ECON 321 INTRODUCTION TO STATISTICS BAYBARS KARACAOVALI

PROBLEM SET 8: SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS

1. A mail-order discount outlet for running shoes has found that 20% of the orders sent to
new customers end up being returned for refund or exchange because of size or fit
problems experienced by the customer. The 100-member Connor County Jogging Society
has just found out about this mail-order source and each member has ordered a pair of
running shoes. The group-orders manager of the mail-order firm has promised the club a
15% discount on its next order if 10 or more of the pairs ordered must be returned
because of size or fit problems. What is the probability that the club will get 15% off on
its next order?

2. Based on past experience, a telemarketing firm has found that calls to prospective
customers take an average of 2.0 minutes, with a standard deviation of 1.5 minutes. The
distribution is positively skewed, since persons who actually become customers require
more of the caller’s time than those who are not home, who simply hang up, or who say
they’re not interested. Albert has been given a quota of 220 calls for tomorrow, and he
works an 8-hour day. Assuming that his list represents a simple random sample of those
persons who could be called, what is the probability that Albert will meet or exceed his
quota?

3. In performing research on extrasensory perception, researchers sometimes place two

individuals in different locations, then have person A (the “sender”) view each item in a
series of stimuli while person B (the “receiver”) tries to correctly identify the image
person A is viewing. In carrying out such a study, a researcher enlists the help of Amy
and Donald as volunteers to “send” and “receive”, respectively. The researcher randomly
shows Amy one of two pictures-either a sunny sky or stormy sky- and this procedure is
carried out for a total of 200 exposures at 20-second intervals. If Donald is simply
guessing, he will tend to be correct 50% of the time. In this particular study, Donald was
successful in 108 out of 200 attempts to identify which picture Amy was viewing. If
someone has absolutely no extrasensory capabilities and is simply guessing, what is the
probability of guessing correctly on at least 108 out of 200 attempts? Given the
probability you’ve calculated, would you suggest that Donald drop his plan to list himself
in the yellow pages as a psychic phenomenon?

4. The reading speed of second grade students is approximately normal, with the mean of
90 words per minute (wpm) and a standard deviation of 10 wpm.
a. What is the probability a randomly selected second grade student will read more than
95 words per minute?
b. What is the probability that a random sample of 12 second grade students results in a
mean reading rate of more than 95 words per minute?
c. What is the probability that a random sample of 24 second grade students results in a
mean reading rate of more than 95 words per minute?
d. What effect does increasing the sample size have on the probability (if you compare
your results in parts b and c)?
e. A teacher instituted a new reading program at school. After 10 weeks in the program, it

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was found that the mean reading speed of a random sample of 20 second grade students
was 92.8 wpm. What might you conclude based on this result? Is this result unusual? Is
the new program more effective?
f. There is a 5% chance that the mean reading speed of a random sample of 20 second
grade students will exceed what value?

5. The most famous geyser in the world, Old Faithful in Yellowstone National Park, has a
mean time between eruptions of 85 minutes. If the interval of time between eruptions is
normally distributed with standard deviation 21.25 minutes, answer the following
questions:
a. What is the probability that a randomly selected time interval between eruptions is
longer than 95 minutes?
b. What is the probability that a random sample of 20 time intervals between eruptions
has a mean longer than 95 minutes?
c. What is the probability that a random sample of 30 time intervals between eruptions
has a mean longer than 95 minutes?
d. What effect does increasing the sample size have on the probability (if you compare
your results in parts b and c)?
e. What might you conclude if a random sample of 30 time intervals between eruptions
has a mean longer than 95 minutes?
f. On a certain day, suppose there are 22 time intervals for Old Faithful. Treating these 22
eruptions as a random sample, the likelihood the mean length of time between eruptions
exceeds ___________ minutes is 0.20.

6. According to a study done by the Pew Research Center, 39% of adult Americans
believe that marriage is now obsolete (Hint: This indicates π = 0.39).
a. Suppose a random sample of 500 adult Americans is asked whether marriage is
obsolete. Describe the sampling distribution of p, the (sample) proportion of adult
Americans who believe marriage is obsolete.
b. What is the probability that in a random sample of 500 adult Americans less than 38%
believe that marriage is obsolete?
c. What is the probability that in a random sample of 500 adult Americans between 40%
and 45% believe that marriage is obsolete?
d. Would it be unusual for a random sample of 500 adult Americans to result in 210 or
more who believe marriage is obsolete?

7. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 10% of adults 25 years and older in the United
States had advanced degrees in 2009. A researcher with the U.S. Department of
Education surveys 500 randomly selected adults 25 years of age or older and finds that 60
of them have an advanced degree. Explain why this is not necessarily evidence that the
proportion of adults 25 years of age or older with advanced degrees has increased.

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8. The chairman of a statistics department in a certain college believes that 70% of the
department’s graduate assistantships are given to international students. A random
sample of 50 graduate assistants is taken. (Hint: Assume that the chairman is correct so
that π = 0.70.)
a. What is the sampling distribution of the sample proportion p? Explain.
b. Find the expected value and the standard error of the sampling distribution of p.
c. What is the probability that the sample proportion p will be between 0.65 and 0.73?
d. What is the probability that the sample proportion p will be within ± 0.05 of the
population proportion, π?

9. The manufacturer of a quartz travel alarm clock claims that, on the average, its clocks
deviate from perfect time by 30 seconds per month, with a standard deviation of 10
seconds. Engineers from a consumer magazine purchase 40 of the clocks and find that the
average clock in the sample deviated from perfect accuracy by 34 seconds in one month.
a. If the manufacturer’s claim is correct, what is the probability that the average deviation
from perfect accuracy would be 34 seconds or more?
b. Based on your answer to part (a), speculate on the possibility that the manufacturer’s
claim might not be correct.

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