north-east to the capital city of Nairobi and to Kampa-
la, Uganda.

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Figure 2.4: Mombasa Location Map & National Transport linkages
Moi International Airport (MIA) serves the city of Mombasa. It is located in the town-
ship of Port Reitz. The airport handles growing air traffic with a substantial number of
airlines flying directly from and to Europe, and offering connections to over twenty cit-
ies in the region.
Within the city, Mombasa road, which is part of the International Trunk road A109 and
Digo Roads and Nyerere Avenue transverses through the center of the city in east - west
direction and also serves the Moi International airport; Moi Avenue which connects the
Central Business District to the Kilindini Harbour, Lumumba Road which links road
A109 to Mombasa Central Railway Station and Ziwani- Nyali Road which connects to
the Mombasa-Malindi Road B8.

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Figure 2.5: Major Road Networks in Mombasa Central Business District
2.4 Overview of the Counties
2.4.1 Mombasa
An Island lying on the Indian Ocean, Mombasa City is Kenya’s second-largest city, ac-
cording to the 2009 Census, has a population of 939,370. Mombasa is an international
seaport that serves Kenya’s neighbouring land locked countries. The county is situated
in the South Eastern part of Coast Province. It borders Kilifi County to the North,
Kwale County to the South West and the Indian Ocean to the East. The Tudor Creek
and Kilindini Habour separate Mombasa Island from the mainland. The Nyali Bridge
connects the island is connected to the mainland to the North whereas the Likoni Ferry
connects it to the South and the Makupa Causeway connects the island to the West. The
majestic and imposing baobab trees dot the coastal region.
The original Arabic name of the city is Manbasa. Mombasa’s Swahili name, Kisiwa
Cha Mvita (or Mvita for short), which means "Island of War" name is a depiction of the
numerous wars fought over the centuries for ownership of the island. Mombasa is an
ancient city whose rapid expansion in the last two decades has resulted in the prolifera-
tion of informal settlements and general poor urban planning.
Mombasa is a regional cultural and economic hub. The city is the tourism capital of the
coastal region and a major cog in Kenya’s tourism sector. The main industries in Mom-
basa County include the Bamburi Cement, Mombasa Cement factory, Kenya Breweries
Limited and The Tourism Industry and supporting services industry is very well devel-
oped in Mombasa County. The tourist attractions include the world famous white sandy
beaches, Fort Jesus Museum, Bamburi Nature Trail, Mombasa Marine Park, Water
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Sports, Haller Park, Mamba Village, Nguuni Nature Sanctuary, Mombasa Old Town,
Gedi Ruins amongst numerous others.
Mombasa has a well-developed transport connection to the neighbouring counties and
the country in general. The Moi International Airport in Port Rietz, the second busiest
after Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, links Mombasa to the international world.
The Kilindini Harbour connects Mombasa to the rest of the world by sea. The city is al-
so linked to the rest of the country by the Uganda Railway that ferries both goods and
passengers known for its unpredictability and unreliability. The town is also linked with
Voi town and the rest of the country by a rail to Uganda, connecting the landlocked
country with the port. The A109/A104/A1, major national highways, connect Mombasa
to Eldoret and Busia through the capital city, Nairobi. Mombasa is also linked to Lamu,
Kwale, Kilifi and Voi by road.
Mombasa County is home to the Mombasa Polytechnic University College. Additional-
ly, all the main national universities have their constituent colleges in Mombasa.
2.4.2 Kwale
Kwale with a population of 649,931 is located to the south of Kenya. It borders Tanza-
nia to the South West, Taita Taveta to the West and North West, Kilifi to the North and
North East; Mombasa to the East; and Indian Ocean to the East and South East. Kwale
town is the capital of the county. Kwale’s beauty is embedded in its four topographical
features; the Coastal Plain, the Foot Plateau, the Coastal Uplands and the Nyika Plateau.
Tourism plays an important role in the economy of Kwale. Kwale County is home to the
picturesque Diani Beach, the Colobus Trust and Kaya Kinondo Sacred Forest; key tour-
ist attractions. Tourist attractions include the Tsavo East and Tsavo West National
Parks, Shimba Hills National Reserve, Kisite Mpunguti National Park and Reserve,
Shedrick Falls, Maji Moto Springs and Mwaluganje Elephant Sanctuary amongst others.
Deposits of rare earth minerals have been found in Kwale leading to a recent develop-
ment of the mining sector in the county with Titanium mining having commenced. Ag-
riculture is important to the county with vast sugarcane, coconut vegetables and fruit
farms cover the landscape of the county
Kwale County is accessible by road network through the neighbouring counties from
Kenya’s capital city, Nairobi. The nearest airport is the Moi International Airport in
Mombasa County and the Diani Airstrip in Diani.
Kwale County does not have a University. However, the Mombasa Polytechnic Univer-
sity College maintains a campus in Ukunda.
2.4.3 Kilifi
Kilifi County with a population of 1,109,735 is 60 km from Mombasa City and one of
the six counties within Kenya’s Coastal Region. Bordering Kilifi County to the South is
Mombasa County; to the North, Tana River and Lamu; to the West Taita Taveta whilst
to the East is the Indian Ocean. Kilifi extends to Malindi, Takaungu and Mazeras. It has
four major topographical features; the Foot Plateau, the Coastal Range and the Nyika

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Plateau. Kilifi, set midway between Mombasa and Malindi, is an ancient coastal Swahili
town steeped in history and local African Culture.
The county is famous for the ancient Mnarani ruins dating back to 14th century; its pris-
tine white sandy beaches, the startlingly beautiful blue and emerald creek and a magnif-
icent coral reef are key drivers of its tourism industry. Malindi with a population of ap-
proximately 120,000 is the largest town in Kilifi County and a key tourist destination.
There are also several industrial developments in Kilifi County as well as agricultural
enterprises.
Kilifi County is accessible by road network through the neighbouring counties from
Kenya’s capital city, Nairobi. The Mombasa International Airport and the Malindi Air-
port serve Kilifi County.
Kilifi County is also home to Pwani University. There are also several constituent col-
leges of the various national universities.
2.4.4 Taita Taveta

The Taita Taveta County with a population of 284,657 covers an extensive 17,084 km2.
The county capital and largest town in Taita Taveta Wundanyi, has a population of ap-
proximately 63,000; Voi, with a population of 19,865 is the second largest town in the
county.
Of particular interest to this study is Voi town that lies on the western edge of the Taru
Desert; South and West of the Tsavo East National Park and North of Sagala Hills. This
has been proposed as a terminal station for the Mombasa Commuter Rail Network. Voi
is a busy transit town to Nairobi and a major commercial centre in Taita Taveta County.
The Tsavo East and West have access gates from Voi. There are rare gemstones (Tan-
zanites and Sapphires) mined in the county as well as Sisal processing factories. Agri-
culture is of great importance to the county’s economy in general and Voi town in par-
ticular.
Taita Taveta County does not have a university; however, Taita Taveta University Col-
lege (a constituent college of Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology)
maintains a campus in Voi town.
2.5 Rationale for the Project

Urbanisation in Kenya has been developing rapidly since independence. The population
growth in urban centres has increased from 8 % in 1980s to over 34 % in 2003 and is
projected to reach over 50% by 2020. The population of Mombasa and its environs has
reached about 3.0 million. This development has not been met with commensurate
growth in urban transport infrastructure and services. In major cities and urban areas,
especially in Nairobi, Mombasa, Nakuru, Kisumu and Eldoret, urban transport is still
characterized by inadequate supply of public transport (mostly buses and matatus), a
large number of cars and Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGVs), heavy traffic congestion dur-
ing peak hours, and stiff competition for limited road space among motorists, pedestri-
ans and cyclists. Traffic congestion is further manifested in long queues of slow-moving
vehicles and long waiting times, particularly in Nairobi and Mombasa. Poor physical

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planning has led to scarcity of parking space in the CBD in Mombasa. Because of the
inefficiency of urban transport due to poor infrastructure, transport costs are high for
both passengers and goods. The majority of low-income urban workers currently find
public transport costly and financially inaccessible and hence meet most of their
transport needs through walking and head loading. Some of them, however, risk their
lives by utilizing non-motorized and intermediate means of transport
(NMIMTs),especially bicycles, motorcycles and mikokoteni for which there is no ap-
propriate infrastructure. Given that about 50 per cent of the country’s total GDP is gen-
erated in the urban areas, the adverse consequences of the above scenario on worker’s
efficiency and productivity, fuel consumption, education, health and the environment
cannot be overemphasized.
Mombasa city is currently experiencing traffic congestion on all the major road arteries
linking it to adjoining towns and counties. With the growing population and freight ton-
nage handled at the port of Mombasa, both passenger and freight traffic is anticipated to
rise leading to more traffic congestion pressure on the roads. In order to address this im-
pending traffic snarl on the roads, there is need to develop a new safe and reliable
transport mode, which will increase passenger transport capacity and at the same time
facilitate intermodal interchange at important nodal points.
The Kenya Vision 2030 gives the perspective for development of efficient mobility of
people in the cities of Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu and their environs.
The challenges of climate change call for sustainable transport solutions and the rail
mode of transport is friendly to the environment, damaging less per person moved in
comparison with other modes of transport.
In consideration of the above, KR which organization is charged with rail development
as a Government Agent in the Vision 2030, has decided to facilitate stakeholders con-
sultations. In addition, KR plans to undertake studies necessary for development of a
modern metropolitan Commuter rail network within Mombasa city and with linkages
with principal urban centres in the surrounding counties in the coast region.
2.6 Objectives of the Study

The overall objective of the assignment is to advise on the type, nature, location and
scope of an efficient, safe, cost effective and environmentally sustainable railway
transport system that will meet the transport demand of Mombasa City and adjoining
counties as envisaged under Vision 2030 and shall be expandable to meet needs up to a
50 year horizon.
The expected results of the study are:
i. Market transport demand;
ii. Identify possible metropolitan railway routes within Mombasa City/County and
those to connect neighbouring County headquarters and Lamu Port;
iii. Examine technical, economic and financial feasibility
iv. Recommend suitable railway infrastructure options and operating equipment

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v. Propose possible development, financing and operational options.
2.7 Background Information about Kenya
2.7.1 Kenya’s Macro-Economic Setting

Kenya’s economy recorded high growth rates of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
averaging 6.6% per annum during the immediate post-independence years (1964-1973)
and towards the end of that decade. Deceleration of this growth, which started in the late
1970s, continued until 2002 when the economy registered a record negative growth rate
of 0.2%. During the years 1997-2002 economic growth declined steadily with GDP re-
cording an average annual growth rate of only 0.9%, against a population growth rate of
2.9% per annum. The economy has been on a recovery path since 2003 when real GDP
grew by only 0.5% to 6.1 % in 2007. However, due to post election violence in 2008,
the economy grew by a mere 1.6% in 2008 and 2.6% in 2009. Growth in 2009 was
mainly supported by resurgence in tourism, building and construction and transport and
communication sectors. Key sectorial GDP contribution to the economy were agricul-
ture and forestry 24.4%; wholesale and retail trade 10%; transport and communication
9.8% and manufacturing 9.5%.
Among the key factors contributing to the economic decline were poor infrastructure,
particularly bad roads, inadequate energy supply, inadequate water supply, weak institu-
tional framework and poor performance of the major sectors of the economy namely:
agricultural and manufacturing sectors, and poor macro-economic management.
2.7.2 Project History: Initial Concept Proposal

KRC proposes the development of a commuter rail infrastructure that will meet the pro-
jected transport demand and is in consonance with vision 2030 objectives. The proposed
infrastructure planning, design and development should be geared to providing integrat-
ed transport networks that have intermodal and interchange facilities at major transport
nodal points.
The selected route should traverse high population density conurbations, major tourist
destinations, and all areas with a high potential for the generation passenger traffic.
The feasibility study for new standard gauge commuter corridors should, where possible
be integrated with the proposed standard gauge line from Mombasa City to Malaba, on
the Kenya/Uganda border and Lamu to South Sudan.
The proposed lines shall address two principal areas and may be configured differently
or be of different designs in order to meet the specific local needs and infrastructure
constraints. The two areas are:
i. Rail transport within Mombasa City and immediate environs;
ii. Rail transport to link adjoining County headquarters or major economic centers
and Lamu port.
In undertaking the assignment the Consultant shall examine amongst other routes and
without limitation whatsoever the following routes:
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i. Miritini - Dongo Kundu-Ramisi;

ii. Mombasa Station-Kisauni Ferry-Mtwapa-Kilifi;
iii. Mazeras-Kaloleni-Takaungu;
iv. Use of existing Mombasa-Mariakani-Voi railway corridor.
v. Mombasa Central station to Moi International Airport.
The equipment proposed shall be cost effective, efficient, environmentally friendly and
sustainable. The study shall consider both diesel, electric powered cars and other clean
energy options, with engineering characteristics or specifications that satisfy the local
environmental and cultural requirements but with due consideration to safety, moderni-
zation and efficiency.
The Consultant shall be required to identify similar railway systems and benchmark the
proposed system with contemporary World best practice.
2.8 Authorities
The following authorities, among others, were contacted during the preparation of the
project:-
Table 2.1: Authorities
Organisation Web
Ministry of Transport www.transport.go.ke
Ministry of Environment and Mineral Resources www.environment.go.ke/
Kenya railways corporation www.krc.co.ke/home.asp
Kenya roads board www.krb.go.ke/
Kenya Ports Authority www.kpa.co.ke
Kenya Airports Authority www.kaa.co.ke
Mombasa Municipality Authority www.mombasamunicipal.org
Kenya Pipeline Corporation www.kpc.co.ke
Kenya Roads Board www.krb.go.ke
Kenya National Highways Authority www.kenha.go.ke
Kenya Urban Roads Authority www.kura.go.ke
Kenya Rural Roads Authority www.kerra.go.ke
Water Resources Management Authority www.wrma.or.ke
Kenya Wildlife Service www.kws.org
National Environmental Authority NEMA www.nema.go.ke/
Communications Commission of Kenya CCK www.cck.go.ke

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3 MARKET STUDY AND TRAFFIC DEMAND FORECAST
3.1 Introduction
In this chapter, a market demand analysis will be conducted and the future demand over
a period of 30 years will be forecasted based on qualitative and quantitative macro-
economic data of the existing situation in the Mombasa area. Thereby, different factors
that influence passenger transport demand will be pointed out and quantified to facilitate
future demand analyses.
3.2 Methodical Approach

The market study and traffic demand forecast aim to estimate as realistically as possible
current and future traffic demand in the study area. The analysis consists of three work
steps (see Fig. 3.1). In Step 1, the current situation is analysed to build up a sound basis
for the further study. In Steps 2 and 3, future traffic volume will be estimated. Thereby,
it will be distinguished between two scenarios: Step 2 describes the situation without a
railway network, while Step 3 addresses the situation assuming the implementation of
the planned railway project. In the following, the three steps are explained in more de-
tail.
Figure 3.1: Work Steps of Market Study and Traffic Demand Forecast
STEP 1: Evaluation of Actual Traffic Network and Volumes (Market Study)

Goal of Step 1 is to carefully evaluate current means of transport and travel behaviour,
as well as specific local conditions of the study area. This is necessary to prepare a well-
founded estimate of the effects of the provision of new transport services, in this case
the intended commuter railway project. Consequently, the findings of the market study
will form the basis of the following demand analysis.
Data collection in step 1 is carried out by in situ qualitative surveys and traffic counting.
The data collected is thereupon being evaluated and processed, as is shown in the fol-
lowing list of detailed work steps.

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Detailed Tasks of Work Step 1:

a. Description of road and public transport network
b. Estimation of the modal split (distinguishing between rural and urban areas)
c. Counting of traffic volumes at defined cross sections (including Matatu and bus
traffic)
d. Evaluation of trip purposes, average duration, and cost
e. Evaluation of passenger-km, which are currently travelled per day/year in the
catchment area of planned railway stations (Paxkm/year)
STEP 2: Evaluation of Forecasted Traffic Volume without Railway Project
Due to macro-economic and social development, as well as public and individual devel-
opment projects, trip numbers, distances and modes will change in the future. Step 2
aims to forecast these changes by evaluating economic and social factors. The detailed
tasks are displayed in the following.
a. Calculation of population increase in the catchment area, based on UN figures of
population growth (distinguishing between rural and urban areas)
b. Estimation of economy growth as a factor for future changes in travel behaviour
c. Evaluation of planned changes in infrastructure and land use, except from rail-
way
d. Estimation of changes in modal split, average travel distance, and total number
of trips in catchment area
e. Calculation of passenger-km (Paxkm/year)
STEP 3: Evaluation of Forecasted Traffic Volume with Railway Project
The aim of Step 3 is to estimate future passenger demand of the projected commuter
railway system over a period of 30 years. As tariff structure and operation schedule
have not yet been decided, main focus will be laid on the demand side. However, this
data will later support setting up an appropriate operating system and calculating the
profitability of the project.
To achieve a forecast as sound as possible, the findings of the market study (current
means of transport and travel behaviour, as well as specific local conditions of the study
area) form the basis of the calculation of future traffic demand. Connected with popula-
tion figures and growth estimates, these data are extrapolated and provide information
on future demand of the system.
The implementation of a commuter railway system will thereby increase traffic demand
in two ways: On the one hand, trips will be shifted from other modes of transport, such
as bus or Matatu. On the other hand, new trips will be generated as remote areas now
enjoy better transport connections to/from the city centre, as well as within each other,
which might lead people to commute and/or to change their place of residence (see Fig.

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3.2).Fig. 3.3 exemplarily compares the areas from which the city centre can be reached
in less than 45 minutes with and without railway.
Figure 3.2: Increase of Traffic Demand in Chatchment Area (Demand Forecast)
Figure 3.3: Increased Area with Travel Time To Centre < 45 min. due to Railway
(exemplary)
The detailed tasks of Work Step 3 are displayed in the following. The results from the
demand forecast will also be the basis for the economic analysis of the project as well as
for the design of the future operating system.
a. Evaluation of trips to be shifted from existing modes to the railway system
b. Distribution of estimated total trips among the assessed lines and route sections
c. Evaluation of the assessed lines/corridors regarding the passenger demand
d. Calculation of passenger-km (Paxkm/year)

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3.3 Description of the Existing Situation

The current population, economy and traffic situation is the basis for a future passenger
demand forecast of the project. In the following the actual status is described.
3.3.1 Geography
The Mombasa region is characterized by the major city situated on the island with East
Africa most important port and sub-centres situated along the north and south coast of
Mombasa.
Figure 3.4: Map of Mombasa Island
Major industrial and logistical developments of Mombasa are situated at the north west-
ern area of the island where also the connection to Nairobi is established.
The whole region is influenced by the bay situation and its limited possibilities connect-
ing the districts and sub centres.

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Figure 3.5: Map of proposed lines in the Mombasa Region
3.3.2 Population and Economy

With approx. 900,000 inhabitants, Mombasa is the second largest city in Kenya. The
surrounding counties are only sparsely populated (see Figure 3.6).
Mombasa is a major trade centre and home to the largest seaport in East Africa, the
Kilindini Harbour. The harbour plays a crucial role in the economy not only of Kenya,
but also of other eastern African countries.

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Mombasa is an important centre of coastal tourism. Other economic activities in the

province include trade and commerce, manufacturing, fishing, and agriculture. Momba-
sa also counts with an oil refinery and a cement factory.
Despite this promising conditions, Mombasa’s economy could not make yet use out of
its significant potential. Infrastructure is decaying and about one-third of the city’s pop-
ulation lives below the poverty line. Most of the urban poor live in unplanned settle-
ments spread across the city.
Figure 3.6: Population Distribution in and around Mombasa
3.3.3 Travel behaviour

The travel behaviour of the population describes the average frequencies and distances
as well as selected modes and reasons for the realized trips.
Analysis of existing studies for the region showed that the travel behaviour in the
catchment area is quite unclear due to missing studies or scientific investigations. For
this reason assumption, adoptions of other regions have to be made and matched with
observations which have been made during the field trip.
3.3.3.1 Travel frequencies

In developed countries the average person generates about 3.5 trips per day. These in-
clude trips for work, shopping, education and spare time.

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Due to a lower economic development and the structure of housing / working routes,
and the limited number of trips for spare time and shopping, a slightly lower figure has
been assumed for the catchment area of Mombasa; and a lesser value for the rural areas..
Urban areas: 3 trips per day
Rural areas: 2 trips per day
3.3.3.2 Travel reasons

The UITP Study “Report on statistical indicators of public transport performance in Af-
rica” shows that travel reasons in Nairobi are mainly caused by trips to home and to
work. It can be assumed that in Mombasa City this distribution is comparable but in the
rural surroundings in the area the percentage of work and others will be less due to the
agricultural characteristic of the region.
Source: UITP, “Report on statistical indicators of public transport performance in Africa”JICA Study
2006
Figure 3.7: Composition of travel mode for Nairobi
3.3.3.3 Travel modes

Analysing the public transport market in the Mombasa region showed that most trips are
done by private non-motorized modes (walking, bicycle) or by public transport. This is
had been expected due to the low availability of private cars in Kenya (10.3 cars per
1.000 people) and the low average income of the population.
The choice which mode will be taken for a trip depends mainly from the availability, the
cost of transport and the required time for the trip. Studies in Nairobi showed that the
preferred mode is walking followed by Matatu services and private cars.
This result reflects the urban structure of Nairobi and the relatively good developed
Matatu system. For Mombasa this can be adopted only for the City region. The outskirts
and even more in the rural regions walking and two wheeled modes have a much bigger
percentage of the overall share when on the other hand private cars have a smaller share.
This was also observed during the field trip of the consultant.

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Source: Githui John Ngatia,The Structure of Users’ Satisfaction on Urban Public Transport Service in
Developing Country: the Case of Nairobi
Figure 3.8: Travel modes in Nairobi
Adopting the above shown distribution of transport modes to the Mombasa Region a
slightly different modal share has been assumed, and cross checked with observations of
the consultant and selective surveys.
Modal share 2013

School bus Railway
Bus 3% 0%
1%
Mat at u
30%
Walking
49%
pr ivat e car
10%
Pik iPiki
2%
Mot orbik e Bicycle
BodaBoda 2%
1%
2%
Walking Bicy cle BodaBoda Mot orbike Pik iPik i priv at e car Mat at u Bus School bus Rail way
Figure 3.9: Modal Share Mombasa Region 2013
3.3.3.4 Travel distances

The purpose and the used mode for a trip are in a close relationship with the average
travel distances per trip. These figures are assumed and based on experience from other
regions.

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70
Railway
60
average travel speed (km/h)
Bus (Long
50
Distance)
40
Private Car
30 Motorbike
PikiPiki
Matatu
20
School Bus
10 Bicycle
BodaBoda
Walking
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
average travel distance (km)
Figure 3.10: Average trip distance and travel speed per mode
3.3.4 Transport networks

The city of Mombasa and the surrounding towns are served by road, air and water
transport. The various transport networks and their characteristics are discussed below.
3.3.4.1 Road Network

The coastal region is served with a fairly dense road network. The classified roads
A109, A14 highways connect Mombasa to Nairobi and Tanzania, respectively, while
the B8 northward road links Mombasa to Malindi and Lamu and extends towards the
border with Somali. Several class C, D and E roads also link up several other urban cen-
tres in the region (see Figure 3.11).

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Source: Open Street Map 2013

Figure 3.11: Transportation Network around Mombasa and the Surrounding Towns
3.3.4.1.1 Lamu County:

Lamu County has a low road network density, with the C112 road being the main road
that is used to access Lamu town and the nearby centres. The road starts from the West
with its intersection with B8 and ends at the shores of Indian Ocean in the East.
3.3.4.1.2 Kilifi County:

The B8 road is the main trunk road connecting Mombasa to Kilifi and Malindi. Howev-
er, unlike Lamu, Kilifi County has a fairly dense road network as there are several Class
C and D roads traversing through the county and connecting Kilifi town to the surround-
ing rural areas. The B8 road is programmed for rehabilitation from Malindi to Garissa
and is expected to further improve connectivity of the region to North Eastern region.
3.3.4.1.3 Mombasa County:

Mombasa County has a relatively high density road network, with the international A14
and B8 roads connecting it to the other Counties and towns. Several Class C and D
roads connect the town to nearby urban centres and sub-urban areas, such as Mazeras
and Mariakani. The Mombasa central area is served by several streets and lanes.
3.3.4.1.4 Kwale County:

Road A14 traverses through Kwale County to the neighbouring Tanzania. The county
has moderately dense road network that connects Kwale to the surrounding urban cen-
tres, and beach hotels. The Kenya Rural Roads Authority is currently studying the fea-
sibility of constructing a new beach road link from the Shelly Beach through the south
coast to Diani, and further on to Chale Island.
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3.3.4.2 Pedestrian traffic

Proper networks dedicated for pedestrians exist only in the city and town areas where
sidewalks are installed. Usually pedestrians use the road shoulders or walk on unpaved
paths by the road sides.
Figure 3.12: Typical pedestrian condition in rural area
3.3.4.3 Bicycle traffic

Dedicated bicycle lane or networks do not exist in the catchment area. Cyclists use the
road or the road edges and paths. Figure 3.13 shows a rural road with pedestrian and bi-
cycle traffic on the side strip.
Figure 3.13: Rural road with pedestrian and bycicle traffic on side strip

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3.3.4.4 Public Transport Network

The public transport network is road based, both in the urban and rural areas. The urban
public transport services are provided by Matatus, taxis, and recently by three-wheelers
(Tuk-Tuks), motor cycles and bicycle services. Urban services are deregulated and fully
privatised. Large buses provide inter city services and normally operate on timetables.
The main mode of passenger transport is the Matatu (privately-owned mini/midi-bus)
which is extremely abundant in Kenya and most of the local people in the region use
them to move around the towns and their suburbs. Tuk-tuks and Boda-Bodas are also
widely used to move around the town centre and the nearby residential areas.
Due to the unregulated structure of these systems there are no fixed stops or stations.
For Matatus serving long distance connections bus stations exist in Mombasa and other
towns.
The various public transport modes are further discussed below with pictures showing
the typical vehicles used.
3.3.4.4.1 Matatu
Most used public transport mode with a capacity of 14 passengers per vehicle and vari-
able timetables and price structures. They are generally used for short and long distance
trips also for transport of small goods. Figure 3.14 is a picture the typical Matatu vehi-
cle.
Figure 3.14: Matatu
3.3.4.4.2 Tuk-Tuk
This is the public transport mode with a carrying capacity of 3 passengers. It serves as a
taxi mainly within urban areas where there are paved roads. It is used for short inner

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city distance trips mostly in the Mombasa city. The figure below is a picture of a Tuk-
Tuk.
Figure 3.15: Tuk_Tuk
3.3.4.4.3 Motorcycle
Motorcycles are used either as private modes or as a public transport mode (motor-taxi).
They are used for short and medium distance trips in the city and rural areas. The figure
below is a picture of a typical motor cycle taxi, often known as Boda-Boda.
Figure 3.16: Motorcycle taxi
3.3.4.4.4 Bicycle taxi

Bicycles are used either as personal travel vehicles or for public transport (Piki-Piki).
Like the motorcycles, they are used for short distance trips in the city and the rural are-
as. The figure shows a typical bicycle taxi.

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Figure 3.17: Bicycle Taxi
3.3.4.4.5 Railway
Passenger railway has got a low share of the overall modal split of public transport in
the Mombasa region.
Actually two overnight passenger trains from Nairobi via Voi are running every week.
This service covers more or less the tourism and long distance market for passenger
transport. Limited influence in the commuter market can be expected by serving the
Mazeras station.
Ticket prices are higher than parallel running bus services which also reduces the actual
demand on this line.
3.3.4.4.6 Air traffic

The Kenyan coastal region is served by two major airports. The Moi International Air-
port in Mombasa and Malindi Airport in Malindi, which is a medium sized airport. Ad-
ditionally Lamu has an airport with a high percentage of touristic services.
Moi international airport is located in Port Reitz area, also known locally as Chaani ar-
ea, on the mainland metropolitan area. Flights to Nairobi and other Kenyan, European
and Middle Eastern destinations depart from the airport.
Besides, Mombasa and other coastal towns, and Nairobi are well-connected by char-
tered flights operated via Wilson airport in Nairobi.
Further airstrips are located in
Ukunda with mostly touristic flights,
Bamburi which has no scheduled airline services at the moment
Mackinnon Road Airport which also has no scheduled airline services at the moment
and
Voi Airport close to the Tsavo National Park without scheduled airline services.

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Summarizing it can be said that air traffic has got a low influence in the public transport
within the Mombasa region but the airports serve as origins/destinations for passengers
due to touristic trip reasons.
3.3.4.4.7 Other modes

Besides the above described modes the ferry services from Mombasa Island to Likoni
south of the Mombasa bay have a big importance for passenger transport. Missing road
connections from the southern coast to Mombasa city cause this bottleneck.
The ferry services are operated by the Kenya Ferry Services (KFS) at Kilindini and
Mtongwe to link the Mombasa Island and south coast. The ferry service is free for pe-
destrians and cyclist, but a graduated charge is payable for motor vehicles.
Services are regularly about every 20 min in peak time. Due to the limited capacity and
the high demand of passengers and goods on this line heavy congestion and waiting
times up to three hours were observed.
Figure 3.18: Likoni Ferry
3.3.5 Traffic Data Collection

Traffic volume counts for 12-hours and 24-hours were conducted from 19th - 22nd
March 2013 along some main road transport links
3.3.5.1 Current Traffic Volumes and Passenger Modal Split

Table 3.1 summarises the average daily traffic along the road links, while Table 3.2 be-
low shows the current modal split, by traffic volumes along the main road transport cor-
ridors.

