Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100192

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Environmental Challenges
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/envc

Assessing and predicting land use/land cover, land surface temperature

and urban thermal field variance index using Landsat imagery for Dhaka
Metropolitan area
Abdullah-Al- Faisal a,b,∗, Abdulla - Al Kafy a,c, Abdullah Al Rakib a, Kaniz Shaleha Akter a,
Dewan Md. Amir Jahir a, Md. Soumik Sikdar d, Tahera Jahan Ashrafi d, Saumik Mallik e,
Md. Mijanur Rahman f
a Department of Urban & Regional Planning, Rajshahi University of Engineering & Technology (RUET), Rajshahi, 6204, Bangladesh
b GIS Centre, Operational Centre Amsterdam (OCA), Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), Cox’s Bazar, 4750, Bangladesh
c
ICLEI South Asia, Rajshahi City Corporation, Rajshahi, 6203, Bangladesh
d
Department of Urban & Regional Planning, Chittagong University of Engineering and Technology, Chattogram, 4349, Bangladesh
e
Department of Civil Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology (BUET), Dhaka, Bangladesh
f
Department of Geography & Environment, Jagannath University, Dhaka, Bangladesh

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Keywords: Climate change is occurring because of an increase in greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and
Land surface temperature others, which act as a partial blanket for the planet and store solar energy radiation, resulting an increase in
Urban thermal field variance index land surface temperature (LST). Cities that are already suffering from the urban heat island (UHI) effect , which
Support vector machine
will withstand the worst of these more extreme heat events. The extent of the impermeable layer and changes
Cellular automata
in LST are inextricably linked to the severity and commencement of UHI events, which can be measured using
Artificial neural network
the urban thermal field variance index (UTFVI). Land use/Land cover (LULC) change was assessed using support
vector machine (SVM) supervised classification, seasonal (summer and winter) LST, and UTFVI variations from
Landsat 4–5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI satellite images for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020. Furthermore, in Dhaka,
Bangladesh, the cellular automata-based artificial neural network (CA-ANN) algorithm was utilized to forecast
LULC, seasonal LST and UTFVI for 2030. From 2000 to 2020, the results demonstrated a large net change in
urban areas (+20.52%), whereas vegetation, bare land, and water bodies were all decreased with net changes of
-5.72%, -11.19%, and -3.6%, respectively. According to projected LSTs, the net increase in summer and winter
temperatures from 2020 to 2030 will be 13% and 20%, respectively, in the highest temperature group (greater
than 35 °C). Furthermore, the projected UTFVI showed that in 2030, roughly 72% (up from 58% in 2020) and 69%
(up from 47 percent% in 2020) of total area will be covered by stronger and strongest UTFVI zones. Correlation
analysis was statistically significant (p value < 0.05), and the relationship between LST and NDBI was strong and
positive, but strongly negative with NDVI. The accuracy examination of all the maps revealed a high degree of
estimating, with kappa values of more than 80%. By giving significant insights on urban settings and promoting
city competency, the study will broaden the perspectives of city planners and policymakers.

1. Introduction logical degradation varies by location, metropolitan environments are

Climate is one of the most significant environmental variables that
affecting our habitats and daily lives (Hunt et al., 2017). Because of
land use/land cover (LULC) involvement in diminishing biodiversity
and creation of the urban heat island (UHI) effect, changes in urban
LULC intensify the climate change (Kafy et al., 2020c). Although eco-
undoubtedly one of the most key contributors due to high human den-
sity, economic activity, metal use, and energy consumption. Over the
next three decades, metropolitan regions are predicted to accommodate
more than 70% of the population of the world (Al Rakib et al., 2020b,
2020c; Kafy et al., 2019; World Water Council, 2017). As per the In-
tergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), average global land

∗
Corresponding author: GIS Centre, Operational Centre Amsterdam (OCA), Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), Cox’s Bazar-4750, Bangladesh. Website:
https://sites.google.com/localpathways.org/abdullah-al-faisal; ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8786-8536
E-mail addresses: abdullah-al-faisal@localpathways.org (A.-A.-. Faisal), abdulla-al.kafy@localpathways.org (Abdulla - Al Kafy), abdullahalrakib310@gmail.com
(A. Al Rakib), kanizkeya294@gmail.com (K.S. Akter), amirjahir0279@gmail.com (D.Md.A. Jahir).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2021.100192
Received 30 April 2021; Received in revised form 22 June 2021; Accepted 22 June 2021
2667-0100/© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
A.-A.-. Faisal, Abdulla - Al Kafy, A. Al Rakib et al.
Fig. 1. Location of the study area (a) Bangladesh, (b) Dhaka District and (c) DMA Boundary.
surface temperature (LST) would rise by 1.4–5.8 °C by 2100, and at-
mospheric carbon dioxide levels would double from pre-industrial lev-
els (Allen et al., 2018; Singh et al., 2017). With the establishment of
specialized facilities, urbanization and rapid industrialization are cre-
ating extensive LULC changes (Mundhe et al., 2014) which seems to
be the major source of environmental degradation, transformations in
urban hydrology, increased ambient temperatures, and climate change.
Cities cover only 2% of the earth’s surface, but they absorb around 75%
of all energy and generate 75% of all garbage (Chandert, 2018). Na-
tional and state ecology, surface temperature, humidity, climate change,
and global warming are all affected by LULC changes. Urban expansion
has a significant negative impact on land, water, surface temperature,
ecology, and environment (Al Rakib et al., 2020a; Chakroborty et al.,
2020). The overall effects of urbanization are a rise in surface tempera-
ture and decrease in precipitation, evaporation rate, and hydrology area
(McGrane, 2016).
Because of the uncontrolled urbanization and rising energy demand,
UHI has become the most serious concern in the previous 50 years
(Hasnat et al., 2019). UHI has a significant effect on the quality of life
of the world’s increasing urban population (Singh et al., 2017). UHI
is the result of replacement of natural vegetation with buildings and
roads, the heat generated from motor vehicles, various manufacturing
factories, air conditioners, aerosols, gas stations, air generated by dif-
2
Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100192
ferent refrigerants (Gunawardena et al., 2017). The reduction in airflow
from high-rise structures and densely populated areas exacerbates the
heat island effect. The UHI, which is a direct indicator of environmen-
tal deterioration, is one of the most serious repercussions (Dewan et al.,
2021a).
The UHI is a well-known evidence of significant anthropogenic cli-
mate change on the planet. It is a characteristic that shows higher tem-
perature in urban areas when compared to similarly elevated non-urban
locations. As with the rapid increase of urban development, there are
no defined limits between urban and rural areas, yet there is a temper-
ature difference between the core town and the city and its surround-
ings. It is typically the lengthiest urban life-threatening event around the
world (Adeline Ngie, Abutaleb, Ahmed, Darwish, and Ahmed, 2014).
The amplitude of UHI will also be affected by the shape of the city
(Li et al., 2018). The urban design geometry of a small roadway and
towering buildings reduces wind speed and increases reflective sur-
faces, which becomes a key influence in UHI (Lan and Zhan, 2017).
Increases in short wave radiation absorption, sensible heat storage, an-
thropogenic heat generation and decreases in long wave radiation loss,
evapotranspiration rate, intensive heat loss is followed by urban warm-
ing (Shahmohamadi et al., 2019).
Plenty of global research on the effects of heat islands on geo-
graphic distribution, risk, and urban vulnerability, based on remote
A.-A.-. Faisal, Abdulla - Al Kafy, A. Al Rakib et al. Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100192

Table 1
Date available and specification.

