28/09/2021

PROBABILITY & ITS LAWS

BINOMIAL AND NORMAL
DISTRIBUTIONS
Dr. Muhammad Atique Ur Rehman Siddique

Assistant Professor

YIPS

PROBABILITY

 Probability is a measure of the likeliness

that an event will occur.
 A probability of ‘0’ mean that an event
can be never occurred.
 A probability of ‘1’ mean that an event
will always occur

1
 28/09/2021

SUBJECTIVE APPROACH

 Personal feelings on the basis of

experiments with some familiar
situations of knowledge
 It reflects a persons opinion or best
guess
 Important in medical field as
physician’s have sometime to make
opinion about a patient of specific
disease will survive or not.

OBJECTIVE APPROACH


2
 28/09/2021

RELATIVE FREQUENCY DEFINITION

Terminologies used in
Probability
 Trial: A single instance/performance
of an experiment is called a trial,
e.g., A coin toss, a dice is rolled,
etc.
 Experiment: A set of trials is called
experiment.
 Outcome: The result of a single trial
or an experiment is called outcome.

3
 28/09/2021

 Sample Space (SS): The set of all

possible outcomes is called sample
space.
Example: Let a dice is rolled then the
set of all possible outcomes will be:
SS = {1,2,3,4,5,6}

4
 28/09/2021

Practice
 A spinner is divided into 5 equal
sectors of different colours. When the
spinner is spun, the colour of the
sector on which the pointer lands is
noted. Write down the sample space
and state the total number of possible
outcomes.

5
 28/09/2021

EVENT
 Events: An outcome selected from
sample space meeting some specific
condition is called an event in other
words an event is a subset of
sample space.
Example: We are looking for the
probability of all possible even
number outcomes for a dice roll then
our event would be
E={2,4,6}

EXPLANATION OF EVENT
 The following are the some events
which we may come across in our
everyday life.
1. The sun will rise from the west
every day.
2. Your friend will win the lottery
3. It will rain in Pakistan at least once
a year.
4. Planes crash every day.
5. Cow gives milk everyday.

6
 28/09/2021

impossible unlikely 50 / 50 likely certain

0 0.5 1
impossible certain

TYPES OF AN EVENT
1).Mutually exclusive events: Two events A and B are said
to be mutually exclusive if they can not occur
simultaneously.
Example: Let there are eight cards numbered 1 to 8 and
placed in a box. A card is drawn at random.
1. Let A be the event of drawing a card with a prime
number.
2. Let B be the event of drawing a card with a multiple
of 4.
3. Let C be the event of drawing a card with an odd
number.
The favourable outcomes of event A are: {1, 3, 5, 7} &
P(A)= 4/8= 1/2
__________
The favourable outcomes of event B are: {4, 8} &
2/8= 1/4
P(B)=___________
The favourable outcomes of event C are: {1, 3, 5, 7} &
P(C)=___________
4/8= 1/2
Mutually Exclusive and A & C are Not
A & B are ________________ mutually exclusive
______________

7
 28/09/2021

Mutually exclusive events law

8
 28/09/2021

5). Independent events: Two events are

independent events if the chance of one of
them occurring does not affect the chance
of the other event occurring. E.g A 2
outcome of the dice does not affect the next
outcome.
6). Conditional events: The events that
depend on the previous outcome are called
conditional or dependant events. E.g., the
chances of old person to get sick are more
than a young person.

9
 28/09/2021

Random Experiment
 We often come across with certain situations
when we repeat experiment and it produces
different results, e.g., measuring the blood
pressure (random variable) of the patient or
general flipping a coin (random variable).
 Then the experiment that produces different
results under the same conditions are called
random experiments and the variables involved
are called random variables.

Probability Rules

Multiplicatio
Addition
Bayes’ Rule n
Rule
Rule

Mutually
Independent
Exclusive

Not Mutually
Dependent
Exclusive

M. Ateeq

10
 28/09/2021

Rules of Probability


and

11
 28/09/2021

Examples
Example-1:What is probability of getting even
numbers when you throw a dice?
SS={1, 2, 3, 4 ,5, 6}
E={2, 4, 6}
m=3
Example-2:A bag contains 6 white and 9 black
balls what is probability of drawing a black ball?
SS={6 White, 9 Black}
Example-3:A mixture contains 6 mint, 4 toffees
and 3 chocolates. Find probability of a mint, a
toffee
and a chocolate.

Example-4: A coin is tossed twice. Find the

probability when;
i). Both are head
ii). Both are tail
iii). 1 head and 1 tail
iv). At least 1 head
v). At least 1 tail (at least mean minimum one tail
but can be more)
Note: If there is ‘at most 1 tail’ then this means that
the maximum one tail i.e., not more than one tail

Answers: i). ¼ ii). ¼ iii). ½ iv). ¾ v). ¾

12
 28/09/2021

Example-5: A dice is rolled twice. Find the probability

when ;
i. Both are same numbers
ii. One is even and other is odd
iii. Both are different numbers
iv. Both are divisible by 3
v. Different of 2 number is 0
vi. Difference of two number is 1 or -1
vii. Sum of two numbers is 9

Answers: i). 1/6 ii). 18/36 iii). 30/36 iv ). 4/36

v). 6/36 vi). 10/36 vii). 4/36

13
 28/09/2021

Example-6: A coin is tossed twice. Make the sample

space and find the probabilities when;
i. 3 heads
ii. No head
iii. At least one head
iv. 2 heads and 1 tail
v. 2 tails and 1 head

Answers: i). 1/8 ii). 1/8 iii). 7/8 iv). 3/8

v). 3/8

Example-7: A dice is rolled twice. Find the

probability when;
i. Both are same number
ii. Both are different numbers
iii. Sum is 9
iv. Difference is 3 or -3
v. Difference is zero

Answers: i). 6/36 ii). 30/36 iii). 4/36

iv). 6/36 v). 6/36

14
 28/09/2021

Card Probability
13 spades ♠ + 3 picture cards + 1 Ace
13 hearts ♥ + 3 picture cards + 1 Ace
13 diamonds ♦ + 3 picture cards + 1 Ace
13 clubs ♣ + 3 picture cards + 1 Ace

Total red cards ----------------------------26

Total black cards --------------------------26
Total Picture cards------------------------12
All total --------52

15
 28/09/2021

Following are the probabilities

i. Diamond 13/52
ii. Heart 13/52
iii. King of Diamond 1/52
iv. Picture cards 12/52
v. Aces 4/52
vi. Queens 4/52
vii. Black cards 26/52
viii. Red cards 26/52

Assignment #4

Chapter #6
1). page #107 examples to page #110
2). Page #112 examples to page #114
3). Page #119 examples to page #121

16