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Table 3.1: Current average daily traffic (ADT)

Pro- Station and Direction Motor- Pas- Large Bus Pick-
posed Road code cycles senger pas- up/Van
Mini- Small Large
Line cars senger /LGV
bus/ bus bus
car
Matatu
and
4WDs
1 Mombasa - Nyali 365 109 44 37 5 6 17
Bamburi
(B8) Nyali - Mombasa 468 123 49 45 3 0 23
Kisauni Mombasa - Mtwapa 1,746 3,604 691 6,079 122 77 1,338
Junction Mtwapa - Mombasa
(B8) 1,894 3017 1,119 4,971 407 145 1,012
Mombasa - Kilifi 1,736 1,894 1,062 2,070 54 54 557
Mtwapa(B8)
Kilifi - Mombasa 1,721 1,986 842 2,072 41 65 497
MtoPanga Panga - Malindi 1,148 224 182 217 112 47 201
(B8) Malindi - Panga 1,140 203 195 201 104 37 187
2 Mombasa - Likoni 1,898 539 503 303 72 2 297
Likoni (A14)
Likoni - Mombasa 1,660 497 525 266 78 0 278
3 Malindi - Lamu 1,898 539 503 303 72 2 297
Lamu (B8)
Lamu - Malindi 1,660 497 525 266 78 0 278
4 Mombasa - Chang-
1,428 1,740 276 997 175 53 482
Kwahola amwe
(C110) Changamwe - Mom-
1,683 2,255 307 1,506 150 42 561
basa
Kombani Mombasa - Kwale 403 154 75 149 35 13 80
(C106) Kwale - Mombasa 409 194 74 149 31 9 83
Ramisi - Likoni 159 61 42 118 12 22 30
Mrima (A14)
Likoni - Ramisi 166 53 30 107 9 19 27
Kwahola Airport - Changamwe 2,016 1,340 201 1,772 99 114 274
(C110) Changamwe - Airport 1,838 947 164 1,431 85 41 187
5 Mazeras Kaloleni - Mazeras 973 146 40 327 34 13 79
(C111) Mazeras - Kaloleni 958 143 35 341 48 4 81
Source: GA-Consultant, 2013
Table 3.2: Modal Split (%)

Road section Motorcy- Passenger Large Matatu/ Small bus Large bus Pick-
cles car passenger Minibus up/Van/L.
car, 4WD G.V
Mombasa -Nyali 65 18 7 6 1 0 3
Mombasa - 14 25 7 42 2 1 9

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Road section Motorcy- Passenger Large Matatu/ Small bus Large bus Pick-
cles car passenger Minibus up/Van/L.
car, 4WD G.V
Mtwapa
Mombasa - Kilifi 24 26 13 28 1 1 7
Panga - Malindi 55 10 9 10 5 2 9
Mombasa - Likoni 21 21 14 27 1 1 15
Mombasa - Lamu 51 15 15 8 2 0 8
Mombasa -
Changamwe 27 34 5 21 3 1 9
Mombasa - Kwale 44 19 8 16 4 1 9
Ramisi - Likoni 38 13 8 26 2 5 7
Airport - Chang-
amwe 37 22 3 30 2 1 4
Kaloleni - Mazeras 60 9 2 21 3 1 5
Source: GA-Consultant, March 2013 Field Work
From Table 3.2, the motorcycles are the majority along the roads, followed by passen-
ger cars and matatus. This modal split points to general congestion on the roads as vehi-
cle occupancies for these three traffic categories are lower compared to the large buses,
or the proposed commuter rail.
3.3.5.2 Average travel time and cost of passenger trips to main centres
The current average travel time and cost from Mombasa to surrounding areas is given in
Table 3.3 below.
Table 3.3: The average travel time & cost from Mombasa to the surrounding sub centres
Origin Destination Estimated Estimated Estimated
place place trip distance travel time trip cost (KES)
(km) (min)
Mombasa Town Tudor 4 10 30
Mombasa Town Mishomoroni 6 15 60
Mombasa Town Kisauni 6 12 60
Mombasa Town Changamwe 7 20 60
Mombasa Town Mtwapa 15 30 100
Mombasa Town Kilifi 56 50 400
Mombasa Town Nyali 5 14 50
Mombasa Town Likoni 8 30 20
Mombasa Town Mtongwe 14 35 80
Mombasa Town Kwale 60 80 600
Mombasa Town Malindi 116 120 500
Mombasa Town Voi 180 150 400

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Mombasa Town Lamu 350 480 800

Malindi Kilifi 61 50 200
Malindi Lamu 225 180 400
Kilifi Lamu 280 240 600
Source: GA-Consultant, March 2013 Field Work
Above listed figures give a punctual view of the traffic volume situation in the catch-
ment area. Due to significant changes of volumes and routes within the daytime and
during the week and seasons these data were only used in a limited way for further rail-
way passenger estimation.
3.3.6 Outlook
The future development of the study area will be mainly influenced by the population
and the economic development as well as planned traffic infrastructure projects and
changes in the travel behaviour.
3.3.6.1 Population forecast

The population forecast is described in Section 3.4.1.
3.3.6.2 Economic development

It has been assumed that a steady growth of the Kenyan economy will remain and this
will have an influence on the travel behaviour. The economic development is directly
connected to the population growth and is reflected in the overall traffic demand. Local
economic developments are covered by infrastructure development projects and by dif-
ferences of traffic behaviour between urban and rural areas.
3.3.6.3 Planned infrastructure projects

There are various mayor infrastructure projects to be implemented in the project area in
the following years. Especially the construction of new roads and railway lines has to be
taken into account for the forecast of traffic volume for the commuter railway. But also
the development of new economic centres or the improvements of existing infrastruc-
ture are relevant as they contribute to the overall economic development of the area and
increase the demand for passenger transport. In the following, selected projects are
briefly described.
3.3.6.3.1 Lamu Port and Lamu-Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Corridor (LAPSSET):

The multinational Lamu Port and Southern Sudan Ethiopia Transport Corridor
(LAPSSET), aka “The Lamu corridor”, is a flagship-project of Kenya's “Vision 2030”
national long-term development plan, launched in 2008. The project contains the fol-
lowing sub-projects:
Lamu-Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Road
1’500 km standard gauge railway line from Lamu to Nakodok

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Oil refinery at Bargoni

Oil pipelines (Southern Sudan and Ethiopia)
Airports
Lamu Port
Resort Cities in Lamu, Isiolo and Lake Turkana.
The project has been launched in 2012. However, a detailed timeline of the project has
not been defined yet. Feasibility studies expect the project to cause an additional 2-3%
increase in Kenya's GDP by 2020. 6
Figure 3.19: LAPSSET Transport Corridor Development Plan
3.3.6.3.2 Mombasa Port Development Project:

The Mombasa Port Development Project is a Japanese ODA project agreed in 2007 to
construct a new container terminal and provide new handling facilities at the Port of
Mombasa. Thereby, the container volume of the port of Mombasa of 480,000 TEU
(2006) is expected to be increased to 990,000 TEU in 2017. The larger goal of the pro-
6
Source: http://www.cbcglobal.org/images/uploads/library/KIS2012_LAPSSET_Corridor_Silvester_Kasuku.pdf

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ject is to facilitate trade and economic development in Kenya and neighbouring coun-
tries in East Africa. The project is scheduled to end in 2015.
3.3.6.3.3 Mombasa Port Area Road Development Project:

Next to the aforementioned development of a new container terminal for the port of
Mombasa, the construction of two new roads is planned to alleviate congestion and fa-
cilitate the logistics from the new terminal. The first road, the Kipevu Link Road, will
connect the new terminal with the Northern Corridor (Mombasa-Nairobi road). The
second one, Mombasa Southern Bypass (Dongo Kundu Bypass), will connect Mombasa-
Nairobi road with Mombasa-Tanzania road, allowing to go from west to south without
entering Mombasa Island. The Southern Bypass will also pass the Dongo Kundu Port
area, where the development of a new Free Trade Zone is planned for 2010 to 2015.
The project, also financed by Japan, is expected to offload some traffic from the Likoni
Ferry crossing, especially vehicles ferrying tourists from South Coast to the Moi Inter-
national Airport and those evacuating cargo from the Mombasa port.7 The project has
been launched in 2012 and is scheduled to end in August 2018.
Figure 3.20: Mombasa Southern Bypass and Kipevu Link Road Development Plan
7
Source: http://www.jica.go.jp/kenya/english/office/topics/topics130320_06.html

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3.4 Traffic Demand Forecast
3.4.1 Passenger Demand Potential

First step to determine the passenger demand potential per line has been to identify the
number of people living in the 3km-catchment areas of the planned stations. Therefore,
a forecast of the number of inhabitants residing in the catchment areas of the projected
commuter railway has been carried out on basis of population growth rate estimates for
Kenya by the United Nations Population Division (World Urbanization Prospects: The
2011 Revision, October 2012).
Kenya Population Projection

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision, October 2012
120
Population (million)
100
80
Urban Population
60
40
Rural Population
20
—
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Figure 3.21: Kenya Population Projection
The growth rates estimated by the UN have been applied to the number of inhabitants
living within the catchment areas of the projected station locations (radius 3km). To
achieve an estimate as realistic as possible, urban and rural growth rates have been con-
sidered separately. Thereby, urban growth rates have been applied to catchment areas
with a density of more than 20’000 inhabitants per 3km radius, whereas areas with a
lower density have been considered rural.
The results of the calculation show that the number of inhabitants within the catchment
areas of the projected stations is going to increase significantly and could almost triple
within the next 40 years (see figure below). As population growth rates for urban areas
are higher than for rural areas, the passenger potential of lines passing mainly trough
urbanised areas (i.e. Likoni Ferry - Panga Line) is expected to increase significantly
faster than for lines in rural environments (i.e. Mazeras - Kaloleni - Takaunga Line).

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Population within rad. 3km around stations (accumulated)

Growth estimate based on United Nations Populations Division, World Urbanization Prospects, 2012
Total population w ithin rad. 3km around stations (thousand)
3.000
2.500
2.000
Corridor 1: Mombasa - Mtwapa - Kilifi - Malindi
1.500 Corridor 2: Malindi - Lamu
Corridor 3: Mombasa - Ramisi

1.000
Corridor 4: Mazeras - Kaloleni - Takaunga
500 Corrdior 5: Likoni Ferry - Panga
Corridor 6: Mombasa - Mazeras - Voi

0
2020 2030 2040 2050
Figure 3.22: Population Forecast: Population within 3km areas around stations
3.4.2 Traffic Volume without Railway

For estimation of future traffic volumes for the year 2045 (30 years from starting the
project) the total trip number for each transport mode has been multiplied with the as-
sumed average trip distance per mode.
Adopting the expected population development the basis for the traffic volumes has
been built up with the following input:
Population growth related to base year 1999:
Urban areas 55% (2013) – 500% (2050) and
Rural Areas 23% – 104%
It can be expected that the modal split will be different from today due to economic de-
velopment. The following changes from 2013 till 2045 have been assumed. In Figure
3.23 the total distribution of trips per mode can be seen from 2013 till 2045.

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Changes in modal split 2009 - 2045
6,00%
5,00%
5,00%
4,00%
3,00%
2,00%
2,00%
1,00%
1,00%
0,00% 0,00% 0,00%
0,00%
Walking Bicycle BodaBoda Motorbike PikiPiki private car Matatu Bus School bus Railway
-1,00% -0,50% -0,50%
-2,00%
-3,00%
-3,00%
-4,00%
-4,00%
-5,00%
Figure 3.23: Modal split changes 2009 - 2045
Total Trips per Day per Mode of Transport

(Without Railway Project)
Walking Bicycle BodaBoda
Motorbike PikiPiki private car
Matatu Bus School bus
18'000'000
16'000'000
14'000'000
12'000'000
10'000'000
8'000'000
6'000'000
4'000'000
2'000'000
Figure 3.24: Daily trips per transport mode 2020 – 2050

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Table 3.4 shows the development of yearly trips and travelled passenger kilometre for
the catchment area in the Mombasa Region.
Table 3.4: Traffic volumes in catchment area 2013, 2020 and 2045 without railway system
2013 2020 2045
N° of trips per year (Mn) 3.8 5.7 13.8
Mn Passenger km per year 39.2 58.3 141.9
3.4.3 Traffic Volume with Railway

The installation of a railway system will bring substantially changes in the transport sys-
tem of the Mombasa Region. It can be expected that a significant percentage of the trips
will be made by railway, shifted from other modes.
The railway system enables the people to travel in a safe, reliable and fast way which
makes it more attractive than other traffic systems.
Major influence factors for using a railway system are
Travel time from the starting point to the destination point (this includes also the fre-
quency of the train services)
Reliability in terms of punctuality and safety
Price compared to other alternative modes
This study does not have a direct influence on these components but assumes that stand-
ards of other railway system worldwide will be adopted. Comparable systems in West-
ern Europe, Asia and other countries can reach a share of about 7% of the overall pas-
senger travel in urban areas. This has been assumed to happen in the Mombasa area as
well once the system is in full extension and full operation. Until the system is under
full operation a ramp up of 1 – 4% (2013 – 2045) for rural areas and 2 – 7% for urban
areas has been calculated.
Trips will be shifted from the following modes by a certain percentage of the overall
share:

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Trip s hifts to railw ay s ys tem
8,00%
7,00%
7,00%
6,00%
5,00%
4,00%
3,00%
2,00%
1,00%
0,00%
0,00%
Walking Bicycle BodaBoda Motorbike PikiPiki private car Matatu Bus School bus Railw ay
-1,00% -0,50% -0,50% -0,50% -0,50%
-1,00% -1,00% -1,00%
-2,00%
-2,00%
-3,00%
Figure 3.25: Trip shifts to railway system (2045)
The main source of shifted traffic will be the Matatu system due to higher safety, shorter
travel time and the assumption that this system will have significant problems to serve
the traffic demand of the future population of the Mombasa area.
But also the other modes for short and long distance trips will lose their proportion.
The ramp-up of the future railway system users is shown in the next figure. According
to the total railway km built, the number of passengers is increasing. But also after final-
ising the whole network it will take some years until the people will take advantage of
the network.
Estimated Trips per Day and km Built
(Railway only)
1.000.000 700 km
900.000
600 km
800.000
700.000 500 km
600.000 400 km
500.000
400.000 300 km
300.000 200 km
200.000
100 km
100.000
0 0 km
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
TOTAL TRIPS PER DAY Total km build
Figure 3.26: Ramp-up of trips acording to built railway infrastructure

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The calculated future passenger numbers for the railway system reflect those people
starting their trip at a certain station and return on the same day to that station. Destina-
tions are not known in detail at this stage of the project and it was assumed that 90% of
all trips will be made to the city centre area and 10% within a radius of 2 stations to the
origin station. The average trip distance with the railway system was assumed by 20 km
once the system is fully in operation.
Total Passenger Trips per Year per Line

350
Millions
Malindi - Lamu Line

300
250 Mazeras - Kaloleni - Takaunga

Line
200 Likoni Ferry - Panga Line
150
Mombasa - Mazeras - Voi Line
100
Mombasa -Mtwapa - Kilifi -
50 Malindi Line
Mombasa - Ramisi Line
0
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
Figure 3.27: Total passengers per year and line. Traffic volumes in catchment area of the
railway system in 2013, 2020 and 2045

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Mombasa - Mazeras - Voi Corridor
Likoni Ferry - Panga Corridor
Status as of June
2013. Later chang- Mazeras - Kaloleni - Takaunga Corridor
es to the number,
location, or name
of stations are pos-
sible. Though, they
are not expected Mombasa - Ramisi Corridor
have significant
impact on the de-
mand potential de-
termined.
Malindi - Lamu Corridor
Mombasa -Mtwapa - Kilifi - Malindi Corridor
Figure 3.28: Passengers per day and route section in 2045

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The following table displays the load per route section in daily passengers at cross sec-
tion between the stations for different years. (numbers at stations represent the number
of cross section between stations). D indicate stations that serve two lines.
Table 3.5: Passengers per day, detailed route section in 2020/30/45
2020 2030 2045
Corridors Stations Passengers per day at cross sections
1 Mombasa - Ramisi Corridor

Mombasa Mainstation 15'883 80'911 237'019
D Makupa 8'508 43'339 126'957
Chaani 6'410 32'654 95'657
MOI International Airport 5'306 27'032 79'186
Tsunza 27'204 79'691
Dongo Kundu 26'665 78'113
Likoni 8'661 25'372
Magaoni 8'191 23'995
Waa 7'639 22'376
Tiwi 7'338 21'497
Ukunda 843 2'469
Mwabungu 717 2'099
Gazi 455 1'332
Msambweni 102 298
Ramisi
2 Mombasa -Mtwapa - Kilifi – Malindi Corridor

Mombasa Main station 10'894 55'496 162'569
Kisauni 6'530 33'263 97'440
D Bamburi 5'614 28'600 83'781
Utange 4'214 21'466 62'883
Mtwape 2'993 15'248 44'669
Mwamba 14'673 42'983
Kibaoni 14'448 42'324
D Takaungo 14'217 41'648
Kilifi 9'475 27'755
Mtondia 9'159 26'830
Watamu 8'931 26'163
Gede 8'695 25'472
Malindi
3 Mombasa - Mazeras – Voi Corridor

D Makupa 5'149 26'231 76'842
Changamwe 3'816 19'439 56'945

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2020 2030 2045

Corridors Stations Passengers per day at cross sections
Mikindani 1'807 9'204 26'963
Miritini 715 3'642 10'670
Mazeras 134 681 1'994
Mariakani 425 1'246
Maji Ya Chumvi 376 1'100
Samburu 317 928
Taru 299 875
Mackinnon Road 279 816
Bachuma 274 802
Maungu 250 734
Voi
4 Likoni Ferry - Junda – Bamburi Corridor

Likoni Ferry 27'670 81'055
D Makupa 25'856 75'742
Junda 14'008 41'036
D Bamburi
5 Mazeras - Kaloleni – Takaunga Corridor

D Mazeras 2'226 6'521
Mkapuni 1'809 5'298
Kambe 1'425 4'175
Kaloleni 994 2'910
Kidutani 648 1'898
D Takaungu
6 Malindi - Lamu Corridor

Malindi 439 1'287
Gongoni 280 819
Garsen 85 248
Witu 47 137
Mkunumbu 32 94
Hindi
3.5 Appraisal of the Operating System

Knowing the number of people using the railway system enables to estimate the re-
quired train operation services.
For the maximum required number of train vehicles the time period with the highest
passenger demand was analysed. This is usually the morning peak when most of the
passengers want to travel to the city centre for work or for education and business rea-
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sons like market visits. A 10% proportion of the daily ridership is a common number in
other regions and goes conform with the traffic counting which were made in the Mom-
basa region.
Maximum passenger numbers were found in the Mombasa – Mtwapa – Kilifi - Malindi
Corridor cross section with about 8 thousand passengers travelling in one hour towards
the city centre. Assuming a train configuration can cover 1.000 passengers, 7 services
(every 8.5 minutes) per peak hour are required to cover the demand. This is the maxi-
mum passenger demand for the year 2045 with the above described input data.
Table 3.6: Estimation of required train services
Daily Railway
required
Trips 2045 10% Peak Hour
Corridor Population 2045 services
max. Cross to Centre
per hour
Section
Mombasa - Ramisi Line 1’969’024 113’243 5’662 6
Mombasa -Mtwapa - Kilifi - Malin-
2’249’812 145’018 7’250 7
di Line
Mombasa - Mazeras - Voi Line 913’693 68’500 3’425 3
Likoni Ferry - Panga Line 1’120’588 72’291 3’614 4
Mazeras - Kaloleni - Takaunga
141’444 5’792 289 1
Line
Malindi - Lamu Line 214’327 1’143 57 1
Total 6’608’889 405’989 20’299 23
Due to different demand levels on the corridors it has to be observed very detailed at
which cross section a decrease of the passenger demand is given to plan an optimal train
operation concept with short running trains or overlapping lines makes sense. Detailed
descriptions of the passenger demand for each corridor are given in Figure 3.28.
To calibrate those figures it is highly recommended to build up in further planning
phases a proper traffic model which includes the detailed destination specification of the
passengers which can be made by passenger interviews. In the model on hand the desti-
nations are determined by using the above described method that 90% are travelling to
the city centre area and 10% within an area of 2 stations from the origin station.

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4 ROUTE LOCATION AND ALIGNMENT
4.1 Introduction
This chapter proposes alignment standards for the commuter railway system, considers
interdependencies to other projects in development and defines the corridors of the
study.
The initially identified corridors listed in Section 1.4 have now been adjusted to reflect
the findings of the field trip and the advancement of the study, resulting in the following
lines:-
4.2 Alignment Standards

There are no alignment standards defined in the ToR. Alignment standards have a high
impact on the request of earthworks and civil buildings in hilly and mountainous re-
gions and therewith a high impact on the estimated costs. We propose to use for the
study the following alignment standards for the commuter railway system:-
Table 4.1: Alignment Standards
Element Plain region Hilly region Mountainous region
Design speed 120 km/h 100 km/h 80 km/h
Minimum hor. radius 650 m 450 m 300 m
Maximum slope 10 ‰ 20 ‰ 25 ‰
Min. vertical radius 5’800 m 4’000 m 2’600 m
In plain regions the design speed can also be increased to allow fast train operations
where applicable. The alignment standards will be discussed and agreed during the
workshop in the inception phase.
4.3 Other projects in connection with the railway study

In the Mombasa region a number of development projects have to be considered in its
interdependencies with the new railway network.

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4.3.1 New Standard Gauge Railway Mombasa – Nairobi

The proposed Mombasa-Nairobi Standard Gauge Railway Project is the most important
railway channel in Kenya, which links the coastal city of Mombasa and the capital city
of Nairobi. The railway starts from the city of Mombasa, which is the largest port in
East Africa, and ends in Nairobi, the political, economic and cultural centre in Kenya
and a key traffic hub in East Africa. The proposed railway line passes through eight (8)
Counties: Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita-Taveta, Makueni, Kajiado, Machakos and
Nairobi. It has a total length of 485.303km consisting of 33 yards/terminals. The study
years of the project include the short-term in 2023 and the long-term in 2028.
The provided alignment of this project covers the proposed main line of Mombasa-
Nairobi Standard Gauge Railway from the Mombasa Changamwe marshaling station to
the Nairobi Embakasi marshaling station.
The new Standard Gauge Railway Mombasa – Nairoby is base of the proposed Momba-
sa – Mazeras – Voi Commuter Railway Corridor.
4.3.2 Mombasa port development projects

There are some projects running to develop capacity of Mombasa Harbour around the
Port Reitz. There are interdependencies to be considered in planning the new railway
network:-
New Mombasa Container Terminal
Kipevu Link Road
Dongo Kundu Port Area
Dongo Kundu Free Trade Zone
Dongo Kundu Industrial Area
Mombasa Southern Bypass

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Figure 4.1: Mombasa Port Projects
4.3.3 Lamu Port Project

The Lamu Port and Lamu Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Corridor (LAPSSET) aka
The Lamu corridor is a transport and infrastructure project in Kenya that when complete
will be the country's second transport corridor. Kenya's other transport corridor is the
Mombasa port and Mombasa - Uganda transport corridor that passes through Nairobi
and much of the Northern Rift.

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The project will involve the following components:[1]

A port at Manda Bay
Standard gauge railway line to Juba (capital of South Sudan)
Road network
Oil pipelines (Southern Sudan and Ethiopia)
Oil refinery at Bargoni
Three Airports
Three resort cities (Lamu, Isiolo and Lake Turkana shores)
Key towns in the project are Lamu and Isiolo in Kenya, Juba in Southern Sudan and
Addis Ababa in Ethiopia.
Figure 4.2: Lamu Port Project

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4.4 The Corridor Study

The corridor study is based on:-
The desktop study submitted with the inception report from 11. January 2013
The Stakeholder Conference on 14. January 2013 at Mombasa
Key Field Trip in January 2013
The Corridor Study includes 6 lines as follows:-
The Corridors are described in the following chapters including the proposed alignment,
the stations and the main structures. The corridors are shown with the drawings Error!
Reference source not found.
4.4.1 Corridor 1: Mombasa – Airport – Likoni - Ramisi Corridor

The Mombasa – Airport – Likoni – Ramisi Corridor connects Mombasa CBD to the
southern coast region.
4.4.1.1 Corridor description

The corridor starts at Mombasa Main Station following the existing Meter Gauge Rail-
way up to the Makupa Causeway. The corridor leaves the old route western to the Ma-
kupa Causeway running beside the harbour area to the West with a new station Chaani
to service the northern harbour area.
The Mombasa MOI International Airport is passed by a loop along the coast following
the proposed Kipevu Link Road in a common corridor. The connection to the airport is
done by bus shuttle from the Airport Station over a distance of about 1.5 km. A new
road has to be built. A direct connection to the airport can be realised with a tunnel un-
der the airport taking advantage of the topographic situation where the airport is situated
on a hill with an altitude of about 60 m above sea level (see also section 4.4.1.5 Alterna-
tives)

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Figure 4.3: Mombasa Main Station
After passing the airport loop the proposed corridor turns to south following the Mom-
basa Southern Bypass with a direct link to the new Dongo Kundu Industrial Area in a
common corridor. Some adaptations of the alignment are necessary because of limita-
tion of the maximum slope for the railway.
Figure 4.4: The Dongo Kundu Table Mountain
After crossing the Dongo Kundu Area the corridor will have a slope to Likoni to tap in-
to this densely populated area by rail. From Likoni to the South the corridor runs along
the coast road up to the terminal station at the Sugar Factory of Ramisi.

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Figure 4.5: The Ramisi Sugar Plant Area
4.4.1.2 Stations
The total corridor length is about 86 km with following proposed stations:-
Table 4.2: Stations of the Mombasa – Airport – Likoni - Ramisi Corridor
Station Mileage Interval Rail Level
Mombasa Main Station km 0.0 21 m asl
Makupa km 1.9 1.9 km 25 m asl
Chaani km 6.1 4.2 km 40 m asl
MOI International Airport km 9.0 2.9 km 27 m asl
Tsunza km 17.6 8.6 km 23 m asl
Dongo Kundu km 23.1 5.5 km 12 m asl
Likoni km 29.8 6.7 km 28 m asl
Magaoni km 34.4 4.6 km 28 m asl
Waa km 41.2 6.8 km 29 m asl
Tiwi km 47.3 6.1 km 26 m asl
Ukunda km 53.3 6.0 km 34 m asl
Mwabungu km 62.2 8.9 km 19 m asl
Gazi km 71.3 9.1 km 30 m asl
Msambweni km 78.4 7.1 km 20 m asl
Ramisi km 87.9 9.5 km 14 m asl
asl = above sea level

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4.4.1.3 Main Structures

The corridor includes the following main structures:-
Table 4.3: Main Structures of the Mombasa – Airport – Likoni - Ramisi Corridor
Name Structure Mileage from - to Length
Makupa Causeway Embank. Km 2.9 km 3.5 600 m
Mwache Creek Bridge km 12.5 km 13.3 800 m
Tsunza Viaduct Bridge km 13.3 km 15.8 2’500 m
Tsunza Causeway Embank. km 18.6 km 19.1 500 m
Bombo Creek Bridge km 19.1 km 20.7 1’600 m
Mwachema River Bridge km 49.1 km 49.4 250 m
Embank. = Embankment
4.4.1.4 Junctions
The corridor has following junctions to other corridors and railway lines:-
Table 4.4: Junctions of the Mombasa – Airport – Likoni - Ramisi Corridor
Station Mileage Connection
Mombasa Main Station km 0.0 Mombasa – Mtwapa – Kilifi – Malindi Corri-
dor
Makupa km 1.9 Likoni Ferry – Bamburi Corridor
Mombasa – Mazeras – Voi Corridor
4.4.1.5 Alternatives
There are two alternatives to be considered within this corridor:-
4.4.1.5.1 Airport Tunnel

Instead of running with a loop around the airport, this alternative crosses the MOI Inter-
national Airport by tunnelling under the airfield taking advantage of the topographic sit-
uation where the airport is situated on a hill with an altitude of about 60 m above sea
level. The tunnel with a length of about 2.4 km allows a direct connection to the airport
by an underground station below the terminal building.
Advantage: The undergoing station is the closest possible connection between railway
and airport. The tunnel allows a high effective integration of rail- and air-travel with di-
rect connections to the beach resorts in the Mombasa region.
Disadvantage: High costs for tunnel and underground station.
4.4.1.5.2 Miritini – Waa Alternative

The Miritini – Waa Alternative runs along the coast line of the creeks in the south of
Mombasa. The corridor starts at the new Miritini Station of the Mombasa – Voi line and
join the base corridor northern to Waa.

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Advantage: The Miritini –Waa – Alternative eliminates the 2 crossings of the Mwache
and the Bombo Creek along the base corridor. Since these crossings are foreseen to
build the Mombasa Southern Bypass and the proposed base corridor is following the
road alignment, the advantage of elimination of these crossings is limited.
Disadvantage: The Miritini – Waa Alternative is about 8 km longer than the base corri-
dor. The alternative runs mostly along low populated areas. Neither the Dongo Kundu
Industrial Area nor the high density populated Likoni Town is connected to the corridor.
4.4.1.6 Corridor Topology

The corridor topology shows the proposed structure of the railway line and the ar-
rangement of stations, junctions and points.
Figure 4.6: Topology of Corridor 1, Section Mombasa Main Station– MOI International Airport
Figure 4.7: Topology of Corridor 1, Section Tsunza - Tiwi

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Figure 4.8: Topology of Corridor 1, Section Ukunda – Ramisi

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4.4.2 Corridor 2: Mombasa – Mtwapa – Kilifi – Malindi Corridor

The Mombasa – Mtwapa – Kilifi – Malindi Corridor connects Mombasa to the northern
coast region. With the terminal station at Malindi the 2nd large town in the coast region
is connected to Mombasa by train. An enlargement of the corridor to the north is given
by the Malindi – Lamu corridor.

The corridor starts at Mombasa Main Station on the Mombasa Island in elongation of
the existing railway line. The new Mombasa Main Station changes from a terminal sta-
tion to a running station in the commuter railway network. The Mombasa Central Dis-
trict will be crossed by a viaduct. It is proposed to run the elevated railway line behind
the first row of houses to keep the relations of the business houses to the street fully
maintained. A gradient of the viaduct above or beside the main road would significantly
disturb these relationships. The Mombasa City Viaduct will have a length of about
1’600 m.
Figure 4.9: Mombasa Central Business District
The corridor traverses to Kisauni crossing the Mombasa Harbour by a bridge in the axis
of the former pontoon bridge. The bridge with a length of about 700 m is planned to be
constructed as a wide span steel bridge with a rail level of 31 m above sea level to allow
crossing of ships.

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Figure 4.10: Mombasa Harbour with relicts of the old pontoon bridge
In the further course the corridor is proposed to be routed at ground level with overpass-
es of crossing roads. An elevated gradient can be considered in the town of Kisauni but
preferably by an embankment instead of a viaduct to limit costs.
Figure 4.11: The Kilifi Creek
The course of the corridor up to Mtwapa is determined by the Haller Park along the
coast road and the Bamburi Airfield that must be bypassed. Up to Kilifi there are three
creeks to be traversed with bridges of a length of 300 m to 550 m. The bridges can be

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constructed by prestressed concrete with a span up to 150 m. Alternative constructions

are steel composite bridges or steel bridges which allow a wider span.
Between Kilifi and Malindi the corridor mostly follows the coast road. In the region of
Watamu / Gede two alternatives are shown. The proposed corridor crosses the Mida
Creek southern to Watamu and runs along the Watamu Peninsula beside the existing
road. Passing the station of Watamu the corridor turns to Gede and runs along the main
road to Malindi. The alternative corridor is described below.
Figure 4.12: Malindi Main Road
The terminal station is proposed to be situated between Malindi City and Malindi Air-
port. The Mombasa – Mtwapa – Kilifi – Malindi Corridor may be extended by the Ma-
lindi – Lamu corridor.
4.4.2.2 Stations
Table 4.5: Stations of the Mombasa – Mtwapa – Kilifi – Malindi Corridor
Makadara km 1.6 1.6 km 28 m asl
Kongowea km 4.1 2.5 km 25 m asl
Freretown km 6.7 2.6 km 18 m asl
Bamburi km 8.9 2.2 km 22 m asl
Utange km 11.9 3.0 km 19 m asl
Shimo la Tewa km 14.2 2.3 km 22 m asl
Mtwapa km 16.4 2.2 km 25 m asl

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Mwamba km 23.6 7.2 km 24 m asl
Kibaoni km 33.6 10.0 km 31 m asl
Takaungu km 47.6 14.0 km 27 m asl
Kilifi km 54.4 6.8 km 31 m asl
Mtondia km 60.7 6.3 km 16 m asl
Uyombo km 84.0 23.3 km 10 m asl
Watamu km 93.8 9.8 km 10 m asl
Gede km 100.0 6.2 km 23 m asl
Malindi km 113.7 13.7 km 10 m asl

Table 4.6: Main Structures of the Mombasa – Mtwapa – Kilifi – Malindi Corridor
Mombasa City Viaduct Bridge km 0.6 km 2.2 1'600 m
Mombasa Harbour Bridge km 2.2 km 3.0 800 m
Mtwapa Creek Bridge km 14.9 km 15.3 350 m
Takaungu Creek Bridge km 48.4 km 48.7 300 m
Kilifi Creek Bridge km 53.3 km 53.9 550 m
Mida Creek Bridge km 87.6 km 88.2 600 m
4.4.2.4 Junctions
Table 4.7: Junctions of the Mombasa – Mtwapa – Kilifi – Malindi Corridor
Mombasa Main Station km 0.0 Mombasa – Airport – Likoni – Ramisi Corri-
dor
Bamburi km 8.9 Likoni Ferry – Bamburi Corridor
Mombasa – Voi Corridor
Takaungu km 47.6 Mazeras – Kaloleni – Takaungu Corridor
Malindi Km 113.7 Malindi – Lamu Corridor
4.4.2.5 Alternatives
4.4.2.5.1 Ras Makawaiwa Bridge

The goal of this alternative is to establish a common bridge over the Mombasa Harbour
for this corridor 2 and corridor 4, Likoni Ferry – Bamburi (see Chapter 4.4.4). The

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bridge will be allocated at the Ras Makawaiwa near Mombasa Polytechnic University
College. The city viaduct has to be elongated along the Tom Mboya Avenue – Tom
Mboya Road – Rassini Road over about 1’800 m.
Advantage: It is only one bridge built over Mombasa Harbour to connect Mombasa Is-
land to the northern territories. The town centre of Kisauni is directly connected to the
railway line. One more Station (Politechnic University) on Mombasa Island allows a
higher service level in Mombasa CBD.
Disadvantage: The corridor 2 is guided in a loop around Mombasa CBD which reduces
attractiveness of the diameter route. The elongation of the city viaduct of about 1’800 m
balances cost reduction resulting from omission of the 2nd harbour bridge (Junda creek
bridge) along corridor 4, Likoni Ferry – Bamburi.
4.4.2.5.2 Gede Alternative

The Gede Alternative between Uyombo and Gede keeps the railway following the main
road instead of turning off to the Watamu peninsula. The alternative corridor bypasses
the Mida Creek area along the Arabuko Sokoke Forest and connects to the main corri-
dor eastern of Gede.
Figure 4.13: Mida Creek near Watamu

Advantages and disadvantages of the alternatives must be evaluated primarily from the
environmental view (refer to chapter 7.5.1). The evaluation from technical view has to
consider following points:-
Advantage: With the Gede Alternative the crossing of the Mida Creek with a bridge of a
length of about 600 m is omitted which reduces costs for the corridor.

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Disadvantage: With the alternative corridor there is no connection to Watamu town

which is one of the more interesting places to generate traffic volume along this corri-
dor. This will reduce the benefits of the railway line.

Figure 4.14: Topology of Corridor 2, Section Mombasa – Shimo la Tewa
Figure 4.15: Topology of Corridor 2, Section Mtwapa – Kilifi
Figure 4.16: Topology of Corridor 2, Section Mtondia – Malindi

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4.4.3 Corridor 3: Mombasa – Mazeras – Voi Corridor

The Mombasa – Mazeras – Voi Corridor is using the proposed Standard Gauge Railway
Mombasa – Nairobi. This alignment starts at the Changamwe Marshalling Yard and has
to be extended by a branch to Mombasa Main Station. The proposed stations of the long
distance railway to Nairobi are mostly configured as passing stations. For using with the
commuter railway the stations must be fitted up by additional tracks and passenger fa-
cilities.
4.4.3.1 Description
The corridor starts at Mombasa Main Station following the Mombasa – Airport Corridor
up to the western side of the Makupa Causeway. A new branch is built to connect the
proposed long distance railway at Changamwe Marshalling Yard. With the branch to
Mombasa Main Station there is a gap in the Mileage between the commuter railway cor-
ridor and the long distance railway Mombasa – Nairobi of about 7.5 km. The following
mileage is based on the commuter railway corridor starting at Mombasa Main Station.
Figure 4.17: Miritini Railway Station
The passing stations along the long-distance railway Mombasa – Nairobi are mostly
corresponding to the stations which are planned for commuter railway services. Criteria
for the location of the passenger stations are:
the proximity to residential areas,
the proximity to other interesting points.
Such an interesting point is e.g. the Bachuma gate of the Tsavo National Park. Situated
close to the railway line the Bachuma Station can be reached with the commuter railway
from Mombasa within 1:40h and become an attractive target for tourists in the Momba-
sa area.