Satellite Data Date of acquisition Sensor Band No. Spectral range (Wavelength 𝜇m) Spatial resolution, m

Landsat 5 Summer: Thematic Mapper (TM) 1 0.45–0.52 30

20 February 2000
& 2 0.52–0.60 30
04 April 2010 3 0.63–0.69 30
4 0.76–0.90 30
Winter:
02 November 2000 & 14 November 2010 5 1.55–1.75 30
6 10.40–12.50 120 resampled to 30
7 2.08–2.35 30
Landsat 8 Summer Operational Land Imager (OLI) 1 0.43–0.45 30
15 April 2020 2 0.45–0.51 30
3 0.64–0.67 30
4 0.53–0.59 30
5 0.85–0.88 30
6 1.57–1.65 30
Winter 7 2.11–2.29 30
09 November 2020 8 1.36–1.38 15
9 0.50–0.68 30
TRIS 1 10 10.60–11.19 100 resampled to 30
TRIS 2 11 11.50–12.51 100 resampled to 30

Table 2
LULC classification scheme and class descriptions.

LULC Class Description Training Pixels Testing Pixels

Water Bodies River, permanent open water, lakes, ponds and reservoirs 588 352
Urban Area Residential, commercial and services, industrial, transportation, roads, mixed urban, and other urban 304 117
Vegetation Agricultural area, crop fields, fallow lands and vegetable lands, deciduous forest, mixed forest lands, 637 381
palms, conifer, scrub and others
Bare Land Exposed soils, landfill sites, and areas of active excavation 455 272

sensing (RS) and earth surface temperature data, has recently been pub-
lished (Kafy et al., 2020c; Naim and Kafy, 2021; Zhou et al., 2019).
The UHI cases have recently been found to cause major health-related
andecological difficulties in urbanized cities through deforestation and
other anthropological activities. Several researchers recently have stud-
ied the ecological impact of growth and land cover changes in the cities
of Bangladesh and concluded that land cover changes have a signifi-
cant adverse effect on the surface temperature (Al Rakib et al., 2020a;
Dey et al., 2021; Hassan and Nazem, 2016; Kafy et al., 2021c, 2021b;
Naim and Kafy, 2021).
Since the second half of the twentieth century, the global urban-
ization process has been hastened, and the rate of urban growth has
been faster in developing countries than in industrialized countries
(Preston, 1979). Compared to planned cities, traditional municipalities
may lack in optimizing land allocation, resulting in urban sprawl. There
are many planned cities worldwide, but most cities in Bangladesh are
unorganized and uncontrolled, with limited district municipalities and
dense populations. Like other emerging countries, Bangladesh is facing
unprecedented population growth (Swapan et al., 2017) and this rapid
growth of urban population has a negative impact on LULC change.
Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, has been bearing the burden of the
effects of rapid population growth. Being one of the world’s most un-
planned and chaotic cities, Dhaka has begun to lose its metropolitan
image and competitiveness due to a lack of ordered high structures,
comprehensive infrastructure, and unorderly streets. One of its most es-
sential and complex techniques to mitigate the UHI consequences is to
develop a coherent LULC management plan that restricts unplanned ur-
ban expansion and increases green cover (Jain et al., 2019).
LULC parameters such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
(NDVI) are weaker forecaster of LST. In contrast, Normalized Differ-
ence Built-up Index (NDBI) and Normalized Difference Bare soil Index
(NDBSI), are comparatively more substantial ones (Guha et al., 2020;
Al Rakib et al., 2020a; Ullah et al., 2019). Prospects of different vegeta-
tion and anti-vegetation variables to predict LST have confirmed that the
Urban Index (UI) became the strongest predictor of LST. Hypothesis ori-
ented indicators cannot match past trends, and for this reason, Artificial
Neural Network (ANN) is the best-fitted model to choose for LST simu-
lation (Adhikari K. and R.K., 2013; Kattsov et al., 2013; Tarka, 2018).
The first ANN was created to comprehend the changing situation and
functioning of the human brain (Puri et al., 2016). It does not require
any prior knowledge of the ingredients, and its intricate structure repli-
cates the necessary procedure within the framework for modeling the
increase in potential LST. The ANN methodology is based on a multi-
layered perceptron (MLP) technique that generates automatic network
element choices for improved modeling. When a pattern is observed,
the algorithm analyzes the data and produces a statistic with arbitrarily
low precision. An automatic error function calculates the difference be-
tween the random output and the targeted output to obtain the required
value. The LST is simulated by ANN utilizing LULC parameters as the
hidden layer and the LST as the output layer.
RS data has previously proven useful in understanding the environ-
mental effects of land cover change and urbanization (Alawamy et al.,
2020; Moniruzzaman et al., 2020; Yuan, 2008). The use of RS optical
bands and RS derivative products from UHI research is becoming more
popular (Bailey JS and White PG, 1970; Kutser et al., 2020). These prod-
ucts, derived from RS, including NDVI, NDBI, LST, and LSE, are com-
monly used in UHI studies along with regular optical bands. The urban
thermal field variance index (UTFVI) is frequently used to quantify the
influence of urban heat islands (Tomlinson et al., 2011). UTFVI has a
major adverse effect on local wind patterns, humidity, and air quality,
as well as indirect economic loss, decreased comfort, and a rise in death
rate (Sejati et al., 2019). Rapid growth of urban area contributes as a sig-
nificant predominant component to the UHI effect. Predicting the effects
of future LULC, LST and UTFVI can be an effective approach to identify
the potential heat weave zones and ensure sustainable city environment
by taking essential steps (Kafy et al., 2020b; H. C. Wang et al., 2017).
This research explores the relationship between LULC change, sea-
sonal LST and UTFVI of the DMA areas over 20 years’ period using Land-

