See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.

net/publication/340626767

Construction of Compartmental Models for COVID-19 with Quarantine,

Lockdown and Vaccine Interventions

Preprint  in  SSRN Electronic Journal · April 2020

DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3574020

CITATIONS READS

2 1,342

3 authors, including:

Gabriel Obed Fosu Justice Kwame Appati

Presbyterian University College University of Ghana
39 PUBLICATIONS   47 CITATIONS    15 PUBLICATIONS   38 CITATIONS   

SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE

Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects:

Mathematical Epidemiology View project

Original Research Article View project

All content following this page was uploaded by Gabriel Obed Fosu on 17 April 2020.

The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.

 Construction of Compartmental Models for COVID-19
with Quarantine, Lockdown and Vaccine Interventions
Gabriel O. Fosu1∗, Joseph M. Opong1†, Justice K. Appati2‡
1
Department of Mathematics, Presbyterian University College, Ghana
2
Department of Computer Science, University of Ghana

April 12, 2020

Abstract: The COVID-19 disease caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
has been declared as a pandemic. To curb the spread of the virus, some preventive and control measures
were outlined by the World Health Organization. The implementation of these measures depends on
the severity of the infection and the countries’ prowess in battling the virus. On this premise, several
compartmental models are formulated to investigate the dynamics of the coronavirus disease across the
globe by taking into account some of these control measures. These models explain the transmissibility
of the virus by considering quarantine, lockdowns, and vaccinations. The equations presented include
the customary SIR and SEIR models. Moreover, these baseline equations are extended to account
for quarantine, isolation, partial and total lockdowns, and vaccination programs. A flow diagram is
presented in each case to elucidate the transmission phases of the coronavirus disease. Again, the SIR
model is simulated to practically explore the dynamics of coronavirus in Ghana based on available
data up until 9th April 2020. Instances when the basic reproductive number does not exceed one, the
models predict that the coronavirus disease will be wiped-out in Ghana within the next two to four months.

Keywords: Coronavirus, SIR, SEIR, Quarantine, Vaccinations, Lockdowns.

1 Introduction
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a newly recognized disease that accelerates spread in
Wuhan the capital city of Hubei province. In January of 2020, the pathogen was identified as a novel
-coronavirus by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from the throat swab
sample of a patient. The International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses officially named the pathogen
as the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) [1]. Coronaviruses are pathogens
∗
gabriel.obed@presbyuniversity.edu.gh
†
joeopong@presbyuniversity.edu.gh
‡
justicekwameappati@gmail.com