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Figure 4.18: Tsavo National Park, Bachuma Gate
The terminal station for the commuter railway service in Voi is proposed to be located
close to the main street C105 to allow a good connection to the city.
Figure 4.19: C 105 Level crossing at Voi
Further adjustment of the station location has to be done with the design of the railway
line. The following table shows the corresponding stations of the commuter railway cor-
ridor and the long-distance corridor:-

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Table 4.8: Comparison of stations along the Mombasa – Mazeras – Voi Corridor
Commuter Railway Station Mileage Long Dist. Railway Station Mileage
Mombasa Main Station km 0.0
Makupa km 1.9
Changamwe km 5.4
Mikindani km 9.0 Mombasa Station km 1.0
Miritini km 12.5
Mazeras km 19.3 Mazeras km 12.0
Mariakani km 34.2 Mariakani km 25.4
Maji Ya Chumvi km 49.0 Manjewa km 39.6
Samburu km 60.3 Samburu km 51.0
Taru km 73.8 Mugalani km 65.2
Mackinnon Road km 84.6 Mackinnon Road km 78.3
Bachuma km 97.1 Miaseny km 92.2
Wangala km 106.2
Maungu km 122.9 Maungu km 118.7
Ngutini km 129.7
Voi km 152.7 Voi km 142.8
Mileage gap 7.5 km
4.4.3.2 Stations
Table 4.9: Commuter Service Stations of the Mombasa – Mazeras – Voi Corridor
Changamwe km 5.4 3.5 km 28 m asl
Mikindani km 9.0 3.6 km 58 m asl
Miritini km 12.6 3.6 km 40 m asl
Mazeras km 19.3 6.7 km 135 m asl
Mariakani km 34.2 14.9 km 207 m asl
Maji Ya Chumvi km 49.0 14.8 km 234 m asl
Samburu km 60.3 11.3 km 294 m asl
Taru km 73.8 13.5 km 353 m asl
Mackinnon Road km 84.6 10.8 km 360 m asl
Bachuma km 97.1 12.5 km 430 m asl
Maungu km 122.9 25.8 km 520 m asl
Voi km 152.7 29.8 km 570 m asl

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There are no additional main structures to be built for the Mombasa Branch and the up-
grading of the corridor for commuter railway services.
4.4.3.4 Junctions
Table 4.10: Junctions of the Mombasa – Mazeras – Voi Corridor
Mombasa Main Station km 0.0 Mombasa – Mtwapa – Kilifi – Malindi Corri-
dor
Makupa km 1.9 Likoni Ferry – Bamburi Corridor
Mombasa – Airport – Likoni – Ramisi Corri-
dor
Mazeras km 19.3 Mazeras – Kaloleni – Takaungu Corridor
4.4.3.5 Alternative
Not applicable.

Figure 4.20: Topology of Corridor 3, Section Mombasa – Mikindani

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Figure 4.21: Topology of Corridor 3, Section Miritini - Samburu
Figure 4.22: Topology of Corridor 3, Section Taru - Voi

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4.4.4 Corridor 4: Likoni Ferry – Bamburi Corridor (Mombasa Ring Corridor)

The short Likoni Ferry - Bamburi corridor establishes a ring line within the most popu-
lated districts of Mombasa.
4.4.4.1 Description
The southern terminal station of the Likoni Ferry – Bamburi corridor is situated at the
landing stage of the Likoni Ferry on the Mombasa Island. The corridor follows the
abandoned meter-gauge railway line to Makupa.
Figure 4.23: Likoni Ferry
At Makupa there is a junction to the Mombasa – Airport and to the Mombasa – Mazeras
– Voi Line. The corridor passes the southern Mombasa Island and crosses the Junda
creek to establish a 2nd connection to the northern mainland.

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Figure 4.24: Junda Creek
The northern terminal station of this corridor at Bamburi is also the connection station
to the northern Mombasa – Mtwapa – Kilifi – Malindi Corridor.
4.4.4.2 Stations
Table 4.11: Stations of the Likoni Ferry – Bamburi Corridor
Likoni Ferry km 0.0 12 m asl
Cruise Pier km 1.7 1.7 km 19 m asl
Junda km 8.4 4.1 km 25 m asl
Kengelani Road km 11.0 2.6 km 47 m asl
Mtopanga km 13.1 2.1 km 30 m asl
Bamburi km 14.8 1.7 km 22 m asl

Table 4.12: Main Structures of the Likoni Ferry – Bamburi Corridor
Junda Creek Bridge km 6.4 km 7.3 900 m

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4.4.4.4 Junctions
Table 4.13: Junctions of the Likoni Ferry – Bamburi Corridor
Makupa km 4.3 Mombasa – Airport – Likoni – Ramisi Corri-
dor
Bamburi km 14.8 Mombasa – Mtwapa – Kilifi – Malindi Corri-
dor
4.4.4.5 Alternative
In combination with alternative Ras Makawaiwa Bridge of corridor 2, Mombasa –
Mtwape – Kilifi – Malindi, the alternative joins the corridor 2 line at Polytechnic Uni-
versity.
Advantage: The junction to line 2 at Polytechnic University station omits a 2nd bridge to
the territories northern to Mombasa. The significant shortening of the corridor reduces
the necessary investments.
Disadvantage: The alternative needs a northern city viaduct along Tom Mboya Road –
Rassini Road with a length of about 1,500m. This viaduct compensates the cost ad-
vantage of omission of the Junda Creek bridge partially. The junction to corridor 2 at
Polytechnic University omits the railway corridor from Junda to Bamburi with signifi-
cant reduction of service quality in this area.

Figure 4.25: Topology of Corridor 4, Section Likoni Ferry – Junda

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Figure 4.26: Topology of Corridor 4, Section Kengelani Road – Bamburi

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4.4.5 Corridor 5: Mazeras – Kaloleni – Takaungu Corridor

The Mazeras – Kaloleni – Takaungu Corridor represents a bypass Mombasa and allows
a direct connection from the west to the north without crossing Mombasa Island. It also
establish a capable connection of Kaloleni to Mombasa.

The Mazeras – Kalolini – Takaungu Corridor is situated in a hilly region with moun-
tainous sections. The max. slope will be increased up to 25‰ and the min. radius de-
creased to 300m. The maximum speed is partially reduced to 80 km/h.
Figure 4.27: Countryside near Mkapuni

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Figure 4.28: Kambe Cement Plant
Between Mazeras and Kaloleni the railway follows the road C111 building a common
traffic corridor of railway and road. From Kaloleni to Takaungu a new corridor has to
be established. The terminal station at Takaungu is also the connection station to the
northern Mombasa – Mtwapa – Kilifi – Malindi Corridor.
Figure 4.29: Kaloleni Main Road
4.4.5.2 Stations

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Table 4.14: Stations of the Mazeras – Kaloleni – Takaungu Corridor

Mazeras km 0.0 135 m asl
Mkapuni km 11.0 km 11.0 158 m asl
Kambe km 15.9 km 4.9 203 m asl
Kaloleni km 20.5 km 4.6 200 m asl
Kidutani km 33.5 km 13.0 118 m asl
Takaungu km 51.7 km 18.2 27 m asl

Table 4.15: Main Structures of the Mazeras – Kaloleni – Takaungu Corridor
Mangata River Bridge km 6.4 km 6.6 200 m
Mleji River Bridge km 12.3 km 12.6 250 m
Dzihana River Bridge km 23.6 km 23.8 200 m
Darajani River Bridge km 25.3 km 25.7 350 m
Sinawe tributary Bridge km 46.9 km 47.1 200 m
4.4.5.4 Junctions
Table 4.16: Junctions of the Mazeras – Kaloleni – Takaungu Corridor
Mazeras km 0.0 Mombasa – Mazeras – Voi Corridor
Takaungu km 51.7 Mombasa – Mtwapa – Kilifi – Malindi Corri-
dor
4.4.5.5 Alternative
Not applicable.


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Figure 4.30: Topology of Corridor 5, Mazeras - Takaungu

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4.4.6 Corridor 6: Malindi – Lamu Corridor

The Malindi – Lamu corridor represent the extension of the Mombasa – Mtwape – Kilifi
– Malindi Corridor to the north. The total length of this corridor of about 205 km ex-
ceeds the usual distance for commuter railway services. The practicability of this corri-
dor must be reviewed considering also the low density population of the passed region.

The corridor starts at the proposed Malindi station which will become a running station
when this corridor is established. The corridor runs largely through the lowlands along
the coast line following the road to Lamu. The corridor passes the wetlands of the Tana
Delta which requires a wide circumvention to the North and a long bridge for crossing
the Tana River.
Figure 4.31: The Tana River Delta
The northern terminus is situated beneath the new Lamu Port Area must be adapted to
the detailed concept of the Lamu Port Project.
4.4.6.2 Stations
Table 4.17: Stations of the Malindi – Lamu Corridor
Malindi km 0.0 12 m asl
Gongoni km 22.0 km 22.0 18 m asl
Garsen km 102.0 km 80.0 16 m asl
Witu km 142.0 km 40.0 18 m asl

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Mkunumbi km 172.0 km 30.0 15 m asl
Hindi km 204.9 km 32.9 9 m asl

Table 4.18: Main Structures of the Malindi – Lamu Corridor
Galana River Bridge km 7.9 km 8.6 700 m
Mkonda Wa Musumarini Bridge km 48.7 km 49.0 300 m
Tana River Bridge km 103.9 km 105.1 1'200 m
Mkondo Wa Kitoka Bridge km 185.4 km 185.7 300 m
Mkonda Wa Nginda Bridge km 186.5 km 186.7 200 m
4.4.6.4 Junctions
Table 4.19: Junctions of the Malindi – Lamu Corridor
Malinde km 0.0 Mombasa – Mtwapa – Kilifi – Malindi Corri-
dor
4.4.6.5 Alternative
Not applicable.

Figure 4.32: Topology of Corridor 6, Malindi – Lamu

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4.5 Road Map for Development

For developing the railway network of Mombasa region, 12 sections within the 6 corri-
dors described above are defined. The principles for definition of the sections are:-
Splitting of the investment costs
Truncation at stations where a significant traffic volume is expected
The corridors 1 – 3 are split in 3 sections each, corridor 4 is a short corridor to be real-
ised in one piece, corridors 5 and 6 do not have intermediate stations with significant
traffic volume to make splitting reasonable. The sections are defined as follows:-
Table 4.20: Road map for development, Sections
Cor. Sec. from mileage to mileage length
1 Mombasa - Airport - Likoni - Ramisi Corridor

MOI International Air-
1.1 Makupa km 1.9 port km 9.0 7.1 km
MOI International Air-
1.2 port km 9.0 Likoni km 29.8 20.8 km
1.3 Likoni km 29.8 Ramisi km 87.9 58.1 km
2 Mombasa -Mtwapa - Kilifi - Malindi Corridor

2.1 Mombasa Main Station km 0.0 Mtwapa km 16.4 16.4 km
2.2 Mtwapa km 16.4 Kilifi km 54.4 38.0 km
2.3 Kilifi km 54.4 Malindi km 113.7 59.3 km
3 Mombasa - Mazeras - Voi Corridor

3.1 Mombasa Main Station km 0.0 Mazeras km 19.3 19.3 km
3.2 Mazeras km 19.3 Samburu km 60.3 41.0 km
3.3 Samburu km 60.3 Voi km 152.7 92.4 km
4 Likoni Ferry - Bamburi Corridor

4 Likoni Ferry km 0.0 Bamburi km 14.8 14.8 km
5 Mazeras - Kaloleni - Takaunga Corridor

5 Mazeras km 0.0 Takaungu km 51.7 51.7 km
6 Malindi - Lamu Corridor

6 Malindi km 0.0 Hindi km 204.9 204.9 km
These 12 sections have been prioritised according to the criteria length of the section,
investment costs (see Chapter 8) and expected traffic volume (see Chapter 3). A further
criterion is the development of a coherent network in each stage of system implementa-
tion; sections will only be realised, if they have connectivity to the network (no stand-
alone section). The result is the following priority list:-

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Table 4.21: Road map for development, schedule

Priority Corridor Start / Duration [month]
No Section Planning Construction Opera.
Start Duration Start Duration Start
mm/yy Months mm/yy Months mm/yy
1 3.1 Mombasa - Mazeras - Voi
Mombasa - Mazeras 10/13 18 04/15 30 10/17
2 1.1 Mombasa - Airport - Likoni - Ramisi
Makupa - Airport 07/14 15 10/15 24 10/17
3 2.1 Mombasa -Mtwapa - Kilifi - Malindi
Mombasa - Mtwapa 01/14 27 04/16 54 10/20
4 4 Likoni Ferry - Bamburi
Likoni Ferry - Bamburi 04/16 18 10/17 48 10/21
Airport - Likoni 10/15 24 10/17 60 10/22
Mazeras - Samburu 10/19 12 10/20 24 10/22
Mtwapa - Kilifi 07/20 15 10/21 30 04/24
Likoni - Ramisi 07/21 15 10/22 30 04/25
Samburu - Voi 10/21 12 10/22 24 10/24
Kilifi - Malindi 07/23 15 10/24 30 04/27
11 5 Mazeras - Kaloleni - Takaungu
Mazeras - Takaungu 10/23 18 04/25 36 04/28
12 6 Malindi - Lamu
Malindi - Lamu 10/21 30 04/24 78 10/30
The following figure shows the proposed Road Map for development as a Gantt dia-
gram showing preceding planning phase, construction phase and operation phase:-

Final Report
Corridor 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
KRC/PLM/40/2011
Priority Section Length

1 3.1 Mombasa Main Station - Mazeras 19.3 km
Mombasa - Airport - Likoni - Ramisi Line

2 1.1 Makupa - MOI International Airport 7.1 km
Mombasa -Mtwapa - Kilifi - Malindi Line

3 2.1 Mombasa Main Station - Mtwapa 16.4 km
Likoni Ferry - Bamburi Line

4 4 Likoni Ferry - Bamburi 14.8 km

5 1.2 MOI International Airport - Likoni 20.8 km
Figure 4.33: Road map for development

6 3.2 Mazeras - Samburu 41.0 km

7 2.2 Mtwapa - Kilifi 38.0 km

8 1.3 Likoni - Ramisi 58.1 km

9 3.3 Samburu - Voi 92.4 km

10 2.3 Kilifi - Malindi 59.2 km
Mazeras - Kaloleni - Takaunga Line

11 5 Mazeras - Takaungu 51.7 km
Malindi - Lamu Line

12 6 Malindi - Hindi 204.9 km
Total Length of Railway Network 623.7 km Planning Construction Operation

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5 OPERATIONAL CONCEPT
5.1 Introduction
This chapter presents an evaluation and a draft proposition for suitable operations for
the planned new commuter railway network in Mombasa, including train schedules. It
proposes train services along 6 corridors and discusses alternative options.
5.2 Network characteristics

The Kenya Railways Corporation (KRC) is planning a new commuter railway network
in the city of Mombasa. This will have the following characteristics:
Standard gauge
Total line length of approx. 600 Km
Single-track, extension to double track possible in a later phase
Not electrified, electrification possible in a later phase
No connection with the existing meter-gauge network
Exploitation with commuter MUs only
Goods and long-distance traffic will take place on the corridor in direction of Voi (-
Nairobi)
The expected level of traffic is not actually documented, as detailed traffic predic-
tions are not yet available

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5.3 Corridors
This network will consist of the following corridors:
Figure 5.1: General planned network map
Mombasa – Airport – Likoni - Ramisi (82 Km)

Mombasa – Mtwapa – Kilifi – Malindi (114 Km)
Mombasa – Mazeras – Voi (153 Km)
Likoni Ferry – Makupa – Bamburi (15 Km)
Mazeras – Kaloleni – Takaungu (52 Km)
Malindi – Lamu (205 Km)

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Figure 5.2: City of Mombasa detail map
5.4 Proposed train services

The following train services are proposed in a first phase (Line numbers are no official
numbers issued by KRC, but only internal references for this document):
5.4.1 Corridor 1: North-South corridor

Ramisi – Airport – Mombasa – Kilifi – Malindi (- Lamu)
Travel time: Approx. 3h 45minutes (plus 2h 05minutes to Lamu)
Due to the distance and the estimated travel times of both branches of this line (Momba-
sa-Ramisi: 1h 45minutes, Mombasa-Malindi: 2h), it would make sense to consider a
mixed timetable with local trains (stop at all stations) and accelerated mid-distance ser-
vices (stopping at the main stations only), particularly on the northern branch.
5.4.2 Corridor 2: Western corridor

Mombasa – Mazeras – Voi
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Travel time: Approx. 2h 15minutes
5.4.3 Corridor 3: Western ring

Mombasa – Mazeras – Kaloleni - Kilifi
5.4.4 Corridor 4: Eastern ring

Likoni Ferry – Makupa – Junda – Bamburi - Kilifi
5.5 Alternatives
5.5.1 Likoni corridor

Instead of the initially proposed route for the line Mombasa – Ramisi avoiding the town
of Likoni southwards, it would certainly make sense to let the line pass through Likoni
with a station serving the town, and eventually some stops serving the industrial zone
and the nearby harbours.
This will not cause a big travel time loss, but will allow serving a high population densi-
ty area, with a harbour and industrial development perspectives. This could also lead to
the generation of goods traffic.
5.5.2 Malindi - Lamu

The Malindi to Lamu corridor is 204 Km long (Travel time: 2h 05minutes), and runs
through an area with very low population density (e.g. between Gongoni and Garsen,
there is a stretch of 80 Km without any planned station), so its suitability as commuter
traffic line is quite questionable.
If this line would be built for other purposes (e.g. freight traffic), a combined exploita-
tion with passenger trains would be possible. Instead, these would be possibly either
long distance than commuter trains. These options should be analysed according the ex-
pected level of passenger traffic.
5.5.3 Mazeras – Kaloleni - Takaungu

This corridor also runs through an area with low population density, so its suitability as
commuter traffic line is quite questionable.
If this corridor would be built for other purposes (e.g. freight traffic), a combined ex-
ploitation with passenger trains would be possible. This option should be analysed ac-
cording the expected level of passenger traffic.

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5.6 Nodes, connections with long-distance services

It is probable that there will be long-distance services on the corridors Mombasa – Voi
(new standard-gauge line to Nairobi) and perhaps on Mombasa-Lamu (if theLamindi-
Lamu corridor will be actually built, see chapter 5.2). These trains will normally be ter-
minated at Mombasa main station, and that brings some shortcomings for their passen-
gers:
Passengers to Likoni Ferry or the Junda-Bamburi-Kilifi line (red line) must change
the train twice (in Mombasa main station and in Makupa)
Passengers to all other directions (with exception of the northern corridor to Kisauni-
Bamburi-Kilifi) will lose time as they will run twice (there and back) on the section
Makupa-Mombasa main station.
From the network map, it is clear that Makupa is the only station where all commuter
services and also the service to Nairobi are connected.

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For travellers to or from the Nairobi line, a stop in Makupa is also a better connecting
possibility for travellers to or from the airport, this saving time in comparison to a con-
nection in Mombasa main station.
For these reasons, we propose that:
Long-distance trains to or from the Nairobi corridor will make an additional stop in
Makupa before terminating in Mombasa main station.
Long-distance trains to or from Lamu (if built) will not stop only at Mombasa main
station, but will be extended to Makupa and the airport (Stabling facilities will be
necessary, ideally in the Airport to Likoni area)
Makupa can be designed as the central node for commuters and long-distance trains.
The timetables for all trains can be designed to offer good connections in Makupa ra-
ther than in Mombasa main station.
5.7 Train schedule
5.7.1 General
The following travel time tables have been developed on the basis of the distance be-
tween stations and the train speeds indicated. Allowance has been made for acceleration
and deceleration according to the line speed. Each stop is assumed to last 2 minutes (in-
cluded in the row “Interval time incl. Stop” on the following tables).
5.7.2 Mombasa – Airport – Likoni – Ramisi Service

Table 5.1: Travel Time Mombasa – Airport – Likoni – Ramisi Service
Interval
Ac-/De-
Station Mileage Interval Speed Ride time Time incl. Travel Time
celeration
Stop
Mombasa Main
00:00:49 00:00:49 00:00:49 01:46:53
Station
2.5 Km 90 km/h 00:01:40 00:01:40 00:02:29 01:46:05

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Interval
Ac-/De-
celeration
Stop
Makupa km 2.5 00:01:49 00:03:49 00:06:17 01:44:25
3.9 Km 100 km/h 00:02:20 00:02:20 00:08:38 01:40:36
Chaani km 6.4 00:01:49 00:03:49 00:12:26 01:38:16
2.9 Km 90 km/h 00:01:56 00:01:56 00:14:22 01:34:27
MOI International
km 9.3 00:01:49 00:03:49 00:18:11 01:32:31
Airport
6.9 Km 100 km/h 00:04:08 00:04:08 00:22:19 01:28:43
Tsunza km 16.2 00:02:00 00:04:00 00:26:19 01:24:34
5.5 Km 100 km/h 00:03:18 00:03:18 00:29:37 01:20:34
Dongo Kundu km 21.7 00:02:26 00:04:26 00:34:04 01:17:16
6.8 Km 120 km/h 00:03:24 00:03:24 00:37:28 01:12:50
Likoni km 28.5 00:02:53 00:04:53 00:42:20 01:09:26
4.7 Km 120 km/h 00:02:21 00:02:21 00:44:41 01:04:33
Magaoni km 33.2 00:02:53 00:04:53 00:49:34 01:02:12
6.7 Km 120 km/h 00:03:21 00:03:21 00:52:55 00:57:19
Waa km 39.9 00:02:53 00:04:53 00:57:48 00:53:58
6.0 Km 120 km/h 00:03:00 00:03:00 01:00:48 00:49:05
Tiwi km 45.9 00:02:53 00:04:53 01:05:41 00:46:05
6.1 Km 120 km/h 00:03:03 00:03:03 01:08:44 00:41:13
Ukunda km 52.0 00:02:53 00:04:53 01:13:37 00:38:10
8.9 Km 120 km/h 00:04:27 00:04:27 01:18:04 00:33:17
Mwabungu km 60.9 00:02:53 00:04:53 01:22:56 00:28:50
9.1 Km 120 km/h 00:04:33 00:04:33 01:27:29 00:23:57
Gazi km 70.0 00:02:53 00:04:53 01:32:22 00:19:24
7.0 Km 120 km/h 00:03:30 00:03:30 01:35:52 00:14:31
Msambweni km 77.0 00:02:53 00:04:53 01:40:45 00:11:01
9.4 Km 120 km/h 00:04:42 00:04:42 01:45:27 00:06:08
Ramisi km 86.4 00:01:26 00:01:26 01:46:53 00:01:26
01.46 h
5.7.3 Mombasa – Mtwapa – Kilifi – Malindi Service

Table 5.2: Travel Time Mombasa – Mtwapa – Kilifi – Malindi Service
Interval
Ac-/De-
celeration
Stop
Mombasa Main
00:01:00 00:01:00 00:01:00 02:01:21
Station
1.6 Km 100 km/h 00:00:58 00:00:58 00:01:58 02:00:21
Makadara km 1.6 00:02:26 00:04:26 00:06:24 01:59:23
2.5 Km 120 km/h 00:01:15 00:01:15 00:07:39 01:54:57
Kongowea km 4.1 00:02:53 00:04:53 00:12:32 01:53:42

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Interval
Ac-/De-
celeration
Stop
2.6 Km 120 km/h 00:01:18 00:01:18 00:13:50 01:48:49
Freretown km 6.7 00:02:53 00:04:53 00:18:43 01:47:31
2.2 Km 120 km/h 00:01:06 00:01:06 00:19:49 01:42:38
Bamburi km 8.9 00:02:53 00:04:53 00:24:41 01:41:32
5.3 Km 120 km/h 00:02:39 00:02:39 00:27:20 01:36:40
Utange km 12.1 00:02:53 00:04:53 00:24:41 01:45:55
2.1 Km 120 km/h 00:01:03 00:01:03 00:25:44 01:41:02
Shimo la Tewa km 14.2 00:02:53 00:04:53 00:32:13 01:39:59
2.2 Km 120 km/h 00:01:06 00:01:06 00:33:19 01:35:07
Mtwape km 16.4 00:02:53 00:04:53 00:38:12 01:34:01
7.2 Km 120 km/h 00:03:36 00:03:36 00:41:48 01:29:08
Mwamba km 23.6 00:02:53 00:04:53 00:46:41 01:25:32
10.0 Km 120 km/h 00:05:00 00:05:00 00:51:41 01:20:39
Kibaoni km 33.6 00:02:53 00:04:53 00:56:34 01:15:39
14.0 Km 120 km/h 00:07:00 00:07:00 01:03:34 01:10:46
Takaungu km 47.6 00:02:53 00:04:53 01:08:26 01:03:46
6.8 Km 120 km/h 00:03:24 00:03:24 01:11:50 00:58:53
Kilifi km 54.4 00:02:53 00:04:53 01:16:43 00:55:29
6.3 Km 120 km/h 00:03:09 00:03:09 01:19:52 00:50:37
Mtondia km 60.7 00:02:53 00:04:53 01:24:45 00:47:28
23.3 Km 120 km/h 00:11:39 00:11:39 01:36:24 00:42:35
Uyombo km 84.0 00:02:53 00:04:53 01:41:17 00:30:56
9.8 Km 120 km/h 00:04:54 00:04:54 01:46:11 00:26:03
Watamu km 93.8 00:02:53 00:04:53 01:51:04 00:21:09
6.2 Km 120 km/h 00:03:06 00:03:06 01:54:10 00:16:16
Gede km 100.0 00:02:53 00:04:53 01:59:02 00:13:10
13.7 Km 120 km/h 00:06:51 00:06:51 02:05:53 00:08:17
Malindi km 113.7 00:01:26 00:01:26 02:07:20 00:01:26
02.13 h
5.7.4 Mombasa – Mazeras – Voi Service

Table 5.3: Travel Time Mombasa – Mazeras – Voi Service
Interval
Ac-/De-
celeration
Stop
Mombasa Main
00:00:49 00:00:49 00:00:49 02:15:39
Station
2.5 Km 90 km/h 00:01:40 00:01:40 00:02:29 02:14:50
Makupa km 2.5 00:01:37 00:03:37 00:06:06 02:13:10
2.9 Km 90 km/h 00:01:56 00:01:56 00:08:02 02:09:33

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Interval
Ac-/De-
celeration
Stop
Changamwe km 5.4 00:01:49 00:03:49 00:11:50 02:07:37
3.6 Km 100 km/h 00:02:10 00:02:10 00:14:00 02:03:49
Mikindani km 9.0 00:02:26 00:04:26 00:18:26 02:01:39
3.5 Km 120 km/h 00:01:45 00:01:45 00:20:11 01:57:13
Miritini km 12.5 00:02:53 00:04:53 00:25:04 01:55:28
6.8 Km 120 km/h 00:03:24 00:03:24 00:28:28 01:50:35
Mazeras km 19.3 00:02:53 00:04:53 00:33:21 01:47:11
14.9 Km 120 km/h 00:07:27 00:07:27 00:40:48 01:42:18
Mariakani km 34.2 00:02:53 00:04:53 00:45:41 01:34:51
14.8 Km 120 km/h 00:07:24 00:07:24 00:53:05 01:29:58
Maji Ya Chumvi km 49.0 00:02:53 00:04:53 00:57:58 01:22:34
11.3 Km 120 km/h 00:05:39 00:05:39 01:03:37 01:17:41
Samburu km 60.3 00:02:53 00:04:53 01:08:29 01:12:02
13.5 Km 120 km/h 00:06:45 00:06:45 01:15:14 01:07:10
Taru km 73.8 00:02:53 00:04:53 01:20:07 01:00:25
10.8 Km 120 km/h 00:05:24 00:05:24 01:25:31 00:55:32
Mackinnon Road km 84.6 00:02:53 00:04:53 01:30:24 00:50:08
12.5 Km 120 km/h 00:06:15 00:06:15 01:36:39 00:45:15
Bachuma km 97.1 00:02:53 00:04:53 01:41:32 00:39:00
25.8 Km 120 km/h 00:12:54 00:12:54 01:54:26 00:34:07
Maungu km 122.9 00:02:53 00:04:53 01:59:19 00:21:13
29.8 Km 120 km/h 00:14:54 00:14:54 02:14:13 00:16:20
Voi km 152.7 00:01:26 00:01:26 02:15:39 00:01:26
02.15 h
5.7.5 Likoni Ferry – Bamburi Service

Table 5.4: Travel Time Likoni Ferry – Panga Service
Interval
Ac-/De-
celeration
Stop
Likoni Ferry 00:01:00 00:01:00 00:01:00 00:30:53
1.7 Km 100 km/h 00:01:01 00:01:01 00:02:01 00:29:53
Cruise Pier km 1.7 00:02:00 00:04:00 00:06:01 00:28:52
3.0 Km 100 km/h 00:01:48 00:01:48 00:07:49 00:24:52
Makupa km 4.7 00:02:00 00:04:00 00:11:49 00:23:04
4.2 Km 100 km/h 00:02:31 00:02:31 00:14:20 00:19:04
Junda km 8.9 00:02:00 00:04:00 00:18:20 00:16:32
2.1 Km 100 km/h 00:01:16 00:01:16 00:19:36 00:12:32
Kengelani Road km 11.0 00:02:00 00:04:00 00:23:36 00:11:17

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Interval
Ac-/De-
celeration
Stop
2.1 Km 100 km/h 00:01:16 00:01:16 00:24:52 00:07:17
Mtopanga km 13.1 00:02:00 00:04:00 00:28:52 00:06:01
1.7 Km 100 km/h 00:01:01 00:01:01 00:29:53 00:02:01
Bamburi km 14.8 00:01:00 00:01:00 00:30:53 00:01:00
00.30 h
5.7.6 Mazeras – Kaloleni – Takaungu Service

Table 5.5: Travel Time Mazeras – Kaloleni – Takaungu Service
Interval
Ac-/De-
celeration
Stop
Mazeras 00:01:00 00:01:00 00:01:00 00:49:01
11.0 Km 100 km/h 00:06:36 00:06:36 00:07:36 00:48:01
Mkapuni km 11.0 00:02:00 00:04:00 00:11:36 00:41:25
4.9 Km 100 km/h 00:02:56 00:02:56 00:14:32 00:37:25
Kambe km 15.9 00:02:00 00:04:00 00:18:32 00:34:29
4.6 Km 100 km/h 00:02:46 00:02:46 00:21:18 00:30:29
Kaloleni km 20.5 00:02:00 00:04:00 00:25:18 00:27:43
13.0 Km 100 km/h 00:07:48 00:07:48 00:33:06 00:23:43
Kidutani km 33.5 00:02:00 00:04:00 00:37:06 00:15:55
18.2 Km 100 km/h 00:10:55 00:10:55 00:48:01 00:11:55
Takaungu km 51.7 00:01:00 00:01:00 00:49:01 00:01:00
00.49 h
5.7.7 Malindi – Lamu Service

Table 5.6: Travel Time Malindi – Lamu Service
Interval
Ac-/De-
celeration
Stop
Malindi 00:01:26 00:01:26 00:01:26 02:04:51
22.0 Km 120 km/h 00:11:00 00:11:00 00:12:26 02:03:25
Gongoni km 22.0 00:02:53 00:04:53 00:17:19 01:52:25
80.0 Km 120 km/h 00:40:00 00:40:00 00:57:19 01:47:32
Garsen km 102.0 00:02:53 00:04:53 01:02:12 01:07:32
40.0 Km 120 km/h 00:20:00 00:20:00 01:22:12 01:02:39
Witu km 142.0 00:02:53 00:04:53 01:27:05 00:42:39
30.0 Km 120 km/h 00:15:00 00:15:00 01:42:05 00:37:46
Mkunumbu km 172.0 00:02:53 00:04:53 01:46:58 00:22:46
32.9 Km 120 km/h 00:16:27 00:16:27 02:03:25 00:17:53

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Interval
Ac-/De-
celeration
Stop
Hindi km 204.9 00:01:26 00:01:26 02:04:51 00:01:26
02.04 h
5.8 Staffing and organization

Three kinds of staff are envisaged for the operation of the Mombasa Commuter Rail-
way, namely station staff, maintenance staff and train staff.
The stations are manned according to their size and importance as follows:
Station Cat. 1 24
Station Cat. 2 18
Station Cat. 3 14
Station Cat. 4 11
Station Cat. 5 7
Between 600 and 800 staff in total will be required for the complete project develop-
ment
The staffing required at the maintenance facilities will grow with the number of train-
sets and length of line to be maintained, and is expected to reach a maximum of 50 per-
sons.
Each train set will be operated with a crew of 1 driver, 1 conductor, 1 attendant and 1
security guard. With two shifts and one crew on standby a total staff of 10 is required.
This will result in a total train staff in the range from 360 to 480.
Additional staffing will be required to cover management functions, marketing, eventual
freight operations, etc.
An organizational structure can only be proposed once a regulatory framework for the
new commuter railway is in place and the ownership and operational concept estab-
lished.
5.9 Maintenance concept

As any infrastructure asset, railways must keep up with periodic inspection and mainte-
nance in order to maintain their functionality and minimize the effects of infrastructure
failures that can disrupt services.
Railway capacity is fundamentally considered a network system, and as a result, many
components are causes and effects of system disruptions. The maintenance philosophy
must therefore address the system as a whole.
The maintenance shall be based on the “RAMS” (Reliability, Availability, Maintainabil-
ity, Safety) concept in order to ensure the safety, functionality and quality of the rail in-
frastructure and rolling stock throughout their life-cycles.