3
A.-A.-. Faisal, Abdulla - Al Kafy, A. Al Rakib et al.
Fig. 2. Weather averages of Dhaka city.
sat data. The LULC change was monitored through Landsat products
regular bands. Seasonal (summer & winter) LST and UTFVI were ob-
served through the Landsat thermal bands. Later, a discussion on the
spatial-temporal relationship between LST and LULC change and LST,
NDVI and NDBI led to sustainable urban planning. Finally, LULC, LST
and UTFVI were predicted for 2030 using the Artificial Neural Network-
based Cellular Automata (ANN–CA) algorithm.
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Study area
Dhaka is located between latitudes 23.58° N and 23.90° N, 90.33°
E and 90.50° E longitudes. Dhaka is by far the most populated city
in Bangladesh and one of the largest metropolises in South Asia
(Dewan et al., 2012; Swapan et al., 2017). Dhaka’s population, area,
and social and economic variety have risen enormously since its foun-
dation as the capital city. Dhaka, together with its river port of Narayan-
ganj, 10 miles (16 km) to the south, is now one of the country’s most
intensively industrialized districts. Because of economic, physical, ad-
ministrative, and employment opportunities, the population of this fast-
rising megacity is growing (Jahangir Alam, 2018). Dhaka City’s physi-
cal qualities are continually changing as open spaces and water bodies
are transformed into built-up regions as part of the urbanization pro-
cess (Ahmed et al., 2014; Kabir and Parolin, 2012; Kafy et al., 2021d;
SULTANA et al., 2009). The city’s streets, urban layout, open spaces,
environment housing, and numerous service sectors, as well as its social
and economic life, were all affected by the city’s massive population ex-
pansion (Ahmed et al., 2014). The DMA area is largely located on the
4
Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100192
Fig. 3. Workflow diagram of the study.
Madhupur Terrace, an alluvial terrace developed during the Pleistocene
epoch (Rashid et al., 2015; Towhida et al., 2006).
This area’s surface height spans from 1 to 14 m, with practically
average built-up portions ranging from 6 to 8 m heights. This town is
surrounded by four important water systems, which are Buriganga river,
Turag river, Tongi Khal, and Balu, respectively, in the south, west, north,
and east (Fig. 1) (Hasan et al., 2013; Islam et al., 2015). Because to its lo-
cation in the humid subtropical monsoon climate, this area receives ap-
proximately 2000 mm of rainfall every year. During the monsoon season
(July-October), monsoon rain accounts for more than 80% of their an-
nual rainfall (Ahasan et al., 2010). From late December to late January,
fog can be seen. Rivers that flow from the plain are alluvial rivers that
are nourished by groundwater. The average yearly rainfall is 114 mm
(BBS, 2017). The city’s average yearly temperature is 25 °Celsius, and
the monthly mean ranges from 18 °Celsius in January to 29 °Celsius
in August (Hasan and Rahman, 2013). According to Climate-Data.org,
the monthly average precipitation/rainfall, humidity, rainy days (d) and
average sun hours of Dhaka are stated in Fig. 2 (Climate, 2020).
2.2. Data description
Landsat series are primarily used in UHI analyses, as shown in
Table 1. Furthermore, Landsat data is available for free on the USGS
website (https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov). As a result, the researchers are
interested in assessing the LST and UHI using Landsat data (Guha et al.,
2018; Kafy et al., 2020a, 2020c; Liu and Zhang, 2011; Mehmood and
Butt, 2019) .The study used Landsat TM 5 data prior to 2013 and Land-
sat OLI 8 data after that. The images and the acquisition date are given
in Table 1. No image was found in April 2000, therefore, February image
A.-A.-. Faisal, Abdulla - Al Kafy, A. Al Rakib et al.
Table 3
Landsat calibration constants of thermal bands.
Constant Unit K1 in W/(m2 .sr. 𝜇m) Unit K2 in Kelvin
Landsat 5 TM 607.76 1260.56
Landsat8 TIRS (band002010) 774.8853 1321.0789
Landsat8 TIRS (band 11) 480.8883 1201.1442
was used, as an exception, only for 2000 summer data. Clouds can sub-
stantially impact LST data collected from Landsat images (Ermida et al.,
2020; Orhan et al., 2017; Wang et al., 2019). As a result, all of the
Landsat data used were collected with less than 10% cloud coverage
(Mansaray et al., 2021). For image processing and GIS operations, Ar-
cGIS 10.8, ERDAS 2014, and ENVI 5.3 were utilized (Bernardes et al.,
2020; Kotzbek, 2017). Portion Landsat calibration equation was re-
quired for recovering LST and UHI, and some of the calibration equation
was obtained from 8 handbooks.
2.3. Data pre-processing
Landsat’s satellite datasets for each year in Table 1 were used to iden-
tify the geographic distribution of LULC classes, estimate LST and UHI.
Data preparation was completed using ENVI 5.3 software. Fast Line-of-
sight Atmospheric Analysis of Hypercubes (FLAASH) atmospheric cor-
rection tool was used for Radiometric Correction of the images using
ENVI 5.3 software. Separate band images are layered and then com-
bined to form a multi-band image in Landsat TM and Landsat 8. All of
these datasets were converted to 30 m cell sizes and projected in the
same way at WGS 84/UTM zone 46 N. Landsat TM band 6 (thermal in-
frared band) and Landsat 8 band 10 and 11 (thermal infrared band) were
used to estimate terrestrial surface temperatures by converting Digital
Numbers (DNs) into radiance. The Normalized Vegetation Difference
Index (NDVI), in which bands were employed to construct vegetation
indexes within the spectral spectrum of solar reflections, was also ex-
amined in this study. Following the preprocessing phase, the satellite
images were used to investigate UTFVI with the use of ERDAS 2014 and
ArcGIS 10.8 software. The overall workflow of this study is described in
Fig. 3.
2.4. LULC classification
Image classification is a process in which LULC is classified into dif-
ferent classes using multispectral data. As a result, many scholars have
introduced several methodologies for supervised and unsupervised cat-
egorization processes. The pixels were allotted based on the maximum
probability class in the image classification process, and the supervised
classification scheme was employed when the Support Vector Machine
(SVM) classifier chose training units for image classification. The Im-
age classification was used to divide land use/land cover types into four
categories: water body, built-up area, vegetative cover, and bare land.
The supervised classifier SVM was used to classify the images in this
work. Because of its excellent accuracy, the authors chose the SVM clas-
sifier above other supervised classification methods (Faisal et al., 2021;
Kafy et al., 2021a). The classification procedure was carried out using
ENVI 5.3. The confusion matrix was also developed to accurately evalu-
ate the classified image and signature file, as defined by Lillesand et al.,
(2015). LULC schemes with descriptions, training and testing pixels dur-
ing SVM classification process are stated as below Table 2.
2.5. Accuracy of LULC data
To construct LULC maps, around 50 ground-based training samples
were generated for each LULC class. The accuracy of the classified maps
was determined by superimposing 250 Global Positioning System (GPS)
and 150 Google Earth image random sample ground truth data on top of
5
Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100192
them. The overall accuracy (Eq. (1)), user accuracy (Eq. (2)), producer
accuracy (Eq. (3)) and kappa statistics (Eq. (4)) were calculated for ac-
curacy assessment, which is one of the best quantitative procedures for
image classification accuracy (Kafy et al., 2021a; Rahman et al., 2018).
Over all accur acy
Total number of corrected classif ied pixelx (diagonal)
= ∗100 (1)
t otal number of r efer ence pixels
User Accuracy
number of correctly classif ied pixelxs in each catagory (diagonal)
= ∗100
t otal number of r efer ence pixels in each category (row total)
(2)
Producer Accuracy
number of correctly classif ied pixelxs in each category (diagonal)
= ∗100
t otal number of r efer ence pixels in each category (column total)
(3)
Kappa Coef f icient (T)
∑
Total number of Sample ∗ Total Number of Corrected Sample − (col.t ot ∗ row t ot )
= ∑ ∗100
(Total number of Sample)2 − (col.t ot ∗ row t ot )
(4)
2.6. Estimation of LST using landsat data
2.6.1. Sensor brightness temperature estimation (T)
First and foremost, a transition from infrared thermal band spectral
radiance to actual radiance sensor brightness temperature is required
(Pesta et al., 2015; Scheidt et al., 2018; Sobrino et al., 2004). Plank’s
