CÁC YẾU TỐ ẢNH HƯỞNG ĐẾN TỶ GIÁ VND/USD

1. Effects of Covid epidemic on the VND / USD exchange rate:

The effect of covid epidemic on the VND / USD exchange rate includes 2 stages:

 The first period is mainly the Chinese boom

Under the complicated developments of the Covid-19 epidemic, currencies in the

world fluctuated, and currencies of many major trading partner countries of
Vietnam also depreciated. Although Central Banks of countries have continuously
made policy moves to support market liquidity, these policies need time before
they can effectively impact on the market. In that context, the exchange rate
between the VND and the US dollar has also increased over the past time when
fluctuations in the international market and changes in Covid-19 have affected the
psychology of the domestic market.
The VND / USD exchange rate increased sharply, as the USD on international
markets increased in response to concerns of investors when the disease caused by
Covid-19 broke out and threatened to spread. This makes the domestic exchange
rate also fluctuated.
At the end of January 2020, the USD price was popularly listed by banks at 23,165
VND / USD (bought in) - 23,305 VND / USD (sold out), an increase of 60 VND /
USD compared to the time before Tet. By early February 2020, the exchange rate
sometimes increased by 35 VND / USD, to 23,200 VND / USD (bought in) -
23,340 VND / USD (sold out), even at times increased by 90 VND / USD. The
dollar appreciated in the international market before the complicated evolution of
the epidemic, as well as the information about the operating policy of the US
Federal Reserve (FED). Due to the decline in trade and tourism, the supply of
foreign currency is not abundant, the stock market tends to decline, people mainly
buy necessities. At that time, the US economy was quite stable because the US
economy was not affected much by the covid epidemic, so the USD was trusted,
buying USD made the demand for USD increase, leading to the sharp increase of
USD / VND exchange rate. Besides, when other types of assets such as gold, oil,
stocks and currencies of other countries do not have enough confidence, investors
tend to choose USD as a safe haven.
 Stage 2. After WHO announced that COVID-19 became a global pandemic
The US economy began to be affected, reducing people's trusted in the USD,
causing the demand for USD to decrease and the price of the USD started to
 decrease. Instead, people invested in gold, causing the gold price to peak in May
2020.
The pressure of the world USD price on the USD / VND exchange rate is only
short-term. When disease movements in the coming time are better controlled, the
confidence of investors in economies and commodity markets will be improved,
thereby, the foreign currency market will be more balanced. From the peak of
23,650 VND / USD, the exchange rate fell rapidly and fluctuated at 23,200 VND /
USD at the end of June. On the free market, the exchange rate also cooled down to
23,190 - 23,220 VND /USD.
 Quote:

title of the article Author Year Variable used

Spillover effects Zhixi Wei, Yu 2020 Dịch covid, giá
of RMB Luo, Zili USD,
exchange rate Huang, Kun VND/USD,
among B&R Guo. CNY/USD
countries: Before
and during
COVID-19 event

Using Spillover effects mention to unpredictable events in China that have an impact on
the economies of other countries, including Vietnam.

The exchange rate, as determined by money supply, price level, national income, interest
rates, output and other relative economic variables.

There are three main paths to the spread of volatile exchange rates. The first is related to
trade integration - countries within a geographic region tend to form regional monetary
blocs. The second one concerns the active global financial markets, where geographically
decentralized countries are interlinked. The third is between countries that have a fixed
exchange rate regime.
Obviously, as shown in Table 1, VND, AOA has a relatively high coefficient of variation,
showing that the exchange rates of these currencies fluctuate dramatically during the
period due to the impact of covid translation.

The results of the time-varying Spillover Index indicate that the risk of exchange rate
spread across B&R countries is significant. Regarding their economic and trade relations
as well as some unexpected crises occurred in these countries

2. Effects of Real estate on the VND / USD exchange rate:

Real estate maybe considered as a lucrative investment asset, its process uses domestic
materials, so it can be said that Real estate and exchange rates have impact on each other.
When domestic property prices fall (low prices) people tend to invest, causing the VND /
USD rate to rise and when the exchange rate is too high or house prices rise too much,
the changes in expectations will lead to an outflow of foreign capital, and house prices
will fall down because of not enough financial capability. Therefore, Real estate is
considered a long-term investment channel.

Vietnamese real estate has been considered relatively attractive with lower prices and
higher rate of return compared with other regional markets such as Thailand, Singapore
and Hong Kong.
The economic grow rapidly, it was predicted the domestic currency will appeciate also
the high interest rates and higher domestic house prices. Capital of the real estate market
come from 2 ways: Direct purchase of residential houses, commercial real estate and
developing the real estate projects or invest the real estate of foreign companies or real
estate investment by commission.

3. Effect of oil prices on the VND / USD exchange rate

Another factor that is correlated with exchange rate similar to gold is crude oil - can
be called the world's "black gold" because it is one of the most important raw
materials of many countries's economies. That is why the volatility of crude oil prices
is closely related to the exchange rate, especially for the US dollar because the US is
the world's largest crude oil importer.

Changes in the dollar index compared to changes in crude oil prices (data from
www.briefing.com)

Fuel is the main product that produced from crude oil, and it is also one of the most
important input factors of many economic sectors. When the price of gasoline and other
fuels increases, people and businesses tend to limit the comsumption goods and services.
This slows down the economic growth because the revenue of manufacturing enterprises
decreases, leading to fewer jobs... In addition, the increase in fuel prices also increases
the prices of goods and services.The reason is it increases the cost of shipping and
production. Enterprises are forced to increase the selling price of goods and this will lead
to a decrease in shopping demand of the people.

The increase in crude oil prices affects all economies, especially the US. When the price
of oil increases, US has to pay more to import oil and then the value of the dollar falls
against the EUR and vice versa.

In early 2020, the world faced a major pandemic. The impact of the Covid-19 epidemic
has almost "frozen" the world economies, especially in the US, with political instability,
armed conflicts in the Middle East, causing the crude oil prices the first time went
"unimaginable" falls.

After reaching peak in January 2020, crude oil prices started to fall and hit the lowest
point in April 2020, crude oil prices have fallen - $ 2.5/barrel. This was also the time
when the US was deep in chaos caused by covid 19. Opposite to crude oil price
movements, the USD/VND exchange rate surged in April and peaked after 3 years (VND
23,615).