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6 RAILWAY TECHNOLOGY
6.1 Introduction
This chapter describes the proposed technical characteristics of the railway system. It
outlines the specifications for:
Track work, stations and maintenance facilities
Signalling, train control and communication
Electrification and power supply
Rolling stock
6.2 Trackwork, stations and maintenance facilities
6.2.1 Track work

Best practice international standards (e,g. AREMA, British Standard, Deutsche Bahn
Standard, European standards) are recommended for the trackwork. A more precise se-
lection of applicable standards can only be made in the further stages of the project.
For the feasibility study a base construction type with the following typical cross-
section is assumed for the standard gauge track.
Figure 6.1: Typical Cross-Section

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The following assumptions are made:

The axle loads for the railway vehicles will be between 17 and 20 tonnes
Prestressed concrete sleepers will be used
The width at formation level is 8.00m
The average earthwork slope (for volume calculation purposes) is 1:2
6.2.2 Stations
The stations shall be located so as to provide easy pedestrian and vehicular access, and
will include sheltered platforms and general facilities suited to the passenger volumes
and the requirements of the line operation. Junction stations shall be designed to allow
for easy flow of passengers and goods between the trains. The platforms shall be built,
as far as possible, along straight stretches of rail and their lengths shall be commensu-
rate to the planned lengths of the trains. All stations shall be planned so as to allow for a
future second track. End of section stations and crossing stations shall be built with two
tracks.
The station areas shall be suitable lit and protected with adequate fencing.
Station types:
Type 1:
Train stops, 1 platform.

Country stations with few passengers
Type 2:
Station with 2 tracks, 2 platforms (1 between the

tracks). Pedestrian gangways to the central plat-
form.
Suited for stations with train crossings or as ter-
minal station of a service. Possibility for the pas-
sengers to change the train easily from the one to
the other edge of the central platform without
crossing the tracks.
This station type will also be used for junction sta-
tions
Type 3:
Station with 2 tracks, 2 platforms outside of the

tracks. Pedestrian underground gangway between
the 2 platforms. Each platform is normally to be
dedicated to a direction of travel.
Suited for stations with heavy passenger traffic,
but with few or no passengers changing the train
to the opposite direction. Possibility for the pas-
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sengers to change the train without crossing the

tracks by using the underground gangway.
6.2.3 Maintenance facilities
6.2.3.1 General
The new commuter railway network around the city of Mombasa will need appropriate
maintenance facilities.
The new facilities shall be designed to handle the envisaged operation and maintenance
activities for rolling stock and rail infrastructure, and have a final capacity to meet the
expected maximum fleet size of commuter rail vehicles.
The activities to be carried out at the new facilities are essentially:
Daily control, interior cleaning and external cleaning
Stabling of vehicles (after or between services)
Workshop for planned maintenance and minor repairs
It will also serve as base for the future maintenance of the rail infrastructure
Initially it could serve as base for the construction of the rail infrastructure
The maintenance facilities for the rail infrastructure could later be complemented by
service centres at suitable locations along the lines, thus enabling simple railway track
maintenance work to be carried out from local bases.
The planning of the new facilities shall take into consideration the needs of the parties
involved, i.e. the operator, the maintenance organisation including subcontractors and
owner.
6.2.3.2 Planning basis

The following items shall be taken into consideration for the planning and design of the
facilities:
Site conditions
Location
Access
Utilities
Capacity (Staged and final)
Railway vehicles (Indoor, outdoor)
Track-bound special maintenance vehicles (Indoor)
Special maintenance vehicles (garage)
Cars (outdoor parking)
Facility management
Design requirements
Filling station for diesel units

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6.2.3.3 Process oriented aspects (Functional description)

The following processes and functions shall be taken into consideration:
Work flow
Tracks and assigned functions
Work flow for road traffic, supply and deliveries
Movement of persons
Organisation

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6.3 Signalling and train control
6.3.1 Purpose of this section

This section presents an evaluation with recommendations of suitable signalling and au-
tomatic train protection systems (ATP) for the planned new commuter railway network
in Mombasa.
6.3.2 Conditions
6.3.2.1 General conditions

The Kenya Railways Corporation (KRC) is planning a new commuter railway network
in the city of Mombasa. This network will have the following characteristics:
Standard gauge
Line length of approx. 600 Km
Single-track, extension to double track possible in a later phase
Not electrified, electrification possible in a later phase
Excepted for some mixed-gauge sections for standard and metre-gauge trains, no
connection with the existing metre-gauge network
Exploitation with commuter MUs only (Goods and long-distance traffic may be to
considerate in the future)
Expected traffic: about 0.5 - 2 trains hourly on each directions and each branch
The first lines are expected to be taken in service in 2017
6.3.2.2 Specific conditions

Due to the heavy problems experienced with cable theft, material theft and general van-
dalism, fixed installations and in particular trackside installations and wiring must be
limited to a minimum. Light signals must be avoided.
Cab-signalling is mandatory by these conditions.
6.3.3 ETCS system levels

The European Train Control System ETCS is a standardised train protection system de-
veloped to allow the compatibility and cross-border interoperation of trains and engines
in Europe. There are 3 levels suited for different traffic cases, all offering a comparable
high safety level (SIL 4).
As a European standardised system with defined interfaces, the customer will not be
tied to a particular provider, as with use of a proprietary system. Both line and train
equipment can be chosen from different providers without interoperability problems.
There are also several systems based on ETCS hardware or software on the market, but
they have not been included in these considerations: In order to avoid purchasing and
maintenance problems in the future, proprietary systems should be avoided in favour of

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systems complying with international (or European) standards. This allows the purchase
of hard- and software for vehicles and trackside from different manufacturers if neces-
sary.
6.3.3.1 ETCS Level 1
Figure 6.2: Principe schema ETCS Level 1
Trackside signals needed, no cab signaling. The driver gets his movement authority
from the trackside signals.
Trackside train detection (track circuits, axle counters) needed
Fixed blocks: The train is allowed to enter a block section only when there is no oth-
er train on it.
Intermittent transmission to train using balises and loops (The train gets information
only when it passes a balise / loop) (Radio infill using GSM-R possible)

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Figure 6.3: Example of balises, Hatfield (Pretoria) 9.12.2011
ETCS Level 1 is basically an ATP system designed to be installed on an existing signal

system with none or out-of-design ATP system. It is already used in commercial opera-
tion in several European countries.
Figure 6.4: Principe schema ETCS Level 2
Cab signalling, no trackside signals needed (only trackside panels indicating the train
stop locations). The driver gets his movement authority directly from the ETCS dis-
play (see example picture below).

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Figure 6.5: Example of cab signal display, Gautrain Unit 301.016, Pretoria 9.12.2011
Trackside train detection needed

Fixed blocks: The train is allowed to enter a block section only when there is no oth-
er train on it.
Continuous transmission to and from the train using radio transmission (over GSM-R
network)
Balises as position markers only
ETCS Level 2 is already used in commercial operation in several European countries,
mainly on high-speed lines. Several national railway network administrations plan to
use it as standard for their whole standard-gauge network (Ex: Switzerland, Denmark).

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Figure 6.6: Principle schema ETCS Level 3 / ERTMS Regional
Cab signaling, no trackside signals needed. The driver gets his movement authority
directly from the ETCS display
Trackside train detection needed only at special locations. The train position is de-
termined by the train borne odometry, resettled by balises for way correction, and
transmitted by the train to the interlocking.
Moving blocks: Trains can follow each other in braking distance depending of speed,
no fixed stopping locations
Continuous transmission to and from the train using radio transmission (over GSM-R
network)
Balises as position markers only. They may be located mainly or only in the station
areas.
Proof of train integrity needed, either using trains with fixed composition or by using
end of train reporting devices (like, for example, FRED. See also chapter 6.3.5.2)
ETCS Level 3 is actually used on the Västerdal line in Sweden (see also the next chap-
ter 6.3.3.4 “ERTMS Regional”)
6.3.3.4 ERTMS Regional

ERTMS Regional is a further development of ETCS Level 3 as a reduced-cost system
without loss of safety, using GSM-R radio transmission to control also all trackside el-
ements (points, level crossings, etc.), this allowing great savings in the trackside equip-
ment and in particular in the trackside wiring. It has been designed initially for regional
or low-density lines, but can also be used on lines with higher speed or traffic level.
ERTMS Regional is actually (05/2013) used in commercial operation only on the Väs-
terdal line in Sweden.
See also:

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http://publikationswebbutik.vv.se/upload/6424/100456_ERTMS_on_the_vasterdal_line
_utg2_201204.pdf
http://publikationswebbutik.vv.se/upload/5940/100236_ertms_regional_eng.pdf
The implementation of further lines is planned in a near future (particularly in Sweden)
6.3.4 Further development

There are studies from the industry for the possibility of removing the positioning balis-
es and replacing them with “virtual balises”, by using GPS tracking. This will allow an
exact positioning of the trains, without the odometry problems, but the technology is not
yet available (To be expected in approx. 5 to 10 years).
Figure 6.7: Principle schema ETCS Level 3 / ERTMS Regional with GPS tracking
6.3.5 Open questions about ETCS Levels 2 / 3 / ERTMS Regional
6.3.5.1 Loss of radio communication

ETCS Level 2, 3 and ERTMS Regional are radio communication based train protec-
tion systems.
Communication loss can occur if the train is in an area with no coverage between 2
stations (“Dark territory”), or if the train ATP is defective.
Solutions:
Satellite communication: This solution would be technically suitable, as it gives an
uninterrupted communication on all points of the network (excepted in tunnels), but
it would be very costly in the exploitation.
“Dark territory management”:
In case of a loss of communication, CCT has no information about the exact posi-
tion of the train, but it knows the approximated location (anywhere on a track sec-
tion between 2 stations) and the approximated time, when the train should normally

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reach the next station or radio covered area, according the last speed and location
information sent by the train before losing the communication.
As long as the “normal” time to reach the next station is not over, the track section
is considerate as occupied (Normal mode).
If the time to reach the next station or covered area (+ safety factor) is over without
communication with the train, the track section changes to the “Undefined” mode.
Trains can enter this section only on sight, and the “lost” train will also have to stop
or carry on travelling on sight (this depending of the regulations, which will have to
be defined in a later phase of the project).
In addition, it would be useful to install axle counters in the stations giving access to
dark territories, this allowing recognising a train with non-working radio equipment
when it enters a station, and then releasing the corresponding track section. This
train will then have to stop at the station and contact CCT for instructions.
Example:
Figure 6.8: Principle of “Dark territory management”
As these axle counters will be installed in stations only (guarded areas), theft and
vandalism against them can be prevented.
With this solution, the dark territories will not be a safety problem, and the installa-
tion of radio relay stations between the stations (in unsafe areas) will not be neces-
sary.
6.3.5.2 Train integrity check

ETCS Level 3 and ERTMS Regional were basically designed for lines with low level
of traffic, where only multiple units (DMUs or EMUs) are used. They require a train
integrity check by the train itself.
If there are multiple units in service, this is not a problem, as the train integrity can
be checked by means of internal wiring in the train, and additional measures are not
needed.
Instead, if there is also traffic with locomotive-hauled trains with variable composi-
tion (For instance: goods trains), the train integrity must be controlled by other
means.
Solutions:
Integrity acknowledgment by the driver (eventually with help of the local station
personal): We would NOT recommend this solution, as it needs the train or station
personal to control the entire length of the train if it is complete. This may not only

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lead to errors, but it is also possible for the driver to give the acknowledgment with-
out having actually checked the integrity.
End of train devices: System using an emitting device located on the last vehicle of
the train (Example: system FRED / Wilma, widely used on US railroads), allowing
the train ATP to check the distance between head and end of train, and giving an
alert if this distance reaches an incorrect value (Ex: coupling broken, wagon(s) lost).
This system is technically suitable and safe-proof, but it needs to always have the end
of train device correctly fitted on the last vehicle. These devices could be an interest-
ing target for thieves or vandals, so this solution is not recommended for this project.
Axle counters (Same devices like in the precedent chapter 6.3.5.1): These can safely
and automatically check the integrity of a train by counting the number of axles en-
tering / exciting a track section. It would then be necessary to install them not only at
stations giving access to dark territories, but generally on all entry / exit tracks of all
stations (or at least, on the lines where locomotive hauled trains can be expected). If
a train then leaves a track section without having the correct axle amount (Wagons
lost), CCT can block the corresponding track section (Undefined mode) and give an
alert to the driver.
6.3.5.3 Gauge sharing

On the Mombasa network, some sections will be shared with the existing metre-gauge
railway network, by means of 3-rail tracks (mixed standard / metre gauge). In particular,
the bridge Makupa – Changawme (Mombasa-Mazeras corridor), the tracks in the area
between Chaani, Makupa and Mikindani (industrial tracks) and some sections of the
line Mombasa-Voi may be equipped this way.
If they are not equipped with ATP, the trains of the metre-gauge network running on the
standard-gauge lines fitted with ATP will be detected only by the axle counters, but a
permanent positioning will not occur (CTC will only know that there is a train anywhere
on the section, but where exactly?). A much heavier issue is that these trains will not be
controlled by ATP, a braking cannot be automatically released, and these trains will be
actually permanently in full staff responsible mode.
This problem will occur independently of the chosen ATP system for the commuter
network.
Solutions:
Metre-gauge trains without ATP: This means that the metre-gauge trains running
on the commuter rail system will be totally out of control of CTC, being permanently
in staff responsible mode. The drivers will get no MA information (no trackside sig-
nals!) and will have to navigate blind on a network with heavy commuter traffic.
This solution would be VERY hazardous and is to reject.
Equipment of all metre-gauge motive power with the commuter railway’s ATP sys-
tem: This would be by far the best solution, but may be a costly one.
Equipment of selected metre-gauge motive power with the commuter railway’s
ATP system: This would be a suitable solution, but the access to the commuter net-
work will need to be strictly controlled, as no metre-gauge engine without ATP will

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be allowed to access the network (= CTC will have to be able to distinguish if a train
requesting to enter the network is equipped or not, and if not will have to be redirect
it on pocket tracks or, in case of emergency, on derailers)
Equipment of metre-gauge “pilot” engines with the commuter railway’s ATP
system: These pilots will be coupled in front of the metre-gauge engines entering the
network, and can consist of light or older locomotives equipped with ATP. Their
purpose will be to communicate with CTC, giving position, informing the driver with
MA’s and releasing emergency braking if necessary. No metre-gauge train will be al-
lowed to enter the network without pilot. Like in the case above, CTC must be able
to discriminate trains with or without pilot, and then grant or reject access to the net-
work.
6.3.5.4 Theft / Vandalism

ETCS Level 3 and ERTMS Regional are designed with a highly reduced amount of
trackside installation and wiring, in particular:
No trackside signals
No trackside wiring
No track equipment out of the stations
For these reasons, ETCS level 3 will offer only few targets to thieves and vandals, as
there will be no “interesting” equipment outside of guarded station areas.
6.3.6 PTC (Positive Train Control)

The Positive Train Control PTC is a signalling and ATP system developed for the
American railway operators, following a bill (Rail Safety Improvement Act, published
16 October 2008) requesting the equipment of all US main railway lines with ATP until
2015.
Information about this system has been requested by potential providers, but no details
have been received so far.
6.3.7 System recommendation

Here are recommendations regarding which system would be the best suitable for this
project:
ETCS Level 1 needs trackside train detection and also trackside signals, which
should be avoided for this project. For this reason, we do not recommend it.
ETCS Level 2 needs no trackside signals, but needs trackside train detection on the
whole network. It would be useable, but not optimal.
ETCS Level 3 needs neither trackside signals nor trackside train detection, excepted
on particular locations. Balises are still needed, but only for train positioning.
ERTMS Regional needs almost no trackside data wiring, excepted on particular loca-
tions.

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ETCS Level 3 with GPS tracking needs neither trackside signals nor trackside train
detection, excepted on particular locations. Also balises are no longer needed, but the
technology is not yet available.
PTC: So far no concrete information has been obtained from providers.
For these reasons, we recommend the use of the combination of:
ETCS Level 3
GPS tracking (if available when the construction work actually starts)
ERTMS Regional
Additional measures due to the specific exploitation characteristics (Axle counters,
and other to be defined)
PTC may be an alternative, but this can be only be analysed when detailed information
about this system is available.
6.4 Data transmission network
6.4.1 Purpose
The data transmission network will ensure the data and voice transmission between:
CTC
Stations
Trains
Mobile users (Handheld “mobile phones” for station personal, track worker teams,
track inspectors, security guards, etc.)
It has to be a dedicated network, as the public GSM of wired networks doesn’t ensure
the needed availability and transmission reliability for security sensible purposes.
6.4.2 Network architecture

The data transmission network will be divided in 2 transmission levels, similar to the
architecture of most public mobile phone networks:
CTC to stations / stations to stations: By a backbone network (Ex: communication by
microwave links. A wired network can’t be used here because of the cable theft prob-
lem)
Stations to trains and mobile users: by GSM-R or a similar system. The stations act
here as interfaces between backbone and GSM-R

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Figure 6.9: Network architecture

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6.4.3 Data transmission

Example (not exhaustive) of the data transmitted over the transmission network:
Table 6.1: Data Transmission Types
To:
From: CTC Stations Trains Mobile users
- - Switch move - Movement Au- - Train movement
orders thorities alerts
CTC
- PIS data - Voice - Voice
- Voice
- Gen. Feedbacks - Voice - Voice - Voice
- Switch positions
- Track occupan-
Stations cy
- SCADA
- Local requests
- Voice
- Position info - Voice - Voice - Voice
- Speed info
Trains
- Gen. Feedbacks
- Voice
- Track occupan- - Voice - Voice - Voice
Mobile
cy requests
users
- Voice
In particular:
Any user connected to the network is normally able to contact any other one for ver-
bal communication (Access restrictions may be defined).
All non-verbal communication is centralised to CTC
CTC gives all switch movement orders to the stations, and gets feedback over the po-
sition and status of the switches. The stations may have the possibility to be locally
operated, either by sending switch and train movement requests to CTC or by direct
control of the locally connected elements (but only in emergency case, under staff re-
sponsibility!)
CTC gives the movement authorities to the trains, and gets feedback over the actual
position, speed and general status of them.
Mobile users may request track locking for works on the track, either by contacting a
CTC operator by phone, or by requesting it directly by data transmission. CTC then
grants the track lock and gives the authorisation to walk the track for works.
CTC may also send train approaching alerts when a train is nearing the actual posi-
tion of the mobile user.

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6.4.4 Available systems
6.4.4.1 GSM-R
GSM-R (Global System for Mobile Communications – Rail) is a communication system
carrying voice and data for mobile users (persons and trains). It is a direct derivate of
GSM (standard for commercial mobile phone communication) with specific adaptations
for railway traffic purposes.
GSM-R is widely used on the most railways systems in Europe for voice and data
communication, including ETCS L2 and L3 applications in several countries.
6.4.4.2 Tetra
Tetra (TErrestrial Trunked RAdio) is a system initially developed for public services
transmissions (Police, fire departments, emergency services, public transports, etc.), and
is widely used worldwide. It is also used to transmit data for ATP applications (also
ETCS L3) in several countries
6.5 Electrification and power supply

As part of this study the possibility of the electrification of the new railway lines was
investigated. The following key data have been taken into account:
Development plans 2030
Headway between trains approx. 120 min
Maximum speed 120km/h
Maximum inclination 25 ‰
Trains with double composition will be used
Power consumption per train is approx. 2000kW
2 Trains within one electrical section are considered
6.5.1 Energy supply

It is assumed that the power will be supplied by the national grid with sufficient and se-
cure power available. The availability of a power grid near the required supply points
for the railway electrification and the sufficiency of the power source is not part of this
study and was not further investigated.
An independent power supply grid built and operated by KRC would be an alternative
but would require additional investments and organizational engagement.
6.5.2 Selection of traction power supply system

Commuter railways are usually electrified with AC or DC traction power supply and an
overhead contact wire system (catenary system). With DC systems usually lower volt-
ages are applied (750V, 1500V, 3000V) than for AC systems which is preferred in rural

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areas. But DC systems requires additional rectifier units (complex technic and addition-
al servicing) and are not ideal for long distances which is the case in this project.
Therefore a 25kV traction power supply system is proposed to energize the catenary
system for the different planned railway lines with single lengths up to 55 km. The de-
velopment of the electrification infrastructure shall be made step by step in accordance
with the development plans, but system and equipment should be utilized constant
throughout the complete commuter rail network.
Either a 1 x 25kV AC System or a 2 x 25kV AC autotransformer system may be con-
sidered. Railway electrification using 25 kV, 50 Hz AC has become an international
standard. There are two main standards that define the voltages of the system:
EN 50163:2004 - "Railway applications. Supply voltages of traction systems"
IEC 60850 - "Railway Applications. Supply voltages of traction systems"
A 2 x 25kV autotransformer system is considered which is the “modern” system (State
of the art) used widely e.g. for the Gautrain/ZA, in Algeria, India, France, for Germany
High speed lines, etc.). Energy losses can be reduced with such a system and the dis-
tance between substations may be extended up to approximately 50km which is a major
advantage for this case.
0. Zero Volts tapping 1. Supply transformer 2. Power supply 3. Overhead line

4. Running rail 5. Feeder line 6. Pantograph 7. Locomotiv trans-
former
8. Overhead line 9. Autotransformer 10. Running rail
Figure 6.10: Autotransformer system
In an autotransformer system, the current is mainly carried between the overhead line
and a feeder instead of the rail. The voltage between the overhead line and the feeder
line is 50 kV but the voltage between the overhead line and the running rails remains at
25 kV which is the voltage supplied to the train. Due to the behavior of the autotrans-
former the electromagnetic interference and the current in the running rails are reduced
which is a further advantage.

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6.5.3 Substations
For the railway development considered in this study an estimated 9 to 10 substations
are required. The substations shall be supplied from the 132 kV national grid (three-
phase distribution system) and shall be utilized as redundant systems (high voltage and
traction substation equipment).
At the grid substation, a transformer is connected across two of the three phases of the
high-voltage supply. The transformer (autotransformer) lowers the voltage to 25 kV
which is supplied to the switching stations located beside the tracks. In the switching
stations electrical energy can be distributed to different feeding sections or feeding sec-
tions can be energized or de-energized. In addition paralleling substations may be con-
nected in parallel to the feeding stations.
6.5.4 Overhead contact wire system

The electric power is supplied from the railway feeder station to an overhead line sys-
tem (catenary system) constructed on poles (concrete, steel) along the track. The trains
collect the traction power via a pantograph from the lowest wire of the overhead contact
system, the contact wire. The pantographs are electrically conductive and allow current
to flow through to the train back to the feeder station through the steel wheels on the
running rails. Non-electric trains (diesels) may pass along these tracks without affecting
the overhead line.
Figure 6.11: Overhead contact lines on individual supports using concret poles.
6.5.5 Remote control centre

To operate the traction power supply system for the electrification it is obvious to in-
clude a centralized remote control centre to which all stations are connected. In addition,
it is recommended that substations are manned.

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6.5.6 Operation and maintenance

For regular maintenance and troubleshooting trained maintenance and emergency ser-
vice groups are required and have to be scheduled in the operation plans. Special
maintenance vehicles and equipment is useful and recommended.
6.5.7 Risks, mitigation

Electrical (overhead line) systems imply additional accident risks if not treated respect-
fully and with the necessary care. Especially in rural areas the population may not be
aware of the risks and danger and have to be informed and advised.
Overhead contact lines and electrical substation equipment mainly consist of copper or
aluminium conductors and cables and steel structures, materials which are attracting and
inviting for theft, a worldwide well known and increasing problem. To keep resulting
accidents and damages within a limit, it might be necessary to look for special precau-
tions, e.g. fencing along the track. Video surveillance (CCTV) cannot avoid but may
help to reduce such incidents and the resulting breakdowns and damages.
6.6 Rolling stock
6.6.1 General
The new commuter rail system envisaged for the city and region of Mombasa should
ideally support both urban and regional travel, i. e. trips made within the city over short
distances and also trips between the city and regional towns and settlements. The system
will accordingly comprise corridors in the built-up environment of Mombasa, and po-
tentially other urban areas, as well as typical mainline railway alignments in the coun-
tryside.
6.6.2 Train configuration

It is assumed that the rolling stock will be based on diesel multiple units (DMUs) or
electric multiple units (EMUs). These cars have multiple prime movers (either diesel
engines or electric motors) for each car, i.e. the same car that carries passengers also has
the motive power, as opposed to conventional trains where the passengers are in coach-
es that are not self-propelling and a locomotive hauls the train.
DMUs and EMUs are used as single units, or in multiple train operation. DMU length
starts at single unit of 22 to 26 metres length, whereas EMUs are hardly shorter than 70
to 100 m, equivalent to 3 to 5 coaches / modules.
Maximum train length is in both cases around 12 to 16 coaches.

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Figure 6.12: Typical configuration schema of rolling stock for commuter rail
6.6.3 Capacity
Capacities of up to 200 passengers per coach are achievable, under crush loading condi-
tions. Total capacity of a train with 15 coaches may be up to 3,000 passengers.
The capacity of the same train in the regional network would be only around half of the
above, as crush loading would only be acceptable over short distances (e. g. for inner-
city travel).
With train intervals not shorter than 10 minutes, maximum train length and crush load-
ing, the achievable line capacity could theoretically arrive at ~18,000 passengers per
hour per direction on one track.
The initial fleet size will be derived from the expected patronage figures which will be
estimated at a later stage.
6.6.4 Vehicle dimensions and characteristics

It is proposed that the commuter rail vehicles for Mombasa will be low floor (at least
70%) and bi-directional.
The vehicle dimensions shall be aligned with the surrounding mainline railway system,
unless the commuter network is fully separate.
Passenger train length would be limited by the shortest platform in the network.
Width would also be in line with the mainline railway system. If multiple units with
short body modules (Jacobs’s bogies) are used, vehicle bodies may be slightly wider
than those of longer coaches (smaller inside throw in curves) as long as this is compati-
ble with existing platform edges.
6.6.5 Entry and floor height

If the commuter rail system is fully integrated with mainline rail, similar platform and
entry height shall be used.
Current railway infrastructure in and around Mombasa comprises low platforms. The
standard level of the platform is 450mm above rail level.
It is proposed to adopt low platforms and low entry vehicles for the new commuter rail
system. This will allow level boarding or at the most with a climb of one step.

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It is proposed that the floor height will not exceed 600 mm.
6.6.6 Acceleration and speed

A maximum speed of commuter rolling stock is typically between 120 and 160 km/h,
similar to line speeds above. Some systems with shorter distances use 100 km/h. For
Mombasa’s commuter rail system a maximum speed of 120 km/h is proposed.
Acceleration requirements will strongly depend on distances between stations; where
these are short a higher acceleration may be preferable.
6.6.7 Propulsion and traction

Both diesel and electric propulsion would be applicable toMombasa’s commuter rail
system. As existing railway lines are diesel operated, diesel propulsion may be consid-
ered at least for the initial phase(s).
The rolling stock traction capacity shall be commensurate with the line characteristics,
which assume a maximum gradient of 25 ‰..

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7 PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL IMPACT ANALYSIS
7.1 Introduction
As part of the Feasibility Study both a preliminary Environmental Impact Assessment
and a Preliminary Social Impact Assessment were to be conducted. These were pre-
pared together as a preliminary Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA),
in the form of the present Screening Report that meets the requirements of the National
Environment Management Authority (NEMA). The full report is presented in Annex 4
to the Final Report.
The Preliminary ESIA was carried out in compliance with national policies and legisla-
tion and international standards (World Bank Operational Policies and international pol-
icies and treaties ratified by Kenya).
The Screening Report includes the following parts:
General basis of the study, sections 1 to 5 (Introduction, Project description, Study
area, Methodology, Legislative and regulatory framework)
Sectoral studies, sections 6 to 8 (physical, natural and socio-economic environ-
ments: current baseline in the project area, identification of impacts and recom-
mended mitigation measures)
Analysis of social context, sections 9 to 11 (Socio-economic Survey, Resettlement
Planning, Consultation and Public Participation).
Synopsis, section 12 (summary of project impacts, evaluation of project alternatives,
Environmental and Social Management Plan).
To identify sensitive environmental or socio-economic areas and advise railway engi-
neers on alternative corridor alignments, as well as maintain flexibility to update the en-
vironmental and socio-economic assessment based on changes in corridor alignment,
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used extensively. The results are repre-
sented in the following mapbooks:
Environmental Mapbook: includes important environmental features for the entire
study area (excl. Mombasa – Mazeras – Voi Corridor), as well as a land use / land
cover analysis for the study area between Waa and Gongoni Stations.
Socio-economic Mapbook: includes important socio-economic infrastructure for the
entire study area.
7.2 General basis of the study

The project area considered in the preliminary ESIA includes all the railway corridors
considered in the Feasibility Study (see section 4 of the Feasibility Study). The railway
engineers designed the alignment of these corridors by integrating recommendations
made by the environmental and social experts during the entire course of the Feasibility
Study. In the present Screening Report, the impacts of the project were evaluated based
on the latest version of these corridor alignments.

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Three levels of study were used to explore the environmental and socio-economic im-
pacts of the project, with according degrees of detail:
1. Construction area: the area of direct and irreversible impacts of the railway
corridor, between 15 and 60 m wide depending on the topography. This is the
area in which detailed data analyses were performed.
2. Influence area: the area of potentially high but at least in part reversible impacts
of the railway. To screen for project impacts, a 1 km wide influence area was
used, centered on the railway line.
3. Study area: the larger area encompassing all railway corridors for the Mombasa
commuter railway. The considered study area corresponds to the Kenyan coast-
line between Ramisi and Lamu, extending about 80 km inland. This is the area
in which the regional baseline and issues at stake are being investigated.
At this project stage, no information is available yet on the exact location and design of
stations, maintenance facilities and temporary structures. Therefore, these were included
as part of the study area. Their impacts were analysed with the information available,
i.e. standard impacts expected as part of the construction and operation of a railway giv-
en the local conditions.
7.3 Sectoral studies
7.3.1 Physical environment

The climate in the study area is influenced by the monsoon winds, resulting in a long
rainy season between March and May, and short rains between October and December.
Average daily temperature is 26°C, and the average daily maximum and minimum tem-
peratures are 30°C and 20°C, respectively. Kenya is vulnerable to climate change, and
the effect of increasingly irregular and unpredictable weather events are felt on the coast
in the form of flooding, extensive mangrove forest die-back and coral reef bleaching.
The project is expected to have an overall positive impact on the climate, by offering a
sustainable alternative to road traffic. However, during the construction phase, construc-
tion vehicles will lead to a temporary increase in the emission of greenhouse gases.
Three different coastal types are recognised along the Kenyan coast: the fringing reef
shoreline of southern Kenya, the deltaic shoreline of Sabaki and the Tana Rivers, and
the ancient delta area of the Lamu Archipelago. Inland, behind the coral rocks, low-
lying clays and shales are found. The diverse geomorphology consists of sandy beaches,
dunes, creeks, muddy tidal flats and rocky shores bordered by cliffs. The sedimentary
origin of the parent rocks has mostly given rise to soils of low fertility with a high pro-
portion of sand. The alluvial deposits from major rivers have however led to patches of
highly productive soils. The main impacts expected from the project are the moving of
large amounts of soil and rock to build the track, the pollution of soils, increased erosion
and contribution to coastal erosion.
Water resources concerned by the project include rivers, lakes, tidal creeks and
groundwater. The railway will cross two major permanent rivers (Tana River and Athi-
Sabaki River), several seasonal rivers and numerous estuaries (Mombasa creeks,

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Mtwapa Creek, Takaungu Creek, Kilifi Creek, Mida Creek, Lamu River Delta). The
high sediment load of water bodies draining towards the Indian Ocean, caused largely
by poor land-use practices upstream, threatens the sustainability of coastal habitats. The
project’s main impacts on water resources will be pollution and increased sedimenta-
tion, as well as the physical alteration of water bodies which could lead to a modifica-
tion of drainage patterns.
In the study area, air quality in areas of urban/industrial land use and along roads with
heavy road traffic is expected to be poor and ambient noise levels are expected to be
high. This is particularly the case in Mombasa City. In areas of agricultural land use and
natural areas on the other hand, air quality is expected to be high and ambient noise lev-
els are expected to be low. During the construction phase, the project will lead to in-
creased noise levels and vibrations, as well as a degradation of air quality due to exhaust
and dust emissions. During the operation phase however, the overall impact on the
study area will be positive due to a reduction in road traffic, except in the direct vicinity
of the railway. Here, disturbances due to increased noise and vibrations and reduced air
quality are expected mainly in residential and wildlife areas.
7.3.2 Natural environment

The study area is located in the “Coastal Forests of Eastern Africa” biodiversity hotspot,
and is also part of the “Northern Zanzibar-Inhambane Coastal Forest Mosaic” ecore-
gion, one of the 200 global most outstanding and representative areas of biodiversity.
This rich biological diversity is due to the varied habitats which, starting from the oce-
anic side, include deep waters comparatively close inshore, coral reefs, seagrass mead-
ows, sandy beaches, rocky shores, mangrove swamps, estuarine mudflats, lowland
coastal forests, and coastal hill forests which give way to savannah plains inland.
The main impacts of the project on landscapes will be:
Fragmentation of continuous landscapes due to the linear nature of the railway.
Permanent modification of landscapes through the introduction of new elements.
Decreased value of exceptional and/or unique landscape features (Lamu Archipelago,
Tana River Delta, Sabaki River Mouth and Watamu-Malindi Ecosystem).
The impact of the project in terms of area cleared for the railway can be found in the
following table. It will be highest on natural landscapes that are currently continuous
and not interrupted by roads or other developments, such as coastal forests, wetlands,
mangroves and water bodies.
Table 7.1: Elements of the landscape affected between Waa Station and Gongoni Station
Severity of Severity of im-
Construction Construction impact pact (including
Land use / land cover type
area (ha) area (%) (land use missing sec-
map only) tions)
Forest 159.9 19.0 High High
Shrubs 500.6 59.3 Medium Medium
Wetlands 0.0 0.0 Low High

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Severity of Severity of im-

Construction Construction impact pact (including
Land use / land cover type
area (ha) area (%) (land use missing sec-
map only) tions)
Mangrove 8.7 1.0 Medium High
Sand / other land 33.0 3.9 Low Low
Salt pans 0.0 0.0 Low Low
Water 10.4 1.2 High High
Urban / settlement area 73.4 8.7 Medium Medium
Sisal plantations 22.2 2.6 Medium Medium
Annual cropland 16.4 1.9 Medium Medium
No data (clouds, shadows) 19.0 2.3 N/A N/A
Total 843.6 100
The vegetation of the “Northern Zanzibar-Inhambane Coastal Forest Mosaic” ecoregion

is characterised by high diversity and high levels of endemism (more than 4 500 plant
species, about 900 endemics). The majority of species are woody but there are also
climbers, shrubs, herbs, grasses and sedges. The main impacts of the project on the veg-
etation include permanent clearing and fragmentation, as well as degradation due to the
edge effect. These impacts will have more severe consequences in vegetation types that
have a high value for conservation (coastal forests, mangroves and wetlands).
Kenya’s coast is also a key area for wildlife, including many endemic and/or threatened
species in different taxonomic groups. At least 158 species of mammals are known from
the ecoregion. In the study area, 10 threatened mammal species are known to occur, as
well as five strict endemics (Ader’s duiker, golden-rumped sengi, Tana River Red colo-
bus, Tana River Crested Mangabey and the rodent Grammomys caniceps). More than
450 bird species are found on the Kenyan coast (41% of the birds recorded in Kenya),
as it provides a number of habitats for migrating and local birds. Among the numerous
endemic birds, most are forest specialists and are confined to the remaining patches of
coastal forest. The diversity and endemism of reptiles and amphibians is also high.
The threatened mammals and birds found in the study area are mostly found in forested
areas (coastal forests and gallery forests) and wetlands, and a large portion of their pop-
ulations is restricted to protected or sensitive areas, that were established amongst others
to protect them. The protected areas from the Watamu-Malindi area and the Tana River
Delta especially stand out. Major threats are habitat loss and fragmentation, as the re-
maining patches of forests are increasingly fragmented and/or destroyed, and wetlands
are destroyed or modified through new development projects. The main impacts of the
commuter railway project on wildlife are expected to be further loss and degradation of
habitat, fragmentation of populations either side of the railway corridor, interruption of
migration corridors, disturbance due to construction work and train operation, and mor-
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The freshwater ecosystems of the Kenyan coast are part of the “Tana, Athi & Coastal
Drainages” Freshwater Ecoregion. The coastal rivers of this ecoregion, with their asso-
ciated swamps, floodplains and lakes, host a relatively depauperate fish fauna which in-
cludes a number of endemic species, as well as a rich avifauna and herpetofauna. The
main impacts of the project on freshwater ecosystems are due to impacts on water bod-
ies, i.e. loss of habitat due to physical modifications, and mortality or degradation of
health condition of aquatic species and terrestrial species depending on aquatic ecosys-
tems due to negative impacts on water quality.
Marine ecosystems found in the study area include estuaries, mangrove forests, seagrass
beds, soft-bottom habitats, rocky shores and coral reefs, which are all closely inter-
linked. They harbour high levels of biodiversity, including many threatened species.
Coastal flagship species include marine turtles, which nest on Kenyan beaches, and du-
gongs, which live in shallow waters and sheltered bays and lagoons. The railway corri-
dors will cross numerous brackish and marine ecosystems, such as creeks, estuaries and
mangrove forests. The project is likely to impact both these ecosystems and sensitive
ecosystems towards which they drain. The main consequences will be loss of habitat
through physical modifications, destruction and degradation of marine ecosystems, and
mortality or degradation of health of marine species due to pollution. These impacts are
especially critical for marine ecosystems of high conservation value such as coral reefs
and mangroves, and for threatened species (e.g. marine turtles, dugongs, endangered
fish and corals).
Due to the high levels of biodiversity on the Kenyan coast, both terrestrial and marine,
the project is located in an area with an exceptionally high value for conservation. This
is reflected by the number of protected areas found in the study area. There are 11 na-
tional parks (NP) and national reserves (NR), of which five are located in the construc-
tion and/or influence area of the railway corridors: Watamu Marine NP, Malindi-
Watamu NR, Arabuko-Sokoke NR, Gede Ruins National Monument and Tsavo East
NP. There are also a large number of sensitive areas, i.e. areas that have been recog-
nised nationally or internationally as exceptional and/or unique because of the ecosys-
tems and/or species they harbour, but that are not officially protected (e.g. Ramsar sites,
Important Bird Areas).
Although protected and sensitive areas were avoided wherever possible during the de-
sign of the corridor alignment, in a few instances this was not possible due to geograph-
ical constraints. These critical areas, where the train passes close to or even through
protected and/or sensitive areas, are:
Watamu-Malindi Ecosystem
Tana River Delta Ecosystem
Tsavo East National Park
In these critical areas, the impacts of the project are expected to be very high both dur-
ing the construction and operation phases. There is also a considerable risk that this will
ensue in delays in the project approval and licensing process.