function equation provides a solution to the above-mentioned dialog
Eq. 5.
C2
𝑇 = ( ) (5)
C1
(λi × ln 1 +
Li λi 5
Here, 𝐶1 = 1.19104356 × 10−16 W. m2 , 𝐶2 = 1.4387685 × 104 𝜇m.
K. The values of C1 and C2 are constants. Moreover, 𝑇 represents sen-
sor brightness temperature in kelvin, Li represents spectral radiance.
Besides, 𝜆 Represents the emitted radiance wavelength for optimal re-
sponse and average limiting wavelengths are 𝜆 = 11.5 𝜇m for Landsat 5
band data and 𝜆 = 10.9 𝜇m and 12 𝜇m for Landsat 8 bands 10 and 11,
respectively.
To convert Landsat data, a simplified equation was developed, and
the equation is given as Eq. (6) as follows.
𝐾2
𝑇 = ( ) (6)
𝑘1
ln 𝐿𝜆
+1
Here, K1 and K2 are calibration constants 1 in W/(m2 .sr. 𝜇m) and 2
in kelvin, respectively. Landsat thermal bands calibration constants are
shown in the following Table 3.
2.6.2. Retrieving the LST
The thermal infrared band is used to monitor top of atmosphere
(TOA) radiation. The TOA is made up of three energy components: ra-
diance emitted from the earth’s surface, radiance upwelling from the
atmosphere, and radiance downwelling from the sky (Harde, 2013;
Harries et al., 2008; Liang et al., 2019; C. H. Wang et al., 2017). The at-
mospheric condition is influenced by both TOA and brightness tempera-
ture (Dash, 2005; Duan et al., 2020; Han et al., 2017; Olioso et al., 2013;
Ren et al., 2015). Meanwhile, atmospheric influences such as upward
emission and downward surface irradiance reelection should be regu-
lated to achieve a proper surface brightness temperature (Kloog et al.,
A.-A.-. Faisal, Abdulla - Al Kafy, A. Al Rakib et al.
Table 4
Emissivity values with their corresponding NDVI values.
NDVI Spectral emissivity (Ɛ) of land surface
NDVI < −0.185 0.995
−0002E185 ≤ NDVI < 0.157 0.970
0.157 ≤ NDVI ≤ 0002E727 1.0094 + 0.047 ln (NDVI)
NDVI > 0.727 0.990
2018; Stephen et al., 2010). The above correction can be achieved by
calculating the land surface spectral emissivity. The chemical composi-
tion, constructed structure, water content, and roughness of the sur-
face all influence its emissivity. According to several studies, NDVI
is closely linked to surface emissivity, hence emissivity can be deter-
mined using NDVI (Chen and Zhang, 2017; Dash, 2005; Guha and
Govil, 2021; Ren et al., 2017; S et al., 2016; Sekertekin and Bona-
foni, 2020; Sobrino et al., 2001). Table 4 illustrates the land surface
emissivity values in relation to their respective NDVI values.
NDVI can be measured using the reflectance values of the Visible and
Near Infrared (NIR) bands mentioned in Eq. 7.
BNIR − BRED
NDVI =
BNIR + BRED
Where, BNIR , BRED are the pixel values of Near Infrared and Red
bands. The land surface emissivity (Ɛ) can be estimated using the NDVI
value with the help of table 3. The following Eq. (8) measures the ter-
restrial surface temperatures adjusted for spectral emissivity (Ɛ).
𝑇𝑖
LST = ( )
𝑇𝑖
1+ 𝜆× 𝜌
× ln(𝜀)
Here, LST represents Land Surface Temperature and 𝑇𝑖 represents
the sensor’s brightness temperature. The emitted radiance’s wavelength
indicates as 𝜆 and Ɛ indicates the spectral emissivity of the land surface.
In addition, 𝜌 = ℎ𝑐 ∕𝜎 = 1.438×10−2 mk, where h indicates Plank’s
constant which is equal to 6.626×10−34 Js, c shows the velocity of light
equal to 2.998×108 ms−2 and 𝜎 is the Boltzmann constant (5.67×10−8
Wm2 k−4 = 1.38 × 10−23 JK−1 .
2.7. Estimation of UTFVI
LULC change is influenced by urbanization, and this is the primary
driver of UHI (Nuissl and Siedentop, 2021). The traditional way of de-
termining the UHI effect is to compare temperatures in an urban re-
gion with the surrounding area (Hu and Jia, 2010; Magli et al., 2015;
Tzavali et al., 2015). In the realm of urban climate and environmental
change, the influence of UHI has become a hot topic. Various approaches
have been used in various parts of the world to calculate the size and
size of UHI (Abulibdeh, 2021; Hadjimitsis, 2013; Kim and Brown, 2021;
Li et al., 2019). In the UHI study, the advancement of RS technology
has shown to be a useful tool. Using multi-temporal infrared RS data,
UHI can be continuously monitored and assessed (Bokaie et al., 2019;
El-Hattab et al., 2018). These data can aid in the mapping of huge ar-
eas in particular, rather than measuring magnitude (A Adeline Ngie
et al., 2014; Adeline A Ngie et al., 2014). UHI is closely related to LULC
and the geographic distribution of vegetation intensity (Karakuş, 2019;
Khamchiangta and Dhakal, 2020; Liu et al., 2020; Pramanik and Pu-
nia, 2020; Zhao et al., 2009). Using remotely sensed data, the surface
heat island intensity is evaluated independently in urban and rural loca-
tions, and the selected pixels are analyzed in this context (Dewan et al.,
2021b; Keeratikasikorn and Bonafoni, 2018; Naserikia et al., 2019). The
stations and defined pixels are heavily used in this assessment.
Due to the seasonal variation within a year, the LST is compared
and, in that regard, a normalized method is adopted. This follows in
Eq. (9) (Ahmed et al., 2013).
Ts − Tm
UHI =
SD
Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100192
Where: Ts = Land Surface Temperature (LST)
Tm = Mean of the LST
SD = Standard deviation
The UHI effect takes into account the socioeconomic parameter and
defines the Urban Thermal Field Variance Index (UTFVI) quantitatively.
The UTFVI was computed with Eq. (10) (S. Ahmed, 2018).
Ts − Tm
UTFVI = (10)
Ts
2.8. Estimation of NDBI
The built-up area of NDBI is quite important for this study. It was
recently employed as a tool for determining the size of built-up re-
gions (Hidayati et al., 2018) as because the NDBI and LST have such
a close relationship, a comparison of the two is critical (Macarof and
Statescu, 2017). The impervious layers rise as the built-up area grows,
resulting in a higher LST. The NDBI addresses built-up components;
hence the NDBI-LST relation indicates the impact of the built-up re-
gion on the ultimate surface temperature increase (Ishola et al., 2016;
Lu et al., 2015; Varshney, 2013). The Eq. (11) below is used to analyze
the NDBI of the study zone.
(7) BMIR − BNIR
NDBI = . (11)
BMIR + BNIR
Where 𝐵𝑀 𝐼 𝑅 and 𝐵𝑁 𝐼 𝑅 are the middle infrared pixel values and
the pixel values of near-infrared bands accordingly. The NDBI index is
ranged from −1 to +1. The data was used to correlate between built-up
areas and LST, whereas the analysis indicates the extent and contribu-
(8) tion of the built-up regions to LST.
2.9. Simulation of seasonal LST and UTFVI using ANN-CA algorithm
With the MOLUSE Plugin in QGIS 2.18, the LST is commonly fore-
casted using an artificial neural network (ANN) until 2030 (Alam et al.,
2021; Nugroho et al., 2018). ANN is a useful method for forecasting fu-
ture time series LST and LULC using data from past years (Faisal et al.,
2021; Fattah et al., 2021; Imran and Mehmood, 2020; Koehler and Kuen-
zer, 2020; I. I. Maduako et al., 2016; I. D. I.D. Maduako et al., 2016;
Mustafa et al., 2020; Nanjing et al., 2020). LST simulation was carried
out in this work employing LULC images, NDVI, NDBI, latitude and lon-
gitude as input parameters and LST output parameters (Ramaiah et al.,
2020). Furthermore, for the prediction of LULC, road layer, NDBI, and
NDVI data were set as input parameters in the ANN–CA model. In ArcGIS
software V10.8, the pixel value data of the images has been converted to
better performance of the model. The LST prediction model architecture
is shown in Fig. 4.
3. Result and discussions
3.1. Analysis of LULC change
From 2000 to 2020, the changing trend in LULC classes was derived
from Landsat images using the SVM method, as shown in Fig. 5. In
Table 6, the classification accuracy of the classified LULC maps were
evaluated using Kappa statistics, user accuracy, producer accuracy, and
overall classification accuracy. For the years 2000, 2010, and 2020,
the overall classification accuracy was 85.82%, 86.23%, and 88.23%,
respectively, indicating strong accuracy agreement (Congalton and
Green, 2008; Pontius Jr and Millones, 2011).
Two significant shifting trends in LULC classes were clearly visible
(Fig. 5). One is an incredible increase in urban areas and another is a
significant drop in vegetation and bare lands. In the last 20 years, ur-
ban areas were raised from 26.32% (80.22 km2 ) in 2000 to 36.41%
(110.98 km2 ) in 2010, and further soaring to 46.84% (142.75 km2 ) in
2020, while vegetative land were decreased from 28.14% (85.78 km2 )
(9) in 2000 to 24.83% (75.69 km2 ) in 2010, and to 22.42% (68.34 km2 )
6
A.-A.-. Faisal, Abdulla - Al Kafy, A. Al Rakib et al. Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100192