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3574020

that can infect the respiratory, gastrointestinal, hepatic and central nervous systems of humans, livestock,
some rodents, and other wild animals and can be transmitted from animals to humans. The infection and
transmission is similar to the outbreaks of SARS in 2002 and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)
in 2012 [2]. It is a member of the coronavirus family, but it is distinct from all previously known strains
of coronavirus. Prior to the recent onset of this pandemic, nothing at all was known of the SARS-CoV-2
virus, and there were no established tests, documented epidemiology, vaccines, or anti-viral medications.
In December 2019, a kind of pneumonia with unknown cause started in Wuhan, China. When RNA was
extracted and sequenced from these patients in the samples of bronchoalveolar-lavage fluid by scientists,
it was found that it is a novel beta coronavirus, named SARS-CoV-2 and it has a large identity with a
bat SARS-like CoV [3]. In March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak of
the new coronavirus a global pandemic. The pathogen of COVID-19, severe acute respiratory syndrome
coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is highly transmitted even by asymptomatic infected subjects and thus very
difficult to be contained. Moreover, epidemiological evidence suggests that the disease can be transmitted
through the respiratory tract and droplets even through stool. At the earlier stages, the mechanism of
human to human transmission of this virus was unclear until some further date. The COVID-19 pandemic
is not only rapidly spreading worldwide but its spread is exponentially accelerating [4]. The problems
posed by the COVID-19 pandemic are compounded by the fact that the SARS-CoV-2 virus is a novel
virus.
As of April 5, 2020, the total number of patients has raised to 1214913 global and 65626 were reported
dead with 253670 recoveries. The United States, Spain, and Italy had 311637, 130759 and 124632 as total
cases respectively. Italy had a total of 15362 deaths being the highest number of deaths recorded. China,
where the disease started had 81669 total cases with 3329 death.
The patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 mainly showed fever, cough and other pneumonia symptoms,
although some of them were asymptomatic [3]. The development and trials of drugs and vaccinations
require months or even years to be completed and yet cannot be readily applied in all countries. Strategies
or interventions applied are already-established means of interventions to help those severely ill COVID-
19 patients by reducing the risk of dying. Large-scale epidemiological data have demonstrated that
the mortality rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection is significantly higher for patients with higher ages and/or
with comorbid chronic illnesses such as cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, chronic respiratory diseases,
hypertension, and cancer. However, these basic chronic illnesses are mortality risk factors for many other
pathogen infections commonly exist in old people and are hardly curable. However, this hinders the
investigation of specific mortality risk factors for COVID-19 patients and makes it difficult to justify the
rationale and fairness of allocating public medical resources for condition-specific interventions [5].
Some of the measures that have been identified to curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2 include lockdowns,
isolation, and quarantine. The paper seeks to formulate models to explain the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2
by accounting for these control measures. The research presents different models that investigate the
transition of the coronavirus disease depending on some eradication programs and on the severity of the
infection. Though vaccination program for coronavirus is yet to be rolled out, some models are formulated
in this research to account for vaccinations. In the past, models of sought were developed to understand
the dynamics of Ebola [6, 7], promiscuity [8–10], and MERS-CoV [11, 12].
The compartmental diagram of these models and their corresponding equations are presented in the

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3574020

next section.

2 The Compartmental Models

In this section, some mathematical equations that investigate and control the spread of the coronavirus
disease are presented. These models are categorized under specific headings. Each set of models is defined
by some set of assumptions. The models presented here include the SIR, SEIR, and the extension of these
two models to incorporate quarantine, lockdowns, and vaccinations.

2.1 SIR Models

In this derivation, we assume that there are three main compartments for the coronavirus disease; the
susceptible, infected, and the removed compartments. The susceptible class is consists of people who
do not have the coronavirus disease. The infected class comprises individuals who have the virus, while
individuals who recover or die from the SARS-CoV-2 move to the removed compartment.
A person may be infected with the virus when a susceptible person makes contact with an infectious
person/object. In this formulation, β is used to represent the rate of infection, while α1 is used to denote
the rate of outflow into the removed compartment. The birth and natural death rate (vital demographic
statistics) are represented by µ and γ respectively. Natural deaths exclude death resulting from the
coronavirus disease. The compartmental diagram in Figure I is used to explain this conceptualization.

µ γ

γ β α1 γ
S I R

Figure I: A compartmental diagram for an SIR case with death and recovered in the same compartment

The model equations deduced from Figure I are displayed by equation (1).

S 0 (t) = µN − βSI − γS
I 0 (t) = βSI − (γ + α1 )I (1)
0
R (t) = α1 I − γR

N is the total populations size such that N = S 0 (t) + I 0 (t) + R0 (t). βSI is the bi-linear incidence term.
It indicates a homogeneous mix of the susceptible and the infected population.
Figure II illustrates the case, where the model specifically account for death as a result of the
coronavirus death. υ is the death rate of the coronavirus disease. This lead to a modification of I 0 (t)
equation in (1) as:
I 0 (t) = βSI − (γ + α1 + υ)I (2)

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3574020

 µ γ

γ β α1 γ
S I R

Figure II: A compartmental diagram for an SIR case with death and recovered in the different
compartment

With regards to the coronavirus disease, birth and natural death have been observed to be minimal
during this pandemic period. Hence, the effect of birth and natural death could be assumed to offset
each other. This simplifies the SIR model (1). Here, the transition rate from the S compartment to the I
compartment is βI/N , where I/N is the probability that the virus will be transmitted from an infected
person to a susceptible individual if there is a contact. Incorporating these assumptions, the SIR model
(1) reduces to:

I
S 0 (t) = −βS
N
I (3)
I 0 (t) = βS − α1 I
N
R0 (t) = α1 I

An alternative SIR equation that describes the spread of COVID-19 is the model with varying time-
dependent parameters. Because of the continual control measures, the outflow rates of this compartmental
model keeps changing with respect to time. For example, the rate of infection prior to lockdowns, closure
of borders, and restrictions on public gathering, will differ after such measures have been implemented.
Moreover, the rate of recovery when a country is not endowed with adequate ventilators, medicine, and
health care workers may differ from the rate of recovery when the same country has enough of such to
support its SARS-CoV-2 patients. With these instances, the outflow parameters of the SIR model (3) is
modified to incorporate the time-varying transmissions. The modified time-varying equation is given as:

I
S 0 (t) = −β(t)S
N
I (4)
I 0 (t) = β(t)S − α(t)I
N
R0 (t) = α(t)I

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3574020

where β(t) is the time-varying transmission rate, and α(t) is the time-varying recovery rate.
In all ensuing formulations, the parameters are not time-dependent, however, the models could be
modified to account for time-varying rates. The vital demographic statistics are incorporated into the
models, and the removed R compartment is not dichotomized into recovered and coronavirus deaths.
Nonetheless, these axioms could be relaxed.

2.2 SEIR Models

The SEIR models in this section may have either four or five compartments depending on the definition
of the infected class. When the infected class is subdivided into asymptomatic and symptomatic classes,
then there are five compartments, and four compartments otherwise. The symptomatic class includes all
persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 with noticeable symptoms of the disease. However, if the infected
person does not show any symptoms of COVID-19, then it is classified as asymptomatic. In the absence
of such categorization, the SEIR model has four compartments.
Let commence with the four compartmental SEIR model. The compartments are susceptible, exposed,
infected, and removed. The definitions for susceptible, infected, and removed remains the same as the
SIR case (1). Nonetheless, there is a transient compartment called the exposed compartment (E) to
model contacts among infected and susceptible persons. All persons that come into contact with the
virus are classified as exposed. These people may either be infected or remain susceptible to the virus.
An exposed person moves back to the susceptible compartment once the test result is negative. The
parameters ξ, β1 , , and α1 are used to represent transitions among these compartments. ξ denotes the
rate of inflow into S from E, β1 denotes outflow rate from S to E,  denote outflow from E to I, and α1
represent outflow rate from I to R. Similarly, µ and γ are used to represent birth and death rates. The
four compartmental SEIR diagram is shown in Figure III.

µ γ γ

γ β1  α1 γ
S E I R
ξ

Figure III: A compartmental diagram for an SEIR case

The corresponding equations obtained from Figure III are:

S 0 (t) = µN − β1 SI − γS + ξE
E 0 (t) = β1 SI − (γ +  + ξ)E
(5)
I 0 (t) = E − (γ + α1 )I
R0 (t) = α1 I − γR

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3574020

 Figure IV illustrates the five compartmental SEIR model. This is sometimes captioned as SEIs Ia R
model. The symptomatic and asymptomatic classes are respectively defined by the variables Is and Ia .
The Ia population shows no symptoms of the disease, yet these individuals do transmit the virus. The
symptomatic population Is are infected patients showing symptoms of the SARS-CoV-2 disease. φ denotes
the rate of outflow from the asymptomatic compartment to the symptomatic compartment. It accounts
for the number of asymptomatic patients that will show symptoms of the virus before existing to the
removed compartment. α3 is the rate of recovery of asymptomatic patients without showing symptoms
of the virus. The immune system fighting the virus unknowingly are classified under this category.

γ
Is
µ γ α4
κ
γ β1 γ
S E φ R
ξ
(1 − κ) α3
Ia
γ

Figure IV: A compartmental diagram for an SEIR model with asymptomatic and symptomatic classes

For Figure IV, the proportion of exposed persons that enters the symptomatic compartment is denoted
by κ, while (1 − κ) is the remaining portion that enters the asymptomatic compartment. Infectivity
is reduced by the factor τ . The model equations obtained from the SEIs Ia R diagram IV is given by
equation (6). The removal rate for asymptomatic and symptomatic patients are α3 and α4 respectively.

