Coronavirus explained: What are the chances I will die?

How do I avoid
it? Is it all a big fuss over nothing? World experts answer your questions

How do you catch this virus?

Covid-19 seems to spread much like flu, through coughs and sneezes.
Once contracted, it lives and replicates in the tissues that line the
airways. Secretions from these tissues – mucus and saliva – therefore
also contain the virus. When an infected person coughs, sneezes, or
simply talks, tiny droplets of moisture are expelled into the air, carrying
the virus out of the body. Unless you are directly in the firing line, you
should be safe. Droplets travel only up to 7ft.

But another risk comes when people cover their cough or sneeze with
their hand and then touch something other people touch, such as a door
knob or tap. Touch a contaminated surface, then touch your own mouth
or nose, and the virus can be transmitted. The World Health
Organisation (WHO) says the coronavirus can live on surfaces for several
days.

Could I die if I get it?

It depends to some extent on how old you are. Covid-19 barely even
causes symptoms in children, even babies, and in China is not known to
have caused any deaths in under-tens. The main concern with children is
that if they catch the virus they may pass it on to older at-risk
individuals. According to the most recent data from the China Centre for
Disease Control, death rates are 0.2 to 0.4 per cent between the ages of
ten and 50, but then start climbing.

You have a 1.3 per cent chance of dying from it in your 50s, a 3.6 per
cent risk in your 60s, an eight per cent risk in your 70s, and a 14.8 per
cent risk in your 80s. Risk climbs with age because older people more
often have other diseases, such as cancer or conditions such as high
blood pressure, diabetes or pulmonary disease, which worsen Covid-19.

I have a horrible cold – could it be coronavirus?

Symptoms of Covid-19 are not like those of a cold: it causes a fever, a

cough and trouble breathing, not a runny nose or congestion. Most
cases appear to be mild.

If it’s mild, could I have the virus and not know it?

The short answer is yes. Although at present only those who have been
in contact with people known to be infected or who have been to a high-
risk area (a full list of these locations comes later) should ask about
being tested. It takes from two to 14 days after being infected by the
virus to show symptoms – the average is five days. Chinese scientists say
80 per cent of all cases are quite mild. Some victims have barely any
symptoms at all, so if you get sick you might not realise it’s Covid-19.
Worryingly, it seems to be possible for people to spread it before they
start showing symptoms – or even if they never do. Scientists at the
Guangdong Centre for Disease Control and Prevention in China found
one Covid-19 patient who showed no symptoms but had as much virus
in his nose as people who had symptoms.

There have been these outbreaks before, like SARS, and we got
through it. Do we really need to worry now?

Experts have urged the public not to panic – however, people are being
advised to stay informed. SARS infected more than 8,000 people and
killed nearly 800 in 29 countries in less than a year. It went away
because it spread poorly among people, and only after symptoms
started. There was also a massive global campaign, led by the WHO, to
isolate people who had been exposed.

‘It took a lot of hard work,’ says David Heymann of the London School of
Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who led that campaign at the WHO.
‘And we were lucky.’ SARS never invaded any developing countries
which might have had trouble organising the surveillance and isolation
required. This coronavirus spreads more readily, and has already
infected more than ten times as many people, on all continents.

But really, don’t more people die each year from falling down stairs
than will be killed by coronavirus?

More people do die in a year falling on stairs in the UK – 787 last year –
than die of HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, which killed 428. Few would
argue that HIV is trivial, or not something to avoid. At present, it is
believed that one per cent of Covid-19 cases die. But this makes it as
deadly as the 1918 ‘Spanish’ flu – one of the worst pandemics known,
thought to have killed up to 50million worldwide.

Should I wear a mask in public?

No. Studies show they do not really protect you from being infected.
Some think it makes you touch your face less, but others report it makes
you do it more. The only reason to wear a mask in public is if you think
you are infected – to protect others.

I think I’ve been exposed, but I feel fine. What should I do?

Do not go to a clinic or the doctor’s without calling first. If you have the
virus, you could infect more vulnerable people. The current official
advice is this: if you have visited Hubei province in China in the past 14
days, or Iran, northern Italy and the Daegu and Cheongdo areas of South
Korea since February 19, call NHS 111 – even if you do not have
symptoms. You may well be asked to self-isolate for 14 days. If there is a
risk that you may be infected, other family members or close contacts
may also need to be contacted and questioned.

How do I isolate myself?

Public Health England says stay home for 14 days. It means not going to
work or school – employers and school heads should be informed.

Do not go to public areas such as parks or shops and public transport or

use taxis. Avoid having visitors, and ask friends, family or delivery
services to get the shopping – and put it down outside, where you can
pick it up. If you share a home with others, and they have not been
advised to self-isolate, then stay in a separate, well-ventilated room. If
you share a bathroom, use it after other people, use separate towels –
and then clean it.

Isn’t staying home for two weeks a bit extreme?

Self-isolation for two weeks may be an unpleasant prospect. But it is

absolutely vital, aimed at stopping the virus from getting loose and
circulating generally, whereupon there will be far more cases, and it will
be harder to protect the vulnerable, such as the elderly.

I’ve read that there’s no vaccine for this virus. Will a flu jab protect
me?

Scientists are racing to come up with a vaccine or an antiviral drug for

Covid-19, and some are now being tested, in record time. But there is
currently no specific treatment, as it is an entirely new virus.
Realistically, it’s not going to be available until next year.