Fig. 4. ANN–CA model architecture. Source: (Kafy et al., 2020c).

Fig. 5. Distribution of LULC classes in the study area a) 2000, b) 2010, and c) 2020.

Table 5
Areal distribution of different LULC classes in the study area from 2000 to 2020.

LULC Area (in sqkm) Net change (in%) Overall Change (in%)

2000 2010 2020 2000 - 2010 2010 - 2020 2000 - 2020

Water Body 31.52 24.73 20.54 −2.23 −1.37 −3.60 −2.40

Urban Area 80.22 110.98 142.75 10.09 10.42 20.52 13.68
Vegetation 85.78 75.69 68.34 −3.31 −2.41 −5.72 −3.81
Bare Land 107.27 93.38 73.15 −4.56 −6.64 −11.19 −7.46

Table 6
Accuracy assessment of classified maps.

Year User Accuracy (%) Producer Accuracy (%) Overall Classification Overall Kappa
Accuracy (%) Statistics

Water Body Urban area Vegetation Bare land Water body Urban area Vegetation Bare land

2000 88.03 82.36 85.71 82.85 87.22 83.74 82.84 81.25 85.82 0.8432
2010 86.53 83.56 80.64 91.75 88.12 86.43 85.82 89.85 86.23 0.84235
2020 85.55 87.03 85.82 89.85 88.12 91.25 80.64 91.75 88.23 0.8512

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A.-A.-. Faisal, Abdulla - Al Kafy, A. Al Rakib et al.
Fig. 6. Summer LST distribution in the study area a) 2000, b) 2010, and c) 2020.
in 2020 (Table 5). The net change of LULC classes shows that the only
variable that increased significantly in the last 20 years was urban areas
(+20.52%), while vegetation, bare land, and water bodies were all de-
creased significantly with net changes of −5.72%, −11.19%, and −3.6%,
respectively, from 2000 to 2020.
Various variables, however, are to blame for the rise in Dhaka’s ur-
ban regions. The study region is located near the geographical center of
Bangladesh on the eastern bank of the Buriganga River, rendering it a
financially viable zone (Ahmed et al., 2013). The city is currently one
of Bangladesh’s most intensively industrialized areas and home to the
headquarters of a number of global corporations. According to a recent
report, Dhaka attracts three out of every five migrants, accounting for
59.2% of all migrants from Bangladesh’s rural areas (Al Amin, 2018).
Apart from its burgeoning population, Dhaka is Bangladesh’s financial,
commercial, and entertainment center, accounting for up to 35% of the
country’s GDP (Karim, 2019). Dhaka has been a central component for
economic and cultural growth given its growing contribution to the
national economy. As a result, the city area has grown dramatically
in recent decades to accommodate the city’s ever-growing population
(Dewan and Yamaguchi, 2009, 2008; Islam, 2005). The variables gen-
erate a drastic LULC shift and have a detrimental influence on the LST
in various seasons, as indicated above, and this will be explored in the
latter part of this section.
3.2. Variation of seasonal LST in the study area
Landsat thermal bands were used to determine the areal distribution
of LST trends in summer seasons from 2000 to 2020 (Fig. 6). The color
tone blueish to reddish indicates lower to higher temperatures of the
study area for all the years. In the year 2000, greater temperatures were
observed in the city’s central to southern areas, which were expanded
beyond from 2010 to 2020. By 2020, significant patches of reddish areas
emerged i.e., rapid LST change occurred in the north to north-eastern
parts of the capital. The results showed a + 22.37% net change in the
amount of area with surface temperature >32 °C, whilst areas with sur-
face temperature less than 23 °C reduced by a staggering −32.20%, from
2000 to 2020 (Fig. 8).
8
Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100192
Table 7 shows the LST areal distribution throughout the summer
season (2000, 2010, and 2020) in six distinct temperature zones. The
findings indicated that in summer 2000, four temperature zones (20 -
<23 °C, 23 °C - <26 °C, 26 °C - <29 °C, and 29 °C - <32 °C) encompassed
the majority of the study area. No region was detected in the highest
temperature zone (≥ 32 °C) during the summer of 2000. Meanwhile,
in summer of 2010 and 2020, no area was recorded with temperatures
less than 23 °C, but 12.79% (38.99 km2 ) and 24.34% (74.18 km2 ) of
area were observed in the highest temperature zone of ≥ 32 °C. 35.88%
(109.37 km2 ) and 28.19% (85.91 km2 ) area were recorded in the zone
of 26 °C - <29 °C and 29 °C - <32 °C in year 2010, whereas 27.16%
(82.77 km2 ) and 36.82% (112.21 km2 ) area were observed in the year
2020. The projected result revealed that in the study area, a lower tem-
perature zone was recorded in 2000 and was transformed into a higher
temperature zone between 2010 and 2020.
LST distribution maps in the winter season for years 2000, 2010, and
2020 are also demonstrated in Fig. 7. The results showed that area in
the <20 °C zone was plunged from 52.7% (160.59 km2 ) to staggering
23.15% (70.57 km2 ) and 0% by 2010 and 2020 respectively. On the
other hand, area within the 29 °C- <32 °C zone was soared from 0%
in 2000 to 20.43% (62.27 km2 ) in 2010 and 36.14% (110.16 km2 ) in
2020, although no area was recorded in the highest temperature zone (≥
33 °C) (Fig. 9). The distribution of winter LST in different temperature
zones during the years 2000, 2010, and 2020 are shown in Table 7. It is
evident from the findings that the temperature of winter LST was lower
than that of summer LST. As the sun’s rays contact the earth at a low
angle during the winter season, such rays are more evenly dispersed and
reduce the amount of heat that reaches every given spot in the earth’s
environment.
3.3. Variation of seasonal UTFVI in the study area
The degree of thermal comfort present in the environment is how UT-
FVI characterizes the quality of urban health and ecology. Figs 10 and
11 illustrate the threshold values of the summer and winter UTFVI dis-
tributions for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020.
In the summer of 2000, 44.19% (134.69 km2 ) of the area had a mod-
erate UTFVI effect, with 23.72% (72.28 km2 ), 17.28% (52.66 km2 ),
A.-A.-. Faisal, Abdulla - Al Kafy, A. Al Rakib et al. Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100192

Table 7
Areal distribution of seasonal LST in the study area from 2000 to 2020.

LST (in °C) Area (in km2 ) Net Change (in%) Overall Change (in%)

Summer Season Winter Season Summer Season Winter Season Summer Season Winter Season

2000 2010 2020 2000 2010 2020 2000 - 2010 2010 - 2020 2000 - 2020 2000 - 2010 2010 - 2020 2000 - 2020

<20 0.00 0.00 0.00 160.59 70.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 −25.93 −23.89 −49.83 0.00 −33.22
20 - <23 95.67 0.00 0.00 85.22 63.92 47.31 −32.20 0.00 −32.20 −4.80 −6.22 −11.02 −21.46 −7.35
23 - <26 83.44 70.51 35.62 36.14 43.63 59.62 −2.96 −10.38 −13.34 −0.94 6.11 5.17 −8.89 3.45
26 - <29 79.32 109.37 82.77 22.83 64.39 87.69 9.62 −7.43 2.19 11.92 7.15 19.07 1.46 12.71
29 - <32 46.35 85.91 112.21 0.00 62.27 110.16 12.31 8.66 20.97 19.76 16.85 36.61 13.98 24.41
≥ 32 0.00 38.99 74.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.22 9.15 22.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.91 0.00

Fig. 7. Winter LST distribution in the study area a) 2000, b) 2010, and c) 2020.