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7.3.3 Socio-economic environment

This section deals with the socio-economic environment and in large the human popula-
tion and its economic activities in the counties of interest where the railway corridors
are proposed. Within these counties, termed as the project area, with emphasis on the
proposed railway corridors, various issues are analysed based on both desk studies and
sample surveys. The issues include: population densities, settlement types, economic ac-
tivities, health, water, energy, land and land use; existing social and economic infra-
structure, and cultural heritage. Of importance is the mitigation of adverse or unintend-
ed aspects that the project has on the population and economy within the project area.
Where positive effects are projected, enhancement of these to provide a framework to
manage social change should be the aim. The sampled areas within the corridors have
been presented in three main steps: (1) description of the prevailing situation and the ex-
isting environmental conditions, (2) identification of possible social impacts, and (3) the
formulation of compensation and mitigation measures. The highlighted issues have all
been dealt with in this chapter following the three main steps.
The Mombasa Commuter Rail Network has been proposed to traverse Mombasa and its
environs via the following corridors: Mombasa – Moi International Airport – Likoni –
Ramisi; Mombasa – Mazeras – Voi; Mombasa – Mtwapa – Kilifi – Malindi; Likoni Fer-
ry – Bamburi; and Mazeras – Kaloleni – Takaunga.
The area between Mombasa Central Station and Moi International Airport is very
densely settled, with settlements comprising commercial, residential and a combination
of the two; settlements are both formal and informal. After the airport crossing the
ocean to Dongo Kundu, settlement is sparse and becomes dense at Dongo Kundu; mov-
ing towards Likoni, dense mixed settlements (formal and informal) are observed around
Likoni; moving away towards Magaoni the corridor passes through farmland with
sparse settlements. From Tiwi to Ukunda, the corridor passes through dense mixed set-
tlements; the settlements are most dense in Ukunda. From Mwabungu, through Gazi,
Msambweni to Ramisi, the corridor passes through farmland with sparse populations
save for around the commercial centres that are the proposed railway stations.
Mombasa – Mazeras – Voi, originating at the Main Station following the old railway
route depicts the most densely settled area housing both commercial and residential set-
tlements. The last section into Voi, the corridor traverses Tsavo National Park with set-
tlements restricted to the highway towns, the proposed stations and immediate environs.
Voi is a vibrant, major transit town with dense settlements in the town centre.
Mombasa – Mtwapa – Kilifi – Malindi; this entire corridor up to Mwamba is densely
settled with both commercial and residential structures. The tourism establishment is
well represented, especially within and adjacent to Mombasa city. Between Mwamba
and Takaungu farmland is travesrsed with settlements becoming dense again on ap-
proaching Kilifi town. Watamu is mainly farmland with sparse settlements, while Ma-
lindi is densely settled. The latter two towns play a vital role in tourism.
Likoni Ferry – Bamburi: the entire line passes through extremely dense settlements hav-
ing both commercial and residential structures.

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Mazeras – Kaloleni – Takaungu: this corridor passes towns densely populated but the
environs comprise farmland.
Mombasa city, surrounding areas and commercial centres within the corridor are dense
with both commercial and residential structures; while outside the county the settle-
ments are sparse, especially areas surrounded by the Tsavo game reserve land and
Shimba Hills.
The corridors have varied settlements criss-crossed by farmland as the railway line
moves away from the growing towns. The densely settled areas (towns and city) point
towards need for carrying out a full-fledged Resettlement Action Plan (RAP) as people
will need to be resettled or compensated. The more densely settled the area, the more
likelihood for compensation and relocation.
The population and settlement location is indicative of where the commuter train will
have more impact, both negative and positive.
7.4 Analysis of social context

First the basic findings of the socio-economic sample survey carried out within the rail-
way corridor in the counties of interest are presented. This is based on questionnaires
that were designed for households, businesses and key informant interviews. Public par-
ticipation fora were also held. The results of the survey are combined to cover all the
four counties of interest. In total 577 household and business respondents were inter-
viewed. Generally the people are pleased with the proposed commuter rail project but
stress the issue of land (their agricultural land) as most of it is ancestral land and dis-
placing them would raise the question of where they would go to continue their daily
businesses. Project Affected Persons (PAPs) in the coastal region are suspicious and al-
beit their chiefs seeing the positive aspects of the project, more thorough consultations
with the people is called for. The issue of land which is very emotive put them on guard.
A more thorough investigation will be required to bring on board all the PAPs. The so-
cio-economic sample survey points towards the need for a full-fledged Resettlement
Action Plan (RAP) to ensure that all PAPs and their assets are identified within the
railway corridor and compensation accorded as will be spelled out in the RAP.
Subsequently the basics of resettlement planning are presented. These are necessarily
based on the findings of the sample survey carried out from 11th – 23rd April, 2013. Leg-
islation on legal conditions for expropriation and resettlement are presented. The World
Bank’s OP 4.12, which spells out the internationally accepted basic elements of the
Bank’s resettlement policy, is summarised. What needs to be done as the next step for
carrying out a full-fledged RAP is also presented.
Public Participation and Consultation is an ongoing process and this should continue in
the following phases of the project. The continued community consultations would pro-
vide a firm basis from which to commence the development of the Resettlement Action
Planning. The consultations carried out during this study are also briefly presented with
emphasis on the need for continuation of public consultation.

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7.5 Synopsis
7.5.1 Overall impact per corridor section
7.5.1.1 Analysis
Screening the different features of the physical, natural and socio-economic environ-
ment in the study area allowed determining variable sensitivities to project impacts ac-
cording to the corridor section considered. This is due to the high diversity of ecosys-
tems as well as the unequal distribution of population along the Kenyan coast.
To obtain an overview of these findings, a preliminary evaluation of the overall impact
of each future railway corridor section on key features of the physical, natural and so-
cio-economic environment was conducted and is recapitulated in the following table.
Table 7.2: Preliminary evaluation of overall project impacts per corridor section
Overall project im-
pact
Feasibility Study
Corridor section
Length (km)
economic envi-
Priority
Physical and
natural envi-
ronment
ronment
Socio-
From To
Low to
1.1 Makupa Moi International Airport 7.1 2 High
medium
Low to
1.2 Moi International Airport Likoni 20.8 5 High
medium
1.3 Likoni Ramisi 58.1 8 High High
2.1 Mombasa Main Station Mtwapa 16.4 3 High Very high
2.2 Mtwapa Kilifi 38.0 7 High Very high
2.3 Kilifi Malindi 59.3 10 Very high High
Low to
3.1 Mombasa Main Station Mazeras 19.3 1 High
medium
Low to Low to
3.2 Mazeras Samburu 41.0 6
medium medium
Low to
3.3 Samburu Voi 92.4 9 High
medium
4 Likoni Ferry Bamburi 14.8 4 High Very high
Low to
5 Mazeras Takaungu 51.7 11 High
medium
6 Malindi Hindi 204.9 12 Very high High

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7.5.1.2 Results for the physical and natural environment:

The key features of the physical and natural environment considered in the evaluation
were: water resources, landscapes, vegetation, wildlife, freshwater ecosystems, marine
ecosystems, and protected and sensitive areas. The corridor sections could be separated
in three categories:
Corridor sections that are expected to have a very high overall impact: mostly due to
the presence and extent of many protected and sensitive ecosystems.
Corridor sections that are expected to have a high overall impact: due to numerous
variable reasons according to each corridor section (e.g. presence of sensitive ecosys-
tems, vegetation types, wildlife, freshwater or marine ecosystems).
Corridor sections that are expected to have a low to medium overall impact: due
mostly to their passing through areas that are already heavily impacted by urban de-
velopments, and do not harbour sensitive ecosystems.
7.5.1.3 Results for the socio-economic environment:

The key features of the socio-economic environment considered in the evaluation were:
population and settlement, land and land use, infrastructure, cultural heritage and job
oppoprtunities. The corridor sections could be separated in three categories:
Corridor sections that are expected to have a very high overall impact: mostly due to
population and settlements, land and land use, and infrastructure. This is especially
an issue in Mombasa City, where there is no more land that is unoccupied.
Corridor sections that are expected to have a high overall impact: mainly due to pop-
ulation and settlements, land and land use, and in certain cases infrastructure.
Corridor sections that are expected to have a low to medium overall impact: mostly
in areas that are sparsely inhabited. The land and land use variable still plays an im-
portant role however.
7.5.2 Conclusion
The challenges of urbanisation and climate change call for sustainable transport solu-
tions. Therefore, the development of the Mombasa commuter railway project is ex-
pected to have an overall positive impact on the natural and socio-economic environ-
ment, as railway transport is a sustainable alternative to increasing motorised vehicle
traffic.
However, based on the screening conducted in this Preliminary ESIA, the impacts of the
project on many different aspects of the physical, natural and socio-economic environ-
ment will be considerable, due to:
The extensive scale of the area traversed by the railway corridors.
The large variety of land uses it crosses, including:
Densely inhabited urban areas that will require the resettlement of a large num-
ber of people.
Areas of exceptional biodiversity (including protected areas), that will require
extensive stakeholder involvement to identify appropriate mitigation measures.

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The Consultant is therefore the opinion that a full ESIA and RAP will need to be con-
ducted in the next project stage.
Furthermore, in the corridor sections for which a very high overall project impact has
been identified, the following specific recommendations apply:
Kilifi-Malindi corridor: given the sensitivity of the Watamu-Malindi Ecosystem and
the number of protected and sensitive areas located in this ecosystem, KRC should
consider developing the corridor as a separate project with its own ESIA.
Malindi-Hindi corridor: given the extreme sensitivity and relatively pristine state of
the Tana River Delta Ecosystem, as well as the sparse population of the area, the de-
velopment of a commuter railway on this corridor is not recommended from an envi-
ronmental perspective. Should KRC nonetheless choose to include this corridor in
the Detailed Design stage, the corridor should be developed as a separate project with
its own ESIA to avoid delays in project approval and licensing for the other corridors
that have a lesser impact.
Likoni-Ramisi corridor: very densely populated on approaching Likoni and several
houses will be grazed, while in Ukunda the aerodrome and airport will be interfered
with, as they lie within the corridor. KRC should be prepared to have high expenses
in compensation after verification from RAP exercise, should the present proposed
route be maintained.
Mtwapa – Kilifi corridor: the extensive stretch of sisal plantations is a great contribu-
tor to the economy and employment of the region. While the Mnarani Club and other
resorts within the corridor, which are all private, are not only contributors to the tour-
ist industry (economy and employment), but Mnarani Club and Beach area extends
right up to the creek, where the private beach is surrounded by a coral reef. More dis-
turbances to the creek and coral ought to be minimised. Should the proposed corridor
be approved, then KRC should start early to negotiate land acquisition for the pro-
ject, bearing in mind that the cost will be colossal.
Likoni Ferry – Bamburi corridor: this has extremely dense settlements both commer-
cial and residential structures. As there is no land that is unoccupied here, alternative
land for resettlement will have to be sought; it is not known how many settlements
will willingly move to Junda where there appears to be land. It would be advisable to
do a separate and thorough RAP for this corridor.
7.5.3 Environmental and Social Management Plan

Based on the project impacts and mitigation measures identified in this Preliminary
ESIA, an Environmental and Social Management Plan (ESMP) was prepared. The
ESMP covers:
The impact
The project components causing this impact
The proposed mitigation measures
Responsibility for implementation
Costs
Timeframe of implementation

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The ESMP was prepared for the planning, construction and operation phases. The plan-
ning phase ESMP will be crucial in the preparation of the Detailed Design, as the need
for and/or extent of many mitigation measures recommended for the construction and
operation phases can be reduced or made redundant by applying the recommended
planning phase measures. Therefore, it is essential that the preliminary ESIA and espe-
cially the ESMP be made available to the detailed design engineers and the consultant
preparing the ESIA and the RAP.
The mitigation measures recommended for the planning phase are presented in the table
below.
Table 7.3: Impacts and mitigation measures identified for the planning phase
Impacts Impacts
Soils: - ESIA: detailed geological and soil survey
erosion - Plan appropriate drainage structures
- Plan infrastructures to protect from rock fall
- Adapt size of bridges and culverts to large floods
- Avoid passing too close to shoreline
- Avoid passing through mangrove forests
Water resources: modifi- - ESIA: detailed evaluation of water resources with field evaluations of water body
cation of physical envi- and catchment area status to define the sensitivity of the water bodies concerned
ronment and degradation - Following survey, where possible, avoid sensitive water resources
of water quality - Plan environmental and water protection management system
- Plan construction sites and large-scale facilities away from water bodies
- Design bridges instead of embankments in mangrove forests, wetlands and flood-
plains
- Plan crossing of permanent waterways where banks are stable and waterway is the
narrowest
- Plan construction activities across seasonal rivers during dry season
Noise: pollution - ESIA: noise mapping in urban areas
- ESIA: noise pollution modelling
- Plan noise protection measures in sensitive areas based on findings from noise
mapping and modelling
Landscapes: permanent - Railway corridor should follow existing road corridors
modification - Avoid passing through unique and/or exceptional landscape features
- Avoid passing through continuous natural landscapes such as coastal forests,
mangroves and wetlands
- Plan temporary structures in areas that are already impacted by human presence
Vegetation: destruction, - ESIA: refine land cover analysis through ground-truthing to further distinguish dif-
fragmentation, degrada- ferent vegetation types and their sensitivity
tion - ESIA: evaluate land cover between Gongoni and Malindi as well as Waa and Ra-
misi
- Avoid passing through highly sensitive vegetation types (coastal forests, man-
groves, wetlands)
- Railway corridor should follow existing road corridors whenever possible, and espe-
cially through sensitive vegetation types
- Plan temporary structures in areas where the vegetation is already impacted by
human presence and in low sensitivity vegetation categories

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Impacts Impacts
- Integrate communities as stakeholders depending on forest resources
Mangroves and wet- - ESIA: refine land cover analysis through ground-truthing to evaluate exact man-
lands: grove and wetland location
destruction - ESIA: perform land cover analysis between Gongoni and Lamu as well as Waa and
Ramisi to determine exact location of mangroves and wetlands
- Avoid mangrove areas and wetlands
- Design bridges instead of embankments in mangrove and wetland areas
Wildlife: - ESIA: further identify species present in project area, especially threatened and
disturbance, fragmenta- endemic species
tion, - ESIA: identify wildlife migration corridors
mortality - Avoid cutting through wildlife migration corridors, if impossible design under- or
overpasses so they are appropriate for species concerned
- Maintain corridors of forest open to allow movement of species. Where fragmenta-
tion of key habitats cannot be avoided, design under- or overpasses in the form of
green corridors and appropriate for species concerned
- Design bridges instead of embankments
- Avoid or minimise any impacts on protected and sensitive areas
Freshwater ecosystems: - ESIA: detailed survey of freshwater ecosystems crossed by corridors
degradation - Following survey, where possible, avoid sensitive freshwater ecosystems
- All measures for water resources, vegetation and soils
Marine ecosystems: deg- - ESIA: detailed survey of marine ecosystems crossed by corridor (creeks, man-
radation groves, etc.)
- All measures for water resources, vegetation and soils
- Avoid passing close to turtle nesting beaches
Protected and/or sensi- - Avoid protected or sensitive areas
tive areas: - ESIA: if impossible to avoid, involve all stakeholders likely to be affected to agree
destruction, on appropriate compensation measures, and obtain written consent letters giving
degradation authority for implementation of project
- In particularly critical areas (Watamu-Malindi Ecosystem, Tana River Delta Ecosys-
tem), the development of the corridors concerned as separate projects with their
own ESIA should be considered
- ESIA: evaluate movement of animals between Arabuko-Sokoke Forest and Mida
Creek
- Watamu-Malindi corridor: follow existing road passing through plantation area of
Arabuko-Sokoke along the northern side of said road, design appropriate over- or
underpasses for species concerned
- Tana River Delta ecosystem: railway should not be built on an embankment in
mangrove and wetlands areas, but follow the recommended bridge design
- Tsavo East National Park: reevaluate measures of SGR ESIA with increased traffic
and construction of new stations once more information becomes available on traf-
fic and exact location of stations, if necessary propose additional measures
Land acquisition and - PAPs (those losing land, crops, houses and other assets) be relocated or stay if
involuntary more than 60 m from the railway tracks. Must be compensated first before the land
resettlement / displace- is taken into use.
ment of persons - Carry out full-fledged RAP to ensure capturing all directly affected PAPs and ascer-
tain owners of land that may be expropriated; engage local communities and their

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Impacts Impacts
leaders, Ministry of Lands and National Land Commission on all issues to do with
land.
- Continue public consultations and engage PAPs in all aspects of project, especially
when RAP starts.
- In accordance with OP 4.12 and Kenyan legislation on land acquisition, draw up
agreements with affected and compensate them before any land take occurs.
Loss of access to and - Carry out RAP and identify access to and livelihoods from land whether titled or not.
livelihood from land; Identify all categories of land use.
land use - Compensate as will be spelt out in RAP.
- Alternative livelihood strategy
Loss of property and - Carry out full-fledged RAP to mark structures within corridor that will be destroyed.
assets Also includes social infrastructure (schools, health centres, mosques, churches,
etc.)
- Where commercial and residential structures affected, owners to be compensated
as required by Kenyan legislation and WB’s OP 4.12. For social infrastructure, re-
place these at new sites for continued use by community.
Traffic diversions and - Provide safe alternative, temporary access for those portions of roads and other
risk to existing buildings infrastructure (bridges, etc.)
Interference with Sisal, - RAP: Where corridors cannot be re-aligned, ascertain owners of plantations that
tea, fruits (mangoes, co- might be interfered with and compensate owners for loss of crops and trees.
conuts, palms, bananas, - Engage PAPs and local leaders work out modalities for compensation and compen-
etc.) Plantations and sate before destruction of plantations.
Tree Research Plots
Disturbances to bore - RAP: Together with local communities and technical staff at county level, ascertain
holes, water piping and sites of water pipes, boreholes and storage and secure and protect these.
storage systems - Carry out a full-fledged RAP
Destruction of social in- - RAP: Ascertain social infrastructure to be affected in railway corridor e.g. Waa Dis-
frastructure pensary in Waa Kwale District and Taqwa Muslim School in Likoni.
- SRG: check Samburu-Voi corridor: Ensure McKinnon Road Mosque and Ndonivyo
Primary school not impacted.
- If impossible to avoid destruction, ensure assets replaced at new site for continued
use by community.
Cultural Heritage - RAP: Carry out an indepth comprehensive study and demarcation of entire corri-
dors required.
- Use communities’ knowledge for the heritage site identification and re-route railway
to avoid destruction of such sites.
- Where burial sites and sacred sites are affected, relocate these and perform neces-
sary rituals and project pays for relocation.
Population and social - Do not fragment family units, special attention to be given to vulnerable groups as
network identified during RAP.
- Relocation to areas similar to those relocated from.

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8 PRELIMINARY COST ESTIMATES
8.1 General
The preliminary cost estimates present the total investment and operation costs for the
sections and the total length of the lines.
They correspond to the routes and alignments described in Section 4 and reflect the state
of definition of the project.
It is assumed that the project will be realised according to the Time Line presented in
Figure 4.33. Two scenarios are considered for the implementation of the project. The
first alternative assumes a total implementation of the project by the end of 2030, and
the second a reduced implementation by 2027, leaving out sections 5 Mazeras – Kalole-
ni – Takaunga and 6 Malindi – Hindi.
The prices are given in KES (Kenyan Shillings) and USD (US Dollar), reflecting the
share of local and imported supplies and services.
They correspond to 2013 prices and do not take into account inflation and the cost of in-
terests.
The investment cost items are grouped in the following categories:
A. Land acquisition
B. Civil works for the sections excl. stations (Earthworks, bridges, tunnels, cul-
verts)
C. Rail facilities (Trackwork, signalling, TC & communication, electrification)
D. Stations
E. Maintenance facilities (Workshop, equipment, vehicles) and yard
F. Ancillary works (Streets, crossings, utilities, landscaping, costs of Environmen-
tal and Social Management Plan (ESMP) and Resettlement Action Plan (RAP)).
G. Rolling stock (incl. spare parts)
H. Engineering services (Project management, design, construction supervision and
commissioning)
The main operation costs items are station and maintenance staff, infrastructure and
train operation.
8.2 Unit costs and total cost calculation principles

The unit costs for local supplies are average values obtained in Kenya during the field
study. Those for imported supplies are average international prices obtained from simi-
lar projects.
Measurable items are priced on the basis of volumes, areas, lengths or number of units,
whereas those which cannot yet be defined (e.g. utilities, environmental and social miti-

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gation measures) are given a flat price. Engineering services, comprising project man-
agement, project design, construction supervision and commissioning, are estimated on
a percentage basis of the total investment cost.
A breakdown of the investment costs for all sections is included in Annex 7.
The operation costs are based on station and light maintenance staff costs, infrastructure
operations costs and train operations costs.
The yearly station staff costs are based on 5 personnel categories and staff numbers
commensurate to the 5 station categories. The yearly light maintenance staff costs are
based on 5 personnel categories and assumed staff numbers for workshop & depot,
workshop extension and infrastructure service point. The infrastructure operation costs
cover the depreciation, maintenance and replacement costs for the infrastructure over 30
years run time, taking into account the life spans of the various items.
The train operation costs are made up of staff costs, fuel costs and depreciation, mainte-
nance and replacement costs for the rolling stock with a life span of 30 year, over 30
years run time.
8.3 Cost estimation of capital costs

It is assumed that certain additional capital costs will be necessary after the completion
of the system in 2030 (or 2027 for the second alternative) to cope with the increased
traffic. To increase the capacity of the system certain stations will need to be provided
with a second track to allow the trains to cross, and certain line sections might require a
second track. These additional capital costs are applied linearly from 2030 (or 2027) to
2045.
Additional rolling stock will also be required, and their costs will also be applied linear-
ly.
The total investment costs for each section and for the total length of the lines is pre-
sented in Table 8.1. The yearly global and sectional investment costs are shown in Table
8.2. The cost chart in Figure 8.1 shows the yearly and accrued investment costs for the
initial system implementation and later upgrading.
8.4 Cost estimation of operation costs

The operations costs due to additional rolling stock and additional yearly mileage will
also increase from 2030 (or 2027) and these costs will be applied linearly up to 2045.
The yearly and accrued operation costs for each section are presented in chart form in
Figure 8.2.
An overview of the yearly operation costs for each section and for the total length of the
lines is presented in Annex 8.

Final Report
All Costs in: [mn KES] Share of Total Costs

KRC/PLM/40/2011
No Corridor Length Sub Total Costs per Cost Group Total Cost local foreign

Section from to A B C D E F G H Costs per km [mn KES] [mn USD]
Table 8.1:
1.1 Mombasa - Airport - Likoni - Ramisi 6.5 km 358 691 440 153 43 404 1'564 465 4'118 634 2'082 23.96
Makupa - Airport 2.5 km 9.0 km
1.2 Mombasa - Airport - Likoni - Ramisi 20.8 km 737 19'665 1'119 188 26 981 1'420 3'335 27'470 1'321 24'112 39.51
Airport - Likoni 9.0 km 29.8 km

1.3 Mombasa - Airport - Likoni - Ramisi 58.1 km 477 1'391 3'091 468 292 336 1'420 987 8'462 146 4'809 42.98
Likoni - Ramisi 29.8 km 87.9 km
2.1 Mombasa -Mtwapa - Kilifi - Malindi 16.4 km 937 12'067 932 495 17 1'161 2'899 2'479 20'986 1'280 13'059 93.26
Mombasa - Mtwapa 0.0 km 16.4 km
2.2 Mombasa -Mtwapa - Kilifi - Malindi 38.0 km 317 5'607 1'944 306 43 343 1'275 1'336 11'171 294 5'744 63.85
Mtwapa - Kilifi 16.4 km 54.4 km
2.3 Mombasa -Mtwapa - Kilifi - Malindi 59.3 km 456 4'443 3'062 369 309 409 1'564 1'428 12'041 203 6'268 67.91
Kilifi - Malindi 54.4 km 113.7 km
Cost estimation of capital costs
3.1 Mombasa - Mazeras - Voi 19.3 km 342 1'005 1'043 529 662 553 3'392 1'013 8'539 442 3'708 56.83
Mombasa - Mazeras 0.0 km 19.3 km
3.2 Mombasa - Mazeras - Voi 41.0 km 2 8 245 216 903 69 986 341 2'770 68 869 22.36
Mazeras - Samburu 19.3 km 60.3 km
3.3 Mombasa - Mazeras - Voi 92.4 km 3 14 386 369 9 23 1'479 320 2'602 28 696 22.43
Samburu - Voi 60.3 km 152.7 km
4 Likoni Ferry - Bamburi 14.8 km 917 7'763 794 342 17 955 1'913 1'655 14'355 970 7'659 78.77
Likoni Ferry - Bamburi 0.0 km 14.8 km
5 Mazeras - Kaloleni - Takaungu 51.7 km 633 6'550 2'705 279 51 442 986 1'564 13'210 256 10'172 35.74
Mazeras - Takaungu 0.0 km 51.7 km
6 Malindi - Lamu 204.9 km 1'171 11'316 10'214 279 456 880 2'465 3'626 30'407 148 21'043 110.16
Malindi - Lamu 0.0 km 204.9 km
Total Costs 623.2 km 6'348 70'522 25'976 3'994 2'826 6'556 21'361 18'548 156'131 251 100'221 657.76
Cost Groups A Land Acquisition E Maintenance facilities
B Civil Works F Ancillary works
C Rail Facilities G Rolling stock
D Stations H Engineering Services
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No Corridor Start / Duration [month] Costs Investment costs per year [mn KES]
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Planning Construction Opera. [mn KES] 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Total costs

Section
3.1 Mombasa - Mazeras - Voi 1'013 63 253 253 254 190 1'013
Table 8.2:
Mombasa - Mazeras 10/13 18 04/15 30 10/17 7'526 2'256 3'014 2'256 7'526
1.1 Mombasa - Airport - Likoni - Ramisi 465 72 143 143 107 465
Makupa - Airport 07/14 15 10/15 24 10/17 3'653 455 1'829 1'369 3'653
2.1 Mombasa -Mtwapa - Kilifi - Malindi 2'479 366 367 368 367 367 367 277 2'479
Mombasa - Mtwapa 01/14 27 04/16 54 10/20 18'507 3'085 4'109 4'109 4'109 3'096 18'507
4 Likoni Ferry - Bamburi 1'655 226 301 301 301 301 226 1'655
Likoni Ferry - Bamburi 04/16 18 10/17 48 10/21 12'700 791 3'173 3'173 3'181 2'382 12'700
1.2 Mombasa - Airport - Likoni - Ramisi 3'335 119 477 476 476 476 477 476 357 3'335
Airport - Likoni 10/15 24 10/17 60 10/22 24'136 1'203 4'824 4'824 4'838 4'824 3'622 24'136
3.2 Mombasa - Mazeras - Voi 341 28 114 114 85 341

Mazeras - Samburu 10/19 12 10/20 24 10/22 2'429 303 1'214 912 2'429
2.2 Mombasa -Mtwapa - Kilifi - Malindi 1'336 179 356 356 356 90 1'336
Mtwapa - Kilifi 07/20 15 10/21 30 04/24 9'835 980 3'932 3'932 991 9'835
1.3 Mombasa - Airport - Likoni - Ramisi 987 132 263 263 264 66 987
Likoni - Ramisi 07/21 15 10/22 30 04/25 7'475 745 2'988 2'997 745 7'475
3.3 Mombasa - Mazeras - Voi 320 27 107 107 80 320

Yearly global and sectional investment costs
Samburu - Voi 10/21 12 10/22 24 10/24 2'282 284 1'139 858 2'282
2.3 Mombasa -Mtwapa - Kilifi - Malindi 1'428 191 381 380 380 95 1'428
Kilifi - Malindi 07/23 15 10/24 30 04/27 10'613 1'059 4'247 4'247 1'059 10'613
5 Mazeras - Kaloleni - Takaungu 1'564 87 348 347 347 347 87 1'564

Mazeras - Takaungu 10/23 18 04/25 36 04/28 11'646 2'912 3'879 3'879 978 11'646
6 Malindi - Lamu 3'626 100 403 403 404 403 403 403 404 403 302 3'626
Malindi - Lamu 10/21 30 04/24 78 10/30 26'782 3'091 4'118 4'118 4'118 4'129 4'118 3'091 26'782
Total Costs 156'131 63 691 3'592 9'395 11'169 13'250 13'278 12'765 10'831 11'065 9'465 10'563 13'217 13'374 9'900 5'598 4'520 3'393 156'131
Engineering Service costs (management, design, supervision, comissioning)
Construction costs (incl. Land acquisition and rolling stock)
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all costs in [mn KES]
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18'000 250'000
Figure 8.1:
16'000
200'000
14'000
12'000 Upgrading Ro lling Stock

Upgrading Infrastructure
150'000
System Implementation
10'000
Total Investments
8'000
100'000
6'000
Yearly and accrued investment cost for each section

4'000
50'000
2'000
0 0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045
139
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20'000 300'000
Figure 8.2:
18'000
250'000
16'000 Malindi - Hindi
Mazeras - Takaungu
Likoni Ferry - Bamburi
14'000 Kilifi - Malindi
200'000
Mtwapa - Kilifi
Mombasa Main Station - Mtwapa
12'000
Likoni - Ramisi
MOI International Airport - Likoni
Makupa - MOI International Airport
10'000 150'000
Samburu - Voi
Mazeras - Samburu
8'000 Mombasa Main Station - Mazeras

Total Operation Costs
100'000
6'000
Yearly and accrued operation costs for each section

4'000
50'000
2'000
0 0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045
140
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8.5 Cost estimation reduced project

The reduced project is based on the Road Map for development of the total project as
described in section 4.5, but excludes those sections which have the most unfavourable
relation between traffic volume, investment and operation costs. The reduced project is
to be completed in 2027.
The reduced scenario includes only the sections with priority 1 to 10 (refer to section
4.5):
Table 8.3: Road Map for development, sections of the reduced project
Cor. Sec. from mileage to mileage length
1 Mombasa - Airport - Likoni - RamisiCorridor
1.1 Makupa km 2.5 Kibos km 9.0 6.5 km
1.2 Airport km 9.0 Muhoroni km 29.8 20.8 km
1.3 Likoni km 29.8 Ramisi km 87.9 58.1 km
2 Mombasa -Mtwapa - Kilifi - Malindi Corridor

2.1 Mombasa km 0.0 Mtwapa km 16.4 16.4 km
2.2 Mtwapa km 16.4 Kilifi km 54.4 38.0 km
2.3 Kilifi km 54.4 Malindi km 113.7 54.4 km
3 Mombasa - Mazeras – Voi Corridor

3.1 Mombasa km 0.0 Mazeras km 19.3 19.3 km
3.2 Mazeras km 19.3 Samburu km 60.3 41.0 km
3.3 Samburu km 60.3 Voi km 152.7 92.4 km
4 Likoni Ferry – Bamburi Corridor

4 Likoni Ferry km 0.0 Bamburi km 14.8 14.8 km
Table 8.4: Cost estimation of capital costs for the reduced project
Total Costs
Cost Groups (mn KES)
A Land Acquisition 4'545
B Civil Works 52'656
C Rail Facilities 13'056
D Stations 3'436
E Maintenance facilities 2'317
F Ancillary works 5'233
G Rolling stock 17'910
H Engineering Services 13‘359
Total 112'514

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Table 8.5: Yearly global investment costs for the reduced project
Engineering Construction
Service Costs Costs
Year (mn KES) (mn KES)
2013 63 0
2014 691 0
2015 882 2'711
2016 1'468 7'927
2017 1'441 9'728
2018 1'144 12'106
2019 1'172 12'106
2020 1'348 11'418
2021 1'330 9'401
2022 1'168 9'494
2023 917 8'059
2024 815 5'905
2025 446 4'993
2026 380 4'247
2027 95 1'059
Total 13'359 99'155
The total costs for implementation of the reduced project are 112'514 mn KES against
156’131 mn KES for the total project.
The cost chart in Figure 8.3 shows the yearly and accrued investment costs for the initial
system implementation and later upgrading of the reduced project.
The yearly and accrued operation costs for each section for the reduced project are pre-
sented in chart form in Figure 8.4: Yearly and accrued operation costs for each
section for the reduced projectFigure 8.4.