S 0 (t) = µN − β1 S(Is + τ Ia ) − γS + ξE
E 0 (t) = β1 S(Is + τ Ia ) − (γ +  + ξ)E
Is0 (t) = kE + φIa − (γ + α4 )Is (6)
Ia0 (t) = (1 − k)E − [γ + α3 + φ]Ia
0
R (t) = α4 Is + α3 Ia − γR

2.3 SIR Model with Quarantine

This SIR model with quarantine has four compartments. Including a new compartment Q, there are
the usual S, I, and R compartments. It is assumed that some infected persons are quarantined to curb
the spread of the coronavirus disease. This is accounted by the parameter θ1 . They are quarantined
to receive treatment. The Q compartment consists of individuals that are either on self or enforced
quarantine. Isolated persons are assumed to be part of this compartment. Quarantining can either take
place in homes or hospitals as is the case for the coronavirus disease. Some persons may move into the
removed compartment without necessarily being quarantined. Figure V is the flow chart for this model.

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3574020

 µ γ

γ β α1 γ
S I R

α2
θ1

γ
Q

Figure V: A compartmental diagram of an SIR with Quarantine

The removal rate after being quarantined is α2 . The model equations deduced from Figure V are:

S 0 (t) = µN − βSI − γS
I 0 (t) = βSI − [γ + θ1 + α1 ]I
(7)
Q0 (t) = θ1 I − (γ + α2 )Q
R0 (t) = α1 I + α2 Q − γR

2.4 SEIR Model with Quarantine

This section extends the four compartmental SEIR model illustrated with Figure III. It is assumed that
people are quarantined based on tracer analysis. Both exposed and infected persons may be quarantined.
In this derivation, persons under lockdowns who are found to have the virus are also classified as
quarantined, as it was in some countries. From Figure VI, the rate of outflow from the exposed to
the quarantined compartment is denoted by θ2 . Those exposed persons that could not be traced to be
quarantined move to the infected compartment. Figure VI is the pictorial representation of this concept.
The model equations for the SEIR with quarantine is given by (8):
S 0 (t) = µN − β1 SI − γS + ξE
E 0 (t) = β1 SI − [γ + θ2 +  + ξ)]E
I 0 (t) = E − [γ + θ1 + α1 ]I (8)
0
Q (t) = θ1 I + θ2 E − (γ + α2 )Q
R0 (t) = α1 I + α2 Q − γR

2.5 SIR and SEIR Models with Quarantine and Lockdowns

These models explore and explain SARS-CoV-2 cases in countries implementing partial or total lockdowns.
The lockdown compartment (L) contains only susceptible persons who have been restricted movement to

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3574020

 µ γ γ

γ β1  α1 γ
S E I R
ξ
θ1
θ2 α2
γ
Q

Figure VI: A compartmental diagram for an SEIR model with Quarantine

control the spread of the virus. Such persons become prone to the infection once they move from their
restricted zones (lockdown) to the susceptible compartment. Persons under lockdowns who are found
to have the virus are classified as quarantined. Figure VII is a flow chart that further explains this
conceptualization. η and δ are the parameters accounting for movement to-and-fro the susceptible and
lockdown compartments.

µ γ

γ β α1 γ
S I R

α2
δ η θ1

γ γ
L Q

Figure VII: A compartmental diagram of an SIR with Quarantine and Lockdowns

The differential equations (9) are deduced from Figure VII.

S 0 (t) = µN − βSI − (γ + η)S + δL

L0 (t) = ηS − (γ + δ)L
I 0 (t) = βSI − [γ + θ1 + α1 ]I (9)
0
Q (t) = θ1 I − (γ + α2 )Q
R0 (t) = α1 I + α2 Q − γR

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3574020

 The extension of the above (Figure VII and Equation (9)) to the SEIR domain will result to the
following compartmental diagram (Figure VIII) and differential equations (10).