Fig. 8. Distribution of Summer LST in the

study area during 2000 - 2020.

9
A.-A.-. Faisal, Abdulla - Al Kafy, A. Al Rakib et al.
Fig. 10. Summer UTFVI distribution in the study area a) 2000, b) 2010, and c) 2020.
and 11.06% (33.71 km2 ) of the area having a strong, stronger, and
strongest effect, respectively. Moderate UTFVI effect was declined to
20.12% (61.33 km2 ) in 2010, and further plunged to a mere 4.65%
(14.22 km2 ) by 2020, indicating a 39.53% net decrease within a pe-
riod of 20 years. Similar decreasing trend was evident in weak and no
effect regions also, with net decrease of 2.06% and 0.91% respectively
by 2020. On the other hand, strong, stronger and strongest effects were
all demonstrated significantly upward trend within the study period. By
2010, areas with strong UTFVI effect was encompassed one-third of the
total study area, and further increased to 36.32% (110.69 km2 ) by 2020.
Similarly, stronger and strongest effect areas were soared respectively
to 24.48% (74.61 km2 ) and 20.12% (61.31 km2 ) by 2010, and 31.77%
(96.82 km2 ) and 24.46% (80.66 km2 ) by 2020 (Table 8).
10
Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100192
Fig. 9. Distribution of Winter LST in the study
area during 2000 - 2020.
In the winter season (2000 to 2020), the depletion of no UTFVI ef-
fect and weak UTFVI effect areas were more prominent. Within the
study period, both no and weak effect areas were suffered a net de-
crease of 24.61% and 34.95%, respectively. No effect areas was plunged
from 25.38% (77.34 km2 ) in 2000 to 4.49% (13.67 km2 ) in 2010,
and only 0.76% (2.32 km2 ) in 2020, similar to how weak effect ar-
eas was declined to 5.53% (16.87 km2 ) in 2010 and 2.88% (8.77 km2 )
in 2020 from 37.82% (115.28 km2 ) in 2010. Moderate UTFVI areas in
winter was somewhat unchanged during the study period, as they in-
creased by 28.38% during 2000–2010, followed by an almost equiva-
lent decline of 29.59% during the next decade. Meanwhile, more alarm-
ingly, strong, stronger and strongest effect areas were all experienced a
23.68%, 28.63% and 8.46% net increase in their territory respectively.
A.-A.-. Faisal, Abdulla - Al Kafy, A. Al Rakib et al. Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100192

Fig. 11. Winter UTFVI distribution in the study area a) 2000, b) 2010, and c) 2020.

Table 8
Areal distribution of seasonal UTFVI in the study area from 2000 to 2020.

LST (in °C) Area (in km2 ) Net Change (in%) Overall Change (in%)

Summer Season Winter Season Summer Season Winter Season Summer Season Winter Season

2000 2010 2020 2000 2010 2020 2000 - 2010 2010 - 2020 2000 - 2020 2000 - 2010 2010 - 2020 2000 - 2020

None 3.59 1.72 0.82 77.34 13.67 2.32 −0.61 −0.30 −0.91 −20.89 −3.72 −24.61 −0.61 −16.41
Weak 7.85 2.97 1.57 115.28 16.87 8.77 −1.60 −0.46 −2.06 −32.29 −2.66 −34.95 −1.37 −23.30
Middle 134.69 61.33 14.22 56.38 142.87 52.69 −24.07 −15.46 −39.53 +28.38 −29.59 −1.21 −26.35 −0.81
Strong 72.28 102.84 110.69 26.11 83.92 98.29 +10.03 +2.58 +12.60 +18.97 +4.71 +23.68 +8.40 +15.79
Stronger 52.66 74.61 96.82 15.72 25.87 102.99 +7.20 +7.29 +14.49 +3.33 +25.30 +28.63 +9.66 +19.09
Strongest 33.71 61.31 80.66 13.95 21.58 39.72 +9.06 +6.35 +15.40 +2.50 +5.95 +8.46 +10.27 +5.64

The seasonal UTFVI distribution shows that , none and weak UTFVI
zones have shrunk in a drastic way over the years throughout Dhaka
city, while strong, stronger, and strongest areas were considerably ex-
panded. The best thermal condition for a living is none and weak effect
of UTFVI, while the strongest zone represents a vulnerable environment
susceptible to higher UHI phenomenon. The findings from the seasonal
UTFVI analysis thus emphasizes the gradual degradation of the city’s
habitability.
3.4. Relationship among LST, NDVI and NDBI
Bidirectional radiation of urban built characters (surfaces,
roads, buildings etc.) most likely respond to LULC characteristics
(Feizizadeh and Blaschke, 2013a). One of the prime causes for thriving
pressure on the natural resources and excessive increase of surface
temperature is the current population of the globe, which directly
effects LULC characteristics. (Feizizadeh and Blaschke, 2013b). LST rise
has always been keeping an impact on creation of UHIs (Faisal et al.,
2021). LULC change observation is a key role in detecting the regional
climate dynamics (Laux et al., 2017). The development of UHI statistics
largely depends on LULC change which is considered as a parameter to
measure any uncontrolled or unwanted urban development vulnerable
to ecology (Kafy et al., 2021d). The temperature of a city differs
at its’ different points, indicating the highest at the centers of the
urban regions and found less in the outlying parts occurring UHIs
(Abutaleb et al., 2015).
However, both land use and land cover data are required for the as-
sessment of LST. Sequentially, two more indices play an eminent role in
determining UHIs and they are NDVI and NDBI. There lies a mathemat-
ical relation between LST and these two values. NDBI value is propor-
tionate and NDVI value is disproportionate to LST values (Guha et al.,
2018). This is quite easily understandable as the values of NDVI ranges
from dense to sparse vegetation and often bare land. Dense vegetated
areas give higher values of NDVI in spatio-temporal analysis. Therefore,
the higher the vegetation, the less is the temperature. Hence, LST is
negatively proportionate to NDVI. Similarly, this negative correlation
of NDVI and LST is directly related to the derivation of UHIs. Another
reason can be stated as the greenery (plants and trees) are usually ab-
sorbers and evaporators. They discharge water as vapor which results
to heat trapping (Kikon et al., 2016). Multiple analyses to factualize the
correlations have been done throughout the study by the authors. The
relationship between affecting LULC indices and LST is described as fol-
lows.
Around 300 points were randomly selected from LST, NDBI and
NDVI data for 2020 to assess the correlation analysis. The p-value for
every correlation analysis was less than 0.05, which indicates that the
validation procedures was statistically significant. LST’s positive rela-
tion with NDBI and negative relation with NDVI are stated in Fig 12.
In the analysis of LST with NDVI and NDBI during all the three study

11
A.-A.-. Faisal, Abdulla - Al Kafy, A. Al Rakib et al. Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100192

Fig. 12. Correlation among LST with NDVI and NDBI in the year (a) 2000, (b) 2010, and (c) 2020.