Final Report
KRC/PLM/40/2011

14'000 200'000
Figure 8.3:
180'000
12'000
160'000
10'000
140'000
Upgrading Ro lling Stock
Upgrading Infrastructure
120'000
System Implementation
8'000
Total Investments
100'000
6'000
80'000
60'000
4'000
40'000
Yearly and accrued investment cost for the reduced project

2'000
20'000
0 0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045
143
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16'000 250'000
Figure 8.4:
14'000
Likoni Ferry - Bamburi 200'000
12'000 Kilifi - Malindi
Mtwapa - Kilifi
Mombasa Main Station - Mtwapa

10'000 Likoni - Ramisi

150'000
MOI International Airport - Likoni
Makupa - MOI International Airport
8'000 Samburu - Voi
Mazeras - Samburu
Mombasa Main Station - Mazeras

100'000
6'000 Total Operation Costs
4'000
50'000
2'000
0 0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045
Yearly and accrued operation costs for each section for the reduced project
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9 ECONOMIC APPRAISAL
9.1 Introduction
The key question in economic evaluation is if a project or a policy intervention is
worthwhile from an overall social point of view. The main purpose of project economic
analysis is to help design and select projects that contribute to the welfare of a country.
It is most useful when used early in the project cycle, and has very limited use when
used solely as a single figure hoop through which projects must jump once prepared.
According to the Guideline of the World Bank, the following questions will be an-
swered as a result of this report.
a) What is the objective of the project?
b) What is the project’s social, environmental and economic impact?
c) Is the project worthwhile?
d) Is this a risky project?
Most of these questions must be answered during a wide discussion process of the in-
volved stakeholders. This analysis aims to provide a basis for such a discussion and sets
values and data which help to argument in one or another direction.
The general approach is the comparison between a Do-Nothing Scenario, which is de-
fined as the current transport distribution in which no railway system is existent and
most of the private and public transport will be done as described in chapter 2. The
overall transport volume will increase dramatically due to increasing population expec-
tations and will cause significant problems in the catchment area and its surroundings. It
can be expected that neither the existing public transport systems nor the existing and
planned traffic infrastructure will have sufficient capability to satisfy the upcoming pas-
senger transport demand. Changes between the modes are quite moderate and it can be
expected that especially the Matatu system will reach the limits of its capacity.
The case which is compared to the Do-Nothing Scenario is the railway project as de-
scribed in this study. Costs are clearly defined as described in chapter 8. The expected
economic benefits are listed in this chapter and are related to the costs caused by the
project. Most of the benefits are generated by shifted passenger trips from other
transport modes to the railway system as described in chapter 2. These benefits usually
base on standard unit values connected to the quantity of shifted trips.
Western European, Asian and Northern American countries have proven values for the
economic evaluation of transport projects. In Kenya, and in most of the comparable Af-
rican countries, these data do not exist and no scientific research has been made in re-
cent times. Accordingly, no specific local values for economic evaluations are on hand.
In this case values of other countries were adopted or assumptions were made to gener-
ate a reliable analysis.

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9.2 Methodology
The methodology of this appraisal follows common structures of economic evaluations
like the World Bank or the European Union uses for transport projects. The following
figure shows the basic structure of the methodology. This appraisal follows this struc-
ture where applicable and differs where no data or values were available.
Source: A framework for the economic evaluation of transport projects, World Bank 2005
Figure 9.1: Transport Economic Appraisal Structure
In accordance with generally accepted economic principles, this study applies the meth-
odology of a Socio-Economic Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) for the Economic Analysis.
The CBA looks at the broad effects of a project to society as a whole, hence encompass-
ing more than the financial picture.
The CBA compares
Do-nothing scenario (transport development without implementing a commuter rail
system) and

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With-project scenario with parameters as described below

Contrary to the financial analysis, the economic analysis is based on welfare impacts on
national level. This means that transfer payment as well as taxes, e.g. VAT must be tak-
en out of the assessment.
In addition to the monetized benefits, a lot of further advantages will be gained by the
project and need to be weighed up against the costs and disadvantages of the project.
In the economic appraisal are e.g. not or only partly considered:
Creation of employment opportunities, which are not direct connected to the railway
system (only included in relation to the station area development further possible job
creation should be discussed within the stakeholders)
Growth and improvement of infrastructure around the railway line
Opportunity for women to get access to a safe and reliable mode of transport
Improve quality of public transport for all potential users
Increase the accessibility to hospitals, schools and public institutions
Structuring the urban development of urban as well as rural areas
9.3 Indicators for the economic appraisal

The CBA takes into account the following items which determine the economic value:
The costs of the project, being the required investments and reinvestments for the
project, and the incremental operational expenditures for the railway system reduced
by saved investments and operational costs in the existing transport system (mostly
roads).
The direct impact, being:
the economic value of travel time reduction.
passenger revenues
The external effects of the improvement of the railway system, being:
reduction of accidents;
reduction of noise;
creation of new jobs and local economic development
reduction of emission (local air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions);
The effects are considered over the period 2015 to 2045 and discounted to a present
value for the year 2013.
The residual value of the investments is also taken account into account, in order to re-
flect that the investments still have an economic value after 2045.
The discount rate should reflect the opportunity cost of capital in Kenya.
Table 9.1: Parameters for the Economic Appraisal
Element Value/ Assumption
Method Cost-benefit analysis in market prices
Planning horizon 30 years after start of construction

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Element Value/ Assumption

Starting year 2015
Discount rate 12%
Year of result (NPV value) 2045
Price level 2013
Time value passengers Chapter 9.5.1
Valuation of externalities Chapter 9.5.4
Cost of accidents Chapter 9.5.6
Saved vehicle km Chapter 2
Traffic volumes Chapter 2
9.4 Input data
9.4.1 Cost estimation (direct and externalities)
9.4.2 Investment costs

This chapter includes the cost estimations based on 2013 cost structures divided into
groups and adopted to the Kenyan prices as described in chapter 8.
For the economic analysis the construction costs for the project implementation period
(30 years) without depreciation and engineering services (as shown in chapter 8) were
converted into accounting (shadow) prices which reflects the ”social value” by multi-
plying the costs with a factor of 0.75.
This factor which reflects
a reduction of actual and local market impacts on the prices
the exclusion of direct and indirect taxes
All costs were converted into mn KES and summarised in the EA table in Annex 7 and
can be seen in the figure below.
Converted Investment Costs in mn KES
12'000
10'000
8'000
6'000
4'000
2'000
0
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
Figure 9.2: Investment cost (economic values)

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9.4.3 Operational expenditures

Operational cost includes all items as mentioned above like maintenance, train services
and staff costs. Depreciation costs for the infrastructure are excluded.
Data were taken from chapter 8 (Cost estimation) and adapted to the requirements of the
economic appraisal.
9.5 Benefit estimation

Implementing a new railway system usually brings several benefits for the general pub-
lic but only some of them can be converted and expressed in money. Other benefits like
social advantages can only be evaluated in a descriptive way.
Monetary benefits included in the Cost-Benefit Analysis are:
Time savings of passengers travelling with the railway system instead of using other
modes
Road traffic avoided (Vehicle operating and maintenance costs)
Prevented Accidents (Road Traffic Accidents)
Job Creation due to station area development
Externalities (mainly reduced environmental pollution caused by road traffic)
Revenues by train operation
Residual value
9.5.1 Travel time benefits

The amount of time savings, for each category of traffic, has therefore been calculated
at network level.
The value of time has been assessed the following way:
Average value of times for different trip purposes have been adopted from European
unit data with a base year 2007 (Source: JASPERS).
Converting European to Kenyan values a factor was established related to the average
yearly wage in both regions.
Average yearly salary:
Europe: 19’219 USD
Kenya: 1’600 USD
Converting factor: 0.083
(Source: Opendata, Eurostat)

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This leads to the following 2015 data for Kenya:

Table 9.2: Values for travel times
short distance - rail KES per hour USD per hour
business 146.16 1.61
commuting 56.25 0.62
others 47.26 0.52
Assuming a distribution of trip purposes this results in an average value per trip:
Business: 30%
Commuting: 50%
Others: 20%
Average value per trip hour: 81.42 KES (0.92 USD)
By multiplying the time savings in passenger hours with those unit values, a monetary
value of time savings can be obtained.
Time savings were calculated by multiplying assumed reduced trip times due to shifting
from other modes to the railway system.
BodaBoda: 3min/trip
Motorbike: 3 min/trip
Private car: 5 min/trip
Matatu: 5 min/trip
Bus: 10 min/trip
These results in overall time savings:
Table 9.3: Time savings
short distance - rail 2018 2021 2030 2045
Saved trips 9’164 16’872 234’289 594’383
Saved hours 4’753 8’661 116’546 280’326
Travel time benefits KES 387’012 705’167 9’489’179 22’824’160
Travel time benefits mn USD 0.004 0.01 0.11 0.26
9.5.2 External impacts

Avoided road traffic is the major impact which brings positive aspects to the project.
The following benefits can be summarized under this topic.
9.5.2.1 Vehicle operating costs (VOC)

For each vehicle km of different modes, a vehicle operating cost has been considered.
The values have been taken from the International Roughness Index (IRI), for the situa-
tion “plain and very good condition”, that is the situation in which vehicle operating

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costs are the lowest (using therefore a conservative approach). These unit values, pre-
sented in the following table, are constant over the study period.
Table 9.4: Vehicle operating costs for road traffic
Car Matatu Bus
Cost for roughness
0.329 0.345 0.728
IRI: 6; USD)
RUC Component (con-
0.313 0.318 0.635
sumables) in USD
Total KES per km 54.76 56.55 116.27
Total USD per km 0.642 0.663 1.363
Source: International Roughness Index
For motorbikes and BodaBoda 30% of the VOC for cars were assumed. For walking
and bicycle traffic no VOC were calculated.
Multiplying the above listed cost units with the saved vehicle kilometres results in the
following values:
Table 9.5: Saved VOC Costs
2018 2021 2030 2045
Saved trips (all modes) 9’164 16’872 234’289 594’383
Saved vehicle km (relevant modes) 102’969 189’526 2’629’701 6’662’976
VOC benefits mn KES 5.77 10.62 146.85 370.24
VOC benefits mn USD 0.067 0.12 1.72 4.33
9.5.3 Job Creation

In the consequence of land area development around the station areas it can be expected
that the local economy will be pushed and several business will allocate. First plans
were made for big stations in Kenya like Mombasa where shopping malls and business
centres have been foreseen.
This will result in an increased offer of new jobs with a long term influence on the local
economy.
For three categories of stations a yearly amount of value for new created jobs were as-
sumed.
Category I: 160 mn KES
Category II: 40 mn KES
Category III: 4 mn KES
After finalizing the whole network a total number of 3 cat I, 18 cat II and 16 cat III sta-
tions will be implemented.

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9.5.4 Externalities
Externalities include noise, air pollution, and climate change, which can be saved by
shifting passengers to the railway system.
For the With-Project Case, the total rail passenger km were calculated. For the same
traffic, the corresponding amount of road passenger km has been calculated.
The Consultant has then used the results of the Infras-IWW study dated 2004 in order to
assess the cost of externalities (air pollution, climate change and noise) per passenger
km and ton km on road and rail.
Table 9.6: Infras-IWW unit costs – Euro for base year 2000
Average costs in
2000 - EA 17 Average cost (EUR / 1000 pkm)
Road Rail
Car Bus
Noise 5.2 1.3 3.9
Air pollution 12.7 20.7 6.9
Climate change 17.6 8.3 6.2
Total EA 17 35.5 30.3 17
Source: Infras-IWW study dated 2004
The above table shows the unit costs defined by Infras-IWW for the EA 17 (EU 15 plus
Switzerland and Norway) for the base year 2000.
These unit costs have been transferred to Kenyan values on the basis of the GDP/capita
expressed in USD. This transfer has been made by calculating a transfer coefficient
which adopts European GDP to Kenyan GDP in 2000 and increases the coefficient to
the year 2012 in the same relation like the GDP growth..
Table 9.7: Transfer coefficients based on GDP/capita
Population transfer coeffi-
GDP (mn USD) USD/capita
(1’000) cient
EA 17 (EU 15 +
Switzerland + Nor-
way) 2000 8’645’360 389’634 22’188
Kenya 2000 12’000 31’254 384 0.018
Kenya 2012 37’229 43’178 862 0.038
Source: AMECO, Opendata
The total value of externalities for rail passenger km as well as for road passenger km
has been calculated and their difference is the savings of externalities linked with the
avoidance of road traffic.

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Table 9.8: Yearly savings from externalities

2018 2021 2030 2045
Saved pax km 598’758 1’092’590 14’769’353 35’808’768
Benefits mn KES 30.20 55.19 749.01 1’828.81
Benefits mn USD 0.35 0.65 8.76 21.38
9.5.5 Safety / Accidents

Prevention of death and injuries accidents caused by road is worldwide the highest
group of potential costs reduction. About 60% of cost reduction per vehicle km is a
common value.
For Kenya no specific studies or data basis is available. Due to this European values
were taken, adopted to local conditions and multiplied with the quantities of this project.
Non-government organisations like the International Road Federation (IRF) published
studies where rough figures for Kenya were taken from. It can be remarked that the ac-
cident rate in Kenya is quite high and the effects of the accidents are relatively serious
due to missing safety regulations and bad road and vehicle conditions.
Table 9.9: Road Accidents in Kenya per year (rough figure)
Number of accidents per
Type of Accident
100’000 people per year
fatalities 10
severe injuries 30
light injuries 100
Source: Consultants estimation based on several studies
For calculating the total numbers of saved accident costs by the railway project a per-
centage of 7% of the inhabitants in the catchment areas was assumed to be influenced
by the project. According to the population forecast in chapter 2 the total number of
prevented accidents was calculated.
Values for accident costs were taken from European Standards and converted into Ken-
yan values by comparing the national GDP for Kenya and the EU-27.
Table 9.10: Values for saved accidents
Value for saved ac- Value for saved ac- Value for saved ac-
Accident values cidents in Europe cidents in Kenya cidents in Kenya
(EUR) (USD) (KES)
fatalities 1’000’000 239’400 20’349’000
severe injuries 58’119 9’276 788’442
light injuries 4’219 673 57’235

Source: Guide to cost-benefit analysis of investment projects, EA Commission

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The following table shows the number of yearly saved accidents by groups for selected
years and the total savings in USD.
Table 9.11: Accident reduction savings
2018 2021 2030 2045
Saved fatalities 57 114 258 428

Saved severe injuries 178 342 805 1'283
Saved light injuries 594 1'137 2'519 4'276
Total savings in mn KES 1'384 2'647 5'986 9'956
Total savings in mn USD 16.28 31.14 70.42 117.13
9.5.6 Revenues
Revenues are calculated by using the yearly passenger kilometre (paxkm) of the railway
users. Fares are set at 3 KES per paxkm.
A reduction has been made for passengers who are usually free of charge like children
and pensioners (5%) and for people who usually pay a reduced price (30% discount)
like students (5%).
Fares are considered without taxes.
9.5.7 Residual value

The residual value presents the value of an asset at the end of a project period. Even if
replacements have been made for some system elements, it can still be calculated with a
second hand market or as scrap.
It has been calculated, section by section, as the remaining value of investment in 2045,
based on a 52 years life time for each section and on a linear amortisation method.
Since the residual value had to be calculated section by section, with dates of comple-
tion that might vary, this method has been found as the only reasonable method, even if
it is likely to bring less benefits than the method using the benefits of the last year of the
study horizon.
The residual value in 2045 is calculated as 54’368mn KES.
9.5.8 Total values of benefits

Adding up the above listed benefit values it shows that a steady increase of benefit val-
ues will be generated by the project. This is mostly related to constant increase of popu-
lation and through these shifted trips from road to the railway system.

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Developement of project benefits in mn KES

30'000
25'000
20'000
15'000
10'000
5'000
0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
Figure 9.3: Project benefit development
Additional benefits which are listed in chapter 9.2 will not be monetised and must be
evaluated in a separate stakeholder discussion.
9.6 Calculation of the economic internal rate of return (EIRR)

The economic analysis has been performed by assembling the investments costs and the
value of the effects, year by year, over the study period.
This results in a yearly curve of the cash flow and into overall values of the economic
analysis.
The results can be summarised as per the following tables/figures.
Cash flow in mn KES
120'000
100'000
80'000
60'000
40'000
20'000
0
-20'000
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
Figure 9.4: Cash Flow Curve of economic values

Final Report
Economic analysis 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
KRC/PLM/40/2011

Investments costs -2'033 -5'946 -7'296 -9'080 -9'080 -8'971 -7'051 -7'648 -6'933 -6'741 -9'433 -10'699 -6'783 -5'230 -3'670 -4'597
Operation costs 0 0 0 -964 -964 -964 -1'786 -2'318 -3'283 -3'757 -4'896 -4'896 -5'552 -8'127 -8'127 -8'127
Road traffic avoided 0 0 0 6 6 6 11 14 32 44 89 93 115 137 142 147
Time savings 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 6 6 8 9 9 9
Accidents savings 0 0 0 1'384 1'441 1'497 2'647 3'077 3'679 4'034 4'548 4'733 5'228 5'591 5'789 5'986
Externalities 0 0 0 30 31 32 55 75 164 226 460 478 592 701 725 749
Job Creation 0 0 0 480 480 480 612 932 944 996 1'052 1'052 1'108 1'128 1'128 1'128
Revenues 0 0 0 140 157 174 655 1'008 1'509 2'148 2'472 3'058 3'503 3'844 4'152 4'472
Residual value 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
total costs -2'033 -5'946 -7'296 -10'044 -10'044 -9'934 -8'836 -9'966 -10'216 -10'498 -14'329 -15'595 -12'335 -13'357 -11'798 -12'725
total effects 0 0 0 2'040 2'114 2'188 3'981 5'107 6'330 7'451 8'627 9'419 10'554 11'411 11'945 12'490
Table 9.12: Economic analysis – details
Cash flow -2'033 -5'946 -7'296 -8'003 -7'929 -7'746 -4'855 -4'859 -3'886 -3'047 -5'702 -6'176 -1'782 -1'946 147 -234
Economic analysis 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045
Investments costs -3'226 -2'464 -2'295 -3'081 -1'961 -1'921 -1'658 -4'522 -725 -3'272 -4'337 -3'426 -3'028 -6'409 -3'622
Operation costs -10'152 -10'439 -10'737 -11'046 -11'367 -11'701 -12'047 -12'408 -12'782 -13'171 -13'575 -13'994 -14'431 -14'884 -15'355
Road traffic avoided 228 237 245 254 263 273 263 293 304 314 325 336 348 359 370
Time savings 15 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 20 20 21 22 22 23
Accidents savings 6'248 6'479 6'710 6'941 7'172 7'435 7'699 7'962 8'226 8'489 8'783 9'076 9'369 9'663 9'956
Externalities 1'160 1'202 1'244 1'286 1'328 1'376 1'424 1'471 1'519 1'566 1'619 1'672 1'724 1'777 1'829
Job Creation 1'304 1'304 1'304 1'304 1'304 1'304 1'304 1'304 1'304 1'304 1'304 1'304 1'304 1'304 1'304
Revenues 5'698 6'138 6'597 7'070 7'560 8'106 8'672 9'254 9'856 10'478 11'158 11'861 12'583 13'328 14'092
Residual value 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 104'609
total costs -13'378 -12'902 -13'032 -14'126 -13'328 -13'622 -13'706 -16'929 -13'507 -16'443 -17'912 -17'420 -17'459 -21'293 -18'977
total effects 14'653 15'374 16'115 16'871 17'644 18'511 19'379 20'302 21'228 22'171 23'209 24'270 25'350 26'453 132'183
Cash flow 1'274 2'472 3'084 2'744 4'316 4'889 5'673 3'373 7'721 5'728 5'297 6'849 7'891 5'159 113'205
156
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Table 9.13: Overview of economic analysis result

Key figure Value
NPV in 2014 (5.50%) -10'521
EIRR in 2014 4.31%
B/C 1.53
Present value of investment -80'037
Present value of effects 122'229
Following table shows the share of effects caused by the project. Biggest effects result
from saved accident costs and the residual value which gives the asset value at the end
of the project.
Table 9.14: Share of effects in total present value
Present values Share of Benefits
Savings of road VOC 5'254 1.0%
Time savings 333 0.1%
Accidents savings 169'837 33.5%
Externalities 26'515 5.2%
Job Creation 31'080 6.1%
Revenues 169'742 33.5%
Residual value 104'609 20.6%
total 507'369 100.0%
9.7 Risk and sensitivity analysis
9.7.1 Risk Analysis

The risk analysis is presented in chapter 11. It shows different influences on the project
costs as well as on the benefits and possible measures to avoid negative results.
9.7.2 Sensitivity Analysis

As shown in the risk analysis, there is a certain possibility that influence factors will
change during further phases of the project. This will have influence on the investment
costs as well as on benefits. For analysing changes in the economic results, variations
were analysed with increased costs and benefits to show the sensitivity of the project
value.
In following sensitivity calculation, increased costs of the infrastructure of 20% have
been assumed, which gives the following results:

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Table 9.15: Economic analysis results with increased investment costs

Key Figure Value
NPV in 2014 (5.50%) -22'888
EIRR in 2014 3.30%
B/C 1.27
Not surprisingly, the net present value calculation deceased to a more negative result
and the EIRR has decreased its value for about 1%.
In the next sensitivity calculation, all benefits (vehicle operating costs, time savings, ac-
cident savings, job creation and saved externalities) are increased by 20% each.
Table 9.16: Economic analysis results with increased benefit values
Key Figure Value
NPV in 2014 (5.50) 14'919
EIRR in 2014 7.10%
B/C 1.83
The net present value of the turned to positive and the EIRR as well as the B/C in-
creased significantly.
9.7.3 Scenario with reduced sections

Analysing a reduced scenario in which only the ten most important sections of the net-
work are built shows a significant change in the economic results. These changes can be
explained by a high reduction of investment and operation costs and only slightly reduc-
tions of benefits due to lower population density and traffic volumes in these sections.
The base case has already a positive NPV and the variant with increased benefits shows
a considerable growth of the EIRR.
Table 9.17: Economic analysis results with increased benefit values
+ 20% Invest
Value base case + 20% Benefits
Key figure Costs
NPV in 2014 (5.50%) 6'671 -3'766 31'548
EIRR in 2014 6.32% 5.10% 9.13%
B/C 1.81 1.50 2.17
Present value of investment -66'219 -79'462 -66'219
Present value of effects 119'531 119'531 143'437

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The following table shows the share of effects caused by the project. Most significant
effects result from the revenue incomes and from the residual value which is the asset
value at the end of the project in 2045.
Table 9.18: Share of effects of the Reduced Projekt in total present value
Present values
Share of Benefits
(mn KES)
Savings of road VOC 5'200 1.1%
Time savings 330 0.1%
Accidents savings 165'982 35.0%
Externalities 26'241 5.5%
Job Creation 27'016 5.7%
Revenues 168'021 35.5%
Residual value 81'094 17.1%
total 473'884 100.0%

Final Report
Economic analysis 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
KRC/PLM/40/2011

Investments costs -2'033 -5'946 -7'296 -9'080 -9'080 -8'971 -7'051 -7'648 -6'933 -4'429 -4'169 -4'709 -794 -1'408 -590 -2'285
Operation costs 0 0 0 -964 -964 -964 -1'786 -2'318 -3'283 -3'757 -4'896 -4'896 -5'552 -7'553 -7'553 -7'553
Road traffic avoided 0 0 0 6 6 6 11 14 32 44 89 93 115 135 140 145
Time savings 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 6 6 8 9 9 9
Accidents savings 0 0 0 1'384 1'441 1'497 2'647 3'077 3'679 4'034 4'548 4'733 5'228 5'423 5'618 5'813
Externalities 0 0 0 30 31 32 55 75 164 226 460 478 592 693 717 741
Job Creation 0 0 0 480 480 480 612 932 944 996 1'052 1'052 1'052 1'052 1'052 1'052
Revenues 0 0 0 140 156 173 655 1'008 1'508 2'146 2'471 3'058 3'504 3'798 4'104 4'421
Residual value 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
total costs -2'033 -5'946 -7'296 -10'044 -10'044 -9'934 -8'836 -9'966 -10'216 -8'185 -9'065 -9'606 -6'346 -8'960 -8'143 -9'838
total effects 0 0 0 2'040 2'113 2'187 3'981 5'107 6'328 7'449 8'626 9'419 10'499 11'110 11'639 12'181
Cash flow -2'033 -5'946 -7'296 -8'003 -7'930 -7'747 -4'856 -4'859 -3'888 -736 -439 -186 4'153 2'149 3'496 2'343
Economic analysis 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045
Investments costs -3'226 -2'464 -2'295 -3'081 -1'961 -1'921 -1'658 -4'522 -725 -3'272 -4'337 -3'426 -3'028 -6'409 -3'256
Operation costs -7'842 -8'117 -8'403 -8'700 -9'009 -9'330 -9'665 -10'012 -10'374 -10'750 -11'142 -11'549 -11'972 -12'413 -12'871
Road traffic avoided 225 234 242 251 260 270 260 290 301 311 322 333 345 355 366
Time savings 15 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 20 20 21 22 22 23
Accidents savings 6'041 6'269 6'498 6'726 6'955 7'216 7'477 7'739 8'000 8'261 8'553 8'844 9'136 9'427 9'719
Externalities 1'145 1'187 1'228 1'270 1'312 1'360 1'407 1'454 1'502 1'549 1'602 1'655 1'707 1'760 1'812
Job Creation 1'052 1'052 1'052 1'052 1'052 1'052 1'052 1'052 1'052 1'052 1'052 1'052 1'052 1'052 1'052
Revenues 5'622 6'060 6'513 6'983 7'469 8'010 8'571 9'150 9'747 10'364 11'041 11'739 12'457 13'197 13'958
Residual value 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 81'094
total costs -11'068 -10'580 -10'698 -11'780 -10'970 -11'252 -11'323 -14'534 -11'100 -14'022 -15'479 -14'975 -15'001 -18'822 -16'127
total effects 14'100 14'817 15'549 16'298 17'064 17'925 18'785 19'702 20'621 21'556 22'589 23'643 24'718 25'813 108'024
Table 9.19: Economic analysis of the reduced projekt – details (all values in mn KES)
Cash flow 3'032 4'236 4'851 4'518 6'095 6'673 7'462 5'168 9'521 7'534 7'110 8'668 9'718 6'992 91'897
160
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10 FINANCIAL ASESSMENT
10.1 Introduction
10.1.1 Context: financial appraisal vs. economic appraisal

The Financial viability assessment of the rail project differs from the Economic assess-
ment with regards to its scope and context:
The Economic Appraisal covers Macro-economic environment, costs and externali-
ties/indirect gains, to assess the economic surplus generated by its implementation from
a National taxpayers and Authorities perspective;
The Financial Appraisal considers the Micro-economic context of the project itself, fo-
cusing on identification of the financial gap or surplus from construction and operations
and the financing resources required to execute it.
The illustration below shows the interaction and differences between these two apprais-
al tools, and the respective focus of Public and Private sectors (if any):
Socio-Economic Value Financial or Corporate Value
Socio-economic, environmen-
tal and other external effects Inv, Ops Perspective
Public
Private and Financial
perspective
costs and revenues
Figure 10.1: Socio-Economic vs. Financial appraisal (source RebelGroup)
Therefore, when performing the financial appraisal, only direct monetary costs and rev-
enues (i.e. the operating, investment and financial cash flows) are taken into account to
test the efficiency of use of capital invested and identify an operating gap or surplus,
expressed in the form of a financial Internal Rate of Return (fIRR). Additionally, the fi-
nancial appraisal can be used to test whether the project can sustain its own external fi-
nancing and if not, the equivalent Funding Gap existing and that needs to be covered by
the beneficiaries of the project (being the recipient of the overall economic benefits).

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10.1.2 The Distinction between Funding and Financing or the project

The terms of Funding and Financing are often interchangeably used as the same term,
and although they are closely interconnected fundamentally they relate to 2 different
perspectives. Within this financial analysis, we make the following distinction which we
believe is essential:
Funding relates to a cash inflow to the project from the tickets sales, any govern-
mental contribution (such as operating or investment grants/subsidies), sale or leas-
ing of KRC or state properties and use the proceeds to pay for the commuter rail pro-
ject or any surplus from commercial activities that may be directed to the funding of
the operations of the system. Therefore, Funding is the long-term cash inflow that
pays for the realisation of the project, and is in nature partially or fully disconnected
from its actual physical implementation (i.e. the construction/investment phase). The
funding stream is primarily generated by the users of the system, through the price of
the ticket; should this funding source is not sufficient to pay for the project, comple-
mentary sources are needed (operating subsidy form the GoK or the Dis-
tricts/Municipalities that benefits from the rail system for example). Funding is sized
proportionally to the benefits by users willing to pay for.
Financing is the sourcing of capital, either long or short term, to pay for the imple-
mentation of a specific project and bridging the time lag between an upfront need for
resources (paying for construction) and the materialisation of any funding inflow in
the future. Financing is therefore a temporary provision of resource, and would be
expected to be paid back in a given time from the cash flow surplus resulting from
the project funding. Such repayment also includes returns to the financiers in the
form of interest (next to the principal repaying the funds borrowed), rent or dividends
on the basis of future cash flows (funding) generated over the lifetime of a project.
This also requires to assess the project on a life-cycle basis rather than looking just at
the construction period. For the Mombasa Commuter Rail project financing is rele-
vant to “pre-funding” of the system in expectations of future benefits from an en-
hanced urban mode of transport.
In the illustration below, we present the distinction and interaction between Funding and
Financing. The figure takes into account the project over its whole life-cycle, expressed
in Net Present Value (NPV) terms:

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Who covers the cash flow

Operating and Main- gap? Funding Gap
tenance Costs
Taxes
Financing Costs
Revenue from sale of
Financing Gap tickets
Who finances the Repayment of Fi-

construction? nancing sources used
for investment (such
as debt)
Construction Period Operating Period

Figure 10.2: Financing Gap vs. Funding Gap (source RebelGroup)
One of the main objective in performing the financial appraisal of the Mombasa Com-
muter Rail project is therefore to 1- identify the financing gap and 2-establish the fund-
ing gap/surplus and 3- test the efficiency of the investment by calculating the IRR. Us-
ing the financial model specifically design for the project (see chapter 3), the cash flows
are forecasted on the overall project lifetime, assuming a minimum of 30 years mini-
mum for each section.
10.2 Methodology and approach – cash flow engineering concepts
10.2.1 Defining the project cash flows

As indicated above the financial appraisal relies on direct monetary cash flows, being
cash inflows (revenues and subsidies) or cash outflows (costs and expenses). These are:
a. Operational Cash Flow: the operational cash flow of the project is the net ag-
gregated value of all revenues (operating subsidies, revenue from ticket sales,
revenue from commercial concessions if any) minus all operating costs incurred
to run the commuter rail system (salaries, energy, consumption and maintenance
costs, taxes, etc.). Depreciation is not included as it is a non-cash elements, that
has an impact on tax calculation, and is by nature not relevant in the operational
cash flow (except to estimate tax payments).
b. Investment Cash Flow: the investment cash flow is composed of the invest-
ment costs (capital expenditures) incurred during the implementation of the rail
system, which is split per section as the project is built in stages. A positive in-
vestment cash flow is any form of investment grant or subsidy injected in the
project (either from the GoK, KRC or any donor) which is earmarked for in-
vestment and non-redeemable.