µ γ γ

γ β1  α1 γ
S E I R
ξ

δ η θ1
θ2 α2
γ γ
L Q

Figure VIII: A compartmental diagram for an SEIR model with Quarantine and Lockdowns

S 0 (t) = µN − β1 SI − (γ + η)S + δL + ξE
L0 (t) = ηS − (γ + δ)L
E 0 (t) = β1 SI − [γ + θ2 +  + ξ]E
(10)
I 0 (t) = E − [γ + θ1 + α1 ]I
Q0 (t) = θ1 I + θ2 E − (γ + α2 )Q
R0 (t) = α1 I + α2 Q − γR

2.6 SIR and SEIR Models with Quarantine and Vaccinations

Since the outbreak, pharmaceutical firms continue to search for the most appropriate medicine and vaccine.
Assuming a vaccination program is rolled for the coronavirus pandemic, then models for the coronavirus
disease will differ from the earlier equations presented in this paper.
In this section, a new compartment for vaccinated persons (V ) is introduced. It is assumed that
people are vaccinated to attain permanent immunity. The flow chart IX is graphically used to explain
this scenario. The frequency of movement from susceptible class to the vaccinated compartment is denoted
by ω1 . A comprehensive summary of all parameters is detailed in Table I.
The SIR equations with quarantine and vaccinations are expressed as (11).
S 0 (t) = µN − βSI − (γ + ω1 )S
V 0 (t) = ω1 S − γV
I 0 (t) = βSI − [γ + θ1 + α1 ]I (11)
0
Q (t) = θ1 I − (γ + α2 )Q
R0 (t) = α1 I − γR + α2 Q

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3574020

 µ γ γ

γ β1  α1 γ
S E I R
ξ
α2
ω1 θ1
θ2
γ γ
V Q

Figure IX: A compartmental diagram for an SEIR model with Quarantine and Vaccinations

In addition, the SEIR model with quarantine and vaccinations are given by equations (12).

S 0 (t) = µN − β1 SI − (γ + ω1 )S + ξE
V 0 (t) = ω1 S − γV
E 0 (t) = β1 SI − [γ + θ2 +  + ξ]E
(12)
I 0 (t) = E − [γ + θ1 − α1 ]
Q0 (t) = θ1 I + θ2 E − (γ + α2 )Q
R0 (t) = α1 I − γR + α2 Q

The epidemiological models presented here could all be used to analyze the spread and control of the
novel coronavirus disease. The choice may depend on the eradication strategies, control measures, and
the availability of data. In the next section, the SIR model (3) is adapted to explain the dynamics of
the coronavirus disease in Ghana. The choice of this model is attributed to the none availability of data.
However, countries’ with sufficient data could adapt any of these models to instigate the trends of the
coronavirus disease.

10

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3574020

 Table I: Summary Definition of Parameters

Parameters Definition
µ Birth rate
γ Natural death rate
υ The death rate of coronavirus disease
α1 The rate of outflow from infections to removed compartment
α2 The rate of outflow from quarantined to removed compartment
α3 The rate of recovery of asymptomatic patients
α4 The rate of recovery of symptomatic patients
α(t) Time-varying recovery rate
 Incubation/latency rate
β The rate of outflow from susceptible to infected compartment
β1 The rate of outflow from susceptible to exposed compartment
β(t) Time-varying transmission rate
τ Infectivity factor
ξ The rate of inflow into susceptible from the exposed compartment
κ The proportion of outflow from exposed to symptomatic compartment
φ The rate of outflow from asymptomatic to symptomatic compartment
θ1 The rate of outflow from infected to quarantine compartment
θ2 The rate of outflow from exposed to quarantine compartment
η The rate of inflow to lockdown from the susceptible compartment
δ The rate of outflow from lockdown to the susceptible compartment
ω1 The proportion of the susceptible class that have received vaccination

3 Simulation Results
The SIR model (3) is used to explain the dynamics of COVID-19 in Ghana. The steady-state formulation
of equation (3) is

I
−βS =0
N
I (13)
βS − α1 I = 0
N
α1 I = 0

that is
S 0 (t) = I 0 (t) = R0 (t) = 0 (14)
The endemic equilibrium is obtained by solving equation (13). These steady-state values are
substituted into the Jacobian matrix to mathematical determine the state of the virus. Hither, the
state of the virus is determined graphically using MATLAB simulations.