Table 9 After 10 years, in the event of the year 2010, the unit change be-
Correlation coefficient among LST, NDVI, tween LST and NDVI were decreased as more lack of vegetation was
and NDBI of the study area. observed. Here, 1 unit of LST was fluctuated under only 0.68 units de-
Year 2000 LST NDVI NDBI crease of NDVI. On the other hand, rise in only 0.66 units of NDBI caused
a unit change in LST. This correlation brings to the conclusion that, less
LST 1
NDVI −0.61 1
change of NDVI and NDBI was bringing huge change to the value of
NDBI 0.63 −0.846 1 LST. The results show that, rapid reduction of greeneries and escala-
Year 2010 LST NDVI NDBI tion of built-up areas were bringing huge change in surface temperature
LST 1 by this time as they correlate between each other by having a value of
NDVI −0.68 1
−0.901, indicating stonger negative correlation than 2000.
NDBI 0.66 −0.901 1
Year 2020 LST NDVI NDBI In the case of 2020, 20 years later, the relation between the above
LST 1 three variables show frequent results. The quick shift between vegetated
NDVI −0.72 1 area and built-up urban areas were affecting the LST more vulnerably
NDBI 0.79 −0.935 1
at the present year. 1 unit of LST changes was depending on only 0.72
numeric downshift of NDVI and 0.79 uprise of NDBI. When NDBI and
NDVI was put for a comparison, the correlation coefficient showed a
periods (2000, 2010 and 2020), the R2 values have showed strong cor- value of −0.935, which depicts 1 unit of NDVI value was negatively
relation. In the field of environmental analysis, the standard for inter- related with 0.935 units decrease of NDBI value, having the strongest
preting a strong correlation is nearer to 1. Both the variables give values negative correlation during the study period.
more than and tending to 0.9. Therefore, a good correlation is observed
consecutively in all the time periods as the trendline fits the data. 3.5. Association of different LULC and LST
The Fig. 12 is displayed to show a regression analysis with the 3 vari-
ables discussed (LST, NDVI and NDBI). Table 9 is represented to show The earth surface includes different types of land covers such as
how does the correlation coefficient, indicated the extent of ascendancy buildings, industrial areas, paved surfaces, wooded trees, bare soil and
for one factor to another factor. wetlands (river, canal, pond etc.). All these surface elements emit radia-
In the event of the year 2000, it has been seen that, 1 unit change of tive energy which can be traced by LST through RS technology. In order
LST was dependent on 0.61 units change of NDVI negatively, as stated to associate LULC with LST, two cross sections were drawn throughout
before. In addition, 1 unit change of LST was dependent on 0.63 units the study region and the average LST of each form of LULC was shown
of positive change of NDBI. The intercept value for NDVI with LST was in the Fig. 13 below. Because of the higher concentration of LST values
−0.61 and NDBI with LST was 0.63. If NDVI and NDBI was analyzed for in the southern and eastern zones, two cross-sections (AA/ , BB/ ) have
a comparison, the correlation was strongly negative and valued −0.846 been made in a southeast direction (Fig 13).
indicating to the fact that, built-up areas were increasing by reducing The findings show that, the core urban area which has the most of
greenery of the study area. the built areas, was experienced LST near to 34 °C in 2000, LST > 35

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A.-A.-. Faisal, Abdulla - Al Kafy, A. Al Rakib et al. Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100192

Fig. 13. Association of LST with different

land cover/use in the year of (a) 2000, (b)
2010 and (c) 2020.

13
A.-A.-. Faisal, Abdulla - Al Kafy, A. Al Rakib et al.
°C in 2010 and > 37 °C in 2020 respectively. Also, for the bare land
category, high LST was recorded > 30 °C, > 34 °C and > 35 °C in four
different year cross-sections. Rest of the two land uses categories, water
and vegetation, showed the lowest temperature ranging from < 22 °C -
< 32 °C.
3.6. Simulation of future LULC for year 2030
In the forecasting of LULC conversion for the study areas in 2030, the
CA-ANN method was applied (Fig 14). Making use of the projected LULC
maps of 2020 using past 2000 and 2010 data, the model was verified
through accuracy assessment and finally the model was used to project
LULC for the year 2030. The model was accurate in forecasting future
LULC patterns once a constant rate of LULC change was attained. The CA
model was validated using two different platforms: TerrSet and QGIS.
Both tools give outstanding predicting outcomes for the future LULC
transition.
According to the QGIS validation, the percentage (%) of precision
and total Kappa value were 91.01 and 0.88, respectively. In the TerrSet,
the kappa parameters, i.e., K-location, K-no, K-location Strata, and K-
standard values were 0.91, 0.90, 0.92, and 0.88, respectively (Table 10).
14
Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100192
Fig. 14. Simulated LULC classes for 2030.
The computed kappa values and percentage (%) of precision values were
adequate for forecasting future LULC maps at the accuracy level.
The predicted LULC changes for the year 2030 was compared with
changes in the year 2020 and it is found that around 29% of the study
area will be developed in the year 2030. As a result there will be signif-
icant decrease in the vegetated and bare land areas. Approximately 8%
of vegetated and bare land areas of the study areas will be converted
into urban area in the year 2030. The highest positive net change from
2000 to 2030 was estimated in urban areas (+29.113) while the neg-
ative changes was estimated for vegetation (−10.091) and bare land
(−14.732) areas (Table 11).
The study indicates that the DMA has seen considerable LULC
changes between 2020 and 2030. The forecasting results showed a sig-
nificant rise in urban areas and a decrease in green coverings. Unplanned
growth in urban areas may also raise surface temperatures, which might
have a harmful impact on the ecology and wildlife.
3.7. Simulation of future seasonal LST scenario for year 2030
The estimation of seasonal (summer and winter) LST in the study
area were changed significantly between 2000 and 2020. As a result,
A.-A.-. Faisal, Abdulla - Al Kafy, A. Al Rakib et al. Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100192

Table 10
Validation of LULC simulation image using CA model for the year 2020.

Prediction Year CA model validation for LULC prediction using two modules
2020 Kappa Parameters of IDRISI Selva Land Change module QGIS-MULUSCE Plugin module

K-location K-no K-location Strata K-standard %-correctness Overall Kappa Value

0.91 0.90 0.92 0.88 91.01 0.88

Table 11
Changes in LULC classes from 2000 to 2030.

LULC 2040 Net Change (in%) Overall Change (in%)

Area (in sqkm) Area (in%) 2000 - 2030 2010 - 2030 2020 - 2030

Water Body 19.57 6.42 −3.92 −1.69 −0.32 −1.98

Urban Area 158.62 52.04 25.72 15.63 5.21 15.52
Vegetation 58.92 19.33 −8.81 −5.50 −3.09 −5.80
Bare Land 67.67 22.20 −12.99 −8.44 −1.80 −7.74

Fig. 15. Simulated a) summer and b) winter LST distribution for year 2030 in the study area.

forecasting future seasonal LST trends is crucial to detect likely effect of Table 12
climate change and ecosystems in the study area. The ANN algorithm Validation of the simulated seasonal LST for the year 2020.
was used to estimate future seasonal LST for the years 2030 and 2040 Prediction Year ANN model Validation for LST simulation using MATLAB software
by analyzing past LST patterns (Fig. 15). A significant level of agree- No of hidden layer RMSE R
ment was found between projected and observed LST for the year 2020,
Summer 2020 5 0.576 0.89
indicating the precision of the ANN model prediction. The RMSE and R Winter 2020 5 0.664 0.85
values for the summer and winter seasons were 0.576 & 0.664 and 0.89
& 0.85, respectively (Table 12), demonstrating a significant connection
among measured and anticipated seasonal LST. Fig 15(a) & (b) show the
increasing trend of summer and winter LST throughout the study area In the forecasted summer LST of 2030, roughly 37.77% and 38.50%
in 2030. Surface and air temperatures are strongly inversely related. As of the study area will be in the high-temperature zone (>32 °C and 29 °C -
a result, the rising trend in LST will have an immediate effect on air <32 °C respectively), whereas just 7.07% will be in the low-temperature
temperature. zone (23 - 26 °C). Additionally, Fig. 15(b) represents the winter LST,

15
A.-A.-. Faisal, Abdulla - Al Kafy, A. Al Rakib et al. Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100192

Table 13
Changes in seasonal LST from 2000 to 2030.