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c. Financing Cash Flow: the financing cash flow of the project is the aggregation
of any financing sources (loans, equity, etc.) used to cover the investment costs,
as well as all associated financing costs such interests and fees; the financing
cash flow also include the repayment of these source, either in the form or a debt
amortisation of redemption of any capital to investors (dividends or bonds in the
case of private capital sources).
The aggregation of the operational and investment cash flow is the Free Cash Flow (also
referred to as Project Cash Flow). This Free Cash Flow provide important information
to establish the financial viability of the project, namely:
Identifies the financing gap generated from the investment period;
Indicates whether the project is operationally viable (i.e. if the revenue is sufficient to
cover the cost);
Serves as the base to calculate the Project IRR (or fIRR).
The third layer, the financing cash flow, illustrates the costs and amount of external fi-
nancing injected into and repaid by the project and whether the operational surplus is
sufficient to sustain this external financing.
10.2.2 Project returns and parameters

At this stage of the feasibility, the relevant indicator is the Project IRR and its corre-
sponding NPV. This rate of return indicates whether the investment performed returns a
higher financial value from the operations over time.
To be considered financially viable, the project IRR should be above a defined thresh-
old. This threshold is defined by the minimum discount rate used to compare and rank
the various project undertaken by KRC. The cash flow base to calculate the IRR is as
follows:
(+) Revenue from ticket sales

(-) Staff costs (stations, maintenance, rolling stock personnel)
(-) Fixed/variable maintenance costs
(-) Direct operating costs (energy, utilities, fuel consumables)
(-) Taxes and duties
(+) Operating Subsidies
1/ +/- Operating CF
(-) Capital Investments in assets

(+)Investment subsidies and grants
2/ (-) investments CF
Project IRR = Free Cash Flow (project cash flow)

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10.2.3 Identifying the Financing Required and the Funding gap

The estimation of the amount required in financing is established over the construction
period of the corridors. It is composed of:
Investment costs in infrastructures, superstructures and rolling stock
Any financing costs incurred on external financing sources.
Available investment subsidies for investment are allocated to capital expenditures, and
therefore comes in deduction of the required external financing necessary to complete
the construction.
On this basis, the financing required is equal to:
a. The cumulated capital expenditure (infra and rolling stock), after use of any in-
vestment subsidies;
b. the financing costs during the financing disbursement period and capitalised
with underlying assets.
The Funding Gap is assessed on the overall project lifespan, and expressed in Net Pre-
sent Value to reflect the life-cycle perspective. It is the aggregation (in NVP terms) of:
a. Net operational cash flows +
b. Net Investment cash flows
In other terms, the funding gap is the net present value of all free cash flow over the
project’s life-cycle (i.e. 30 years after completion of the last segment). The discount rate
used for discounting cash flow is the reference rate as applied in the Economic Apprais-
al.
10.3 Financial model structure and input assumptions
10.3.1 Format and methodology

The financial model is a custom-build spreadsheet model (Microsoft Excel). Its purpose
is to forecasts the projects cash flows (operational, investment, funding inflows and fi-
nancing cash flows) over the project analysis period. The model is designed following
the FAST Standard8 and applies best-practices modelling principles such as:
Segregation of input assumptions, in a specific input module.
Left-to-right formula consistency over the calculation range.
Compilation of main output and user interface in a custom made module (the dash-
board).
Specific marking of input, imports and exports.
No use of hardcoded value in calculation formulas.
8
www.fast-standard.org. FAST is an industry recognised, license-free modelling convention designed to standardise the construction of spreadsheet models in a
transparent and comprehensive manner, using a set of structural and visual conventions enhancing robustness and reliability.

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10.3.2 Model Structure
10.3.2.1 Model logical structure and modules

The financial model is structured as follows:
Dashboard
Timing and NPV & IRR

Non Time- Traffic and Output
Based As- indexation Financing
Revenue
sumptions Module
Capital Ex- Operating

Time-Based penditures Expenditures Financial
Assumptions Statements
Calculation engine
Figure 10.3: Mechanics of the spreadsheet financial model
Combining the capital expenditures, operating expenditures, ridership volumes and a

proposed ticket pricing, the first step is to assess the viability of the system at operating
level, taking into account the hard costs, revenues and amortisation of the investment
realised. This already indicates whether the project can sustain its own financing or
whether additional funding is required, primarily from KRC’s own resources or a Gov-
ernmental subsidy. The Financing module is set to estimate a consolidated cost of fi-
nancing over the project lifetime using an annual interest rate of 3% for the cost of the
finance disbursed and repaid. Detailed quantitative assumptions are presented in the fol-
lowing sections.
10.3.2.2 Accounting rules and implicit assumptions

The financial model’s forecasting of cash flows and production of Financial statements
(Profit&Loss, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statements) is based on the following
structural specifications:
The cash flows are aggregated at Commuter System level, in the form a KRC-owned
operating entity consolidating the overall system; assets are aggregated on a single,
system-wide balance sheet;
The operational life-cycle for each sections is a minimum of 30 years from comple-
tion of construction; this implies that the ultimate date of analysis (project end date)
is 30 years after the implementation of the last section, namely 2060 (following the
implementation of corridor 6). This results in the fact that some corridors are as-
sessed on a longer period, from their respective implementation until the 30th operat-
ing year of the last section. Please refer to the Chapter 4.5 and Figure 4.33 for details
of implementation planning.

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The Mombasa Commuter Rail system operating entity is subject to a 30% corporate
tax, and allowed to carry losses forward for a maximum of 5 years. Taxes are as-
sumed to be paid the same year they are due.9
The fixed assets are presented on the Balance Sheet at Book Value, assuming a Line-
ar depreciation starting with the respective operating periods, using depreciation
rates specific to each asset class on basis of the economic lifetimes indicated in
Chapter 10.3.4.1 hereafter.
Net Present Value(s) are based on an annual Discount Rate of 5%.
Figures are presented in Millions KES(otherwise specified). Currency exchange rate
from USD to KES is 1 USD = 85 KES.
The model timeline is an annual resolution, and values stated at End of Period (i.e.
each columns is a period of 12 calendar months).
Inflation rates are as follows, with reference date as of 1/1/2014 (except ticket price
which is escalated from 2018 onwards):
CPI (Consumer Price Index) 2.5%, annual
Salary costs inflation CPI + 0.5%, annual
Ticket Price escalation 3% every 24 months
Working Capital: Creditors payment term of 45 days and Debtor term of 0 days.
10.3.3 Revenue input assumptions
10.3.3.1 Volumes / traffic forecasts

The traffic forecasts is expressed in daily trips between 2 stations pairs (please refer to
the list of stations in Chapter 4.4 and methodology of traffic forecasting). The financial
model restates the daily ridership forecasts into an annual volume of passengers, on a
328 operating days basis.
The volume forecasts is produced up to 2050. For operating period analysis beyond this
period, volumes in operating periods post-2050 are capped at the same level following
that date. For details of the ridership volume projections for the period 2017-2050,
please refer to Chapter 3.4.
10.3.3.2 Revenue assumptions

For the purpose of the feasibility analysis, the methodology selected is an estimate of
the annual revenue at consolidated system level (incremental with the continuous im-
plementation of the sections until the network is fully built) expressed in revenue per
km/trip. The revenue benchmark selected is KES 3 / km, on basis of a benchmark pric-
ing observed in Nairobi for similar services (i.e. commuter rail between the JK Airport
and the Nairobi main station).
9
Ignoring the usual delay in time between calculation of Taxes on basis of previous year results and actual payment, often
occurring within the following financial year. This convention is chosen for an more accurate calculation of ratios and
cash flows.

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The revenue per sections is calculated as follows:

3 KES/km x distance of Section x daily trip per section x 300 days
It is then summed for all sections per corridors and all corridors together. Considering
that tickets are bought at the time of the travel or prepaid (in the case of cards), the
Debtor payment term is 0 days (all revenue booked in the P&L is collected at the same
period, without any working capital effects).
Details of ridership forecasts are presented in Chapter 3.4.
10.3.4 Cost Estimates input assumptions
10.3.4.1 Capital expenditures assumptions

The cost estimates for capital expenditures are defined per section, as detailed in chapter
8. The various items are grouped by nature, under the following categories. The detail
per category is necessary for the ability to classify investment in different Fixed Asset
types, each with a specific economic life time; this economic life time is the base to es-
timate accounting depreciations in the profit and loss :
Land – 80 years
Civil Works – 80 years
Stations buildings – 40 years
Maintenance facilities – 40 years
Ancillary works – 60 years
Rolling Stock – 30 years
Engineering and Construction supervision – 5 years (being Project Development
costs, it is assumed they can be capitalised separately and amortised over a shorter
period)
Rail Equipment and structures:
Substructures – 80 years
Superstructures – 40 years
Signalling – 20 years
Communication equipment, passenger information – 20 years
Electrification and Power Supply – 60 years
To be reported in the forecasted Balance Sheet, these items are combined in 6 different
asset classes, each with a common economic life time for depreciation and renewal.
Meanwhile, due to the prospective time span of analysis or due to their nature, some as-
sets are not renewed and continue to be operated after full amortisation. Only the rolling
stock and equipment are replaced. Other assets are considered to be continuously main-
tained (as part of the O&M costs, see Annex 8) rather being physically replaced (which
occurs after the analysis period in any case).
The capital expenditures assumptions are presented in Chapter 8.3.
For model simulations, an annual inflation rate of 2.5% (different from 3% for costs and
revenues in the operating phase) is applied to construction costs during the construction

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period, the total consolidated investments for the 6 corridors (including additional in-
vestments during the operating phase to meet forecasted increases in service level and
replacement of materials) in Nominal terms is KES 214,446 Mln (KES 214,5 Bln).
With regards to Rolling Stock investments, the unit cost for a 4 cars train set is USD 9,2
Mln (KES 782 Mln). The investment is calculated per corridor rather than sections, as
each corridors has an incremental investment in rolling stock following the combination
of volume growth and implementation of extensions (second and third sections for cor-
ridors 1, 2 and 3) and corresponding to an increase of units in operation to maintain
scheduled services. The implementation of rolling stock/train sets, rolled out in the peri-
od 2017 to 2045 in line with expected traffic volume increase is presented in Annex 7.
Similar to the construction costs, rolling stock investment costs are calculated in real
terms and corrected an annual CPI indexation of 2.5% p.a. is applied on actual spending
(as from 1/Jan/2014). Total investment in rolling stock amounts to KES 132 Bln in
Nominal costs until 2045.
10.3.5 Operating and Maintenance Expenditures
10.3.5.1 Staff costs

The staff costs are the salary and personnel expenses for Service staff (In stations),
Maintenance staff (of network) and Train operations staff (driver and controllers).
Depending on respective facilities, staff is organised in different crew mixes which
varies in nature and headcount.
For rolling stock operations, a standard crew is assumed including drivers, conduc-
tors, attendants and a security officers.
Services are operated during 16h, in 8h shifts; to cater for this service level, train op-
erating crews are based 2.5 FTE (Full time equivalent) for each position (1 FTE per
position x 2 shifts + 0.5 FTE for reserve)
The monthly salary costs (on a 12 months per year basis) and crew/gang mixes are pre-
sented in the tables hereafter:
Table 10.1: Monthly Staff Costs and crew mixes- Stations
Monthly Crew Crew Crew Crew Crew
Costs type 1 type 2 type 3 type 4 type 5
(KES) (FTE) (FTE) (FTE) (FTE) (FTE)
station manager 108,000 1 - - - -
assistant /deputy 84,000 1 1 1 1 -
office staff 60,000 10 8 6 4 3
technician 60,000 2 1 1 1
security staff 24,000 12 10 8 6 6
Total (Monthly) Cost 1,200,000 864,000 696,000 528,000 324,000

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Table 10.2: Monthly Staff Costs and crew mixes- Maintenance Facilities
Monthly
Workshop + Workshop exten- Infrastructure
Costs
Depot sion service point
(KES)
workshop manager 400,000 - 1 -
manager/ engineer 200,000 3 2 1
office staff 60,000 3 2 1
technician 60,000 10 10 5
security staff 24,000 6 2 4
Total (Monthly) Cost 1,524,000 1,568,000 656,000
Table 10.3: Monthly Staff Costs and crew mixes- Rolling Stock(Train operations)
Monthly Crew per train
Costs (KES) (FTE)
driver 100,000 2.5
conductor 70,000 2.5
attendant 70,000 2.5
security 50,000 2.5
Total (Monthly) Cost 725,000
10.3.5.2 Rolling Stock operating and maintenance costs

The rolling stock running costs includes the following assumptions:
Daily usage (over 16h service) of 60%, for an annual usage of 90%
Operating speed 80 km/h on the overall network (for consumption calculations
Diesel consumption of 3L/hour, for a cost of 100 KES/L
Lubricant consumption equivalent to 40% of the hourly cost of diesel consumption
A annual maintenance costs of 150% of initial investment costs divided by the eco-
nomic lifetime of 30 years
An annual inflation equivalent to the CPI indexation used throughout the model
10.3.5.3 Infrastructure and buildings maintenance

The cost estimates for maintenance of infrastructures, superstructures and building (be-
sides maintenance personnel costs as presented in section 10.3.5.1 above) are function
of the (real) investment costs for each item multiplied by a given maintenance factor,
then split per periods in function on the respective economic lifetime of each type of as-
set (see section 10.3.4.1 above). The maintenance factors assumptions are:
Civil Works Maintenance 50%
Rail / Trackworks Substructures Maintenance 100%
Rail / Trackworks Superstructures Maintenance 200%
Rail / Signalling Maintenance 50%

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Rail / Electrification & power supply 150%

Rail / Communication Maintenance 50%
Rail / Passenger Information Maintenance 50%
Stations Maintenance 100%
Maintenance Facilities Maintenance 150%
Ancillary Works Maintenance 50%

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10.4 Overview of financing and procurement options
10.4.1 Project’s financing strategy

To formulate a financing strategy for the Mombasa Commuter Rail system, feasibility
and nature of generic private and public instruments is reviewed, in function of the con-
sidered timing, objective and degree of implementation achieved.
10.4.1.1 Public vs. Private financing instruments

The ability to structure and close a specific source of financing, in particular pri-
vate/commercial financing, is strongly driven by Timing and level of complexity of
specifications. As the implementation of the first section (starting with detailed design)
is currently planned to start immediately after the feasibility study is finalised, arranging
finance for the initial phase of the project is highly constrained by time. In essence, such
initial financing should be already available or at least secured. Considering this, only
public or budgetary resources, KRC’s own financing and specifically earmarked subsi-
dies (either from the GoK or an international institutions such as the World Bank) can
be realistically made available to support the first stage of development.
On a longer term, there are two main sources of financed that can be considered for the
project:
A Public/Sovereign source, arranged by KRC as borrower (most likely with a cer-
tain Guarantee from the GoK) or directly the Government of Kenya. Sovereign bor-
rowing in the form of an ODA Loan could be considered at State level and directly
allocated to finance Mombasa’s rail system, sourced from a partner country with an
objective of supporting Economic development. IFI such as the World Bank group or
the AfDB can be approached to provide either additional lending to the GoK or
KRC, or alternatively enhance the overall rating of the project by providing addition-
al guarantee products (e.g. via MIGA) and facilitate sourcing of external finance.
A private financing source, in the form of equity and debt, for future development
stages of the project. Private finance in the rail sector remains meanwhile very scarce
at global scale, as the risk profile of rail infrastructure is considered difficult to man-
age for private lenders, or at a cost to the Authority exceeding the benefits sought
from sourcing external capital. Private finance could be considered in the future stag-
es of development and targeted at rolling stock, which risk profile is more ring-
fenced to operations and easier to predict; various instruments / lease construction
have been commonly applied for Rolling Stock worldwide. Exemple of private fi-
nancing for infrastructure are limited to:
Infrastructure concessions for High Speed Track projects in Western Europe,
with a full Demand guarantee by the Authority in the form of an availability
payment (regardless of actual traffic). Only few projects in France and Spain
have been considered at full demand risk and have almost failed to close due to
the risk profiles;
This model is also commonly applied in Benelux for urban tram system, alt-
hough being Light Rail, capital investment is substantially lower and can be

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undertaken with commercial debt (with full payment guaranteed by the Au-
thority);
Combined infra and train operations concessions, including full traffic risk, for
high density connections between International airports and city centres. Exam-
ple are Dedicated rail services in Oslo or Stockholm.
In the table below we discuss the possibilities and downsides of alternative financing
mechanisms:
Table 10.4: Financing instruments for Mombasa Commuter Rail - review of opportunities
Type Public Instruments Private Instruments
Governmental / sovereign loans contracted by
KRC with a State Guarantee or directly by the
GoK, then allocated to Mombasa rail system im-
plementation. These includes ODA loan or similar, Any type of commercial debt, equity or bond
Nature
guarantees and credit-enhancement products. placement
Also could take the form of debt co-financing by
an IFI (e.g. World bank), common in infrastructure
financing.
- Financing primarily the acquisition of Rolling
Stock. Private debt for rail infrastructure financ-
ing is highly unlikely (risk profile)
Should be used in priority to finance the construc-
Use - Could be considered for construction of stations,
tion of the rail systems and buildings
should the traffic is materialising in the future,
raising the potential commercial value of build-
ing along the system
- Cheap costs of financing; - Private financing brings more stringent financial
- Ability to raise more substantial amounts under management of projects and operations, im-
a single agreement (in case of ODA financing) proving the long term viability of the system
Benefits
- Would enable long grace period in line with long - Create additional incentives to stimulate com-
construction timeframe, and long maturities in plementary commercial value to pay for the sys-
line with such project’s common term. tem
- Private finance is substantially more expensive
than ODA-type of financing, due to the high risk
ODA financing is often tied, bringing limita- profile of the project.
Downsides/ tions/rigidity in the procurement and missing on - Maturity is comparatively short, requiring ex-
Challenges most efficient technical solutions and life-cycle pensive refinancing during the project.
synergies - At regional level, as well as for rail infrastructure
in general, private capital is seldom available to
undertake such large projects.
A Public financing source is the most likely to be
possible to finance the construction of the Mom- Private financing products could be considered to
basa Commuter Rail system. Rail infrastructure is procure Rolling Stock, such as leasing solutions
on rare instances financed with private capital on PPP-based procurement including a “F” com-
Conclusions
(only few examples in Europe), and mainly for ponent. In any case, State guarantees will be criti-
commercially viable operations like High speed cal to ensure bankability of any private financing
trains or International Airports to City centres con- instruments and remove demand risk.
nections

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10.4.1.2 Context of Mombasa Commuter Rail system

The project is currently considering to start design of the initial section by the end of
2013, and start construction within 2 years. This timing already reduces the ability to
consider private financing, which would require:
Time to structure and arrange a workable/bankable solution, including required State
guarantees ,
Leave the design specifications open – output specifications – for private procure-
ment to be considered and create benefits from technological innovation
Considering this planning, the initial phase of the implementation will have to be al-
ready be secured and available from a public source.
Moreover, there have been limited recent examples of private financing solutions for
large scale rail infrastructure in OECD countries, let alone in East Africa (see section
10.4.1.1). The recent High Speed Rail private financing project in France and Spain
have face large delays due to the high risk level, and the project in Netherlands / Bel-
gium (HSL South) took almost 10 years to be completed on basis of multiple PPP con-
tracts for the various parts. These projects are based on Availability Payment mecha-
nisms, therefore eventually paid by the beneficiary Authority and without any Traffic
risk on the private financiers. This implies a high rating of the underlying State agency
to enable competitive private financing sources. A market-risk based solutions has been
briefly considered for example in Turkey in 2007/2008 for high speed rail connection
from Istanbul to Ankara, and have proven unrealistic for any private contractor to be
able to step in.
Only few individual connections, between airport and city centres (with high traffic and
high willingness to pay) have proven so far viable to be undertaken by private develop-
ers and investors. Additionally, the planned various complementary components such as
causeway and bridges represent additional risks and capital requirements, increasing the
already high level of uncertainty, which is virtually impossible to package in an overall
private financing solution of this size.
The nature of the project, to provide affordable urban transport, is by nature not seeking
to charge commercial tariffs, reducing the attractiveness of the project for commercial
developers. This would therefore only work using an Availability concept, as regularly
used for Light Rail system in Europe. Considering the current sovereign credit rating of
Kenya, further detailed studies are required to establish whether such construction is
eventually more economical for KRC.
10.4.2 Considerations with regards to PPP-based procurement and packaged financing

solutions
10.4.2.1 Infrastructure vs. Operations

We approach the project on two main levels:
1. Infrastructure: Implementation / construction of the infrastructure, including
rail tracks and systems, bridges/tunnels and buildings (stations, maintenance

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sheds, etc.). the O&M components of the infrastructure can be analysed as a

separate component (in other words can be packaged separately, although such
segregation also reduces synergies between D&B and O&M Phase).
2. Service Operations: Acquisition and operations of the Rolling Stock and com-
muter services operations (including maintenance/renewal). This is potentially
an area where private schemes may be further explored.
As identified above, a project of the size and risk level of the Mombasa Commuter Rail
system should primary seek Public financing solutions for the Infrastructure component,
more realistically in line with the amount of capital required, the time frame of the reali-
sation and the affordability.
For the second, alternative procurement routes (packaged with a private financing solu-
tion) can be considered with regards to:
Design and procurement of the Rolling Stock, including long term maintenance con-
tracts.
Management of train services and operations, including of stations. The regulation of
the network is meanwhile likely to remain under authority of KRC, for safety and in-
terface risk reasons.
10.4.2.2 Procurement and financing of rolling Stock

Private procurement of rolling stock is rather common. Various leasing or vendor fi-
nancing solutions have been used often enough to avoid complexities which may delay
the implementation of the overall project.
Under this approach, a long term contract for procurement (with maintenance services)
of the rolling stock could be taken by KRC with a manufacturer, which would include
the pre-financing provided under the same contract. Various options are possible:
The choice of a unique provider. There are direct benefits are from large volume en-
abling better pricing and long term integrated framework with a manufacturer.
Multiple contracts, renewed or retendered in connection with sizable upgrade of the
existing fleet. While lower volumes results in less bargaining power to negotiate
pricing, flexibility can potentially offset the downsides by bringing more competition
in tendering and leverage on future technological development and modernisation of
trains.
The benefits and downsides should further be investigated to test a-the feasibility and
value for money benefits from leasing/vendor financing b-the choice of a single long
term contract or multiple contracts. Considering the large investment required in terms
of Rolling Stock and the lengthy period on which they are performed, such integrated
solutions present advantages to a classic debt financing in terms of implementation and
suitability to the project planning.

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10.4.2.3 Private sector involvement in operations – Concession structures

An alternative financing and procurement route for rolling stock and operations is the
use of a packaged concession contract for train operations services, under and integrated
procurement and management contract (DBFMO). The prospective scope could be:
Design, Build & Finance the fleet of train sets required to meet the frequency and ca-
pacity targets
Ensure train operations and maintenance (O&M), under a contractual performance
framework in terms of punctuality, maintenance and availability of the rolling stock
and quality of service.
There are common models of DBFMO constructions in public transport concessions ei-
ther in rail, light rail or ferry system available and potentially applicable. Meanwhile,
due to the nature of the system of Public transport, such concession can likely not be
subject to full market risk, unlike freight transport which is by nature a commercially
driven activity and already subject to private concessions in East Africa.
Availability-based or subsidised operations in exchange of guaranteed level of quality
and financing and transfer of operational risks are the only viable scheme to make a pri-
vate DBFMO concession bankable. Additionally, there are limited regional benchmark
example to assess the feasibility of this option without further detailed PPP suitability
assessment.
10.4.3 Proposed financing structure for the feasibility study
10.4.3.1 Assumptions
In consideration of the various instruments available, the economic nature of the Mom-
basa Commuter Rail system, shear size of the necessary investment and prospective
planning for implementation, the financial appraisal is structured around the following
financing scheme:
1. An initial Public subsidy of KES 10 Bln, estimated to be available from the KES
22 Bln already allocated by the State in the current budget and complementary
grants from the World Bank10, and to be used in priority of any external financ-
ing to initiate the implementation of the system. This subsidy is primarily allo-
cated to project development and the capital investment in infrastructure.
2. A recurring annual subsidy of totalling KES 10 Bln on the period 2015-2017
(respectively KES 5 Bn, KES 2,5 Bln and KES 2,5 Bln), based on share of fore-
casted funds generated by the newly introduced Rail Development Levy (RDL)
reserved for the Mombasa Commuter Rail. This is based on an annual 8%
growth of imports on which the RDL is computed (being 1.5% of value of im-
ports)
10
To finance the detailed design of the first section as confirmed by KRC.

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3. The remainder of the financing requirement is covered by and ODA-type of debt

financing, arranged through the Ministry of Finance for the purpose of financing
the construction. It is based on the following generic terms:
a. 3% annual interest rate (typically lower but including a premium to cover
currency fluctuations)
b. 40 years maturity, annuity repayment profile
c. 10 years grace period on the repayments
d. Interest paid annually (not rolled up).
4. With regards to point 3.c, the prospective construction period is foreseen to
starch over 14 years. This imply that the ODA financing may be secured in 2
stages, to cater for longer disbursement period. For purpose of simplification, it
is assumed that this structure is implicit and the first repayment of the first
tranche carried out by the GoK, and not accounted for in the cash flow of the
project.
10.4.3.2 Definition of the Financing Gap

The financing Gap is defined as follows:
(-) Aggregated Total investment costs
(-) Aggregated Financing costs incurred during the disbursement of a credit line availa-
ble (mainly ODA loan, see above)
(+) Investment subsidies
= Financing Gap (2016-2030)
Note: with the availability of budget allocated to KRC for rail development, and the
share reserved for the Mombasa Commuter Rail, the requirement for availability of ex-
ternal financing is delayed until 2016; prior to this, capital expenditures can be funded
out of the cash reserved constituted by injection of investment subsidies.
10.4.3.3 Results: level of financing required for Mombasa Commuter Rail system imple-
mentation
On basis of a-the capital investments and implementation planning, b-the estimate of
subsidies that can be allocated to the project and c-a generic ODA-type of loan and
terms described above, the following Financing Gap is calculated:
Table 10.5: Financing Gap and ODA Loan disbursement for construction financing
in Billion KES 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Total Disbursement 5.5 12.6 13.4 19.1 19.0 19.4 15.4 21.9
of which Annual Interest 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.1
Repayments - - - - - - - -

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in Billion KES 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Total

Total Disbursement 19.8 26.3 33.0 13.5 12.6 24.8 256.3
of which Annual Interest 3.8 4.4 5.2 6.2 6.6 6.9 44.1
Repayments - - - - - - -
Over the construction period, the total financing gap is KES 256.3 Bln. This includes the
financing of interests during construction of KES 44.1 Bln (at 3% annual rate, all inclu-
sive).
This amount of financing required is based on the underlying assumptions that no re-
payments is made by KRC until the completion of the full construction in 2030. In prac-
tice it is expected that ODA type of financing allow a maximum of 10 years grace peri-
od11. It is assumed that an ODA financing being contracted at Sovereign state level will
be structured separately (and possibly more than one loan). For the purpose of the feasi-
bility assessment, the consultant has only included repayment of external financing to
be borne by the project in the Operating period to estimate the overall Funding Gap (see
section 10.5.2).
11
The grace period is the period (starting at first availability of funds) in which the lender does not require repayment of
the principal but is still entitled interests over the total sum disbursed under the loan.

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10.5 Project Scenarios returns and viability gap assessment
10.5.1 Computation of financial feasibility parameters

With the use of the financial model, we assess the viability surplus or gaps and critical
parameters for KRC’s to establish the project’s viability. These key outputs are:
1. The financial Internal Rate of Return (fIRR), on basis of the project’s free cash
flow (see Section 10.2.2 above)
2. The Net Present Value of the Project, by discounting the same free cash flow
3. The Funding Gap over the full project period (also in NPV Terms)
4. The Financing Gap over the construction period, to be addressed by external
sources
5. The level of support to the project’s viability, expressed in the amount of operat-
ing subsidies required for the operations to break-even (excluding repayment of
external financing sources, see section 10.5.2 below)
The Funding Gap is defined as the aggregated amount of free cash flow necessary to
cover operations and repay external financing (including financing costs).
10.5.2 Base Case scenario

The base case is following the capital investment plan and implementation calendar of
the 12 sections and rolling stock as presented above and in chapter [8]. Under the base
case, the construction of the first section starts in 2014 (with detailed design) and as
completed sections become operational, additional sections are implemented (following
the priority ranking) for full completion in 2030.
The respective operational periods span at minimum over 30 years life-cycle for the last
section to become operational (Corridor 6), resulting in a longer operational period for
all sections implemented before this date pro rata of their period of completion. The
maximum operating period is therefore 44 years, related to the first section (3.1 Mom-
basa - Mazeras) implemented.
In the base case scenario, operating and maintenance costs and tickets pricing are in-
dexed according to the inflation rates presented in section 10.3.2.2 above. Equipment
and structures are replaced according to their specified economic lifetime, requiring ad-
ditional capital investment during operating periods. This imply that the project will
continue operating after the project period of analysis.
Under this Base Case, the following results are calculated:
Table 10.6: Base Case Financial Feasibility Results
In Billion KES Base Case
Project IRR n/a12
12
A project IRR can not be computed on an aggregated set of negative cash flow. N/A refers to a case where an IRR is
not mathematically relevant and can not be computed.

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In Billion KES Base Case

Project NPV (@ 5%), Excl Public Subsidies* (250.7)
Project NPV (@ 5%), Incl Public Subsidies* (145.8)
Funding Gap (until 2045) 937.9
Funding Gap (discounted @ 5 %) 358.8
External Financing Required 256.3
Operating Subsidy Required (to break-even) 245.5
* investment and operating subsidies
Values in brackets are (-) negative values
As presented in the table above, the project is not financially sustainable in light of the
ticket sales only. The primary reasons is the disconnected pricing of tickets compared to
the cost of building and operating the system. In order to run at break even, KRC will
require a total subsidy (until 2045) of KES 245.6 Bln (KES 86.3 Bln in NPV terms),
which is an average yearly operating subsidy of KES 8.5 Bln13.
10.5.3 Sensitivity analysis
10.5.3.1 Alternative development = Reduced investment scenario

An alternative scenario considered is the development of corridors 1 to 4 without the
implementation of corridor 5 and 6 (Mazeras - Kaloleni - Takaungu and Malindi –
Lamu). Under this alternative scenario, the capital investment are significantly reduced
for the 2 corridors presenting the lowest prospective ridership volumes.
The result of the reduced investment scenario are presented in the following table:
Table 10.7: Reduced Investment Financial Feasibility Results
Reduced investment
In Billion KES
(no Cor. 5 and 6)
Project IRR n/a14
Project NPV (@ 5%), Excl Public Subsidies* (-201.9)
Project NPV (@ 5%), Incl Public Subsidies* (-112.4)
Funding Gap (until 2045) 674.1
Funding Gap (discounted @ 5 %) 278.9
External Financing Required 160.5
Operating Subsidy Required (to break-even) 194.2
* investment and operating subsidies
Values in brackets are (-) negative values
13
Average over of operations period of the system from completion of the first corridor until the year 2045.
14
A project IRR can not be computed on an aggregated set of negative cash flow. N/A refers to a case where an IRR is
not mathematically relevant and can not be computed.