11

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3574020

 Moreover, the basic reproductive number R0 could also aid to compute the expected number of
coronavirus cases in Ghana. The basic reproductive number for this SIR model is given by the formula
β
R0 = (15)
α1
The value of R0 could inform appropriate stakeholders if the coronavirus could be contained in Ghana.
The disease will die out if R0 is less than one. In contrast, it might be very difficult to control the
disease if R0 is greater than one. Some plots are presented to illustrate both endemic state (R0 > 1), and
disease-free state (R0 < 1) of SARS-CoV-2.
Specifically, the simulation is based on SARS-CoV-2 cases in Ghana as of 9th April 2020. The
details are: I(t) = 313, and R(t) = 34. Given a projected population N = 31, 072, 740, the susceptible
population is derived. To simplify the computations, these values (S, I, R) are divided by N to obtain
fractional units.
The recovery α1 is deduced from the time length of infection T , with α1 = 1/T . For coronavirus, it has
been established that the infections period is between 5.8 to 14 days [2, 3]. Hence the following recovery
values α1 equal 0.0714, 0.0948, and 0.1724 are used for the computations. The rate 0.0948 corresponds
to 10.5 days, that is the average of 5.8 days and 14 days.
In addition, the infection rate is varied because of the precarious nature of the virus. The values are
perturbed to better understand the if transitions of the coronavirus disease in Ghana.

β = 0.11 β = 0.20 β = 0.40

Figure X: The population profiles when the recovery rate is 0.0714

The simulations (Figures X-XII) explains how the susceptible, infected, and removed populations drift
over time. A total of 365 days is chosen for the simulation. The reference or zeroth day is 9th April 2020.
Since fractional values are used the profiles of these plots along the x-axis are asymptomatic to the x−axis.
They are not zeros as projected by the plots.
From Figures X to XII the infection rate is increased from 0.11 to 0.40 to observe the dynamics of
the coronavirus. Particularly, for Figure X, it is observed that the disease is likely to affect half of the
population when β = 0.4. In this case, either the virus or the population will be annihilated in 90 days.
A serious intervention may annihilate the virus. On the other hand, the increasing number of deaths as
a result of infections may also annihilate the population.

12

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3574020

 β = 0.11 β = 0.20 β = 0.40
Figure XI: The population profiles when the recovery rate is 0.0948

β = 0.11 β = 0.20 β = 0.40

Figure XII: The population profiles when the recovery rate is 0.1724

Comparing this result to β = 0.11 and β = 0.20 on this same figure X, fewer people may be infected
but may take quite some time for the disease to be wiped out. This is further explored in Figure XIII.
These plots attain flatter tops as the rate of infection is reduced.
Graphically, the population dynamics of Figures X to XII are quite similar, with the exception that
the infectious period is varied among 5.8 days, 10.5 days, and 14 days. From Figures XI and XII, the
disease dies out from the population when β = 0.11. This lower transmission rate could be attributed
to effective measures by the government in eradicating the virus. In such case, it may take the country
a maximum of 60 days for all infected persons to move into the removed compartment. This is clarified
using Figure XIV. Observably, the graphs of the infected population become asymptotic to the x-axis
after the 60th day. This indicates that the virus would be eliminated from the population in the next few
months. This will be realized when the infection rate falls below 0.04, while the recovery rate is 0.0948.