LST (in °C) Predicted Scenario of 2030 Net Change (in%) Overall Change (in%)

Area (in sqkm) Area (in%) Summer Winter

Summer Winter Summer Winter 2000 - 2030 2010 - 2030 2020 - 2030 2000 - 2030 2010 - 2030 2020 - 2030 Summer Winter

<20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 −52.69 −23.15 0.00 0.00 −25.28
20 - <23 0.00 11.37 0.00 3.73 −31.39 0.00 0.00 −24.23 −17.24 −11.79 −10.46 −17.75
23 - <26 21.54 29.52 7.07 9.69 −20.31 −16.07 −4.62 −2.17 −4.63 −9.88 −13.67 −5.56
26 - <29 50.78 66.97 16.66 21.97 −9.36 −19.22 −10.50 14.48 0.85 −6.80 −13.03 2.84
29 - <32 117.34 134.28 38.50 44.06 23.29 10.31 1.68 44.06 23.63 7.91 11.76 25.20
≥ 32 115.12 62.64 37.77 20.55 37.77 24.98 13.43 20.55 20.55 20.55 25.39 20.55

Table 14
Validation of the predicted seasonal UTFVI for the year 2020.

Prediction Year ANN model Validation for UTFVI simulation using MATLAB software

No of hidden layer RMSE R

Summer 2020 7 0.624 0.86

Winter 2020 7 0.601 0.87

Table 15
Changes in seasonal UTFVI from 2010 to 2030.

LST (in °C) Predicted Scenario of 2030 Net Change (in%) Overall Change (in%)

Area (in sqkm) Area (in%) Summer Winter

Summer Winter Summer Winter 2000 - 2030 2010 - 2030 2020 - 2030 2000 - 2030 2010 - 2030 2020 - 2030 Summer Winter

None 0.39 0.57 0.13 0.19 −1.05 −0.44 −0.14 −25.19 −4.30 −0.57 −0.54 −10.02
Weak 1.42 3.82 0.47 1.25 −2.11 −0.51 −0.05 −36.57 −4.28 −1.62 −0.89 −14.16
Middle 6.54 22.34 2.15 7.33 −42.05 −17.98 −2.52 −11.17 −39.55 −9.96 −20.85 −20.22
Strong 76.79 67.92 25.20 22.28 1.48 −8.55 −11.12 13.72 −5.25 −9.96 −6.06 −0.50
Stronger 88.92 117.46 29.18 38.54 11.90 4.70 −2.59 33.38 30.05 4.75 4.67 22.73
Strongest 130.72 92.67 42.89 30.41 31.83 22.77 16.42 25.83 23.32 17.37 23.68 22.18

which, like the expected summer LST, reveals an increasing tendency
for the year 2030. In 2030, 44.06% and 20.55% of the study area will
be in the high-temperature zone (29 - <32 °C and >32 °C respectively),
whereas 3.73% and 9.69% will be in the 20 - 23 °C and 23 - 26 °C ranges
(low temperature zones) respectively (Table 13). Winter LST will have
a lower temperature than summer LST since the sun’s rays reached the
ground at a lower angle during the winter season. These rays are more
evenly spread, lowering the amount of heat that reaches any given lo-
cation in the earth’s environment. During the winter season, the longer
lengths of nights and short days keep the study location from being over-
heated. The overall effect of high population growth and increased de-
velopment activity was accountable for this sharp rise in LST. The rising
LST trend hastens the effects of UHI, reducing urban health and progress
toward sustainable development.
(Table 15). The seasonal UTFVI distribution showed that none, weak,
middle and strong UTFVI areas will be reduced while stronger, and
strongest areas will be dramatically expanded. Because the optimal ther-
mal conditions for living are none and UTFVI has a weak influence, the
strongest zone symbolizes sensitive scenes for the environment affected
by greater UHI phenomena.
UTFVI is highly influenced by UHI, which is among the most con-
ventional ways to monitor how the world is changing because of human
influences. The city is becoming increasingly concerned about the ex-
cessive UHI effect. The UHI effect is determined by the geometry of the
metropolis, and the unplanned development of Dhaka City contribut-
ing to the catastrophic impact of temperature rise. Increased vegetation
because of planned town growth can mitigate the effects of UHI and
provide a healthy and livable city living.

3.8. Simulation of future seasonal UTFVI scenario for year 2030

The prior increasing trends of seasonal UTFVI highlight the signifi-
cance of forthcoming UTFVI projection in identifying the potential fu-
ture UHI influence in the study area (Fig. 16). The ANN model was used
to forecast future periodic UTFVI distributions. The precision of the pro-
jection was evaluated by the RMSE and R values between the projected
and measured UTFVI distributions for the year 2020. The RMSE and R
values for the summer and winter seasons were 0.624 & 0.601 and 0.86
& 0.87, respectively (Table 14).
According to the predicted values, the largest proportion of UT-
FVI will be produced in urban areas, with a lower concentration in
green regions. With a reduction in none to intermediate effects, the ef-
fects of strong to strongest UTFVI will be amplified significantly. The
stronger UTFVI effect will likely be raised by 16.43% in summer 2030,
respectively, while the stronger and strongest UTFVI will be raised by
4.75% and 17.38% will be observed in winter 2030, compared to 2020
4. Conclusion
UHI is an important indicator for assessing the thermal state and
environmental impact of rapidly developed areas. The authors’ primary
goal in this study was to monitor the UTFVI, LULC, and LST of the Dhaka
Metropolitan Area and make related predictions using machine-learning
algorithms using RS satellite imagery. This study paper includes a sim-
ulative scenario for the parameters utilized, as well as remarks on plan-
ning views for urban policymakers. A cross-linked analysis between LST
and UTFVI was performed in LULC categories. During the three study
periods (2000, 2010, and 2020), since green cover has dropped dra-
matically, average temperatures have risen significantly across all LULC
classes. The CA-ANN algorithm was used to predict potential LULC; LST
and UTFVI trends for summer and winter seasons in 2030. The con-
siderable increase in LST and UTVFI directly effects the environmen-
tal consequences of the city, as well as indirectly as a result of vegeta-

16
A.-A.-. Faisal, Abdulla - Al Kafy, A. Al Rakib et al.
Fig. 16. Simulated a) summer and b) winter UTFVI distribution for year 2030 in the study area.
tion encroachment, as shown by the authors’ relationship of LST, NDVI
and NDBI.
Between 2000 and 2020, the data indicated that urban areas experi-
enced a significant net change (+20.52%), while vegetation, bare land,
and water bodies all experienced net changes of −5.72%, −11.19%, and
−3.6%, respectively. According to predicted LSTs, summer and winter
temperatures in the highest temperature group (more than 35 °C) will
increase by 13% and 20%, respectively, from 2020 to 2030. Addition-
ally, projected UTFVI indicated that around 72% (up from 58 percent in
2020) and 69% (up from 47% in 2020) of total area will be covered by
stronger and stronger UTFVI zones, respectively, in 2030. Correlation
study revealed a statistically significant association (p value < 0.05) be-
tween LST and NDBI, but a strong and negative relationship with NDVI.
All of the maps were examined for accuracy and demonstrated a high
degree of estimation, with kappa values more than 80%.
Presumably, the majority of the effect will be produced in urban
areas with sparsely distributed green areas. However, final results sug-
gest that, a significant area of the city will be swamped by high tem-
peratures within the expected date, endangering the UTFVI effect. The
study’s findings will assist urban planning authorities’ and decision-
makers about the proper placement of LULC around the city. The right
distribution of LULC based on spatial analysis will shield the megacity
from the destructive consequences of climate change by mitigating the
UHI effect.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest concerning the article.
17
Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100192
Acknowledgement
The authors would like express their gratitude to the United States
Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Explorer for providing the Landsat
archives. Additionally, the authors are thankful to the Dynamic Insti-
tute of Geospatial Observation Network (DIGON) Research Team for
their extensive guidelines and proofreading for revising the manuscript.
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