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The reduced investment scenario as a significant impact on the funding gaps consider-
ing:
The required capital investment is reduced by 34% for infrastructure and track and
by 7.5% for rolling stock (on the period until 2045)
While the equivalent reduction in revenue is only -1%, due to the relatively lower
ridership volumes compared to corridors 1 to 4.
These 2 corridors also being realised at later stage, not implementing them results in
shortening the financing period, which adds to the cost saving potential for the KRC in
this scenario.
10.5.3.2 Sensitivity parameters tested

The following Sensitivity analysis are performed:
Sensitivities on capital costs : +/- 20% on construction (infra) and +/- 20% on rolling
stock purchase, both performed separately
Sensitivities on operations & maintenance costs : +/- 20% on infra O&M costs and
+/- 20% on rolling stock O&M costs, both performed separately
Sensitivities on volumes : +/- 20% on ridership, for all corridors
Sensitivities on planning : construction timing + 6 months for all 12 corridors (ex-
cluding the design and preparation period)
10.5.4 Results
Results of the sensitivity analysis are presented in the table below:
Table 10.8: Sensitivtiy Analysis Results
OpEx
CapEx CapEx RS OpEx - OpEx - OpEx Vol - Vol Cons +
in Billion KES RS +20 RS -
-20 +20 -20% 20 20 RS +20 20 +20 6m
20
Project IRR n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Project NPV (Excl.
(229.0) (272.3) (239.3) (262.0) (244.6) (256.7) (221.7) (279.7) (268.7) (232.7) (248.8)
Subsidies)
Project NPV (Incl.
(124.0) (167.6) (134.4) (157.2) (145.8) (145.8) (145.8) (145.8) (145.8) (145.8) (144.9)
Subsidies)
Funding Gap (until
838.2 1,037.6 889.1 986.7 919.3 956.5 848.6 1,027.2 997.0 878.8 935.6
2060)
Funding Gap (dis-
318.6 399.0 341.3 376.3 352.7 364.9 329.8 387.8 376.8 340.8 356.2
counted @ 5 %)
External Financing
214.0 298.6 241.5 271.1 256.3 256.3 256.3 256.3 256.3 256.3 256.1
Required
Operating Subsidy
Required (to break- 245.7 245.4 245.6 245.5 227.0 264.2 156.2 334.9 304.6 186.5 244.1
even)
Operating Subsidy
86.5 86.3 86.4 86.3 80.3 92.4 57.3 115.3 104.3 68.3 85.4
Required (NPV)

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OpEx
CapEx CapEx RS OpEx - OpEx - OpEx Vol - Vol Cons +
in Billion KES RS +20 RS -
-20 +20 -20% 20 20 RS +20 20 +20 6m
20
Average Annual
8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 7.8 9.1 5.4 11.5 10.5 6.4 8.4
Ops subsidy
10.5.5 Cash Flow Prognoses of the Base Case Simulation

The cash flow prognosis of the Base Case simulation is presented in the following ta-
bles.
Table 10.9 presents the projections over the D&B Period (until completion of the last
corridor)
Table 10.10 presents the projections over the operating Period (when all 12 corridors are
completed)

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Table 10.9: Cash Flow prognoses – D&B Phase

CASH FLOW STATEMENT Total 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Pre-Fcst devt devt devt devt dvt+ops dvt+ops dvt+ ops dvt+ops dvt+ops dvt+ops dvt+ops dvt+ops dvt+ops dvt+ops dvt+ops dvt+ops dvt+ops
Operational Revenue Collected CF Mln KES 295,383 - - - - - - 140 156 178 696 1,103 1,700 2,468 2,919 3,767 4,391 5,010 5,590 6,202
Target Operating Subsidy Required PL&CF Mln KES 245,555 - - - - - - 1,656 1,933 1,955 2,098 2,962 3,614 3,800 5,195 4,825 5,583 8,305 8,592 8,359
Stations Ops Total Staff Costs PL&CF Mln KES (21,935) - - - - - - (93) (96) (99) (181) (242) (295) (333) (448) (482) (536) (594) (622) (640)
Maintenance Hubs Total Staff Costs PL&CF Mln KES (1,379) - - - - - - - - - - - - - (19) (22) (32) (36) (37) (38)
Rolling Stock Total Staff Costs PL&CF Mln KES (24,163) - - - - - - (78) (81) (83) (139) (176) (227) (269) (349) (360) (409) (579) (596) (614)
Operational Expenditure Paid CF Mln KES (492,238) - - - - - - (1,267) (1,479) (1,519) (2,473) (3,647) (4,793) (5,665) (7,297) (7,728) (8,998) (12,106) (12,927) (13,269)
Net Ope rating Cash Flow Before Tax Mln KES 1,223 - - - - - 357 433 433 - - - - - - - - - -
Corporate Tax Paid CF Mln KES (1,223) - - - - - - (357) (433) (433) - - - - - - - - - -

Net Operating Cash Flow After Tax Mln KES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Total FA Capital Expenditures CF Mln KES (169,665) - - (660) (1,902) (6,602) (9,598) (12,470) (12,812) (13,636) (11,876) (13,491) (9,829) (11,743) (15,976) (16,670) (12,779) (7,342) (6,063) (6,215)
Total Rolling Stock Nominal Costs CF Mln KES (132,725) - - - - - (6,737) - - (4,534) (5,577) (3,811) (2,930) (7,007) - (5,259) (15,092) - - (11,609)
Asset Class-Land&Infra Reinvestment, Nominal CF Mln KES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Asset Class-Power Supply & Ancillaries Reinvestment, Nominal CF Mln KES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Asset Class-Superstructures&Buildings Reinvestment, Nominal CF Mln KES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Asset Class-Rolling Stock Reinvestment, Nominal CF Mln KES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Asset Class-Signalling&Communication Reinvestment, Nominal CF Mln KES (2,384) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Asset Class-Development Cos ts Reinvestment, Nominal CF Mln KES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Investment During Operational Phase Nominal CF Mln KES (42,397) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Investment Subsidy Rec eived CF Mln KES 20,000 - - 10,000 7,500 2,500 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Free Cash Flow Mln KES (327,171) - 9,340 5,598 (4,102) (16,335) (12,470) (12,812) (18,171) (17,453) (17,302) (12,759) (18,751) (15,976) (21,929) (27,871) (7,342) (6,063) (17,824)
Equity Injection CF Mln KES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

SubDebt Amount Disbursed CF Mln KES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
ODA Senior Debt Disbursement CF Mln KES 256,296 - - - - - 5,500 12,635 13,356 19,115 18,971 19,390 15,428 21,882 19,764 26,310 33,041 13,504 12,630 24,769
Upfront Fee Paid CF Mln KES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Commitment Fee Paid CF Mln KES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Cash Flow Available for Debt Service Mln KES (70,875) - 9,340 5,598 (4,102) (10,836) 165 544 945 1,518 2,087 2,669 3,132 3,788 4,381 5,171 6,162 6,567 6,946
ODA Senior Debt Interest Paid CF Mln KES (132,497) - - - - - - (165) (544) (945) (1,518) (2,087) (2,669) (3,132) (3,788) (4,381) (5,171) (6,162) (6,567) (6,946)
ODA Senior Debt Linear Repay ment CF Mln KES (256,296) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Cash Flow Available for Subordinated Debt Mln KES (459,668) - 9,340 5,598 (4,102) (10,836) (0) 0 0 0 (0) - 0 0 0 0 (0) - (0)
Subordinated Debt Interest Paid CF Mln KES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Subordinated Debt Sculpted Repayment CF Mln KES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Cash Flow Available for Equity Mln KES (459,668) - 9,340 5,598 (4,102) (10,836) (0) 0 0 0 (0) - 0 0 0 0 (0) - (0)
Equity Redeemed CF Mln KES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Cash Flow Available for Dividends Mln KES (459,668) - 9,340 5,598 (4,102) (10,836) (0) 0 0 0 (0) - 0 0 0 0 (0) - (0)
Dividends Declared&Paid PL&CF Mln KES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Net Cash Movement over the Period Mln KES (459,668) - 9,340 5,598 (4,102) (10,836) (0) 0 0 0 (0) - 0 0 0 0 (0) - (0)
Cash Balance BEG Mln KES - - 9,340 14,938 10,836 - (0) 0 0 0 (0) (0) (0) 0 0 0 (0) (0)
Plus:
Net Cas h Movement over the Period - Mln KES (459,668) - - 9,340 5,598 (4,102) (10,836) (0) 0 0 0 (0) - 0 0 0 0 (0) - (0)
Cash Balance Mln KES - 9,340 14,938 10,836 - (0) 0 0 0 (0) (0) (0) 0 0 0 (0) (0) (0)
Table 10.10: Cash Flow prognoses – Operating Phase until 2045

CASH FLOW STATEMENT Tota l 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045
ops ops ops ops ops ops ops ops ops ops ops ops ops ops ops
Operational Revenue Collected CF Mln KES 295,383 - 8,138 9,031 9,995 11,035 12,154 13,422 14,787 16,255 17,832 19,524 21,417 23,448 25,624 27,954 30,446
Target Operating Subsidy Required PL&CF Mln KES 245,555 - 9,789 10,294 10,400 11,170 11,348 11,372 11,768 12,503 12,226 12,575 13,128 13,703 13,412 13,581 14,271
Stations Ops Total Staff Costs PL&CF Mln KES (21,935) - (722) (767) (815) (866) (921) (980) (1,042) (1,109) (1,180) (1,256) (1,337) (1,424) (1,517) (1,616) (1,721)
Maintenance Hubs Total Staff Costs PL&CF Mln KES (1,379) - (54) (57) (60) (63) (66) (70) (73) (77) (82) (86) (91) (96) (101) (107) (113)
Rolling Stock Total Staff Costs PL&CF Mln KES (24,163) - (777) (829) (885) (974) (1,036) (1,100) (1,185) (1,309) (1,366) (1,463) (1,604) (1,732) (1,825) (1,964) (2,153)
Operational Expenditure Paid CF Mln KES (492,238) - (16,375) (17,672) (18,635) (20,301) (21,478) (22,644) (24,255) (26,263) (27,430) (29,293) (31,513) (33,900) (35,594) (37,850) (40,730)
Net Opera ting Ca sh Flow Be fore Ta x Mln KES 1,223 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Corporate Tax Paid CF Mln KES (1,223) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Net Opera ting Ca sh Flow Afte r Tax Mln KES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Total FA Capital Expenditures CF Mln KES (169,665) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Total Rolling Stock Nominal Costs CF Mln KES (132,725) - (2,380) (2,439) (6,251) (2,563) (2,627) (5,385) (6,900) (1,414) (5,799) (7,430) (7,616) (3,123) (6,401) (9,842) -
Asset Class-Land&Infra Reinvestment, Nominal CF Mln KES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Asset Class-Power Supply & Ancillaries Reinvestment, Nominal CF Mln KES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Asset Class-Superstructures&Buildings Reinvestment, Nominal CF Mln KES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Asset Class-Rolling Stock Reinvestment, Nominal CF Mln KES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Asset Class-Signalling&Communication Reinvestment, Nominal CF Mln KES (2,384) - - - - - - - (883) - - (158) (140) (352) - (491) (360)
Asset Class-Development Costs Reinvestment, Nominal CF Mln KES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Investment During Operational Phase Nominal CF Mln KES (42,397) - (4,867) (3,200) (2,789) (1,236) (1,870) (1,683) - (3,689) - (1,621) (3,725) (1,807) (5,646) (4,102) (6,162)
Investment Subsidy Received CF Mln KES 20,000 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Fre e Ca sh Flow Mln KES (327,171) (7,247) (5,639) (9,040) (3,799) (4,496) (7,068) (7,783) (5,103) (5,799) (9,209) (11,481) (5,281) (12,047) (14,435) (6,522)
Equity Injection CF Mln KES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

SubDebt Amount Disbursed CF Mln KES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
ODA Senior Debt Disbursement CF Mln KES 256,296 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Upfront Fee Paid CF Mln KES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Commitment Fee Paid CF Mln KES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Cash Flow Ava ila ble for De bt Se rvice Mln KES (70,875) (7,247) (5,639) (9,040) (3,799) (4,496) (7,068) (7,783) (5,103) (5,799) (9,209) (11,481) (5,281) (12,047) (14,435) (6,522)
ODA Senior Debt Interest Paid CF Mln KES (132,497) - (7,689) (7,433) (7,176) (6,920) (6,664) (6,407) (6,151) (5,895) (5,639) (5,382) (5,126) (4,870) (4,613) (4,357) (4,101)
ODA Senior Debt Linear Repayment CF Mln KES (256,296) - (8,543) (8,543) (8,543) (8,543) (8,543) (8,543) (8,543) (8,543) (8,543) (8,543) (8,543) (8,543) (8,543) (8,543) (8,543)
Cash Flow Ava ila ble for Subordinate d De bt Mln KES (459,668) (23,479) (21,615) (24,759) (19,262) (19,703) (22,019) (22,477) (19,541) (19,981) (23,134) (25,150) (18,694) (25,203) (27,335) (19,166)
Subordinated Debt Interest Paid CF Mln KES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Subordinated Debt Sculpted Repayment CF Mln KES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Cash Flow Ava ila ble for Equity Mln KES (459,668) (23,479) (21,615) (24,759) (19,262) (19,703) (22,019) (22,477) (19,541) (19,981) (23,134) (25,150) (18,694) (25,203) (27,335) (19,166)
Equity Redeemed CF Mln KES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Cash Flow Ava ila ble for Dividends Mln KES (459,668) (23,479) (21,615) (24,759) (19,262) (19,703) (22,019) (22,477) (19,541) (19,981) (23,134) (25,150) (18,694) (25,203) (27,335) (19,166)
Dividends Declared&Paid PL&CF Mln KES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Net Ca sh Move ment ove r the Pe riod Mln KES (459,668) (23,479) (21,615) (24,759) (19,262) (19,703) (22,019) (22,477) (19,541) (19,981) (23,134) (25,150) (18,694) (25,203) (27,335) (19,166)
Cash Balance BEG Mln KES (0) (23,479) (45,094) (69,853) (89,115) (108,818) (130,837) (153,314) (172,856) (192,837) (215,971) (241,121) (259,816) (285,019) (312,354)
Plus:
Net Cash Movement over the Period - Mln KES (459,668) - (23,479) (21,615) (24,759) (19,262) (19,703) (22,019) (22,477) (19,541) (19,981) (23,134) (25,150) (18,694) (25,203) (27,335) (19,166)
Cash Balance Mln KES (23,479) (45,094) (69,853) (89,115) (108,818) (130,837) (153,314) (172,856) (192,837) (215,971) (241,121) (259,816) (285,019) (312,354) (331,520)

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11 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
11.1 Technical concept

For the further planning of the project a detailed programme of all necessary studies and
project definitions required must be established.
Update of maps and planning information is essential. This includes topographical, geo-
technical and hydrological studies and field surveys. With the updated project basis a
further optimisation of the design is possible, which will limit the risks of the invest-
ment costs.
The project definitions include the determination of applicable railway standards, in par-
ticular with regards to minimum clearance outline, technical parameters for the align-
ment, and permissible axle loads.
The location of the city of Mombasa on the island requires a couple of large bridges for
the connection of the railway to the mainland and to cross the long creeks northern to
Mombasa. These bridges have a high impact on the costs of the project:
Table 11.1: Large bridges of the Corridor 1: Mombasa – Likoni – Ramisi
Name Structure Mileage from - to Length Costs (mn KES)
Mwache Creek Bridge km 12.5 km 13.3 800 m 3’456
Tsunza Viaduct Bridge km 13.3 km 15.8 2’500 m 6’912
Bombo Creek Bridge km 19.1 km 20.7 1’600 m 7’200
Table 11.2: Large bridges of the Corridor 2: Mombasa – Kilifi – Malindi

Mombasa City Viaduct Bridge km 0.6 km 2.2 1'600 m 4’608
Mombasa Harbour Bridge km 2.2 km 3.0 800 m 4’896
Mtwapa Creek Bridge km 14.9 km 15.3 350 m 2’142
Takaungu Creek Bridge km 48.4 km 48.7 300 m 1’836
Kilifi Creek Bridge km 53.3 km 53.9 550 m 3’366
Mida Creek Bridge km 87.6 km 88.2 600 m 3’672
Table 11.3: Large bridges of the Corridor 4: Likoni Ferry – Junda – Bamburi
Junda Creek Bridge km 6.4 km 7.3 900 m 7’344
The consultant recommends to create an in-depth feasibility study for these bridge struc-
tures to verify the feasibility and the estimated costs as well as for limitation of the risks
before detailed planning is started.

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11.2 Environmental and social impact
The development of the Mombasa commuter railway is expected to have an overall pos-
itive impact on the environment, as railway transport is a sustainable alternative to in-
creasing motorised vehicle traffic. However, the impacts of the project on many differ-
ent aspects of the physical, natural and socio-economic environment will be considera-
ble, due to:
The extensive scale of the area traversed by the railway corridors.
The large variety of land uses it crosses, including densely inhabited urban areas, a
very high number of small parcels of land, and areas of high biodiversity.
The Consultant therefore recommends:
Carrying out a full ESIA and RAP in the next project stage
Making the Preliminary ESIA and especially the planning phase ESMP available
to the detailed design engineers: the need for and/or extent of many mitigation
measures recommended for the construction and operation phases can be reduced
or made redundant by applying the recommended planning phase measures.
A strong focus on continued stakeholder involvement throughout the next project
phases.
11.3 Economic appraisal

The economic analysis for the total project concludes that this project is not recom-
mendable in total. The benefit/cost factor is above one but the net present value of the
total project is negative and the economic internal rate of return is below 5.5%.
The corridor 6: Malindi – Lamu is not recommended to be included in the Mombasa
commuter railway network. The passenger traffic which is forecasted for this corridor is
very low with an only slight increase up to 2045. This corridor should be examined by a
new study with the focus freight transport in conjunction with the Lamu port project.
The corridor 5 Mazeras – Takaungu shall be included to this freight traffic study, repre-
senting a bypass to Mombasa for freight trains from Lamu to Nairobi. The focus to
heavy freight traffic to be considered on this line requires different standards than for
commuter railways and the alignment which is developed for commuter railway in cor-
ridor 5 will not match the requirements for heavy freight transport.
The consultant recommends to proceed the project including the corridors 1 – 4. The re-
duced project without corridors 5 and 6 has an enhanced benefit/cost factor, the net pro-
ject value is positive and the economic internal rate of return is above 5.5%.
However, the socio-economic analysis is not the only factor used to justify the choice of
a project and it is up to the KRC, the Kenyan authorities and other stakeholders to dis-
cuss further effects and advantages which were not put into comparable values and eco-
nomic calculation methods. Furthermore, the risk analysis and the sensitivity analysis
show that the results of the calculation change when the input value differ from those
used in this study.

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It is therefore recommended to conduct further design studies and traffic demand inves-
tigations (e.g. including freight traffic demand) for the purpose of obtaining more pre-
cise cost and benefit assumptions.
11.4 Financial assessment

On basis of the above analysis, with regards to the financial viability and feasibility of
the Mombasa Commuter Rail project, we can draw the following conclusions and rec-
ommendations:
1. Considering the primary objective of the project to enhance mobility of popula-
tion and provide a competitive, safe, reliable and sustainable alternative mode of
transport in the Mombasa and surrounding urban centres, the level of the ticket
price charged to users is in essence disconnected from the economic cost of the
project, in order to achieve other wider economic benefits.
2. Acknowledging this core objective, the Mombasa Commuter Rail project is not
considered financially viable and able to sustain its own financing, as the cost of
running the services exceeds the actual direct revenue to be expected from rid-
ership. Operations will require an operating subsidy to break-even, which should
at minimum equal the economic (direct and indirect) gains expected from the
project’s implementation. This is illustrated by the fact that the NPV of the pro-
ject is negative over the considered project period, for which a financial IRR
cannot be computed. The Funding Gap on the overall project period amount to
KES 358,8 Bln (in Net Present Value terms over the period 2014-2060, dis-
counted at 5% p.a.).
3. Pursuant to point 2., the project cannot sustain its own external financing, neces-
sary in addition to Publicly-sourced investment subsidies already identified to
support rail projects in Kenya; requirement for external financing to pay for in-
vestments shall be sought at Sovereign level or directly on KRC’s balance sheet,
although eventually fully guaranteed by the GoK.
4. The reduced investment scenario, under which corridors 5 and 6 are not imple-
mented, significantly reduces public resources required. As the reduction of rev-
enue is relatively minor compared to the savings in capital investments, the
funding gap is 30% lower for KRC.
5. It is highly unlikely that private financing sources can be found to support the
design and construction of the project, particularly acknowledging that detailed
design is already scheduled by KRC for the initial stage, which further lowers
prospective Value-for-Money gains theoretically arising from integrated private
contracting and financing (input vs. output-specifications-driven procurement).
Only with full recourse on the GoK could private financing be feasible, which
would in the render this source more expensive than public financing and cancel
the Value-for-Money benefits necessary to justify private sector involvement.
6. Potential involvement of Private Sector may be sought at the operational level of
the project. Such involvement should achieve a higher price-quality ratio for
KRC in Maintenance and Operations, by partially transferring the operational

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risk on experienced international private operator(s), except the key Demand
risk which by nature can only be supported by KRC or the GoK in recognition
of the substantial (indirect) economic benefits gained from the project’s imple-
mentation (being a public service). Such involvement may include specific fi-
nancing instruments for parts of the project, particularly an integrated DBFM(O)
concession for rolling stock and train operations, with full demand risk support-
ed by KRC/GoK. It is strongly recommended to carry out further detailed Value
for Money assessment studies and analysis, with the realisation of a PPC and a
PSC, to confirm the level of benefits of private concession of operations and jus-
tify further PPP-based life-cycle procurement and financing package.
7. Considering the nature of the project, public financing sources in the form of
ODA-type of lending provided by Sovereign partners is the most likely route
(with or without complementary support from IFIs such as the World Bank and
the African Development Bank), which by nature provides for very long term
maturities, large facilities to undertake project of this size and low long term in-
terest rates. Meanwhile, it is important to highlight that ODA financing is often
tied to prescribed procurement rules from the lending State which in itself may
impact the overall cost and calendar of procuring the project.
11.5 Road Map

The Road Map for the implementation of the project, as described in section 4.5 may be
shifted by one year to be base for the implementation of the reduced project, leaving out
the corridors 5 and 6. According to the intermediate results obtained during its deve-
lopment the project may be adjusted by acceleration or deceleration of the rate of devel-
opment.

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12 REVIEW OF ASSUMPTIONS, CHANCES AND RISKS
12.1 Introduction
The Final Report brings an update of the risk analysis presented in the Inception Report
with the findings of the study. It concentrates on those items which are essential for the
future realisation of the project.
12.2 General
Although KRC requires risk assessments throughout the Project, we would like to un-
derline that it is not our intention to merely reduce this to a subject with a “negative per-
ception”. Clearly, we wish to address it as a “Chances and Risks” issue, because all of
us want to work out the Project as a “positive” one.
In our philosophy, chances must be taken and risk must be controlled; very often, how-
ever we meet the primary focus on risk mitigation, with the identification of chances be-
ing subordinate to it.
In the following, Sections 12.3 through 12.8 refer to external aspects that would affect
the implementation and operation of the Project.
The following tables indicate the understanding of each risk as well as measures to be
taken for its control and mitigation. The key issue is the on-time identification of the
risks and taking of preventive measures to avoid them. In any case for all the risks that
are identified corrective measures should also be foreseen.
12.3 Political Risks
Risk Action to be taken

Lack of support to the project by politi- During all phases:
cal institutions Ensure early involvement of all political
institutions affected
Lack of Approval from Environmental During the planning and development
Authorities phases:
Preventive Measures:
- Environmental studies prepared and in-
clusion of necessary modifications
Corrective Measures:
- Division of the works contracts in lots
and preparing the tender documents for
works contracts for those sections that are
not affected by the lack of approval
- Search of alternative solutions for the in-
feasible part of the projects

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Kenya Wildlife Service: During the planning and development
KWS has until now been absent from phases:
the stakeholder meetings, and has in- It is strongly recommended that the Client
formally communicated to the local engage with KWS as soon as possible to
environmental experts that they had not ensure that the project is approved by
been involved in the project sufficiently NEMA.
early.
NEMA will consult KWS before ap-
proving the Project, hence there is a
strong risk of lack of approval if KWS
is not actively involved as soon as pos-
sible.
Changes to the regulatory and statutory During all project phases:
frameworks set out for the Project. Close monitoring of trends and eventual
It is assumed that this “skeleton” re- upcoming changes would facilitate early
mains largely unchanged. adjustments of the Project and could re-
duce the impact of such changes
It can be difficult for the local authori- During the planning, development and
ties and NGOs to accept proposed construction phases:
measures Early involvement and communication
The new infrastructure operation and During all project phases:
methods of maintenance could be diffi- Early involvement and communication.
cult to accept for the respective entities Recruitment and training of staff.
12.4 Economic Risks

Uncertainties related to the general de- During all project phases:
velopment of the Kenyan economy Risk outside KRC’s control, but KRC
should monitor the changes to the Kenyan
economy in so far it could affect the Pro-
ject, and adjust its implementation accord-
ingly.

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A perception that the project will kill During all project phases:
other players in the passenger transport KRC is encouraged to handle the Project
sector with the public involved. It might be useful
to share opinions and experience with oth-
er railway or transportation system provid-
ers in neighbouring countries which re-
cently passed through the same develop-
ment.
Build up an integrated transport system
which brings advantages to all participants
and the overall welfare for Kenya..
A weak population data base will lead During the planning, development and
to greater uncertainties in passenger construction phases:
demand. The current population forecast are based
on United Nation data. Updates should be
monitored and the project should be, if
necessary, adapted to new developments.
A step-wise implementation of the Project
allows surveying the behaviour of travel-
lers and adjusting the traffic forecasts for
the further implementation.
12.5 Legal Framework

Kenya has a new constitution which is During all project phases:
still being rolled out This is an external risk which is outside the
sphere of influence of KRC.
Most of the legislative framework cov- During all project phases:
ering rail infrastructure has not yet been This risk is outside KRC’s control, but
developed KRC could exert influence on the lawmak-
ers through lobbying.

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12.6 Financial Risks

Project budget and cost overruns in During the development phase:
construction (lack of financing) Entering various forward purchase con-
tracts to supply material and components
(e.g. steel price hedging contract), although
the cost would accrue to KRC; the ques-
tion is to assess whether the potential risk
is higher than the cost of entering for-
ward/hedging contracts.
During the development and construc-
tion phases:
Procuring the construction through a fixed-
price EPC would enable to pass cost-
overruns to a contractor in charge of con-
struction of the rail sections.
Include sufficient contingencies in the
budget preparation.
During the construction phases:
Avoid changes to the projects and addi-
tional requirements, as these always lead to
additional costs.
Availability of financing During the Financing Phase:
Engage with GoK stakeholders and IFIs to
seek for complementary financing sources
ahead of starting the construction.
Obtain firm commitment from GoK on
budget allocation from the General Budget
for the longer term or on the actual use of
the import duty earmarked for rail project.
Interest and exchange rate fluctuations During the financing and funding phas-
es:
KRC should ensure adequate procedure
with the Ministry of Finance and the fund-
ing agencies. These risks can be mitigated
though Hedging mechanisms, but the cost
of hedging instrument will accrue to KRC;
the question is to assess whether the poten-
tial risk is higher than the cost of entering
interest and currency hedging contracts,
particularly since the development is
spread on a long period.

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Income from ticket sales and marketing During the planning, development, fi-
activities is uncertain nancing and funding phases:
A robust tariff system which is well proved
in Kenya and reflects the local economic
conditions in the catchment areas could
mitigate this risk. Additional revenue could
be generated through the introduction of
freight transport.
Implementation of automatic/centralized
fare collection systems to enhance the level
of collection of fare, enhance transparency
of the system and reduce effects of free
riders.
Unrealistic terms for the concession of During the planning, development, fi-
operations could result in a failure to nancing and funding phases:
obtain serious bids. The tender for a concession should not be
issued before the scope of the services is
clearly defined.
12.7 Technical Risks

Kenya lacks unified rail industry stand- During the planning and development
ards. phases:
KRC should establish common technical
standards and guidelines for all railway
projects in Kenya.
The lack of a safety philosophy to run During the planning and development
the railway system hinders the choice phases:
of a suitable signalling and train control KRC should establish one common safety
system philosophy for all railway projects in Ken-
ya
Need for technical changes during the During the planning and development
project development due to insufficient phases:
or inaccurate project data (cartography, Define which studies are required and en-
geo-logy, hydrology) sure that their results are obtained in time

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12.8 Operational Risks

Lack of skills by management and op- During the development and construc-
erations and maintenance staff tion phases:
Establish training and qualification re-
quirements for such staff at an early stage
and ensure that the responsibilities for their
implementation are defined and binding
for the parties concerned
The difference between line capacity During the planning and development
and the future demand phases:
Include options for additional rolling stock
units in procurement contract.
During the planning, development and
construction phases:
Additional infrastructure elements should
be foreseen to have the possibility of up-
grading the offered train services (e.g.
double tracks in stations and on certain
sections, stabling facilities).

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13 ANNEXES
13.1 Annex 1: Corridor Study Mapbook
13.2 Annex 2: Population Mapbook

Table 13.1: Content of Corridor Study and Population Mapbook
Page Corridor
1/38 Overview
Corridor 1: Mombasa - Ramisi 1/5
Corridor 2: Mombasa -Mtwapa - Kilifi - Malindi 1/7
2/38
Corridor 3: Mombasa - Mazeras - Voi 1/9
Corridor 4: Likoni Ferry - Bamburi
Corridor 2: Alternative Ras Makawaiwa Bridge
3/38
Corridor 4: Alternative Polytechnic University
4/38 Corridor 1: Alternative Airport Tunnel
5/38 Corridor 1: Alternative Port Reitz 1/2
6/38 Corridor 1: Alternative Port Reitz 2/2
7/38 Corridor 1: Mombasa - Ramisi 2/5
11/38 Corridor 2: Mombasa -Mtwapa - Kilifi - Malindi 2/7
Corridor 2: Mombasa -Mtwapa - Kilifi - Malindi 7/7
16/38
Corridor 6: Malindi - Lamu 1/12
17/38 Corridor 2: Alternative Gede
Corridor 3: Mombasa - Mazeras - Voi 2/9
18/38
Corridor 5: Mazeras - Kaloleni - Takaungu 1/3
19/38 Corridor 3: Mombasa - Mazeras - Voi 3/9

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Page Corridor
26/38 Corridor 5: Mazeras - Kaloleni - Takaungu 2/3
27/38 Corridor 5: Mazeras - Kaloleni - Takaungu 3/3
28/38 Corridor 6: Malindi - Lamu 2/12
13.3 Annex 3: Longitudinal Sections Mapbook

Table 13.2: Content of Longitudinal Sections Mapbook
Page Corridor
13/16 Corridor 5: Mazeras – Kaloleni – Takaungu 1/3
16/16 Corridor 4: Likoni Ferri – Bamburi 1/1

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13.4 Annex 4: Preliminary Environmental and Social Impact Assessment
13.5 Annex 5: Environment Mapbook
13.6 Annex 6: Socio-Economic Mapbook

Table 13.3: Content of Environment and Socio-economic Mapbook
Page Corridor
1/32 Overview
Corridor Mombasa Ring 1/1
Corridor Mikindani Connection 1/1
Corridor Moi International Airport Alternative 1/1
2/32
Corridor Mombasa - Mtwapa - Kilifi - Malindi 1/9
Corridor Mombasa - Airport - Ramisi 1/7
Corridor Port Reitz Alternative 1/3
3/32 Corridor Mombasa - Mtwapa - Kilifi - Malindi 2/9
5/32
Corridor Mazeras - Kaloleni - Takaunga 3/3
8/32
Gede Alternative 1/2
9/32
Gede Alternative 2/2
11/32 Corridor Malindi - Lamu 1/14
25/32 Corridor Mazeras - Kaloleni - Takaunga 1/3
26/32 Corridor Mazeras - Kaloleni - Takaunga 2/3
27/32 Corridor Mombasa - Airport - Ramisi 2/7

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Page Corridor
Corridor Mombasa - Airport - Ramisi 3/7
28/32
13.7 Annex 7: Cost Estimation Investment Costs
13.8 Annex 8: Cost Estimation Operation Costs

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Internal document control
Client Kenya Railways Corporation KRC

Title Final Report
Project KRC/PLM/40/2011 Mombasa Commuter Railways
Feasibility Study
Phase A
Project No. 190 591.30
Classification
Drawing/Reg./Serial No.
File name 190591.10 Mombasa FR bec 140527.docx

File location
System Microsoft Word 14.0
External distribution
Internal distribution
Contribution
Responsible BU
Revisions:
Original
Date of document 28.05.2014
Author/position/signature Christian Bergerhoff, Project Manager
Date of control
Checked by/position/signature Johan Dehli, Senior Engineer
A
Date of document
Author/position/signature
Date of control
Checked by/position/signature
B
Date of document
Author/position/signature
Date of control
Checked by/position/signature

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MOMBASA COMMUTER RAILWAYS FEASIBILITY STUDY

190 591.10 Mombasa Final Report

KENYA RAILWAYS CORPORATION KRC

KRC/PLM/40/2011 Mombasa Commuter Railways Feasibility Study

Copyright © Pöyry Switzerland Ltd.

Pöyry Switzerland Ltd.

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Pöyry Switzerland Ltd., in collaboration with GA Consultants, was appointed by Kenya

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1 FRAMEWORK OF THE FINAL REPORT .................................................................. 10

1.1 Final Report ....................................................................................................................... 10

2 PROJECT BACKGROUND ........................................................................................... 14

2.1 The country and its people ................................................................................................. 14

3 MARKET STUDY AND TRAFFIC DEMAND FORECAST ....................................... 25

3.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 25

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3.5 Appraisal of the Operating System ..................................................................................... 53

4 ROUTE LOCATION AND ALIGNMENT .................................................................... 55

4.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 55

5 OPERATIONAL CONCEPT .......................................................................................... 89

5.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 89

6 RAILWAY TECHNOLOGY ........................................................................................ 100

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6.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 100

7 PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL IMPACT ANALYSIS .......... 122

7.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 122

7.5.3 Environmental and Social Management Plan ................................................................... 131

8 PRELIMINARY COST ESTIMATES ......................................................................... 135

8.1 General ............................................................................................................................ 135

9 ECONOMIC APPRAISAL ........................................................................................... 145

9.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 145

10 FINANCIAL ASESSMENT .......................................................................................... 161

10.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 161

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10.3.3 Revenue input assumptions .............................................................................................. 167

11 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS......................................................... 184

11.1 Technical concept ............................................................................................................ 184

12 REVIEW OF ASSUMPTIONS, CHANCES AND RISKS........................................... 188

12.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 188

13 ANNEXES ...................................................................................................................... 194

13.1 Annex 1: Corridor Study Mapbook .................................................................................. 194

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Table 1.1: Report Schedules ........................................................................................................ 11

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Figure 2.1: Kenya - Geography ..................................................................................................... 14

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Figure 4.18: Tsavo National Park, Bachuma Gate ........................................................................... 72

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1 FRAMEWORK OF THE FINAL REPORT

1.1 Final Report

1.2 Scope of Work

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1.3 Outputs/ Deliverables

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1.4 Limitation of the Scope of Work

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1.5 Optional Tasks

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2.1 The country and its people

government represented by the commissioners.

Environment and social impact

National Development Policy