13

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3574020

 Figure XIII: The rate of decay of the infected population for cases of R0 > 1

Figure XIV: The rate of decay of the infected population for cases of R0 < 1

4 Conclusion
In this paper, some mathematical models were formulated to give insight into the spread and eradication of
the novel coronavirus disease. These models characterize the spread of the coronavirus disease across the
globe depending on some eradication and control measures. Measures such as quarantining, lockdowns,
and vaccinations were incorporated into the classical SIR and SEIR compartmental models. Except for the
classical SIR model, the vital demographic quantities were included in all formulations. Notwithstanding
that a thorough analysis of these models is reserved as future work. The dynamics of the coronavirus
cases in Ghana was evinced using the SIR model. The SIR model predicted that in an endemic state
it will take a maximum of 120 days for the entire population to move into the removed compartment.
However, in the disease-free state, it will take approximately 50 to 80 days for Ghana to totally wipe-out
the coronavirus disease.

14

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3574020

 References
[1] L. Wang, Ansheng Zou, Jing Wang, Qi Su, Cijun Luo, Xiaoli Sun, Lei Lin, Juanni Hu, Bin Huang,
Fei Zhou, Wei Li, Xiaomei Gong, Huiming Liu, Zhiqiang Zou, Jian Ni, Jun Liu, Ruilan Wang,
Zhenguo Liu, and Caicun Zhou. Matrix analysis of clinical characteristics and dynamic observation of
immunological features in 90 cases of COVID-19. SSRN, 2020. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3556688.
[2] Shuo Jiang, Qiuyue Li, Chaoqun Li, Xiaomeng He, Tao Wang, Hua Hi, Christopher Corpe,
Xiaoyan Zhang, Jianqing Xu, and Jin Wang. Mathematical models for devising the optimal
SARS-CoV-2 eradication in China, South Korea, Iran, and Italy. SSRN, 2020. Available at
https://ssrn.com/abstract=3559541.
[3] Tian-Mu Chen, Jia Rui, Qiu-Peng Wang, Ze-Yu Zhao, Jing-An Cui, and Ling Yin. A mathematical
model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus. Infectious Diseases of
Poverty, 2020.
[4] Gabriel Obed Fosu and Gloria Edunyah. Flattening the exponential growth curve of COVID-
19 in Ghana and other developing countries; divine intervention is a necessity. SSRN, 2020.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3565147.
[5] Zhen Li, Ming Wu, Jiwei Yao, Jie Guo, Xiang Liao, Siji Song, Jiali Li, Guangjie Duan, Yuanxiu Zhou,
Xiaojun Wu, Zhansong Zhou, Taojiao Wang, Ming Hu, Xianxiang Chen, Yu Fu, Chong Lei, Hailong
Dong, Chuou Xu, Yahua Hu, Min Han, Yi Zhou, Hongbo Jia, Xiaowei Chen, and Junan Yan. Caution
on kidney dysfunctions of COVID-19 patients. SSRN, 2020. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3559601.
[6] Ellina V Grigorieva and Evgenii N Khailov. Optimal intervention strategies for a SEIR control model
of Ebola epidemics. Mathematics, 3(4):961–983, 2015.
[7] Amira Rachah and Delfim F M Torres. Predicting and controlling the Ebola infection. Mathematical
Methods in the Applied Sciences, 40(17):6155–6164, 2017.
[8] W Obeng-Denteh, B. A. Obeng, and G. O. Fosu. On modelling of promiscuous lifestyle; An SIR
dynamics. Journal of Advances in Mathematics and Computer Science, pages 475–480, 2015.
[9] B. A. Obeng, G. O. Fosu, and E. Akweittey. A mathematical model on the dynamics of student-
lecturer-sex on campuses. Advances in Research, 2016.
[10] Gabriel Obed Fosu, Emmanuel Akweittey, and Evans K. Mensah. Modeling sexual activities among
students; a global analysis. International Journal of Mathematics & Computation, 2019.
[11] Gerardo Chowell, Seth Blumberg, Lone Simonsen, Mark A Miller, and Cecile Viboud. Synthesizing
data and models for the spread of MERS-CoV, 2013: key role of index cases and hospital transmission.
Epidemics, 9:40–51, 2014.
[12] Muhammad Manaqib. Mathematical model for MERS-COV disease transmission with medical mask
usage and vaccination. Indonesian Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics, 1(2), 2019.

15

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3574020

View publication stats